I wanted to give some follow-up thoughts on the Liverpool game, Arsenal’s playing style, pressing, and what went wrong against Liverpool.
On Saturday, Arsenal attempted 183 pressures against Liverpool. That was the most attempted pressures by Arsenal in any game this season. That number is still well shy of the top number of pressures attempted in a game by Arsenal last season (278, Man U) and is exactly half of the most pressures applied by Arsenal in a match in 2018/19 season (366, Chelsea). And to be clear, Arsenal have never been a high pressure side, I mean that both in terms of number of pressures and also in terms of where Arsenal press. In 2018/19 Arsenal were 17th in overall pressures and unlike the top teams, also 10th in high pressures. And in 2019/20 we pressed high even less, 7th fewest in the League.
Pressures are down across the League, possibly an effect of the compressed schedule due to the fallout from the novel coronavirus. However, while overall pressure numbers have dropped, high pressing number have remained fairly consistent: Liverpool press high 42.3 times per game this season, 47.3 last season, and 44.6 in 2018/19. Arsenal also have remarkably consistent high pressure numbers: 31.6, 32.1, and 34.2 going back three seasons.
Arsenal are also remarkably consistent in another area: our opponents LOVE to press us high. in 2018/19 Arsenal were the most high pressed side in the League, drawing 46 per game. In 2019/20 Arsenal were 3rd highest, drawing 44.2 per game. And this season Arsenal are 2nd, drawing 36.5 per game. Meanwhile Liverpool and Man City are among the teams which draw the least high pressure, down at the bottom of the table with teams who play kick and rush/low-block football (West Ham, West Brom, Sheffield, and Burnley).
Liverpool and Man City achieve this because their opponents tend to sit deep and defend. Even when teams do attempt to press high against City and Liverpool, they don’t get much success: City have won all 7 of the games where opposition pressed high 36 times or more; Liverpool won 5 and lost 2 (Villa and Everton). Very similar story in the previous two seasons. In other words, as much as you and I might want to see teams try to press Liverpool and City high, they have the players to break those presses. Arsenal, on the other hand, do not. When the opposition press Arsenal high 57 times or more in a match, Arsenal have won 0, drawn 3, and lost 3. Last season was slightly better: when the opponents pressed Arsenal high 57 times or more, Arsenal won 3, drew 2, and lost 3. And under Emery the record was slightly better: Arsenal won 6, drew 1, but lost 5.
The point is that Arsenal can’t handle the high press.
As a fan of the team, I know this because I watch them twice a week. What’s odd is that most of the other teams in the League haven’t figured this out yet. Sean Dyche has: Burnley applied 81 high pressures against Arsenal in their 1-1 draw and put up an impressive 1.5 xG against us – that was the 9th highest expected goals against Arsenal this season. I’m not sure other teams will emulate that, however, because Arsenal also put up 2.3 xG against Burnley. But if a manager wants to have a go and just let the game be sort of wide open, we might see more high pressures against Arsenal.
The other thing that happened in the Liverpool match is that Arsenal’s pressures success rate was atrocious, just 22.4%. We don’t press much but when we have a success rate below 25% we have won just 2 games, drawn 2, and lost 6. I believe what’s happening here is that when Arsenal press, because our press is sort of “not great” in that it’s very disorganized, players get past us and we struggle to recover. That idea also shows up in the “dribbled past us” data, where Arsenal’s record against teams which break our v. dribbles tackles is pretty poor. When teams get 10 or more dribbles past a defender, Arsenal have won 5, drawn 2, and lost 8. And when teams have 3 or more shot creating actions off a dribble Arsenal’s record is 1 win (Rapid Vienna), 2 draws, and 4 losses. By the way, those matches aren’t just against “top teams”: we are talking about Wolverhampton, Villa, Liverpool, Rapid Wien, Southampton, Wolves (again), and Benfica.
All of this has me worried about Arsenal. I do see some improvement since December but it feels like it’s a case of 2 steps forward, 3 steps back. In fact the 10-match expected goals difference chart shows a steep slump in the last 10 games. Those matches are against slightly more difficult opponents but then if you say that, you have to also say that the brief rise in the chart were against somewhat easier opponents. So, that was also a mirage in a sense.
These last few years have been frustrating for an Arsenal fan. But what I’d at least like to see from the team is a cohesive attack and defense plan. I don’t know if I can say that I see either. I guess there’s something in the attack but that came only after Arteta decided to play with a number 10. As for the defense, it’s woeful. I don’t see us controlling possession when we have the ball, I don’t see us counter-pressing to win the ball back, and I don’t see us really proactively doing much defensively. Arteta’s only recognizable defensive setup is collapsing into the low block. It’s ugly, bad team football.
I know what our record is, and I know that we are supposedly better “since Boxing Day” but Understat has us as the 9th “best” team in terms of expected goals against since Boxing Day. That’s what happens when you play low-block football and matches my eye test.
