Tancredi Palmieri reported on the 14th, via a tweet, that Arsenal have bid 40m Euros on Manuel Locatelli. Forget for a moment that his tweet was published two days after Gazetta reported that not only had Arsenal bid 40m but that the player rejected Arsenal and that Juventus and Sassuolo were working out the details. The point is that there are a ton of signs that Arsenal wanted to buy Manuel Locatelli, and with a similar amount of heat around the rumors that Arsenal are going to sign Ben White it seems like Arteta’s team are in search of a specific type of player: one who progresses the ball very well.
For those who don’t watch Serie A, Locatelli is a central midfielder for Sassuolo. They finished 8th in Serie A last season with Locatelli playing a much more modern deep central mid role. Locatelli was the first man that started the attack and also the first line of defense in midfield.
I won’t spend a ton of time breaking down his stats because he’s not coming to Arsenal (I believe) but just suffice it to say that I haven’t been this impressed with a MFer’s stats since Rodri. And when you see Locatelli’s scouting report or compare him to Rodri and Granit Xhaka, you can see why: he’s what I consider the perfect “all-rounder” in midfield. He plays deep, progresses the ball extremely well (both passing and carries), can create, and defends well. He’s what Wenger wanted Xhaka to be. Or what we are still sort of wanting from Thomas Partey. What we had with Arteta and to some extent what we had with Fabregas (Fabregas was unique). He’s a player who can play deep all by himself and dictate the team’s play.
Locatelli has never quite had the eye for a goal that Fabregas had. By the time Fabregas was 20 years old, he’d already had his first 10+ assist season under his belt. And Fabregas was a throughball beast: in the 2010/11 Arsenal season, Fabregas had 25 throughball key passes (with 6 assists), Manuel Locatelli has 4 throughball assists on 8 throughball key passes, in his career (source: whoscored). I say that so that you’re clear that I’m not saying Locatelli will be a Fabregas. I also say that because while Locatelli is pretty good at creating chances for his teammates (40-ish key passes last season depending on the source, lol) and 2.7 shot creating actions per90 last season, he’s still a far cry from what Arsenal truly need which is a creative player. I’ll explain.
I cross-referenced Arsenal’s attacking passing (getting the ball into the final third and penalty area) with Arsenal’s shot taking and you won’t be surprised to learn that 1) we get the ball forward really well and 2) we just don’t create very well. Here’s the first chart, showing forward passing on the Y axis and shots taken on the X axis:
Arsenal are 5th in the League in passes in the final third and passes in the penalty area but 11th in shots taken. We are an unusual outlier in that regard. The correlation between passes in that danger area and shots taken would normally have us somewhere around 7th place, and yet we were in 11th last season.
After Arteta introduced a #10 (Martin Ødegaard) Arsenal’s shots per game increased a whopping 2.2 but that only brought Arsenal to 12.6 shots per game which, if I extrapolate that out and assume we’d have been the same over the entire season, is directly in line with 7th place. Not great, but at least that’s what I would expect from that amount of forward playing football.
Key passes (passes that lead to the shot) show a similar trend, but worse:
Again, Arsenal are 5th in the League in getting the ball forward but here in chance creation Arsenal are worse: 12th, worse than West Ham. And once again, when we look at the half-season split Arsenal’s key passes numbers do increase, but only 1 per game from 8 to 9. Despite the slight bump in key passes after introducing both Smith Rowe and Ødegaard, nine key passes per game is WAY off the expected number of key passes for this much forward play. You are looking at a deficit here of not just one key passes a game (which is the increase that Locatelli brings over Xhaka) but 100-125 key passes in a season.
What Ben White and Locatelli would bring to Arsenal is moving Arsenal slightly up the chart (this is considering that they are replacing Xhaka and Holding – who weren’t terrible at progressive passing and were quite good, actually) in terms of progressive passing and slightly to the right in terms of key passing/shooting. What this proves to me, beyond a doubt, is that Arsenal need a top quality creative player. We need Ben White, Locatelli and then also someone to add (net add! HA!) 75 key passes or 8 expected assists (like Raphinha from Leeds).
