After going back through my notes (plus some videos!) on nearly every match Arsenal played in the 2020/21 season a few things stood out.
Ceballos
I have never been a fan of Ceballos. It’s not personal. I don’t have any reason to dislike him, I just found him a largely underwhelming (loan) signing. Loans in to the club have to be done under extraordinary circumstances in my mind and there is virtually no upside to a club Arsenal’s size loaning a player in from a transfer point of view: if the player does well, we just increased his value for the parent company; if the player does poorly, we wasted time and money. The only reason to loan players in is in a desperate bid to “make top 4”. And the theory goes that once you get that top four money you can buy him or his replacement.
The problem with loan players is that they are a “get rich quick” scheme. The smart money is investing in youth players, investing in building the club slowly, and getting into a position where being top four is a function of what the whole organization is geared toward rather than just getting one guy in and jumping the queue. It needs to be systemic.
There were a few flashes of brilliance in Ceballos’ first season but not anywhere near enough for me to warrant a second loan. But Arsenal couldn’t seem to afford another midfielder after splurging on Thomas and with precious few options for midfield bodies, Arsenal went back to the Ceballos well.
I went into the season with a pretty negative view of Ceballos so it’s a surprise how often I praised him in my season notes. Almost exclusively in the first half of the season, Ceballos was huge in Arsenal’s buildup and delivery of the final ball. And his throughballs in that first half the season were quite good.
But as soon as Mikel Arteta discovered Emile Smith Rowe (between the couch cushions) Dani Ceballos was pushed further back on the pitch, often dropped, and occasionally used for sub duty. And he was awful in that role.
When I look at individual player’s stats, I always have to remind myself that football is a game of context. What a guy does on the pitch (even for something as seemingly individualistic as taking a penalty) is almost never down to his skill alone. Sure, he has to have the talent to see a play developing but his teammates and manager put him in that position to make that splitting pass. I’m not saying anything you don’t already know but the point here is that Ceballos’ first half and second half were exactly indicative of the player’s level: on a team bereft of attacking talent and looking at a bottom of the table finish, Ceballos is pretty good.
Xhaka
I was surprised at how error-prone Xhaka was in the first half. I remember the red card for the throat choke but even prior to that he was making errors all over the place. Another player who benefitted greatly from the introduction of Smith Rowe and Ødegaard.
And that’s another thing. Last season Arteta realized Xhaka’s biggest problem was how he responds to pressure. So he took the ball away from Xhaka, told him to stop trying to make tackles, and play in formation. This season, Arteta made the team tight around him, and made it easier for Xhaka to make tackles (career high tackles v. dribbles %), and because we bought a 2nd midfielder, one who was confident with the ball and could look up to find a player forward, Xhaka was relieved of the pressure of being the main MFer on the ball. Here are some data points;
From 2017-2020, Xhaka averaged 13 passes per90 while under pressure. In 2020/21 that number dropped to 8.2.
From 2017-2020 Xhaka’s tackles v. dribbles % averaged 31% win rate. In 2020/21 Xhaka won 52% of his tackles v. dribbles.
And last season Arteta limited Xhaka’s on-ball work, cutting his passes by 12 per90, progressive distance by 130 yds per90, touches by 20 per90, and carries by 13 per90. All those numbers are back up to nearly Xhaka’s pre-Arteta (Unai and Wenger) levels.
Part of that freedom for Xhaka is because of the introduction of Thomas but it’s also because of Arteta’s midfield approach which minimizes Xhaka’s exposure and gives him more time on the ball. In a sense, Xhaka has been reborn under Arteta. It’s one of his biggest accomplishments in my opinion.
Partey on
I know the stats. In a head-to-head comparison with Xhaka, Thomas Partey doesn’t pass as progressive as Xhaka, doesn’t complete as many passes, doesn’t pass into the final third and penalty area as often, and even progressive carries distance is lower (all stats are per90). So why is it that I feel like Thomas is more direct than Xhaka?
Almost every one of my notes mentions his directness and it’s definitely something I believe to be true. One reason for the discrepancy is that Partey does dribble more, carry into the final third more, and overall carries the ball forward more than Xhaka. He is also able to get out of pressure better than Xhaka. But that’s not what I mean.
What I’m seeing is a player who looks up field all the time. A guy who looks to pick out long, forward passes more often than not. A player who is “very direct”. So, why doesn’t it show in the stats? Why isn’t he leading Arsenal in per90 progressive passing?
Maybe I’m just biased!
