I wish I had more time to dedicate to a longer post this morning but you know when I first started this blog – and for many years after – I would just write a one or two paragraph post. Just a few thoughts of the day with the only point being to keep up the daily practice of writing. As time went on I found I had more and more to say until I was writing 1000 words a day.
Thankfully, I’ve spared you that today. I’ll also spare you any editing.
Going into the weekend, Arsenal are in turmoil on and off the pitch. On the pitch Arsenal have only won one of their last six matches, and in those matches they have scored 12 and conceded 12. Off the pitch the captain, and mainstay in the coach’s often otherwise chaotic team selection, has been dropped and stripped of his epaulettes. Both are simply symptoms of the problem at Arsenal. And whilst Arsenal still suffering those symptoms, they get to face Brendan Rodgers and his high flying Leicester.
If we go by xG, Leicester’s attack is worse than Arsenal’s but their defense is better. Leicester are 13th on the table sorted by xG with 14.29. Arsenal are 9th on the xG table with 15.21. Leicester are overperforming xG by a whopping +12.71 – in other words they have scored almost 13 more goals than you would expect them to, over just 11 games so far this season.
I would count on a correction at some point for Leicester: my experience tells me that they aren’t going to end the season at this same pace, that would make them +43.9 over xG. According to the data that I have, no team has ever outperformed xG to that extent – the best I can find are Chelsea in 2016/17 (+22), Barcelona in 2016/17 (+23), both Monaco and Lyon in 2017/18 (+22), Monaco in 2016/17 (+31), and Juventus in 2017/18 (+27).
However, the big question is how much correction? They could continue to overperform xG all season, end with a +30, be a bit of an anomaly but still below the Mbappe-led title winning Monaco in 2016/17.
All this to say that I would count on goals from Leicester against Arsenal tomorrow.
I also looked at game state, shot positions, attack speed, everything. They just overperform in every single category.
Formation wise, they like to play a 4141 with Ndidi in the middle, mopping things up and Maddison up top running the show. If only Arsenal had a DM and a creative midfielder.
And in defense, they managed to get rid of lodestone (and large headed man) Harry Maguire, brought in a 31 year old CB, and made their defense better! They are a proactive defensive team. I wrote about this last month on Arseblog. They actively try to win the ball back all the time. Meanwhile, Arsenal are notoriously weak under pressure.
I have some hesitation saying this but.. they are so organized, so good pressing, and Arsenal are so disorganized, and in such disarray in possession that Arsenal could get skinned by this team. I mean a heavy loss.
Even if Arsenal manage to eek out a win it will be a hell of an ugly game for Arsenal, I think: expect them to concede 20+ shots, many big chances. And if we are going to pull off an upset, it will be because we got lucky, there was a moment of brilliance in the attack, and because Leno saved us. It will take all three.
And finally, I was looking at the League table this morning and Arsenal are in 5th place with 17 points. It seems unlikely but if Sheffield United beats Tottenham, Palace beats Chelsea, Bournemouth beats Newcastle, Brighton beats Man U, and Arsenal lose to Leicester Arsenal could be in 9th place at the end of the weekend!
Obviously, that’s a low percentage bet. But, if any of those “smaller” teams win and Arsenal lose, they leapfrog Arsenal in the table. Actually, even if Sheffield and Bournemouth draw and Arsenal lose those teams will overtake Arsenal in the table, making us 7th.
By the way, Brendan Rodgers has been on the job at Leicester for less than 9 months and has overhauled their defense, organized a press, and managed to get the best out of his strikers. Incredible job there.
I actually think we’ll draw this game. I base that on nothing other than a hunch and to paraphrase Rowdy Roddy Piper – just when you think you have all the answers, someone changes the questions.
Leicester goes up 1-0 just before half. We come back and tie it up against the run of play mid-way through the second and hold on for the draw. A gruesome game where we have <35% possession, Sokratis and Luiz play heroically on the low-block and we try to play on the counter. The Vittoria game was a test-run for a 3-4-3, he'll try Sokratis/Luiz/Mustafi, Kola/Torreira/Guendouzi/Bellerin, Ozil/Laca/Auba.