I know that folks say “we don’t have the personnel to implement a different style” and there’s some truth to that. But Kroenke isn’t going to dip into his pocket to sell off half the team and buy new players. That means we need to have a coach who can get the best out of the guys he has at his disposal and I struggle to say that Arteta is doing that. If this were a normal club, I think we’d be talking about firing Mikel Arteta. But Arsenal aren’t going to fire him because we don’t have the money to bring in another new manager who would want all new players as well. I believe he’s only got one year left on his current deal so I would bet that he will be with us for the duration of his contract. Unless something catastrophic starts happening – like Arsenal look like relegation candidates again, or he loses the confidence of Auba and any other big paycheck players.
I think we are in for a long 18 months.
All very well said.
Coaching 101 is make the best of the players & squad you have. I see no signs that Arteta has that ability. He was effectively forced into his most effective stretch, by playing ESR… and ESR, Sala and (perhaps!) MO are good enough that they can overcome Arteta’s limitations.
His selections have been entirely too frustrating — persisting with Auba out wide, starting the incredibly limited Laca, persisting with Willian (signing Willian!!).
But where does an Arsenal supporter turn for hope? Edu? Completely unproven, and what he’s done is hardly to be recommended. Tierney looks a keeper. Partey looks… okay, maybe? He certainly hasn’t looked worth the expenditure, he’s already past his prime, and Atleti certainly don’t seem to miss him at all.
This club needs to be finding the young talent in the mold of Dortmund, the Red Bull clubs, Monchi’s Sevilla, or Luis Campos.
We need a coach who is not learning on his first job. My god, we’re about to finish way behind a Brendan Rodger’s club on a shoestring budget for the second consecutive season.
To play out from the back well, or to press well, you need to have a group of players that both have that skillset, and have played a fair number of matches in that system(not just practiced). We don’t really have either. Maybe if everyone was healthy we’re close to having the right players to press. Not sure we have the defenders to play out from the back. And we certainly haven’t had any kind of settled lineup.
I’m also definitely not sold on the transfer policy. Some of the work to get rid of players this winter was good. Tierney is great if he can stay healthy. And bringing in Odegaard, even just on loan, was good. Beyond that, I’m struggling to find many incoming or contract decisions that have been good. Even Partey. He was one of the few players to come out of the first half with much credit. But the second wasn’t good. And that’s been the case in more than one match.
As much as Luiz might help with team morale, and be a calming defensive presence most of the time, we’d be pretty nuts to give a player of his age a new contract right after an injury. Maybe if he was a long time Arsenal legend. But he’s not. And sadly, I won’t be particularly surprised if we do it.
Usually after a humbling and dreadful performance there would be a huge amount of comments. Unfortunately we’ve reached the point where people fans are past caring. It’s the same across other Arsenal fan sites.
The club took a gamble on a rookie and former player hoping he had Pep’s magic dust. I don’t blame them for that. They’ve backed him heavily in the transfer market (I actually think Edu deserves more credit for moving on dead wood, arranging loans and bringing in MO). He’s also been given assurances by the club that he’ll be given time to work.
In return there are are reasonable expectations of what Arteta should have achieved by now. I’ll list a couple of things as they’re illustrative of what’s holding the team back:
– A defined style of play
– A clear first choice back four
The ‘Pool game was worse than peak Emery. Arteta reverted to type and went ultra conservative. Not only did it fail as a game plan, it’s clear the players didn’t buy into it nor his control freakery (Gunnerblog tweated the instructions he over heard Arteta barking at the players). If he loses the dressing room it will be his own fault.
But I’ll end on two positives. A) We’re Arsenal and I think most managers would take the job at the drop of a hat. B) A couple of months ago I thought we had zero chance of winning the EL. Now Leicester and Spvrs are out we have a strong chance of making the final. Winning the EL wouldn’t change my opinion but it will be a huge positive in a desperately poor season and CL qualification would be a massive boost to fund player transition.
Spot on
I think Partey has been a little over excited in his play, sometimes forcing the ball forward inaccurately, and quite a few instances this season of rash challenges close to our box leading to dangerous free kicks, usually at dangerous times. What I see is a player who genuinely believes he can single handedly solve arsenals midfield issues (🤣), but also constantly puts pressure on himself to display it. Looking past the fact they are different players, I think his season has been almost an exact mirror image of Thiago’s season at liverpool, on and off the pitch. New team, expected to boss midfield, genuinley has the ability to do so along with the self belief and character not to blame failings on others, also giving away ridiculous challenges and passing in a way that seems to be asynchronous to the team in terms of forward passing. Untimely injuries to boot. The thing is, I like the kind of mistakes both of these players are making. It took how long for elneny to start attempting tackles and forward passes?? At least a few years and a loan in turkey. These two will have heard about the speed and physicality of the premier league and how its different and I think they are over reacting to appeal to their new fans. They arent diving out of challenges or only making the safest decision on the ball and they have new countries teamates, systems and cultures to get used to….all while expecting perfection from themselves.
Gabriel can’t pass, his weight and timing of pass are both atrocious, so teams can allow him the ball and close in. He is basically useless when we are in possesion, and against big teams, who press, hes a liability. His defensive instincts are clearly better than mustafi so he will never look out of position or recieve the same type of hate from our fans but we need to get rid of him. Hes a mourinho CB not an Arsenal one. Same with Yerry mina at Everton. Looks the part. Never good enough on the ball. Fact is the keeper is a better passer in both instances, and i dont rate the passing of leno or pickford that highly.
