2020/21 Arsenal Season Diary pt.4:

21 comments

1. Ok, I’ve put some thought into it and I think I understand the summer squad overhaul.

   The intended system is a 4-2-3-1, so we are looking for players to fit into those positions. Ideally we want a pipeline for each position; 1) First choice and 2) backup/understudy. I tried to find a pithy word to summarize role I believe is envisioned for that position as well as a football manager style star rating out of 5 next to each player to highlight my level of enthusiasm about their suitabiility for that role. ??? represents areas that I believe the club is targeting this summer. By my count that’s 7 (!!!) new players, 4 of whom are intended as first choice: RB, RCB, RCM, and CAM.

   The following players currently on the books don’t make my squad because they’re either strongly linked with a move away or I don’t see a role for them in the 21 man depth chart below. They are: Runarsson, Bellerin, Mavropanos, Maitland-Niles, Torreira, Kolasinac, Saliba, Xhaka, Willock, Guendouzi, Willian, Nelson, Nketiah. That’s 13 players who are eligible to leave us, but only three of them played significant minutes as first choice in their position last season.

   GK
   1. Leno (4)
   2. ??? [Onana, Mat Ryan]

   RB (The Security, covers for others)
   1. ??? [T. Adams, Vanderson]
   2. Cedric or Chambers (3)

   RCB (The Initiator, first point of the attack and defense)
   1. ??? [Kounde, Ben White]
   2. Holding (3.5, not an initiator!) or Chambers (3.5 also but the better option)

   LCB (The Sweeper, mops up and recycles)
   1. Gabriel (4)
   2. Mari (3)

   LB (The Flank, joins the attack)
   1. Tierney (4.5)
   2. ??? [Doig]

   RCM (The Possession, dictates the tempo)
   1. ??? [Neves]
   2. El-Neny (2.5)

   LCM (The Runner, provides the horsepower)
   1. Partey (4)
   2. ??? [Lokonga]

   RAM (The Scorer; cuts inside to shoot)
   1. Pepe (4.5)
   2. Saka (4)

   CAM (The Maestro, knits it all together)
   1. ??? [Odegaard, Maddison]
   2. ESR (4)

   LAM (The Scorer’s Apprentice; gets crosses in)
   1. Saka (4.5)
   2. Martinelli (3)

   CF (The Finisher, gets on the end of stuff)
   1. Aubameyang (4.5)
   2. Lacazette (4)

   1. doc, you have saka on the left and on the right; still need another striker. i’d put aubameyang on the left and get another #9; perhaps balogun or isak. i’ve talked plenty about how i feel auba’s not really a #9. we’ll see what happens.

      i’m not a fan of a lot of change at once. this is what you seem to be suggesting but arsenal would be foolish to do that. there needs to be a degree of continuity in order to have success. likewise, it takes people time to adapt. look at how slowly chelsea began their campaign after so much change. they struggled to beat good teams that knew their role and each other. add to that, arsenal aren’t buying the kind of quality chelsea bought. neither do they have the managerial talent that chelsea possess.

      i appreciate the points claude made concerning managerial skill. understand, i come from a military background so we make do with the soldiers we have available and trust me, we didn’t always have the best and brightest. also, the military isn’t a game. we had wars to fight and people could die. this is where leadership and management skill is so important. to simply dismiss a prospect because you don’t fancy them is not a unique skill; any idiot can do that. the government spent a lot of money training, feeding, an clothing these prospects. likewise, they had contracts. you have to be able to take those proverbial lemons and make lemonade. can arteta do that? it seems he’s done a few players dirty. we’ll see.

2. Doc, thoughtful and intriguing squad building. But for me, Arsenal would be crazy to allow Edu and Arteta that level of churn. We’re not going to buy our way to positional perfection. That’s NINE new names I count in your squad building. Arteta has simply got to raise the level of some of the players on his books. What if neither him or Edu is there in 2 years? We mega-churn again with the new coach and DOF? What is the rationale in selling a 21 y/o MFer who can get you 10 goals a season (while keeping Elneny)? Selling Saliba, who has done well in half season of top flight football in France, and for whom we now have a body of work on which we can base a judgement?

