Arsenal cruised to a 2-1 win over Brentford thanks to goals from Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka.
Before kickoff I wrote down three questions:
- How many red cards?
- Can Lacazette score?
- Will there be a Saka/Smith Rowe connection?
The first question is just about referee controversy. I get the sense from comments on social media that Arsenal supporters are laser focused on every referee decision in every Premier League match right now, looking for evidence that Arsenal are treated differently from every other team. And maybe we are. Maybe it’s not fair. But what can we do about it? I don’t think complaining about things that are outside of our control is very healthy, but then that’s me. That’s just something I’ve learned from my recovery. But hey, you go right ahead and get worked up about it. That’s none of my business.
And if you wanted to get upset about the referees, this match gave you plenty of ammunition. I thought the referee held his whistle on more than one occasion where, if I were the ref, I would have given Arsenal a penalty. But I’m not the ref and I can actually understand why the ref wouldn’t give Arsenal any borderline calls: because the more we complain about the referees, the more incentive they have to NOT call borderline decisions in our favor. Referees don’t want to be seen as biased or influenced by outside factors. So, if they suddenly start making borderline calls in Arsenal’s favor after we’ve spent the last few months complaining, they will be accused of bending to our pressure.
And not only that but it’s actually unfair of them to suddenly start giving Arsenal more close decisions. Is it Brentford’s fault that Arsenal got a red card against Wolves? No! And not only that but if you think that the Martinelli red card was unfair – which I think 90% of you do – then why would you be baying for referees to give out another one? I’ve seen that far too often. Or if you think we are getting soft penalties against us, then why would you want more soft pens in our favor?
I would have definitely given a penalty for Arsenal when Pepe was tripped. But I’m ok with them not giving it because I don’t actually want a lot more penalties given in the Premier League. I don’t want any soft penalties given because we saw what happened when they did that at the beginning of last season. It was absurd. So, I just accept referee decisions as they are.
It’s out of our control. The thing that is within our control is how we play football and yesterday we didn’t really play great football. Especially not in the first half.
I thought Lacazette had a terrible match. He played like a man possessed, by a cart horse. It shows up in our pass maps as well: he couldn’t really get a touch in against the Brentford back 9. And when he did get a touch, he was often wasteful – turning the ball over or making the wrong decision.
Arteta’s football has grown this year and instead of playing a double pivot, Arsenal are now playing with Thomas deep and Xhaka and Øde as the horns in a midfield fork. Stillman pointed it out on twitter:
As you can see, we are playing more and more like Manchester City as the season goes on. And it looks to me like our biggest hole in the team is the number 9.
I now know why we went so hard in for Vlahovic and why we were also interested in Lautaro. We need someone who can control that area of the pitch.
There have been a lot of suggestions that Arteta should move Martinelli to the middle but I don’t like that idea at all. Personally, think Martinelli’s control and decision-making is worse than Lacazette’s. However, I do think that Arteta should give someone else a look in the false 9 role: Emile Smith Rowe. He’s the exact kind of player that Pep Guardiola would play in the false 9 role. And honestly, if we did it? I think he would be transformed into one of the best players in the league.
But I can’t see Arteta shaking things up at this point in the season, in his heart Arteta is a conservative coach.
The third question was also “no” but only because they didn’t assist each other. They did both score! And I love watching these two guys grow. By the way, Lacazette technically got an assist for Smith Rowe’s goal but that’s one of those assists that takes away from the skill and work that Smith Rowe put in to score.
Anyway, that’s enough about the game. They got a lucky, scrappy goal at the end and the only thing that bothers me about that is that we didn’t get the clean sheet we probably deserved. Their time wasting in the first half was shameful.
One final thing; I’ve seen a number of people in the comments and on Twitter suggest that Arteta needs to finish 4th or they will be “Arteta out”. I understand where these folks are coming from, the club has spent a lot of money and these fans think that should mean he needs to finish fourth. But may I offer an alternate opinion? You may want to go ahead and temper that expectation and let me give you some reasons why.
I’m no fan of Arteta’s personality but I can see that he’s improved us this season on the pitch in a number of ways. We are attacking much better than before and we also have quite a strong defense. We aren’t the best in either department and we are still going to ship some goals and have matches that we don’t create much but I think that we are just a decent number 9 or false 9 along with a quick and able midfielder away from being a really good team. So, even though I think he’s not a great person to work with and that he’s got what I consider an antiquated relationship with his players, he is improving this team.
And second, I think that the Kroenkes believe in Arteta and his project. The reason I think they believe in him is the exact reason why you think it’s 4th or bust: because they have backed him to the tune of hundreds of millions of pounds in losses in the transfer market and in terms of players getting shipped out. Whenever it’s come down to a battle between the manager and a star player, they have consistently backed the manager. So come hell (8th place) or high water (5th place) I can’t see them suddenly reversing their opinion.
I suspect that they would only consider firing him if he somehow messed things up with guys like Smith Rowe, Saka, Martinelli, White, Tierney, Ramsdale, or Øde. And given his personality, that’s a real possibility. But so far, those guys all seem on board with Arteta.
And finally, 4th place isn’t at all like 4th place was under Wenger from 2006-2017. For most of my time watching football, there were only a few teams who could realistically compete for 4th place: Man U, Arsenal, and sometimes Liverpool. Chelsea came in and then came Man City and suddenly 4th place was a lot harder to achieve. And now we have Man City, Man U, Chelsea, and Liverpool as solidly top 4 teams. In order to get top 4, Arsenal basically have to supplant one of those teams.