Now, it’s possible that Saka and Smith Rowe are on the verge of producing that increase. In which case, perhaps I’m wrong. We also have Martinelli coming up through the ranks and probably haven’t seen anywhere near the best from Pepe. But I can’t help but look at the data, look at the other teams in the League who have this superstar creator (Mount, Bruno, Grealish, de Bruyne, Trent Alexander-Arnold), and think that we need one too.
Of course, as we know, it’s a process. We have been rebuilding now for the last three years and judging by the mistakes last year will probably be rebuilding for a few more years. Adding Ben White and a player like Locatelli is certainly a step in the right direction and since we aren’t going to jump back into the title race this year it’s ok to hold off and wait for the perfect creative player. But at some point, we are going to need one.
If you look at some of our history in that position, it mirrors our devolution. We went from Bergkamp to Fabregas to Cazorla to Ozil to…Xhaka?
Well, to be fair to Xhaka, he’s mostly been played in a more defensive role for Arsenal. Certainly not the same position that Bergkamp or Ozil played. And not really Fabregas either. So not really fair to compare his numbers to any of them.
He does typically play further forward for Switzerland.
Having (sort of) survived the post-Emirates ‘sustainability’ era, I don’t think I can oppose this club signing a player, any player. However, this creativity deficit is clearly more down to management than personnel.
Even an Aouar or Maddison (for example) will not be much use unless allowed to actually play. The players were only let out of Arteta’s tactical straitjacket twice last season – against West Brom and Chelsea – when his job was on the line (similar to Arsene turning on his defensive nous when 4th place was on the line).
Before and after that was ideology over management, and I’m glad the results fully reflected how terrible it was to watch. There is a happy medium between defense and attack, structure and initiative – Arsene found it once, other managers have found it since. Arteta seems to be reading half a page of a management textbook each week, I’m not sure we can wait for him to get to the part about balance.
Superb analysis. This is why 7am is the best blog for many gooners.
Besides what you’ve shown us here, Tim, the pattern I see in our targets is athletes. Ben White looks a superb athlete. He is fit as a fiddle, and looks like he can run hard for 2 hours on a football field if you let him. Lokonga and Tavares fit the mould.
Havent seen enough of Locatelli to say if he’s particularly athletic (he was mostly used as a sub in the Italy games I watched), but since you reference Cesc, he wasnt a tearaway athlete either. In terms of head and vision, he was one of the best Arsenal players I’ve ever seen. So maybe outright athleticism not necessarily a requirement from Locatelli if we get him.
He’s not coming to Arsenal anyway. He’s 23, just won the Euro, and is rubbing shoulders with Veratti, Insigne and Chiellini. He’d be mad to come to the Emirates from Sassuolo, at a breakthrough point of his career. But intriguing breakdown of Arsenal’s thinking behind his acquisition.
And on White… from YT vids I predict (if we get him) that he’ll end up playing a lot of RB, but probably not principally. He looks, on YT evidence, a very good ball-carrier. And he’s 5-feet-11-and-a-half…
Oh and (and more YouTube detectiving) Loca can hit an aerial pass on a dime from 50 yards… WITH EITHER FOOT. Yep, he’s two-footed. Granit, for all his qualities, was not.
Loca can find a through ball to the forwards through a forest. He can carry a bit. And he’s a biggish lad (6’1″) with some meat on him, and should be able to look after himself physically. He’d be perfect. Edu and Mikel would have to do one hell of a sales job. And pay him huge. Make it happen, o footballing gods…
I’d happily have kept Saliba, and spent the Ben White money and then some on Locatelli. Maybe that would have made it possible? Though high-level Italian players coming to the PL are rare.
But obviously that particular deal isn’t happening now. And as stated any deal for him looks unlikely. That said, I’d never have predicted the Ozil deal either.
