The first week back from the World Cup started on Monday (Boxing Day, named after the day that everyone in England is required to learn boxing so that they can survive all the barroom brawls they will get into over their lifetime) with Brentford’s 2-2 draw with Spurs and culminated in a comfortable win for Man City over Leeds United. Here is a breakdown (of the games, not mental, that comes later in the season).
Spurs got off to their customary slow start to a match, conceding two goals to Brentford before realizing that they are supposedly in a title race and deciding to play some football. Brentford scored both goals off set plays which is something the club have actively sought to improve on using data and analysis. This just once again shows the importance of analytics in football. Tottenham started the comeback when Harry Kane shoved Ben Mee to the ground to win a header and completed the draw when Hojbjerg scored a second. Spurs now find themselves 10 points off Arsenal with a game in hand and with Son Heung-Min in his worst form since 2012 (when he played for Hamburgers in the Bundesliga) will hope that the league will continue to let Harry Kane get away with shoving players in the back to score open headers in order to finish top 6 this season.
Manchester United closed the gap on Spurs to one point (with a game in hand) with a comfortable win over Nottingham Forest. Manchester United look much improved since they had the ugly carbuncle removed from their ass, big surprise. In another Big Surprise, Casemiro looks like a class player, even if Graeme Sourness didn’t think that the three time La Liga winner and 4 time Champions League winner was good enough to cut it in the Premier League. When are we getting rid of these deranged dinosaurs and getting in some new, younger, more energetic deranged dinosaurs? Anyway, I watched this match and Forest looked like they had one foot on the beach in the 10th minute. They looked like a team overawed by an opponent.
Wolves grabbed a last-minute winner over Everton, piling more pressure on Frank Lampard as Everton are now one point off the drop zone with their next match against Man City (away). Begging the question: which Championship team will Frank Lampard be coaching in the new year? Where’s Derby this year?
Brighton moved up to 7th in the League after a win over Southampton. It was a bit of a scrappy contest with an own goal (for Brighton) and a penalty (for Southampton). Brighton have Arsenal next and are a bit of an Arsenal Bogey Team with a 5-3-3 record in all competitions since returning to the Premier League in 2017. This is a big test for Arsenal on Saturday, in the late match.
Newcastle beat Leicester solidifying their claim to be “spoken about in terms of the top four race”. You do have to admit that Eddie Howe is doing a great job at both playing guys like Almiron in a way that maximizes their ability, and at whitewashing the ownership’s criminal human rights and modern slavery record.
An aside here. At this point I think there are now 7 teams vying for top 4: Arsenal, Man City, Spurs, and Man U are the front runners with Liverpool and Chelsea (5-6 points behind Spurs with a game in hand) round the outside. If you want to be strictly statistical about it (based solely off this season’s table) you would add Brighton to that mix. So, 7 to 8 teams in the race for top four. There are also only 11 points between 2nd and 8th, meaning that this is going to be one hell of a battle. I don’t think there’s any shame for any of the teams (other than Arsenal and Man City) to finish 5th this season. My prediction for top four, right now, is Arsenal, Man City, Newcastle, and Man U. I reserve the right to revise this as the season unfolds. Now back to the football…
Liverpool beat Villa 3-1, Chelsea beat Bournemouth 2-0, and Man City beat Leicester 3-1. I watched a minute or two of the Man City match and here’s my report: they are the most boring team to watch on the planet right now because they are so predictable and they are so good at what they do that it doesn’t matter that they are predictable. They literally walk up to teams and say “this is how we are going to beat you” and then just do it. I am aware that they have lost two games this season and that they have yet to face the Mighty Mighty Arsenal so maybe I’m just being negative but they are seriously a machine. Not just a machine. They are a machine that makes other machines. Or maybe an AI that designs machines to be made by other machines.
That said, I’m starting to come around to the idea that this is Arsenal’s title to win or lose. Just think of it this way: Man City have averaged just under 90 points per season over the last 4 years and are currently on pace to get 89.6 points this season. Arsenal currently have 40 points and to get to 90 points, will need 50 points from the final 23 matches. That’s a pace that’s slightly better than Newcastle United. If Arsenal play as well as Newcastle have so far this season, they will finish on 87 points. This is how close these margins are right now! However, currently Arsenal are on pace to get 101 points. I don’t think that’s realistic because to keep up that pace, we need to win at least 19 of our last 23 matches. 91 points, however, isn’t unrealistic and could win the League. With City on 35 points, to get to 92 pointe they will need to average 2.5 ppg for the remainder of the season. Not impossible but outside of their average for every year since their 100 point season. Even if you disagree that this is Arsenal’s title to win, you have to admit that this is a two horse race this season.
That’s all for this week. I’ll be back Monday with thoughts on the Brighton match.
