If only Arsenal could play the bottom eight teams three times a season! Against the bottom 8 sides, Arsenal have played 7, won 5, drawn 1, and lost 1. That’s 2.29 ppg and a plus 7 goal difference. As an aside, the worst team against the bottom 8 (plus Arsenal) is Burnley with 0.57 ppg. Against the top 8 teams Arsenal have just 1ppg and a -10 goal difference. And against the middle 8 teams (there are some overlaps between bottom 8 and middle 8) Arsenal are third best with 1.57 ppg and +3 goal difference. And if I look at the table between the bottom 15 teams Arsenal are 2nd best with 2.17 ppg, but a whopping +11 goal difference.
Last season, against the similar bottom 15 teams Arsenal earned just 1.71 ppg and had a +18 goal difference. We still have 16 matches to play against these bottom teams but perhaps this is part of the “process” that Arteta talks about? If we can get better against these bottom teams and stay the same against the top five (last season we earned 1.3 ppg against the top five), we will have improved. No question about that. But the problem is that Arsenal took 1.3 ppg against the top five last season and we have taken 0 points (with a -12 GD) against the top 5 this season.
To put that into perspective, there are 10 matches between these teams. For Arsenal to get the same number of points from their games against top teams that they achieved last season, they would have to go virtually undefeated in their final 6 matches against these teams (win 4 and draw 1). That’s not going to happen.
And I think that this very clear schism between Arsenal’s record against the bottom 15 and the top 4 goes a long way toward explaining the split personality of the fans over how Arsenal play. Because hilariously, if we get 0 points from all 10 matches against the top teams, and earn 2.17 ppg against the bottom 15, we will finish the season with.. 61 points which isn’t an improvement.
For the record, I don’t think any of that will happen. If I were to guess as to what will happen it’s that we will “revert to the mean” and end up somewhere between 55-65 points. I know that’s a large spread but hey, I’m allowed to make up whatever numbers I want.
For the game yesterday it was possibly the best execution of Artetaball we have seen in the two years he’s been managing us. The first goal was prime example of this.
Taking a throw-in, Arsenal then made 10 passes around the back to draw out the Southampton press and create the space for the psuedo-counter-attack that you can sometimes develop from this sort of play. Then they needed five absolutely pinpoint perfect passes to bypass the press and then a nice carry by Saka, and then a perfect cross for Lacazette to score.
There were a lot of dicey passes in that move. It took a lot of courage and belief to make those passes, something that has been missing in quite a few Arsenal contests this season. I think we have to give some credit to Arteta there: he did seem to have been right about the level of bravery his players were showing this season. Especially because after that goal Arsenal kept attacking.
That made the game fun. And for the first time this year, I thought Arsenal put together a good, attacking performance for the full 90 minutes. I know it wasn’t our most dominant xG match but it just felt more attacking than, say, against Norwich.
That could just be my faulty memory but it could also be that backheel pass from Øde from which we hit the post, or that cutback by Saka late in the game which was unlucky to be blocked. It wasn’t just the xG, it was the razzle dazzle we were putting on last night. And that is what I want from football – plus winning!
There are some hints that perhaps this young team is starting to blossom? I can see that. There are also some who are cautioning that this is a young team, getting good results against bottom teams at home. I can also see that. We are tied with Man City on points at home (19) but we’ve also had one of the easiest home schedules of any team so far this season. And as for the 0 points from top five teams, those have also largely been away games, with big losses to City and Liverpool who are the two best teams in football right now. So, no huge shame there.
Anyway, as usual, no conclusions can be drawn. Plenty still to argue. But if I were to come away from that game with anything I would simply say, it was a good match.
Big test on the 15th against WHam.
I think the change in attitude is starting to show, and that could be affecting out record against the top 5. Last year super Conservative game plan meant we pick up points against top 5 (they were for the most of it smash and grab I think?) And drop points everywhere else. At least now we are going a bit more “creative” (eg pass your way out of the press) but we really are struggling quality wise against top opposition. Also confidence not there 100%, first 20 minutes was really bad.
Wet Spam just drew against *checks* Burnley. We need to be more Burnley.
(Of course we don’t – Wednesday is going to be really fascinating! Enjoyed this match though 🙂
In my professional opinion, WHam will counter attack us.
Just a hunch.
Good analysis. I really enjoyed the Lacazette goal (if it’s Saturday, it’s Beat The Press, geddit? 🙂), and overall, the way we played. Saka, for a young fella, makes really good decisions most of the time. It took Martinelli 2 tries, and probably a halftime scolding, to make a similar cutback for the again excellent Ode against United. First time he had his head down and shot to de Gea’s near post with no daylight between him and it.
Enjoy it because you won’t find a more compliant defence. They were so easily pulled out of position by our play out the back. Our play was good, one touch football, but they gave Saka acres to run into.
Shame Norwich couldn’t hold United.
Tim, permit me a little sidebar. Aubameyang.
PEA is getting a right royal kicking in the British press, continuing from yesterday into today. Everyone, from Shearer, to Sutton to Arsenal blogs is calling for him to be stripped of the captaincy. It was not at all helpful for Arteta to tell the world that he was dropped for disciplinary breach, and for someone at Arsenal to leak to The Athletic that it was because he came back late from a club approved personal trip. Mikel even spoke primly of his “non negotiables”. A media distraction and drama around your captain does not help him (to whom you have a duty of care, despite his breach) or the club.
