Good morning. I know that you all are just about ready to chew your nails off in nervous anticipation of today’s big showdown between Unai Emery and Mikel Arteta but as an amuse bouche I have a chart for you.
Before I explain the chart or any of my thoughts on the data, I need to apologize: I took a thing, and made it worse. I saw this neat idea on Twitter from an account called UtdArena. They have divided up Man U’s squad into different age buckets – Learn, Refine, Apply, Sustain, Educate. These buckets aren’t completely arbitrary, they are based on data which has found the average prime for players is between 24 and 29 years old. There is still a lot of debate about that but I’m willing to accept it as a baseline for today. From that assumption, they created this infographic:
On the left are the total minutes, across the bottom are the ages of the players. What’s great about this is pretty much everything: you can see which youngsters are way ahead of the others in terms of playing time (and thus have the trust of the manager), you can quickly see what the team’s age profile looks like (United have a great group in the prime area), and I think you could even use this chart to make decisions about who to keep or sell. For example, de Gea. He’s just about to enter the “Educate” realm but he’s no longer a first choice keeper. That might be a good time to evaluate whether he’s worth more in transfers than he is in his leadership skills.
Ok, so here’s the thing I need to apologize for: UtdArena is clearly a good graphic designer and I am clearly not. I understand the underlying data and was able to make my own chart from Arsenal’s data on FBREF but it took me forever to try to figure out how they got their major gridlines to be spaced out like that. And eventually, I just quit trying to figure it out and drew in the lines by hand. Klugey, I know. In fact, my whole chart is whack, I know that. I just don’t have time and skill to make it better right now. Also.. if I’m honest, I don’t really care. UtdArena clearly cares. It’s a good graphic. Me? Erm.. it’s a hammer. It gets the job done. If the job is hammering things. Which today it is.
Ok, so here it is: my attempt at Arsenal’s age bands:
Couple of notes:
- I rounded up and down. If a player was over 200 days into the year, I rounded up. This made my life easy. I could have fractionalized the days pretty simply but you know what? It doesn’t make the chart that much more accurate. Please don’t Meerkat this fact. I am fully aware of how ages work in Western society.
- I added in Guendouzi and William Saliba
- I removed Ceballos
- I used the minutes played for other teams for Willock and Maitland-Niles
- I didn’t include any of the loanees who are playing in lower divisions
Observations:
I knew Saka was playing a lot but he is top 3 of all Arsenal players this season. I’ve seen Arsenal burnout before, it’s real. I hope we figure out a way to manage his minutes next season.
Smith Rowe would probably be up there with Saka had he been fully fit and the manager ready to play him earlier in the season. Saliba and Guendouzi are also getting significant minutes. That indicates high value and high potential for these players in my mind.
On the other end of the scale we have David Luiz, Willian, and P-EA (just entering) the leadership band. I think there could be some value in keeping David Luiz. I think he’s a good guy to have in the locker room from what I’ve heard and his passing stats are still exceptional. Willian, on the other hand, hasn’t shown leadership qualities and it looks like his legs are completely gone. Aubameyang is interesting. He’s the captain and he is also a tremendous goal-poacher. He could remain valuable for a while.
In the “refine” category, we have Gabriel, which is a big surprise. I guess I didn’t know he was getting that many minutes. Perhaps the club think they can improve him before he hits prime.
Meanwhile, Joe Willock and Nketiah are getting good minutes but Maitland-Niles just about to break into prime is a worry. Especially since he’s been moved around from position to position during his “refine” years. I think that helps to explain why it’s been so difficult for him to nail down a position.
In the Prime area, we have a shocking inclusion: Runnarson. Once again, this transfer makes absolutely no sense. I get it that keepers enter their prime later than outfielders but he is full-on 26 years old. Astonishing transfer, really.
Chambers above him is a late inclusion. The boss just deciding to play Chambers in the last few months. Interesting that he’s a prime player with Holding, Bellerin, Tierney, and Pablo Mari. Makes me wonder if that’s our set back four?
Anyway, that’s what I have for you today. Hopefully, it will take your mind off the match which is starting in 4 hours. Until then!
Nice try, Tim… but my mind is still on the upcoming match today. However, I must say that I’m not as nervous as I usually am before “big” games. If fact, I haven’t been in a long time. Losses and even draws used to hamper my (weekend) mood but not anymore. I’m much more pragmatic these days, and see things much more clearly. First of all, it’s still just a game. There are more things in this life to get upset over. Secondly, if we don’t go through, it might just bring Arteta closer to the sack because there’s nothing left to fight for this season, and let’s be honest with ourselves, it’s been a complete disaster. The amount of unwanted records that Mikel and Co. broke this season is staggering. Frankly, I’m amazed he’s still in the job. If we do progress, however, then it’s an opportunity to play in the final, and a chance to qualify for next season’s Champions League with a win. So not all is lost, fellow Gooners. For now, let’s just cheer on the team/boys, and hope that we spank Mr. Good Ebening silly.
saka’s numbers are worrying.
david luiz’ passing was top notch on sunday; those diagonals as well as that peach he played down the line to hector before the elneny goal.
