Sleep with one eye open

Poor result for the Arsenal today as Burnley were able to control large sections of the game with a simple low-block approach.

Burnley’s strategy was just to clog the box and force Arsenal into frustrating lofted crosses. That’s exactly what happened. Some folks will point to the number of shots taken and Arsenal did get 20 shots but 17 of them were low-quality chances. Arsenal were only able to generate 1 shot in prime (and it was a header) and 1 big chance (which wasn’t really a big chance).

Arsenal’s two best chances of the game were both because of Emile Smith Rowe. Smith Rowe was able to get a shot off from a corner which was an obviously well-drilled set piece by the Gunners. The shot forced a save from Pope but it was a much better looking shot than a statistically good shot because Burnley had 5 players between the shot and the goal. In fact, statistically, it was lucky it didn’t get blocked.

The big chance in this match was created by Smith Rowe. He drove past his marker and played a drag back to Lacazette who was being closed down, so he had to rush his shot and hit it with the outside of his right foot. Again, it was a shot which looked like a better chance than it actually was but it was the best chance of the game.

For large portions of the game, Arsenal were just shown wide and despite the statistical dominance the match was largely a snooze-fest. Fans at the game were actually so quiet at one point that it was literally like a library.

That said, it’s not the end of the world for Arsenal. A third of our games are going to be easy, a third will be boring, and a third will be difficult. This was just one of the boring ones.

Arsenal now have two weeks (actually 19 days) off and obvious problems in key areas on the pitch. We still need a world class striker – given Auba’s been sent to Gulag – and a top quality midfielder. Chances seem slim that we will actually get those two players in and unless we do, we will be trying to get into 4th place with one hand tied behind our backs.

Qq

37 comments

  1. Beats me that Auba can’t get into this squad.whatever issue aside he will complement Eddie and laca.hilding should have been subbed never Smith, create chaos just like Wenger

  2. The Auba thing is a problem. If he’s truly been sent to Siberia, and we can’t pick up another senior, experienced striker in the next week, we have a problem.
    Pepe should help keep Saka from getting so wiped out, but none of the current options offer a good solution for scoring down the middle. I appreciate Lacazette’s willingness and effort, but he’s not getting the scoring part done.
    There’s a need in midfield, but it feels like we can muddle through that. The CF scoring(or not) is going to be the difference between us challenging for 4th or maybe squeaking into Europe in 7th.

  3. Tim. Thanks for the review. I agree with your assessment that it was a bit of a yawner.

    PL seasons are full of ups and downs. It was inevitable the great run of form we saw after Everton would fade away at some point. To me the single biggest problem is still a lack of goal scoring firepower. Our starting CF is on pace to score only 5.4 goals this entire season and we don’t have a high scoring wide forward like Sanchez or Salah who can compensate for the lack of production from our CF. Even with the run of relatively high scoring games after Everton our 3 starting forwards are on pace to score a total of only 23.5 goals this season. Suggesting that Auba might help is probably not realistic given his drastically declining production in the last 1 1/2 years and Pepe certainly is not the answer. I don’t believe the problem is or ever was the manager putting a tactical handbrake on the players. Finishing in the top 4 is not very likely when your squad lacks the needed firepower. I agree with your assessment that we need a world class striker. I actually think we need to add 2 goal scorers if we really want to take the next step

  4. It’s not the end of the world but it is 2 points dropped. 1 win in the last 5 vs Burnley.

    For all the talk of the need for a new striker and midfielder, (1) no one was calling for them in December and (2) they’re mostly self inflicted problems (bans or exiles).

    Hoping that a world class player or two is available, willing to join and will suddenly solve these problems is fanciful.

    Zero goals in the last 4 matches. 1 clear cut chance today. Ramsdale was right. These are tactical problems. This season against the traditional top six (3/18 in the league, 4/24 all comps). When Arteta loses 2 matches in a row he defaults to defence-first.

