Arsenal have played thirteen matches and won twelve, a 92% win rate. Not only have Arsenal won twelve of thirteen but they have managed xG superiority in nine of those matches, one was virtually a dead heat (Crystal palace 0.9 xG, Arsenal 1.0), and of the final three matches, Arsenal managed to win two and only lost the one time, against Manchester United.
I have never seen Arsenal start this well. Even the invincibles lost to Inter Milan in their first Champions League game that season. In fact, the Invincibles first 13 matches had two losses (Inter and Dynamo Kyiv) and four draws (Pompey 1-1, Man U 0-0, Lokomotiv Moscow (0-0), and Charlton Athletic (1-1)!). And after the collapse at the end of the previous season (draw to Notlob and loss to Leeds) I can’t remember too many of us thinking that we were shoo ins for the title, much less that we’d go an entire season undefeated.
The closest analogous season is 2007/08. Arsenal won 13 of their first 14 matches that year and didn’t lose a game until November 27th, against Sevilla. Arsenal wouldn’t lose a match in the Premier League until December 9th, away to Middlesbrough, 2-1, after Howard Webb gave them a soft as baby shit penalty. I swear to this day that Webb hated Toure and Adebayor.
It’s tough to invoke that season, I know, because of what happened to Eduardo at Birmingham and the effect it had on our title race. But there is no question that through the first 20 matches Arsenal were the League leaders and everyone considered Arsenal title contenders. And here we are again, albeit with a bit more of a tempered view of the title race.
538 has Man City 63% favorites to win the League and Arsenal just 15% favorites. Last season at this time, they had Liverpool second with a 30% chance of winning the League. Those numbers will change as the season goes on: 538 has already lifted Arsenal’s SPI from 78.5 at the start of the season to 82.9 right now, reflecting Arsenal’s better forward play and more robust defense.
And let’s get into that!
Offensively, Arsenal are 2nd in the League with 18.5 xG, 1.85 per game. Last season, Arsenal managed just 59 xG or about 1.6 per game. So, we have seen a modest uptick in output up top.
Getting Jesus in our team has helped of course. He leads Arsenal with 7.3 npxG+xA, which shows his all around quality in attack. But adding Jesus has had a knock on effect for the other players as well, Gabriel Martinelli already has four goals and two assists this season and is the standout player in attack. His ability to break down resolute defenses with a quick dribble, get to the by line and either play in a cross or drag back is essential to Arsenal’s attack right now.
And on the other side, Bukayo Saka is showing star quality as well. After a slow start to the season, Saka has scored in each of his last three games and has either a goal or an assist in 7 of his last 8 starts for Arsenal. The only start he didn’t get a goal or assist in lately was Spurs. But in that game he had 7 SCA and was credited with a GCA (pass to Benjamin White for the long range goal).
And no discussion of the Arsenal attack would be complete without recognizing that Arteta’s inverted fullback system has given license to Granit Xhaka to get forward and score and assist goals. That he already has 5 this season (2 scored, 3 assisted – which is the most he’s had in a season since 2019) is a testament to his and Arteta’s hard work.
Someone asked me yesterday (in the comments) about the inverted fullbacks and what that offers to Arsenal. My gut instinct was that it gives the Arsenal Midfield an extra man to attack. That means that we can have five attackers instead of the 3 or 4 of seasons past. But I asked twitter and they gave me some really great answers which I thought I would repeat here.
So, for one thing, we don’t need to send the fullbacks bombing forward and overlapping as often. If you recall, this was something Emery’s team did and it worked for a while until people figured out that there were huge spaces in the back and started eating us alive.
David Veres adds that counter to the assumption, which is that playing the FB as CDM is playing them “out of position” it’s actually helping to utilize people’s natural (I would say learned) talents more.
Quite a few people also pointed out that it helps defensively. By clogging the middle with a FB and with 5 players up top in attack, you give yourself a good base to press high, and you force counter attacking low block teams to go wide with their counters. This is a less dangerous position for them to start in. And if they try to go through the middle, you have three CBs (effectively) plus two DMs (one is a FB) that they ostensibly have to get through. And finally, one reader mentioned that when he deployed this tactic there was an energy saving component to it: since the FBs weren’t bombing up the pitch 100 yards on every attack, they naturally had less running to do.
