France and Belgium one step closer to beating England in the final

France hasn’t surrendered.

It’s an old joke, I know. I apologize. You deserve better. Can I work one in there about France and England fighting over Belgium? It would work a lot better if Germany were still in the tournament. Ha ha World War. I hate figuring out how to start writing,

The early match was a bit of a let down. Uruguay was missing Cavani, who was injured in the match against Portugal, and it just shows how critical it is to keep all of your best players together for these knockout tournaments. Without Cavani, Uruguay put up a great defensive wall but were undone by just a few moments of excellence by France.

Just to illustrate how good Uruguay’s defense was, they allowed 11 shots but just three inside the box, all three of those were headers, and there were zero big chances in this match. My expected goals for France were just 0.64.

Uruguay relied on 22 year old Arsenal signing Lucas Torreira to hold the midfield and he had his best match of the tournament. He made 4/5 tackles against a French team that blew the doors off his teammates with their dribbling (Mbappe was 6/11 – but five of his six successful dribbles were in the first half against Laxalt and Vecino). He also had 2 interceptions and most importantly, he stopped advancing play by just challenging French players.

That last bit is an underrated part of defending. People like the drama of a slide tackle and it’s always great to see a defensive midfielder step up and intercept a pass, but 90% of the time, the only thing that a player needs to do on defense is simply stop the attacker from advancing or run with the player off the ball. These were the fundamentals Unai Emery was showing the Arsenal players in those training videos and this is something that Torreira does constantly. He’s not just making spectacular tackles, he’s usually just “jockying” the opponent.* It’s something that Xhaka and others on this Arsenal team almost never do and something I expect to be arguing about for the next four years.

Uruguay were defeated, ultimately, when a Griezmann rocket slipped past Muslera. You could feel like both goals had an air of luck to them, or perhaps just wonderful accuracy and power. But that’s Griezmann for you. He’s a magnificent footballer who can drift in and out of games but has a knack for stepping up at just the right moment to win a game for his team.

In the other match Belgium were surprise winners over Brazil. My only thought on this match is that Belgium were “hella” lucky. Belgium scored on an own goal by Fernandinho and a shots from distance by de Bruyne. They managed to create just 0.62 expected goals off 9 shots with zero Big Chances. Meanwhile, Brazil created 27 chances, 8 of them were missed in prime areas.

The tackles were even at 26 each, Brazil had more interceptions (19-9, despite having 150 more passes) and they forced Belgium into 27 clearances. This wasn’t a tactical masterclass from the Belgium manager, it was just a case of players riding their luck. They won’t be so lucky against France. Or maybe they will.

Today, England beat Sweden and as projected, Sweden lost because they lack a cutting edge. Also as predicted, England are still playing the same way: staunchly refusing to play in the middle. They are now first in key passes off free kicks and corners and 12th worst in key passes from open play. Also, 33% of their key passes are long balls.

England have scored more penalties than any team and that also means more set play goals. 46% of their goals are from set plays. And they also have more headed goals than any other team. You have to hand it to Gareth Waistcoat he is playing to England’s strengths.

Right, I’m going to take Avie to the local bird preserve and see if we can spot some birbs. I can’t wait for next week when we can talk about France v. England and use the Hundred Years War as a metaphor. Burn Joan of Arc!

Qq

 

26 comments

  1. France v. England would be a great final. For France.

    Also for “Henry V” references. Just reheat all of Harry’s rousing French battlefield speeches and, voila! There’s even a Hotspur in the prequel.

    1. Then forth, dear countrymen. Let us deliver
      Our puissance into the hand of God,
      Putting it straight in expedition.
      Cheerly to sea. The signs of war advance.
      No king of England if not king of France.

  2. Thanx, Qq

    That Post is both amusing in a quirky way, and interesting analytically. 🙂

    I guess that will release the usual anti-English barbs from some, unfortunately.

    [No — I am not English].

  3. My prediction/guess is that Croatia will be too good for Russia tonight and will then dispose of England.

    France v Belgium should be a great match, but maybe Belgium will just edge it leading to a Belgium v Croatia Final, and that too should be really good.

    Look at that — no sly or even slightly racist digs at other countries.

  4. Birbs and doggos and cate.. I didn’t know you were into that sort of internet speak.

    England playing like that and making the semi final is pure bantzzz.. Martinez going Jose is pure bantzzz .. The best thing about the World Cup is not having to worry about any of this stuff. It’s fun.

    Glad that Torreira is seemingly on his way to have his medical and complete formalities with Arsenal.

