Hi folks, sorry I’ve been away for a week but hey everyone needs to take time off every once in a while.
Arsenal play Crystal Palace today and I have to say that I’m more than a little worried that we are going to get beaten by Patrick Vieira’s Palace.
I probably shouldn’t be worried. They have one of the worst goalkeepers in the league (Guaita) and have allowed ~3 goals more than expected this season because of him. This is where I would normally say “shoot at Guaita” but Arsenal are terrible at shooting this season, taking far too many poor chances and not enough big ones.
Through 7 matches, Arsenal have one of the worst big chance for/against ratios in the League. (via https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/b5wp/2021/wp352/en/ )
Of course difficulty of schedule and all that plus it’s early in the season and we have yet to process the trust and of course the players aren’t all that good and Arteta just needs about 6 or 7 more transfer windows to get the right set of players in. Plus there were injuries at the start of the season and the refs are against us and Xhaka was wrongly sent off and it was unfair that we had to play Man City, Chelsea, and uhh Brentford – who are just better than us and we just need to accept it and support the team.
I think that covers all the excuses?
I’m being an ass of course. It is early in the season and there’s a lot of football left to play and Arteta will surely turn the beat around. Back to the game at hand.
Palace have the fewest key passes of any team in the League this season, which is odd considering the fact that they are slightly above Arsenal in expected goals. They must almost exclusively create big chances? I checked the data on Understat and that doesn’t really match. So, my second theory is that they.. hmm..
Looking at the shots data, they are also last in shots taken and have only 16 shots on target this season (also worst in the League). I was going to theorize that they get their shots from individual play but man, they don’t really even shoot. Why am I worried?? We really should beat them and beat them easily but then I see that Arsenal only have 25 shots on target this season (third worst) and again, sigh.
Palace are one of the worst teams in terms of progressive passing (we are actually dead last in progressive passes).
Palace only have 3 through balls this season (Arsenal have 4).
Palace are 15th in tackles this season (Arsenal are 20th).
Palace are 19th in tackles in the final third (with 8.. EIGHT, total in 7 matches).
Palace have attempted the third fewest tackles against dribbles (Arsenal have the fewest).
Palace do attempt a lot of final third pressures, they are 6th in the League in that stat (Arsenal are 12th).
They don’t block a lot of passes or intercept the ball but then, neither does Arsenal.
And believe it or not, they are 13th in dribbles attempted. Which is weird considering that they have Zaha and Michael Olise. And they don’t really carry the ball forward progressively – they are 16th in progressive carry distance (Arsenal are 17th). And they are 18th in total number of progressive carries but they lead the League in miscontrolled carries and being dispossessed.
They don’t even win a lot of aerial duels.
This is super weird. Both Arsenal and Palace just seem like.. shitty teams. I know this is an Arsenal blog but man looking at the data is depressing. I can’t point to any event data and say “this is what Arsenal do well”.
Maybe this is the new coaching revolution? Try not to generate any event data: don’t tackle, don’t press, don’t dribble, don’t pass forward, and for god’s sake don’t shoot.
Anyway, looking forward to an un-event-data-filled match*.
*In time honored tradition, it will probably end up being a classic.
Those are very disappointing numbers but you have therewith provided a highly prescient preview. You couldn’t get a fag packet between those two teams and they are both firmly mid-table outfits, despite the more talented members of the Arsenal squad. One positive is that it looks as if PV4 can motivate and organise a team to take advantage of an opponent’s weaknesses. Perhaps worth keeping an eye on that lad.
We had Partey, Odegaard, ESR and Pepe today. Creative players who are good on the ball, or so we are told. We were also told that Wenger didn’t coach. But I can’t help but feel that had it been Wenger in charge, we would see free-flowing football. Is the problem then over-coaching by Arteta? Or are these players not as good as we think they are?
The most frustrating thing for me is that I wanted to see exactly this 433 formation and player composition – it seemed to me the best way to get the attacking players I wanted (both creativity and scoring wise) on the pitch. But it was rubbish. We were rubbish. I don’t know the stats for the game, but I’d be shocked if they stood out from those Tim laid bare above.
The last vestiges of hope, boosted by one half of football against the Spuds, are now draining away. I feel not angry but just completely apathetic, which is definitely worse.
We were, and have been, atrocious. There’s absolutely no fluidity going forward. Perhaps these boys need Wenger’s attacking automation exercises in training.