  5. Congrats to Enos and and Josh’s NFL franchise — Arsenal FC’s stablemate the LA Rams — for making the divisional finals, and being one step away from the Super Bowl. They had to weather a late surge from the great Tom Brady to do it.

    Missed the game today, but caught most of the Rams/Bucs game, funny enough. Given everything, I regard that as a good point for Arsenal. This was a tougher fixture than many imagined.

    The break is well timed. Players like Laca and Saka need it, and Emile needs it to fully mend.

    Marcos mentions Auba. Looks like the plan was to go game by game till the harder fixtures, buy some time with AFCON, and buy a striker in the window. I just wish we wouldn’t do things backwards. Deal with the bird in the hand before we start dreaming of the one in the bush. It is quite possible that we won’t move Auba, or sign a new striker. Which makes me wonder — again — about this rolling punishment. Unless he did a Benzema/Valbuena, he should be handed a fixed punishment and reintegrated. That’s not the same as arguing that he should start… but he can definitely play a part. When it comes to games in the winter, it’s all about squad, and squad depth.

  6. Matt.

    Do you really believe Arteta’s tactical plans today was defense first and attack by pumping in a bunch of crosses? No way that was what happened. I suspect the game played out the way it did because we were not able to execute the game plan the way it was drawn up and floating in a bunch of crosses is what you do when you can’t break down the defense.

    1. Yep Bill I do, that’s why I wrote it. What are Burnley really good at? Defending. Look at the stats from the game. They dominated duels and made lots of blocks. That’s what they do well EVERY game.

      Being simplistic there’s three things broadly you can do:

      – Try and pull them out of their defensive shape (through dribbling, quick passes and movement)
      – Force them into errors (tackle fouls, handballs, etc) which hopefully yield opportunities for free kicks or even penalties
      – Or ‘hail mary’ such as throwing in cross after cross in the hope an Arsenal player gets on the end of one (BTW this is an extremely low yield strategy and of the 34 crosses only 3 found an Arsenal player).

      In the post match presser Arteta said the problem wasn’t creation but execution (he’s wrong, it was both) referring to the many crosses. So there is absolutely no doubt these were the instructions Arteta gave the players.

      Honestly I don’t understand your comments. You demonstrate such a lack of understanding of football and rather than offer an alternative theory just simply say you don’t agree with everyone or you don’t believe what’s been said. Just saying the players didn’t execute the game plan is so bland, especially as you don’t know what the coach’s game plan is. Some of us do because we watch and analyse the game and afterwards the coach or players explicitly or implicitly confirm it.

  7. Squad management is going to cost us a top 4 finish this season, which is a shame, because this was our best shot.

  8. All our chances, bar one, came from individual play. the first time there was some good passing, we saw Burnley opened up. Other times it was just Saka going past people, or ESR’s play. Laca did well with the dribble run he made in the first half. As for that chance, I’m honestly tired of people making a huge deal of missed chances where it’s like the one real chance there is all game, and is a tougher chance than they make it appear anyway. Giroud would have scored that though. Near post flick ons were his thing.

    I had half an eye on the Palace game, and that was fun. I would pay attention Vieira as a manager next season too to see how he carries on over there, with an eye to bringing him back to the Arsenal.

    I was half expecting the Burnley result and performance. Arteta perpetually seems to need everything in the Goldilocks zone for him to not need excuses. We are so far away from that right now, in no small part because of him, but we’ll probably reward him with a new contract.

    Something I’ve been tracking all season is how we do compared to the same fixtures last season, and currently we’re 1 point worse off (Varies slightly depending on how you sub the relegated and promoted teams of course) We’ll probably do better on some results, particularly those coming up (We got 4 points from the next 5) but top 4? I’m not even dreaming of it.

    1. Really interesting we’re 1 point off vis-a-vis last season. If you strip out the first 3 games, the team are averaging 2 points per game (which is very good).

      Continue the current season’s run rate and we end at 65 points which was enough for 6th in 2020/21, 5th in 2019/20 and 7th in 2018/19.