Football has also changed from top to bottom. Recruitment is better, analytics are ubiquitous, fitness is understood at an unprecedented level, and so on. The point here is that it is much harder to find marginal advantages than ever before. And we are seeing that play out this season. We all thought 4th place was available but it’s looking like Man U are going to solidify their position there. But there’s a chance for us to catch them, we just have to get 5 points from our games in hand against Spurs, Wolfs, and Chelsea and then keep pace with them the rest of the season. That’s a realistic target but also I wouldn’t be surprised if we have a small slip that means we finish 5th, 6th or 7th. Again, we just aren’t quite a complete team yet so I’m being realistic.
If after all this you’re still “4th or bust” that’s cool. I understand where you’re coming from but I guess we just have to disagree. I just don’t have the energy to get all worked up about Arteta, Arsenal, and 4th place.
Now, if we don’t finish above Spurs? HAHAHAHA!
Agree with you on Lacazette. I made the same comment on Arseblog, but got a bunch of downvotes. He was poor yesterday, slow, bereft of confidence and not making the right passes.
ESR might be a good option. He’s actually bigger than he looks, listed at 6’1″, so as he matures and puts on a little more muscle, might be able to hold his own in there.
Frankly, the way Laca was yesterday, I’d rather have Pepe in the middle. At least he’s a threat and has speed.
Otherwise, was pretty pleased with everyone yesterday. Cedric has put together two decent matches in a row, so maybe we’re starting to see why Arteta kept him instead of Chambers.
Wasn’t able to watch the game yesterday, but saw highlights of the significant incidents. To get the full refereeing context, I think you have to watch the whole game. There’s going to be a lot of half and half stuff that was not highlighted. So you can take my assessment, that we were unlucky, in whatever way you will. As Doc said of the handball, I’ve seen them given. A defender, even in the act of evading/blocking a hit ball with his back partially turned, cannot have him arm up like that.
On getting 4th, there’s another position, and it’s one which I occupy. Not hitting top 4 is failure, but it’s not a sackable offence. He’s got all the tools conditions to get 4th, and we are letting him off lightly by caveating that. On the other hand, I can live with the Evertonisation of Arsenal. I just think that he’ll have wasted a great opportunity, and he will have had his cake and consumed it. 8th to 6th without European wear and tear and travel and nothing but the prem to play for in January is a bust, however much harder to top echelons of the league has become. Time was when we had highish expectations at Arsenal. Now we seem prepared to give Mikel a pass for essentially not improving our league fortunes despite no European grind, and an 8th place finish.
Fully agree about KSE. They seem to like him and seem to be prepared to back him. At the very least, that is is providing stability. So I guess you can take that as a positive. Are we 2 high class injections away, or are they content to turn us into Everton? We will see in a year’s time.
Picking up on a couple of your comments and expanding…
– I don’t know what you mean by the “Evertonisation of Arsenal”, but if you mean the acceptance of mediocrity then I would firmly reject that.
– “Now we seem prepared to give Mikel a pass for essentially not improving our league fortunes despite no European grind, and an 8th place finish.” I’d ask you to hold your horses a bit here, there’s a lot of this stuff going around. I don’t see anyone “giving Mikel a pass” and I don’t see any need to imply complacency on the part of other fans.
Right now we’re on course for a 69 point league finish this season. That’s an 8-point improvement, and it would have seen us finish 3rd or 4th last season, on level points with Liverpool. So as things stand there is very much an “improvement to our league fortunes” currently underway.
I’m on record as saying I want 70+ points this season and an 80 point target next season. I think that’s a tough but achievable goal. We have a thin squad and a tough run of fixtures coming up, so I’m in no way counting chickens. But if we collapse and end up 8th again or on the same number of points you can be sure that people would not accept that.
Stepping back a bit, the last time we finished in the top 4 was SIX years ago, that’s Evertonisation for you. When Arteta took over we were 10th, and we’re coming out of a pandemic. I think expecting top 4 this season is fine but in the bigger picture it’s a big ask and I agree with you that less than 4th should not automatically result in a sacking as long as we see improvement.
Targets are not everything though. I get reminded of this book by a strategy guru I read a couple of years ago, where the writer went ballistic on CEOs who just set targets and call it a strategy – “biggest company in our sector! “$10 million profit!”. You have to explain how you’re going to do it. A strategy has to contain an actionable plan, a series of steps that get you to where you want to go. How are you going to get there? What are you going to do that’s different or better than your competitors?
I can see a proper, coherent strategy at Arsenal at last with our way of playing, the focus on character, team spirit, youth and aggressive recruitment. Doesn’t mean I won’t criticise things I don’t like or accept low standards.
Mid table doesn’t mean mediocrity. Who said that? I don’t regard Everton as mediocre by any stretch. I don’t see a basis for your “firmly reject” (whew. Take it easy, pal) besides disagreement; but that is fine. This is a football blog. You’re free to always look at things on the bright side for this management team. Here’s what I am saying.
The Evertonisation of Arsenal is rewarding Mikel for consistently bringing in Arsenal below its traditional standing. You’re gonna win a cup once in a blue moon, but accept that Arsenal are an upper mid table club, a 6th to 9th one. I’m not there. And I have argued in detail why, all things considered, he should be held to a higher standard this season. Everton fans are happy well rounded folks, and do not expect top 4. Perhaps you’ve been Evertonised already and that’s fine. It does not make Arsenal a bad club. It just makes it a club where fan expectations have adjusted to match drop in the quality of the results… 8th in year 1 and Europa via the FA cup, 8th in year 2 and no Europe.