I quite agree David. I thought a midfield of ESR, Partey and MO would be a lot more special than it was. I thought MO, in particular, looked very ordinary. After a bright start, Palace grew into the game, as we shrank from it. Their two goals were down to losing possession in the wrong part of the field and then not responding quickly enough. Not just once, but twice.
Tierney had another poor game. I’m beginning to wonder if Tavares might offer more.
Mike Dean was useless. Their midfield bloke got away with murder. Dean liked to play the advantage, which is fine, but it is also fine to go back and book the offender once the sequence of play comes to an end. He didn’t do that once. Bad reffing.
To add insult to injury, I left 5 minutes before the end in a fit of pique and missed the equaliser! Mind you, by then I had almost entirely lost the will to live.
Thanks for the post Tim. You certainly deserve to take some time off whenever you feel like it. An international break is the best time for it.
I think the stats you discuss are like almost everything in European football and can be very subjective. The definition of what is a key pass or a big chance depends on which person decides whether or not to call it a big chance. Its the same thing with a significant percentage of the calls the ref makes in every game. Was that a foul or not. Was there enough contact in the box to call it a penalty or did the player go down to easily? 2 different well informed people can watch the exact same play and have completely opposite opinions. Hit or error decisions by an official scorer at a Major League Baseball game are often very subjective. Its the same with American football pass interference calls. The difficult thing about European football is that almost every single call is every bit as subjective and variable as pass interference. Some are completely obvious but a significant percentage are debatable which makes hard to know the true predictive value of the stats with regard to the teams actual results.
Yeah, at this point, my faith in Arteta is certainly slipping. I’d rather have had Viera on today’s evidence.
We can no longer blame underspending owners. Too many players aren’t justifying their price tags, and/or are underperforming. Pepe and Partey are the obvious examples, but what’s happened to Tierney?
The way we’re playing now, certainly don’t deserve a European place. At least the women’s team looks good.
On the refereeing side, how was that kick on Saka by MacArthur not a red? If Xhaka did that, he’d have received a 10 match ban. Saka is in danger of ended up the next Wilshere(both for Arsenal and England). He’s going to get kicked to pieces before he’s 24.
David and TANPA
We scored twice. I don’t think we can expect anything better then 2 goals. The problem today is our defense conceded 2.
With regard to the question at the end of your comment. Pepe has been a bust so far. No other way to say it. Odegaard has been a highly hyped prospect for at least 5 years but he has never truly realized his potential and made himself into a regular starter for Madrid. Madrid would not have sold him if they thought he was that good. ESR is a nice player with technical skill but fans always over rate our own players. Arsene’s teams played attractive football but he had Fabregas group and then Ozil in his prime, Cazorla, Ramsey Wilshere and Sanchez. The attacking players we have now are not comparable. I don’t think its realistic to believe that Arsene could take this group of players and turn them into a free flowing attacking team the scores plenty of goals. We have been a good defensive team under Arteta that has the chance to be even better at preventing goals against but the idea that we can score enough and build a top 6 contending team with this group of attacking players is overly optimistic. IMO. We are a mid table team.
I guess I didn’t want to believe that about Odegaard, but this seems to be the case.
Sorry Bill, but we’ve spunked massive amounts on new players – who Arteta wanted – and I don’t buy (pun intended) the “we need better / more appropriate etc players” argument any more.
Palace should have won that game and we got a lucky late goal to salvage a draw because Viera bottled it for the last 15 mins. At home. Against Crystal Palace.
I’ve seen countless analyses over multiple seasons correlating the amount Clubs spend vs League position. We’re not a mid table club. Our spending at the least puts us in the top 6, and most likely top 4.
But we have a manager who I just don’t have any confidence will get us even in the top 10, and Tim’s stats above followed by what my eyes saw on Monday evening only serves to reaffirm that.
I liked Arteta as a player. I’m through with him as a manager.
Our first 8 games have included the teams in 1st, 3rd, 4th 5th and 9th places in the league table. We are not at that level and expecting us to be much higher then 12th place at this point in the season is not realistic based on strength of schedule we have played against. By mid season I predict we will be around 7th – 9th place which is probably where we will finish
TANPA.
Tine will tell with odegaard but He has been around for at least 5-6 years and hasn’t really lived up to the potential. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as once believed. Madrid was willing to sell Ozil because they had an abundance of riches in terms of mid field talent and did not really need him. They actually averaged scoring more goals per season in the 3 years after Mesut was sold compared with the previous 3 years. However I don’t think Madrid would have sold Odegaard if they thought he was was a special talent.
i have two points to make.
first, when wenger announced that he was leaving, the only manager i said i wanted to come in was patrick vieira; i certainly didn’t want arteta. vieira has been at palace for like 3 months and already has them playing with more direction than arteta has arsenal……and arteta has been at arsenal for nearly two years, has better players and has far more money.
second, with the way arteta has arsenal playing, the best option is to play lacazette at center forward, not aubameyang. it’s not personal. lacazette is just a better center forward.
