538 forecast: 38% chance of a Liverpool win, 39% chance of an Arsenal win, partly cloudy with a chance of sun.
Tim’s forecast: 50% chance of a Liverpool win, 25% chance of an Arsenal win, rain very likely, chance of hail, wear many layers and bring an umbrella.
Liverpool at Anfield, with Klopp’s job sort of on the line is one of the 2nd biggest high pressure ridges we’ve seen this season. Liverpool have only lost one match at home this season, a 1-2 shocker against Leeds under Jesse Marsch. Liverpool have also scored 16 of their home goals in just two matches, a 9-0 thumping of Bournemouth and a 7-0 hiding for Man U. This suggests an incredibly tough team to beat at home and one which can shred teams if they aren’t careful with their defensive spacing.
Arsenal are another high pressure front, however, and have the best record in the League in away games and have only two losses in away matches all season: a shocking performance by Arsenal against Everton, and a shocking performance by the referees at Old Trafford. That said, Arsenal’s away record (in the League) against Klopp’s Liverpool has featured a blizzard of goals for the Scousers nearly every time:
Liverpool 4-0 Arsenal, Nov. 2021
Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal, Sept. 2020
Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal, Aug. 2019
Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal, Dec. 2018
Liverpool 4-0 Arsenal, Aug. 2017
Liverpool 3-1 Arsenal, Mar. 2017
Liverpool 3-3 Arsenal, Jan. 2016
Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal, Dec. 2014
Liverpool 5-1 Arsenal, Feb. 2014
Liverpool 0-2 Arsenal, Sept. 2012
Liverpool 1-2 Arsenal, Mar. 2012
Since 2017, Liverpool at home against Arsenal has been nothing short of a category five hurricane – utter destruction for Arsenal: 22 goals for Liverpool, 4 for Arsenal.
Just to underline how difficult it is for Arsenal to get points away at Anfield. I was lucky enough to go to the March 2012 match. It took a double save by Szczesny off a Kuyt penalty (won with an obvious dive by Luis Suarez who was under investigation for and would be later found guilty of committing a racism), and a last minute scorcher by Robin van Persie (assisted by Alex Dimitri Song Billong) for Arsenal to pull off a win. That Liverpool side were also a huge mess with King Kenny coaching them and that thug Charlie Adam pulling the strings in midfield. That March 2012 match will also be memorable for Mikel Arteta: it was the game where Jordan Henderson sent him to the hospital with concussion when he viciously elbowed Arteta (off ball) and the Arsenal midfielder had to be stretchered off.
Liverpool’s high pressure system has, however, been found out a bit lately. Klopp’s pressing system used to morph and change depending on the opponent – with triggers for pressure changing and throwing opponents curve balls. But Manchester City deployed some ingenious spacing against Liverpool in their last outing and exposed the Liverpool press as quite static (ht to Carlon Carpenter (data analyst for Houston Dynamo) on Twitter). I wonder if this is caused by Liverpool’s recent turnover in forwards? Not that they are incapable of doing the work but rather that they need time to learn the system. Either way, be certain that Arteta and Klopp both will watch the film from that match and prepare their teams accordingly.
This is a real test for Arsenal’s press resistance and counter attacking. We’ve looked very good lately but there are two teams who are the best at high pressing: Liverpool and Man City. And we have to beat both of them to win the League.
The title for Arsenal this year goes through Liverpool and Man City. We must get results against those two teams to take it outright, otherwise it’s not really in our hands. I suggest bunkering in and waiting out their inevitable storm, and when there are any slight rays of sun: make a break for it.
When two high pressure systems collide, there’s a very good chance of rain. And with fronts developing from both north and south, there could even be hail. Be prepared for anything, wear multiple layers, carry an umbrella, bring galoshes.
Expect that one of these teams will leave unhappy.
Well written forecast. The fluctuating patterns of the season make the current models unpredictable. To weather what may develop as a storm at Anfield (given what happened to them on the weekend), likely means that we will have to play out of skins for a result there, and I’m not optimistic that we can do that.
“Stormy weather
Just can’t get my poor self together” – Ella Fitzgerald
This one is a tough one to read for me. It would certainly be useful to have Saliba’s speed back, but hard to tell how likely that is.
Beyond that, yes, our record at Anfield has been painfully bad in recent years. I’ve dreaded going to the pub to watch with my Liverpool supporting friend.
But they do have a mid-week match against Chelsea, who are going to be pretty desparate themselves. So we should be more rested. And our away record has been pretty good. And our midfield and wings are much better than their opposites. So I’m feeling a little more positive than your forecast.
On an unrelated nerdy note, since I know you like scif/fantasy Tim, I’d recommend the D&D movie, which I saw last night. It’s a good action comedy and has the right amount of insider references for D&D fans.
I would like medium drizzle (a 1-1 draw) and scurrying home under the umbrella of a 7 point lead!