Thin squad, you say? It is that way for a reason. We have a truckload of good to very good players out on loan, or turfed out. If the manager chooses to stretch us thin rather than utilise people in service of a robust squad, that’s on him. He has been given much more resources than he is prepared to utilise. Regardless, we have a light fixture list… two games this month. To me, you’re just making excuses in advance on Mikel’s behalf.
Points are a cop out. A team performs in relation to all the others in the league, which is not the same year on year. In 97 and 98 (I think) Arsenal and United won the league with points that would have dropped them to third in other seasons. No team goes around flaunting its points total.
Your book sounds good. I think I’ll give it a read.
i agree with much of what you’re saying. i don’t get worked up about the penalties the other teams get because it just doesn’t matter; what they eat doesn’t make me shit. lacazette had a poor day by his standards but was more effective than he get’s credit for. i agree, the first goal wasn’t an assist for laca but an unassisted goal for emile. likewise, partey is more effective as a lone #6 but teams are targeting and setting traps for him; it’s a matter of time before he get’s trapped and it leads to a goal. it would have been nice to see a player like mesut be given the defensive freedom that’s been awarded to xhaka. lastly, odegaard has been pretty poor and sloppy with the ball lately but was outstanding yesterday.
i’m no arteta fan either but i’ve never suggested the man be fired. i loved the man as a player. i’d just like to see a bit of humility in some circumstances and more savvy leadership in others. likewise, i’d like to see the ambition coupled with, what jocko willink would call extreme ownership for the results and the performances. i’ve repeatedly said that he’s a much better coach now than he was when he first began at arsenal. he should expect to finish in the top 4.
as for the ideas at center forward, lacazette is still the best option that arsenal have. so many have tried and failed to lead the line. the idea of a 20-year old kid playing there in the premier league when he’s not the smartest and it’s not his best position is nonsensical. does anyone remember wayne rooney in euro 2004? when owen went down, erickson asked 20-year old wayne rooney to play as a lone center forward. rooney was shit-hot and played his heart out and he was absolutely abysmal; i think england went out in the group stage. think timo werner at the last world cup…or timo werner at chelsea. think theo or alexis at arsenal. these guys were all talented but none could play center forward. who really believes 20-year old martinelli could do a better job than prime alexis sanchez? it’s not as easy as it seems.
bottom line is this; lacazette may not be scoring but he’s still making plays that lead to goals. his contribution is undeniable. the desire to drop him is naive. when auba was leading the line, arsenal weren’t even creating chances. now, they create boatloads of chances because of good center forward play from a guy who, unfortunately, is not scoring a lot of goals. regardless, laca’s still the catalyst for the arsenal attack. he has a hand in just about every arsenal goal. what happens when you remove a catalyst from a system or reaction?
in the game yesterday, we know laca passed to emile. for the second goal, there was a ball played to lacazette in the build up that if it had been played to martinelli or pepe, they would have lost the ball. likewise, after winning the ball, his run made space for partey to carry the ball forward and it led to a 2v2 with saka/laca vs. the 2 brentford defenders. nuance, but it’s the little things that make the difference. in the goal last week, it was lacazette who beat the wolves keeper to the ball and that’s what made the goal for gabriel. those little things meant arsenal won the last two games. you can’t simply pretend that anyone could do what lacazette does.
Josh – sooooooo right. We just play better attacking football with Laca in there. I was really sorry about that offside call, because it would have quieted the critics a bit and given the guy a little boost. I don’t care if HE scores. I care if WE score. And we score when Laca is on the pitch. There was a Martinelli goal earlier this year where Laca sealed off the defender to give his teammate a clearer shot. No one talked about it. It’s all the dirty work and no glory. I’ll take a guy like that on my team any time. It’s like he’s just out there having fun playing with the young guys – it’s not about him, and he’s 100% ok with that. https://twitter.com/LacazetteAlex/status/1495132771479605250?s=20&t=4IabOrTJ5Kb5WI_xcxmOhA Like Dennis Rodman without the eccentricity.
You also have made me retract my statement about Martinelli from the last thread. I think he would struggle as a 9 right now. However, I think ESR might be able to pull it off, as Tim says. He can hold up play, has good vision and is an above average passer, and can score with either foot. I would like to see him get a chance there.
3 more points. On to the next one.
i agree 100% with your statement that it’s not about lacazette scoring, it’s about arsenal scoring. i remember trying to explain to someone (probably bill) a while ago that as players get older, they don’t necessarily play for stats but for the team. i remember when arsenal won the double in ’98, bergkamp led the team in goals. however, in ’99, he was trying to create chances for anelka and others. bergkamp never led the team in goals again. even henry, as he got older, cared more about creating for others than scoring himself. it’s why he had the record for assists in a league season.
as for emile as a false 9, i’m not sure i agree with you and tim. i haven’t seen the evidence that you have in the same way. conventional wisdom suggests that as long as arsenal are creating chances, lacazette will remain the arsenal center forward.
“it’s about Arsenal scoring”
I agree and the problem is that Arsenal have only scored 4 goals in his last 7 matches since January 1st. He had a great little run in December but his touches have dried up and I think it’s not working anymore. I think teams have either figured out how to stop him or his fitness has cratered.