I dont think aubameyang respects arteta as a man. Willian got the ‘everything in house’ treatment for a widely publicised misdemeanour at the height of the epidemic then got straight back in the team while performing badly the whole time. Auba was late and arteta made a point of letting everyone know and hanging him out to dry as captain in the derby🤣. Arteta bet the clubs coffers on two players both of whom he sees playing on the left of attack, are past their peaks, and have no resale potential let alone value.
Ceballos…..
Lacazette….
Elneny…..
I am sorry guys but I don’t agree that Arsenal as a team does not have the players to play pressing or proper build up play. I say this because…
1. Pressing
What a lot of us are not noticing is that this Arsenal side is filled with players who have not been here for more than three seasons, and Arsene has been gone for more than three seasons and we only have 6 players who remain from his time in this squad, not counting those on loan or those Mikel does not use, but I am including Chambers, Elneny and Eddie, whom Arsene never really used.
What we do have is a really refreshed squad that has been in the hands of two very conservative managers, and everyone does not seem to look into what these many players where doing before they played for Arsenal. What type of teams did they play in?
The side that was put out on against Liverpool had for example, Aubameyang, who played for Dortmund under two different coaches who routinely utilise pressing, and different pressing too. Klopp has his high intensity, rock and roll football where pressing is frantic but still has some shape and direction. Auba played a bit there. Tuchel is more influenced by positional play that is used by Pep where the positioning and direction of the press slowly starts to reduce the pitch until it gets frenetic the more meters reduced get. Auba played A LOT!
The entire midfield consisted of players who thrived under pressing conditions. Ceballos at Betis under Pepe Mel and Gustavo Poyet was a pressing machine. Martin Ødegaard did well at Real Sociedad under Imanol Alguacil. Thomas Partey’s Atletico Madrid is sometimes unfairly judged to be an ultra defensive side that just sits back and absorbs pressure then hits on the counter, this is false. Diego Simeone’s side are one of the most intelligent pressing sides in Europe and regularly do so in their many league games. They sit back against sides that they know have better players. Which in La Liga where they faced two of the greatest sides to play the game, it was justified.
Alongside these players is players like Alex Lacazette who has never really been found wanting when the team has decided to press and players like Emile, Martinelli, Reiss, Eddie and Saka are fresh enough to learn.
The defence, which is far less consequential to the press except to position well and push up, is filled with players that are capable of defending on the front foot in the fullback areas, I would say that is their biggest strength because they are not good on the back foot. All of our fullbacks are marauders and can help push pressure outward on inward through aggressive positioning. As for the centerbacks, I will just say that Liverpool came with Ozan Kabak (newbie in the league and more a Mustafi than anything else, which isn’t bad without the mistakes) and…. uuhhhm….. whoever the hell a Phillips is.
We have a squad of majority players who have thrived in pressing sides, we are just a team that is not instructed, and I fear neither coached, to press and play on the front foot.
But once a player puts on that Arsenal shirt, we sometimes put the same shortcomings that we have seen of players who wore that shirt on them, without looking at what this player did before they came to the club and what sort of role they performed in whatever particular style the team played.
2. Build up and breaking a press
I actually like the structure to how we build up and how we are able to get the ball into midfield regularly. The are just a few structural issues that I see, which might also carry into personnel issues.
What we had under Arsene during the first few years of the Emirates era was what Liverpool and City have now. Arsene set his team out to give opponents a choice, or better yet, to gauge their bravery on how much risk they were willing to take. Arsene’s Arsenal where never really a team that had a structured way of playing out. Arsene would set the team up in such a way that he stretched the pitch vertically instead of horizontally. This asked the opposition to pick whether they were going to press us high where we had spread to and left a few players at he back, or stay with the players we pushed up and wait for the ball to get into their final third.
If they chose to press high, we had players that were comfortable with playing passing combinations to get out of tight spaces, and since pressing wasn’t as intense as now, we would pass around the 2 or 3 man press with ease and exploit whatever spaces they left behind. If they pressed with even more people or up to the goalkeeper, we had Sagna as an amazingly effective long pass outlet to get the ball in higher positions where we would have space and the numbers (pace too) to exploit that space. City and Liverpool are the same but they have better passing out structure, and it shows with the options available to the man in possession, but most importantly, City has a goalkeeper that can play that long ball outlet, and effectively so. That allows them to exploit any space in behind with their pacey and tricky forwards. Liverpool on the other hand use Van Dijk to play that long ball outlet, mostly to Salah who is incredible with his touch and how he attacks the opposition. These teams actually prefer this to be their opponents preferred method of defending because it makes for more space for their dangerous players to exploit, and is the initial reason why playing out from the back was created. Draw them in, exploit behind.
If they chose to stay with the men Arsene’s Arsenal left upfront, it was then a clear path towards the opposition half where Arsenal would then have to find ways to move the team around until a gap appears. Thus the Low blocks against Arsenal were a fairly common thing as it is now for Liverpool and City.