      1. “If you strip out the first 3 games,”

        If you strip out all our losses we are actually averaging 2.6 ppg, that’s a 97 point pace. We are going to win the League!

      2. It’s already Arsenal’s shortest season for 30+ years. Why are we stripping more games out?

  9. Lokonga did not show for passes from defense into midfield so we never got going through the middle. The most essential position to improve remains the base of midfield. Have to get someone in who can receive, retain, turn, and pass forward. Partey a disappointment so far. Xhaka has never been quality required.

  10. Matt.

    Why would a manager who watched his team play so well in December shift his tactics to defense first and focus the attack on sending in crosses when he is playing against the 20th place team in the league? No manager gets every decision right but believing that Arteta and his entire coaching staff are just plain stupid and would make that sort of decision is letting his dislike of Arteta cloud his judgement.

    You mentioned that no one thought we needed new players in December but judging players based on a short run of good form and dismissing what they had done before seems like we are ignoring the lessons we should have learned watching football for the last 15 years. Laca played well in December but so did the whole team and everyone looks like world beaters when the team is playing like that. For example, Laca has played >10,500 minutes in 4 1/2 years with Arsenal and just focusing just on what he did in December completely ignores the roughly 10,000 previous minutes of his being mostly underwhelming and that seems like a lack of understanding at least to me.

    1. Bill,

      I’ve seen other posters raise this with you before.. stop making stuff up. No one said Arteta or his coaching team are stupid. But ask yourself this? 34 crosses. Many of them from the wings (often the player nearest to the technical area). Do you think if Arteta didn’t want them to keep crossing he might have just said that to one of the players? I mean it’s not like he’s taken a vow of silence when he enters the technical area.

      I don’t understand your point about December. Maybe re-read what I wrote and let me know what you mean.

  11. 3 weeks ago a lot of us were suggesting that dropping Auba and putting Laca at CF was the catalyst for changing the way we played. Now 4 games later we are talking about needing to get Auba back. Haven’t we seen that focusing on a short run of good or bad games and ignoring the much larger sample size usually gives the wrong answer.

  12. Looks like Dembele is leaving Barcelona. Is he a forward Arsenal should be interested in?

    1. That’s a good question but raises another question for me: can Arsenal afford to take chances on players?

      1. Short answer…no. At least not at the salary Dembele apparently wants, which is up in Ozil/Auba land. He’s asking for wayyy too much given how little he’s played and produced for Barca.

    2. Not for me.
      Done with players who consider Arsenal a stepdown and a fallback club.
      Follow the Liverpool model. Buy from smaller clubs ……..players on the up.
      Of course not having a Klopp type doing the convincing makes it a lot harder…..case in point Vlahovic.

      1. Convincing and, maybe more critically – coaching. We compare to Liverpool without acknowledging that Salah, Mane et al didn’t come in there world beaters. Klopp improved them (albeit probably with more caffeine than a responsible doctor would recommend).

        I’m struggling to find an Arsenal player that’s overpeforming his transfer price or his reputation coming out of the academy. Ironic that when we’re finally willing to spend money, it’s on the manager least likely to maximise it.

  13. BILL: “3 weeks ago a lot of us were suggesting that dropping Auba and putting Laca at CF was the catalyst for changing the way we played. Now 4 games later we are talking about needing to get Auba back.”

    Squad, depth and options, Bill. Squad, depth and options. The argument was not to have him regularly starting games again.

    Question. If Auba is still at the club after the window closes, what do you propose that we do with him through to May?

    1. This is exactly it. I don’t think anyone views Auba as the long-term striker solution. But if he’s still on the books and we’re still struggling to score, isn’t it worth trying to get something out of him? Particularly since if he wants to stay with a better team in Europe at a good salary, he should be pretty motivated to play well.
      The Dec performance from Laca and the youngsters was probably a case of overperforming. I don’t think we can expect ESR in particular to be scoring at a goal/match.