Ben White purchase looks made specifically to push Saliba out of sight to Timbuktu. Using the money to buy Locateli would be wise, but will not happen for aforesaid reason.
One weird thing about Ben White: he’s tall enough but he’s not good in the air.
As for Locatelli, I honestly can’t see him going from 8th place in Serie A to 8th place in the PL. Even if the Arsenal knock is a different knock, it ain’t that different.
Read where Juventus is looking for 2yr loan with option to buy Locatelli. Arsenal have offered up the full amount (£38M) Sassuolo are asking. Apparently Locatelli is pleased with Arsenal’s nuanced approach– in understanding he wants to go to Juventus– but prepped if it doesn’t occur.
Had this same notion about Ben White playing at RB. The ability to flex into a variety of strategic formations in both attack and defense– seems an ideal of Arteta’s.
If I had to swap my John, Paul, George and Ringo shirt for another one like it, it would be this:
https://moteefe.com/limited-edition6282?color=black&product=men-s-t-shirt
Just sayin…
Stellar stuff Tim, thank you.
I refuse to search locatelli highlight vids, it will just make my heart hurt. Oh for a great midfielder to knit everything together.
This is how football articles should be written with insight and analysis and the occasional pinch of emotion.
Quite enlightening. Who if not locateli could we go for? Which reasonable targets could arsenal go for to feel that super creative player need?
Also key decisions Arteta has to make is how he sets his team up depending on availability of attackers. Lacazette and auba play better with different player combinations.
Tim
Another awesome post. Thanks for your time and everything you do.No time to comment now but I will get around to it at some point
Claude I just saw your comment at the end of the comment section yesterday. I did not get a chance to answer, I will try to answer when I get a chance.
Thanks, Bill. Decent of you.
Tim, as others have said this is superb stuff – thank you!
I know you make a reference to ESR potentially improving but I’m interested to know your thoughts/analysis on whether he was such a revelation after Christmas because we simply didn’t have a creator before; or whether he actually has the potential to be such a ‘superstar creator’?
5th in passes into the final third and penalty area sounds not that bad. Much better than I’d have thought. Could that be explained by teams figuring out we are toothless and sitting deep and hoping to spring a counter on us?
ESR, Nelson, Willock, or even AMN. I’d try them all as a chance creator or to open up space in the middle. I’m not going by stats here but I think we don’t use the middle part of the field to create. I suppose Tavares and Tierney will be the Kolasinac to Arteta’s Emery. If Partey can improve that will be a big plus. But please integrate Willock. Him and ESR were my two top academy picks some 2-3 years ago. Saka came out of nowhere. (Thanks to Freddie)
A bit disappointed we’re not seeing Miguel Azeez get a chance in pre-season. Wasn’t he supposed to be the next big thing?
What should Arsenal’s target be this season? No European football. Do we ‘sacrifice’ the cups to focus on the league? Top 4? Top 6?
I think that’s a distinct possibility: 5th in final third passes, 8th in passes into the penalty area. I just think Arteta was a super conservative coach last season. I’m not sure what he will do this season, but I hope it’s not more of that.
Does the figure of 5th best at passes into the box include the myriad of crosses from the wings into the centre with no one there to do anything with them?
If yes, then why is everyone thinking that this is a cause for celebration?
Like so many statistics, it is misleading and open to manipulation.
Surely the better figure to look at is the passes in the box to one of our players
Did I not see somewhere that we had the lowest figure for shots on target and one of the lowest ones for shots of any nature?
Where do we come in the list of teams providing entertainment value?
Can anyone tell me the difference in the number of goals actually scores in the EPL last season as opposed to the season before?
If Man$ity are down by about 20, what about other teams?
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/57873034
“Play that funky music White boy…”Almost a done deal.
Solid article as usual, and your analysis has depth, you do your homework.
So, if not Loca, who is in the cue? Neves, hard pass…
ESR can’t play them all….
Shard, read somewhere the Azeez is injured.
Still have a ton of dead weight on the roster too.