Ozil will be our goalscorer, Leno MOTM.
More confusion about what to do going forward? Sown. The best thing for the club would be for Leicester to slaughter us mercilessly, but I doubt if that will happen only because it's exactly what we need.
Arsenal surprising supporters with an unexpected win doesn’t happen very often. Arsenal doing the expected and capitulating against even mediocre teams happens all to often.
Leicester could be off to the races in the first 20 minutes. However it shakes out I can’t see us getting three points tomorrow.
I’m going the other way on this one. The Arsenal of the 2010’s plays their best football when the pressure is off and nobody expects them to do anything. Leicester on the other hand have been swinging above their weight and while Rodgers is not a bad coach he’s also not someone who terrifies me to go against him. I think Arsenal could get a result here and surprise people because Leicester will push forward and our guys will get chances. Rose tinted glasses? Yes, that’s why I’m a fan and not a gambler.
The same Rodgers’ Liverpool thrashed us at Anfield few years ago. We were TOP of the league , if I am correct and were supposedly title contenders. I remember us getting humiliated. By half time we were 4-0 down. So let’s not bet so easily on us winning anything at Leicester.
I haven’t been watching our games live, it’s too uncomfortable so I chicken out and watch the highlights if there are any. But I might watch the game tomorrow because I have no fear of us playing badly and shipping a boatload of goals. The sooner Emery goes, the better for our team, and a heavy loss can only hasten his departure, so bring it on. I just hope there’s no lasting damage to team morale, but I think the players are savvy enough to know where the root of the problem lies.
I saw a stat going around a while ago, not sure if it’s still true but feels about right, which is that Unai’s record so far is basically identical to Wenger’s last season. For me, the constant in that is a team that’s not quite good enough to compete at the top tier. I also don’t think that his players have quit on Emery, and if anything their ire has been directed at us, the fans. I’ve said this many times but I think it’s worth repeating that a change in coach by itself is unlikely to make the difference between where we are and where we want to go. At this point it feels already like the latter two or so Wenger years where there is a sizeable contingent of folks who just want change for the sake of change.
If there is an argument to be made that a coach is available right now who is for sure going to be a better fit for this team, I’m all ears. I just don’t see how you can reliably predict how that alchemy will come together on and off the pitch until the guy is really here.
My gut feeling is that the players HAVE quit playing for Emery, they don’t seem to believe in or even understand his “system” and his treatment of some of them is clearly personal, and borders on the bizarre. I don’t have a clear preference as to a replacement, and I agree that change is no guarantee of instant improvement, but how long do you hold on to what is clearly a losing hand before you ask for a re-deal?
That’s a big life question. At what point does persistence become futile? Persistence is a virtue, to a point, but so is adaptation to change. No easy answers here.
continued persistence with emery is clearly futile.
No, I agree Doc. It’s a hard decision. I’ve made my share of boneheaded choices but head and heart both say it’s time to try something different. I don’t like watching us play right now and the trajectory seems to be downward.
I’m sympathetic to that view, Doc, and I’ve been patient with Emery in part for the reasons you suggest and in part because I thought it was unfair to dismiss him after four games into this season (as many did). Now, however, I’ve seen enough. We’re into November now, and I can see that even with the backing of the summer’s transfer window, with an almost full complement of the squad available, and after a year to acclimatize to the league and club, this is as good as it gets. Disjointed, cautious football, with weekly tinkering that seems to confuse players, and draws that feel inevitable, and wins that probably should have been draws or losses.
I’ve also come around to the idea that a change of coach can make a difference, and in very little time. As Tim says, Rodgers turned Leicester around in just seven months. I was encouraged by today’s Arsecast, when the Leicester fan on the show talked about Puel’s approach to training and match preparation in ways that reminded me of Emery’s. The players have responded so well to Rodgers, and I would hope something similar could happen at Arsenal.
There’s no guarantee, of course. Much depends on getting the right coach for our players. What kind of coach would get the most of our players? I can’t pretend to know the answer to that question, but hopefully Raul and Edu are doing their homework.
