“Cry ‘uh oh’ and let the dogs of war off their leashes!” – Shakespeare’s first draft.
If you sort the Premier League table by non-penalty expected goal difference (on FBREF) the bottom five teams are
Norwich (-6.3)
Newcastle (-5.7)
Leicester (-4.1)
Arsenal (-3.8)
Tottenham (-3.6)
And when you break that down further by first looking at attack, Arsenal are 9th in expected goals for (6.1) and Tottenham are bottom of table with an xG of 3.8. Tottenham are bottom of the table in terms of expected goals because they are 3rd from the bottom in shots per game.And it’s not like they are creating great chances either: they are 2nd from the bottom in npxG per shot (0.08). This is what happens when a team only creates 5 big chances (shots above 0.15 xG) in their first five matches.
Arsenal’s attack has been marginally better but only because we have taken a lot more shots than them. Arsenal have taken a respectable 74 shots but only created 4 big chances. That stat includes two matches with no big chances for Arsenal, against Brentford and Man City.
Defensively both teams aren’t playing too well either. Arsenal are 4th worst in the League with an xGA of 9.9 and Spurs are 7th worst in the league with an xGA of 8.2. Spurs are also third worst in shots allowed (89), though Arsenal aren’t much better there in 6th worst with 83.
Both teams have had red cards this season, which distort the stats for both clubs. Arsenal’s red card was against Man City and in that match alone they had a -3.7 xG. So, without that match, Arsenal’s xGD is basically even with -0.1. Spurs’ red card was against Palace and the xGD from that one match was -2.3 putting their total xGD for the season at -1.3 if we exclude their red card.
When it comes to keeping the opposition from creating big chances neither team has really impressed this season. Spurs have conceded 11 big chances, though 4 of them were in the red card match against Palace. Arsenal have conceded 13 big chances this season but 6 of those were against Man City (Xhaka red card) and 5 were against Chelsea. The other two were against Brentford. On the bright side, Arsenal haven’t conceded a big chance in either of their last two matches.
Defensively, Arsenal are similar to how they have been the entire time under Arteta: passive. Dead last in tackles won, Arsenal clearly don’t put much value in tackling. We are even 2nd bottom in tackles against dribbles. And we are dead last in the league in dispossessing a player when they are carrying the ball. And before you say “well maybe the opponents don’t carry the ball?” We have allowed the 4th most carries in the League.
Tottenham allow more carries than Arsenal. In fact they allow the most carries in the League, and they are the absolute worst team in the league in tackle recoveries. Spurs and Arsenal are 3rd and 4th worst in allowing touches in the opposition penalty area and Arsenal have allowed the 2nd most touches in their penalty box, Spurs are 3rd.
With Arsenal there was a significant distorting effect in the Man City match. City had 1795 yards of progressive carries against Arsenal. That’s 400 YARDS more than the worst team’s average this season. And City also had 320 touches in our final third, which is 75 more than their season average and they lead the League in that.
But Arsenal also allowed Burnley 203 touches in our final third, more than 2X the number we allowed Brentford. And Burnley and Norwich had 11 and 10 carries each into Arsenal’s final third. With neither side being very adept at carrying the ball.
Given that both managers have been playing football this way for many years it seems like it’s a deliberate choice by both Nuno and Mikel to play fewer one-v-one duels.
You would think that both managers would let loose the dogs of war and ask their teams to press but looking at the match data from last season that’s not what we saw. Arteta’s Arsenal did press a lot in one match against Spurs but then also had the fewest pressures of the season in another (the 2-0 loss in week 11). Against Wolves, both times Arsenal had moderate pressure. Meanwhile Nuno’s Wolves side put almost no pressure on Arsenal with the matchweek 10 win over Arsenal, Arsenal’s 2nd least pressured match of the season.
Nuno also has two wins in three tries over Arteta and all three times has played a deep block countering style. This is kind of how he has Spurs playing this season, relying on Kane to drop and try to spring Son for one-v-ones running at defenders.
Arsenal bought Ben White this summer and one of his talents is speed. He is supposed to be able to keep up with race-horses like Son.
The North London Derby is usually hard to predict. Emotions run high in these matches and players feed off that energy. This is also the first NLD in front of home fans since the Pandemic shut down in-person football last March. And Arsenal supporters now are a raw nerve after a poor start to the season. I expect that the early game will be pretty wild, I hope that the Arsenal players can keep their heads.
But I don’t think either of these managers will try something radically different. It’s not impossible to see something unusual (like Arsenal pressing deep in midfield rather than high up the pitch or challenging every possession) but they are both fairly set in their ways and Arteta is especially turgid in his approach. My best guess is high possession for Arsenal, high (up the field , not total number of) pressures from Arsenal, and Spurs trying to get a counter through Alli, Kane, and Son.