   I agree with Arsene… a very high level of churn can destablise a squad. To that end, a second or 3rd year player is more valuable than a new one. Our first look at a clumsy Adebayor told us that Arsene had made a mistake. Look how he grew as a CF when given opportunities. We cant argue for settled management, but in favour of an unsettled squad.

   Also, what sort of club are we? How can we scoff at Chelsea, but think that our own solution is buy buy buy. We have to create value, not destroy it buy not giving a single minute to a 27m asset, who curiously performed well elsewhere. Think long term, as Liverpool did in bringing in players like Coutinho and selling them at the right time (though to argue against myself, we do not have that market now).

   Priorities 1. a quality LB –the oft injured Tierney means he’ll get games. 2. A more defensive minded replacement for Hector. 3. A class midfield distributor to replace Xhaka; one who can get you more goals… a Jorginho type. 4. A classic 9 to replace Laca. I like Isak, the Eritrean/Swede to whom we’ve been linked. 5. A 10 to complement/ease the burden on/compete with ESR.

   Even with Mustafi and Sokratis gone, the CB position is congested, confused, needs winnowing and clarity. Is Holding good enough if he’s not going to, as we say in cricket, “trouble the selectors?”. We clearly dont want Mavropanos (CB) or Kolasinac at LB/LWB. But if I were Josh, I’d push back against sales of Saliba, Guen and Willock and tell Mikel and Edu, “make it work. Build value”.

   Tim Stillman made an excellent point on twitter, in a really good thread of comments:
   “The job of Arsenal manager, in my view, is about working with slightly misshapen or even broken young talents and building them back up. The perfect, unbroken ones that don’t have bones and blisters are not available to Arsenal”.

   To which there was this response:
   “I see so many people defending asset destruction because ‘he’s a bad guy’ or some other flaw. But all of these guys are challenging to some extent. RVP was a problem player before he came to Arsenal. Part of the job is trying to fix damaged things” (which is a point I’ve mede here).

   and this:
   “If you can only make it work with perfect players with great attitudes who are exactly the qualities you want with precisely the experience you need then…. You’re not good at your job”.

   Can I have an amen? We’re not going to buy 9 new, class players, folks. We’re just not. Much of the solution is internal. If the manager is up to the job of finding it.

   1. Hey thanks for your comment.

      I think it’s 7 and not 9 but still a lot, I agree with you there. The argument against “just making it work” is that it hasn’t worked and that’s been through 3 managers. You can’t have it both ways. “Hey Mikel, play the youngsters” is not compatible with “Hey Mikel, get us back to the CL.” Which is it?

      Certainly we have tried the latter by buying veterans for the short term, which hasn’t worked out either and ultimately set us further back. Thinking about buys like Luiz, Sokratis, Cedric and so on.

      But we also gave plenty of chances to the young players like AMN, Guendouzi and Willock and we know all about Chambers and Holding by now. Joe Willock had the purple patch to end all purple patches in a system that he won’t play in at Arsenal. I think he will be a great acquisition for someone who wants to use him like that. But at Arsenal, Asking him to be part of a double pivot against a pressing side of any caliber would be borderline suicidal and he is no winger or #10. A lot of these young players may have decent careers but they’re not what Arsenal needs right now. It’s the equivalent of sticking with Denison or Bendtner while hoping for a breakout season. You have to be decisive and sell high when you have the opportunity. If Arsenal can do that then they have a chance to pull off a fairly comprehensive overhaul.

      1. ““Hey Mikel, play the youngsters” is not compatible with “Hey Mikel, get us back to the CL.” Which is it?”
         ____________________

         That’s a false choice. One, would you choose Willian over the youngster named Saka? Two, we finished 8th and 8th with the non youngsters these past 2 seasons. Willock would be part of a squad, and you need all types. This would be the perfect example of a coach actually coaching. The knack of scoring goals from midfield is one that few players possess. Some like to equate that with “bombing forward”, but that is to misunderstand the style of play. It takes great timing. The youth can be a real weapons for us. He’s young, knows the league and can provably perform well in it.

3. Great notes.

   Ceballos gets a mention. Dont know what to make of him. He could go from good to ordinary game by game. He has some strengths, includingg good close control in congested areas and defensive bite when he put his mind to it, but he seems to have gone backwards in his second season with us.

   Have to say that Chambers at RB works for me. Not perfect, but more defensive security than Hector (a better all-round player).

