There were a few weeks this fall, when Arsenal were in her Doldrums, simply floating in the still ocean of mediocrity like the Pequod in her hunt for Moby Dick, where the journalists and podcast presenters from all of the major news outlets had little to nothing to say about the Arsenal. The thrill of reporting “Arsenal were off to their worst ever start to a Premier League campaign” had worn off and the North London Derby had come and gone – which was largely reported as “when will Nuno get the sack?” There was very little to report, Arsenal had no controversies, we weren’t quite winning enough to matter, and the results weren’t spectacular: Arsenal had become a nothingburger. And so, we dropped off the reporters’ radar and they literally didn’t even mention the Arsenal match one week. It was as if it hadn’t happened.
The mentions, of course, perked back up as soon as Arsenal climbed back into top four contention. A big winning streak, some hefty results, and suddenly everyone wanted to know about these plucky little upstarts from the borough of Islington.
And now, after an impressive late-fall run Arsenal are fully back in the news. Results are being dissected, players are praised (and pummeled), and questions are being asked about whether Arsenal are really top four material. And along with this new spotlight on and off the field, Arsenal are also back in the news because they had the temerity to ask the Premier League to apply the same COVID postponement rules they have applied to Leicester, Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves, Man U, and Liverpool.
The League’s COVID rules are what they are. They are there, clearly, to protect the broadcasters and media coverage of the games. The logic behind the rules is that NBC, Amazon, Sky, and others are paying to show the “best league in the world” which means that they want the best players on the field. If teams are decimated by COVID (plus injuries, AFCON, etc.) you could end up with matches which resemble more of an U21 tournament rather than “THE PREMIER LEAGUE”.
For many of us, that would be fine and could even be fun, interesting, and a break from the mundane. And this seems to be the take of many reporters at the moment – those who are crying out “play the kids!” But the only problem is that the pandemic doesn’t strike all teams equally. Some clubs will have to play their U21s and others will play their first team lineups. There’s also squad depth to consider. There are a lot of clubs for whom the drop off in quality from starting lineup to U21 is actually untenable. Imagine if the rule wasn’t lenient and Burnley had to play their U21 team against a full-strength Liverpool, Arsenal, or Man City side. Let me guess what the pundit’s response would be then.. “this is just unfair.”
And they are right, it would be unfair. Even more unfair than the way the Premier League already works, where sovereign nations can use their filthy oil money to utterly decimate the entire concept of competition. Certain teams will always have an advantage over others but with the League as imbalanced as it is and with the uncertainty of COVID it only makes sense that all of the teams, the league, and even the broadcasters would agree to at least pretend that they cared about the integrity of the game and allowed teams to petition for postponement if their squad numbers dipped below a certain threshold.
Of course, it’s entirely predictable that Arsenal would be the first team to “only” have one COVID case when they applied. And of course this would cause the exact right amount of outrage and pearl clutching by sports reporters who are always looking for a big “controversy” to latch onto to make their utterly boring, facile, and meaningless jobs seem important.
Remember, folks, that sports reporters are people who are paid to literally just write down what someone else has said. With just a few exceptions (whose writing clearly stands out in the field) their job is to know someone at a club (or hey, more than one person) and ingratiate themselves on that person so that they can get scoops.
Liverpool also only had one COVID case, but they had a bunch of “false positives” – a story which no one seems able or willing to dig into. On its face, this is actually probably a big story. The odds of having several false positives are astronomical. Was there a failure at the manufacturers? Was there a problem with the way that the tests were administered? So many angles here that could and probably should be looked into.
But for the most part, sports reporters aren’t doing that kind of investigation or even hardly any original research. They aren’t inventing data collection methods, they aren’t even using new tools like stats until literally everyone else is doing it. In fact, the opposite: they openly ridicule all of those things until they become so popular and ubiquitous that they can’t make fun anymore. Their job is to go to press conferences and write down what someone said. They write down what they saw in a game. They ask someone at the club for a comment on a topic and write that comment down. Then they go to the pub, have a few pints, and rub elbows with their other friends in the press. They are literally just paid for their access to a club and the reason why so few of them want to do any real reporting or investigating is because they would lose their access.