That’s a typical Pep Guardiola team. Metronomic passing, possession based, and overloaded with expensive talent.
At Barca, Messi brought something different though. He had no real position because he was Messi and he just did Messi magic. This Man City team are Xavi/Iniesta/Busquets without Messi. Haland is not.Messi. He’s what CR7 might have been at Camp Nou instead of the Bernabeu.
Comment about Haaland is really interesting. Would Ronaldo instead of Messi in that team have made it less successful? Probably?
Is Haaland a bit of a Poldi, in that he scores more goals when he plays but the team is worse? (That was a criticism I heard back in the day). A number of ways to test this, but lazily there’s two things I just looked at.
1. Are they scoring more goals this season because of Haaland? Or are the goals just being concentrated with one player? Both, but it does look like the former. They’re around 2.9 goals a game scored this season, whereas over the last few seasons it’s closer to 2.6.
2. Is he making them a worse defensive team? Also maybe. I haven’t watched them too much, but purely from numbers they’re conceding exactly 1 goal per game this season, but over the last few seasons it’s closer to 0.8. small margins, small sample this year, easily skewed by one or two results. And maybe Haaland has nothing to do with that, maybe their actual defenders have just not been as good. But… Maybe?
No thoughts on the West Ham game?
The title charge is interesting. So much rests on the fitness of our key players, and theirs. We have to go for it, no question. What makes me most worried is that we still have to play Spurs away, City home and away, Liverpool away and Newcastle home and away.
(Dog head tilt) I gave them on the 27th… I think there were like 1000 words on it.
Yeah and I commented on that with another 1000 words. I’m hilarious. You might think I have well formed thoughts but really I struggle with early dementia.
I like *dog head tilt*, very evocative!
Speaking of well formed thoughts, I’ve been thinking about the comments and discussion re: Mudryk. I concluded I really don’t have the faintest clue of what I’m talking about and should therefore just keep my trap shut.
Nooooo! I agreed wholeheartedly with you on Mudryk!
That’s nice to hear Steve, thank you for posting. Sometimes I feel like I’m on an island.
I haven’t changed my mind but I do want to be humble and admit my ignorance such as it is.
I don’t think Arsenal will pay as far over the odds as the papers say. We have no urgency to do this deal now and lots of leverage with the player himself being so committed to us and no other credible buyers. We can play the long game. They are hoping to drag it out and lure other bidders, but chances are they’ll fold for a reasonable enough offer by the end of the window once they see that we are the only serious bidder.
I think your observations weren’t terribly far off.
So you think Kvaradona would actually be a good fit for our team? Just conceptually, there’s no noise but you seem to like him.
Do* not so. Not presuming, apologies.
Now THAT is a great question. I’d have to think about it:
Let’s say we get a stroke of luck and Kvara is suddenly available at a good price and only wants to come to Arsenal. Taking him means a pretty major change to everything at the club because he needs to be the focal point of any team. This means a different playing style for us, can Arteta adapt? Probably. Would he? I don’t know. What about the other players? I think Saka would love to play with him but Jesus is a guy who needs ball to feet. Is this going to work? Again, I don’t know. Ironically, I think Kvara would work a lot better with Eddie than Jesus.
I’d probably take him and just see what happend. I do love watching him play.
Thank you. I haven’t seen him play really, but there are a handful of players it’s worth building your team around. Haaland, probably. Messi. It’s a high bar.
Quick thoughts on the Brighton game…
This was a good time to catch them without their first choice midfield of MacAllister and Caicedo, as well as Webster and Welbeck who are important role players for them. That said, it was still much easier than I thought it would be, or rather Arsenal made it look easier than it should have been. It wasn’t until they started going very direct that we looked bothered at the back. Mitoma is a huge talent whom I’ve spoke of before. He gives me Mahrez vibes with his ability to dribble, pass and score. He should’ve had a brace today.
From an Arsenal perspective, the goals were great and Odegaard is just walking on water right now. The front 4 are clicking and Jesus’ absence is hardly felt. I do think his exceptional close control and exceptional work rate are a cut above where Eddie is right now, but Eddie has the better composure. They both have outstanding instincts in the box. A lot of tacticos have been saying that Eddie is going to be thought of in similar terms as Jesus in the not too distant future. However the biggest play of the game was not made by a striker but by Thomas Partey, whose 1st minute tackle on Lamptey turned what would have been a 5 on 3 for Brighton into what became the opening goal for Arsenal.
From a defensive perspective, you have to look at Tomiyasu and Saliba individually for the goals. Tomi had a hard time corralling his international team mate, understandably after having a difficult world cup and not having had a run of games at right back. Saliba got caught dallying on a ball he should have cleared. Encouraging that neither was the result of a structural issue, but we have to clean those things up for Newcastle because we are not scoring 4 against that lot.