Starting lineups.
I would start Ramsdale in this match: he’s commanding in his area (just not just yelling and pointing; he comes and claims high balls which protects players like Ben White) and his distribution is better (longer) than Leno.
I would also start the main back line of Tomiyasu, White, Gabriel, and Tierney. Tomiyasu will play more like a center back in this system, giving us a back three that can pretty easily switch to a back two with a wide man who can dribble.
In midfield I would start Partey and Ødegaard, but we all know that Xhaka is going to start. Xhaka has never returned from a red card and then gotten a red card right away but there’s a first time for everything! Xhaka’s passing might end up being perfect for us since I’m expecting light pressure from Spurs for the most part. However, he’s a defensive liability and I’m not sure that he and Partey work well together.
I would love to see Ødegaard in the number 8 with Partey. I think having him play deeper – as Arteta has done a few times this season – allows us to play Saka, Auba, Smith Rowe, and Pepe in the more forward defensive positions*.
Saka and Smith Rowe are the two keys for me. They have a football empathy between them which I hope starts turning into goals for the club.
I don’t care who Tottenham start. The one thing I do care about is that the Premier League have promised to crack down on undercutting. So I do hope that the referee gives Kane three red cards tomorrow.
*Arteta has been lavish with his praise for the defensive work of his forwards these last three matches so, I’m going to consider them forward defenders until they start scoring more goals and he praises them for that.
Things I’ve loved today. Grealish all smiles even when he’s being tackled and Martinez sledging Ronaldo and his mate. If we were smarter as a club Jck and Emi would be playing for us.
On your article Tim, is there a precedent for a side which played ultra passive defence but still were in the championship spots come season end? I’d have to do som research but maybe Leicester during their title winning year?
The weirdest observation for me, and also a question, is “is this the latest you’ve ever put a first asterisk in an article”? I remember always having to scroll down whenever I want to see what an asterisk is referring to, but not today (even on mobile!).
Random thoughts aside, I didn’t know Spurs were doing so badly that they were comparable to us! I guess their 1-0 win against City and 9 point start kinda tricked me. Glad to know that they’re doing just poorly, but I have this nagging feeling that this will be the game where Kane will wake up from his slumber. Maybe waking up for a red card? Here’s to hoping.
Xhaka should not be put in the starting line up for this match. If you leave the team hanging the way he did he should have to work his way back to the lineup. I don’t mind if after 45 minutes Arteta decides that he needs Xhaka and brings him on. That would be telling the rest that his talent supersedes his error. But putting him straight on simply means that the Xhaka’s poor performance against City (imagine a player standing on the pitch doing nothing) does not have repercussions. Getting a straight red for a tackle that is not a 50/50 or a last man kind of error, made by a player who has done the same multiple times need to be reprimanded. I am a Xhaka fan, more so than most Arsenal supporters, but I am willing to excuse mistakes that arise due to the opponent being better than you but not the kind where you say, “fuck it, I don’t care, let’s dive into a tackle where you get a red even if you win the ball with 0 contact”
Odegaard is a waste playing the 8. Since we have no 10 in there I feel best we play him there. I think ESR should be pushed out wide where he can make runs from outside inside. Lokonga and Partey should play them and I feel Lokonga should be encouraged to make more runs forward. Against Burnley a lot of link up plays were misplaced because odegaard played deeper and ESR is much more like Ramsey and not a pure 10. They are ghost runners, anywhere in the pitch will do for them to get their goals.
ESR is creative. Plus there is the empathy with Saka up front or even Auba. Odegard ,is a tad slower and needs to turn like a sea schooner like Xhaka, but of course much faster.
Therefore Tim’s setup gets the best of both, since way down Odegard gets time to manoeuvre for his excellent through balls
Do you not think, with respect that you are relying too much on statistical analysis?
American football might lend itself to such considerations, because it is so stop/go.
Soccer, as I will call it to highlight the difference, depends on a continuous flow of action with only occasional stops for goal kicks, free kicks and throw-ins.
It is, surely, not the individual actions that matter, rather than the sum of the whole.
The sum of the whole of our play is rubbish from start to finish with little inspiration or creativity.
I doubt whether any club views a game against us with any trepidation because the sum of the whole is so bad.
In 20 months we have seen no pattern of coaching that indicates anything that gives us confidence that we are heading in the right direction.
The nonsensical suggestion repeated many times last season that Arteta was concentrating on defence and succeeding with it, has been shown to be that, nonsense, so much so that he bought in 5 new defenders who have all played multiple times.
Amn, who hardly appeared last season now gets a regular game.
I anticipate at least one penalty against us, as part of Kane’s rehabilitation. If he cannot be bothered to do what he he used to be quite good at, then he is likely to compensate by doing what what he does next best.