Saka Saka Saka Saka
Bukayo Saka is player of the season both according to the Arsenal fans and my notes. It’s not an exaggeration to say that this young man often carried Arsenal when we were at our worst. In many games he was the one who took over when we had nothing going on and tried to make something out of nothing. He won 3 pens for Arsenal this season (2 in EL, one in PL) all from his drive and desire to get into the box.
He was 3rd on the team in shots taken with 73 (all competitions) and before you say “so what, how many goals?” His 61 shots in the Premier League were 2nd most by any player under 20 in all of the top five leagues. A young player getting shots is one of my tried and trusted methods for determining if a player is going to be a star – because just getting shots alone is difficult and for a young player to get more than 50 shots is relatively rare.
It’s even more impressive considering the fact that he played wingback 7 times this season and a further 4 times where it was unclear if he was a fullback or a midfielder. And even if you felt compelled to instruct me that a wingback and fullback aren’t the same or that “a fullback in the modern game isn’t the same as a fullback in the old days, gramps” we are still talking about a player who played wide all season getting 61 shots off in the Premier League. And actually, while I’m at it here? Those 61 Premier League shots led Arsenal. Yeah, he led Arsenal in shots taken in the Premier League. More than Auba, Pepe, and Lacazette.
Now, he did have a rather poor shots on target record (21/61) but that is something he can improve. And his shots selection, shots on goal, and goal scoring will improve the more he is played forward. Sadio Mane didn’t get 60 shots in a season until he was 23 years old (Southampton) and he scored 10 goals that season. The point here is that we need to nurture this young talent and play him in a more forward role. Playing him as a fullback next season would be criminal.
We also need to get him some protection. The number of times I wrote in my notes that teams were targeting him for fouls was shocking. I’ve often wanted football to be a bit more like Hockey: let us bring on a guy like Frimpong who would just go out and wreck the opposition MFer who is targeting our best players! But alas, football is not like that. So, we need our team to stand up for him. Maybe the refs will call things a bit tighter now that he’s an England international. But to my eyes he wasn’t getting no-calls (he led Arsenal in fouls drawn with 64, next was Lacazette with 54) it’s just that teams were rotationally fouling him. Another sign that he’s our best player and biggest threat.
Chambo
Arsene Wenger signed him from Southampton all the way back in 2014. That was an entire lifetime ago. Since then he’s gone on loan several times and when he’s been back at the club never been able to nail down a starting spot. He’s almost never even been able to nail down a single position which suits him.
And this season Mikel Arteta saw something in him that I think few of us had. Most people who talk about Calum are obsessed with the idea that he could play as Arsenal’s DM, and when normal people did mention him as a starter for Arsenal it was almost always as a RCB in a back three. Even when Wenger played him at RB he was more of a defender than marauding fullback.
Chambers has had a few odd games here and there before this season. In 2019 he had a three assist match at RB in the League Cup tie against Nottingham Forest. But those types of performances were few and far between.
This season, however, after March, Arteta decided to throw him in at RB and let him get forward. It was a gamble which proved quite fruitful. In his 2nd match at RB, Chambers set up two West Ham own goals with wicked driven crosses from the right. He doesn’t get credit for an assist but those crosses were so dangerous that the West Ham players needed to get a boot on them or they were going to be an easy tap in for an Arsenal forward. You’ll often hear me talk about this type of cross – they are virtually unstoppable once they get past the wide defender.
From there, he went on to set up goals in the Europa League tie against Slavia Prague and in the Premier League against West Brom and Brighton. He only gets credit for three assists this season but that’s 1/3 of his career tally. In just two months.
As much as I criticize Arteta (and let’s face it, the attacking play is poor) I have to give him credit when he gets things right and his use of Calum Chambers was one of those things.
Big questions remain, however, over Calum’s future at the club. Is he really good enough to be our full-time RB? My gut says no. But this guy is a survivor. He is one player you can never count out.
Pepe’s right leg
I don’t know how rare it is for a player over the age of 24 to learn a new trick but I can only think of one or two who have pulled it off. Romelu Lukaku is one of those guys: he’s a tireless worker in training and is always looking to improve himself and his game. It’s more often the case that a player like Pepe will reach a level and then just cash in. And from a human standpoint, that makes sense! We all have heard the stories about talented players who just didn’t keep working at their talents and rode their initial burst. For me, the most waste of talent I’ve ever seen is Mario Balotelli. That kid had it all: touch, creativity, speed, size. Now he’s 30 and playing football in Serie B. But Pepe is one of those rare players who does work on his faults, and seems to have some hidden talent for it as well.
Early in this season, against Leicester, you could literally hear Brendan Rodgers yelling “show him outside” every time Pepe got the ball. Pepe tried to use his right foot but the crosses were weak and his dribbling with that foot looked uncoordinated.