Great data.
My takeaway of comparing ARS to MU: we have a much less settled “first string”… We would have 2 outfield players in the “70% club”… and shockingly only 2 outfield players even in the 62% club if my BOE math is right.
Some of that is injury (looking at you, KT)… but mostly it is a lack of quality or Arteta’s lack of confidence in his side.
Finally, I’m kinda surprised to see Willian as low as he is. Clearly I’ve got PTSD from all of his early season minutes, but I would have guessed much higher.
Respect (from a designer) for the layout Tim. Sometimes info is best offered sans arcana. This is one of them.
Did anyone start the year thinking Holding was going to be the rock in defense? Much as I admire Rob and his lunch-pail work ethic– it does highlight what the manager has had to do to prop up his defend-first tactics.
A few of those with a good chunk of minutes made into squad depth? Bringing aboard 1-2 new signings, incorporating Saliba (or Mavropanos) or polishing a gem like Balogun, Azeez or Nelson? Moving along 3-4 for value– adding places in the team? Hard to dismiss the potential for improvement this Summer.
Interesting and different from the usual team/player analyses. Great work in researching and repurposing it for Arsenal. Kudos once again.
Unfortunately your lines did the reverse of taking my mind off the game:
“It gets the job done. If the job is hammering things. Which today it is.”
I am wishing Arsenal do the same as your “Klugey” chart.
Well, that was a disaster… 0-0 at home to Unai Emery’s “Mighty” Villarreal is simply unacceptable. If MA gets to keep his job after failing to qualify for Europe for the first time in nearly quarter of a century then we’ll know for sure that Kroenke’s don’t give a damn about our club. Can anyone honestly say that Arteta is the man who’s going to take us forward? Can anyone in the right state of mind give this man another dime to spend in the summer transfer window? I certainly can’t…
*Raises hand slowly*
No it was not good this season. I vote for stability and trust in a manager who I believe has made mistakes but also takes responsibility for them. He has the love and respect of his players and he understands Arsenal. I don’t think sacking him will improve things and may just make them worse. This club has been in utter chaos since Wenger’s departure (we pushed for that too lest we forget; hasn’t helped) and as much as we might want to see heads roll after the latest setback, that’s no way forward.
“He has the love and respect of his players”
I really don’t think this is true. Especially after subbing Auba off.
Why wouldn’t it be true?
“He has the love and respect of his players”
Jesus Doc, first a “medal for Arteta “ and now this?
Have you been experiencing some ill effects of recent Covid vaccine or something?
If the. Club don’t sack Arteta this morning they send a clear message to the players, the club, our competitors and us the fans that failure is acceptable and we don’t care about winning.
‘I vote for stability and trust in a manager who I believe has made mistakes but also takes responsibility for them. He has the love and respect of his players and he understands Arsenal’
Sorry doc, but all of the above is sophist BS with little to no meaning. You’ve got to come out of the Wenger hangover now….
Well, it’s pretty hard to look at the results and say we’ve made progress under Arteta. The table position is worse, and most of the stats are worse than they were under Emery. We’ve been terrible at home. And Emery just beat us, and it’s not like we looked particularly impressive in the two matches.
And with no European football, not going to be much money for a rebuild. This could be a tough couple of years coming up.
Looks like we are owned by the lioNs ownership in the nfL.
Have not won a playoff game in 25 years and do not give one flying f…
This club will never win jack with the scum we have as owners, and all the way down to the coach.
The Parasite owner continues to drop this club further and further down, and circling the drain.
Needing just one…
Auba’s pair– one off the outside– one off the inside of a post.
ESR’s too-strong chip missed the goal and Pepe lurking.
Hector’s chip just out of Martinelli’s reach.
Holding’s pair of open headers.
Unfortunate.
If the players are astute, which they should be considering what a nasty vindictive piece of crap Fraudeta can be, what about players having skilfully downed their tools ?
Like oh fuck , I slipped. With all those accurate misses too !
Always felt we had a squad good enough for 4th place.
