I get the sense that most of the English fans out there think that the Super League is dead, but it’s not. It’s more like a sick patient on life support and Real Madrid and Barcelona are both pounding its chest and screaming “HANG ON!” and “DON’T YOU DIE ON ME!” like some war movie.
What’s happened this week with Barcelona and Real Madrid is actually important. I know that we are (most of us) English football fans and we tend to think that what our clubs decide is what really makes a difference but these two clubs have an absurd amount of power in European football and they are both in dire straights.
We have spoken about this enough on here that I think most of you understand that what’s going on is that many of these clubs are on the verge of insolvency. Barcelona have been incredibly mismanaged, to the point where they are a billion euros in debt. Real Madrid, Juventus, Inter, and AC Milan are also all in deep trouble. Many of the English clubs which signed up for this are in less trouble but still, Arsenal and Tottenham are listing badly. So, I take them at their word that they saw the (money) train was leaving the station and jumped on board. This was a chance to quickly inject some cash into these behemoths.
It’s telling that PSG and Bayern Munich didn’t need to join. Both of those clubs are financially stable. It’s also telling that Chelsea and Man City were the first to say they will leave the Super League, again, they have owners which prop up their financial stability. They probably only signed on because it was a sweet deal for them and maybe they didn’t think through the consequences.
But the key thing here is that while this very specific “Super League” with a closed shop of 15 teams, not managed by UEFA, is on life support, it’s not dead. Real Madrid and Barcelona have both said that they aren’t fully leaving and Juventus have said that they remain committed to the idea. It’s only a matter of time before these clubs do what they should have done in the first place, and go to either FIFA or UEFA and ask for permission (i.e. give them a cut) to form a super league.
My guess is that this next one will be based off “merit”. In other words, it will be 20 teams, selected by their UEFA coefficients. Or 15 teams by coefficient and 5 teams by winning their smaller leagues. So many people have bought into this idea that the coefficients are meritorious – or are at least somewhat divided on the idea or don’t care – that I feel like this will be the sneaky way that this goes forward. The 15 teams this year?
- Bayern
- Real Mad
- Barcelona
- Man City
- Juventus
- Atletico Mad
- PSG
- Man U
- Liverpool
- Sevilla
- Arsenal
- Chelsea
- Borussia Dortmund
- Tottenham
- Porto
It will have all of the same deals that the Super League had: solidarity payments to the various leagues, money for a women’s league, etc. If this happens, UEFA will talk about “giving the fans what they want”, and how this is selecting teams on merit, how it protects football, and Boris Johnson will fly in on a tightrope waving the UEFA flag, cut the ribbon, and everyone will be happy. UEFA already has the broadcasters lined up and the clubs have a financial backer. Badabing-badaboom.
Or maybe none of this will happen. Maybe Barcelona and Real Madrid will play each other a bunch of times and try to squeeze a few more dollars out of their customers. Or maybe even better: we will just see Barcelona, Juventus, and Real Madrid go bankrupt. I’d love to see it. Any club that pays £100m+ for Coutinho deserves to go bankrupt and Juventus are such a dumbly run club that even I – an idiot – could see that they were building an unsustainable salary. Every time they paid another guy a million Euros a month I asked “where are they getting the money for this?” They are already paying Ronaldo 31m a year… NET. That means something like 60m a year gross. Yeah, gross.
I feel like this can’t really go away. Either that or we are going to have a lot of clubs going out of business (to be resurrected, of course).
Meanwhile, in England, Arsenal fans plan a protest today before the match with Everton. And Josh Kroenke spoke on a zoom call with fans yesterday. You can read the transcript yourself over at Football London but be warned, there are so many ads on that page that it’s actually difficult to read. The main points though:
Josh Kroenke doesn’t really seem to understand what the gripes are about. But he promises to meet more with the fans, though without giving a clear answer as to what mechanism he will use to achieve that. They have promised to invest in the squad – and we already have stories circulating that Arsenal are going to spend £100m this summer. But the key thing is that they have also warned us that they aren’t going to keep investing money into the club and they aren’t selling the club. And warned us that even if they do sell, it’s a bit of magical thinking to hope for another billionaire to come in and pump millions into the club every year.