This is where the ex-journo in me is in conflict with the Arsenal fan. Disclosure, straightforwardness from public officials is what I like when being the former. But as an Arsenal fan, it was a terrible decision by Arteta. Maybe it is a public foreshadowing/justification what he plans to next, but it damages the club. Some folks will say he needs to be ruthless in changing the culture, but such a public display does not help the club. And let me repeat — an employer has a duty of care to employees, even ones you commit breaches. How is Auba feeling today, with all this shit put out in the open by his manager?
Greg, you want another example of a difference between Arsene and Arteta in how they treat players? This is it.
Lot of complicated things about this.
First, captaincy is some weird thing that pretty much only Brits worry about. I think they long for the times when your captain was the drill sergeant and smacked heads in the locker room but this isn’t 1998 anymore and players won’t stand for that.
Second, there’s a lot of speculation that Auba did this because he was taken off against Man U and dropped against Everton. Which has led to speculation that the dropping was retribution.
Third, dropping a guy because he was late from a club sanctioned trip seems like a really harsh punishment. Wasn’t Willian late from a club sanctioned trip or something? But if this is a rule that is iron clad applied the same for everyone then I’m ok with that.
Fourth, Arteta coming out to the press was literally only for his benefit. A lot of folks gobble up this strong man coach nonsense and he’ll make himself look better in their eyes for it.
Fifth, Auba will be stripped of the captaincy. I can’t see any way around it.
Sixth, I wonder who will get this Monkey’s Paw next? I’d bet it will be Ramsdale.
Seventh, I don’t care about any of this stuff. I used to but it doesn’t matter as much to me anymore.
Eighth, I still don’t like Arteta and especially don’t like the way he treats players like children.
Ninth, player power is a real thing. Players make 10x what a coach makes and coach needs the players to perform or he will get fired. This is a dangerous game he’s playing here. He could quickly lose the dressing room if he’s not careful.
Tenth, Auba is on his way out. No question. Always was. We are going to lose him and Lacazette this summer. Huge summer for us to find a striker or we will be in trouble next season.
Eleventh, I could probably talk more about this but it’s sapping my will to live.
Well explained. We have a hectic Christmas/new year programme to get through and then the start of the FA Cup. We’ll need all hands on deck, including Auba’s. Playing things like this, now, is self-harming. Even if he’s gone in the summer, we have 5.5 more months of him. Xhaka was stripped for Auba, Auba is stripped for _____. Xhaka’s transgressions at least were fully public. PEA’s was brought to our attention by his manager. Situation needed more deft handling.
Anyway, I hear you on point eleven 🤐
Sigh. Arsenal.
Agreed Claude, Wenger would probably have fudged it in the press conference, come up with a story to protect his player.
I understand you don’t like what Arteta did, and I can see why, even if I don’t feel the same. Arseblog has a balanced take on it this morning which I mostly agree with.
Arteta didn’t “come out to the press” to show off his authority, he was asked a direct question why Auba wasn’t in the side. He answered it. Maybe he shouldn’t have, but Auba put him in a difficult position on that with his Insta. The scale of the fallout is up to the people involved.
I have a strong feeling that Arteta is laying the ground work for a bloodless excising of PEA.
Or maybe it’s just Auba being Auba. Maybe he’s not happy when he’s not scoring and that manifests in I’ll discipline. We’ve seen it before. He’s been nothing short of ghastly in front of goal for over a month now and if nothing else maybe this little break will recharge him mentally. He has to set the right examples for the rest of the team and this is just showing the others that nobody is above the law. If I’m blaming Arteta for something on this one, it’s for not giving him a break sooner. It was clear the squad needed some freshening in recent fixtures and for me he was too cautious to shake it up. He isn’t rotating and using his substitutions in ways that make sense to me, but that will have to change this month.
Conjecture (maybe this, maybe that) is just that…conjecture. You dont know the exact circumstances of the incident. None of us do. What we DO know is that Arteta chose to make public, something that many would regard as an internal matter. He shouldnt have.
Did I claim to know the exact circumstances?
Should he have lied?
Yes.
Or gone the whole hog and told us what happened.
this is just playing to the gallery at the cost of the player. We haven’t heard Auba’s version of events and are unlikely to from a club platform.
Athletic today says he was in France to bring his mother back with him, and reached training on time but had taken a later flight than planned and didn’t know there was another covid test to be taken in England. He took one in France.
It all seems like an excuse to make getting rid of Auba more palatable and blame his form on him alone and not on the system.
Shard, this new, reported info is why I cautioned against jumping to conclusions and offering speculative “maybes” helpful to Arteta. We are now in a position where, in PR and public facing terms, club and player are competing in narratives. Briefing against one another. Anyone could see that this is where things would go. It’s poisonous. Does Mikel think that the players would rally to him if he puts the skipper under “heavy manners”? (as they say in Jamaica)
Thing that got me in this totally unnecessary reveal was his huffy, sanctimonious mention of his “non negotiables”. All he succeeded in doing there is coming across like an underage headmaster/principal.
