Some quick hits today.
First, if you haven’t yet take a look over at the Arsenal dot com for the Tactical Breakdown by Adrian Clarke. Key thoughts:
- Arsenal’s new shape with the fullbacks pinching in and the DM’s covering wide when the fullbacks go forward
- Long passing by David Luiz
- Arsenal under pressure after 23 minutes
- Arsenal regain composure after going down to 10 men
- Arsenal fouled Palace far too often
That last one is interesting because I feel like most Arsenal supporters felt aggrieved at the referee for the fact that Ayew didn’t get a yellow card. But I didn’t even notice how many times he called us for a foul that I’m not sure he would have called on them. Fouls called highlights a fundamental truth about football refereeing, it’s subjective. Were we more fouly or did the referee just call our fouls more often? Is there any way to tell or do we just have to deal with this as a reality?
I land in the “deal with it” category. I do believe that Arsenal are treated differently from other teams. I think that the referees tend to be less lenient toward Arsenal and quicker to award the opposition a penalty or free kick. But I also think that we have to play through this. I don’t see any choice. I mean, we can yell at PGMOL and the Premier League but I feel like we have tried that for at least 15 years and it hasn’t done any good. In fact it may have made it worse.
Team news
Aubameyang is out and Bellerin still needs a few weeks. Kolasinac and Torreira both have some pain but they are training and they will probably want to play.
Asked whether he will start Martinelli in Auba’s absence, Arteta said he will decide between Martinelli, Pepe, and Nelson.
Arteta also revealed that he feels Ceballos is not quite up to the physical level required to play in the Premier League.
Transfer news
You might as well resign yourself to no transfers until summer. The why is pretty simple: Arsenal are actually a bit broke.
As things stand, Arsenal look likely to miss out on European Football next season. I hear some of you cheering in the background but I wouldn’t get too excited. No Europa League means a pretty substantial loss in revenue next season, which means less money to buy new players.
As Deloitte published just a few days ago, Arsenal are already below Spurs in the money charts. That is almost entirely down to Spurs getting Champions League football and Arsenal being stuck playing on Thursdays.
I don’t think Arsenal are going to get into the top four this season, which means that we will likely need to finish 5th to get the EL. Again, this feels like a pretty big ask considering where we stand – 11 points off 4th and 6 points off 5th.
So, while it seems ironic – by not spending money in January we virtually guarantee that we won’t make it into Europe – I don’t think Arsenal will want to take a big chance in January because it would mean further damaging the cash reserves.
It may feel chicken and egg but I actually see this as simply being prudent. We can’t guarantee European money next season, so we shouldn’t spend it. January is also a notoriously poor season to buy players. Plus we really need to move some players (notably Mustafi) in order to buy and that’s not really going to happen until Summer. Unless a top prospect lands in our laps we need to, I think, stand pat with what we’ve got.
If we win the Europa League – which I think will be our best chance of getting Champions League next season – then we can spend in the summer. Otherwise, I would expect a lot more prudence.
Isn’t 6th place also giving Europa League spot? Like for Wolves now. Or that second spot is reserved for the FA Cup winners (who are passing it to the 6th in the standing in case they finish above)
Actually, ManU were 6th. Wolves were 7th…
5th is automatic. 6th and 7th depends on who wins the Carabao Cup and the FA Cup. If City wins both for example, and finishes 2nd, then the Europa League spots they earned from the Cup wins go to the 6th and 7th place teams. That’s what happened last year with United and Wolves. Had Watford beat City in the FA Cup, then Wolves would not have gone (but Watford would have).
Bottom line – if City win the Carabao Cup (which they should) then 6th place will go. If one of City, Liverpool, Leicester or Chelsea (my assumed top 4) win the FA Cup then 7th place will go as well. However, 7th place will have a play-in game.
Not all Europa League hopes are gone for us.
I’m not giving up on winning the Europa League… I would love an Ajax-Arsenal final.
