Hey folks, sorry that I haven’t written much this week. I meant to post something about the League Cup match on Wednesday but I had the laptop on my lap, feet up on the yoga ball, and this page open to edit when there was a bright blue flash, a bang, and the power went out.
But it doesn’t take a massive event like the power going out to kill my day’s writing. That’s because I try to pack so many things into a day that I have a tiny window in which I can write. Even something as small as the dog vomiting can stop me. Just 10 minutes here or there is all it takes to throw me off.
I’m thinking out loud here but I suppose I have a number of choices I could make. I could reduce the number of other things I do in a day. That would be a big start. I’ll be the first to admit that I waste a lot of time on things that are probably not that important.
Twitter and Magic the Gathering are a few examples of distractions that I allow to creep in first thing in the morning. But there are a number of good things I have to do every day which take away from my writing time: laundry, vacuuming, hour long walks with the dog, taking the kid to school, making lunch, calisthenics, maybe getting some bread ready for the next day, feeding the dog, cat, and chickens.
Most of these things are an unqualified “good”. For example, I have to feed the chickens or they’ll starve! But another fact of my life is that things have changed. When I started the blog, Avie wasn’t even born. I didn’t have a dog, cat, or chickens, and I also didn’t have high cholesterol, degenerative disk, nerve disorder in my legs, didn’t play around with twitter, and wasn’t really into baking my own bread. I was also in a relationship and – I’ll just be honest – I let her do a lot of the work that I should have been helping with so I could be more selfish and write. Nowdays I start a load of laundry nearly every morning, put away the dishes, vacuum, and do a bunch of other things that I just didn’t do back in 2008.
All of this is just to say that I have a good excuse for not writing anything this week and shouldn’t be hard on myself. You all are very generous with your praise and patience, and I should take a lesson from you in that regard.
I will also just say that I am getting a bit restless about my writing. I want to do more. I just need to figure out when I can carve out time for it. That usually means writing out a daily schedule and seeing how it fits, moving things around and possibly dropping a few things that no longer serve me.
Does anyone want some chickens? LOL. J/K. No one wants chickens because chickens are disgusting little destroyers of worlds.
Arsenal play Leicester City tomorrow at 0430 PDT and the odds makers have the game relatively even with a slight advantage to Leicester (40% win for them with 25% draw according to 538). In the home fixture (on 12th March) 538 gives Arsenal a 45% chance to win based on the current teams’s metrics which suggests that we are the stronger team.
If you look at 538’s league table predictions, they have us finishing 6th right now – below Wham – Spurs 7th and Leicester 8th. And if you sort the table by SPI, Arsenal are the 5th strongest team in the League. And looking at this weekend’s fixtures I think 5th place is very obtainable.
First, we have to beat Leicester. According to the odds, that would be a bit of a lucky result. But Arsenal are playing some football at the moment. I won’t call it “good” because we still look like we have been getting some lucky results but there are certainly some green shoots there of a team starting to gel. If we can come out and smash Leicester from the start with a full-energy, well-organized attack and defense, it’s reasonable to expect a win. That gives Arsenal 17 points and 5th place behind Wham with their +6 GD.
From there, the top three are overwhelmingly expected to win all of their matches, so no change in those positions. Burnley-Brentford, Watford-Southampton, and Norwich-Leeds United, all don’t effect us. Aston Villa-Wham is one to watch: we want Villa to win because a win for them gets us closer to Wham in the table. The Wolves-Everton is another that effects us. We don’t want Everton to win (sorry Ed!) and the good news is that Wolves are pretty big favorites (44%).
But the one we really need to look out for is Spurs-ManU. A draw there is the best result for Arsenal and let’s be honest here, neither of those teams are playing particularly well. It’s been refreshing to hear the major national (UK) podcasts (BBC and Guardian) talk about how crap Spurs are this year. Because it’s true! They are dire under Nuno. Man U have a similar problem, in that they have one main way they know how to play and that has been utterly disrupted by signing that guy this year. A 6-6 draw and 4 red cards, please!