People who are complaining about him have a legitimate complaint, I think. Just like I thought your support for him was legitimate, back in December.
We will have to rise to the occasion 4th again is our trophy….the coach/ manager needs now more than ever to prove he has what it takes to please us the fans and give confidence and hope to his young players….
I think you make an interesting point about persistent whining being more likely to result in the opposite of the desired effect from referees. But surely that applies more to players on the pitch than petulant fans on obscure (clearly not 7am!) blog sites. And we are by far not the most whiny of teams in the Premier League – I give that title to the West London Divers Club, with the Moaners not far behind. I also wonder whether you think two (or more) soft shouts for a penalty should equal a hard shout. If a player persistently fouls he can receive a yellow for a possibly innocuous foul just because of the number of fouls committed. Shouldn’t penalties have a similar attrition factor applied?
I kinda sorta get the love for Laca. I love him too. He’s the best we have playing CF. If I’m the best looking in my family, God help us. It speaks badly to everyone 😊 Laca is similarly damned with faint praise.
Laca brings others into play, is a good fulcrum with willing runners, he knits play well, he’s unselfish, hard working, a good team man. But he’s little, he’s not particularly fast, and big defenders eat his lunch. He often looks an honest toiler…. a long way short of an elite CF. But he’s the best we have. To his credit, he plays smart… so much of sport is in the head.
That said, we managed to construct a squad with a list of one with the skillset he has. And I don’t care how well he plays, his scoring record is concerning, to put it politely. Auba has more goals for Arsenal this season than he does, and he missed a ton of games and has left the club. What’s Laca’s return? Two goals in 22, I believe. Sorry man, that is a terrible return. And yes, LA, I badly wanted him to get that goal.
We’re going to need a massive upgrade at CF, plus at least one other player who can play the back to goal role. We need top drawer right away, and an Adebayor type purchase, a high potential CF who isn’t ready right right right now. Kind of the player we hoped Sanogo would be. Eddie and Balogun aren’t that type of player. Laca may not stay, and as good a servant of the club that he is, I’d be fine with that. It’d be in the interest of player and club to seek something new. I say this as someone who loves Laca, and admires how he’s led the team at a difficult time.
Yeah, the Lacazette situation for me is similar to Xhaka’s before Partey arrived.
He’s the best we’ve got, but that says more about the state of our squad than his quality.
https://www.espn.in/football/fc-salzburg/story/4596016/salzburgs-successes-are-proving-antonio-contes-insistence-on-experience-is-an-antiquated-notion
I’ll leave this here. The highlight for me :
“The point, though, is that when there’s a baseline of talent, if you have energy, work rate, a strong identity and good coaching, then perhaps experience is not that important. Certainly not as important as some managers and clubs — who regularly overpay for it, because older players inevitably make substantially more money — think it is”
i’m not sure i agree with this. while i agree having all of those qualities in place significantly increases your chance of success, there are tough games where the young players don’t know how to control games well enough to hold on to victory or recover from going behind. this is where you need the experience.
the austrian bundesliga is about on par with the mls. rb salzburg wins the league every year because they have far more financial clout than the rest of the league. they buy the best young players because those kids know they’ll be seen in europe so their league position means nothing.
however, a one-off game at home where they played well against fc bayern can happen. with an experienced leader, they could have gotten the win. instead, the kids conceded a late equalizer. bottom line, fc bayern didn’t have to get out of 3rd gear and secured an away draw. this salzburg team isn’t as talented as the ’95 ajax team. that young ajax team had the leadership of danny blind and frank rijkaard. if this rb salzburg team wins the champions league, we can revisit. however, they won’t win because they don’t have the rijkaard-type player to lead them past bayern in germany. without that leadersip in the salzburg team, i expect bayern to throw them a proper beating in munich.
So the only definition of success is winning the Champions league now ? Let’s not do that.
We got throttled regularly by Bayern with our ‘experienced’ players. Barcelona with their stalwarts got humiliated. So defeat (even a heavy one) against Bayern says very little about the success of their project.
So Salzburg have young but talented players, beat lesser teams comfortably and give elite teams a run for their money. Isn’t that exactly what we’re trying to do right now ?
Experience is important, but some on here would have you believe nothing can be achieved without it. There are so many examples throughout Europe where a talented & hungry young team with good coaching have punched with well above their weight. In fact, that was the premise of this ‘rebuilding’ project. But now, youth has been conveniently re-purposed as a handicap to drive down expectations.
I wish we would have bought Kulusevski. I believed in making him perfect 9, but now he scores goals for Tott :(.
Arteta tried Smith Rowe at 9 against Villarreal last season. It didn’t work in that match, but I’ve long suspected that the idea was still bubbling away in his brain somewhere, and sure enough he mentioned Emile as a 9 in a presser the other day. I think we’ll see it again, but can’t really predict when – just like Martinelli had a period on the sidelines to get coached up, I suspect ESR won’t be played there until he’s deemed ready.
Really tough to judge that performance since Ceballos got a red card and Xhaka played LB. And Ceballos sucked ass.
Honestly, more than fourth place, I think my target for the team is to just make a big improvement over the last season. If we had 10 more points but somehow the same place in the EPL as last season, I think I’d be really upset, but be somewhat okay with that given time.
Also, I really like your idea with turning ESR into our false-9, I think it’s a role that will suit him well.
