Today’s writing prompt: Arsenal 3-1 Aston Villa, so, how do we explain that? And what about this season? Arenal are now undefeated since August, I thought we were one of the worst teams in the League?
The positives from yesterday are easy to see. The first positive is that it’s undeniable that Arteta changed his tactics and that the team were better in the press as a result.
Arteta started Alexandre Lacazette for the first League match of the season. Deployed in the false 10 role, Laca played behind (and next to) Aubameyang and flanked by Smith Rowe and Saka. Lacazette was tasked with providing energy in both attack and defense. He didn’t have the most pressures, didn’t have anywhere near the most touches or passes, but he gave Arsenal an outlet in offense, and an extra body in defense. And Arsenal used him to key off for defensive pressures and as an outlet for when they were pressed.
Arsenal attempted their 3rd most pressures of the season (137), won the 2nd most (49), won their highest % of attempted pressures (36%), and attempted their most pressures of the season in midfield (rather than high up the pitch. Lacazette won 8 of his 18 pressures which led Arsenal along with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Arsenal also only lost possession through being dispossessed or through poor touch 7 times each. That 14 turnovers was the fewest Arsenal have conceded since Manchester City, where Arsenal had 290 fewer touches thanks to a combination of City’s prowess and Xhaka’s red card. There’s no question in my mind that Lacazette’s presence helped Arsenal keep possession and win possession back when we needed it.
Arsenal so outclassed Villa in the first half that we took 12 shots to their 0. I don’t expect to see that kind of performance every match and certainly not for a full 90 minutes but credit where it is due: Arteta responded to the turgid performances against Brighton and Cry Pal with a new approach which bore fruit.
Arteta also changed tack on set plays, making Thomas Partey the focus of Arsenal’s corners and free kicks. That was another move which paid off with Thomas finally getting some shots off in the 18 yard box for Arsenal, hitting the crossbar, nearly getting an assist, and scoring his debutant goal.
Arteta officially credited the players with better energy and more desire,
“I always said the way they were in the dressing room after Palace, I think that was when we started to win this game. They weren’t happy with some moments we had in that game and they know they have more ability, more quality to do it.
“We talked about it, they had a great reaction and they know that the age is not going to be an excuse. We cannot change it. We are the youngest team in the league and we can change other things, we can improve other things and it has to happen now. Today they showed the level that they can play and I think the fans enjoyed it.”
https://www.arsenal.com/news/today-showed-level-we-can-play
But I disagree with this assessment just like I disagree with him when he says that the players didn’t want it enough against Palace or Brighton. This is Mr. Non-Negotiables. If he has players not giving 100%, he doesn’t play them. And what I’ve seen in many of the games isn’t a lack of energy but a lack of organization. Before yesterday Arsenal were one of the top high-pressing teams in terms of number of attempted pressures, but also one of the worst teams in terms of winning pressures or stopping a team playing through them. Too often I saw one or two players make a press with no one in midfield backing them up and large gaps around the pitch where players were staying back, being passive. This isn’t a one or two game thing. This has been drilled into these players for nearly two years under Arteta.
The same in attack. It’s been so obvious that if you challenge an Arsenal player with the ball that they will almost always turn around and recycle possession. They only did that a few times yesterday and were much more direct and willing to lose the ball in attack. If you’re pressing high, it’s ok to lose the ball in attack because you’re trying to win it back. Prior to yesterday, Arsenal were 17th in turning high pressures into shots and have 0 goals scored off defense.
There is a question about whether Arteta plays that way because of the personnel he has at his disposal. In yesterday’s match we saw Arsenal play with two mobile midfielders – Lokonga was particularly bright – and they had support from the front four who are typically more defensive-minded out of possession and eager to drive forward in attack. The question of why Arteta hasn’t started Lacazette this season has been put to him in press conferences – with the subtext of “are you trying to force him to sign a new deal?” – but he refuses to be drawn and answer the question. But I think Lacazette is going to sign on a Bosman for another team in January and that we need to play him every game that he’s available and that it makes sense until he doesn’t play for us anymore.
If we had wanted to keep him, we should have signed him to a new deal at least last January. We know that stuff. Look at how we just signed Xhaka to a new contract. But as Arteta said in his press conference “you never know”, perhaps Lacazette will stay with Arsenal, perhaps not. It doesn’t change my feeling that we need to play him more, a thought I have shared many times already this season.