Yeah, I’m definitely not here to say I know the right answer, I just want to spread a little caution in the wind because not all changes are for the better. For every time players respond really well to a new coach it feels like there are as many instances where the opposite happens, or sometimes even both to the same coach (see: Solksjaer, Ole). It is possible that we can fire Emery, bring in Max Allegri in January and go on a tear for the rest of the season. I just don’t think that it’s any more likely that that will happen rather than not finding anyone particularly palatable, entrusting the team to the very raw Freddie Ljungberg for half of the season and suffer through his growing pains as a coach. Or that Max or someone of his ilk does somehow come in mid-season and just fails to strike the right chords and nothing really changes. Or that Emery finds the right balance and his team starts to string results together again and we all feel a little bit better about him in a few months. We’re rolling the dice either way we go and as I said, I’m not a gambler for good reason. I just believe in persistence maybe a little too much.
I share in your feeling of ‘not knowing the right answer’, but I just wanted to throw out there that, while it may appear–based on the performances this squad has put in since last January–that the results wouldn’t substantially change no matter who’s in charge, in fact we’ve seen at Leicester, for example, that players who look disjointed, fragile, and cautious under one manager, can look vastly different in a matter of a few months under the right leadership. That’s my hope, anyway.
As for who should take over, like I said, no idea. I’m wary, though, of any calls for Ljungberg. I don’t mind him taking over for a few games while we sort out the details of another, more experienced / suitable coach. But hey, maybe Edu and Raul see something there that’s worth taking a punt on. I’d be surprised.
Also, Ornstein just confirmed that Emery is on a solid 3 year deal: that means he’s got another what, £10m left on his deal? Plus whatever his staff are paid, plus whatever the new guy would get and suddenly you can see why they haven’t pulled the trigger. Starting to worry they won’t do anything until Spring.
This season feels a lot like the Leicester championship season; the competition for 3rd and 4th are down and we’re not taking advantage. United and Spurs are not good teams right now. Chelsea has a neophyte manager and is playing a kids. Everton are dramatically underperforming. Leicester are coached by a man who proved himself a bit of a choke artist at his last major job. We should be 3rd, and comfortably so. This game tomorrow should be an opportunity for us to put Leicester down, not try and close the gap on them.
I agree – there’s not much out there right now to replace Emery. I don’t like Allegri and don’t think he’d come to Arsenal anyway. I’d like ten Hag out of Ajax, but we’d have to wait until the season is done.
But in the meantime, we’re just waiting to flop this season if we stick with Emery.
To the predictions…
Yesterday, I said 4-0 to Leicester. I like Doc’s optimism, so I’m going to revise that to 3-2 to Leicester!
They’re at home, flying high; they have a plan and structure in place that doesn’t change from game to game, so the players all know where they’re supposed to be and, importantly, where their teammates are on the pitch. They have a strong, in-form deep-lying central defender who is actually played as a defensive / deep-lying midfielder. They press relentlessly. We are the opposite of all those things, and struggle mightily to deal with any pressing team. The only thing we have in common is an in-form striker, though even Aubameyang has gone off the boil recently on account of chance starvation.
Can’t see past a loss. I’ll still watch, though. The joy!
Even a blind can see that Emery is not the answer. When we lose tomorrow (by how many is the question), Raul should revisit his Luis Enrique thought.
https://twitter.com/WorldwideAFC
Yes, there’s no doubt about a Barca connection there and he is available. But Luis Enrique has had one stint outside of Spain (Roma) and was pretty much considered a bust there. He does however have a history of blooding young players while also managing some of the biggest names in the sport. He had a reputation at Barca for being pretty hard to get along with and the fact that benched Messi for arguing with him tells me Ozil would still be in trouble.
I’d put the odds of him being the next manager for Arsenal pretty high. But that doesn’t mean it would a big improvement.
luís enrique is a great manager but is he really a viable option? everyone responds to that sort of tragedy differently and it’s only just recently happened. my guess is that he’d go back to the spain team before anywhere else.