Arsenal should play for a draw but I guess that’s not in our nature- it’s going to be a slugfest.
This young team doesn’t suffer the weight of our Anfield demons the same way we do. We hadn’t won in 7 years at Spurs and we dispatched them handily. They don’t feel the jinx. This Liverpool side are very vulnerable at the back. They can score goals but they don’t keep them out. The are worn down, old and have little motivation. Scratching and clawing just to get back to CL isn’t the same as playing for the title for this bunch. Our legs are too young and strong for them. The big challenge will be whether we can leave healthy after this match.
Man I really hope you’re right. Was I wearing my pessimists hat? Probably.
The pessimism has been fed into our veins for a long time! If Pool look anything like they did today, we’ll smash ’em. Of course, they rested their starters but I don’t see them being able to control the ball with that midfield. If they nick an early goal off a counter then we’re in trouble, but I think the boys are chomping at the bit for this one.
This whole forecast theme reminded me of an old joke about women’s logic. The same question about chances of meeting a dinosaur on your way to work was asked to multiple men and then women. Most men replied with “one in a billion” kind of thing where perhaps some frozen dinosaur egg survived, and then hatched, etc, etc, etc… In contrast, most women replied with “50/50 percent chance… you either run into a dinosaur, or you don’t”. Sound logic, if I may add. With that said (and keep in mind that I’m not a woman), I’m going to predict that we will either win the game against Liverpool or we won’t. Boom!
ha!
Stopped into one of my locals for a late, late lunch. They had Chelsea v. Liverpool on and it was like watching paint dry.
This is so like Liverpool of old, look so bad a game before playing a mid table team, only to play amazing and fight like crazy playing at home against a big team
Huh. Makes me think of some of the Arsenal teams of old too.
Their midfield is an ageing shambles, Van Dijk is no longer as dominant as he was. If there ever was a time to make a statement win over a former PL and CL winning team, this is it.
Win this, and Arsenal takes over the baton of Pool’s challenger-in-chief role to Man City.
Lose. Meh. We go again!
loved that goal van persie scored against liverpool…what a volley. big up to alex song as well. late in games, he just knew how to find the goal scorers. he played an identical ball to van persie late in a game against everton, which rvp rightfully dispatched. the audacious outside the foot volley that eduardo scored was assisted by song. who could forget the homecoming goal henry scored late to secure a victory (against southampton???). song just knew how to get the ball to the goal scorers when arsenal needed a goal. lastly, his ability to deliver an inch-perfect ball at the critical moment was top notch.
you’re absolutely right when you mention how liverpool have been affected by their turnover in the front line. the mane-firmino-salah front line was formidable. strangely enough, i always felt mane and salah never liked each other but they knew how to best support one another. since mane’s departure, salah has yet to develop that chemistry with any of the new liverpool strikers. likewise, firmino was the brilliant catalyst that allowed his african colleagues to play the best football of their careers. since firmino’s reduced role, that front line doesn’t function the same. it was simply ignored last year because jota scored so many goals. darwin nunez hasn’t hit the ground running and gapko is not a center forward. however, the biggest tell is the front line doesn’t defend as well.
i’ve always lauded both the strategy and work rate of the liverpool strikers when defending. since mane’s departure, they don’t defend the same. maybe it was mane’s defensive effort that pressured salah into defending more. it’s hard to visualize salah as a lazy defender but i haven’t seen much in the good defending department from him this season. we’ll see on sunday.
liverpool’s biggest problem is defending in general. fullbacks are supposed to be a team’s best defenders but the liverpool fullbacks are trash defenders. martinelli is going to own trent, just like he does every time they play. liverpool are going to try and minimize the threat of martinelli with midfielders and the arsenal midfield should have a good day. we’ll see.
if firmino starts, i’ll worry. he’s so much better a center forward than anyone liverpool has; far smarter than the dutch guy, who’s more of a wide man than center forward. firmino only has 12 starts this season but he’s contributed with 8 goals and 4 assists. likewise, he makes everyone else around him better. once again, we’ll see.
You were right on, Joshuad, +1.
I knew it in my bones that, at 2-1 at Anfield, it was just too close to get all 3 points. Huge props to Ramsey who brought home the point in the end.
Play the match, not the occasion.
I’m been fortunate enough to play some really big gigs in my life and I tried and often succeeded in training myself to think of it as just another show, no matter the occasion.
Got my 🎸,got my tunings, get out there and do what I do and leave it all out there so there are no regrets.
We can absolutely do this.
Thought jorginho should have been brought on for odegaard.
And Tierney sooner for Zinch. It’s not as if he’s useless in attack. In fact he’s probably better if you’re in counterattacking mode as he’s faster.
Good point, hanging on to 2-0 at Anfield with 60 to go was always going to be difficult. Didn’t see anyone “lose focus”, they were all operating at 120% – there’s a high chance things get frisky at that intensity. Another great game in an incredible season.