Look who‘s been busy! Great post Tim. You have knitted many of my random thoughts into a coherent whole. Thanks.
Great work, Tim. You’ve succinctly demonstrated exactly what we need to address and why we were such a poor spectacle last season and ended up in mid-table. I too cannot see us persuading Locatelli to join us over Juve and we do need to bring in a similar type of player to play alongside Partey as neither AMN nor Willock are convincing in that role and Elneny though a willing runner doesn’t have enough vision or guile. I just don’t know who that is likely to be.
On the positive side, ESR has shown against Hibs and at Rangers that he can knit that attack together nicely and we may not need to bring in an Ødegaard replacement quite so urgently. Despite the feverish noise online I can’t see us getting Maddison either but that may matter less though it would be nice to have another player of that type.
As a whole we were a much slicker operation in those two games (except defending set pieces) – certainly more pleasing on the eye than in most games last season and moving the ball through midfield faster and with more intent. It’s early days but things may be moving in the right direction.
Tim
I agree that we need more creativity. However, for most of the post invincibles Wenger era we have had elite world class creativity and yet if you look back at the number of actual goals we scored we have never been a high scoring team. Adding a super creator is a good thing and might make us a bit more eye pleasing to watch but we are not going to score a lot of goals unless we have players who can turn the passes into actual goals scored.
“we have never been a high scoring team”
What do you mean by this? You mean that we “never” lead the league in scoring since 2004? Because we were “usually” in the top 2 and “always” in the top four in goals scored until 2016/17 (5th) which we resumed until Wenger’s demise. Plus we “almost always” had two of the great goal-scorers and creators in the league for every season under Wenger’s reign.
The problem with Wenger’s Arsenal wasn’t that we didn’t score enough it’s that he didn’t spend when necessary to give the team a chance to win and that he often prioritized attack over defense.
I find this assertion quite odd, bud.
Claude your question from the comment section in the previous post
“So what squad building strategy should the club pursue?
Who should they let go?
Who should they keep?
Who should they bring in?”
I think we need to pursue a player or 2 who will be our goal scorers. We need to find another Alexis Sanchez or another Auba. I realize players like that are expensive and no one wants to sell a player who scores but to me the evidence of the need for players like that is overwhelming.
1) During the Fabregas and then Ozil/Cazorla era we had truly elite creativity and yet we were outscored every season but Fergies teams and Mourinho’s Chelsea teams whose overall squad creativity couldn’t compare with ours. They just had better goal scorers.
2) Some would argue that adding more creative players would improve the ability of our current players to score. However the evidence from the Ozil/Cazorla era suggests the positive effect is not as important as we want to believe. During those years we brought in several players such as Chamakh, Podolski, Gervinho Welbeck Giroud, Sanogo Lacazette and we had several talented younger players and none of them improved their scoring efficiency despite having the opportunity to play on a team with elite creativity and passing ability. Several players efficiency in front of goal decrease but I can’t think of a single player who came into the team during the Ozil era who improved their scoring efficiency
3) The highest scoring Arsenal team in the 2010-2020 decade was the year between Fabregas and Cazorla when our overall squad creativity was at it lowest point in the Wenger era. The reason we scored a lot that year is because of Van Persie scoring. RVP’s best seasons happened when our squad creativity was at its lowest during the Wenger era/
4) Auba came into the team as an elite scorer and despite playing in the Emery Arteta era he maintained his scoring efficiency for the first 2 1/2 season despite the fact that our creativity was arguably the worst in the last 30 years.
5) Teams who lose their top scorers inevitably see their goal totals drop significantly even when they maintain their creativity. The Zidane/Ronaldo teams scored 100+ goals every season but when they lost Ronaldo their totals dropped precipitously and they have been averaging around 70 goals/season since Ronaldo left. Same with Pep this season. ManCity goal totals dropped more then 20% mainly because they lost Aguero.