I quite agree about the 4th place opinion, laca has been huge for us going forwards but I think the pressure of the whole thing is getting to him- did you see that he was throwing up at the beginning of the second half? It’s a curious thing to be so involved in the hustle for the ball and be unable to make a pass for saka. 4th place is no piece of cake, here’s hoping we get a slice tho.
“As you can see, we are playing more and more like Manchester City as the season goes on.”
Yeah this is interesting, that passing network with Partey on the centre spot, Xhaka / Odegaard pushed higher up and fullbacks tucked in but staying wide of Partey – that’s the City 4-3-3 isn’t it? (https://totalfootballanalysis.com/article/manchester-citys-passing-network-vs-tottenham)
If not exactly City, it certainly has a different look to, say, Liverpool with the fullbacks more advanced, or Utd who are more congested in the centre circle.
It’s no surprise that this is what we’re evolving towards I guess, Arteta did spell it out a couple of seasons ago. It’ll be interesting to see if this continues to be the direction, and how new strikers / midfielders fit into this structure.
Gossip today is around this guy Ruiz from Napoli who from highlights looks like a younger and more defensively solid version of Xhaka, right down to the left foot and lack of pace.
Really superb post Tim again.
With regards to the refs, I have been hearing the same stuff about anti-Arsenal bias for the 14+ years that I have been following an Arsenal blog. For something to be going on for this long there has to be a reason the refs would consistently target Arsenal but what possible motivation could there be for such a long standing Anti-Arsenal bias. It makes absolutely no sense.
IMO. The real problem the rules of football are by necessity rather nebulous and in reality almost every single call the refs make other then offfsides is to some extent subjective and there is basically no way to prove or disprove our fans theories. Confirmation bias is a huge part of human nature and we see what we hope or expect to see. I suspects fans of every team believe that a majority of borderline calls go against them. I don’t follow any other teams blogs but I know the fans of a lot of the leagues “smaller teams” believe there is a pro-big team bias and they probably believe they more often then not get screwed by the refs whenever they play against Arsenal.
Realistically, our wheels can be wobbly while the chassis/suspensions of other teams can be more reliable, so realistically we could easily slip to mid-table. So I get that we are not a good bet for a CL spot in 2022-2023.
Unrealistically, 4th or bust! It could absolutely happen.
Man City losing this weekend is incredibly irritating. What absolutely hurts us is our inability to take points from Liverpool, Chelsea and the Manchester teams. And we still have to play those sides.
The good thing is we have already played Liverpool, City and Chelsea (and United) away from home. Those were our toughest fixtures for sure. Playing them at home isn’t easy but I’m certainly more optimistic in that setting.
According to this website, our strength of schedule reminding is only marginally harder than what we have done, probably because we’ve already played BurnLey, Brentford and Norwich twice.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/english-premier-league/epl-strength-of-schedule-remaining-games.html#sflx
It’s going to be down to the kids to get the goals. Whether that’s a sensible strategy time will tell. If we’re struggling to score and a recent outcast is ‘en fuego’ questions will be asked.
I said after the Leeds game Laca looked heavy. He was often at his most productive with Auba. Hopefully he can forge a similar partnership with Martinelli. Risky to rely on forwards who are leaving. It’s only human nature to start checking out as the exit appears.
Even if we can make the 4th this year our results against the Manchester teams, Chelsea and Liverpool would suggest we probably are not at that level yet and we need some more summer spending if we want to compete in the CL
Tim
I agree we have been playing better this year but how do separate what is related to managerial improvement compared to the improvement that you would expect from having better players. It can’t be a coincidence that we look better and Arteta’s tactics are working better now after spending %150M to bring in some players who can better execute what he wants to do. It seems pretty easy to accept that he has been able to move away from the double pivot and play more aggressively especially against bottom half of the table teams when he has better players on the back line. I can’t prove it but I would suggest the idea that Arteta was stodgy and conservative probably was not correct and he always wanted to play more like we have been most of this season but he did not have the squad to do it. I am certainly not suggesting that managers do not matter because we have seen plenty of managers in good situations who struggle. However, its my belief having better players is going to make any competent manager look a lot smarter.
Let’s be clear about this… Arsenal have some superb football players.
Gabriel looks like a City or Real Madrid quality defender.
Ramsdale is one of the leaders in clean sheets in the league, and his deputy, while not first choice for his country, is a German international of respected standing.
Analysts post game are still drooling over Odegaard, and rightly so. His vision, angles, reverse passing, understanding with the front 3. He’s not Mesut level, but he’s a dam fine player, and for me, a bigger goal threat. Getting better every game.
Saka is one of the most effective if not one of the best right sided forward players in Europe.
Emile is one of the league’s most accomplished attacking midfielders in front of goal.
Partey is showing his quality, finally. Give him another season, and we may see (if Arteta gives him the freedom) the Partey of Ghana, who adds goal threat to a really good all round game.
Criticise Xhaka all you want but when the game is slowed, he is a very effective dictator of the tempo.
Tierney is one of the league’s top all round fullbacks, and Tomi had been transfer larceny, playing way above his fee.
It’s why I feel bullish about our prospects. That’s some team we already have there. We can afford to harbour ambition. Pound for pound, I’d put our team against anyone outside the Top 2, except Manchester United’s. Courage, mon gooners. Are we the team who played the pants off City, or are we the team you’re a bit scared isn’t Top 4 quality? We need to decide who we are.