And all of this is showing up in the defensive stats as well. Arsenal lead the League in final third tackles, 6th in final third pressures, and 2nd (behind Liverpool) in pressure success rate. This goes a long way to explaining why Arsenal have the third best xGA. And if you don’t count that penalty in the Leeds match, which shouldn’t have been given because of the offside, then we have the 2nd best xGA in the League.
The only blot on the copy book so far this season was a big loss away to Manchester United. In that match Arsenal supporters rightly felt aggrieved at the VAR official getting involved in the opening goal and telling the on-field official to overturn the goal because of a “foul” a minute earlier in the game. It has since been revealed that an independent panel (which reviews all major decisions) have told Arsenal that the VAR official was wrong to intervene in the Odegaard-Eriksen incident because the new directive in the League is to let play go on.
I want to add that from that article above, there’s also an explanation of “why” VAR decided not to intervene and the offside wasn’t given in the buildup to the handball penalty against Leeds. Essentially the VAR official decided on his own that because Arsenal attempted to clear the ball, there were two phases of play. As the author points out, that is a subjective call and another official might have decided that it was all the same phase of play and called it back. But what’s lost in all of this is that the sideline official (the one whose eagle eyes missed Bambam shoving Gabriel over and saw Gabriel’s tantrum) completely blew the offside call. It’s not even a close call and from what I recall when VAR was introduced we were told that these not even close calls would be VAR’s bread and butter. I know that Arsenal weren’t punished by this complete failure of refereeing and it might sound odd to complain about it in two different posts and especially in a post where I am talking about how great Arsenal have been this season, but I think that it’s such a huge error that it needs to be highlighted again.
Back to the topic…
Five stars! That’s what I’m giving Arsenal for this fine start to the season. I had set my expectations for this season very low, Europa League places, and here they are playing their asses off and top of the league. I am not yet ready to call them “title challengers” because we do still see some weaknesses and frankly, Man City just look ridiculously good this season. However, I am now adjusting my expectations up a notch: Arsenal have to be top four or even top three this season. I know that we will have an adjustment again at some point this season. I know that the World Cup is throwing an oily wrench into the entire system. And I know that this season, of all the seasons I’ve ever watched, is probably the most unpredictable. But I think we should expect top four. And for that, and all of the work Arteta has done making this team fun to watch again, I’m giving this part of the season five stars.
Great 1/3 of season report but boy does it feel like you’re tempting fate!
I just hope it can be sustained despite a thinnish squad, the world cup and our tendency last season for a hot streak to be followed by a very poor run.
I love singing WATOTL but I’d feel less like a target and that we might be riding for a fall if we were travelling more under the radar like the Spuds and Chelsea. (It goes without saying that in every other respect I’d prefer to be anything other than like the Spuds and Chelsea).
Only a quarter of it gone, mate 🙂
Deserved 5 stars. Sometimes I think that gooners prefer unhappiness. I cant believe the moaning on social media about our failure to annihilate Leeds.
No one foresaw/foretold this start that the kind of sumptuous play that we’re serving up. We look a team of beasts, from back to front. Even Jesus — not the biggest guy — plays with physicality.
The one thing I’d say is that I’d like to see Tomi played in his natural position, RB. It seemed a needed tactical adjustment against Liverpool… it should not be the #1 fix in Zinch’s absence. White has been good at RB, but the coach has to play his leading RB and defensive dog there.
Yesterday I got binned for not saying we are in the title race, now I’m getting binned for saying we are a top four team!
EVERYONE MAKE UP YOUR MINDS!
It’s all about the certainty. We aren’t definitely a top 4 team because it is too early in the season and too much can go wrong. Contenders don’t have to finish first, but rather still be in the discussion at fixture round 31.
Very big lol😁😁
5 star article from you Tim. Really informative discussion on the inverted fullbacks. Arsenal start has been enjoyable and entertaining, and apparently historic. Top four and enjoyable football are my goals for the team, and undoubtedly, others are free to dream and fantasize of bigger things.