And so, in lieu of any real reporting we get stuff like what’s happened this week. Arsenal rightly ask for a postponement, their first request of the season, and the Premier League correctly award them one and all the sudden we have journalists pontificating on the state of the game, worrying if the children will ever want to play football again, and demanding that the League change the rules immediately.
The funny thing is that this would have been another nothingburger if it wasn’t Arsenal and if Arsenal weren’t in 5th place. Burnley, for example, have played just 17 matches of the 22 match season because of COVID postponements. Tottenham and Leicester have only played 18. Spurs had a week off to bed in their new manager and no one said a thing!
This is just what happens to big clubs who are playing well. Everything they do goes under the macroscope (Premier League reporters don’t have a microscope, lol) to be talked about in the most banal and anodyne way possible by people who haven’t had an original thought in their careers. These are people who talk a lot, constantly, they can’t stop talking, but they sure don’t say much.
But it’s fine with me. All this talk from people who wouldn’t normally even register Arsenal just means that Arsenal are back, baby! In fact, I hope we ask to postpone the return leg of the League cup against Liverpool. Imagine if Arsenal asked to have a game against the journalists’ favorite team postponed? The sanctimony would probably swallow the earth whole.
The rules clearly need changing.
I would argue that if you cannot field 13 outfield players + a goalie from your official 25 player registration, you should be allowed to get a game postponed, Covid or not. There should be a 24hr rule to apply (so traveling fans are not impacted by a last minute postponement), but if a team cannot field the minimum due to injury, postponed. I’d like to see that as a permanent feature of the league going forward.
It’s as you say, it should maybe be about having the best product out on the field. Teams should not be expected to use the Academy kids (some of whom could be mentally scarred by too-early exposure to a top-flight game).
Wouldn’t it be right though that Spurs also be allowed to say that Arsenal would have been without Partey, Pepe, Aubameyang, Elneny and Xhaka for the game and as such, those players should not be allowed to participate in the re-scheduled match? I would see the logic in that argument.
You’re right that the modern iteration of the sports reporter is quote farmer. And when theyre not quote farming, they’re tweeting… a lot of it sophomoric hot takes. You don’t want sports reporters playing Jeremy Paxman or Chris Wallace at press conferences, but you do want them asking truly inquiring questions, and making life uncomfortable sometimes. A few things I can think of off the topof my head… Liverpool’s false positives and possible sanctions for fakery, asking Arteta about his unjust rolling punishment for Arteta (one reporter actually sang him a parody Christmas song at a presser), and the system of accountability for referees.
All that said, Arsenal were fortunate in having its request (and other clubs in having theirs) approved. It went against both the letter and spirit of the policy. Im not going to lie… as a gooner, Im relieved by that outcome, because the impact of the Liverpool match was costly. My hunch is that we succeeded in part because the suits knew that Liverpool did us a dirty with their postponement. If that is the case, that was an astutely timed request.
Then again, we had fresh legs to harry City on New Year’s Day, because we benefited from a postponement of the Wolves game on Dec 28th — a benefit that City did not gain. The policy is a mess, and as Jack says, begs for consistency, clarity and well-defined parameters. Football is not going to do like the NBA and hire semi-retired blokes to 10-day “hardship contracts” as fillers for sick players just so that the show must go on. But the FA needs clarity on this, because clubs that dont have real need (or find themselves in self-inflicted problems like Arsenal did in part) are going to try it on.
Much as Im a supporter of this club, I have to say that we were fortunate with that “yes”. I see selective amnesia and pious pontification of journos as separate from that. Twas ever thus.
It didn’t go against any spirit or letter of the policy.
Exactly. Spirit and letter? Please. I can accept spirit maybe, but this is a high stakes business. Only a clown car of buffoons would not do the rational thing.
I agree with Claude, it went against the spirit (not the letter)… which is absolutely fine by me. The rule says you can apply for a postponement if covid is a factor, not that you’re guaranteed one – so the regulator has applied discretion in our favour at long blooming last.