So, to Doc’s question… should he have lied? It’s not that simple. PR is a big boys’ game. There are lies and there are necessary evasions… necessary evasions because putting some stuff in the public domain will not be worth the press and dressing room distraction. He poured fuel on a flame. For what?
Arsene was the master at finding a “groin strain” somewhere. In one instance he told a reporter “I don’t have to tell you that”. Did he tell artful fibs? Absolutely. But he never broke the dressing room code, and would never publicly throw a player under the bus.
I leave it to Doc to decide whether Arsene acted admirably in these instances, but that is an approach that I prefer.
There are a number of ways Mikel could have played this. I think he chose the wrong one. It just amplified, again, the misgivings I have about how he treats players.
Arteta said in revealing the breach that his punishment is now starting. I hope that that does not mean Ozilisation. Even if Auba leaves in the summer, we will need him in the short term. It’s a squad game, and they come thick and fast in the winter.
Shard, I can’t tell if your opening line is in answer to my first or second question. I think it’s the second.
“It all seems like an excuse to make getting rid of Auba more palatable and blame his form on him alone and not on the system.”
I could see that line of reasoning normally, but no system in the world is going to help when he just can’t seem to get a clean strike on the ball for the past month. He needs time off to recharge himself and come back as the player we all know he can be. The system asks him to be the focal point of the press, time it and initiate it, which he’s done admirably well. It asks him to run the channels and combine with the wingers, which he’s also done well. I don’t think he’s lazy or anything like it. Most crucially, it asks him to make the most out of shots in the box that fall to him, and in that department he has been abysmal. He has been missing chances that he would normally gobble up, like at the end of the Everton game, and a couple of close range pokes and penalties against MU and Watford. He left a hat trick on the pitch against Watford. I don’t know why this is happening, but I can’t find any way to blame his manager or his teammates for simply not hitting the target, tame shots and not making solid contact with the ball. He simply has to put those away or he deserves to lose his place in the team on merit to someone who can. It seems mental rather than physical to me but it’s pure speculation on my part.
Definitely getting some Ozil vibes from some folks about this one, like it’s anyone’s fault but the player’s that he’s out of form and underperforming his contract and status. How has Ozil done since he was bought out, by the way, since he’s gotten out from under the draconian Arteta yoke? Not even getting regular starts at Fenerbahce, that’s how. Eight appearances for the season and only half of those in the domestic competition. Some players decline slowly as they age (see Gareth Barry, James Milner, etc.) Others, like Ozil, decline very quickly, and it seems nearly impossible to predict from where I’m standing.
Auba’s not Ozil, obviously. His story is not yet fully written. I desperately hope for the sake of our goal-challeneged team that this is just a dip in form and he’s not fallen off of a cliff, never to return. And if it’s the latter: yes, the club should’ve probably have seen this coming, so if you’re desperate to blame someone else, I’ll give you that one. Playing devil’s advocate, tt’s also worth entertaining the alternate universe in which Arsenal don’t sign Aubameyang, he goes to Manchester City or Chelsea on a Bosman and bangs in a hat trick against us next time we see him while we wring our hands about why Eddie Nketiah can’t break his PL duck. All in all, even if this is the end of Auba as we knew him, his contract was an overpay, but an overpay Arsenal couldn’t afford NOT to make at the time. We were put in that position though by our own lack of long term planning at the position, hamstrung by other bad deals on ageing and underperforming players.
In football, you gotta know when an asset is declining and know when to cut the cord, especially with popular players. And you’ve gotta have a plan B and a plan C for that eventuality years in advance. Wenger was great at moving people on at the right time while they still retained value and having their heir apparent waiting in the wings. Most of the time, that worked out great. At some point though the club started to keep players around for too long and even began investing in journeymen and over 30s. We’re still reaping what we’ve sown with that policy. We’ve made the same mistake Auba as we did with Ozil and now face the same type of situation. Star player underperforming, near the end of his career, trying to hang on, not quite managing it, BUUUT he has to do the business because if he can’t, nobody else will.
Someone has seriously misled you about Ozil, Doc. He has 17 appearances for Fenerbache this season (13 in the league, 8 starts), with 1029 minutes played overall (so gametime equivalent to just over 11 90s). Also, Ozil has started and captained the side in 4 of the last 5 league games (3 90s + 1 88), and he has 3G + 1A in his last 5 league appearances. As it happens, Ozil is tied for most G + A in the league for Fenerbache this season (5G + 2A in 752 mins over 13 appearances), despite having multiple injury problems and seemingly falling out with the coach.
Interestingly, he is also currently outperforming all of Arsenal’s leading attackers in league play: Only Smith Rowe has 5G + 2A (but in 1143 vs. 752 mins), while Auba has 4G + 1A (1040 mins), Odegaard has 4G (918 mins), and Saka has 2G + 3A (1160 mins).
So I guess it’s fair to say that – for now, at least – Ozil is doing pretty well in terms of attacking output since he’s gotten out from under the draconian Arteta yoke. And he’s mostly doing it from LW rather than his preferred CAM position. Sad as it is to say, if you want an example of sudden dramatic decline based on this season’s performances, Ramsey is a better pick (0G + 0A in 112 mins over 5 appearances for Juventus so far).