Emery being quoted saying that Xhaka is training well but is not mentally ready to play against Leicester. Thank you Xhaka. Emery goes on to say that internally they have discussed selling Xhaka in January. Emery also said that Xhaka is not ready to defend the shirt. Duh, no sh*t Sherlock.
https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/50354467
So now can we see Torreira in the position for which we sign him. Torreira is not Ramsey. Ramsey now plays for Juventus where he is stealing goals from Ronaldo. So stop trying to replace Ramsey with Torreira. Stop trying to recreate the most successful period Arsenal have had under Emery when he had Ramsey in the line up. Get over it. It is done. Time to move on and actually train this team like a Rodgers, Guardiola, Klopp or Lampard would do.
CBS and Univision have won the broadcast rights jointly for UCL starting in 2021.
CBS???
https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Breaking-News/2019/11/CBS.aspx
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2019/11/07/doesnt-matter-arsenal-captain-like-family-says-sokratis/
The only line worth reading in this article comes from Tierney saying: “If we knew what it was we would fix the problem”.
Tierney is trying to be a stand up guy and is being honest. The statement though is an indictment of a coaching staff that is effing clueless.
Aubameyang’s first game as (first) captain. I wonder if the players will have a reaction to that? Otherwise it seems to me they have a few moments of effort before they just start going through the motions.
I don’t really care any more. We’ll likely lose, but even if and when we win, the football has no joy, no spirit. It’s dull and lifeless. No matter who he blames next, that is down to Emery.
The fatalism in the possibility of us winning is the most damning reaction to a manager I can remember.
And I’m totally feeling it
My favourite matches from the past were always the ones where we were clearly getting skinned by the refs, but instead of falling down and moaning about it, the lads would borrow a bit of inspiration from Cerrano in “Major League”: “You no help me now, so I say f-you, [ref]. I do it myself”.
I think it’s past time they showed the same sentiment towards Emery. I’m just not sure there’s enough of them who have the cojones.
Strictly by the numbers analysis– I see the differences in the clubs statistically. But toss out the the 9-0 stat skewer at Southampton– and there’s not that big of a gap.
To me it’s a huge divide in the respective tactics of each– and the level of charisma motivating players.
Will say it again. Football isn’t linear, and much as the odds favour Leicester (that’s not something I’d have typed a year ago), all results are possible. Which Arsenal will turn up is anyone’s guess. We have a rested and motivated Aubameyang, so he’ll be a handful.
Watch Martinelli. He’s player of the month for October, and he’d knocking on the door. I reckon we should be asking more of Lacazette, and the teenager is close to giving him that. Not sure he’ll start, though.
Torreira has become restive. Restore him to the base of the midfield. The rest is a tossup.
Son jus scored, and the comments were as follows…
“He’s had a difficult week”
“He deserves his goal, after the week he’s had to put up with”.
“He’s a great lad… deserves his goal (wait for it) …. after what HE has been through.
Son shouldn’t even be playing.
Plus, VAR just struck again to deny Sheffield a goal.
That’s the point where I stopped watching. VAR isn’t just useless, it’s actually driving fans away from the game. Hat’s off, Tim, you saw this coming.
Son is a diving cnut full stop.
Sheffield deserved to win this game for sure.
One of the reasons Emery still has the job is because Spurs and United are even worse off and haven’t fired their coaches either.
Wow, Emery’s lineup is pretty refreshing … seems like we’re going to be building a dam in the center of the park to stop the these wolves in foxes wear! Chambers, Torreira and Guendouzi anchoring the midfield. Seems like Unai strikes to baffle the opposition (hopefully not us the fans) yet again!
stop these*
Arsenal back 3 — Chambers, Holding and Luiz — with Hector and Kola WBs. Torreira and Guen MF 2. Ozil, Laca and Auba up front. 3412 with Mesut floating?
No Sokratis, no Pepe, no Ceballos
Like?
Like?
Doesn’t matter
Ask again in 45 minutes.
This is awful. I don’t really get joy from arsenal games anymore. They’re stressful and inevitably disappointing and frequently very boring. I hate what has happened to this club. The players look like they have no confidence, no idea where they’re supposed to be or what to do with the ball. Five yard passes backwards are constantly misplaced. Ugh.