As good as we played in the first half there was yet another 2nd half drop off. Was it energy or tactical? At first it seemed tactical to me. Dean Smith took off a center back and brought on a midfielder (Bailey) switching from a 3-5-2 to a 4-2-3-1 and matching Arsenal’s formation. On my live viewing, I thought we reverted back to playing with just one or two midfielders who were isolated and deep. It had looked to me like Lacazette played too far up the pitch, leaving too much space between himself and the midfielders, wide support also evaporated, and it was easier for Villa to get close to us and harass us for possession. I saw Arteta resetting the Arsenal formation, taking a moment to tell Lacazette to get closer and gesturing a few seconds later for Aubameyang to get high up the pitch and lead the high press.
But when I watched the first ten minutes of the second half again this morning, I was wrong. I was right that Arteta gave the orders that he gave but Lacazette had been helping out as much as before, dropping deep, providing an outlet. But they just had an extra man in midfield and made it difficult for us to move the ball forward.
That raises the spectre that perhaps my analysis that Arteta got the tactics right is a bit overblown. But I think it’s a case of “why not both?” Adding Lacazette made it easier for the players to put more energy into the game and see results. Having more mobile midfielders like Lokonga and Partey gave us a better platform for a more energetic approach. And keeping the spaces more compact made it easier for our players to play to each other and close down when we did lose the ball. And the other thing that we have to admit is that positivity is often infectious: the more you win the ball, the more energy you’re willing to put into winning the ball, and so on. These things are all interrelated.
What does this all mean for the season? Well, for one, it means that today we are in 9th. But tomorrow we could be 10th. And there are a lot of teams right now in this mid-table traffic jam. We could go above Spurs next weekend with a win over Leicester and them dropping points against Wham and ManU. As Doc pointed out in the comments yesterday: there are a lot of teams with similar statistical strength and a lot of room for variance to affect the final table.
Still enjoying watching it unfold.
Still a thrill to have expectations for those 2 hours– without gnashing or rending over outcomes.
On to the Red Water Buffalo cup comp for 🍴!
Trust the “Process”: If Wenger is the Professor, then Arteta is the Processor.
Does that mean that we used to Trust The Profess?
Nah, we just profess the trust
I am almost tempted to build a statistical model to put a range on Arsenal’s final position. Perhaps after the december round of matches.
538 has one, it’s pretty good, they give all the sources for their model if you want to start somewhere.
Interesting, thank you!
That was the most complete and attacking performance since Arteta arrived. Well done team and manager.
I envy whoever attended the match having sat through Monday night’s dismal affair. This was exactly what we want from our team.
Partey finally took ownership. He’s been very poor value to date and owes more performances like this. Arteta has rightly told him to step up.
Smith-Rowe is an absolute gem. We’re extremely lucky to have two ex-academy superstars in the making. Tavares was on fire and probably my MOTM.
We now need consistency. It’s too early to say we’ve turned a corner. How much was design, individual brilliance or Villa’s passivity? We’ll know soon enough. But I’ll be delighted if that performance becomes the norm.
Finally, I don’t get why Arteta thought it necessary to make the lifestyle changes comment about ESR. So unnecessary.
ESR seems so cleancut so I’m curious what these lifestyle changes refer to.
It’s probably just things like diet, sleeping patterns or something innocuous.
He does look like he carried baby fat in his late teens. Looks a lot more lean this year.
Maybe he is one of those prone to fat guys like Arshavin
I miss Arshavin
Like I said in a previous post, his mum back in Croydon now gives him two eggs for breakfast and has rationed the time he spends on his Xbox. Boys will be boys, eh?
I don’t think stopping his pocket money is going to work somehow.
good post, tim. i agree with, essentially, everything you said.
Great review Tim.
Great performance and result. Certainly rivals the Spurs game for our best performance of the season. Credit to everyone on the team for a really good effort.
