Confidence boosted

Mikel Arteta launched a surprise formation against Sheffield United yesterday, starting Xhaka at LB, Ceballos and Partey in MF, giving the #10 to Saka, and starting Pepe and Martinelli wide. He also handed starts to Pablo Mari in LCB and another starting berth at RB to Calum Chambers.

Despite their relegation form, Sheffield United showed some spirit in the first 30 minutes against Arsenal: their pressures and traps forced Arsenal into quick passes that didn’t always find their man. Against the pressure Arsenal were playing like a golfer hurrying his swing, rather than easily going through the motions. It’s also true that the Arsenal starting lineups were unfamiliar with each other and several players were playing new roles or ones which they rarely play for long stretches.

But despite the pressure and lineup shakeup, early on there were signs that Arsenal should be able to get a good result because once the pressure was broken, Sheffield United’s secondary defense turned into a disorganized mess, at times resembling the bumbleball that children play. Watching them just clump up around the ball and not know who to cover or how to lock down space makes me regret ever suggesting that Arsenal have poor defense: because as poor as I have ever seen Arsenal play, we have never been that disorganized. Well, ok, not “never”: once or twice but I prefer not to speak about those matches.

Saka was the first beneficiary as Martinelli played in a cool “through” ball for him (it doesn’t actually count as a through ball because again, they were just weirdly clumped up). Saka couldn’t quite get his foot around the ball and blasted just over Ramsdale’s goal. A few minutes later it was Martinelli who got the chance but from an acute angle and only able to ripple the side netting.

Sheffield United were able to get one good shot in the opening half when Saka turned the ball over in his own half and McGoldrick was played in for a quick turn and shot. Leno was beaten and had the shot not missed the post by a foot the competition would have been closer. But if frogs had wings, and all of that.

By the 30th minute, Arsenal started purring. Saka wasn’t playing a classic distributor #10 but his class and energy there opened things up. He chested one down and played to Martinelli who has a shot blocked. On that same attack, Ceballos made an overlapping run, Lacazette made a little burst forward and you could see that Arsenal’s shape was taking on more of a 4-1-4-1 with Partey anchoring things and dictating forward play in midfield.

Then in the 33rd minute, Arsenal scored. It was Partey who started the move that the commentators described as classic Arsenal, though truth be told it was much more a classic Wengerball goal rather than something I would consider vintage George, Emery or Arteta. Partey collected from Chambers wide, Arsenal were playing that Wengerball horseshoe, but then Partey passed to Laca, who played a quick pass to Saka (and then made his run), Saka played to Ceballos who saw the run and backheeled to Laca to score. It was the kind of goal and frankly play that we haven’t seen enough of under Arteta. Too often the Arsenal approach is wide to cross and Arsenal (I believe this is correct or at least it was correct early in the season) were or are the least productive team in that zone around the D.

I guess I can be called out for criticizing the team when they scored a near perfect goal but it’s not that goal, it’s the paucity of chances we create in those situations. But the good news is that we created one, it was a fantastic one, and could even be our goal of the season. If this is the kind of football Arteta wants us to play then I am all for it. Long may this continue.

The sencond half started much like the first, Sheffield United came out and gave Arsenal a rough time. That lasted again about 25 minutes before Arsenal were able to break the press and force Sheffield United into bumbleball. This time it was Pepe the beneficiary: collecting a terrible pass from Lundstrom, he clipped past his “marker” and took a wicked shot. Poor Aaron Ramsdale couldn’t do anything but palm the ball away and Martinelli – with the instincts of Robert Pires – was there to pounce. If we talk about the first one as “classic Arsenal” this was a “classic Arsenal Invincibles” goal: time and again, Henry would be in those same positions (opposite side), pick off those same passes, take that same type of shot, and Pires would be there, the “fox in the box” stealing the chickens.

And for the third goal, well it was a relief. Again Partey was there as the lone MFer, collected and – I’ll keep saying this until it’s no longer true, sorry if you’re going to get sick of it – looked up-field immediately to see if there was a break on or a forward pass to make. This is his greatest strength in my book. He is struggling to deal with the frenetic nature of the League and he’s taken a pretty big dip in midfield partner quality from Saul to the Arsenal midfield but no matter whether he’s having a bad day or not, he always looks for that ladder forward pass. This time it was a perfect throughball (an actual one!) to Lacazette.