I don’t know whether someone had a word with him or if he just suddenly realized (almost two years into his tenure at Arsenal) that he can’t just go left like he did all the time in France but whatever happened, Pepe decided to start using his right foot. He’s still a largely left-footed passer (88%) and shooter, but.. he’s scored 4 goals this season on his right foot. From what I can tell, he’s only scored 7 total goals with his right foot in his career! That’s including the 4 he scored this season.
I have to applaud him and the coaches and whomever’s been working with him on this. There was a goal he scored in his brace against Brighton where he surprised the defenders by taking a right-footed shot. That’s the kind of thing that should see him score more goals in the future. Now, next up he needs to add an aerial threat.
Auba had malaria
That’s it. That’s the entire tweet. Maybe lay off him a bit?
On Partey: I think the reason he seems more direct is the choice of pass.
Xhaka’s passing is very tidy but he often finds people in pockets of space, where they have been allowed to move by defenders who are still in control of that space. The player who receives the ball then has to either do something special, or there has to be some movement around him, or else he has to make a sideways or backwards pass. Xhaka’s pass on its own didn’t develop the play.
By contrast you see Partey fire in passes to players who are more closely marked, because if they turn away from their marker or lay it off, the team can attack space that isn’t controlled. Often he pushes passes just past his target, inviting them to turn and run on to them. He invites more direct movement ahead of him. He also follows up his own passes with more direct running.
Both players can make both kinds of pass, but there’s a notable difference in style. One of the reasons why ESR made us better was that he can take up both types of position to receive the ball, but he works particularly well with Partey.
Also Xhaka I think is hitting his passes from further back, away from pressure, hence they are longer. Partey’s more comfortable taking the ball into pressure before he releases the pass.
Which I think is part of reason for the decision to sanction the sale of Xhaka, Greg. Partey can be the progressive partner… but one who is more defensively secure than Xhaka was. It means the incoming central midfielder would be a conventional holder, someone like Fabinho. If we get a world class addition at the back of midfield, Partey, a box to box in Willock and able backups in Elneny and an emerging Under 23, I’d be happy with that. At AM, I hope we succeed with Aouar this time, as it looks as if Ancelotti wont sell Odegaard to us.
Tim nails it on the head on Xhaka, and on Pepe. Echoes completely my thougghts on these guys. Nothing more to add. Epic work.
Very little quibble from me on Tim’s synopsis of his chapters of notes. Do like the extrapolation you give Greg, on the how/why of Partey offering more dynamic style with his play and decision-making than does Xhaka, stats and all. Arteta did the best with what he had regarding Granit. Still, even with Xhaka performing at his personal peak statistically? Meant limiting those around him by degrees– to protect against exposure of Xhaka’s lesser traits.
Sambi Lokonga (personal terms agreed reported) looks a hybrid 7/8 midfielder– sharing traits with Thomas Partey. Lokonga’s all-round athleticism would be a definitive upgrade.
Thanks for doing all this…a lot of work.
I’d agree with most of this analysis. Arteta has done some things right this season, and you’ve called out a few of them here.
Completely agree on the Auba front. It was definitely a risk giving him the big new contract. And on the basis of last season, looks like a pretty big mistake. But last season was a big outlier due to COVID, and Auba had external things even beyond that. We’ll see what happens in the first half of next season before I’m ready to write him off.
Arsenal were completely justified in giving Auba his new contract, and a raise.
And did I miss the part where Tim said it was a risk? Funny, I heard no one expressing these hindsight fears after he killed in the two preceding seasons. Let’s see how he’s deployed, the service he gets and how he does this coming season. His track record — nothing less than a reliable scorer — gives me hope.
Auba is an elite striker not playing in Europe, let alone the Champions League. He’s worth every penny we’re paying him. From reports, there wasnt a stampede for his signature in this current market, but we’re lucky that he signed an extension.
I didn’t say Tim said it here. But it was a risk due to his age, and there was discussion at the time as to whether we should be giving him a new contract or looking to cash in. This was partly due to the Ozil contract disaster.
For the record, I was in favor of it, but there certainly were questions at the time as to whether it was a good idea to give him a big new long term contract. This isn’t just hindsight talking.
On a completely different note, Saka doing really well in his first start for England.
” I’ve often wanted football to be a bit more like Hockey: let us bring on a guy like Frimpong who would just go out and wreck the opposition MFer who is targeting our best players!”
The days of the knuckle-dragging Enforcer are largely over in the NHL as speed and skill have taken over as the in-demand attributes of certainly the top 2 lines* in any team. The ethos of “you mess with him and you mess with us”, however, certainly remains a big part of hockey culture.