6) Arsenal have had dozens of highly rated prospects with very high technical skills such as Bendtner, Aliadiare, Walcott, JET, Afobe, Akpom Ox, Iwobe who had the opportunity to play on a team with elite creativity but not a single one developed into consistent goal scorers
7) Our best season in terms of creativity and passing stats during the Ozil era was 15/16 and yet I think that was the second lowest goal scoring total during the entire Wenger era
I am not trying to suggest that creativity and passing is not important. Obviously the ideal situation is having both elite creativity and elite goal scoring options and its a good idea but the object of the game is score as many goals as possible. to add more creativity. However, it seems utterly indisputable that the single biggest factor which influences the total number of goals a team is able to score is having the goal scoring firepower upfront and right now we don’t have nearly enough. . IMO its going to be difficult to build a top 4 team unless we buy a couple players like Auba and/or Sanchez
first, let me say that i agree in whole with your point about spending £50 million on a center back that’s weak in the air. it’s foolish. i don’t care how good he is at “advancing the ball” or whatever. as a defender, his first priority is to defend. kolo tour and thomas vermaelen could advance the ball but they were lacking in other areas. like you’ve already stated, white’s numbers are not better than rob holding’s. we also know rob holding can defend, especially high balls. all of this, not to mention the fuckery of the saliba situation. this signing has mustafi-level error written all over it.
actually, arsenal may play with a back 3. we’ll see.
my bad, the actual thread. like everyone else, i really appreciate your research and the graphs. i’d like to, not so much make an arguement, but raise another point. it’s nice to have players that can play the ball into the final third but the player receiving those balls has to be able to keep the ball in the final third. this is a difficult skill and it is not insignificant. since giroud’s left, there have been two players capable of winning and keeping the ball effectively in the final third. that’s alexandre lacazette and mesut ozil. neither were as good as giroud but both were clearly better than anyone else arsenal have had since the departure of the big frenchman. the problem is that mesut is gone and lacazette is still splitting center forward time with aubameyang, who proves ineffective with his back to goal.
arsenal’s best attack is auba on the left, laca, smith rowe centrally, and pepe on the right. laca will win and keep the penetrative forward balls. smith rowe’s movement and quick distribution will unsettle defenses. all of them of capable of creating chances and scoring for themselves and their team mates. however, laca has got to lead the line and auba has got to understand that the team is best served with him being the 11. instead of trying to keep the ball, auba can simply focus on doing what he’s good at: finishing. the problem is i don’t think arteta believes that.
Where does Saka fit in, or have I missed something?
Josh
If we play with a 4231 we only have room in the start 4 attacking players and none of those 4 in your comment above at 8:36AM is named Saka. Your assumption that Auba is going to have a bounce back year and go back to his best is pretty shaky at best and even if true at age 32 he does not have more then 1 or at most 2 good years left and Laca will be age 30 so the beginning of his decline can’t be that far away either.
pepe is a better scorer than saka and so is aubameyang; i didn’t make a mistake. aren’t you the one who’s always saying “we need fire power” and aren’t you the one who’s always talking down what the academy products have never accomplished?
i do believe that if aubameyang is allowed to focus on goal scoring, he’ll prove prolific again. last year, he was asked to play with his back to goal while also learning his new role as captain. it’s a bit much. a smart manager would lighten that load a little.
and who care how many years you guess aubameyang and lacazette have left? they’re still the best options arsenal have available. i’m just worried about this year.
So Saka doesn’t get a game? Really? You might be on your own on that one!
I think if Bukayo Saka was ever deemed surplus to requirements, the queue of potential suitors would stretch half way round the stadium. Last season, his footballing relationship with ESR virtually pulled the team out of the toilet.
sure, saka get’s a game. i just think that, right now, pepe is better than 20-year old saka.
Fair enough. If it was down to me, I’d play both of them and have a single out and out centre forward. Whether that is Laca, Auba, or someone completely different, then “yer pays yer money and yer takes yer choice”.
You are correct, ESR isn’t a finisher in the Auba mould, but on current form, his “finishing” looks a lot more clinical.