One of his main points is that European football needs reforms. Not reforms like “lower ticket prices” or “fewer subscription services”. And especially not reforms like “not playing as many games”. Oh no, what he wants are salary caps. Here’s the thing about that though: salary caps are only beneficial to the owners. In the USA, most of the leagues have a salary cap of some sort but most also allow teams to overspend if they want and pay a “luxury tax”. The KSE clubs never even reach their caps. They get close, but Kroenke’s teams aren’t pushing the boat out to win titles. They prefer to have a few exciting players (acquired for free through the draft systems), build something of a decent team around those guys, and then whatever happens will happen. Salary caps in European football would allow them to do the same: Man City and those clubs will still outspend everyone and Arsenal will then just say “well we can’t spend because of the cap.” Caps were a big part of the Super League proposal.
He also mentioned Financial Fair Play (FFP), which I thought was funny because salary caps are just the new FFP. What salary caps do is help owners like Kroenke to control costs. And they help stabilize the growth of salaries since they make it extra expensive to give giant contracts to players. But it’s the height of irony that he complains about salaries and wants to strengthen FFP then threw his hat into the Super League with the likes of Juventus, Chelsea, Man City, Man U, Barcelona, and Real Madrid. The clubs which have done the most damage to the football pyramid through absurd salaries and transfers in my lifetime. “We want salary caps, to save football, which is why we joined forces with Juventus who are paying Cristiano Ronaldo, 60m Euros a year.”
My cynical take on all of this is that the Super League will be resurrected or given some new life via the official channels. In the meantime, Kroenke is going to try to repair the damage the way that American sport franchises always do; buying new players. My guess is that we will get Martin Odegaard or something like him this summer and because (again this is me being cynical) football fans are like crackheads when it comes to transfers, all will be temporarily forgiven. Then the club will have some meetings with fans, Josh will have a few zoom meetings, and maybe a fan representative will be appointed to the board (highly unlikely) or be allowed to attend certain meetings as an ex-officio member or something.
Maybe we get Arsenal back into Europe and the cycle will reboot. Right now, most fans are against Kroenke but if he gives them some new players fans will be divided once again. Once again we will have the familiar arguments: he’s not that bad, it could be worse, he’s “invested money” (they don’t put their own money into these things, folks, it’s all put back on the clubs), his American clubs aren’t that bad, etc. In a few years we will fall back out of Europe and we will be back here saying the same stuff all over again. The myth is that Kroenke needs us on his side, he really doesn’t: he just needs us divided enough that we don’t storm the gates or (worse) quit watching them.
This whole thing is being sold as a huge win for the fans and I’m not sure that’s the case. I think it was a bigger deal that UEFA and the FA jumped in and started talking about kicking these clubs out. Fans played some part for sure, lending support to those organizations and taking a stance against the Super League but I’ve been watching this game for 20 years and I feel like for at least 10 years the only thing they seem to care about when it comes to fans is whether we boycott games.
I have been Kroenke out for a long time and I appreciate that a lot of folks are now on board with that stance. Especially that guys like Ian Wright have risked money in appearances and whatnot to take a stand. But unless Arsenal fans are willing to take a real stand and boycott games, I hate to say it but my cynical self says that it’s never going to end, and he’s never going to leave.
The fans‘ dliemma! Can you punish the owners without punishing the club and more importantly, punishing yourself? Not a chance which is why we all keep coming back for more.
The other aspect and those familiar with the Telco and Utilities sectors will know, operators price ‘churn’ into their business model. For any ‘legacy fans’ you lose, new fans will replace them. I don’t believe boycotting will make any difference.
Looking at this from the owner’s POV, the one thing the pandemic will have shone a spotlight on is the need to be less dependent on stadium income. That’s why the carrot of a signing-on gift or improved broadcaster deals is so irresistible to any football club. It’s the definition of easy money.