Credit to Lacazette here for taking a strong shot instead of the weak dink he tried against Slavia Prague. I think Ramsdale could have done a lot better on that but Laca managed to send him the wrong way and scored with aplomb. After the goal went in you could see the relief on Lacazette’s face: strikers are confidence players, more than most I think, and his self-belief must have been shaken after that miss on Thursday. But his scream and smile were pure unburdenment.

Arsenal’s expected points to finish out the season were just 14 going in to this game, but I have 18 expected points for them and others feel like they should even get 21. My only goal for this season is for Arsenal to finish above that miserable munchkin, Jose Mourinho. He’s the kind of guy who measures himself by how many trophies a manager has won so it would kill him if Arteta could get an FA Cup, Charity Shield, and finish above him in his first full season.

I know we still have Europa League to play for and I think we have a decent chance to win that competition. The big trouble left in this competition are Man U, Ajax, and Unai Emery’s Villarreal. But first we need a win or a 2 goal draw in Prague to see which team we face in the semi-finals. So, one step at a time (sweet Jesus).

The win here will hopefully boost our confidence going into next week’s fixtures. It certainly helped Lacazette.

One caution, however. Last Sunday I hit an 84 on a very tough course. It was a great day full of good golf swings. I was in such a good mood that going into yesterday’s round I think I may have been overconfident. But sport sometimes punishes the irrationally egotistical, and from the start I was spraying balls all over the course. It was brutal.

I joked with my golf-partner at the start of the round that my goal was 94 but I don’t think I took it too seriously. On the practice range, I was hitting good shots, my chips were dialed in, and my putts were good enough. I think I was way too confident going into that round. It took me until a par 3, 100 yards, before I realized what I was doing wrong: I picked up an 8 iron (way too much club) and hit what I call my “warmup shot”. It’s the shot I use on the driving range to get warmed up – 100 yard 8 iron, easy, smooth, and usually exactly on the button. Sure enough, I hit it pin high with a real chance at birdie. I got par but from that hole on, I let go of my ego, tried to swing more smoothly and stopped thinking I was hitting long. I finished the round with a much better score that I would have if I’d kept up with my overconfident, egotistical, self.

I realized what I was doing wrong (to some extent) was just playing like I was owed an 84, like my shots were all going to be good. I was getting sloppy, handsy, and (far more important than swing mechanics) I was trying shots which I wasn’t trying the week before: several times I got into jail and instead of just chipping into the fairway and taking my one-shot penalty, I tried an outrageous shot and penalized myself even further by hitting a tree. That should have been the big clue right there: last week, I always punched out, this week I always tried the extravagant. But I didn’t learn despite the first three holes warning me. And the mental mistakes continued all the way through to the 15th hole: when I got close it was my chips which killed me, I lost count of how many times I two-chipped, then two-putted. My mental space was clouded, I was trying 13 different things all at the same time, and all while carrying around an ego the size of King Kong. It was poison and despite my pretty good closing few holes, I shot 104.

That’s a no-no, folks. Confidence is good, irrational ego is bad. Slavia Prague are not going to give up easily. Arsenal need to play our game, fight for every loose ball, and do the little things right, especially when they’re in trouble. Which will happen.

Qq

14 comments

  1. I thought Xhaka did Ok at left back. It looked like he was instructed not to go over the half way line, which was fair enough. If nothing else he has a sweet left foot, so can dink lofted passes down the line all day long. His biggest weakness is “turning” with the ball, which he does incredibly slowly. The thing about playing full back is that you rarely have to do that, unlike midfield.
    The downside to this adjustment was that Danny Onions moved over to left midfield for most of the match. His endless desire to only use his right foot meant that he did a passable impersonation of a spinning top and an incredible desire to carry the ball sideways. A disaster, which almost offset the gains from having a left footed left back.
    In fairness it was a nice touch for the goal, however. I still wouldn’t mind seeing MO playing in that left midfield slot. Saka looked very much the part as a number 10 instead. He got to see a lot more of the ball than usual. That kid can play almost anywhere it seems.

  2. “So, one step at a time (sweet Jesus)”

    LOL, sweet, baby Jesus indeed…

  3. Well done once again, Tim. Golf is just like Arsenal – the problem is when you have expectations. The golf gods never look kindly on hubris.