    I’m eager for Arsenal to start again . Those training videos are fun but just make me more impatient

    1. Not that I’m going to declare Southgate a tactical genius or anything but strategically he has pretty much nailed it this tournament.
      His England are setup to either win 1-0 through a set piece against a stubborn defensive team or counter-attack the crap out of an attacking team. Yes, there’s an element of luck to the whole thing but given the lack of elite attacking midfielders (none of Sterling, Alli or Lingard is really a midfielder) he came up with a strategy that seems to work. They’ll be totally shafted if they concede first against a good side but in terms of defence they are probably better at not conceding without possession than any other side left in the tournament.

      And yes, bring on the proper football again!

      1. I’m not at all a fan of his “tactics” because it’s so ugly to watch but you’re right that he took a look at the elements available to him and realized he’s never going to be able to patiently build an attack and so went with the strengths of the players available.

  5. Bloody hell, Shardie — you are way beyond my ken with internet speak — birbs, doggies and cate — wassat then? 🙂

    Oh, gotcha — that’s just you and your 5:28 a.m. typos, again — birbs indeed — that was ‘barbs’. 😀

    Anyhoo – I have been quietly impressed by the changes put in place at the Home of Football, and I am becoming impatient for at least the friendly games to get underway to set the scene for the new season too.

  6. Russia and Croatia. Snooze. On this evidence, England will have nothing to fear heading into the semi-final.

    1. Bun, you asked whether anyone noticed linesmen blowing late on offside calls and how annoying it was.

      I think they were instructed to do that before the tournament – hold off on calling the borderline decisions too quickly, let the attacking opportunity unfold and VAR will sort out the ones that end up with a goal.

      Man, the atmosphere generated by the Russian supporters was crazy. Just before the 90min whistle blew when Croatia had the ball they were making this sort of booing/whistling/wailing sound that reminded me of the musical score during the last section of 2001: Space Odyssey. Home advantage is no joke! Mexico and the US better work on their crowd game ahead of 2026.

    2. I’m not so sure. Thought it was a pretty good game with Croatia deserving the win. Modric continues to play like someone ten years younger (where does he get the energy), and they have that Kramer look-a-like up front to bully our central pairing.
      England will not be able to surrender the mid field against this team.

  7. Scrappy games low on skill and high on fear of failure are the best ones. Even the majestic Modric was way below his best, and playing as if a terrible spanking from his mom awaited him at home if he lost.

    Russia overachieved. The the international version of West Bromwich Albion. A few players just below top drawer, big blokes, defend for dear life and try to nick something. Sometimes, as with Spain, you’re successful at giant killing.

    At other times you get found out. Better today than the semis.

  8. didn’t see the england game but wasn’t surprised at the result. sweden punched way above their weight to get this far. same for russia. it just goes to show that, in tournament play, the best team doesn’t always win. its’ why i place a greater value on league play than a cup competition. in league play, the best team always wins.

  9. Can I request you change the font type for the comments eg to be the same as the articles. It’s light black and very hard to read. Not just on my phone but different brands my friends use. Thanks.

  10. It’s clear to me that England have gone as far as they can go now with their fundamental limitations. Up against a team who can play, they will surely struggle. I think we should exit the tournament on a high, decline to play in the semi-final and wish the eventual tournament winners all the best 🙂

  11. Very much an anti England campaign going on at Untold & Untold light Positively Arsenal, sad fcuks that they are.
    No surprises there then!

  12. When most contributors to this fine blog made it clear how they felt about the English supporters I was kinda like erm, really?
    But then I noticed something weird about the gender make up of the English fans whenever cameras zoomed in on them during England play.
    It’s all guys and I’m not even joking here.
    Take any nation from any continent and you saw women being represented almost equally in numbers with men.
    Not the English though.
    Are these dudes such di#ks that their own women won’t have anything do with them?

    1. It’s even worse. I noticed that whereas most of the other nations were being represented by whole families, England support was a blokes paradise.

  13. Having said that. We (over here in the UK) were being discouraged by the media & some sections of the government from actually attending the World Cup due to threats from Russian Ultras etc., so leaving the girls at home was at least out of kindness (‘i suppose’)

  14. It will be England and France in the final if you listen to Wenger.
    Le Boss reminded everyone in his Be-in Sports commentary that no country with a population of under 40 million has won the World Cup recently. I believe he qualified Uruguay winning twice despite a current population of only 3.5 million.

    So that’s it, then.

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