Ramsey was murdered by Juventus.
*Eep. Fenerbahce, obvs.
Fair point. Do you have any idea what happened? I saw Ramsey saying something about Juventus mismanaging his fitness. And I guess he was never used for the specific midfield role that the DoF supposedly signed him for. That said, even when he was getting gametime, his G+A numbers have still been lower than I would have expected (but maybe still decent for someone relegated to being a CR7 fluffer for most of his matches?).
I stand corrected. My source was wikipedia and it was not a deep dive. Thanks for the supplement. I’m glad he’s doing well.
Happy
1. to see our Number 8 finding his groove. Developing a nice knack for being in the right place, and has the composure to finish well. A key ingredient in Artetaball, I’d say
2. to see Pepe get some minutes, albeit not very many. We’ll need everyone for the coming period. Some players not in our best XI will even get starts, because of the need for rest and rotation
WHam, on form, edge us. Theyre Top 5 for a reason, and Im getting Everton vibes with that game. So/ton area poor team, but you have to like how we attacked them. We have to go on the front foot in midweek.
Auba had difficulties at BvB also. He was fined and suspended for breaking rules at the storied German club.
Not to worry though, when he and Laca go next year, l am confident we’ll bring in another BvB superstar, Erling Braut Haaland in for a nominal fee and throw in an Oyster card for the tube.
Picadilly Line. Arsenal Station?
Great review Tim.
An excellent game. Certainly no handbrake in this one. None of us really have any idea of what sort of game plans and instructions the manager sends his players out onto the pitch with. I have seen enough good games over the last couple years to suggest at least to me the players are not being given instructions to play defensive football handbrake football and avoid attacking. Yesterday was a good game and there will be more like that but there will also be more games like the recent loss to Everton. One good game or a run of a few good games does not mean we have finally solved the puzzle and everything will be up from now and 1 or 2 bad games does not mean the manager and the team have lost it. Ups and downs are the norm. Perhaps we can find a way to climb back into a Europa league spot this season and then we need buy a couple goal scoring forwards if we hope to continue to climbing back into contention for the top 4.
I don’t have much to contribute on the game. I haven’t watched it again, and I slept off after we went 2-0 up. Not blaming the football. Just been keeping too many late nights.
I did think we were really bad for the first 20 minutes or so. I like the courage for the 1st goal but needing like 5 perfect passes is a systemic weakness imo. Better defensive decisions than Southampton will catch us out. Still, happy with the win. We’re now 4 points down on last season’s fixtures, by my calculations.
Perfect passing is the best (only?) way to break a high press, something we haven’t been very good at, so in addition to scoring the goal (great finish too!) I saw it as a good sign that perhaps we’re getting better at playing out from the back. Of course, one swallow doth not a summer make…
We’ve hit the 38 game mark in the fabled calendar year table for 2021! That’s right, the fake season is over!
Aaaaand, we’re 6th! Exactly where we are in the current table. 67 points, +18 GD which would have put us in a 5th place finish last season.
I would back the top end of Tim’s prediction based on nothing but the old guts (slaps belly). Consistency should slowly improve from this team including the squad players (I think that’s part of the thinking behind this style of systematic coaching), and it looks like we are doing something right on injuries.
However it happened, I’m glad something moved on Auba because we need more up top, let’s hope whatever solutions are found, whether that’s just an improved Auba, that they stick.
Of course, West Ham will now murder us in our beds and my optimism will vanish just like that (poof).
I was really happy to see MO8’s performance – I am stepping back from my concerns over his quickness (read – I was wrong) That backheel was exquisite and should’ve created a goal. I’m happy to take 3 points, and admired our well-played build up in the goal by Laca. It’s best attacking performance I can recall when ESR was not on the pitch, and that’s reassuring.
Having said that, I was not impressed by the overall performance. We were so sloppy on the ball and an opponent with any attacking capability would have made us pay, I suspect. Our distances were dreadful in a lot of cases and our defense looked far from solid. I think we will get eaten alive by decent teams if we persist with Xhaka in midfield. Just seeing his inability to cover space makes me shudder. I will take Sambi’s errors over Xhaka’s any day.
I could also do without the Auba drama. Too many distractions for a young team and young manager. Putting my hands over my eyes for Wednesday. Glad we’re at home, per Tim’s analysis.
Hate the Auba drama. I don’t care whose fault it is, I just hate it—not what we needed at this time of year.
Does anyone else think that Arteta seriously needs to work on his man management? It seems like there is literally always at least one player who there is a problem with. With so many different players over the course of two years and the only common denominator being Arteta, it is difficult for me to conclude otherwise. And some of his decisions have been truly shocking—the failed Saliba loan last year, for one. The treatment of AMN another one.
Thanks for the data table:
– Who’d have thunk WHam are a strata above Arsenal?
– Spuds and Arsenal are flat track bullies
– Even though the top 3 have huge +GD no-one’s running away (yet).
In Arteta’s initial months much was made how he’d tightened defence and improved against the top sides. Current results against the top sides are probably Arsenal’s worst ever. What a flip.