Everyone knows you don’t mess with top players like Conner McDavid and Auston Mathews.
One of our top players and a big NHL star, John Tavares was knocked out of the playoff with concussion and a leg injury after a crushing mid-ice hit. It was completely unintentional but on the very next shift change there was payback as one of guys beat the opposition player to a pulp, or at least got in a few good punches.
After the game, the first thing our guy said was, “I know it wasn’t intentional, He’s a good guy, I know him (the opposition player who hit Tavares) but it was more about paying for the hit.”
All for one, and one for all. No hiding.
(* Hockey teams play their 30-to-90 second shifts in 4 forward “lines”, two wingers and a center.)
Re: CZE vs ENG
“…Number 5 is Bukayo Saka
Number 6 is Bukayo Saka
Number 7 is some villain
Number 8 is Bukayo Saka.. “
The kid is a Swiss Army knife. See the big hug he got from Southgate after being subbed off at 83′. He is going to start throughout the knockout stages as far as the Three Lions go.
Sincerely hope so. As an England fan as well as an Arsenal one.
Great post Tim. Thanks for all of your hard work
Agree about Ceballos 0 goals and 5 assists in over 3200 minutes for a player who spent a significant part of those minutes as the attacking mid is worse then underwhelming. I think everyone agrees the thing this squad lacked is creativity and goal scoring. You can find creative players in the loan market and Ceballos, Odegaard and Willian were all attempts to bring some creativity into the squad. Odegaard was the arguably most successful and he had a few really good games but overall I thought his influence faded near the end of the year and other then he was also underwhelming.
Agree about Xhaka, I am glad we sold him.
Amazing to me that Chambers is often preferred to Bellerin. A couple years ago Hector was considered a world class RB who was potentially a $50M fullback. To me it shows how much we tend to over rate our own players especially when they are younger.
With regard to Pepe’s right leg. There is no doubt that every coach he has ever had since pre-teen has been trying to work with him to develop his right leg. Who know why it seems to have finally sunk in at age 24 but his right leg did look better this year. Some players are late bloomers. RVP’s chocolate leg certainly got better in his mid to late 20’s and sometimes stuff like that just happens.
Saka was our player of the year. His long term ceiling will depend on whether or not he starts to score more goals. We have had players like him before such as Ox who was incredibly talented but Ox never scored much or created the end product needed from a wide forward and he hit a ceiling a lot lower then we had expected. I think Iwobe was similar. Arsene and Arsenal have trying to develop youth players since the start of “project youth” around 2005/6 and we don’t have a single academy player who has ever score more then 10 in a season or produced more then 10 assists in a season and none have really developed into long term difference making players. I have to admit I am not confident that Saka will be different then all of those over highly rated heavily hyped prospects and he will end up being the next Ox or Iwobe but only time will tell.
Your post sums up that Arteta has done a great job of bringing the best out if a difficult situation. Minimise weaknesses, develop talent and bring in new blood.
Now the key is to start next season with better balance
It is nice to see a positive take on the season. Of course you were not going to jot down how for majority of games we would be passive or ineffective, highlighting the big points can provide perspective some times. I also like your takes on the players mentioned and also what Greg said about the differences between Xhaka and Partey.
My thoughts on Ceballos, I am learning can be biased. I have observed him since he was young and I love the player, his skill set and character. So I wouldn’t trust my opinion on him, even if I try to be as honest as possible.
On Xhaka, what Greg said about his stats, and the fact that he was playing his passes from further back, under less pressure and into safer places. I am hoping that Mikel and Edu understand the importance of such a role when replacing him. If Xhaka’s role was Mikel making do with what he had, hopefully he will be right about what will elevate Arsenal’s midfield when replacing Xhaka. I also struggle to see Partey being a bulk passer for a team, or a player that can be tasked with controlling the flow of the game. He might need a Rodri like he had at Atletico Madrid, maybe a Julien Weigl might just unlock Partey’s full potential. I am sick and tired of Arsenal wasting talent by not getting the players that are capable of matching their talent level or at least covering for their weak spots. Fabregas, Van Persie, Carzola, Ozil, Sanchez, Aubameyang and now Partey.
I will also admit that Partey did exceed my expectations this past season and I was wrong earlier on when I compared him to a high quality Elneny. They play differently and coincidentally might just be our best midfield combination for big games currently. Partey is very good and I see why we got him. But just like with so many other signings, I feel like he should have been Coquelin’s replacement instead of Xhaka. He would have been great with Santi in that double pivot, but now we have to hope they don’t f*ck his partner like they did with Santi’s.