Claude
To answer a couple more of your question. I think the ceiling for Maitland-Niles, Nelson, Nketiah, probably Willock Elneny are limited. However, we need back end of the squad players to fill in minutes and their value if sold is very limited. Saka, ESR Martinelli Pepe may have a bit higher ceiling. I think Pepe might have the highest ceiling but unless he surprises and can carry develop into a high teens scorer, I don’t see that we can get enough production from those players to build a top 4 team. They can be nice complementary pieces but we need a couple of star players to really take the next step as a team. We tried to find that star power and production when we spent big money on Laca, Auba and Pepe. Auba worked out but the other 2 really haven’t. IMO. The key to our long term success is we need to do a better job of identifying and acquiring those top players who can give us the production we need.
If we can only buy 1 high value player are we best served by spending the money a super creator for the midfield or a scorer. Do we buy someone like Ozil or someone like Alexis Sanchez/Auba. To me it depends on your objective. If we want the team to be more technical and play a more eye pleasing style you buy Ozil. If you want the team to score more goals and win more games I think you buy the scorer.
I won’t say Lacazette hasn’t worked out well.
His strength is shooting and holding up the ball -a stronger version of Joe Willock who can hold the ball better than Auba. A player who excels in a 2-striker partnership.
He scores some goals and like Wiltord & Kanu, he is a good back-up striker.
Pepe was a victim of Arteta’s analysis-paralysis. The team suffered and the psychological boost of raising one’s game to meet up with expectations for players like Reiss Nelson & Pepe plateaued once Willain was signed.
If we do buy a super creator thats basically the end for ESR as a regular starter unless we somehow re-engineer him as one of 2 holding/defensive minded midfielders. I am skeptical that ESR is the long term answer to our creativity issues but if you do believe he has the long term potential to play as the #10 then he needs someone who can turn his passes into goals scored.
If we had an attacking line of Martinelli-ESR&Pepe or Saka in midfield just behind the striker, we would have better combinations and shared creative responsibility.
That’s why the signing of a player who’s well rounded like Locatelli makes sense.
Bill/Josh,
Correct me if I’m wrong, but in the two pre season matches so far, ESR got an opportunity to score and managed to put the ball in the net, with seemingly very little difficulty. Aubameyang, on the other hand, had a fair number of absolute sitters and missed every single one.
mark, you are correct but what’s your point? are you saying you believe smith rowe is a better finisher than aubameyang?
Excellent article and your conclusion makes a lot of sense.
Excellent article Tim. Honestly, you should be a performance consultant because your analysis is way too good for blogs only.
I actually did some sleuthing(in reference to the comment about Lacazette & Willock above). If you compare Jude Bellingham and Joe Willock’s stats from last season, you find an attacking midfielder lacking in passing averages & through balls, but excellent in finishing as a supporting attacker.
Could we sell Lacazette and use some of the younger players to replicate what he brings to the team?
I feel this is the season to sell Lacazette.
I acknowledge the need for creators or for Arteta to allow the creatives play in the final third.
Martinelli is a winger, runner and finisher.
ESR is a technical player in the mould of Nasri. Saka is a winger. Pepe is a winger.
Nketiah and Flo’Balogun could do well as understudies to Auba. We have 4 options for wing play and we are light in the middle.
We need a Rosicky-like player and a Cazorla or Fabregas-type in addition to our current selection of midfielders. That’s 2 attacking or central midfielders.
If we have fluid attacks with possession and pace we could bring the old Aubameyang of Dortmund back this season.
That would mean relying less on holding up the ball centrally but dribbling and holding possession to make a telling final pass.
do you actually believe that there is another player, younger or otherwise, that can do what lacazette does? you think joe willock can play with his back to goal? i’ve never seen that. the game is so much different when you have to play with your back to goal and i don’t think there’s another player who can do that in this squad better than lacazette.
No!
Actually, I was suggesting we prioritize other attacking plays instead of hold-up play.