Next year we should look to reintegrate our quality performers out on loan, to deepen the squad and cover departures. Goodbye Laca, Elneny, Leno and Eddie. If we qualify for the Champions League as we should, then top quality players are going to want to sign.
P.s. The Totts signed a REALLY good player in Dejan Kulusevski this January. Hats off to their front office.
Agree with the refs, but I am over it and VAR.
Now, 4th or bust is a different question altogether.
I am not one to go with points at the end of the year or some other metric that tries to quantify progress.
We are either in 4th or not, the quality of team play in the EPL and every other league always goes in waves, some years brutally tight, other years certain teams have clear sailing at the top.
So, in essence the table never lies; either put up or shut up.
Arteta has been backed, our play has improved, yet 100 games in it was pure torture to watch.
Without Europe, and all the other noise, he either moves the needle or does not.
6-8th place to me is a death sentence, because next year what will be the excuses then?
As Tim pointed out, Arteta’s man management is not a highlight of this guys emotional intelligence. Either he figures it out, improves the squads ability to overcome adversity, injuries, sickness, and a thin squad of his own making or he does not.
Improve the quality of play and position in the league, and he may have a place at the table, otherwise next man up…
More on ESR as 9. We have to be very careful about the type of team we’re playing if we were to do this. I wouldn’t want him there against
a team that presses us in our end. I don’t think he has the same ability to drop and distribute that Laca does in those situations. A low block opponent would be one worth trying. Just worry about the beating ESR might take. Not easy carrying a CB on your back for 70+minutes. Laca is a master of going down to avoid injury. Needs to teach that to the boys before he goes.
‘Laca is a master of going down to avoid injury. Needs to teach that to the boys before he goes’
I don’t think that’s something we need. Lacazette falling down and looking for a free kick as soon as he’s pressured is how half of our attacks break down.
I’m prepared to give Arteta and this project all the time they want. I just don’t want boring football and I don’t want to be gaslit. If he fails expectations, that’s fine, but accept them and do better. I would have more confidence in him and them if they did that.
So far, these players are backing him, but also every player backing him is at the best place for their career progression. I’m not convinced these guys will still accept his demands if he doesn’t abide by them himself, and if the stepping stone they view the club as doesn’t get higher. Sure, Ramsdale, ESR, Saka all have an emotional connection to the club (You can thank the bad culture days for that) and you probably buy some time with that. You also have made it clear you’ll destroy their careers and reputations if they don’t follow you. Auba and Ozil are much more secure in their reputations and towards the end of their careers and even they are now casually hated by Arsenal fans. It could prove more difficult for someone younger to be benched and labelled a bad influence. I’m not sure it will work to the club’s benefit, but even if it does, I hate it.
For this season, top 4 was always a reasonable target. If we get it, ok, it justifies some of his gambles (even if I dislike them for what they represent) If we miss out, I’m not sure we’ll have a better chance next season. Prime targets may find CL clubs to move to, there’s the World Cup disruption, and another season of midweek fixtures. I’m not sure Arteta can manage all of that and still deliver results. And if it goes poorly, I think you’re looking at some of these young stars looking to move away, and potentially, the club selling them in the name of needing money to start again with a new manager.
And I suspect the young players’ strategem is primarily a hedge against Arteta failing, because despite the transfer and severance fees we’ve paid, we’ve been ruthlessly pushing the wage bill down. I think we reached almost 70% wages to turnover last seasons. We’ll have more money with crowds back and the new tv deal, but I reckon we’re looking to be closer to 50%, with or without CL, and that is why we didn’t sign players in January.
+1
The jury is out on the medium and long term, both in terms of what Arteta can deliver and how his relationship with players develops. It’s all an unknown and we just have to let it play out.
This wage bill reduction is definitely a big feature of what we’re doing, it seems to be driving a lot of decisions and it can be viewed both negatively and positively.
Negatively – we are more interested in cutting costs for the owner’s profits than in winning, manager is hedging against failure.
Positively – we are getting leaner and more efficient and creating room on the balance sheet for more acquisitions.
The hedging against failure argument depends on what happens next. Personally I don’t think there’s going to be anywhere for Arteta to hide, never mind how old the team is. With his actions he’s told the owners that he can deliver results with a young team of hand-picked players, and that he doesn’t need (or want) the high-salary stars. It’s bold. There’s definitely an element of selling the future in what he’s doing, but I would fully expect him to go if he doesn’t deliver the improvement he’s promised.
I sort of agree with you.
But, has he sold them on that idea or have they told him that’s what he gets and it buys him time too?
Because earlier we had him sign Cedric, Mari, Willian and openly mock the idea of playing youngsters in more games by creating a strawman of fans wanting 11 homegrown young players.
After the SL fell apart, Arteta claimed he didn’t know (I’m willing to bet this is a lie) and that he trusts the owners have the club’s best interests at heart. It’s only then we saw this idea of buying U23 players being pushed as something great but also needing more time (an undefined amount). At this time the club’s media messaging also changed from Arteta being a genius manager to a young, developing manager growing together with a young squad.
I believe he’s never really given Pepe a chance because he was the one in line to be sold to push the wage bill down, but then he and Auba had some disagreement and he pushed him out instead. It might also explain some of his confusing moves. Like flip flops on Xhaka and AMN.
I guess what I’m saying, and here is where I agree with you, is that Arteta is being backed but he is under more pressure than is apparent. My guess is KSE will give him a new contract at the end of this season, but that doesn’t guarantee they won’t sack him by the end of the next. Even more so if he doesn’t secure top 4/CL football either of these seasons.