The 538 odds are in United’s favor but I don’t know about that. I firmly believe that Son is one of the best players in the League and he will be a threat on any counters even with the enormous drag factor of playing with Harry Kane. Spurs want to play on the counter and Man U think that they are a ball control team (which is pretty hilarious) but they won’t have Paul Pogba so they will be left with some pretty weak options in midfield. I don’t know, man, this looks like draw to me. That guy will probably get one, Son will get one, and the rest of the game will be a bit of onanism as both teams pretend to go for the points. So, there’s a really good chance Arsenal could finish the weekend 5th.
But it all starts with us tomorrow. We have to take it to Brendan’s team and get a result. If we start slow – as we have done more than a few times this season – they have the tools to hurt us.
Vardy and Pereira are two of their biggest players and they might not start but it will be tough for us as well since Ben White, Odegaard, and Tierney could all miss out on the match. Hopefully, Arteta sticks with Lacazette up front and doesn’t get too Pep on us and try out some wacky new lineup. We have been settling quite nicely in midfield with Lokonga and Partey behind Lacazette and I’d like to see that continue.
One last bit of controversy I’ll mention before I go today: anyone else notice that Arsenal have gone undefeated since Xhaka hasn’t started this season? With Xhaka in the lineup Arsenal are 2-0-3 in all competitions. Without Xhaka 5-2-0. And the last four games I have to say that we have played some of the best football I’ve seen from us in two years.
A lot of us have been asking for Arsenal to have a more mobile, more athletic midfield with better defensive awareness for a long time. We’ve gotten it this month and so far it looks ok (touch wood). Now, granted (Granit!!) we’ve only played Norwich, Burnley, Brighton, Palace, Villa, Wimbledon, and Leeds but you can only beat the teams in front of you. Tomorrow will be a good test of the new midfield partnership.
Magic the Gathering! Yes! Nerds United!
I wouldn’t put much into a Xhaka split where one side of the split also contains a totally different back line and two of our worst performances of the year which were not entirely his fault. We played the best game of the season (Spurs) with him partnering Thomas.
I’ve a lot of time for the political chops of 538 (and Nate Silver). How reliable is their football model? What is their track record on this?
Im loving their projection, but I hope that the minimum that the Arsenal board is expecting from Arteta is 4th. There are 3 runaway outstanding teams in the EPL… City, Liverpool and Chelsea, and we can’t realistically expect to finish ahead of them. But if Mikel can’t look to finish ahead of everyone else, he may as well pack it in.
From the jump and amid a lot of cautious projections in this community of between 6th and 10th, Josh and I were (I think) the only ones who said that top 4 must be a target. No Europe. Every player he told the hierarchy that he wanted. He has to make it count.
Arsenal’s ambition must be Champions League. That’ll unlock a lot, not least money and players — widening the pool of available ones who want to sign for us.
Xhaka I’ve mixed feelings about. Of late he has turned in some lynchpin performances. And then he does brainfart stuff. If we keep playing the same formation as last time with both Laca and Auba — and Sambi, Odegaard et al bed in — I dont see how he gets back in there when he returns. However, he will be needed come Africa Cup of Nations
Finishing ahead of Manchester UNTIED is a big ask, if you ask me. I agree about where the ambition should be though.
I agree. OGS is failing to anywhere near what he should out of an incredible squad of players. The differences, for example, between France Pogba and United Pogba are stark.
The way things are going, I wish OGS and NES many, many more years at Man U and S&#&s. Keep it going!
We also need to keep it going and get results from the next two matches before the inevitable evisceration at Anfield.
I’ve gotten into most of the famous TCGs out there, but have never gotten into MTG. Maybe I should try? I’ve had a friend try to get me to play, but it was overwhelming, with him passing me his deck but basically telling me exactly what to do without properly explaining anything. Maybe I’ll try it some day.
Oh, right, Arsenal. Hope we can win tonight, we looked decent last game. Also, I dunno, I think The Club Formerly Known As Harry Kane FC (that’s a mouthful) is gonna win by a pretty wide margin. Son feels like the perfect player to have against that team. But fingers crossed for a draw I guess. I think I’d prefer a 0-0 game with zero chances and as many reds as possible, like 8 reds or something.