I am always skeptical when we postulate a significant tactical change as the reason for an out of character really good performance or a really bad one or the idea that we can find some sort of tactical solution that will make us turn the corner and suddenly become a team who performs well consistently. Some of us thought we had turned a corner after the spurs game and I am sure there have been >100 similar great performances like yesterday and the Spurs game over the years that have no tactical explanation. Its hard for me to accept that Arteta has been manager for 2 years and yesterday he finally found a tactical solution that fixed our pressing. Lacazette has been with the club for 4+ years and 3 different managers and those managers watch him everyday in training and they watch every game and study his play on thousands of hours of film and Laca has never done enough to make himself a regular starter for any of those managers. I struggle to accept the idea that a team which has been unable to press effectively for 2 years somehow in 1 week has turned into a good pressing team or a player like Laca changed who he is and become a key to our future success and we need to find a way to give him a new long term contract that will start in his age 31 season. We have all been watching Arsenal for a lot of years and we have seen more then enough excellent performances like yesterday and we have seen teams and players in all sports have occasional great days. It happens all the time.
I know that some people might disagree but my answer to your question in the post title “how do we explain that” is there is no explanation. Our players executed really well and the Villa players had a bad day and most of the time that does not have a logical explanation.
“I am always skeptical when we postulate a significant tactical change as the reason for an out of character really good performance or a really bad one or the idea that we can find some sort of tactical solution that will make us turn the corner and suddenly become a team who performs well consistently.”
It has happened in the past, Bill, not just with Arsenal but other clubs I can think of. I will have to search my limited memory space to think of some good examples. Often, a key acquisition or structural change can make all the difference.
I recall when Brady and Stapleton arrived from Dublin in the 70s, it literally caused the club to take off, from being a bunch of also rans to 3 successive cup finals.
In the run up to the 1971 double the coach at the time, Don Howe, completely transformed the way we played. We became incredibly difficult to beat. George Graham likewise in the 1980s. There were previously unheralded players, who managed to change the whole dynamic by force of their personalities more than anything else.
You just need to get the chemistry right. Very elusive, but when it happens you can sense it. Don’t write off the possibility.
This is Bill’s thing and it’s so obviously wrong that I’ve stopped even arguing with it.
I think the thing is Tim, that a lot of posters on this site, look at Arsenal Football Club through the prism of Arsene Wenger. Perfectly understandable when you think about it, unless you’re an old git like myself. Wenger managed to find world class players at knock down prices, because he knew the market better than anyone else. He used that to his and Arsenal’s advantage.
Sadly, those days evaporated bit by bit and are now completely gone. We’re having to compete with the likes of Crystal Palace and Brentford on a far more level playing field. That means finding a whole new way of getting some sort of an edge over the rest of the division. We tried throwing money around left, right and centre, and rather like Man Utd, it hasn’t really worked.
So where does that leave us? Basically, we’ve got to be smart, both tactically and financially. We’ve done it in the dim and distant past and we need to do it again. There was life before Arsene Wenger and there will be life after him.
Yeah Welsh, I used to visit ACLF as well. Took my share of return fire from Bill there years back– particularly when I’d mention Arsenal’s ongoing dev of StatDNA. One of the small ironies I’ve been enjoying here– that Bill landed on Tim’s site after Stuart’s demise.
Last year when Bill showed up on this blog, I had called out he is a troll. He has since continued to spam each post with his nonsense. I am begging you Tim, for the mental well being of all those who enjoy this blog for year, please permanently block this A*hole.
That may be a little harsh…just don’t read his comments. I’ve not seen him get abusive towards anyone. Cheers! COYG!
I disagree. It’s Tim’s blog, ofc, but my pov, for what i’s worth, is that Bill’s got a right to his say same as me and you. He’s not a troll. In fact he seems a nice guy. He just makes the same exhausting, linear, black and white argument over and over again; in which tactics seemingly have no effect on outcomes. Apparently lauding a young player is the same as expecting them to explode as world class talents.
Bill is not a troll. He´s a nice guy with a slightly one dimensional view on arsenal things.
He used to post on ACLF until Stuart died. Same old issues and same old going against the tide. Though have to say that Bills been proven right over the years.
I used to read about 5 Arsenal blogs a day, and the quirky ACLF was one of them. Loved their photo selections to accompany the pieces. Don’t have the time I used to, though. 7am is the only automatic daily click now. I dont read Arseblog for weeks at a time, something i’d have considered unthinkable before (sorry, Andrew, if you’re reading this. I’ll come back. Promise)
@ Seattle, be careful your posts don’t present you as being more than a little hypocritical.
While for sure one of the most stubborn people I have “met”, Bill has never come across as anything other than an upstanding gentleman.