    2. C’mon Claude. Auba’s in his 30s. He’s a busted flush 😂

      If he can’t get a move this window there’s going to have to be some marriage guidance sessions.

      1. Get the counselor in, then 🙂

        Squad, man. Squad. He’s a paid Arsenal player. Use him. If he still here after the window, issue a fixed punishment and be over with the issue. Like Tuchel did. Like other managers have.

        And while we’re talking to the counselor, let’s bring in the priest or juju man, to pray that Laca (or a number of forwards at the same time) doesn’t get injured. Squad, Matt. Squad.

        We cant keep on going through life freezing out our highest earner 🙂

        Serious question. Burnley’s blocking you out, and it isnt happening for Laca. Who’d you rather sub into the game at 70 minutes, Auba or Nketiah?

        1. No brainer Claude. I’d like to think they can make up but it’s been a while now..

          In other news did you see our French amigos are performing well? Guendouzi was MOTM. And the wee man in Italy scored a goal.

          1. What are you on about? Haven’t you heard that we have no midfielders apart from Xhaka, Partey and Sambi? 🙂

            Ah. Guendouzi. I forgot. Isn’t he the fella that Jack was telling us wasn’t that good?

            Guen, actually, would walk into an Arsenal XI. I watch Ligue 1 games, and the only midfielder who I’d rank above him is Partey. And you know what? He’s more consistent than Partey. I say this knowing full well that he’s not coming back. Too many bridges burned.

            Btw, do you remember who was the pundits and analysts Man of the Match against Watford in early November? Clue: Arteta hailed him after that game as a player transformed… but he didn’t kick a ball for us afterwards, and Elneny was subsequently picked ahead of him. Clue #2. He was tooling around Rome on a Vespa (I kid), while Arteta was subbing on a jetlagged Partey against Liverpool, while bemoaning our player shortage. You couldn’t make this stuff up.

            Mikel will be with us a long time. It looks like he’s got a board prepared to back him. But he needs a lot of work on managing his resources.

  14. Bill’s right about one thing… Laca has never been particularly prolific. He may link play like a world beater, but he has to score goals. If he doesnt, you have problem. It’s why Auba off the bench — if he’s still at the club after next week — is a sensible and pragmatic option off the bench.

    Looks like Juve made a move for Vlahovic. Dr. Gooner was right… they all go to Juventus (and Bayern in Germany). I also think his description of the player was spot on. Van Persie meets Giroud, if I remember correctly. The guy’s a stud. But he’s looking less likely to be our stud.

    Here’s a really smart take on the strikers that Arsenal are targeting.

    1. Auba was the last world class signing for Arsenal. One of those where the rest of the league go Wow! We’re not on the radar of the top class players until we become a team that’s competing for titles. Which means we’re shopping in the second tier and hoping they excel.

  15. Mikel spotted with Stan Kroenke watching the Avalanche in the NHL. New contract for the manager? Budgets for transfers? Matt Turner signing? Find out in the continuing saga of Arsenal’s mid season winter break.

  16. Vlahovic was never going to come to Arsenal – his own statements last autumn were clear enough. We were simply being used by his agents to prepare the way for Juve.

    The smart money is now on a Luka Jovic loan deal possibly with an option as DCL is too difficult to prise away from Everton this month and Isak is far too expensive for unproven potential – we cannot waste another £70m plus top level wages on a promising one season wonder.

    Unless Jovic comes and proves himself in the PL as Ødegaard did, DCL is by far the best option for a summer striker acquisition – PL proven, mobile, links well, leads the line well, good goal scoring record. Balogun can provide back up but unless we think Martinelli is ready to move centrally (I don’t think so yet), we probably need another option. We may of course still have Auba (who is going to pick up that salary?). If he doesn’t leave this week, the hatchets should be buried asap and he should be re-integrated into the squad as a striking option for as long as he’s on the payroll.

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