Success this season is how we perform relative to Utd and Spuds. It’s very even at the mo (just over half the season to play).
When a footballer or any elite athlete declines, the first thing that goes is his legs. Speed diminishes. That is a big part of Auba’s game. So if youre not telling us conclusively that Aubameyang has lost that burst over 10 yards (the so called yard of pace), then we should probably go easy on casually talking his permanent decline — whether as a possibility, or as an actuality.
The horrible miskick against Everton shows a player down on form and self belief, and probably needing the metaphorical hug. I see a player who has lost his belief, not his burst. Perhaps Tim has stats that would show otherwise, but I havent seen a slowing. Yes, he’s been finishing like crap of late. And if that is the case, he needs coaxing back to goalscoring form. So it might be a good idea to pump the brakes on the eulogies. Dropping him from the first XI can be justified in footballing terms, and a spell on the bench is probably be the best thing for him. No one can fault Mikel for doing that.
This latest stuff makes the job of restoring him harder. Pro athletes aren’t delicate wallflowers, but it stands to reason that if Auba’s current problems in front of goal are in his head, you need to manage him savvily. Not only in his interest, but the coach’s self interest.
And let’s remember one thing. Mikel pursued him hard to renew the contract. Really hard. And I think he was right to do so. Im seeing many gooners being wise after the event now, but who were happy with the result at the time.
Before this latest ban, Auba had only been out of the starting XI for one game. That’s because his finishing against ManU was rank bad. If his fitness metrics are down, he isnt playing as much as he did. The coaching staff isnt stupid.
Auba is an Arsenal player, and we need him for the remaining three-fifths of the season, irrespective of whether he’ll be gone in the summer. A week in football is a long time. Let’s bin the premature eulogies, get real, and get him back on track in service of this team.
Doc raised some good points re Auba earlier. You have to question whether using a 32 year old finisher to lead the press and run the channels is the best strategy? I’d want him full of energy stationed 30 yards from goal chasing balls into the box. The kids can press and shuttle.
That was a good point from Doc, in what was generally a thoughtful exposition.
I’d say though that modern coaches in certain team sports dont give you a look in if you don’t or won’t play D. It’ll take some really smart tactics for Auba to be afforded that luxury. Either that, you need a really special cast around you (which Arsenal is not, in the grand scheme).
Not so much won’t play D but how you play D. Modern football is increasingly proactive (pressing, counter pressure, winning possession higher up the pitch). And not just the usual suspects but Brentford , Villa, Leeds and many more. Arteta seems wedded to a 90s version of passive defence which is contrary to attacking football. Sure you’re gonna beat most sides ‘cause you have better players but there’s a ceiling and I think this season’s results back that up.
Bravo Claude. I don’t see his burst noticeably diminished. I too think he’s just not in form. Hasty conclusions galore out there.
I wish we could all keep in mind that we’re blind to the day-to-day interactions between coach and player. We see the big, visible incidents and build a narrative from those few data points. It’s very possible he treats Auba with kid gloves compared to other players. That might take many forms – more 1 on 1 talks – on the pitch or in the office, in texts, on the phone. He might be giving him props/support and virtual hugs all the time for all we know. He might be combining carrots and sticks. He also may have had a talk with Auba before announcing this suspension, explaining what he was doing and why. This is why speculating about these incidents, and drawing conclusions about a manager, his players and the nature of their relationships has such little interest for me, and reveals so little. It’s the sporting version of gossip and anyone can twist it to fit a narrative. The only thing that matters to me is how the players and team respond/perform. An early Auba goal vs. WHAM and it’s possible bygones are bygones. We can only hope.
I’m not trying any conclusions only exploring hypotheticals. As I said above I desperately hope it’s just a dip in form and I too think this is mental.Watching a striker of his caliber miss these kinds of chances as one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen in football.
He’s always missed big chances. I think last time I looked it up, he’s about a 50-50 scorer of his big chances.
Looking at non-penalty big chances:
This season he’s missed 4 and scored 3
In 2020/21 he missed 7 and scored 4
In 2019/20 he missed 10 and scored 16 (a very unusual return)
In 2018/19 he missed 23 and scored 9
In 2017/18 he missed 6 and scored 6 (for Arsenal)
I know that’s a point you’ve always made, and I respect that. The eye test tells me it hasn’t been anything close to 50/50 recently and it worries me.
Our best bet would be to sell Auba while we still can. Doc’s analysis is correct with regard to how players decline. Some fade slowly while other like Willian simply drop off the cliff. Again if we look what has happened at Arsenal in this century every one of our notable attacking players started to decline in their early 30’s or even before and not a single one I can think of has been productive in his age 32 season. Even if you ignore the recent misses as a bad run of form its clear that his production has been declining for 1 1/2 seasons. Even Tim noted that age was taking its toll before the missed those chances of the last few games. When players start the fade the first thing that often goes is mental. Doc has pointed out what happened to Ozil. Mesut did not really lose his speed and quickness first but it was his ability to visualize openings and execute the pinpoint final 1/3 that faded before his speed started to drop. Most pro golfers when asked what the first part of their game to start declining when they hit the early to mid 40’s will say its the putting.