   In that West Ham game, we saw the best and worst of Arsenal. Dozy defending, and great fight to get a draw out of it.

   More props for Emile. I love love love his running into space. But towards the end of the season, he was tiring on the hour. It’s really important that we don’t overwork him. And oh, give him the Number 10 shirt already

4. I believe it is correct that new players tend to take at least a season to adjust, especially those that come form foreign leagues, where the style of play is different.

   So, perhaps, we will see a different and improved version of Partey next season. I for one was considerably underwhelmed by his contribution since he came.

   He is the prime example of a player has been talked up by the blogs to possibly being something he is not.

   To replace even 3 players is asking for trouble. or 9 is clearly ridiculous.

   A manager’s prime job is to manage.

   A good manager can work with players who have faults and get them to remove or at least minimise them

   The suggestion that anything up to half of our squad is not good enough and cannot be managed by the manager is nonsense.

   He has brought in many players since he came and appears to be incapable of managing even those, let alone the ones he already had, especially the younger players with so much potential.

   I note that there is one blogger to suggesting that Madrid would like to swap Odegard for ESR.

   I can see Arteta agreeing to that, simply because ESR’s style of play does not fit in with Arteta’s.

   He does things which are unexpected whilst Arteta wants his players to do what they are told, only. I dare say that From what we have seen of Odegard, he is prepared to play within Arteta’s parameters, possibly to ensure that he gets to pay, rather than sit n the bench in Madriid.

5. Well I like Claude’s / Tim Stillman’s comments above, and agree with them up to a point. I like the idea that you have to build value not just buy it, but there are three things with that.

   The first thing is I don’t think you can expect managers to fix every player who isn’t working. The key is to identify the players who are fixable, to see the opportunities that maybe the players themselves don’t even see.

   That could be in terms of their positions – Henry was converted from a winger to a striker. Lauren was converted from a midfielder to a right back, Pires was switched from the right to the left. Or it could be in terms of putting faith in their ability – as with Toure, Song, Eboue, Eduardo, Kos, Clichy or any other number of players Wenger picked from relative obscurity. Or it could be in terms of attitude – Wenger showed Van Persie that he had to be able to justify his own arrogance.

   It’s also notable that even Wenger couldn’t do much with players like Merida, Jeffers, Bentley, Gervinho, Chamakh, Park, Bischoff, Zelalem, Reine-Adelaide or any of the nearly-men whose attitude or aptitude fell short over the years.

   I can see Guendouzi as the RVP sort of purchase – a young talent with issues and worth sticking with, although I don’t rate him as high as some do. But most of the others we are moving out don’t meet those ciriteria, in that they are either too old (and losing value no matter what), too inflexible, or don’t quite have the level of talent to make it worthwhile (noting that this is not cut and dried, and there are edge cases like AMN that are very hard to call).

   The other part is that you can find value at every price point. For example, I can’t decide if this pursuit of Ben White is smart or not. He’s over £40 million, but if that gives Arsenal their Laporte for the next 8 years then it’s worth every penny, no matter how many centre backs we have right now. And when better to splash out than in a deflated market? £40 for White today compares pretty well with £80m for Maguire in 2019.

   And the third part of this is that just because you cost a lot of money, doesn’t mean you don’t still need coaching. Look at Pepe this last season. Partey still needs to be coached every day, just like Guendouzi does. Opportunity cost. Where do you put your time and focus? I would say that even at £45m Partey has a greater potential upside for the team than Guendo, and therefore you focus on him.

   1. For that last part, more simply, coaching still adds value at every level.

   2. Fair, unarguable points, Greg.

6. Ben White certainly seems a better value than Maguire.
   But is he a good enough value not to even try Saliba? On whom we’ve already spent a fair amount. That’s the one I don’t get, if we’re going to talk about giving opportunities to players with possible issues. Maybe Saliba has those. But he certainly seems to have potential. And he’s already an Arsenal player. Don’t get it.
   I also don’t think we can risk getting rid of Willock. Yes, he probably won’t replicate the end-of-season Newcastle form. But even coming somewhat close to that would be a huge improvement from a scoring perspective compared to the existing midfield. And again, he’s already an Arsenal player, and homegrown, and no AFCON.