Now, I know most think we do have personnel issues, especially in midfield, but I don’t think so. Tim, you do realise our midfield three against Liverpool are some of the best press breakers La Liga has seen in the past 5 years? How effective breaking a press is, is also dependent on the options after breaking said press too, what’s available after the dribble, what pass option is available after receiving on the turn and to tell the truth, the structure does not support this. The effectiveness of Santi was that he had options, that also had other options, after he beat players. He was able to find players in between the lines, square of him or running in behind, and those players then had options as well. i call it the “NEXT OPTION” (not creative I know). Against Liverpool we had players holding shape and yet expecting to break a press which is built to take advantage of rigid structures. What was supposed to happen after Auba got the ball? or Pepe? or Laca?
I use this example a lot, but Alexis stunner in the FA Cup final against Villa is an example of a structure that not only accommodates the strengths of a player, but also reduces the work that the player has to do with their strength. Nacho Monreal saw Alexis receiving the ball, and sprinted as hard as he could to drag one of the defenders Alexis was facing. Alexis can beat a man, sometimes even two, but in reducing the obstacles for him, Nacho allowed Alexis (who is notorious for losing the ball) to go from a difficult but doable situation to one that was almost a guarantee for him. Nacho’s runs where always based on what was happening instead of predetermined for him, he was intelligent and was allowed to use that intelligence to offer an option or a distraction for his teammates. The goal he scored in 17/18 against Swansea from Ozil’s pass was him scanning the pitch for how he could exploit the opposition shape or make an option for a teammate and he did with that run.
We do not have structures in place that allow for that teammates to make decisions like that. Watching Auba and Pepe hug the touchline made me realise that what Saka and Smith-Rowe are doing is not from instruction, its from instinct and their abilities as footballers. It also makes the deep midfielders more comfortable when you have players who are constantly trying to drag defenders away, exploit spaces and offer safe options, because a lot of the time, Players do not pass to a player who does not have a “NEXT OPTION”. it is like passing to an isolated teammate, makes no sense.
So for me, instead of focusing on the payers receiving the ball and having to break a press, I was looking at what was the next pass from there and how it would put Liverpool in danger and truthfully, I did not see anything that would have put a hesitation in Liverpool’s press. All we had was a static front three, static midfield and static fullbacks who even if we played long wouldn’t have been a threat, not because they are unable to (Pepe was a killer in behind for Lille), but because they have no viable “NEXT OPTION” to not only threaten, but to make it easier for our player, like how Nacho did for Sanchez.
Forgot to mention that a footballer should always be aware of 4 things at every moment of the game, in or out of possession, to make the right decisions and to make the game easier for themselves and for their teammates.
1.The position of the ball
2. His teammates
3. The opponents
4. The space
In Liverpool, a players like Firmino, Fabinho, Thiago, Wijnaldum, Mane, Milner and Robertson are excellent examples of players who have perfected this state of mind.
Man City have Ederson, Dias, Gündoğan, Fernandinho, Rodri, Kevin (at times), Zinchenko and Jesus.
Arsene used to fill his side with players like these. Constantly thinking, constantly plotting, constantly trying to be an effective part of how the team plays, with or without the ball, at every moment of the game. The thing is that for Arsenal, these types of players go to their national sides and embody the same qualities shown by their Liverpool and City counterparts.
These are not put your head down and play type of players. These players are never really caught out of position, they cover and exploit spaces well. They are always an option for a pass (or to misdirect/distract the opponent) and they make sure that the opposition knows this (shouting or position yourself in obvious areas). They make opposition players hesitate to rush to their teammates who are in possession, they buy time and space for them.
Most of this is football intelligence, but it is capable of being applied to this level by the effectiveness of the structures that these players play within. Without a proper structure, we will not see the best of any of these type of Arsenal players, which I feel we do not know yet. We will only know them when they are used in a coherent and stable setup.
*And for anyone who thinks we cant start until Arteta has his players, Pepe and Klopp started from the off with their system and their squads resemble nothing like what they started with.
Enjoyed reading your posts Devlin. A question for you. Compared to three years ago do you think we are now a technically inferior side (as in we have less technically able players)?
Well Matt, I am a bit frustrated at the fact that we might not know.
Before Bournemouth came into the league, my answer would have been a resounding yes. But just like with Leeds, the level of the technical abilities of players has to be pushed to its limits for us to know their level.
Also, its hard to judge for me because players bring different technical abilities to the table. An example would be Pepe, is he technical or not not? He is probably the most skillful, the best at beating a man and an excellent striker of the ball. He has amazing technique and so does the much maligned Ceballos (in his awkward way). At the same time, I wouldn’t call Aaron Ramsey technical, or at least technically excellent.