Of course Liverpool’s shenanigans factored into it. If the league had brains they would’ve penalised them either the game or financially as soon as Klopp casually mentions an overwhelming statistical improbability at a press conference. (which seems like a sly attempt to get out ahead of an inconvenient story btw)
There are/were people like Bob Costas, Frank DeFord, Phillipe Auclair, Jonathan Wilson, Sara Orchard and Dana Jacobson who take their craft seriously and do seriously good work and then there’s most of the rest.
I wish sports reporting in general was in a better state today. Reactionary click bait is what passes too much for real reporting, real stories. Perhaps the idea of “real stories” is an anachronism? People seem to have little time and no attention span.
+1 👏🏽
Jonathan Liew is really good as well and there are a lot of actual investigative journalists in the world but they are vastly overshadowed by scribes and former players who are LARPING as journalists.
+1.
Liew is excellent. There are several others at places like the The Times, The Guardian, Wash Po, NYT, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Cleveland Plain Dealer, The Globe and Mail, etc.
One of the world’s great English language dailies is the Times of India – great sports reporting there too, especially if you follow cricket.
I stan Jonathan Liew ever since he raised and pursued the story of racism in cricket, including calmly and carefully pointing out all the ways that as a British Asian journalist he had been racially abused and discriminated against by the rest of the press, including high profile pundits and commentators.
I dont care about cricket (sorry Claude) but it was so good to read someone with integrity and courage write like that.
I havent read that, Greg. I’ll go try and find it. Thanks for that.
Perhaps I’ll revise my view of Liew, which so far is that’s he more of a stylist, and he can turn a phrase. Which is not bad thing, but I havent yet appreciated his investigative, deep-drill chops. Perhaps that’s on me. I’m not fond of what I see as a tendency to over-write, but Im open to changing my mind.
Andy Bull, David Corn and Jonathan Wilson don’t write as prettily but I much prefer reading their work as sports journos.
Ken Early for the Irish Times is in a class of 1!
+1. Enjoy his appearances on Arseblog.
For me he’s comfortably the best football writer. Great writer, dry Irish humor and insightful beyond his peers.
“The Premier League football is a game where you run around very fast for 90 minutes and at the end Man City win, even when they aren’t playing.”
An absolute classic from Ken Early
http://josimarfootball.com/
I recommend this site to anyone who has deep interest in the game. You may not find each and every story of particular individual interest but i believe it’s good to always expand one’s horizons and expose yourself to new stories and topics through sound journalism.
Speaking of investigative journalism…. Let’s look at the players Arsenal have available. The 25 man squad:
Ramsdale Leno Okonkwo
Tomiyasu Cedric Chambers
White Holding
Gabriel Mari
Tierney Tavares Kolasinac
Partey Xhaka Sambi ElNeny
Saka Pepe Smith-Rowe Odegaard
Aubameyang Martinelli
Nketiah Lacazette
Arsenal’s players who were fit and available for selection:
Ramsdale Leno Okonkwo
Chambers
White Holding
Gabriel Mari
Tierney Tavares Kolasinac
Sambi
Martinelli
Nketiah Lacazette
That is 12 players + one of three GK.
Xhaka missing through suspension.
Aubameyang, Partey, Pepe, ElNeny missing through AFCON.
Tomiyasu, ESR and Odegaard in COVID protocols.
Cedric, Kolasinac and Saka injured.
That’s 11 missing for various reasons plus the two extra goalkeepers makes 13.
So over half our squad could not play in an outfield position. That’s why the request was approved. The furore reminds me of anytime an Arsenal player simulates a little too much and then half the league is howling for punishment. Unlike every time one of their own players does it.
That’s why teams have academies, reserves and age-squads, Doc. It’s next man up.
We have 3 international calibre players out on loan in midfield alone, one of whom we sent to Italy the same week that we pleaded a case of poverty.
The current provision was intended to clubs through a Covid surge. Xhaka’s absence was self inflicted. The club chose to send AMN on loan that very week. I’ve seen you raving about Azeez… he is now being recalled due to a lack of action at Portsmouth. He’s not the only player you failed to take account of. Remember Patino who scored our 5th goal against Sunderland, and played against Forest? You didnt count him.