    I am really struggling to contextualize the win yesterday. How much was Sheffield’s abysmal form and how much was our tactics/play responsible? There were several times when I thought to myself that our loose passes would have been punished more harshly against better opponents. Pepe in particular has been absolutely maddening for me. Very simple, routine passes that are so stupidly misplayed make me think he’ll never amount to anything. Then he makes some deliciously skillful run and I think, “Where has that been?”

    I also wonder if the same kind of lineup against Prague would still work. Can Xhaka continue to play LB for the remainder of the season? Does having Dani forward compensate for the loss of attack when Tierney is gone? Who will be CF? Left wing? Will we have anyone healthy to play #10?

    I approach Thursday with great humility, as the soccer gods can be equally punitive as the golf gods. (But secretly hoping Arteta fields a much more aggressive lineup!)

    1. I also noticed that Pepe’s teammates often passed to him in places where he wasn’t and he’d have to make a stretch to collect. It was very odd.

  4. Sheffield United mostly played like a team already resigned to going down. So not sure they are a great barometer for where we are. If they were playing hard, I suspect they’d be at least at the level of Slavia Prague. But mostly they weren’t there on Sunday.
    That said, Arsenal can only beat the team in front of them, and they did that, pretty handily. And showed a higher level of investment and effort. So I was pleased to see that.
    Crossing my fingers that a few players make it back to full health on Thursday.

  5. It’s going to be tough given the injuries: Saka most likely out with the thigh/quad thing, Martinelli and Smith-Rowe both with an ankle knock, Tierney and Luiz gone for the season, Odegaard in bad shape and Aubameyang with the flu. I hear the Tea Lady refuses to suit up because the club is out of Earl Grey, her favorite.

    If we pull this off, it will be no mean feat. Assuming the names in question are healthy enough to start, I think we’re looking at:
    Leno; Chambers, Holding, Mari, Cedric; Partey, Xhaka; Pepe, Willian (if Saka is a no-go, also Willian when Saka is subbed), Lacazette; Aubameyang. 4-2-3-1 or even 4-5-1.

    1. If abua actually has the flu (influenza virus), which seems incredibly unlikely since there have been zero reported cases of influenza in the UK this year, he won’t be playing for at least a week.

      1. Good point. Flu counts are down everywhere largely due to Covid measures, but maybe it’s a why-did-I-tie-myself=down-to-a-long-term-contract-here-because-I’m-never-going-to-play-in-the-CL-with-this-team flu. It’s a real thing, look it up.

  6. Great post Tim

    We regularly play well and put in good performances and usually get results against teams in the bottom half of the table and since Christmas we have done reasonably well against some of the teams in the top half of the table. That suggests to me whatever issues we have are probably not related to a poor team set up or poor preparation or bad tactics.

    We debated the wisdom of starting Laca after the first match against Prague but I think its clear why Arteta used him despite his relative lack of pace. He has been our best scorer this season and it would be a huge case or overthinking tactics if any manager left his top scorer on the bench for an important game. I don’t think it ever makes sense to drop the teams top scorer for tactical reasons. I would be very surprised if Laca is not starting again this Thursday.

    1. Oh he will start because Auba has “the flu”.

      And we will be slow on the counter again.

      1. I’m trying my best to believe that we’re not going to end up with another Ozil situation and repeated illnesses and back “issues”.

  7. not sure how much confidence was boosted but it was a good win on sunday.

    whenever i struggle with any endeavor, i always go back to basics. i kinda understand your approach to golf; focus on doing the little things well.

    i don’t remember a debate about whether lacazette should have been dropped for the upcoming slavia prague match. the reality is that he’s arsenal’s best option in the #9 position. sure, he missed the break away but that’s called being human, not being poor; you don’t drop your best center forward because he had a human moment. i doubt he’ll miss another chance like that for the rest of his time at arsenal. if he missed them all the time, concerns would be warranted. laca is clinical.

    as for the slow counters, the primary problem was arteta had midfielders playing striker last thursday. if arsenal plays this thursday with the same front 3 that started on sunday, they’ll have plenty of speed for counters. what laca tends to do is to drop into midfield like a false nine. this gives arsenal a numerical advantage in midfield. if a central defender follows laca into midfield, it makes space for one of the strikers to make a run ahead of laca and into the space the defender has abandoned. willian, a traditional winger, is almost never going to make that run. however, the likes of martinelli, pepe, and aubameyang will…because, unlike willian, they’re strikers who want to get on the ball behind defenses.

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