Definitely a 5 Star performance from the team and a great article from you as usual. Am expecting the team to get stronger after the World cup as I believe the club would strengthen the midfield and possibly RW position….or in attack..Top 3 or atleast top 4 is the least I expect the team to end.
Excellent analysis Tim and by far the best explanation of the benefits of the inverted fullbacks that I have read. Your award of five stars is highly appropriate and your caution vis-à-vis the title is eminently sensible. Top blog post. sir.
As a Gooner, for me, life is good right now. Wondering what’s next is natural, but it destroys the moment because of the recent past. Last season, we were playing good stuff well into 2022, until we choked at the end, absolutely bottled it, and gifted the last Champion’s League place to S%&r$. I can’t bear to think ahead to the next game.
A quarter of the season done already and just another month of games until the godawful World Cup in the place where not fun goes to die. Along with migrant construction workers. I won’t be watching, so I’m enjoying this Arsenal football as much as I can for now.
4.5* article and sentiment.
Tim, could you kindly do an analysis of the defensive side too?
Do not think it will be rated as highly, except when Holding plays in the side, who would have thought. Not saying he should start, just maybe look at the times the side has kept clean sheets.
Me, loving the way the team has been playing offensively, especially when Zinc is in the sqaud, and do not even get me started on Powerman Saliba, what a wonderful player he is to watch!
Five stars all around. I’m feeling a lot of the 07/08 vibes, too, and getting a bit anxious already! But mostly just enjoying the ride.
Another benefit of the inverted FB is that it provides an additional passing lane in to the box. As an example the goal against Tottenham, the defender has to decide whether: a) to block BWs passing chanel into the box, b)prepare to double up on Saka, C) get in to position to block TP if he receives the ball.
Basically the overload at that corner is more creative and in a more dangerous area.
Still need to see how team performs away from home. Lost to MU and Leeds ran us ragged. I don’t think this team will return unscathed from City, Liverpool, Spurs or Chelsea. That is why I don’t think the team is ready to challenge for title yet. We had a good purple patch but while I hope it lasts longer, it won’t.
For those who get around the paywall, interesting story about reviving the European Super League over at The Times. http://www.thetimes.co.uk
I knew it wasn’t going to entirely go away. Hamstrung by year’s of fiscal irresponsibility, the influential few from the continent are now bitching and moaning about EPL fiscal irresponsibility.
Tim, your take would be of interest to not just me, I’m sure.
Do you have the direct link?
Also, you can almost always get around a paywall using a site called archive.ph
I found it.
https://archive.ph/yWah3
That’s the one and thanks for the paywall tip!
““Two of the past four finals have been all-English contests and only Real Madrid prevented a third all-English final in June. Over the past five years, roughly 75 per cent of Champions League semi-finalists were from England, plus the few continental exceptions Paris [Saint-Germain], [Real] Madrid and [Bayern] Munich.”
Boo-fu*K!ng who. As if they’d behave any differently, if they still had the resources.
Sounds like they want a super league that excludes the English teams, which is interesting.
Mainly because of the financial power of many EPL teams, which far outstrips anything in continental Europe and can create billion $$ teams like MCFC and probably soon, I guess, NUFC.
Kicking those EPL teams out of European competition may make those Emirs and others like Silent Stan think of re-investing in Germany, Spain and Italy.
Tim,
I re-read the article and I see the defensive stats, I just want to know what the best squad is defensively in xGa and offesnsive xG combined.
Just curious.
Really interesting about the role of the narrow FB. I have been wondering that myself and the way you explain it makes a lot of sense. With so many advantages you wonder why more teams don’t do it?
Watched some of the PSV game. I think I can best sum it up as: efficient? The team was playing containment and when we brough on our first choice midfielders then the screw began to turn and they conceded.
I think the reason more teams don’t play the way we do and Pep dos is because it requires a lot of positional play, which may need a lot of training.
I will also add that there are a lot of components of Arsenal’s play that a lot of other teams do emulate but each team has to play to its relative strengths and also the desires of the manager. I don’t think Conte will ever make a team play like Arsenal/City – not because he’s not smart enough (I assume he is) but because he doesn’t want to. Same with Mou. Even Arteta’s approach has evolved over the years and his style isn’t a direct replica of Guardiola.