Josh
I agree. Our best scorers are Auba, Laca and Pepe. Trouble is none of them were very good last season which is why we struggled to score. IMO. Laca has averaged 13 a season in his 4 years, Pepe has been with us 2 seasons and averaged 7.5 goals/season and Auba was poor last season. Between the 3 last season we got only 33 total league goals. The other problem is we had no help from anywhere else on the pitch. We only got 5 total goals all season from the midfield players and only 5 from the defensive players. When you do the math it just does not work.
the first half of the season, it could have been that the club directed arteta not to play mesut but it clearly affected the arsenal attack. they had no one suited to play that role until arteta had no choice but to play smith rowe behind the center forward. suddenly, the attack looked more potent, simply because arsenal had competence there. smith rowe didn’t score a bunch of goals or assists but his presence and mobility helped collapse defenses, which led to more scoring chances.
likewise, the criticism leveled against lacazette seems unfair. consider that this man has had to share center forward time for his entire arsenal career, first with giroud and then with auba. if lacazette starts 33 games at center forward, i predict he’ll break 20 goals. if aubameyang starts 33 games at striker with laca and emile in the middle, i predict he’ll get mid-twenties in goals. if pepe get’s 33 starts with laca and emile in the middle, he’ll get about 20 goals. this doesn’t include what saka, martinelli, smith rowe, balogun, and the defenders will get.
lastly, i think bukayo is a fabulous player. however, he’s still very young and i just think pepe is slightly better and a more clinical finisher.
I can’t see any value in playing Auba and Laca at the same time. Apparently, they’re big mates off the pitch, but on it they behave like complete strangers. No chemistry, whatsoever. On the rare occasions I watch Spurs, the thing that always impresses me is the interplay between Son and Kane.
Compare and contrast.
What I look for when I’m watching the Gunners are “partnerships”. Little relationships in certain areas of the pitch, where two players instinctively know what the other one is doing. Think Bergkamp and Ljundberg. Brady and Rix. Lately, Saka and ESR.
So important.
It isn’t a question of loading the team with the best goalscorers. It’s all about who can play with whom.
i don’t have the stats but i’m willing to bet my hat that the majority of the time that lacazette and aubameyang played together, it wasn’t from the start. that means arsenal didn’t plan for them to play together and needed to make a change, probably chasing the game. that’s a clear deviation from plan a, which is what was worked on during training.
arsenal need to simply commit to laca as their #9 and build from there; strategy, training, tactics, walk-thru, etc. if arsenal were to do that, i think you’d see not only chemistry, but the best from both players.
Laca had 22 starts for Arsenal and Arteta started him and Auba together 13 times.
When they played together the most common formation was a 343 with Auba on the left. There were two interesting and slightly unusual formations: one was a 442 against Newcastle (3-0 win) and a 4231 with Lacazette in the #10 role and Auba in the pure forward role. We lost that match 1-0 to Burnley, though that was more down to missed big chances than anything else as we managed to create 18 shots in that match with an xG of 1.5
well…that debunks my “majority starts” theory as 13 is clearly more than 9. however, the stupid formations, particularly with laca as a #10 is a proper caveat.
interestingly, laca had 22 starts and yesterday, i said we’d see him at his best with 33 starts (50% more) at center forward. it’s safe to say that he’d likely score 50% more goals. that’s 22.5 goals, which is quite good for a center forward, but folks want to sell this man while he’s in his prime. nuts!
likewise, take some of the work from auba. let him focus on what he’s good at; scoring goals. he shouldn’t have to worry about trying to play with his back to goal or even trying to captain the team. i’d prefer he be cristiano-level obsessed with scoring and nothing else. the hardest thing to do in this game is scoring goals. why put more of a tactical load on your goal scorers?
You inspired me to look closer at his data and I think you’re right. If he starts more often and gets more shots he could easily be our 20+ goal a season man. Check today’s post: I have him at 24 goals for 100 shots. Now, he’s not normally a bulk shooter so, I’d see him getting 80 shots in a season which is about 20 goals.