Joshua,
I’ve watched a lot of Vieira as a manager. He’s decidedly mediocre. We are just in such a bad way right now that the only reason they looked good is because we are so bad.
i respectfully disagree with you, tim.
when at nycfc, vieira never won the league but that team was exciting to watch and were always very competitive. i know mls isn’t the premier league but the football they played was expansive and attacking, unlike arsenal.
at nice, vieira got screwed as he got the team into europe but that summer, the owner sold many of the top players and gave vieira a bunch of academy kids and loanees who simply weren’t ready and needed more time. i watched those games, too. vieira had to start over again. the youngsters made a bunch of bad mistakes that cost them many games and vieira was the hang man.
crystal palace was a job nobody wanted. they lost 14 first team players after hodgson left. they’re in rebuild mode and, three months in, still look ahead of arteta’s arsenal, who’ve spent massive amounts of money, have far better players, and far more time under their current manager. with a new coach and a new team, they’ve only lost two games in the league and they’ve played against liverpool, chelsea, arsenal, tottenham, west ham, brentford, brighton, and leicester city; they haven’t played the likes of norwich and burnley yet like arsenal have, yet their only two places behind arsenal in the table.
arsenal, under arteta, have been in a bad way. yesterday wasn’t an aberration. palace fully deserved to win. we can’t be fooled because arteta got 66% of his wins this season against teams in the relegation zone. vieira would have done a far better job with the resources and time arteta’s had.
You guys know I’m always good for some excuses so please indulge me. I prefer to talk about what we did well rather than what we didn’t because I’m a fan and I’m not embarrassed admit that I’m biased.
First off, Arsenal started well. We controlled the game and put them under pressure. We scored a goal in the 7th minute as a consequence. Better yet, Aubameyang scored that goal and made everyone happy, including himself. It’s good to see the front flip again!
Admittedly we lost our way for most of the rest of the way in the first half. But what you want to see is a clear change in the second instead of accepting that and that’s exactly what we got. Moreover, Arteta was at pains to emphasize how he hated that we became so passive during that period. It was not how he drew that up. We conceded in the second half from a foul on Partey, but regardless of your view on that, we were trying to play progressive football and took some risks. That’s what we wanted to see, but this is the downside of that. You can’t have absolute security and progressive football unless you’re Barcelona circa 2009.
I thought we were fine the rest of the way. Arteta made a good change bringing Lacazette on and he immediately started creating things. It became the classic cat and mouse game. We had to keep committing and they got opportunities in transition. Eduard looks like a top player and it’s too bad we couldn’t get him, but I also get why we spent in other places in the squad. That was a heck of a shot. Spare a thought for Tierney who was even better placed but missed scoring by a few centimeters.
At the end game, Vieira brought on Tomkins for Eduard (who had been their best player) and sold out for defense. In a sense the late goal was his just dessert for that, as Arsenal spent the final 10 minutes camped out in the palace half. It only takes a funny bounce to go your way and that’s what we got. Shout out to Mike Dean who must have felt bad about ignoring a blatant red card offense against Saka because he let Arsenal out in that second ball from the corner well past the 4 added minutes.
arsenal started well and played well up until the goal. after halftime, i didn’t see a change in the second half that you speak of. it was more of the same from the first half until crystal palace equalized.
i do agree with you that lacazette changed the game. however, that’s not a surprise to me as i’ve always advocated that he play. unlike auba, he offers so much more to the arsenal attack than simply goals.
as for the palace goals, both sambi and partey lost challenges that led to their goals. even if they were fouled, it’s not the reason they gave the ball away. also, the defending by the two central defenders was poor. gabriel letting benteke receive the ball and turn…..and dribble across the face of the goal onto his favored foot? that’s bad soccer. they let benteke turn all game, reminiscent to lukaku in the chelsea game. i almost believe they were taught that by arteta’s coaches. you never let a player turn, especially that close to the goal. on the second goal, ben white let edouard have too much space. if you’re not close enough to touch him, you’re too far away. like you, i did appreciate edouard’s goal. i used to toe poke all the time. it’s such a clever touch; so difficult to anticipate. neither ramsdale or white saw it coming.