Arsenal v. Leeds: underdogs

Welcome to Sunday. I hope you’ve had a good holiday season, that your children got all their wishes, and that you adults got everything you wanted as well. I did.

I got a robe which has a hood and now when I feed the chickens in the morning, I look like Obi-Wan Kenobi. Which was my only desire for 2019. I firmly believe that we humans should wear robes and capes more often. Tight fitting clothes are awful.

I also discovered that nurses and doctors basically get to wear pajamas to work. How come more of us don’t get to wear pajamas? Lol, imagine turning up to work tomorrow in scrubs! I bet you’d get some looks for sure. Unless you work in a hospital, which at least a few of you do!

Anyway, enough about sartorial choices. We have a match tomorrow against Leeds United Football Club in the English Football Association Cup.

Known as the FA Cup it is the oldest cup competition in Association Football. And no club has more FA Cup titles than Arsenal Football Club (also known as The Arsenal) with 13. Mikel Arteta – who is the current manager of The Arsenal – also captained The Arsenal in 2013/14 when the club won it’s 11th FA Cup.

That was an important win for the club, the players, and the manager. The Arsenal had been criticized for finishing top four every season but failing to lift any silverware. Winning the cup helped alleviate that criticism and the manner of the win – coming back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 – pushed many of the players on to win two more FA Cups. In his pre-match press conference on Thursday Arteta spoke about that experience and why he feels this competition is special:

“That final day of the season at Wembley and the memories that I’ve got with this football club… We have to be challenging for the cups and we’ll try to do that again this season… obviously it is a competition that is very attached to this football club in recent years and we have to take to very seriously and we have to try to go to the next round.”

Arsenal, however, are suffering from a wave of injuries and fatigue. The injuries aren’t something you can legislate for – not really. Arsenal did well to purchase two fullbacks for each position and six center backs and yet due to some rather untimely and harsh injuries are forced to play with the same five or six players during the busiest time of the season.

The boxing day fixtures may be fun for the supporters and profitable for the broadcasters but they are potentially disastrous for the players. The Premier League should be ashamed of itself for not reducing the number of matches in the week after Christmas. It feels like at least some sort of negligence in regard to player safety. But it’s money that really matters, which isn’t some great insight or anything.

But injury and fatigue are certainly going to play a role in tomorrow’s starting XI. I expect Aubameyang to get a break, he was dead on his feet in the last match. That clears the way for teen phenom Martinelli to start wide left – if he can pass a fitness test. On the right we should see Reiss Nelson and through the middle, well, maybe Pepe? See, it’s not easy picking the lineup.

This same problem permeates the midfield and back four. Which players will play fullback? Which will play center back? Who will play in CM? Recently, Arsenal have been forced to play forwards in the fullback roles. Arteta will likely be forced to make some interesting changes.

One critical player that Arsenal will miss tomorrow is Calum Chambers – a sentence I never thought I would write. I admit that I never rated him and yes I watched him at Fulham – he was slow, he made a lot of mistakes, he was dribbled past far too easily, and his passing wasn’t good. But this season he’s made an incredible improvement. He’s now third in the League in tackle % (he went from a 59% tackler to an 89% tackler) and his passing has improved in almost all areas (his short passing is still poor).

The Arsenal’s opponents are Leeds United and they are managed by Marcelo Bielsa. Bielsa was the manager who inspired Pep Guardiola, Guardiola is the manager who taught Arteta and now this whole thing feels like an episode of Star Wars, the apprentice returns to challenge the master or something.

Bielsa’s brand is high intensity, pressing, ball domination, attacking, and fluid football. If that sounds familiar, it’s because it is: Guardiola plays that way and Arteta is trying to get Arsenal to play that way. Unfortunately, Bielsa has been working with his squad for two years, Arteta has had two weeks.

One statlet that might help is that while Bamford leads Leeds with 10 goals, Leeds have 11 players who have scored a goal and 8 players with 3 or more goals this season. Arsenal have just 3 players with 3 or more goals this season.

Leeds also have 5 players with 1+ interceptions per90 this season (3 of them average over 2 per contest) and 8 players with 1+ tackles (possession won) per90. Arsenal have just 4 players who average over a tackle per90 and five players with over 1+ INT per90. Just one Arsenal player averages over 2 interceptions per game, Ainsley Maitland-Niles. It feels unlikely that he will play tomorrow.

Leeds have only allowed 9 goals from open play in the Championship this season and they only allow 9 shots per game! Arsenal may have over $200m worth of fowards available but they will not find scoring easy against this team.

Injuries, fatigue, a change in manager, going up against a well drilled team who play high intensity football. All of that is to say that you should expect heavy pressure on Arsenal in possession and difficulty with Arsenal passing through the lines and advancing the ball. Arsenal may have the more expensively assembled team but I feel like they are the underdogs here.