What I do see though is a lack of playmaking, in midfield and in forward areas. The ability to decide what you are going to do on the ball and do it. The reason I also do not believe that such can be fixed or will be fixed is Mikel Arteta. Playmaking requires a player to make decisions on the pitch that are dictated to by game state. A playmaker does what the game needs and they dictate it towards the direction that is most suitable to exploit, and if they cant do that through simple means, they then get creative and we start to see outside of the foot passes, insane half-turns, flicks, racking passes, dribbling, and etc…
People like Jack Wilshere at a younger age would drive/dribble when the game needed it, would pass to the most appropriate options and support where support was needed. Someone like Thomas Rosicky would find pockets or holes to exploit and would attack those spaces with glorious fury and crazy play (I love that guy). Thinking of players like Santi, Ozil, Mikhitaryan, and even Ramsey to a certain extent, rigid systems where their next move was dictated to by management would have had them looking lesser than, less sure and just plainly not confident enough to do what they did. I definitely know that “beat 4 guys and drive out of our own half” is not a tactic any coach gives, not even to Santi. That comes from what he sees and what he would like to doo to get us forward, playmaking. rigidity would have taken away their biggest asset and toned down their technical exploits..
Can you imagine how useless an Ozil is when he has been told what passes to play, where to receive the ball towards or what positions to take? Completely useless and at all showing what he is capable of technically.
What we have is a squad of players (outside of the youth for some reason) that play to instruction. when your pass is already predetermined for you, your ways of receiving reduce, in the same way that a completely one footed player has less room to receive into than the space an ambidextrous player has.
My thoughts? I watched a struggling Leeds side that was very much a midtable championship team at best do the unimaginable. All of a sudden, with midtable championship calibre players, they played fast and flowing football, which requires a high technical level.
Lesson? We wont find out how fast you are from how fast you jog, we need to see you sprint. In football, we have to see you play to a level that asks for a high level of technical ability to find out and sadly for three years, we have only asked our players to jog.
You raise some interesting points, not least that it’s very difficult to assess in the current system. I should have framed my question more specifically; but you have reached the same conclusion regardless – namely that we have less play-making creativity. It is interesting that the kids seem less inhibited by the coach’s instructions. I can only assume they’ve been taught to express themselves in the junior ranks and have continued with that mindset when promoted to the first team.
Tomorrow’s game will be interesting as Slavia play very similarly to Bielsa ‘s Leeds. They play with high energy and physicality and man mark, particularly the creative opposition players. We played one of our best games of the season against Leeds so I’m intrigued to see if we play a high tempo pass and move game which worked so well.
Appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts.
Great post Tim. Thanks again
To reply to your comment from yesterday. Liverpool might target the most vulnerable player or make. There are only so many tweaks you can make and there is plenty of film on Liverpool. It certain seems like any manager who plays against them would know for the most part whats coming. I would say the same thing is true for Pep’s team. The problem is that when you have superior talent there is not much you can do.
Josh
Yesterday you said you can think of 5 or 6 things that a manager could do to counteract Liverpool’s pressing. However, Liverpool has been one of Europe’s most successful teams the last 2 seasons and there are dozens a dozens of professional managers around the world who have full staffs of assistant coaches and professional scouts and they have not been able to find a strategy that consistently can beat Liveripool. Are all of those managers and their teams really tactically inept? That makes no sense whatsoever.
i haven’t declared anyone inept, bill. likewise, i prefaced my comment by saying that, as a coach, i employ a strategy very similar to klopp’s so i have experience; that’s experience watching my team’s struggle as well as klopp’s dortmund/liverpool teams struggle over the past decade.
because i do something very similar to what klopp does, i have a vested interest in know what hurts our approach. this is the difference between myself and the many coaches you speak of. they have many teams to worry about, including their own. that experience is how i well know what hurts my approach and what hurts klopp’s.
however, the one thing these smart coaches and most village idiots know is that you have to attack liverpool’s weakness, which is their defense. real madrid is doing it to good affect just 3 days after the impotent arsenal performance we witnessed this weekend.
Tim. With regard to your conclusions from today’s post, I would point to the squad you accurately profiled in yesterday’s post. That is a mid table squad with mid table talent. We were missing arguably our most consistent player this season and a couple of other regular players. Liverpool has been one of the better teams in Europe and if they play well are expected to easily beat a mid table team which is missing several players. Good teams win because they are able to prevent the opposition from executing their game and they have made plenty of teams who have a set way to play and a game plan look bad.
As fans I think we tend to over react about runs of good form and bad form and we over react about one good or one bad game. Just a couple weeks ago we talked about how we understood why Arteta was doing what he was doing and he needs time and some squad rebuilding and that does not suddenly change after a couple games
lol! Bill, never change!
It’s a combination of things, man. The coach is also to blame/can help. It’s the coach’s job to maximize the qualities of his players. You have a lot of guys in this forum who are coaches and we have a lot of books written about coaching which shows how important a coach can be to both the detriment and a benefit.
Arteta inherited a poor-ish squad but he also went out and got players he wanted, like Willian, Luiz, Odegaard, Partey, and Soares. I mean, we are also paying Auba 20m a year and he’s probably one of the best strikers in football right now.