Same problem we have had all season. No goal scoring firepower. That was the most technically skilled aggressive attacking line up that was available. There is nothing any manager can do if those players are not able to make something happen and score a goal. It can never be a surprise when we get shut out with a starting line up that has 1 player who has ever scored more then 12 league goals in their entire career and that one player has seen his goal totals drop by more then half in his age 32 season. There is not a manager in the entire world who could take this squad and find some sort of tactical solution that would compensate for our lack of firepower. If we hired Pep his only answer would be to spend about a billion dollars.
“That was the most technically skilled aggressive attacking line up that was available. There is nothing any manager can do if those players are not able to make something happen and score a goal.”
This is pretty far off the mark. It wasn’t the players who were told to play ultra conservative in the first half. It was clear to me that we worked it wide for most of the game and told the wide players to hold up the ball and make a triangle to play into. Few overlaps, few runs beyond the back line, it wasn’t the players that was entirely down to the manager.
And the evidence for the manager being to blame is that the second half, players started doing the things that needed to be done to get a goal. That’s when we created our best chances. And right after the best chance of the game? Arteta takes Auba off for… WILLIAN.
Shocking from Arteta.
The better team won on the day. This was Unai’s revenge game and he played his hand perfectly. The tentative start didn’t help, but we never found a way to control the match and play in their half. Their press was good, they knew where to set traps and they were good at frustrating us by keeping the ball too. Karen Carney called a great game and pointed out how Arsenal could’ve played long diagonals in response and piled pressure on that suspect goalie, but the approach play overall was far too cautious and predictable. The only in form and match fit attacker out there was Pepe and it showed. The chemistry wasn’t there, the sharpness was missing, players didn’t have or didn’t see options for progressive passes, and this Villarreal team knew exactly what to do to shut down our passing lanes.
People pointed out that Auba had a poor game. Yes because we hardly spent any time in the final 3rd and when we did, he was marked by two defenders. Nobody got time and space on the ball to pick him out. Those Villareal players embraced the dogged underdog thing and they have just enough talent to cause problems too. Perhaps typically of Spanish sides they are tactically astute and technically sound. They and Unai are a perfect match for each other and it shows in their results. They know who they are and they leverage their strengths well. Arsenal have yet to create such unity on a consistent basis.
“The better team won on the day.“
It’s not what Arteta thinks and said.
Arsenal got outplayed and outcouched by Villarreal in both legs , and only kept in it thanks to the pen that wasn’t.
And knowing they needing to score decided to sleep walk through the entire first half which, judging by Arteta’s body language, was completely according to plans.
The term shocking doesn’t do it justice.
I agree. Arteta was either disingenuous or deluded with that comment. Neither speaks well.
Much as I wanted him to succeed, the only correct decision is to replace him. That probably won’t happen though, in which case he’s a lame duck for first half of next season and then gone by Christmas (fans back in the stadium voicing their worries after a mid table start and dull football will pretty much ensure that is the case).
My only silver lining to this is the Kroenkes suffer, so perhaps a battle lost but a small step towards winning the war of them selling.
Really bad end to the season.
Nothing to play to far now, except pride. This match was definitive proof that Arteta needs to go somewhere else and massively improve his approach. Such a shame, because I was really rooting for him.
Very little penetration into the final third despite all our passing. Auba cut a frustrated figure, clearly not 100% but he had no support.
Sigh…time to break it off for me. I still bleed red and white but it’s time to heal the wounds of this season and move on to other hobbies. See you all in August. Be safe, be well and may may better times come to Arsenal and personally, to all of us.
Thanks Tim for another great season of some truly great reads. Please keep it up. You’re really good at this. Better than Arteta as his job. And he gets paid!
Cheers!
Tim
How do we know what the players were told in the pregame planning? We had 56% of the ball possession and outshot them 14-8. How many hundreds of times did we see a Wenger team playing with the handbrake and having tons of sterile possession and looking completely underwhelming and then getting desperate later in the game when they couldn’t get anything done earlier. Do you really believe that Wenger was telling the players to be conservative and spend 2/3 of the game making useless hundreds of useless passes 35 yards from goal?
We have looked great in plenty of games against lower level opposition so the idea that Arteta can’t get away from his ultraconservative way of thinking does not make sense. The whole point of the oppositions defense is to prevent us from doing what we want and we have seen all season that this squad can overwhelm the lower level opponent but it does not have the talent to effectively execute a game plan and score goals against a good defensive team. The idea that what we see the players doing on the pitch is exactly what the manager wants is just not realistic.
To me the problem is the same as it has been for years: the engine room. Partey is half of a functioning midfield but we need the other half and Granit Xhaka is the closest we have to that and he was not available. The game tonight was exactly how a team without control in midfield looks regardless of how much attacking talent it has. Saka, Odegaard and ESR are not central midfielders and Partey can’t do it on his own.