Qq

30 comments

  1. “Winning the cup helped alleviate that criticism and the manner of the win – coming back from 2-0 down to win 3-2 …”

    Also remember it nearly being 3-0 Hull– had Kieran Gibbs not stationed himself at the far post– heading one away. Think I watched the whole thing on the TV– while standing in the living room. Ramsey with heroics late in extra-time– off a back heel from OG.

      1. Simply, how close to it had become to being unattainable.
        That moment we’d all awaited nine years for– with the redemption of a trophy.

        A defining moment was almost put out of reach– had it not been for Gibbs good positioning. One moment of defensive clarity– in that chaotic first 8-9 minutes.

  2. Arsenal Leeds games always used to be feisty affairs. The Leeds players liked to kick anything that moved. My mind goes back to the 1972 cup final. Crap game. “Sniffer” Clarke got the winner for Leeds with a diving header. I can see it now. Bob McNab failed to cut out the cross. Happy days. Maybe not.

  3. I live in the tropics. And while I havent gone Mark Zuckerberg in my work wear, you wont catch me dead in a suit, jacket and tie. I strongly recommend a long sleeved Guayabera, worn with a shirt undergarment. I wear that with jeans (usually black or dark blue) and a smart pair of leather shoes, sometimes without socks. Im comfortable without being informal. The guayabera became the go to shirt for the leadership in many newly independent countries, eager to show everyone that they’d thrown off the yoke of colonialism. It works for me. On Fridays, I like polos with chinos… smart shoes and (matching) belt accessorised.

    If I have to attend a conference, have a serious meeting or do a presentation, I’d suit up. But even so, no tie. If Andrew Yang can audition for the most important job in the world without the hangman’s noose, I dont have to wear one either.

  4. I began my career working in Leeds and now live 15 minutes away after spells around the world. Leeds Utd were quite a force in the late 60s and early 70s (before my time might I add) and famously were managed by Cloughie for 44 days before he found his spiritual home at Forest.

    Leeds will always be synonymous with tales of greed and demise when the premier league cash injections started to really take off. It’s hard to believe that nearly two decades has passed since they were in the top division – a cautionary tale for over ambition. But we now play them when our paths have rarely been closer.

    Fans I know have been optimistic before but there’s a real sense that Bielsa is the man to take them back to the head table. This will likely be a very good and close game and I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a bloody nose. We saw in yesterday’s Merseyside derby the power of having a culture and style that cascades from the first team through to the academy.

    Bielsa is an interesting character widely cited as the guru and reference point for early career Guardiola. But he has won very little and not achieved similar heights. No doubt getting Leeds promoted this Summer will be one of his greatest achievements.

    1. I was at Leeds University around about that time. An absolute nightmare for an Arsenal fan. It was a hard, uncompromising place in those days, epitomised by their football team. They always seemed to have the edge over us, a fact they never failed to remind us of. Walk in a pub and the locals could spot a “cockney b@st@rd” a mile off. Being a fan was a far riskier activity then.

  5. We’ll miss Calum Chambers a lot. We perennially need bodies back there and we are short once again. But I think tackling numbers are over-rated as a stat for defenders. My all-time favourite player, the incomparable Paolo Maldini had very low tackling numbers because his positioning was so superb. He rarely had to commit himself. He was just there, all the time and still in your face.

    I like Arteta’s comments about going for the cups in the context of recent Arsenal history. It’s a semi-reasonable, not outrageous goal to aim for.

    Because I know you asked, I had a band in college called The Spin Doctors (way before the band of “Two Princes” fame). We wore scrubs. Our bass player insisted on wearing a stethoscope he borrowed from dad (in rarer use now by real doctors these days because of the electronic do dads available). The head of the stethoscope would hit him in the face sometimes because he used to jump around a lot but he never took it off. He wasn’t even that great a bass player be the girls dug him so you know he had to stick around.

    Happy New Year to you, me and all of us.

  6. Leeds are just classless. from the scum team of the 60’s and 70’s with hackers Hunter, Giles, Madely and Charlton etc.. The late 90’s with Ridsdale and laterly top scumbag Ken Bates who skinted the club but failed to find a Abramovich second time.
    Woodgate and Bowyer in the racist attack which should have seen them booted out of football.
    This new manager spying on other teams training sessions the list is endless.
    I dearly hope we can rip them a new one and it will destabilise the promotion hopes.

    1. The whole spying thing was so overblown, a lot of pearl clutching from journalists who just months before had gladly scouted England’s world cup opponents’ practices for the national team.

  7. while i haven’t seen leeds play, the stats tell a lovely story. like 1-nil, i don’t care for the tackle statistic, as it often implies someone saw something late. the other stats, i do like. they imply the entire team is putting in a shift in all 3 phases of play. that’s a sign of a well-coached team. they’re going to be difficult to beat. i’m looking forward to this game.

  8. when i think of the biggest collapse in arsenal history, it’s during the ’02-’03 season. wenger predicted arsenal could go unbeaten. they were, certainly, the best team in the league. somehow, they managed to blow it in a game against leeds united and that stands out to me. i remember mark viduka, harry kewell, dominic matteo, and alan smith kicking the crap out of arsenal on a spring day, essentially ending arsenal’s title challenge that season.