The bottom line is by far the most likely thing that is happening to Auba is the end of career decline and that can’t be a surprise to anyone who has watched Arsenal in this century. Next year he will be 33 and he is certainly not going to be part of any future top 4 teams. If we can sell him now and use the money to fund the acquisition of a striker it might be the best thing for the short term and it will definitely be the best thing for the long term.
No one is buying a 32 year old on £350k a week. Even if he was scoring bags of goals.
When players start the fade the first thing that often goes is mental… Mesut did not really lose his speed and quickness first but it was his ability to visualize openings and execute the pinpoint final 1/3 that faded before his speed started to drop.
____________
You totally, absolutely made that up, Bill.
I didn’t just make that up. I mentioned this is a comment the other day. Mesut played something like 68 league games with Auba and most of those were during the time when Auba was one of the most effective strikers in the world. Mesut only created 1 single assist on a goal that Auba scored during those 68 games. That seems utterly impossible because you would think someone like Ozil who touched the ball as often and makes as many passes as Ozil would have created 10 assists 10 Auba just by accident. The problem was Ozil just stopped making effective assist creating passes in the penalty box in the latter years of his Arsenal career.
You can look around world football and find some notable exceptions such as Jamey Vardy. I have not done a detailed study of all of world football but watching the PL its clear the majority of attacking players start to decline around age 30-31 and very few remain productive into their age 32 season. In Arsenal’s case I think its been 100% in this century. Not one of Anelka, Bergkamp, Henry, Pires, Llundberg, Eduardo, Fabregas, Adebyor, Bendtner, Walcott, Van Persie, Giroud, Podolski, Welbeck, Sanchez, Ozil and now Auba have been able to maintain their production past age 31. That evidence seems undeniable to me.
Auba was brilliant during both of Emery’s seasons and Arteta’s first season and he won a golden boot and he was the reason we won the FA cup. We were not played great attacking football and we did not have a lot of creativity during those seasons. The idea that Auba’s team mates or his manager are holding him back now when they did not hold him back in Emery and first part of the Arteta era seems hard to accept. The only thing that really changed significantly last season when his production started to decline was Auba hit at 31.
23 goals
22 goals
22 goals
10 goals
4 goals
Those are Auba’s last five seasons.
1.82
1.61
1.28
1.25
1.31
Arsenal xG per game the last five years
also, because I know you’ll say “he got 22 goals in the season we had 1.28 xG per game” I’ll just point out that he basically got all of Arsenal’s good chances that season. He had 26 non-penalty big chances that season. This season, he;s only had 7 and he had 11 last season. I don’t think the problem with Auba is his legs or his mental acuity its that we aren’t getting him chances. He’s being asked to run around a lot and pressure people (in the worst way) and hasn’t been given the kind of chances that he needs to score goals. He’s also not given the freedom to run past defenses and pul teams out of shape with his brilliant movement. You honestly can’t tell me that with a coach that gave him more freedom he wouldn’t score more goals.
Non-penalty big chances:
This season he’s missed 4 and scored 3
In 20/21 he missed 7 and scored 4
In 19/20 he missed 10 and scored 16
In 18/19 he missed 23 and scored 9
In 17/18 he missed 6 and scored 6 (for Arsenal)
This is all so predictable from everyone
“I don’t think the problem with Auba is his legs or his mental acuity its that we aren’t getting him chances. He’s being asked to run around a lot and pressure people (in the worst way) and hasn’t been given the kind of chances that he needs to score goals. He’s also not given the freedom to run past defenses and pul teams out of shape with his brilliant movement. You honestly can’t tell me that with a coach that gave him more freedom he wouldn’t score more goals”.
____________________
Nailed it.
Doc made the second point; I made the first; the conclusion writes itself.
The thing about the “age 32 season” is totally arbitrary. How about 30? Or 31? or 34? Ian Wright had his best ever season for us, as a 32 year old, and sports science wasnt even as good in 96/97/98 as it is today. Benzema is 33, Lewa is 34. Theyre 2 of the best strikers in the world today.
It is true that athletes wear and tear catch up with them, generally/roughly in their 30s. But there is no such thing as an “age 32 season”. Wilshere had an age 26 season. Injury. The majestic Tom Brady has an age 44 season. That’s a heck of a lot of “roughing the passer”. LeBron James is 37 within days. Try taking a charge from him on a fast break.
There is zero evidence of Auba’s legs going or speed being diminished. No aerobic or YoYo-like test result that shows a fall off for him. He would not be starting for Arsenal and tasked with such a heavy workload if his YoYos and other metrics showed a fall off. Matter of fact, his aerobics are superior to those of younger fellas like Smith Rowe in games, and in practice only Tierney and Tomi rival him for speed.
So Bill is off. I think that he starts with conclusions and works backwards.
To be fair to Bill, he’s talking about the law of averages. Brady and Lebron are historic outliers, arugably the best to ever do it in both their respective sports. Benzema and Lewandowski are better comps, but still it’s not really Auba’s situation. Every game in those leagues Madrid and Bayern will be favored by 2-3 goals and they don’t need those guys to put in a physical shift game in, game out as much as we need Auba to do so. Arsenal is never such a favorite in the PL and will not dominate most games to the extent that they do.