In my pessimistic world, a defeat is inevitable, which means that we may actually win.
Enjoy your humble pie m8
Great preview Tim
I agree with JJGSOL with regards to the dubious predictive value of some of the advanced stats especially the defensive stats. Last season we were 3rd best in the league at preventing the opposition from scoring and we had a bad run of form at the start but I think we are back on track in terms of defense. Time will tell
With regards to Saka and ESR being the critical part of our game I think we are counting on them for a lot and I am not sure that is wise. So far this year they have given us very little and we have seen this sort of thing happen lots of times before. Great start and a lot of optimism but we have seen plenty of players who end up hitting a career plateau that is not nearly as high as we had hoped. If they are really going to be the critical players that lead us up the table in future years they have to start producing end product which so far has not happened. Unless they start to develop end product they will be the next Ox and Iwobe and what we need from them is the next Pires and Sanchez. I hope I am wrong but our history suggests the likelihood of them developing end product is not very good.
Guess ESR and Saka didn’t exactly read your script and decided to buck the trend of us Spursing in the NLD Bill. Glad to see the fire in our game and the one touch football we are delivering has been sublime and quite devastating in the first half.
Glad the change finally came. Fingers crossed, mau we do even better in the second half! COYG!
No, ESR and Saka didn’t read Bill’s script. Just as well they don’t follow this website.
“I am always happy when we’ve got players from the academy in the first team because they carry a dream to play in games like this, and to score goals in them.
Two of our brightest young talents, Emile Smith Rowe and Saka, not only did that, they completely ran the show.
Arteta deserves some credit for that, because he used them in the right positions, on the left and right wing. It was just one part of how he really made the best use of his squad for this game.”
Martin Keown BBC News 27/9
Over 400 games for Arsenal.
Won 10 club honours
43 England caps
Came through the Arsenal Academy system.
I’ll let him know, there’s a bloke on the web called Bill who begs to differ.
Arteta’s Arsenal.
It’s OK to say it.
When we look back on Arteta’s career 4 years from now, this could perhaps come to be seen as the turning point for him — the game that kept him in this job.
He was spot-on with selections and tactics today, and Spurs couldnt live with our mobile front line. THIS is how you play to Aubameyang’s strengths. Pepe getting benched was key. To me he either plays on the left or not at all. On the right, he slows everything down looking to check onto his left, even though he’s improved his two-footed play.
A great team performance, from back to front. Our young Lions, ESR and Saka, outstanding.
This was a huge test for The Project, passed with distinction.
It’s still early, but that 9 figure offer from City that Spurs turned down for Harry Kane isn’t looking the best business decision in the world right now. And Son is now the undisputed main man at Spurs.
That was a fun match to watch.
-Counter attacking was on point today. I especially liked watch Odegaard drop deep, collect, dribble back to drag a midfielder in, then spring a counter attacking pass. Brilliant awareness of space. This is where he is different from Cesc and Ozil. Those two would have looked to turn their marker. Odegaard drags in.
– Tomiyasu is a very eye catching defender. Someone on this blog implied he was nothing but a t-shirt sales acquisition. Firstly, Japan isn’t that big a market. Secondly, he is a really good defender. He tackles hard, seems to play at full pelt all the time, and has a calm demeanor. He has a bit of Branislav Ivanovic about him.
– Xhaka had a good game, and was the right choice to double pivot the midfield. With Tomiyasu acting as an extra midfielder advancing the ball, Xhaka’s scope of work was simplified and he could focus on slamming those passes.
– Saka has that deceiving live grenade style of play that’s so unpredictable.
Well, I only saw the second half of the second half but I caught up on the highlights. The chemistry in the front 4 is finally starting a click, and the feelgood factor of consecutive victories is helping lift morale. Auba is back to doing Auba things, including his penchant for memorable celebrations, and ESR and Saka are back among the goals. Obviously hugely enjoyable!
This should not be underestimated: This was one of the only times I have ever seen us have a completely clean bill of health before a game! Everyone is available?? That NEVER happens at Arsenal. But it’s crucial. We had some firepower on the bench (Lacazette, Pepe) and also capable backups (Sambi) and utility guys (AMN) that give the manager a lot of options.
And now Arteta has to make a decision on who should partner Partey because I’ll place a sizeable bet that Granit Xhaka is done for the season with a ruptured cruciate ligament. I know Xhaka is a 4 letter word to some, but his absence will be felt. We are a stronger squad with him fit and available.
I do agree with Tim and have been suggesting a Partey-Odegaard partnership. I suspect he will be loathe to break up that front 4 now though. Chances are we will see Sambi get a run in the first team, but this is a blow to our depth in an important position.