So, hang on a minute. Aubameyang is 32 years old, is currently on a 3 year long contract worth a basic 250k a week going up to 350k. Let’s assume Laca is the nailed on number 9. Let’s also assume that Arteta often chooses not to start with both of them, as you correctly point out. That makes Auba an incredibly expensive super-sub, when you want to make a change and chase the game.
I can’t get away from the fact that we invested heavily in two players, who are by no means an even passable fit for each other. Add into the mix the fact that hey are both over 30 and you have to wonder whether that makes sense.
I’m glad it’s not my money, Arsenal are spending.
How many shots did they get, Bill, and how does that compare to their previous seasons when they were scoring more goals? (Hint: it’s much lower. If you don’t get shots, you don’t score goals.)
the 3 years before we bought Mesut Ozil we averaged 73.33 league goals/season. In the 3 years after we bought Ozil we averaged 68 goals/season.
In the last 3 years Ozil played for Madrid they average 108.6 league goals/season. In the 3 years after they sold him Madrid averaged 110.7 goals per season.
The affect wasn’t dramatic but both Arsenal and Madrid scored more without Ozil then they did with him. I am not sure what to conclude but in both cases having the super creator worlds best #10 certainly did not improve the ability of either team to score more goals. In the case of Madrid I think they had so much firepower that it did not matter who else they had in the lineup. In Arsenal’s case we did not have enough firepower to turn all of those passes into goals scored. I think we clearly have the same problem now. The other problem for Arsenal was Arsene’s obscession with having as much technical skill and creativity on the pitch as possible. He often played creative players who did not score much as forwards in order to find a way to get them in the line up and the math is pretty straight forward because it left no room on the pitch for players who were better at scoring. In Ozil’s first season we would would often start Arteta, Ozil, Cazorla, Wilshere and Ramsey which left no room on the pitch for someone who could score goals.
In theory, the job of creative players is to make guys who score goals more efficient. Ozil was probably the highest profile and most eye catching creative midfielder of the previous decade. Some might conclude the eye catching factor may have caused us over rate just how effective he really was at improving the players around him.
Contrast what happened with Ozil compared with before and after Ronaldo left Madrid. In Ronaldo’s last 3 seasons Madrid averaged 103.33 goals and they won the CL every season. In the 3 season since Ronaldo left Madrid has averaged 66.67 goals/season. I think the conclusion is very simple. Having players who are really good at scoring is easily the single most critical factor of your teams ability to score.
Great stuff, as always, Tim. I agree there’s no doubt attacking and shot creation are the Achilles heel of the team under Arteta. I wonder if there’s some nuance here about where our final third entry passes are coming from. JJGSOL makes an interesting point about our obsession with crosses at times throughout the season. Between those and the long balls we frequently tried to play over the top, I think there’s not just a quantity issue, but a quality one. Sure, Bellerin crossed a lot – but they rarely connected with anyone, it seemed. (This isn’t Hector hate, btw, just one example that stands out in my memory.)
And many of us have bemoaned our lack of presence in Area 14 just outside the box. We just never seem to have possession there. We rarely worked the ball through the middle. Either Arteta didn’t like doing that or didn’t trust our guys to do it. It’s only logical to assume that entry passes from closer and more centrally would be more likely to result in shots and chances – right? So if we play from wide and deep we are not going to have a lot of success in the important stats.
All just my own suppositions which I don’t have the pass maps to support!!!
Feel free to tell me I’m completely wrong.
this is also a question that i had. i’m not sure if the stat tim is using for passes into the final third means completed passes or merely pass attempts. i assumed it was completed passes.
prophetically, it’s very difficult to play through zone 14. most coaches simply pack their entire midfield into that zone. this is why emery and others preferred to use 16 and 18. you need players with great guile and skill to operate effectively in that zone. players like cazorla, nasri, and hleb could do a job. arsenal don’t currently have anyone of that ilk suited to play there.