Let’s look at some strikers with a similar build and resume to Auba and see what happened as they dipped into their early 30’s.
Thierrry Henry– At age 30, leaves Arsenal and joins the machine that was Barcelona at the peak Pep years, wins everything (similar to Lewa at Bayern right now). At age 33, joins NY Red Bulls and scores 15, 15, 10 and 10 goals in his 4 seasons there until he retires at age 37. That’s why he’s The King. Put this one in the Brady/LeBron bucket for me. Although it’s worth noting even he was spent as a force at an elite club by age 33.
Nicolas Anelka– At age 30, playing for a juggernaut Chelsea team, his PL goals tally plummeted from 19 to 11 to 6 in his 31st year. At age 32, he’s in the Chinese Super League and is basically washed, not much of a force even in that league.
Emannuel Adebayor– At age 30, he had a respectable 11 goals in 21 apps at Tottenham. One year later, he makes only 13 appearances and scores two goals. A year after that, at 32, he in the Turkish Super League (For Istanbul Beshirksar, not even for Galata or Fener…). He has one renaissance season there, age 33, before becoming terminally washed.
Fernando Torres– At age 30, he is a shadow of his former self at Chelsea. At age 31, he returns to Atletico where he scores 3, 11, 8 and 5 goals in this four seasons there as an alternate to Griezmann.
I realize these are just anecdotes and I’m open to hearing counter-examples. But I do think they paint a picture. It’s really difficult to be a 20 goal/season striker in the PL at any point in your career, but the examples of players doing so at or beyond age 32 in the Premier League era are few.
Just for fun, I also googled best players born in 1989 (Auba’s year). Gives you a sense of where he is in his career.
Gareth Bale
Marco Reus
Jordi Alba
Chris Smalling
Toby Alderweireld
Thomas Muller
Dejan Lovren
Cesar Azpilicueta
Finally, here’s a list of all players aged 32 or older registered in the PL right now at “Forward.”
Aubameyang
Dwight Gayle
Theo Walcott
Salomon Rondon
Andriy Yarmolenko
Jay Rodriguez
Ashley Barnes
Troy Deeney
Jamie Vardy
Edinson Cavani
Shane Long
Cristiano Ronaldo
This is nice work, Doc. But I did say this… “It is true that athletes wear and tear catch up with them, generally/roughly in their 30s”.
And I dont mean to suggest that Brady, LeBron etc are anything but outliers. Theyre all time greats, in the conversation about being the greatest ever in their positions/sport. The point is that it’s an individual thing.
Empirical evidence has been presented for why Auba is struggling. Why cant we accept that? Moreover, the other kind of empirical evidence — physical decline — isnt there. It leaves the eye test, which shows that he hasnt lost his burst.
The conclusive evidence won’t come in for another 2 years.
Bill, you’re right about the importance of strikers with productivity, and about goalscoring. And Auba is finishing poorly.
But that xG, man. Better guys than Auba are going to see their numbers fall.
I’m also not going to disagree with you that a change may be the best thing for all parties.
but… xG. Our chance creation sucks.
Hey, some positivity…Ode is working…
I think it was the right decision to sign Auba to a new contract. I even think they got the length right.
I don’t believe he’s being used well, and that his poor form in no small part is down to the paucity of chances he’s getting.
I also expect that he is upset about this both from a footballing perspective and for the financial implications for his future.
Bringing this up in the media while pretending to uphold the sanctity of the dressing room is peak Arteta where he does his version of the humble brag. It also meant that Auba’s transgression was confirmed but the nature of it left to people’s imaginations.
However, on the two occasions Arteta has gone public with his displeasure of Auba, it has worked out for him. Once with the NLD and the other now.
Claude.
I am not criticizing Auba or being negative because what is happening to him because its not his fault. What he is going thru is something that has happened to every player in every professional and amateur sport in history going back to the Greek Olympic Games. The majority of strikers his age see significant drop in their production and that not something he or anyone else can prevent.
Tim. I have not done a detailed study of world football but I have followed Arsenal football and PL football for the last 20 years and most of the top scoring players and all of the best attacking players from Arsenal have seen a significant decrease in their effectiveness in their early 30’s. Arsene knew this with his age 30 guidelines with contracts in the early part of his tenure and he usually moved players before they started to decline. A few days ago you commented in one of your posts that age was catching up with Auba and IMO that was accurate. You can show all of the stats you want but I have no clue why anyone would think that Auba could delay Father Time when no other Arsenal attacking player in this century could? When an age 30+ players starts to see a long term significant decline in production its almost always the end of career downslide and I understand that no one wants to suggest that Bill might be right but what realistic reason would there be to think that Auba is somehow different?
If you look at all of those Arsenal players I mentioned in the comment at 3:47AM ( Iforgot to mention Wilshere and Ramsey) but I think its safe to say that almost none of those star players was in a really bad creative team environment during their age 32 season and yet none of them were able to produce at anywhere close to their career norm levels. Thierry Henry played for one of the the great Barcelona team in his age 32 season in 2009/10 and scored 4 goals. The point is that once most players hit the downslide they don’t produce no matter how good or bad their teams creative environment is. Again I am not sure why anyone would think Auba could be any different then Henry or any of the other Arsenal stars in this century.