Squads are in various stages of depletion all the time, but particularly at this time of the year. This isnt new. We had enough players to call on for an XI and for bench duty. The FA mad a rod for its own back. Their current leniency is unsustainable. We tried it on, and we were successful.
But look, if I may put on my gooner goggles for a moment, Im glad that we did not go into an NLD having to have a bench full of kids, and that it we could get some relief in our push for 4th.
Per my comment above, teams should not be required to a) rely on Academy kids to backfill positions or b) try to time loans to ensure enough players… if you start beating teams with loaners over the head, they should have the right to emergency recall them for one or two games… but what does that do to the loanee?
Make it so there is a hard 25 man roster. You can supplement with youth players at a team’s discretion, but when measuring the ability of a team to play, it should be simply do they have enough players from their 25 man roster. There’s such a disparity in academy programs that I think such a policy would help the smaller teams actually. Take Brentford for example – I don’t even think they have a proper academy program.
But Arsenal do! And it’s extensive, structured and packed with talent. And you should be accountable for loaners. You cant give away your food then plead hunger.
Look, Arsenal aren’t Brentford, but the FA needs to have a policy that is consistent and clear. It has opened a can of worms, and it’s going to have to start refusing postponements to teams with similar circumstances that Arsenal presented.
Even die-hard gooners who bleed Arsenal read are admitting that we tried it on and got away with it.
I’m not against bringing Academy kids into the team, I actually all for it. If you have a limited number of 1st team players, the rest of the 18 man gameday roster should be kids, and if the coach wants to play them, all good.
What I’m saying is the measure of whether a team has enough to play a game should be whether we have 14 players from our 1st team 25. I believe that would be a more “equitable” system that the smaller clubs could cope with. All credit to Bielsa for playing seven teenagers this year so far, but I don’t think he should have to.
Just playing devil’s advocate here (as I’m in the zero postponement; give the kids a chance camp). Bielsa beat Wham on Sunday with their kids. He’s given more debuts than any other club this season and Leeds are easily the youngest team in the league.
Much is made of how young this Arsenal side are but ALL of the younger players (Saka, ESR, Martinelli, Nketiah) established in the first team under previous managers.
In two years Arteta hasn’t brought any of academy players through (unless you count one game for Patino).
Played, yes … established, no.
Somewhat disingenuous to argue that Arteta didn’t bring them through just because they’d played for the first team before
Why’s that disingenuous Peter? Facts are all of those players were given their debuts and established in the first team under Emery and Freddie. Look at the team sheets for Arteta’s first phase of games. He certainly didn’t give the kids a chance, Show me one academy graduate under Arteta.
Arsenal are actually the youngest team in the League.
Bein Sports have six teams with an average of under 24 years with Leeds lowest. I’m not sure of their methodology but it looks up-to-date. Other outlets often refer to ave age at the start of the season (Arsenal ranked #1 youngest).
https://www.beinsports.com/en/premier-league/statistics
Exactly. I am very relieved but quite embarrassed!
I think the argument goes that xhaka shouldn’t be counted as an absence as he is suspended. However after the false positives fiasco I couldn’t care less about the rules. Maybe they should have added a limit to the number of games a team can postpone in a season as false positives will always be a temptation to get out of a game you don’t fancy playing
I’m so confused by this false positive nonsense. The more I think about it, the more I am convinced it was a genuine error – contaminated tests or something. As an excuse anyone with half a brain would know it just wouldn’t fly. It’s far too stupid.
I don’t know what the right policy is. I think the policy is maybe overly lenient, in that the language is very lazy. Ok, what’s done is done, fix it for next time, i.e. next season.