Yeah Welsh, I used to visit ACLF as well. Took my share of return fire from Bill there years back– particularly when I’d mention Arsenal’s ongoing dev of StatDNA. One of the small ironies I’ve been enjoying here– that Bill landed on Tim’s site after Stuart’s demise.
(Apologies for the double-post!)
Claude, one of those quirks regarding the photography at ACLF– has to do with the writer’s affinity for American cinema. Almost every (uncaptioned) photo would have some reference in the post itself. A few degrees removed from the topic.
The fun of it wasn’t knowing the reference right off– but using Google Images to search for the image– eventually discovering the connection.😉
“I know that some people might disagree but my answer to your question in the post title “how do we explain that” is there is no explanation. Our players executed really well and the Villa players had a bad day and most of the time that does not have a logical explanation.”
Is it your belief that football is basically non deterministic? Nothing more than the outcome of random variance?
Last season was terrible, he should’ve been fired in the summer. The first three games, particularly Brentford, were more of the same, could’ve had no complaints if he was fired then.
Since the break, his tactics have been largely good, with the exception of Xhaka, when available. Yes we’ve had two draws that shouldn’t have been draws, but that’s down to the league being competitive more than abysmal tactics. I agree that the team’s post-goal passivity last game was down to him drilling them into defensive shapes last season. But at least he made clear after the game that that is not how he wants the team to play in the future. They listened.
We’re now playing forward and narrow, using our attacking midfielders as focal points rather than decoys, and using different types of attacking midfielders/forwards. All the formations he’s played – 433, 4231, tilted 4231 and now the old Bergkamp-Henry 442/4411 – are fundamentally sound uses of his resources (which he+Edu convinced the skint owners into acquiring, and I credit him for that). Substitutions have been effective or defensible, largely square pegs in square holes.
I’m just amazed he had to burn a year and three games when he was aware of these ideas from the beginning. But at the moment, I don’t think his job should be in danger. 4th/5th place is a reasonable expectation, I think we can get there, especially if United persist with Solskjaer for the season.
klopp is the best! as a coach, i’ve copied more from him back when he was at dortmund than i ever did from wenger. what a show by liverpool today.
Can you imagine if he was our coach? What a leader. I’d really love to know how they identify talent. Mane, Salah, Keita and many more…. Players pretty much any epl club could afford but ‘Pool bought them.
Michael Edwards (not the ski jumper, though) is the main answer to your question. He´s leaving Liverpool at the end of this season. I am curious where will he end up.
Yes, recruitment plays a massive role. I’ve just watched Liverpool completely take Man Utd to the cleaners. I don’t have the stats, but United are probably one of the wealthiest clubs in world football. They could probably afford to buy anyone they wanted, and they do. A bit like us, however, over the last few years they’ve collected an expensive bunch of misfits, of questionable attitude.
That is not the whole story though. I’m no tactical genius, but I could see by the way they were lined up, that Liverpool were just about to walk right through them and they did. Did United actually play with a left back? Against Salah and co?? Insane.
To use a crap analogy, it’s a bit like baking a cake on one of those TV cookery shows. You can give the same ingredients to 10 different people and they will come up with the whole range of results from great to pretty average. In my case, I wouldn’t know where to start.
It was also noticeable in the 2nd half, that the Man Utd spirit had gone. Some had all but given up.
A good collective mentality can take you to places, you didn’t think were possible. Witness Brentford in the 1st game. On paper, there is no way in a million years they should have beaten us, but they did and deservedly so. They identified a plan which would nullify our play. They then carried it out with discipline, energy and commitment. It would be a start if Arsenal learned to do the same. Perhaps we think we are above all that.
Ole made a lot of tactical errors in that match but for me the biggest problem is that they tried to press Liverpool with a disorganized pressing system and got taken apart.
Matt I think you hit on the most critical element for any teams success which is talent evaluation and acquisition. For the most part we have been really poor at doing that since about 2015 which is why we are where we are.
For all of his brilliance Klopp has won 2 trophies in his 6 years in the PL but they are big trophies and I would certainly be more then happy with that record. The problem is how many Klopps are there in the world. I would argue there are may be a couple per generation. If we could find Klopp or Fergie we should certainly make every effort to try to get him.