I like what you said about shooting being an indicator of how far a player would go Tim, especially for a young player. Most kids are shy and look for a way to pass the responsibility onto someone else, and those that shoot a lot at young ages are mostly the arrogant types that thrives at age level but fall by the way side easily. Sara is amongst those special few who play for the team, but is not afraid to step up when the situation calls for it. For a young kid who performs so many different duties on the pitch for his team to also be its highest shot taker is scarily impressive. Cristiano shoots a lot but that comes at the expense of his team play, and Neymar is so in love in his teams play and carrying his side that he does not get enough shots off to score like the two greats of the last 15 years. Sara falls into the same bracket as a Messi (not saying he is as good or will ever be), they have such a scary balance in that they can be a big part of the team’s play and also be the player taking the shots. We all already knew, but we may have a seriously special one on our hands.
To be honest though, I don’t have much positive stuff to take away from last except my assertion that if a coach does not implement his philosophy the moment he steps in the door, and decides to survive while making changes, he will make many mistakes and his time spent “fixing” things will be wasted development time. Last season was so many steps taken back, I wonder if Mikel has the coaching, recruitment or management chops to get this team out of the hole he has dug up for us. Individual improvements of players seems like a strong point for him, but it has sorely been limited to wide forwards and Xhaka in his time coaching.
Hopefully he signs well, gets a structure that will allow these players to play his foot ball and we get results. He doesn’t have to win the league or get top four, but if there can be signs of progress which can lead to top four and challenging in the future, then he will have the backing of everyone (mostly). But a continuation of what he has been doing is going to lead him nowhere, and fast. Hopefully we will be able to buy Graham Potter out of his contract if Mikel fails. Here’s to hoping he succeeds.
Didn’t notice auto-correct changed Saka to Sara.
Noticed, but kept quiet since it sounded sexy
Not cool man. You made milk come out my nose laughing at that.
Drink-blogging. A dangerous combo.
1) Hand your keyboard to a friend.
2) Ask them to tap the ‘Home’ key.
3) Sleep it off. 🙃
Tim, on an unrelated note I believe you have been making the point for a while about it not being VAR that’s the problem but the way it is being implemented in the PL. I have to say, wow VAR at the Euros is so mind-blowingly better than in the PL and I now get what you mean.
Have to imagine / hope this tournament kills the voices calling for it to be scrapped in England, and instead there is a large voice for change in application.
Ps having said that it’s still not 100% perfect – it endorsed a poor penalty call by Mike Dean’s Spanish cousin for France
I wasn’t seeing into the future or anything, I just watch a lot of football from all over the world and basically every other country does VAR better than England did.
Nothing is going to be 100% correct!
Yes, I think the sooner we all just learn to accept that the laws of the game are subjective the sooner we can all get back to enjoying the game.
he only got one of those 3 penalty calls right. it’s probably cost him the chance to officiate the final.
i appreciate the comprehensive notes. like most, i agree with greg’s assertion that partey plays the more dangerous passes into the forward areas. he’ll play the ball hard to lacazette’s feet when he’s got someone on his back…as he knows laca won’t mind that. likewise, we’ve seen him play a through ball to laca late in the brighton game. i don’t care how many yards per game he plays forward passes. if he recognizes the critical moments to execute and makes those passes, i’m good with him being as conservative as he deems necessary.
i mentioned this before but i think xhaka simply grew up a bit. after the choke game you mention, he came back from suspension playing better football. i call it growing up as he seemed to play within himself and stopped attempting things he’s no good at. armed with that awareness, he got baited into fewer fouls, more readily recognizing the plays he couldn’t make. it may be arteta but, after that red card, i think it just came down to his experience and not wanting to be that guy costing the team anymore with sendings off.
the jury’s out on chambers but i appreciate his effort. i’ve never understood all the hype with bellerin but if he’s still an arsenal player at the start of the season, we’ll see if he can reclaim his spot in the summer. i agree 100% concerning loanees. ceballos was not a bad player. he may be a guy that needs to play regularly in order to play well. johan djourou was the same way. i believe there’s a player there. we’ll see. odegaard was a necessary loan signing. saka? ’nuff said.