Fabulous start to the game and excellent result. Tim was right about ESR and Saka making the diffference. Hopefully this is the start of a run of good form.
Shawn.
1 game does not reverse 20 years of history but time will tell with ESR and Saka
Claude. Its a bit early to say that everything changed in 1 game against a struggling Spurs team today and Arteta has suddenly figured it all out. Just a couple games ago he was in danger of being sacked. Managers don’t go from tactically inept to brilliant in 1 game.
I think you missed the “could perhaps”, which is a big, fat caveat.
Will be most happy for the two hale end lads to prove history otherwise. If I’ve ever been short of hope, I would never have survived being an Arsenal fan the past two over decades 😊
Well that was a pleasant surprise. although I only saw the first half and by all accounts the 2nd half was nothing by comparison.
One swallow does not make a summer and one good first half against the scum does not mean that Arteta is home and dry.
People were saying that after the Chel£ki win last seaso0n and it was downhill all the way.
Also ,if Garry Neville can be believed and I dislike and distrust him enough to have my doubts, we were somewhat flattered by a poor scum performance.
Let us see if Arteta’s spots have indeed changed or it is another blip in a misleading direction.
Tottenham has been on an unprecedented slide. I worried a bit after Chelsea hammered them last week that we would see a backlash but it never materialized. Credit to Arsenal for that first and foremost but you sense something isn’t right with them.
Arsenal’s run of form has coincided with a settled lineup that has quality up front and solidity at the back. We finallly have a fit squad full of good players who all want to be here and my eye tells me they all seem to be pulling together. If that keeps up, sky’s the limit.
Only Norwich.
Only Burnley.
Only Spurs. The list grows….
happy with the performance and the result. in the first half, arsenal were scintillating. i hope we can push on but, like tim’s stats point out, spurs are being spurs this season.
doc, i hope you’re wrong about xhaka. that was not only a nasty collision but xhaka’s reaction was hard to behold. he’s a tough guy so he walked off the field. i fear that if it weren’t that serious, he would have tried to continue. if he is out, arsenal will miss his sword.
i think the biggest take away from this arsenal performance was the crowd. they were so loud, they drowned out arteta trying to bark instructions from the touch line. as a result, the players had the freedom to focus on their game and not listen to someone trying to micromanage them. yay, emirates stadium crowds. another thing that’s clear is that arteta enjoys the crowd. his unbridled emotional reaction to the goals was a display i’d never seen from him.
It’s Spurs.
Stone face will be back soon.
Loved it.
Claude
Fair enough. I did not really take into account the could perhaps
Doc.
If our form depends on having a fully fit squad then then it might be a problem because that is not going to happen very often.
Enjoy this win.
Don’t think too far ahead, or about anything else.
We won the Derby! Emphatically and in style.
Who would have imagined this before the inter lull, just a few weeks ago? Auba doing the the Henry statue pose in front of the away section after scoring? That man sealed his stature in my books after that.
And doing so we bestowed a special gift to S%&$s. They are now the first team in PL history to go below the last place team after being top after only three weeks!
That alone will put a smile on my face until the next match. Also, a big shout out to Arsenal women who destroyed Manchester City to go top. That match is on my cloud storage waiting to be watched as well.
I only saw the highlights, I’ll watch the match properly later, so can’t really comment too much. It’s only one result, Nuno clearly got it wildly wrong in the first half, and on that basis you could say that fate played into our favour. That won’t be the case every week, and there is still a lot of work to be done. Many of the criticisms of the last few weeks are still valid.
But.
What was particularly great to see on the teevee was the joy in the stadium and the mutual energy being built between fans and players. Auba needs the crowd, needs positivity, his energy is love and he’s been bereft of that energy throughout lockdown and during the low times. If he’s rediscovered that bond then I’m going to be much more confident about his season. Saka and ESR, what a fantastic day for them, trading goals and assists in front of the home support. Bill’s concerns are valid, so it’s difficult to overstate how important it is to see them score and create.
The midfield apparently finally looked like a midfield, with Xhaka, Partey and Odegaard all getting excellent reviews. And solidity all across the backline, with particular praise for White leading by example, and for Tomi’s solidity. Hunger, passion and confidence running through the team. What a change.
I know people have their problems with the manager, but for me he cares deeply about the club, the players and the fans and he showed it on the touchline.
He and Edu have built a very likeable team. Every position has someone in it now with character, quality and hunger. I don’t think you can do that if you don’t have those qualities yourself. In some cases it’s been a revelation – for example I didn’t even know that I didn’t like Leno until Ramsdale came in – but now there’s a player in every position who I actively want to watch.
There’s a long way to go and there will be bumps in the road, but it does feel like we moved into a new stage of the journey yesterday.