What I would love to see is something like if you have 3 vaccinated COVID players out, you may postpone. It’s not perfect, but the point is if a player is unvaccinated they are taking a risk, and a club by extension is taking a risk with them. If they get sick, that’s on them. I’m tired of antivax nonsense.
i concur with claude concerning this. while i’m not upset that arsenal utilized the loophole that’s been provided, i’m disappointed that they had to. as claude alluded to, arsenal have torreira, guendouzi, and niles out on loan…and then they want to snivel and cry about not having enough center mids fit and available? nuts!
arsenal do have enough players. the management of the arsenal player roster should be arsenal’s problem alone, not the league’s. like claude alluded to, these three gentlemen are not academy or u21 players. they have all been called up for their senior national team. we all knew the afcon was coming up so why send those players out on loan? arsenal have a management problem, not a covid problem.
you guys can say i’m blaming management again, which i am, but i don’t care. this is the duty of management. if they’re not getting something as simple as this right, what are they doing right?
I agree. As much as being on the right side of a rule fracas has been loads of fun, it’s genuinely bizarre how you can spend as much as we did and still not field 14 with one covid case.
If nothing else, more than half of Jan had gone when Xhaka picked up his inevitable red. Clubs around Europe are desperate for a bit of cash, what’s stopping us from getting a mediocre quick cheap loan in first day of Jan? Unless we actually sign Tielemans this window (difficult), I don’t know what Arteta/Edu think they’re playing at.
“you guys can say i’m blaming management again, which i am, but i don’t care”.
Hey Josh, love the defiance 🙂
But you dont need to defend yourself on this. I think one can both support the team and look at this issue dispassionately. I dont see that as blaming the management
Let me be clear…
I’m surprised that we got the game called off; but
Im glad/relieved that we got the game called off 👈🏽
Our case for postponement — to me — was not a good one…
… but I’m taking the W
The policy has holes, and clubs will test it
This isnt an attack on the Arsenal management (whom I do not blame for testing the limits of a vague FA policy)… it is a dispassionate look at the issue
Read somewhere someone saying it would be delicious twist of fate if we played the delayed game with Vlahovic in the side; although Jack has an intriguing take on who should and shouldnt play
None of those three wanted to play for Arsenal. If we could have found buyers for Guendouzi and Torreira this past summer, we would have sold them. AMN had a chance to escape and I’m guessing he’s the one who pushed the issue to go when he did.
You cannot make decisions about loaning players out on the basis of they MIGHT be needed. And if they’re not needed after all? Then you’ve got a) discontented players that were looking for more playing time and/or b) players who could have gotten more playing time elsewhere and improved their development.
Arteta and Edu could not have foreseen this injury/covid issue in January 2022 back in August 2021 when they let Torreira and Guendouzi go out on loan.
And might I remind people – Torreira and Guendouzi… not great players. I know Guendouzi gets a lot of love on this site, why I don’t know, he was a worse player than Dani Ceballos but of the same mold – slow, dribbles too much, passing accuracy was poor, couldn’t tackle, out of position all the time. Torreira was too small and slow for the Premier League.
“None of those three wanted to play for Arsenal”.
That’s not accurate. Nor (more importantly) is it the point. But whatever, it is patently not true in the case of Guen or AMN. Guen’s stance has shifted as it’s become clearer that Mikel isnt going anywhere, and he can’t stand him. But he did not want to leave. In AMN’s case, there’s a difference between not wanting to play for the club and not getting opportunities.
But to me that is beside the point. Which is that Arsenal’s FIRST TEAM shortages are self inflicted; and the club has serious depth of reserves and resources to overcome the shortages against Spurs.
As for what Arteta and Edu couldn’t have forseen, it’s not about Arteta and Edu… it’s about the club as a whole. In any case, why are you giving them a pass for the timing of the sale of AMN? Not the loan… the timing of it. Timing made more egregious by a tournament (AFCON) that they knew about years ago.
Finally, your assessment of Guendouzi (a much improved player who has made the France squad) is flat out laughable. You should watch Ligue 1 before coming out with stuff like that. He’s the best and most effective Arsenal registered player after Partey. You dont have to like him for that to be true.
None of what I said is making case for Guendouzi’s return. That ship has sailed, and Im fine with that. But let’s get our facts straight, mate.
Im getting strong AKB vs WOB vibes, Jack. I hope we gooners never return to that.
