Good morning! I just opened the site to see that there was an incredible conversation yesterday over the new manager. Thank you all for participating. My goal is to read through all 193 comments, take each of the managers mentioned, and make a few posts about them including data (where available) and analysis. I don’t fool myself into thinking that the club will read my post. I write for you, the fans (and myself because I have to).
I also want to point you all to my stats preview over on Arseblog News. I trust that you can navigate there yourself. I don’t like hyperlinks. They are distracting.
The main take from that article is that I’m optimistic about this match and this tie. I think these are two evenly matched teams, believe it or not, and this could be a very close contest.
Following on that theme of “hey, maybe this Arsenal side aren’t as bad as everyone thinks” when I was looking at the data I was struck by how incredibly good Arsenal are at home.
Here’s a screen grab of the League table for just home matches. (via WhoScored.com)
Arsenal are 2nd and most of the other teams have a game (or two) in hand. Manchester United’s next home game is against Arsenal and Mourinho loves a 0-0 draw, so I don’t expect movement in this table. Still, even if Arsenal drop to third on the list, their goals for record is incredible. 49 goals in 18 home matches is 10 more than last season, 18 more than the season prior, and 8 more than 2014/15.
49 goals for is the second best home return in Wenger’s 22 year career. The best home season was 04/05 when Arsenal scored 54 goals at home. That season Arsenal won 44 points at home. Arsenal already have 44 points in home games and if we win our last home game against Burnley we should have 47.
97/98 – 43 and 10
00/01 – 45 and 13
01/02 – 42 and 25
02/03 – 47 and 20
03/04 – 40 and 14
04/05 – 54 and 19
The underlying stats show that Arsenal’s home form is pretty close to what we would expect from the shots that they have taken. Expected goals for 45, expected goals against 24. So, we are playing at +8 over 18 matches at home.
People say that Arsenal need an overhaul, that we need to fire everyone. I’m one of those people. I think we need a new keeper (Cech has been in decline for two years now), several new defenders (Koscielny is done, Mustafi is not very good, Monreal is 32), and at least one or two midfielders (we have needed a Cazorla replacement for years and of course everyone wants a DM). But I wonder if the team just needs a few small injections rather than a complete overhaul in order to compete next season?
On our home form, you have to say that this isn’t a terrible Arsenal team.
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