Chambers is a proper defender at RB. Hector is not. He’s great going forward, so-so at the back. What you lose with Chambers is Hector’s attacking knit-intelligence, but you gain more defensive security. Hector is not a good tackler, for example. You want thrills? Watch any game with him and Mustafi on the right side of a back 4. HB is the perfect back 5 player. Remember he’s a converted winger, with Arsene trying the create Lauren II. Hector, though, is an Arsenal treasure. He’s (mostly) struck the perfect balance between the on-field and the off. The club and the dressing room will miss him.
i know i’m in the minority but i simply never fancied hector. for me, he was a step down but still a competent young backup to mathieu debuchy and that’s all he’s ever been. in fact, i believe debuchy was more of a lauren mk ii in that he used to play midfield before being converted to right back. after debuchy’s injury, i thought the frenchman should have been brought back into the side. debuchy was a french international who displaced bacary sagna for both club and country. for me, hector had a few good games but has never been anywhere near the level of either sagna nor debuchy. however, wenger felt different and the rest is history.
Josh
Its not an exaggeration to say that prior to his injury the consensus opinion on the blog I used to follow regarding Hector was he was already a world class attacking RB and destined to be one of the great fullbacks. There were rumors that Barcelona was looking at him a few years ago and his value could be the highest of any fullback in history and easily >$50M. His bursts of pace were/are really eye catching similar to players like Walcott and the eye catching quotient often causes a lot of people and may be even Arsene to over rate some players. Unfortunately eye catching and effective are not always the same thing.
The comp that comes to mind for Bellerin is Jordi Alba. Had you put Jordi in Arsenal and Bellerin to Barcelona I think they have nitro image careers. England is an unforgiving place for smallish defenders. See for example the elbow Marcos Alonso planted into him en route to scoring a header against us that was widely lauded as Alonso wanting it more, rather than seen for the foul that it was. Plus he would get to play on the best team of the past decade, maybe the best team ever for a while there.
All this to say is that I love Hector but he was the wrong player for us, in hindsight. In the big games, his size and tackling got exposed.
Good point Doc. Alonso should have seen straight red for that foul. But that’s another debate. I do think, however that Hector never recovered from that shot to the head. I think that took something out of him that he’s never been able to overcome.
I agree. In that regard he reminds me of another promising Spaniard who was bullied out of this league, JA Reyes (god rest his soul).
This makes me appreciate Fabregas even more in hindsight. He wasn’t the biggest player and he was targeted plenty but he never got a complex about it. Not that Hector and Reyes were wrong to prioritize their health and mental well-being. Most of us would do the same. It just shows the kind of cloth Cesc was cut from. Unfortunately even he could only do it for so long.
I thought Hector was really exciting to watch and hoped he might be the one to break the pattern of most of our heavily hyped youth players. Unfortunately, he has been another example of a player who looks great at the academy level and has a really strong beginning of his first team career but never reaches his theoretical potential. We all hope a player will continue to develop and improve with more experience but for some reason that does not happen and they end up with a ceiling which is much lower then we had hoped or expected. I don’t know the answer but the most reasonable explanation I have heard is the players start out well because of an early adrenaline surge but once that wears off and the rest of the league gets to know their tendencies the early hype and promise is never fulfilled.
There have been literally hundreds of heavily hyped and highly rated players to come thru our academy and dozens more we have purchased at a very young age with hopes of developing to reach their high potential. To me Serge Gnabry and perhaps Wojo Szczesny are the only youth player/players since the start of “project youth” who eventually developed into players who have been true difference makers and potential star players for a top 4 contending team.
Wojo showed some potential but was mostly a mess playing for Arsene. It would be interesting to know what Gnabry would have done in the PL
Longstride
We always look for some reason to explain why a player does not reach his potential but to me its really grasping for straws to imply that everything might have been different if the play with Alonso had never happened to Hector. I think the reality is Hector was a very entertaining and eye catching player to watch and because of that we over rated how good he really was. I did the same. In our defense I think Arsene also thought the same thing.
I just read through all the parts of your season review. What a mammoth task and some great reporting and insights. Thanks, Tim.
It’s funny you mention it not being personal with Ceballos. In my 23+ years of watching Arsenal there have been only 2 players I have taken an instinctive dislike too. Dani boy is one of them. So I’m definitely biased against him. But I think while he offers some ball control and can thread a pass through, more often than not he tries to do too much himself and ends up slowing/confusing the Arsenal attack. I would not have got him back for a second season, but this is the price we’re paying for getting rid of Ramsey. In fact, if he’s available for cheap, I wouldn’t mind bringing Ramsey back and letting him mentor ESR and Willock. But I doubt Arteta will ever agree to that. Ramsey, hard worker though he is, isn’t the sort to just meekly fall in line, and having been his teammate, Arteta would know that.