It’s a personal decision but I don’t think collectively fans can do enough to force Kroenke to sell. The best solution we can hope for is for a strong, capable leader with a strategic vision to be managing the club and a buffer to absent and incompetent owners. Hang on, we forced him out….
I have an even deeper cynical layer to all this:
Fans right now are crowing about fan power and how they won a huge victory. And there’s so many people out there right now who truly believe they can force Kroenke out.
But what happens in two years when he’s still at the club?
My guess is disillusionment, resignation, acceptance. When we look back at this summer, I think it will be remembered as the moment that the rich and powerful won.
Your final para is not a popular opinion but it’s bang on the money.
I should have added…. if we were competitive in the league say performing like Leicester currently are do you think we’d be fretting about this? Our current under performance to my mind really colours perspective.
Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko in Oliver Stone:s Wall Street famous soliloquy said “Greed is good”.
What’s better is cynicism, particularly as 7 am has articulated in these posts. There is no doubt in my mind that no one, including KSE, has given up on a reorganization to rescue and eventually improve their top and bottom lines.
Despite Josh Kroenke’s posturing, KSE couldn’t give a flying f$%k about Arsenal fans. This is no different from how they felt about St. Louis Cardinals fans. They felt nothing. Zero. Nada. Nicht.
It ‘s a mistake to confuse their lack of concern for some sort of ignorance about the game or football culture. They’re plenty smart and they know plenty, hence the attempt at some sort of appeasement with the Josh Kroenke Q&A. ” Let’s grease the wheels a bit and try to calm things down before our next move.” That’s all that was.
He also fired a warning shot across the bow when Josh said there is no interest in selling (the club). In other words, we ain’t going nowhere, so suck it up, buttercup.
As Andrew as opined on Arseblog, they may not win trophies and be profitable when it comes to their clubs, but in most other ways billionaire owners get what they want and are not amused when things don’t go their way.
Rounds two and three are coming and there:s not a thing we can do about it.
We can probably put Cristiano Ronaldo wax statue for 600 dollar and perform a better job being a wall preventing FK goals nowadays.
Of course, none of this ESL stuff matters anyway because we suck. A 0-1 loss because of an OG FFS?
Ugh. This post could equally have been titled “Arsenal on Life Support”. Another howler from Leno. Nketiah never looked a danger leading the line, and Arteta didn’t put Martinelli in until late. No Balogun at all. How many losses at home this year?
Like last match, the team wasn’t completely awful. More just blah, and without a lot of threat. If Auba and/or Laca isn’t back next week, I certainly don’t fancy our chances against Villarreal.
Unless the Super League is proposed as a pan-Europe top division, where teams are promoted to and thereby remove themselves (in most cases temporarily) from their domestic leagues, it won’t go anywhere because all 300+ clubs in Europe aspire to make the climb. After the section of the inaugural 20 teams, have it so 10 get relegated back to their domestic leagues every season, 10 fresh teams and the churn will keep it exciting. Right now we need a players union because every proposal just heaps more and more games on the players and we need fewer games, then quality will go up and we won’t suffer from oversaturation of football, the two things that are guaranteed to fulfill Florentino Perez’s fear that kids aren’t interested and the game stops growing.
If it’s not a stand-alone division with fluidity of membership, it won’t happen for another 25 years.
Another great post Tim. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and opinions about the ESL.
A huge howler by Leno cost us a point. You can get a group of average players to play solid defense but you need talent to score goals consistently. Getting shut out is no surprise when the starting line up does not have a single squad player who has scored more then 12 goals in his entire career.
Been a minute Tim.
So my theory for this, and I believe this is an interesting development in football, involves making the game as expansive and international as possible.
I think this was, on the part of the owners, a first step to creating a global competition. I’m talking, like, in a few years we would see a Boca, Cerezo Osaka, or maybe a potential future juggernaut of a Chinese team playing a Borussia dortmund, Chelsea or Arsenal in a league based upon invitation/performance.
There are examples of bringing sport to where untapped markets exist and creating inclusion solely to draw more eyes. We had the Centario where teams from other regions were invited to play a pan-American tournament. A historically SOUTH AMERICAN tourney was held in the U.S.A. It was a special occasion you might say, but in truth North American, Carribean and Central American teams have been invited to participate time and again.