I really like Sambi’s drive. Having three players (partey, sambi and Ben) who can step up/run and break the press makes a big difference. However what they struggle with is slowing the game down once ahead.
Very insightful!
Set piece. Again. Gabriel this time. The job done on this by Arteta’s coaching team has been exceptional.
It’s become a source of fun in the camp that Rob Holding keeps missing his chances. Maybe he’s due a goal next time he plays.
Save of the season!!! Prevented a widely mooted summer signing scoring on us for two games running… keeps a clean sheet…. then gives his jersey to the little kid in the full keeper kit :)))
Missed much of the first half so I mainly watched us seeing out the result. I thought the grit and resolve on show was even more pleasing than the goals. Yes, we conceded chances but to my eye those were more down to great play from the hosts who threw everything they had at us. Reminder that last time they were down 2-0 to MAN UNTIED, they won 4-2, so these foxes know where the goal is.
I also liked the substitutions. He immediately saw we were in trouble to open the half after Leicester changed formation and brought on Odegaard, who helped keep possession in their half, then Pepe who gave us another outlet after Saka’s legs went. It meant that after we survived the second half onslaught we saw a good bit of possession in their half and could’ve scored a third.
I know people will talk about Rambo and ESR and for good reason, but I want to highlight the central midfield, Partey in particular, who was immense in both phases. You don’t put a complete performance like that together without a stellar midfield, and his work rate, positioning and quality on the ball were first rate. You can see Sambi making strides game to game playing next to him and you gotta love it.
Aubameyang leading from the front for 90 minutes was extremely pleasing as well. Everyone deserves praise! And I loved every minute of it, and so did the traveling support, and the manager.
Well that was quite a masterclass performance from Ramsdale. Our custodian of the night was imperious with his saves and blocks. His small naughty altercation with Evans too was right up there in the books of Mad Jens (minus the madness).
Quite sad how we couldn’t control the tempo of the game better in the second half but glad our defence held strong for the clean sheet. That’s not to say Leicester didn’t crave us apart. In fact they did on several occasions only to be thwarted by our new favourite Aaron.
Big win. Three points and looking forward to more goals and assists from Smith Rowe and Saka. Who’s to say our wunderkinds can’t defy history to produce regular end results 🙂
Carve us apart*
Well, I was one of those that wasn’t that enthusiastic about Ramsdale. And to this point, I will gladly admit, I’ve been proven very wrong. He seems as good a shot stopper as Leno, with better command of his area and much better distribution.
The rest of the team seems headed in the right direction as well. 442 with Laca/Auba works pretty well. It means no Pepe, but he’s not done enough to justify anything else.
And it feels like we actually have some depth. Tavares, Odegaard, Pepe all can contribute coming off the bench. Maybe Saliba coming back. And if Xhaka is healthy again by the African cup, that also is a good option.
Thought we were a bit lucky there. We got both goals in the early stages when Leicester hadn’t sorted themselves out, and once they did they were on top for an hour. Ramsdale was a legend, had to make 8 saves and most of them were good ones. Barnes caused us all kinds of problems on our right that if our 442 was solid, a winger shouldn’t have been able to cause. Some improved finishing from Leicester, and they would have beaten us with style.
Overall though I liked our toughness and confidence, but we are still struggling to create enough chances. 442 and sturdy defence, it’s all gone a bit George Graham. Maybe that’s a good thing, but it’s not at all where I thought we were going. Bit of a head scratcher. 🙂
At least the table is now showing what the data has been, that on the last 12 months form we are 5th or 6th best. I don’t expect Wham to stay in front of us. Our defence should enable us to consolidate our position, if it stays strong. We need a big improvement in attack to get back into the top 4 however.
Nice take Greg. You know, I don’t mind a bit of George Graham perspiration. Conte and Ranieri in recent years won titles with sides that don’t concede. But as you say we’re not controlling games. Overall it’s looking much more optimistic of late.