This is embarrassing. Our entire team is in our box and they still look like they’re going to score at any moment. What have we had, like 30 percent possession?
Halftime.
Well we’re making ’em look like Messi’s Barcelona, aren’t we? But as least it’s level, and the tonking feared by fainthearted gooners hasn’t materialised.
What Emery has turned us into is a reactive side. We mosly jog around in our own final third waiting for a mistake by them. Rob Holding has not looked good. Consistently playing his keeper and defence into trouble, and failing to spot the open man in the middle.
What have they done to our Laca? Who is this toothless, ineffective forward who looks nowhere near threatening upfront, and who no longer presses the defenders? Soyuncu, outstanding, is being allowed to pick his passes like Tom Brady.
Torreira is off the pace.
Hector is off the pace.
Ozil isn’t having any influence on the game, because there no one knitting the back and the midfield, save Luiz.
Guendouzi is is not playing well (hasnt for a few weeks now), and the loss of Xhaka means that he probably cant be rotated. He persistently dwells on the ball in dangerous areas, and Leicester should have had a penalty when he tugged Soyuncu in the 10th minute. A like a bit of spikiness in a player. Matteo needs to lose a little bit of his.
Our shining lights have been David Luiz — who looks a world beater in a back 3 where he can Beckenbauer — and Calum Chambers who has mostly contained the Vardy threat, needs to be woke, and is.
Laca, Holding, both midfielders, Hector, Mesut. Any one of those can be subbed.
We used to score goals like that.
We looked good in the second half up to their first goal. Feel really bad for the players today.
Now, on to the international break…what will Arsenal do about Emery?
He has to go.
I dont feel any more bad for the players than the manager. The players are directly culpable.
Holding, Kolasinac and Guendouzi ALL stood off Gray — like pretty maids all in a row — watching him pass the ball into the box. No one looked to make a challenge or a tackle.
Yes, the debate over Emery is pretty much settled, but wtf was that defending?
Claude,
I used to agree with this sort of sentiment up until the Watford game.
Sure, you could comb through each game and find individual mistakes players have made , but ultimately it’s the cowardly Emery approach to football that sets the tone for the way we play.
That’s why I said it didn’t matter in my earlier comment.
The line up doesn’t matter.
Rodgers has Leicester playing top four football in half the time on half the budget.
You could only point to Ndidi as a clear upgrade on anyone Arsenal have in his respected position.
The main difference is coaching.
I disagree. You cant coach closing down a player. It’s what you learn at 11 years old. Chambers also switched off. He vacated his side the box, drawn to the ball, and left Vardy all alone for a tap in.
That’s not on Emery. That’s on the 4 players in question executing basic defence.
I don’t even know how we can have three central defenders and still lose their one and only striker in the box. #Help
Sorry brother but that’s nonsense.
Closing down a player is actually one of the few things you can coach players regardless of age and skill level.
Literally every PL club including the bottom feeders do this to Arsenal . Surely you aren’t saying Arsenal are less talented then the bottom of the table clubs.
So Emery needed to communicate in real time to the 3 players surrounding Gray (and then Ricardo) — Holding, Kolasinac and Guendouzi — that ONE of them needed to close down the man on the ball? Stop the ball coming in? That Holding needed to do more than stick out a diffident leg?
Come on, man.
Look, how is it that the Leicester players all knew when to close Arsenal down and press them into mistakes without Rodgers gesticulating frantically on the sidelines the Emery style?
Because they learn triggers and are proactive in their defending set up.
Arsenal are highly reactive and play a cowardly brand of football under Emery.
lol.
Gesticulating/communicating is tactics and shape.
Not “tackle him, Saed.” 😊
Chambers notoriously backs off the ball carrier inviting them into our penalty box before committing to a challenge, or sometimes not doing much of anything.
Why is that?
Is it because he’s been applying a passive approach to defending ,or is it because he can’t close them down and challenge for the ball when they first receive it?
You could probably justify this approach against a Zaha type of player who can skin and leave you for dead, although he can do you even worse in the penalty box( something Chambers knows all too well), but Chambers does the same thing against less tricky wingers too.
It’s definitely coaching.
frankly. It’s crazy we are even debating this.