I see what you’re saying.
I’m not sure that I’ve seen the idea being pushed from the club that the move to the younger squad demands even more patience from fans. Like, I don’t remember a change of emphasis really – from day one, even when he brought Mari, Cedric, Luiz, Willian et al on board, there was a focus on patience, evolution and future rewards.
That has been the consistent message on playing the kids as well – patience. I disagree that Arteta created a strawman. Freddie Ljungberg came in, tore up the squad sheet and played Saka and Chambers in defence, plus AMN, Martinelli, ESR (for his debut), and Nelson all together in the league against Everton. A lot of the supporters, including myself, got a bit overexcited about that and wanted more of the same. Arteta came in and poured cold water on that.
I don’t remember a change in messaging from the club about Arteta at the time of the Super League fiasco either, but perhaps I’m missing something.
It could be that the failure of the SL has something to do with the move to younger players and lower wages, but basically I think the failure of the senior players to deliver in Arteta’s system (not apportioning blame for that here) probably brought forward a planned transition to a younger squad ahead of schedule – and yes, that has ramped up the pressure on the manager, not reduced it.
The 11 young players quote came in the aftermath of some questions about Martinelli, ESR, Nelson, Eddie not being given chances. Also bringing on Elneny instead of Azeez in a game we’re winning 4-1. It was a strawman because no one was asking for a full youth team. People were just asking why the youth aren’t being played even when there are opportunities for them.
By the way, apart from the money spent and wasted by Arteta, he has been incredibly lucky to have the young talent at the club that he’s had. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s made the best use of it all.
But it’s why I’m now Ok with him staying. The damage has been done. Might as well see it through.
Relative to team strength, feels like we’re only clearly behind City and Pool. Chelsea are somewhat better, but honestly, if we picked up a strong striker, I’d say equal. Their big striker just set a record for fewest touches in a 90min match. I’d say haha, but that would probably guarantee him scoring against us.
We should have beaten Utd in most of the recent matches. Their defense is worse than ours, their midfield probably as well. And while they have a very good attack, it’s also very dysfunctional.
‘Relative to team strength, feels like we’re only clearly behind City and Pool. Chelsea are somewhat better, but honestly, if we picked up a strong striker, I’d say equal’
Gentle reminder : Chelsea are the European champions
Understood. However, if we were to win the games in hand, we’d only be 2 pts behind them, and most of the recent matches against them have been close. Last season we beat them home and away. In head to head matches, they haven’t looked a lot better than us, unlike City and Pool.
ESR is one of my favourite players and I think it was when Wenger was still here that I’d picked him as the standout player in his age group (Saka snuck up on me and thanks to Freddie for fasttracking him)
He’s a different player to Cesc obviously and not as good yet, but like Cesc he always seems to have time on the ball. But I don’t like him at 9 or false 9. I think he can play it and maybe it’ll even aid his development. I just don’t think that’s his best position and I hope we don’t expect him to carry the burden.
center forward is such a difficult position to play. people don’t realize how much goes into playing the position; how badly you get beaten up. if it was just about the ability to score goals, why didn’t alexis or theo walcott thrive there? what does 20-year old emile have that alexis didn’t? if it was jsut about scoring goals, why doesn’t sadio mane or mohammed salah play center forward for liverpool?
the problem with lacazette is the same as it was with aubameyang before he left; arteta strapped that armband on him. as a result, he can’t just focus on scoring goals, which is the hardest thing to do in football. nope, he’s got to try and lead a team full of youngsters as well. once again, it’s not easy.
auba had four league goals before he left. in his first start for barcelona on sunday, he got a hat trick in just over an hour. that’s the difference being forced to lead a young team can make. right now, lacazette is the best option for arsenal at center forward. you guys need to stop with these bad ideas.
“people don’t realize how much goes into playing the position; how badly you get beaten up.”
Hence my comment earlier about how Laca has learned to go down and take fouls. Guys who stand there and try to hold every ball get their legs taken out. Until ESR learns that, it’s risky to have him as 9. Still he has the skill set, but as you say it’s so much more than just the capability. They take a real beating, and they have to cover a ton of ground for Arteta. A lot to ask.
i agree that with the ability to not take significant damage by absorbing numerous unnecessary fouls. van persie and wilshere used to do that and they were chronically injured. van persie learned later in his career to avoid those some of those dangerous challenges.
emile has the ability to score but that doesn’t transfer into the skill set to be a center forward. i’ve said continually that all center forwards are strikers but not all strikers are center forwards. it’s a different game.
Josh
You might be right that Laca may be the best option we have right now in the squad but that just shows why we need to spend some more money this summer. I agree that suggesting ESR is the answer as a false 9 is highly questionable at best. Arteta tried that once against Villarreal and the comments with regards to his managerial IQ on this blog were incredibly negative.
I also agree that the objective is for the team the score as many goals as possible. However the fact the team has struggled is the problem. Its not just this season but its been the same for the last 2 years. Last season we scored 55 and this year on pace to score around 59 and that is just not enough. We don’t have overwhelming firepower throughout the squad to carry a CF who does not score. CF should be in the best position on the pitch to score goals. Again I understand your idea of the importance of CF in facilitating the attack but you can’t get away from simple math and I think its clear we absolutely need a lot more from a CF then Laca who is currently on pace to score 5 goals this season. We need a significant upgrade at that position if we hope to compete with other CL level clubs.