Doc, Arteta said on tv that he intended Xhaka to play left back.
So if you think the problem was his absence in midfield, then you are saying he got it tactically wrong (yet) again, which does contrast somewhat with your other comments above.
For what it’s worth, I agree with you that Xhaka should have partnered Partey. But irrespective of his warm up injury, the fact that this was not Arteta’s plan is just another nail in the coffin for me as to why sadly I think the correct decision for the club is to replace him.
I watched the game.
Willian came on for Tierney who I suspect was running out of gas just coming back from injury. Lacazette came on for Auba who also might have been running out of gas and Laca has been our best goal scorer this season but he was just coming back from injury and probably could not have played the entire game. Martinelli came on for Odegaard which is another attacking sub and Nketiah came on for Bellerin. All those subs seem to make sense given the fact that we needed to get to try and find some way to score a goal.
Dr Gooner.
I thought both Odegaard and ESR were supposed to be central midfielders. All season I have heard people suggesting that ESR changed everything when he moved into the #10 role. Do you really believe that neither of those players are capable of being central midfielders?
The other problem is even with a fantastic engine room you can’t score enough goals if you don’t have goal scorers in your line up. The idea that anyone can score goals is just not realistic. Think of all of the players that Arsene tried to turn into goal scorers from our academy and we had arguably one of the best engine rooms in the world. Since 2005 we have seen a whole bunch of talented forwards come thru the academy but not a single one of them has ever scored more then 10 league goals in a season. Players like Gervinho, Welbeck, Sanogo could not score despite playing in front of a strong engine room. A team can’t score without goal scorers in your line up.
The team sheet looked great – finally, Saka back at LB where it all started! A functional misfield! But no, Xhaka still at LB. Then all frustrations about the persistence there were multiplied by Tierney’s last minute inclusion. If he’s fit enough to play 77 minutes, why doesn’t he play from the start?!? Shocking stuff.
Willian coming on in the 70th minute sums up our entire season. Disasterclass all around, especially from the gaffer. Arteta may have soured but pulling the plug and doing another reboot at this stage of his tenure would be hugley demoralizing and costly.
I still see people doing mental gymnastics on here to absolve Arteta of what’s happened today. Why ?!
It’s so strange. You’d think the fans would want what’s best for the club. It baffles me why they would continue to back an individual whose clearly not doing a good enough job for the club they supposedly ‘love’ ? Sunk cost ?
If fans hiding behind a keyboard or in the stands are so reluctant to admit they’re wrong, how can we expect the massive egos of corporate bureaucrats and billionaires to do so ?
Man this is so true.
Devil’s advocate and not actually my opinion:
Arteta inherited a mismatched and disjointed squad without much time to reshape it. Furthermore, ‘positional play’ (e.g. Guardiola’s football) needs players to understand where to be on the pitch quickly and intuitively, and it also needs players across the pitch who are comfortable in possession. When played well it can win leagues, when played badly it is the miserable bore that we currently suffer. With training time and more players who can actually pass well, Arteta’s system might click, and then we’ll play like the second half against West Ham all the time.
What I actually think:
If the manager insists on a system that is entirely unsuited to the players he has available, e.g. relying on slick passing at the back while fielding Leno, Bellerin, Holding and Mari – some decent players in there, but passing is not really their forte – and if the manager’s big signing to make it all click was *Willian* ffs, then maybe the emperor isn’t fashion-forward, he’s just nude. I could go along with the plan last season; playing three-at-the-back to shore up the team after the chaos of late-stage Emery, yeah ok. But only on the promise that expansive football was coming once the ship was turned around. This was crunch time, and the grand flowering of the Arteta project with all the attacking mids in a 4-3-3 produced what amounted to the footballing equivalent of a damp fart noise.
The first point does remain: this squad is imbalanced. It lacks quality and is overpaid, so a rebuild seems inevitable. It’s hard to argue that Arteta has shown that he’s the right man to do it.
I’m happy to hear your plan for how the club should go forward. I’m only hiding behind a keyboard insofar as I am unable to make my physical self manifest on a virtual platform.
‘What’s best for the club.’
Definitions of that aren’t yours alone to decide. Opinions vary. But since I’m one who posted upthread pre-game about the possibilities of improving over the Summer? I’ll take the challenge.
What manager (specifically) is going to come in and revamp this team in such a way as to make it better this Summer? That wants this job? Not seeing a line forming TBH. Then, if Arteta is let go next Winter? Consecutive mid-season firings over 3 years means a Newman comes in with the same obstacles Arteta faced– and puts the club in another 2 year period of settling. After AW left an overpriced, undertalented squad– Emery, then Arteta have only partially shaped their teams to a style. Going to be hard to remake this team any quicker by changing the manager now.