  9. Don’t know a single thing about Leeds these days other than who’s coaching them, but are we really the underdog at home to a Championship club?

    Not gonna watch it but hopefully Claude comes through with some at real time commentary.

    1. I was surprised to see the strength of that team sheet, but, then again, the league is pretty much finished for us, so the FA Cup might as well be taken as seriously as possible. I also think Arteta figured there’s enough recuperation time between the games now that he could afford to play the likes of Ozil and Pepe.

      I’m going to be positive about this decision and say the following: Arteta doesn’t want to be reactive, so he puts out a strong team in the hopes of taking the initiative, and will put on some inexperienced players once the game looks reasonably settled in our favor. Fingers crossed. Also, the winning is addictive stuff.

      I want the win, obviously, but, more than that…no injuries. Please, for the love of God.

  10. Nearly half time and there’s only one team in it.
    Spoiler alert
    It’s not Arsenal.
    All the passing, movement and shots on goal are coming from Leeds.
    Very, very poor.

  11. Halftime, 0-0.

    The big boys are playing in blue, the apprentices in red. And it’s not even close. Let’s give them some credit before moaning, shall we? A Bielsa masterclass. This team will finish in the Top 6 in the prem when they inevitably get promoted.

    Ok, to the moaning. Laca cant keep it. His man marker has been imperious. Not helped by the fact that this is one of those indifferent games of his, where it appears that he’s never heard of quick passing or one touch football. The weakness of Laca’s game, made manifest here, is not he can be ball hog, even when teammates have made themselves available. terrific against United, ordinary here.

    As was Nelson, ineffective, lightweight and easily dispossessed. Rob Holding looks a bit rusty. Guendouzi needs to find his mojo again. And for a central midfielder, his tackling is not good these days. Arteta needs another body in midfield. And Saka for Nelson, please.

    No excuses, but the team looks a bit leggy. Early 2nd half sud I’d also sit Mesut — outstanding against United — for some ferrying dynamism from Ceballos. Willock for Guen is an option too.

    Player who has caught my eye is their young goalkeeper, Meslier. What an ice-cool distributor of the football. He looks like an outfield libero.

  12. The Boys in Red and White clearly got a talking to by a certain Basque at half-time. And they responded. Much, much better and Pepe again!

  13. And today’s menu offers several selections of tasty humble pie…

    Come on you Gunners! One Nil to the Arsenal!

    1. Thank the lord for that turnaround. The first half was very uncomfortable in the ground. Very subdued from the Arsenal fans and the huge swathe of loudmouth Leeds fans were horrible. It was good to shut them up for a while.

  14. Leeds will be kicking themselves. They should have had the game wrapped up by half time. Martinelli should be getting more game time. He plays with the sort of energy we lack.

  15. It was a tough ask of the players given how much and how intensely they’ve played in the past two weeks, so I’m not surprised there was a legginess to the first half. Massive credit for their response in the second. Lacazette = tireless!

    1. Amen.

      The first team, between injuries and fixtures, is almost a nub. No wonder the boys looked leggy. Jeebus, sometimes our lot of supporters sound more like Dallas Cowboy fans…or Oklahoma Sooners.

  16. “Second half Nelson”
    “One eye one arm one nil Nelson”
    “Nelson on the Victory”

  17. Arsenal didnt play well first half. Im one who said this and also said this also noted that they looked leggy. Both those things can be true. Fixture congestion affects every team in the league, not just us. Laca said that Arteta yelled at them at halftime, so bad were they.

    One of our worst players on the day was our goalscorer. Nelson timed his run into the box nicely for his tap in, but the guy is seriously lightweight and gets bodied off the ball more easily than any other player Ive seen in a top flight team. He’s got ability, obviously, but needs to hit the gym. He also loses his footing a lot. The coach likes him, though.

    Leeds are a premiership quality side… top half premiership quality. Arteta had no choice but to play a strong team and rotate lightly. Rob Holding did not help his cause. Guendouzi was superb second half, once he got on the ball and started running with it. Laca improved massively once he went to one-touch, quick passing on his holdup, but his radar in the box is still wonky. We improved generally once Mesut got on the ball more.

    1. Leeds are a top 10 team in the Premier League coached by an exceptional manager, one who a lot of people think will be considered in the pantheon of revolutionary coaches like Sacchi and Cruyff when he’s done. Even though they played a slightly weaker side we should be real proud of coming through the game victorious.

      Nelson should be sold this summer. I’m pretty sure all the time he’s getting is a) because he’s a player that is doing in training what Arteta wants and b) he’s getting polished so some team in the lower table will take a 30-35m+ flyer on him a la Iwobi. If we want to be better we also have to be ruthless about selling the young- but more or less average – players, the same way Liverpool and Chelsea have been raising funds for years.

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