…i’m not giving up top 4 either.
Top 4 is possible but improvement will have to be accelerated and consistent. Tim broke it down a few posts ago – we need to win a s&$tload of games for top 4. But it’s always the hope that kills, right?
I hate the Europa League especially after last year’s capitulation against the Blues. It’s a remote possibility. A strong performance against Olypiakos away will do wonders.
I think we can go deep in the FA Cup competition and maybe continue our tradition there. I like us for that more that any of the other possibilities.
Top four is a huge ask and if Arteta and the club were to pull that off it would be astounding.
Look, Arteta already have the current crop of players surpassing (by far) the level of effort before Freddie stepped in. Let’s say we get John Stones in on loan and we have a bit of depth at CB? As long as Lucas Torreira stays upright– this team might make a push into an EL spot– or even the EL final (where we’re due.)
Feel good about the possibilities with Mikel Arteta driving things. Why not?
Public Service Announcement – read to the end
Hi, everybody. My name is Greg. You may know me from Other Comments On This Blog. January can be a bad month – we recently spent time with our horrible families which triggered PTSD from growing up, we are broke and the weather is evil and it’s dark all the time. So I am just generally checking in with people to make sure they are OK, and since Tim has made this a space where occasional trips into mental health are acceptable, that goes for you arseholes too.
Last year I owned up to my wife and then a doctor that I was not doing so well in the head. I never talked about anything because I felt ashamed, I felt like my problems were not serious, and I should be strong enough to cope on my own, so working up the balls to ask for help was a big deal. Yes I do want a medal.
It turns out however that asking for help is a Good Idea, even if you feel like your problems are nothing. Sometimes they are nothing, and that’s great. But sometimes the voice in your head that tells you that you your problems are nothing is the same voice that tells you that you shouldn’t ask for help because you shouldn’t ask for anything, because you don’t deserve anything, because after all you got yourself where you are, so a fair outcome is that you continue to be miserable, you worthless piece of shit.
Do not listen to that voice. I want to make sure everyone knows that they should absolutely not listen to that voice. That is not your voice, it’s a voice you have internalised, and it’s the voice of every moment you have been uncared for. It feeds on your suffering and your shame, it hungers for you to suffer more, and it will never be satisfied.
I also know that the US healthcare system is a catastrophe (vote Bernie), and because I just got 6 months of back pay (woohoo!), I have some money in the bank right now. So if any USian on this blog is having a hard time but is holding back from talking to a doctor because of money worries, I can and will happily cover your co-pay for your first consultation, or the full cost of the consultation if you don’t have insurance, no questions asked. greg andrews at ymail dot com.
You can pay me back later, or never.
OK, back to football.
Wow, Greg, this is a tremendous offer. Thank you.
+1
Gracious and magnanimous sir.
Interesting on Arsenal’s treatment by referees – my intuition is that it’s a standard away team/ home team thing these days, but under Wenger Arsenal had a reputation and were treated differently regardless of venue.
As for yelling into the wind on that, for sure we as fans might feel that, but you’d like to think that the club now has the resources and the analysis to examine in-game calls on a systematic basis (eg – every single point of contact & outcome) and use that to hold the PGMOL to account. If we’re not, we should be.
Someone should ask sometime, though speaking out loud about these things would create a culture clash. Does maintaining highest professional standards/ making marginal gains > appearing to adhere to “spirit of the game”/ respect for the authority of the rules?
There is a site dedicated to referee performances
https://untold-arsenal.com/referees
Per The Athletic:
“Arsenal are in advanced talks over the signing of Paris Saint-Germain left-back Layvin Kurzawa. Head of football Raul Sanllehi is leading the negotiations, with key discussions understood to be taking place today.
The 27-year-old would be available on a free transfer when his contract expires this summer but Arsenal intend to sign him immediately and there is some hope that they may be able to recruit him without paying a fee.”