The request to the FA board for a postponement was an executive one, not a management one. Management had an input obviously, but this was handled by the suits.
So there is no blame to attach to Mikel, as far as I am concerned. What do you think critics of the postponement are blaming him for anyway? Seeking the best scheduling outcome for him team? Dang, any coach would want that.
All Im saying is that Arsenal put forward a weak case, and we got a favourable outcome. Maybe the Liverpool one had an effect (im guessing it did, but i cant know for sure).
We dont need to go AKB/WOB on this.
Josh is clearly saying that management is at fault for letting those three go out on loan and not having the foresight to see they MIGHT be short in midfield FOR THREE WEEKS in January and this kerfuffle about needing to ask for a postponement is on them. To me, it smacks of just more desperate reaching for reasons to slam Arteta and Edu.
I’m getting annoyed at the constant searching for sticks to beat our management with. Arteta is our manager, he’s young and learning, but he’s getting results. Edu, since he’s been clear of Don Raul, has done a solid job of recruiting and there’s finally a clear vision that we haven’t had since circa 2012 after which even Wenger lost his way.
I think I’ll just take a break from here for a long while. Even when it’s positive, there are those who are just desperate to find fault. Watch, if Vlahovic signs there will be moaning about that too. Peace.
you’re right, jack. i’m being critical of a seemingly poor decision by the arsenal management team. sure, it may work out but it would be down to dumb luck, not good management.
me saying critical things doesn’t mean i’m in the MOB (mikel out brigade). but this is 7am and you know how we get down on this forum. i’m not hunting for an excuse to disparage the arsenal management team but i’m not going to give them a pass because they’re young or because of dumb luck. if they wanted a pass, they shouldn’t be at arsenal.
imagine if the fa told arsenal to go f*ck themselves and they had to play the game on sunday. it’s hard enough to beat tottenham when we’ve got everybody. the young boys would likely have gotten absolutely slapped and it would have been on management. imagine the comments then; they would be numerous and the tenor would have made my post sound very pg-13.
btw, you don’t need to take a break. stop being dramatic. it’s just a football blog.
…and i’m not anti-arteta or anti-edu. i loved both guys as players. in fact, the last arsenal shirt i bought was an ma8 jersey and i’ve spoken numerous times about arteta as a tactician. as well as i speak about arteta as a tactician, i speak just as strongly about arteta as a manager.
Jack’s been here longer than many if not most of us, and I hope that he sticks around. The argument that Arsenal are (PARTIALLY AT LEAST) architects of their own player shortage isn’t without merit, imo. It isnt driven by “haters” (dislike the term), or people who have an agenda. Always better to address folks’ actual arguments.
(I loved Arteta the player. As someone who has a love preference for central midfielders, he quickly became my favourite of that cohort. Proved that CDMs didnt have to be big, tough tackling brutes. In my time supporting Arsenal, few others in his position read the play as well. Very intelligent ballplayer. One of the best penalty takers we’ve had. I have issues with him as manager, but also praise him when warranted. Dare I say that many others here take a similarly balanced approach. Also said that the successful he is, the more gooners he’ll win over. He’s won over a fair amount in the past 6 weeks)
Excellent piece, Tim. Nailed it!
someone mentioned higher up the thread a very good point (sorry for not acknowledging you by name but i can’t be bothered to scroll up and see who said this). the fa could permit covid exemptions only considering players who were vaccinated; meaning if you have a player unavailable with covid but they weren’t vaccinated, the fa could simply refuse to acknowledge a request for game deferral for any player who was not vaccinated. i think that’s a solid starting point.
Twas me!
right on. good stuff. excellent idea. i wonder how it would affect the thinking of these clubs. arsenal have the honor of being a club where the manager and their last two captains have all gotten covid…….twice! xhaka has had covid twice in less than 6 months while aubameyang has had covid twice and malaria all in the last year. that’s crazy. do you think they’re all vaccinated? if not, and the club would have to do without their services under your proposed idea, do you think the club would take a harder stance on vaccinations?
people who were vaccinated are treated differently than people who were not vaccinated. is that really fair?