My personal preference would be for Arsenal to prioritise HG players from within the club. Buy 2-3 established players at LB, CM (because Guen is Gonzo), and AM, and use the youth to flesh out the squad. But we’re seemingly not settled at GK (selling Emi looking like a worse decision in the longer term) and at RB. We’re looking to add a CB, get rid of some young talent we could do with, and have contract terms to consider with some important first team players. We’re giving ourselves too much to do and will fall short, or make stupid short term decisions.
I don’t think we are going to make top 4 next year and I’d rather we build for the longer term, while bringing back some of the Arsenal ethos. Reading through your notes, it struck me how little attention I was paying to some of those games. I didn’t particularly care whether we won or lost. That is the worst feeling in all of my days as an Arsenal fan. I never didn’t care. I hope we can start playing better football, and behaving with the class we’re accustomed to. But I don’t have faith in this process. I wonder how long Arteta and Edu will be able to hide now that (it seems) fans will be back in the stadium. Surely they expect better performances if not results.
Shard
To be a top team you need to build around star players like Fabregas, RVP, Ozil, Cazorla, Sanchez etc. Arsenal and Arsene tried to prioritize home grown players starting in 2005. The academy group he put together was deep and filled with highly rated and heavily hyped young players and he augmented the academy talent by purchasing young players like Walcott, Diaby, Denilson, Song Ramsey Ox etc.etc. Back then the league was not as deep or strong as it is now. If Arsene at the height of his powers working with all of that talent and potential during a time when the league was not strong could not make the home grown strategy really work then its hard for me to accept that it can work for us now. Anything is possible but trying to develop star players and build around home grown talent seems a very low percentage strategy.
Bill, I think you’re confusing “homegrown”, “academy” and “purchased young”. Plus, young non-British purchases like Fabregas and Senderos counted as homegrown. Clubs generally, mostly buy young players. Not exclusively. Mostly. They hold, increase and retain financial value better. That’s not an Arsene thing… that’s financial common sense. You talk a lot about ‘Project Youth’ in a way that oversimplifies the issue. At season’s end, the DOF/coach/manager(s) look at budget, current roster, academy prospects for promotion, purchase targets. Who goes, stays, comes in, gets promoted is about striking a balance. Arsene, when the Emirates stadium was being financed and built, had to simultaneously find a way to develop the squad, and keep Arsenal competitive/in the Champions League. High cost purchases was not an option. Yes, he made mistakes like the window he brought in only Cech when he had much more money; and yes, he was a coach who favoured prospects over big names. But he played the hand he was dealt.
Thank you for your post.
You have watched many more matches that I have, so all I can comment on is what I have seen from the few Sky games I have watched.
Being the eternal pessimist, I may be regarded as only looking at the bad, but, in truth, I saw so little good, I simply cannot recall it.
I remain amazed how it is possible for someone to t say that Arteta has done great job with what he has, when it is not the players who control the game, but Arteta and he has turned a reasonably good squad into one that has played the worst that many of us have seen for in excess of 25 years and maybe longer.
I am having to to write this in 2 parts, because my computer does not allow me to write too much before the “post comment” button disappears.
I have seen Arsenal play rubbish over the last 60 years or so, but I have never seen it consistently over a whole season, as we saw last season.
As the more creative players have been disposed of one by one, the replacements so far have been more than underwhelming, including, and possible especially Partey, who so many bloggers drool over and yet has shown nothing over a season that would justify this accolade.
(Of course, I should have realised, Partey is not playing well because he ahs to play with Xhaka. Silly me.)
Now lets get rid of Xhaka, Bellerin, Willock, AMN and the other promising youngsters and bring in some more of Arteta’s picks to flop with the Willians and the Cedrics.
I have no expectations for the next season, other than more mediocrity and boring performances.
Maybe I will be brave enough to cancel my Sky a subscription so that I do not have to subject myself to the drivel that is delivered by Arteta’s process.
Maybe I am wrong,. I doubt it.
i agree with bill that many on the blogosphere had a very high opinion of hector’s ability as an attacker. i simply never did. he had many athletic traits that caught the eye such as exceptional speed and quickness. however, i never saw the instinct to be a good defender and that’s the greatest value i place on fullbacks; the ability to defend. more specifically, can you defend 1v1s in wide areas with no cover. anything else they can do is gravy.
with that, i’m in nearly complete disagreement with doc’s assertion that size/height matters for fullbacks in england. height for center backs? yes. tackling ability? yes. however, most fullbacks on average are about 5’10”. the ability to defend in wide areas requires you to be not only fast but quick with good instincts. most tall players, even those with great defensive instincts, simply aren’t very quick, which is why they don’t typically play fullback. ironically, marcos alonso is an outlier as he’s exceptionally tall for a fullback.