Should we be a title contender? Probably not. Should we be in the hunt for top four? Probably a stretch. Should we be in the top 6 with this squad? I think so. Where Arteta gets things wrong are in a number of places: I’m not a fan of block/zonal defending however, like you point out I wrote about how I understand why he does it (because Xhaka is a cart-horse, mainly), Where I think he gets things pretty wrong is trying to play Lacazette as a CF against Liverpool, and playing Auba on the left where he ends up being a fullback for most of the game, he also doesn’t adjust the game plan. Of course we aren’t supposed to topple the world champs (people forget that Liverpool are still technically the champs) but we should be giving them a good game and I expect our manager to optimize the players at his disposal. I think Arteta doesn’t do that: he actually seems more intent on fitting players into his system rather than creating a system which fits the players.
As for your last bit about fickle fans, sure that happens. But also look at the roller-coaster of a season we’ve had under this coach. We were almost literally relegation candidates early on, then had a few weeks where we started climbing a bit, then he suddenly starts playing a pressing #10 and we have a huge uptick in form _ which also coincides with a run of games against “lower” teams _ and then we collapse when faced with similar-to-better opposition. I hardly think I’m alone feeling like this season has been a mess and my writing typically reflects the season.
Interesting that Neville, Carragher, Ferdinand and Michael Thomas all went straight for the players. Neville especially said the front 6 apart from Odegaard looked like they are no longer interested.
I’m sure Arteta made some tactical mistakes but my sympathies have generally been with him rather than the players.
Those stats going around about Saka and ESR are crazy. 2.2 points per game and 70% win rate with those two players in the team. 1 point per game and 25% win rate without them. It’s night and day. If it’s all about Arteta’s limitations or failings, then why is it that when Saka and ESR play we suddenly look a different team? It’s the same manager, same structure, same system, same tactics, same guy giving the same instructions.
Either some players aren’t good enough, or they can’t do what they are being asked to do, or they don’t get it, or they don’t want to, or they’re not giving 100%. Arteta’s given them a structure, given them a way to play, they just can’t execute it.
Partey can’t carry the midfield on his own and Ceballos gave him nothing. Auba is more and more of a passenger. Pepe’s running out of time. Willian hasn’t got going. Laca looks mentally and physically exhausted. It shouldn’t matter if these players are played on the right or the left or down the centre, they should be good enough without a couple of kids playing alongside them.
And this isn’t Arteta’s squad yet. He’s only bought two first-team players in their prime – Partey and Gabriel. He’s cleared out 4 first-teamers who weren’t up to scratch, he’s sent out 4 more squad players on loan. He had to find stop-gap quality and experience in Willian and Luiz, he’s shored up the depth in defence with value-for-money in Mari and Soares. Older players, free transfers and two RM loanees in midfield, and he’ll have to replace Laca, Bellerin and Ceballos at a minimum in the summer. I’m pretty certain this is not what he wants the squad to look like, and the other day Devlin highlighted the patchy nature of Arsenal’s recruitment that he inherited.
Any comparison to what Klopp inherited at Liverpool or Pep at City just accentuates how much of a mess Arsenal was/is.
Look, it might well be that Arteta’s not very good, that the next 18 months will be grim and he will ultimately fail. But it’s a massive ask for him to change an entire culture of complacency and lack of direction at a club, and because he actually named that problem, called it out and took concrete steps to tackle it, I have more faith in him than I do in the senior players at the moment.
Since Christmas we have overall played pretty well. We just went thru a run of games against mostly top half of the table teams and done pretty well. We won against Leicester and Spurs and drew against West Ham and ManU. Anyone who expects us to look good and/or get a result against Man City or Liverpool when they play well is not realistic. A bad performance and result against Liverpool doesnot erase what we have done. 6 or the last 8 games are against bottom half of the table teams and I expect we will take enough points to finish somewhere around 8th place. We have looked good in our Europa league games and we are favorites to move deeper in that tournament. If you look at the analysis of the squad from yesterdays post then it seems pretty clear to me that we can’t are right where we belong.
Greg. I like your analysis. It is reasonable. Most fans are not reasonable almost by definition. Bill makes his usual positive points as well. I will buy into both. The alternative is just too depressing.
It may be that Arteta will fail as a coach, I hope not, I like his attitude and demeanour. I find the wisely stated view that ‘he was all that we could afford’ an odd one. A few millions are neither here nor there for even a lowly Premier club. Has Ancelotti broken the bank at Everton? We are not a poor club.
However, investment on the level required for Arteta to build a team in his image looks beyond us. Whither then?
There is no shame in losing to a very good side like Liverpool – if we show up and play. Capitulating, rolling over, being AWOL – pick one – is always difficult to swallow. We only have eight league matches left and we look so far from being anywhere near top 4.