I think it’s fair, yes.
If you’re vaccinated and you get covid, you’ve at least done the minimum to protect yourself, the staff, the people around the club. You are an asset the club has invested heavily in and you acknowledge and respect that. You get sick ok, you’ve given yourself the best chance to be asymptomatic or mild, but even if it is severe, you’ve done what you can. Pre omicron, it was usually enough. With omicron we know you can still get sick.
Being unvaccinated, what’s your excuse? You’re being selfish, plain and simple. And if your club is okay with this, they should pay the price. They may not be able to legally force you, but let’s be real, there are other ways to apply pressure.
We’ve all made great sacrifices in this pandemic. If a player is unwilling to do a very simple thing and a club is unwilling to apply pressure then the fans should not pay the price.
I also have little sympathy for the freedom argument. When I emigrated to the US – legally, and with much paperwork – I was required to get a whole bunch of vaccinations. There was no personal choice loophole. Get them or stay in my country. And rightly so! Public health is important. There is more than enough data on these vaccines to know they are safe. Freedom should not come into it.
oh Brendan Brendan Rodgers. Two goals in added time.
You let the noisy neighbours overtake us.
It’s going to be a really exciting finish. So close. Possibility 3rd place could be up for grabs if crabby tommy implodes 😂
Last year Brendan Rodgers was doing a really good job and his managerial skill was the reason his team playing better then the sum of their parts. This year his team is 10th. If he gets most of the credit for what they did last season then rightfully it seems like he should get most of the blame when his team is not playing nearly as well this season. I have never understood how a manager like Rodgers whose career record is ok but not great can be a really good manager one year and not nearly as good the next. Same with Bielsa at Leeds.
I’m guessing because his methods are basically decent, the players buy into them first year and improve. Then realize their ceiling is 5th, lose a bit of motivation, and slack off somewhat. It’s why all these managers are obsessed with refreshing through the transfer market.
I think you’re looking for simple answers but in football, like everything else in life, the answer is multi-faceted.
Last season Leicester overperformed expected goals by +12 and overall expected goals difference by +8. The result was about +6 points on the final table. As an aside, Brighton underperformed massively last season, -20 points on expected points for a season. That’s virtually unheard of in the data collection era. The point here is that football has variation or what people call “luck”. It’s one of the things we love about the game.
Part of the luck for Leicester last season was the fact that they won 12 pens (most in the League), 10 of those pens in the first 16 matches, with an incredible 5 pens awarded in their first three games – including three pens against Man City in their 5-2 win. If you remember last season the Premier League introduced some new advice on how refs should call penalties and handballs (which lowered the bar for what constituted a penalty) and Leicester were the biggest beneficiaries of those early handball penalties, winning 6 of their first 8 games.
Another factor in all of this is that Brendon Rodgers’ teams tend to flame out late in seasons and his tactics tend to get found out after a short adjustment period. Any manager who doesn’t freshen their tactics from year to year and game to game can get caught looking stale and this has happened to Rodgers at every club he’s been at save Celtic (where the League was a one-team league while he was there).
Of course you would be right to also point to his team missing certain players. Vardy is once again carrying the can for their goals up front but he’s 35 now and years of skittles vodka and fags for breakfast have caught up with him.
Their defense has also collapsed this season and again, there’s a good argument to be made that the problem is in squad quality (which I think you’d love to hear!). Last year they let in 50 goals in 38 games (1.3) and this year they already have 36 in 19 (1.9). That is partly down to the fact that they are missing both Wilfred Ndidi (who they sold) and Wesley Fofana (out with injury).
Rodgers’ reaction to his depleted squad has been to go with a sort of “back to basics” tactical approach and defend deep while trying to hit opponents on the counter. The problem with that, as we saw under both Emery and early Arteta, is that it’s hard to always be on and sometimes players make mistakes and let in goals. Rodgers is a Premier League level coach but I don’t see him as much higher than a mid-table guy. He can organize a team and get them playing good football but even when he is given a generational player like Luis Suarez he can’t get them over the hump because his attacking patterns and defensive schemes are just too basic.