The team is close to maturing a core of young talent– whom, as far as I can tell are still motivated by Arteta. All signs point to his still holding the respect of his players.
The clearest sign we fans will get? Is if there is a lack of financial support to finish the overhaul from AW/Emery reigns.
IMO Mikel Arteta will get another full season. Period. Full stop.
I’m not pleased with very much that happened this season. But I am pragmatic in keeping my vision and opinion at a longer range than some.
And I’m far too large to hide behind a keyboard anyway.
‘ Definitions of that aren’t yours alone to decide. Opinions vary.’
No, winning football matches is what’s best for a football club.You might argue foregoing winning now for a potential to win much more in the future is okay, but winning is best. Period. Full stop.Sorry there’s no more nuance to that.
If you have a bad apple, you don’t stop looking for a better ones because you can’t think of one off the top of your head. That’s just lazy and defeatist.
If we keep going on this trajectory and fans are expected to return, Arteta will not last till December. If he does, it will lead to fan toxicity at unprecedented levels.If a new manager is hastily brought in mid season, we’ll once again have the built in excuse of ‘no pre-season’ and the cycle continues.
Btw, your ‘summer solutions’ ? Arteta has shown he doesn’t like any of them, so I don’t know where this idea that he’s suddenly going to start playing all the young players is coming from.
The generalizations are impressive. Solutions offered? Not so much.. I’m at least optimistic with a way forward– that I’ve expressed. And, if successful? A path for the club to build something sustainable
Reality is what it is. There is no unicorn with a bow. Having played, captained, and managed– some very good and pretty sorry teams over several decades? The patience I am willing to afford Arsenal and Arteta– comes from not giving up on what’s possible.
Buckle up. Or give up.
‘There is no unicorn with a bow’
‘ Buckle up. Or give up’
I give up. There’s no arguing with BS like that.
The thing I understand least about those preaching “patience” or “stability”… do you like this football? The first half was unwatchable, plodding, slow-it-down-play-it-backwards football. The second half wasn’t much better until it was far, far too late.
I’m not sure why you would think I’m any happier with the football or the results than you just because I see a different way forward.
So you’re not happy with the football or the results, but fine with both continuing to be the same ? Okay doc
Sounds like those preaching stability are at an N=1. I’ve stated my case, and I think it’s a good case no matter how much I get roasted for it. Sure, I could be wrong but this is a forum for opinions and I’m sticking to mine.
Sure doc….
Problem is, there’s no evidence anywhere in world football that sticking with an underperforming manager whose not shown any progress for more than a year is going to suddenly work itself out. In fact, the opposite has been truer.
So, while one is free to believe 1+1=3, one shouldn’t be surprised if people question their mental soundness.
I’m good with those who need to vent. It’s healthy. Cheaper than therapy.
Might appreciate insight or details with a bit of depth from those who question opinions that differ from theirs.
Judging by your lame ‘too big to hide behind a keyboard’ joke above, you’re not too good at humour or levity.
I’ll pass
folks, i’ve been touting the value of experience for years. everyone wants to see the next young hotshot prodigy come through, including me. however, that prodigy needs experience to achieve greatness. i love mikel arteta. he’s a consummate pro and one of the smartest players i’ve ever seen play the game. however, as a manager, he’s a nymph. just because he assisted guardiola at man city doesn’t mean he can achieve the same result at arsenal.
first, and foremost, guardiola has been coaching since 2007. second, guardiola inherited a very good barcelona team from frank rijkaard; it would have been very difficult to screw that team up. third, guardiola has never taken a bad team and made them good. these were three challenges that arteta had that guardiola didn’t. arteta had zero experience and he was asked to transition a team with a ton of problems into a good team. its not an emotional thing; you need experience, not just intelligence and desire.
bottom line, this job was too big for an inexperienced arteta. i said it when wenger left. likewise, when emery got the sack, i didn’t sing the praises of arteta. just because you worked with a great surgeon doesn’t mean you’ll be a great surgeon.
bottom line, arteta has coached arsenal to an 8th place finish and they are currently 9th; that’s unsatisfactory for arsenal. the worst thing that could happen to arteta is that he continue in the job. he’ll believe he can still do the job but he can’t. he needs the humility that comes with getting the sack. likewise, he needs some time to reflect on the errors he’s made as arsenal manager to help him move forward…or his progression as a manager will be stunted. he can be a great manager, it just won’t be at arsenal right now.