+1
devlin, i loved your posts. pressing is, indeed, a strategic ploy. that has to come from management, not the players. management needs to inform the players what to do as a team and why. players need to know the intent of the strategy so that they can make sound decisions when difficult situations arise that weren’t covered in the walk-thru.
breaking a press requires sound principles of play being executed. it’s more of a tactical skill than technical. a player relies on his situational awareness, good communication, and team work. it’s not about a player being good enough to break a press. it’s a true team effort. so, like devlin, i agree that it’s not as simple as the players aren’t “good enough”. it comes down to training and preparation, which is management’s responsibility. likewise, management needs to understand that they tell players what to do but they can’t tell them how to do it; santi cazorla will do things differently from gilberto silva. its’ the player’s job to play and management’s job to prepare them to play. arteta needs to stop yelling at players from the touchline as if he’s got a playstation controller in his hand.
i forgot to mention, the point you made about sagna always being an option out under wenger. actually, that predates sagna to lauren. lauren, was a center mid that wenger brough from a club in spain (i believe malaga) that wenger made a right back. lauren was an awful defender but a smart enough player to be effective at right back despite his limitations. even after sagna’s arrival, eboue was played in the center of midfield for arsenal because of his ability to link play. the signing of debouchy and callum chambers (another center mid) were there to give arsenal an out play from the back.
also, the point you make about leno’s poor long ball ability is very valid. it was the one quality that emi martinez was clearly superior to leno.
Lauren was a beast – I took a look at the data from the invincibles season and he led the team in a number of critical categories both getting forward and getting back. In a lot of ways Wenger was the progenitor of the modern fullback/wingback style of wide players. It was maddening to us but what he was doing with Clichy, Sagna, Lauren, and Cole was truly revolutionary.
wenger seemed to prefer the right back to the left back as far as playing the ball out from the back. i didn’t notice a lot of balls going from the keeper to cole or clichy; maybe i just missed it. however, balls to lauren, eboue, sagna, and even hector appeared prominent. ironically, lauren, chambers, eboue, and debuchy were all center mids before transitioning to right back.
I agree with all of this. Both Champions League matches today provided us with ample evidence of the positive effect a manager has on players. It’s frankly odd when Bill says that we just need better players. Better players to DO WHAT?
After today’s spanking by Real Madrid to a side that just beat us 3-0, I’m not missing the Champions League that much anymore.
y
It’s a fair question, my genuine attempt to answer is “better players to do the same things these players are trying to do, only more successfully”.
Maybe “better” is the wrong word. I don’t think we have bad players, I think we have some players who are not committed and who after a year of being coached to do the basics a certain way are not able to make it work.
(In some ways I think Arteta’s approach is very basic. It’s about doing the basic things as well as possible, at the right tempo, in the right way, with the right level of quality. There are clearly some smart bits of structural and tactical preferences in there – control space without the ball, advanced fullbacks but one more tucked in, lots of “good” crosses, playing out from the back and the structures to do that well, make these kind of passes not those etc., but I don’t think there’s anything you can really give a name to).
I would never argue that managers can’t have positive or negative effects. E.g. your point about us being vulnerable to a high press is well-taken, but I think there is only so much coaching you can do on that, and we’ve seen it in improvements to players like Xhaka, who gets caught out far less often now and who generally makes better decisions and better use of the ball because he’s mentally further ahead of the play (chips over Burnley forwards with your wrong leg notwithstanding). But he’s always going to be vulnerable in certain situations (chips over Burnley forwards etc.).
So I think Arteta has had a positive effect on some players. Some are improving, some are thriving. Others are not. At some point you have to look at those players and think – well if it’s working for those players but not for you, maybe this team isn’t for you.
Or you look at the manager and think – these are the players we have, your job is to find a way to make them all play well. All of this can be flipped around into criticism of the manager. I agree that Arteta is pretty rigid – Wenger was stellar at adapting team play to the strengths of his players – but that’s the way football is going. I disliked Emery’s rigidity because I disliked the football he was trying to play – I admit my bias. I like the football Arteta is trying to play, we’re just not very consistent at it.
You’ve argued very persuasively that recruitment and squad management have been dire, Petit yesterday accused players of treating Arsenal like a holiday camp – I think these issues are more important than any of Arteta’s limitations, and I think he’s doing his best to take on that issue and fix it.
So yeah, better players. 🙂
Ok Barry GLIB!
I’m not sure I’m seeing the same things you are. You say that we want to control space without the ball – which is something others have said to me as well so I’ll take it as truth – but I guess I don’t see us doing that very well or maybe it’s a bad system? I don’t know. All I know is that I don’t feel confident in the defense but that could just be me, being a fan.
I know that statistically we aren’t good at defense.
We are 7th in goals allowed
We are 10th in xGA on fbref
We are 9th in xGA on Understat (since Boxing Day)
We have conceded 50 big chances in 30 matches – 1.7 per game, it’s not good
We are 10th in shots on target allowed
We are 10th in shots allowed
And then when I look at the other defensive stats like tackles, pressures, etc. I don’t see us doing anything. Now, obviously, a lot of defense doesn’t show up in event stats (which is probably especially true for a team who want to control space) but if we were good at controlling space, wouldn’t the opposition have fewer shots? Smaller xG? Fewer big chances?