If you’re looking at specifially club football, we have seen teams carve out the time in their schedule to participate in the Club World Cup, traveling to distsant places mid-season with their full first team. I remember the scheduling issues Klopp had with the Fa and CWC, and Liverpool ultimately deciding to prioritize the globalized tournament and send 17 y/o kids to play the local cup. The CWC has all of 21 years of history, but it’s seen as a priority and an honor to participate in. It’s honestly a bullshit tourney where a Uefa team plays 2-3 games and collects the trophy 9/10 times.
A more ergregious of globalisation or greed, whatever you you want to call it, was the proposal about two years ago that a copa del rey final could be held in Miami. Let’s just say I live in the vicinity and the prospect of seeing Messi in a full blooded game without having to cross the Atlantic was enticing. However, fans were floored and spoke out and asked how were they going to get the cash to fly and see them. Spanish Fa downed the proposal, but not in a way that completely felt like the door was shut on the idea.
I don’t believe travel and logistics like match scheduling for leagues would slow this down. Yes, the players are only human, and this would entail some more travel. Maybe compromises would be made, especially on the part of leagues and Fifa with friendlies( I think overall there os heightened apathy toward the international game among young ppl but that’s a different conversation). Maybe, they would play in neutral places that aren’t too far from their home. This would again feed into their notion of expansion and bringing the game to where it needs to go. I think these
I believe football started to devour itself with those early 2000s Italian teams spending waybeyond their means. My team Chelsea played a big part, acquiescing to a billionare who came with a tainted reputation but knew no limit spending could help wipe thst all away. None of us did it alone though and all in pursuit of best to attract the most eyes. What we are seeing now is the natural direction it was always going to take. I think a global game is inevitable. Covid just acted as an accelerant for a process that has begun a while ago. However, it may not have been good enough of an excuse to act this brazenly and destroy the existing power structure.
Awesome insight.
i was never a “kroenke out” guy before this. i’ll admit i was embarrassed by the way the club treated david dein but i always suspected dein knew some things that we didn’t. considering kroenke’s seemingly soft-spoken demeanor, as long as he didn’t interfere with business, i didn’t care that he was the owner. he supported wenger doing what he was doing…and that was okay, until it wasn’t. we see that wenger was not only over-achieving by keeping arsenal in the champions league year after year with no money while paying off the stadium, he was also insulating the players and the staff from the club’s “good ideas”.
btw, arsenal had a game tonight. it was a home game against an everton team that has been struggling of late. arsenal found a way to boost everton’s confidence by giving them all three points; such a swell group of guys. leno got it wrong but it happens to all keepers; reminiscent of the belletti goal in the champions league final back in ’06. it’s 7 home league defeats. if not for a last gasp equalizer, arsenal would have lost at home to fulham last week as well. this has to fall on the manager. arsenal aren’t creating enough chances because his strategy isn’t good enough.
i think we all knew it was only a matter of time before xhaka got exposed at left back. arsenal had 3 fullbacks available, including 2 on the bench, but arteta plays a center mid at left back? nuts! the same goes for eddie nketiah at center forward. arteta dropped so many points earlier in the campaign trying to prove his brilliance by making eddie a star and benching lacazette. he’s nowhere near laca’s level and never will be. i don’t blame xhaka for not being a left back. i don’t blame eddie for not being a top center forward. i blame arteta for not maximizing his resources.
this is the worst arsenal team i’ve ever seen and it’s not down to a lack of talent. it’s down to bad management.
Damn Joshua! Go on!
You’re right about a great many things here.
Big +1, Joshuad.
Wenger often put too much faith in players but didn’t play his guys out of position (at least to this extent), unless forced to by injury.
Although none of them were ever going to fill Wrighty or Titi’s shoes, I had more faith in TGSTEL than I ever had in Gervinho or Sanogo. Bendtner’s wayward ways erased his potential of course but I always liked the guy.
18 goals in 17 home games says it all.
And Willock scores another against the team who handed us our asses earlier this month.