Leicester are a good team and they had us under a proper cosh for about 20 minutes in the second half. Rodgers found a way to overload the right and get 2 v 1 situations against Tomiyasu and it worked well, similar to how Brighton used Cucurella and one of their wingers (was it March?) to cause us problems in that game. That said, I thought the only big chance we gave up from open play was the one where Barnes came clean through after a bit of ping pong but Ramsdale snuffed him out. The Lookman chance was from a narrow angle, Vardy had a header from an early cross but it was from a ways out, and the Ihenacho shot was a thing of beauty but from distance. I can live with those. The other pleasing thing is that Arteta saw the issue and remedied it so that the last quarter of the game was quite sedate and if anything we looked more likely to score. I’m not sure exactly what he did but he references the tweak in his post game comments.
Understat has Leicester beating us 1.9 to 1.1 on xG, but .7 of that xG was the Evans follow up to Maddison’s free kick. As for Arsenal, if you’re up 2-0, it makes sense to prioritize keeping the lead instead of throwing bodies forward. We blew their doors down in the first 20 minutes, got our goals and protected the lead reasonably well. I loved it.
The other thing worth mentioning is Jonny Evans kicking out at Ramsdale in what looked like a deliberate attempt to injure him and getting away with it, and then denying Auba in much the same way as Laporte denied Zaha and getting away with that too. He should’ve been on a yellow when Auba turned him and a straight red for either offense would not have been outrageous either.
Barnes had another chance that he slotted just past the post as well, but these are all good points. I re-watched the second half and the closing spell was more comfortable than I remembered.
I like to see Arsenal players figuring for England, and on form, there isn’t a better England keeper atm than Aaron Ramsdale. Gareth Southgate is going to have to bow to the inevitable, and pick him ahead of Everton’s Jordan Pickford. Peter Schmeichel, whose son just happened to be playing in goal at the other end, called THAT save, on twitter, the best he’s seen in years. David Seaman similarly raved about it.
I loved what I saw in Ramsdale from the first game he started. As I said at the time, he’s slight, but tough. Has an aura. Charisma. Does not stand for defenders slacking off. Vocal. He’s got fight and spunk. I’ll bet that he speaks his mind in the dressing room. And when he signed, he telegraphed his sheer joy at playing for this club, which was instantly endearing. Has quickly established a real connection with the fans. He’s one of the most refreshing signings made in years.I didn’t like the way the club published Leno’s shortcomings on its own website to cynically pave the way for his removal. It reeked of insecurity at a time they were under results pressure… fear of fan backlash for what they were clearly about to do, but the decision has been vindicated. Leno remains a very good keeper, but I feel more confident with Ramsdale in the starting XI. He’ll be there for a decade. Inshallah, as our Muslim bros and sisters would say.
But back to England… they are rich is forward positions, but Smith Rowe’s claims are going to be hard to ignore. It’d be great if he joined Saka, White and Ramsdale in the squad reckoning.
Another young player killing it is Jude Bellingham at Dortmund. Would love to hear Josh run the rule over that one.
Leicester was a good test, passed in impressive fashion. To get where we need to, we are going to have to beat teams like them, West Ham and Everton; and take a game or two, and draws, off the other teams besides WHam currently in the top 6 — Chelsea, Pool, City and United.
And where do we need to get to? Top 4. Has to be the target. No Europe, unconstrained spending, manager given the team he asked for.
We are unbeaten since the 0-3, GD -9 start. We are 5-0-2 since. Credit to Mikel for that turnaround. Hope it’s sustained. It is nice to look at the “last 5 games” form graphic and see no red in there. Our start was so bad, that GD remains negative (-1) after 10 games, but we are heading in the right direction. I wish we’d show the ruthlessness to absolutely tonk a lower table team to redress some of the balance.
Satisfyingly, my Spurs supporting sister in north London is eerily quiet these days, and has stopped tagging me in gloating Facebook posts. I like that we’ve recovered to 6th, but finishing ahead of WHam and United come season’s end should be achievable, all things considered (including no Europe). Top 3 is set. Everyone else can fuhgetaboutit.
This Arsenal side is slowly coming together
We’re on a bjt of a run that is encouraging, but I think our most important player is going to be Ramsdale, particularly as we are still finding our confidence in front the net.
See our close games requires a top GK, and I believe, on form, we have the best in the league right now.
MVP! MVP!VP!
No, it’s not to early to shout his name.