(Have to chuckle…)
“Guess Emery is going to have problems with some fans this season.”
Full stop.
Some players need to look themselves in the mirror today.
Rob Holding, Alexandre Lacazette primarily. Im going to let off Guendouzi and Torreira on inexperience.
Let’s start with you, guys. What the hell was that?
Lacazette is our best forward pressing player. It’s unbelievable the number of times he stole the ball from Leicester players. I have to say that when your midfield is so callow, your forwards can only do so much. Sorry but Guen and Torreira get no pass from me.
He normally is, yes, but Laca was undiluted crap today. I did not see those steals you speak of. We had a 20 minute spell second half, then Soyuncu basically ran the game.
Rogers and Lampard are getting their teams to gel and play nice attacking Football. They don’t even have any major names in their teams. What they do have instead is a unified purpose, a team. Emery has a bunch of individuals playing together. Arsenal right now is not a team. They currently have no purpose because the coach has not really communicated it to them. For a change I am looking forward to international break because Arsenal are playing such dire football that I need a break from them.
We can’t be surprised at the result can we? We’ve all braced ourselves for some serious spanking and save for a few close shaves and the crossbar, the Foxes did bleed us to death with their pretty two lethal bites.
Sadly, it was more enjoyable watching the blues play tonight. Their interplay was excellent with the dynamic Tielemans and buzzing Maddison tearing away at our defence until we finally broke… and who else but our ex flame who continues to haunt us. Disheartening but very predictable result. Now the more difficult assessment is whether Raul / Edu / Jr puts and end to our nightmarish Ebening.
I am excited about the possibility of who the next coach hire is going to be. Luis Enrique’s name has come up. Come to think of it, I didn’t remember he is out of work and likely available.
He was my preferred choice to replace Arsene at the time.
This has truly been a mess. And everyone has contributed to it -the coach, the players, the management and the fans.
Özil has barely played. Lacazette is just coming back from injury and, I think, looked sharper than he has done – on the whole. Neither Holding nor Bellerín have played in the Premier League thus far this year. Oh, and Torreira has also been vastly underplayed, and often in the wrong position.
Add to that the relatively new shape, and an inevitable slump in form by Guendouzi (young player, etc etc) and you have a game in which, I think, the players did okay considering the circumstances. It’s a mess. Yes, the players take some of the blame, but I’m going with a minimum of the blame, as they’re being asked to do different things each week.
Brendan gave Wenger the ultimate complement by making Leicester play like a vintage Wenger’s Arsenal team. While Emery has turned us into an fake Leicester trying to play counter attacking Football. We suck at possession based Football and we cannot play fast counterattacking style as well. Wonder what stats Emery will like to highlight from his tenure with us because his record for 50 PL games is worse that Wenger’s last 50 games.
I’m sure Corners will be TOP of his stat list
Were Wenger’s Arsenal ever at a -1 GD after 12 matches?
Yeah. Thought not.
Unless the board think Emery is the ticket to CL through the Europa League then retaining him for financial reasons makes very little sense.
Arsenal will have paid him another 10 m remaining on his contract either way, apparently , might as well do it now .
Short on cash?
With interest rates at theses levels , borrow the money and make it 10.4m.
Freddie is already on Arsenal payroll, how much worse could he do?
Can someone fluent in Spanish tell me wtf is Emery on about when he mentions “moments”? His moment, our moment, their moment, in a good moment, in a bad moment. I think he uses that word randomly when he doesn’t know the English word for it. He is totally using that word wrongly and it seems like no one is bothering to correct him from the club.
I don’t think anyone from the board would think after Chelsea’s battering and the current form we would be able to achieve another final and had a good chance of winning.
We have a relegation form right now. Having two great strikers we aren’t able to create more than 1 chance per game. Passing routine is shambles if any exists. Every team dominates the middle of the park against us. No player has made a progress. We have promising youth but does Per/Edu/Raul think our coach can develop them?
There is no way back for Emery now. He knows he is a dead man walking. His pre- and post conferences are full of excuses.
Sacked till the Monday morning. Hope the board will choose the next manager wisely.