It’s never only one thing is it? I think all of these points are valid to a certain extent and we are kind of arguing about who is more correct. It’s a matter of margins and it probably changes day-to-day. Bill and I have valid concerns about Auba’s decline and don’t feel that it’s all down to strucutre and coaching. Tim points out very valid statistical examples of the correlation between Auba’s goals return and the team’s overall xG (the nerd in me wants to hypothesize reverse causation but I won’t go there) and that his chance conversion has been largely stable. I don’t think either view is entirely right or entirerly wrong and at the end of the day it is all conjecture, whether evidence-based or not. I don’t even think Auba knows “the answers” to why he’s looked out of sorts. It’s never just one thing. All we can do is hope there are some reverisible things, like mental/physical fatigue and the bounce of the ball, that will start to go his way soon.
Official. Stripped of the captaincy; dropped for the game against West Ham. It’s early, but I cant see Auba playing another game for us.
As the details of this matter come out, it’s hard to see where the severity of the punishment fits the crime (as Tim pointed out in his first comment in the matter)\
Doc, “the truth lies somewhere in between competing points of view” is a nice and noble sentiment, but it’s rarely actually the case. Truth, in fact, has a bias. As someone who used to cover sport, I can say that Bill makes stuff up, and moves goalposts more than a training pitch attendant. This isnt personal, and he seems like a really good bloke, but he just does. When someone shows us Auba’s aerobic test results, let’s talk about “father time”, “age 32 season” or irreversible decline. There’s clearly other stuff going on in his life, and in the camp. He will probably never again hit the heights that saw him reach Arsenal landmarks faster than any other striker, but reports of his death are premature.
ALL Arsenal fans are concerned about his form. Not just his… all of the attackers. All of us, without exception. Looks like it won’t matter now anyway.
WOW. I didn’t expect that.
I’m not here to fight Bill’s battles (or any battles) but you might want to consider softening or apologizing for that. I don’t think anyone here is free of bias.
We’re not free of bias. I’m not. In talking about bias, I was talking about the truth, not an individual. You should be careful about equidistance between competing views. Especially in the age of Trump. Sometimes, something is true. Sometimes something is not. I prefer empirical.
That said, what is it you want me to soften or apologise for? Im totally fine with doing that.
My understanding is that at least up through early last season, Auba was still one of the fastest players in the PL. He hasn’t had a major injury, so that’s unlikely to be completely gone this quickly. And I’m not sure why we’d necessarily only look at Arsenal strikers to decide when the age cut-off is. There’s certainly a number of strikers older than Auba putting up good numbers, including probably the best striker in the world(Lewandoski). So there’s nothing inherently saying he can’t be at 20 goal form.
That said, he’s clearly not there. I suspect it’s a number of things…poor service, bad form, outside distractions(leading to loss of captainship). All of those seem more likely to me than physical decline.
auba losing the captaincy is a good thing. i’ve said a thousand times that a striker shouldn’t be the captain for several reasons. first, scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in football so the last thing your goal scorers need is to be distracted by anything other than scoring, particularly because they don’t care about anyhting else but scoring. second, and this is some shit i made up, strikers are weird; all of them! they need to have the freedom to be as weird as necessary to be effective goal scorers.
good captains aren’t weird. they’re very rational and predictable and are extensions of their manager on the pitch. they have to be in a position to best control the game and up top is not the best position. strikers, on the other hand need the freedom to express themselves. wright needed to be goofy, anelka needed to sulk, henry needed to be moody, adebayor needed to do goofy dances, rvp needed to talk sh*t, giroud needed to jump on people like he was small, alexis needed to squat deep in thought, and auba needed to wear marvel masks, do flips, and be late to meetings. strikers can only be captains if they’re not required to lead the team as they’ve got senior guys sitting deeper to do that. let auba focus on his goal scoring.
giroud bounced back after getting caught with that instagram model. auba can bounce back as well. arteta would do well to take a page from the wenger playbook and give auba some time off. wenger often did that for henry, giving him a day off just to relax. if i were arteta, i’d tell auba to take the family to mallaorca or somewhere for the rest of the week and don’t think about football. i’d have him come back on monday morning, rested and reset, focused not on being arsenal captain but doing what he does best…putting the ball in the net. there’s nothing cool about being a captain but there is about being a goal scorer.
the team will benefit as well. like i’ve always said, auba is a great player but a crap center forward. lacazette is miles better and the team will play better with laca leading the line, just like they always have. look no further than the game on saturday and how many actions lacazette did in the attacking phase of the game than aubameyang. arsenal will play better and i would not be surprised to see them beat west ham, especially with ramsdale in goal. we’ll see.
as usual, I agree with you Joshua. very even handed and intelligent approach. that said, I’d be surprised if Arteta does any of this. the club statement this morning, the way the player has been treated through leaks and the manager going public, has set up a situation where either the player has to come crawling back with his tail between his legs or get drummed out of the club. my guess is it will be the latter.
correction, auba can bounce back like giroud did…if he’s properly managed. wenger gave giroud the chance to get his house in order. will arteta have that judgement or will he talk about his non-negotiables?