I have seen the future
and it’s name is
Martin Ødegaard
I thought the Brits have to take boxing lessons on said day so they can brawl over Brexit? For a moment this morningz, I thought it was gonna be 4-3 and then who knows? Likely would have scraped through but this morning I felt nervous for the first game in a while.
” Boxing day, named after the day that everyone in England is required to learn boxing” and “Here is a breakdown (of the games, not mental, that comes later in the season)” made me smile. Happy new year
is odegaard better than fabregas?
Maybe not quite yet. But it’s close, and I’m not sure Odegaard is at his top level yet.
Honestly, the way he’s looked lately, he can end up as one of the top attacking midfielders in the world.
If we can avoid too many major injuries and keep the team together, this team has a very bright future. Could very well be challenging for the title and Champions League for the next 5 years at least. Really the only key component that is older and going to be hard to find a backup/replacement for is Partey.
If managed carefully there is no reason why TP can’t play at this level for a few more years. I do think we need quality competition at that spot but the man he has been immense this season. Arguably he’s the most pivotal cog in our machine. Our one loss this season came in a game without him. We have to explore extending him.
Even if we buy someone to play in that position in January it will take a long time for that player to learn the role to the level that TP is playing it. It took TP himself 1.5 seasons. We basically live or die with him this season regardless of January.
Fabricass was a unique player; played deeper and was a much better defender than people remember. I see him as a guy playing like peak Ozil at the moment. But the important thing is that I’m really not sure where I’d place Odegaard right now, because this is sort of his first real break out season, and those guys did it year in and year out for decades.
agreed concerning cesc playing deeper. wenger was determined to make him a #10 but his best season was when he played as a #8 behind hleb.
with that, i thought hleb, rosicky, and even arshavin were better #10 than cesc. his intelligence is why he thrived. i believe odegaard is already a better #10 than cesc. i’m ready to compare him to db10. we’ll see. still can’t believe arsenal got him so cheap.
Worse was Guardiola trying to make Cesc into a false 9.
I have an enduring love for Cesc. He needed more help. I could write a lot of words about him.
Let’s just say that we have been blessed to have been able to watch a succession of great creative players at Arsenal. Bergkamp to Fabregas to Cazorla to Ozil to Odegaard, that creative lineage is the very fabric of the club in the modern day. When people think about Arsenal, they mainly think of the football that those players enabled us to play under Arsenal Wenger.
Two big thumbs up for Cesc. I always have time for him.
Spain may not have won Le Coupe Mondial without him coming off the bench and helping to release Iniesta for the only goal of the match, to beat the Netherlands. Van Persie was on the other side too, if I’m recalling it correctly.
I still love Cesc. It may be more romantic – we’re the same age, so I felt that connection – but what a player.
I see Odegaard as being 80 percent as good as Cesc at doing Cescy things, but also 80 percent as good as Wilshere at doing Wilshere things. Ode has vision, physicality, getting his hands dirty a bit that Cesc had. Not quite as much, but getting there. But he also has that dribble and close control that Jack had that Cesc didn’t. Not the same extent, but not far.
The comparisons to Ozil don’t hold up for me. Ozil never did the spectacular really, and didn’t really get his hands dirty. Phenomenal in his prime, but much more subtle.
Özil never did the spectacular… surely you jest?
I mean yes, he did, but it wasn’t primarily his game. It’s why he got so much crap for ‘not doing much’, how magic was not necessarily in the spectacular but in the way he would unlock defenses in ways you often couldn’t see. I don’t mean to take anything away from him, just the opposite. But when I watch Odegaard I don’t see Ozil.
Ozil did spectacularly for a decade or more,this is just odes 1st year.rem ozils passes to Monreal,kolasinac etc not seen by anyone.pls odegaard is himself same as Cesc,Ozil and DB
There are more ways than one to be a creative fulcrum!
I’m the same age as Arteta. I think that’s part of my love for him.
This Mudryk deal is reaching astronomical proportions. Almost definitely more of a risk than Pepe and/or Saliba. Probably a good time to remember what was completely ignored when evaluating those deals – that “risk” does not equal “bad idea”.
Wonder what x factor Arteta/Edu are seeing. His desire to play for us is one.
big up to unai for handing spurs an “L”. his style is suited for spurs and, as long as conte maintains this strategic approach, he’ll always beat tottenham.
boys, i’ve become a big fan of fulham’s paulinha. i was disappointed that he didn’t get more reps in the world cup for portugal but man, what a player.
for those that don’t know, he’s a #8 that can cover a boatload of ground. he reminds me a bit of roy keane with better technique and i think he could push xhaka to the bench. watch for him.