as for the collision between alonso and bellerin, it wasn’t a foul. it was a poor aerial challenge from hector. everyone is taught that you put your arms up and try to out jump your opponent to avoid the nasty head collisions when fighting for high balls. hector neither jumped nor put his arms up so how was he going to win or protect himself in that aerial challenges? his aerial technique is as poor as his technique for throw-ins and is the real reason he got his skull smashed.
likewise, i don’t agree with doc that reyes got bullied out of england. sure, the weather sucked, the food was nasty, and the women were ugly, but he wasn’t taken care of by arsene wenger. the primary fail was the luis arragones situation. reyes was in the middle of that but it wasn’t his fault. however, that’s when henry’s treatment of reyes was clear to all of us so it had to be clear to wenger. likewise, reyes was a 19-year old spanish gypsy kid who likely knew nothing about the struggle of black people. even if he did know, he’s still a kid who just got into the spain team. what’s he supposed to do, “stand up and speak up” against the spain manager?
however, the straw that broke the camel’s back is wenger’s decision to omit reyes from the ’06 champions league final. wenger’s on record saying that reyes is a “big game player” and this is the biggest game in arsenal history. i guarantee that everyone on this forum had reyes in their starting line up. he was taking souls in europe that year. despite the red card, he played out of his mind in the fa cup final the year before against man united. this is a guy who’s put the great robert pires on the bench and you’re telling me that ljungberg was a better option for that game?…right before the world cup? …against spanish opposition? …against oleguer? do you even know what oleguer means? that was why reyes announced he wouldn’t come back to arsenal…and why they signed julio baptista.
don’t follow the brit pundits lead when it comes to the club we love. we watch arsenal every week. they watch highlights and, occasionally, “match of the day” on super sunday. they watched a single game against man united and assumed they knew what was real at arsenal. reyes got his ass kicked in training every day by sergio ramos before he got to arsenal. i’m sure gary neville didn’t “kick” him out of england.
You sound very sure of yourself on this Josh. Maybe you have sources weare not privy to?
I am a lot less certain. I do know he wasn’t the same player in the second half of his career. The loan to Sevilla in exchange for an inferior player doesn’t make sense unless there’s something substantially wrong behind the scenes. The scenario you posit is reasonable but I haven’t heard it put forward before. If he was truly on top of his game thought it would’ve made more sense if Real Madrid had bought him. It seems like there wasn’t much interest among the mega clubs of the day and that’s a strike against your theory of a high performer wanting out.
Claude.
I agree that the term “project youth” oversimplifies what was a complex process, however, its a very frequently used term and I think most accept it to describe the 2005 – 10 time period where Arsene made a valiant effort to try and minimize use of transfer budgets as much as possible and really emphasize building the squad using his academy and supplementing the academy by purchasing young players he thought had a high potential and trying to develop them. I remember several times he made the statement that he would not buy expensive players because he was building his own superstars and he did not need to buy them. The media loved the idea and praised Arsene for his imagination and his attempt to change the way teams were build. The media, myself and and nearly all the bloggers I interacted with believed Arsene’s group of youth would mature and develop together and several of them would be stars and together they would win tons of trophies. Unfortunately it did not work because none of those young players developed into the stars we hoped for and expected and Arsene basically had to abandon his project with the end of the Fabregas era in 2011.
The point of revisiting what Arsene tried to do in the 05-11 era is to point out how difficult and how unlikely it is to be successful trying to build a champions league level team by developing home grown youth players.If Arsene could not do it with what I think was a deeper and more talented group of young players then it seems rather unlikely that we can do it now.
Developing young players from the ground up is very hit or miss and the evidence from the last 15 years of Arsenal history shows the miss rate is overwhelmingly high even for the most highly rated players. The other problem is even when a player develops into a top player you have no idea how long it might take to reach his ceiling. Fabregas hit his ceiling almost immediately but RVP took many years to reach full potential. In the last 15 years almost every player who looked like they might have star potential ran into their ceiling which was much lower then hoped for but it took a few years before we realized their ceiling was not as high as expected. Ox, Iwobe and Bellerin are all examples and there are many others. You give those players lots of first team minutes instead of buying another player with the hope that the player will develop into something special as they mature. Every team in the world would love to develop their own players rather then spend huge amounts on transfer fees. However the big teams can’t afford the uncertainty of develop their own youth players and while there are occasional exceptions you don’t see almost no home grown youth players as the difference making star players in the worlds champions league teams because its easier, faster and much more likely to be successful buying the players they need. With the exception of Harry Kane and spurs that has certainly been true in England in this century.