Shard
“By the way, apart from the money spent and wasted by Arteta, he has been incredibly lucky to have the young talent at the club that he’s had”
During the last 12 years of the Wenger era starting in 2006 we have probably had close to triple digits of heavily hyped talented young players like Walcott, Bendtner, Diaby, Denilson, Song, Aliadadaire, JET, Afobe, Aneke, Wilshere, Wojo Szczesny, Ox, Iwobe, Welbeck, Sanogo etc etc etc etc and all had the advantage of playing in a chance rich environment and yet I can’t think of a single one who developed into the type of player who could be the star that carries a top 4 team. You can’t it both ways. If you really believe managers develop young players then suggesting that Arteta was just lucky and not giving him the same credit we would give Arsene or another manager we liked seems very disingenuous
I mentioned money because it would cost many tens of millions more to have brought in such talent to the club and he got them for free. Hence, lucky.
I’m not thrilled playing Emile at false 9 either, because he does what he does where he does it very effectively. He’s our most productive and reliable goalscorer where we play him. I’d not want to jeopardise that, at all. But I’m not dismissing the idea without examining what it means. If he is to play there it does not automatically mean that it’s the traditional CF role. He would not be doing the things that Laca does. It would require a different set of build up tactics. The idea, as I read it, is to improve productivity centrally. Most teams do not employ an old-fashioned 9. Neither of the 2 league leading teams do.
What we have with Laca is working up to a point, but we shouldn’t pretend that his poor production is not a problem. It is. We’ve already seen teams nullify our wide threats. He needs to be able to provide good cutting edge as well. He does not. We’re going to have to accept Laca’s goalscoring shortcomings, and embrace what he does bring to the table, even if he’s not truly elite. Keep our formation and structure, and work hard to upgrade it in the summer.
Before we rave about Laca’s knit play a CF, I suggest we go watch a tape of Harry Kane against City. First rate CF play, WITH the productivity. Yes, he’s one of the very best centre forwards in the world and I’m not directly comparing them, but perhaps we need to adjust our horizons with respect to the standard we should at least try to come close to. But as I said, Laca is the best we have, and I’d continue to start him for the rest of the season.
Bill, I havent seen anyone argue that we should develop a particular young player to carry the team. Carrying Arsenal nearly broke Fabregas. You have to team build through a combination of inward organic growth and promotion, market purchase of young high potentials that can grow in footballing and financial value, and market purchase of players who cc a contribute now.
In thinking about ESR as a potential 9 or false 9, I see him more in the mold of Firmino or Messi. I’m not saying he has Messi level skill, but there’s no expectation that Messi is operating back to goal the way Giroud, or less effectively, Lacazette does.
Messi does, and ESR might, bring a different set of value and skill which might lead to more scoring.
Laca might be the best option we have, but I’m not 100% convinced of that. If he continues not scoring, seems like sooner or later that will come back to bite us. And while he has created chances, he’s also blown a few. At least twice in recent matches we’ve had rapid counters where he couldn’t keep up and left other Arsenal players frustrated. Martinelli, Pepe or ESR might not be any better, but we haven’t given any of them even close to the amount of time in that role that Laca has had.
What’s ironic is that we bought Laca in part to compensate for Giroud’s low productivity in that classic 9 role. Now he makes Arsenal Giroud look positively Lewandowskian in his goal returns.
I know that Josh has argued over the years that he should have been used as a mobile complement to the big CF in a front 2, and I agree with that. It’s interesting that the classic 9 is the role that he himself has come to assume for us.
Yeah, even several years older Giroud at Milan is arguably having a better season. Sigh.
I think the Laca/Auba partnership at least sometimes fit that model, even if Auba wasn’t quite a big central CF. But then Auba’s situation turned down, and the youngsters improved, and the whole equation changed.
Our draw with Burnley doesn’t look so bad (they’re a team i was wary about going in anyway)
They took a point off us, a point off United and beat Spurs today. Thank you, Burnley.
Top 2 is done and dusted imo, but the race from 3 to 7 is something.
Arsene was always praised for his ability to develop youth but I don’t think Arsene had a single academy grad score more then 10 goals in a season. If ESR scores 1 more goal this season Arteta will have done something in 3 years that Arsene could not do in 15+ years. if Saka makes it to 10 then Arteta will have done a double. If you are someone who believes the manager is important for youth development then we have to give Arteta a heck of lot of credit for what he has done.
Claude
With the squad as currently constructed we need our youth players to carry the teams attack and scoring load. Like it or not we need to spend the money to buy a couple players who can score goals.
bill, you keep making this argument, essentially, with yourself. no one has argued that they expect academy guys to lead the team anywhere.
the purpose of the academy is to develop players for the first team. most won’t get anywhere near the first team. some make a small impact while others make a bigger impact. you just look for academy guys who have the potential to make an impact in the first team.
arsenal are fortunate right now because they have two guys from the academy that were good enough for the first team.
Arsene’s self stated goal at the start of the “project youth” era around 2006 was to build his own superstars from youth players rather then having to rely on buying high priced established star players from the transfer market. I would argue the record is clear we had very little success with building star players from the ground up. That is not a knock on Arsene but it shows how incredibly difficult it is to develop the star players from youth ranks and how low percentage it is to try and build your team around home grown stars. Realistically I don’t think we can expect any manager to be successful with that strategy. If Arteta somehow makes it work, I think it would be a truly amazing feat.