And let’s look at your example of Xhaka. Arteta has “made him better”, ok, I agree. How has he worked this miracle? He took the ball away from him and put a 2nd midfielder near him to basically mop up. If I’m Xhaka I’d be mortified. He went from a guy who was played as a single-pivot for most of his career, hitting wedge passes to forwards like a sprinkler to a guy whose job is mostly “just don’t do too much”. He’s one of the most expensive players in Arsenal history and he’s been reduced to 2nd fiddle MFer. And the fucked thing here is THAT WE NEED HIM. Without him, Arteta’s frankensystem doesn’t work!
So, yes, I agree that we need better players (I’ve been wanting to get rid of Xhaka since his 2nd year at the club), I wrote an article about it just the other day! But I think Arteta is failing to maximize the players he has. I’m not alone in that, Stillman wrote about that exact issue today.
Do you really look at this squad and think “Arsenal should be in 10th place?” I had us finishing 5th. 538 predicted 7th.
We are behind Leicester, West Ham, and Everton. We could even finish behind Villa this season. This isn’t good work, is it? And look, I know that this is basically a 5-year project. But we are now 18 months into that project and I’m not seeing a ton of progress. In fact, I’m seeing a lot of signs that indicate that maybe we aren’t as good as the January bump made us look.
I’m not “Arteta out” because I don’t think it matters what I think or want. But man, we have got to get a lot better, quickly. I mean, we could legit bomb out of the EL this week, just FYI. With all the injuries and with the way that the Racists of Prague play, we could be in real trouble.
+2
I don’t get the Barry Glib reference. I guess my comments are too many and too long, fair enough. Short version, and I’ll leave you alone:
– you wrote a post that you were convinced our defensive approach was to control space, if you are no longer convinced then no worries, you might be right.
– Xhaka’s better in his all round game, defensively (fewer rash tackles) and in possession and in winning second balls, he’s more alert and switched on, and it’s not just because he has fewer touches.
– I hear, acknowledge, understand and agree with your concerns about our underlying stats, both defensively and offensively.
– I still think it’s at least in part because the players often struggle with the basics, in a way which is surely not acceptable at this level.
– The fact that they sometimes struggle with these things could well be Arteta’s fault. He yells at them a lot, he might be a terrible communicator. I would certainly have hoped that the mistakes were ironed out by now.
– But I can’t see an overly rigid system that’s holding back the team or making them weak. If there is a rigid system then nobody’s been able to explain what it is or how it’s bad. Sometimes you can’t see something because it’s not there.
– I think we will still probably finish around 7th.
– Thanks for all the posts
I think Greg makes some good points here. It’s shocking how important Saka and ESR are to this team. Without their ability to both dribble and create, we become a very limited team. When we recovered possession, we literally had no outlets. Auba and Pepe don’t retain possession. They turn it over. Auba is not a high touch player who helps much in build up. I don’t buy that he’s unmotivated. We’re just asking him to do something that’s not his strength. He should be running in behind and poaching in the box. When when rely on him to beat a press, we’re asking for trouble. But what other option did Mikel have? Willian?
Saturday solved the previously unsolvable riddle: Name a player that’s more ponderous on the ball and has less of a burst than Granit Xhaka. Answer: Dani Onions. I am on record as criticizing Xhaka many many times. I’m not here to say he’s Iniesta. But one thing he has done well in recent games when paired with Partey is win second balls. He teams with ESR, or Saka or Tierney to control the ball that comes off the long header or the 50/50 ball. He gets to the right place and uses his body to help us get possession. Dani was too slow and not strong enough, and not good in the air. Liverpool ate his lunch. That was one of several reasons we never had possession. Sad, because I too had higher hopes of Dani being paired with Partey. That’s a tough game to try out a new partnership.
Sure, I put a lot of this down to Arteta. But he’s not the first manager to get destroyed when forced to test out a new midfield. And missing the boys, Xhaka AND Luiz, whose long distrubtion is really valuable against a team like Liverpool, was a huge ask.
Yeah, we are very up and down, but that’s life with a first-time manager. He is learning on the job. Remember when we said we all were in for a long term project as we rebuild? We’re in the middle of one, and it’s ugly sometimes. He doesn’t have unlimited runway, but I think there are enough moments of progress that we should continue to let him figure this out. He’s overhauling a roster, changing a culture, and trying to win games in a pandemic. He’s gonna have bad results. A lot of inconsistency. I still like more of what I see than what I don’t, and I think he has the players behind him through all of this. If we’re not playing good football at any point in the Fall, we should move on, but we’re still playing for EL title right now. For me, I’ve seen enough evolution to our game that there’s promise. We’ve hit another bad stretch of form but I expect a strong finish to the season.
One of the best bits of career / life advice I’ve received was as a cocky young twenty something in my first real job. It came after my first major screw up, and my boss told me “you’re never as good as you think you are, but you’re equally never as bad”.
With the benefit of a few days to get over the emotions, I am going to apply the same to Arteta. He screwed up against Liverpool. But he is better than that, and he just needs to learn from the experience. Madrid provided some well-timed assistance to that learning.
I don’t know much about Slavia Prague but for so many reasons really do hope we take the game to them. I could even bear losing (fully aware that it likely means our season is over) so long as we actually play.
Hopefully after tomorrow plus Sunday up north we’ll have a lot more to smile about again.