Tim @ 6:04
If you look for an explanation for every event you will find one. You have been telling me for 2 years that Arteta has been a poor tactical manager and yet somehow he won the FA cup against much better teams. Did Arteta somehow outsmart Man City and Chelsea in the FA cup run and then forget how to do tactics. Is there a good explanation for all of the times that one of Arsene’s team played with the handbrake on? Did Arsene make a tactical mistake each time his team struggled or did they just have an unexplainable bad game? I would argue the latter. Is there a good explanation when a .220 hitter hits .450 for a week with 4 home runs or a .315 hitter goes for a couple weeks when he hits .125 with a couple strikeouts every game. Some of the stuff just happens there is no good explanation.
Los Ingunnables
Of course football results are not random. The best teams like Man City and Liverpool finish near the top of the table every year because results are not random. However, at the same time there does not have to be a tactical or logical explanation for every result. Spurs beat Man City in game 1 but does that mean the spurs manager outsmarted Pep? Players and teams have good individual games or series of games for no explainable reason.
“Did Arteta somehow outsmart Man City and Chelsea in the FA cup run and then forget how to do tactics.”
I know you posed with rhetorically, but by all available evidence: YES.
There is an additional explanation, which is that our players are nearly as bad as their sum, and that the system has systematically made the team worse.
@claudeivan Sorry I respectfully disagree. Bill is the Keyser Söze of trolls. He will do all he can to not get banned but he will spam by harping on some nonsense each time he posts.
When he first showed up I think last year, he said stats don’t matter. Well why the f*k does he come on a blog which essentially uses stats to interpret and discuss football if stats don’t matter?
Then he switched tack and said, the only stat that matters is goals scored, everything else is immaterial. He kept on bringing some sliced and diced drivel which he wanted to pass of as stats. Do you remember his take on Ozil and players falling of after 30? Here is an A*hole using some non-sensical stats all the while claiming stats don’t matter.
The next brilliant piece of insight from this Macarthur genius was that its the team not the manager that is at fault. When asked by multiple folks on naming which players we should buy, he kept saying the players are the problem, without once providing any analysis, reasoning or for that matter any coherent means of identifying the said upgrades. Heck I don’t one player he has suggested we should buy.
I am sorry but I just see a pattern here where all he ever does is to argue against any insightful post or comment. That is troll behavior for me.
I would say one thing though which I was not able to comment on in Hooked blog by Tim. I have been addicted to Arsenal and 7amkickoff a lot. I used to visit the blog at-least 10-20 times a time to the point of it becoming an OCD behavior. With the dread of having to see one of Bill’s comments, I have been able to reign in my visits to the site. He has a great prospect at some de-addiction center.
Hello to you, guy from Seattle! I don’t think you respectfully disagree, I think you disrespectfully disagree. You’re making fun, at best, or you’re trying to exclude, which is much worse, a person who is knowledgeable, kind, ready to discuss, friendly and passionate. I also disagree with some of Bill’s positions and I also see that he relentlessly hammers the same vision (the importance of “firepower”, the lack of influence of coaching and the small chance of a gifted youngster turning into a star,…), but I’ll humor him because of the above and because, more than once, his contributions were quite valuable. Also because this is a community.
Hello to you as well Serge. I disagreed with Claude not Bill. I disagree with a lot of posters here but I hardly comment, much less I want anyone genuine to be excluded. I specifically called out Bill since he is exhibiting troll behavior. Just because someone said Ryan Shawcross is a nice guy and not that “that kind of a guy” doesn’t change the fact that he intentionally does endanger the opponent.
And please do point out where his contributions have been valuable?
Thank you for all of your support of the site and positive words for me and others.
One thing I will say in all of this is that I don’t think Bill is a Troll. I guess I can see your point, in a way? I think he over-simplifies things and hits those same notes over and over and a lot of people do rise to these posts and respond. So it does seem a bit like he’s baiting people into arguments. But it’s also a bit like listening to someone play “Three Blind Mice” over and over again and then getting angry at them for playing the same song. I get it but he’s not really violating any of our rules (which are pretty simple, no ad-hominem attacks, no homophobia, racism, sexism, transfobia or other forms of discrimination).
So, I don’t see any reason to ban Bill from the site. My advice is to just skip over his comments if they bug you.
The next 3 games in the EPL are very important. We need to get a result against Liverpool.
I would caution against that sort of thinking. They are the best team in Europe right now.