   1. My worry is he does with Willock what he did with Nelson – keeps him, benches him and literally destroys all value.

      and we will have even less games to potentially play him this season than Arteta did to play Nelson last.

7. There are many problems with this squad but none is anywhere close to being as big as lack of goal scoring firepower this year or in the foreseeable future. Our 2 best scorers will be 30 and 32 next season. In this century there is not a single Arsenal scorer who has remained productive into his age 32 season. That does not mean that Auba can’t be the exception but betting on a player being the one exception in this century is almost always a mistake and expecting him to return to close to his best form is a very low percentage bet. Laca will be 30 and he has 4 seasons in a row in the low teens so we can’t hope for more. Its possible both could be OK next season but its 100% certain that Auba and Laca are not a long term answer. Pepe hit a run of good form at the end of last season and hopefully he can score in the mid teens but how many times over the years have we seen short runs of good form which were not true harbingers of long term success. After those 3 we have absolutely nothing. We got less then 10 total goals from our central midfield and back 4 combined. Saka and ESR had good seasons but neither of them are scorers and we don’t have a single Arsenal player in this century who has come from the academy and scored more then 10 goals for us in a season so expecting someone from the academy to develop into the scorer we need is not realistic. If our objective is to rebuild a team in the next couple years which is capable of regularly finishing in the top 4 then we have to buy some players who are going to score goals for us

   1. Bill, you’re the “Santori* of 7amkickoff”™️. I can reliably expect to come on here and you’ll argue this single point no matter the topic of the blog.

      *Santori of Arseblog News fame/infamy. Santori went through phases where he had a love-in for Mustafi (when he was going full Mustafi and you should never go full Mustafi) and Flamini (I know, weird right?).

      In both instances; your’s and Santori’s, you might make valid points but it’s without nuance or context. Arsenal don’t create enough quality chances which is why Auba’s goalscoring has cratered. There needs to be a succession plan but our problem is not our goalscorers.

      Anyways, respect your consistency man! ✌️

      1. Santori was banned from here because he was a cyberstalker: followed me on Twitter, here, and on ABN to say the same things over and over again about how much he thinks stats don’t tell the whole story or something.

         1. Wowsers! That’s crazy…

            I take that back, Bill! You might have the consistency of Santori but, by all accounts the comparison ends there.

8. Another concern is what is the true ceiling for Saka and ESR. Since Arsene broke up the 03/04 title team we have seen dozens of young players everyone was excited about and many of them started out really well and raised expectations. However, basically all of them hit a plateau that was significantly lower then we expected. Walcott, Diaby, Denilson, Bendtner, Gibbs, Flamini, Aliadiadaire, Frimpong, Wilshere, Jenkinson, Ox, Iwobe, Coquelin, Bellerin. I am sure there are several others I can’t think of right now and all started well but never really developed into the long term difference making high ceiling players we hoped for. It would be great if young players improve year after year as they become more experienced but that is clearly not what has happened in the last 15 years. Saka and ESR both started well but I think both especially ESR seemed to fade as the initial adrenaline rush of playing with the first team wore off and the league started to figure out their tendencies which has been a familiar pattern.

   Anything can happen and its possible Saka and ESR will be different then all of those players from the past 15 years but history repeats itself more often then not. Planning for these 2 players to be the attacking cornerstones of a future top 4 team may be overly optimistic but only time will tell.

9. If our long term plan is to play a 4231 as Doc suggests then 6 of the 10 outfield players are defensive players and there is only room for 4 attacking players. The 4 attacking players will score the majority of the teams goals. Neither Saka or ESR has shown the ability to score many goals and if you use up 2 of the 4 attacking positions with low scoring players then simple math tells you the 2 remaining attacking players have to be prolific scorers to compensate for the relative paucity of goals from the 2 attacking players who don’t score much.

10. I am definitely not suggesting we jettison Saka or ESR. We certainly have plenty of other positions that require attention and spending money. We have to hope that both will be different and break the mold of the younger players from the last 15 years and continue to get better as they gain experience. However, it is way too early to assume they will get better with age and too early to assume we have the #10 position and one wide forward spot covered with top 4 level players for the foreseeable future. Myself I have more confidence about Saka then ESR but there is downside to having a low scoring player at one of the wide forward positions for the long term.

11. Off subject, is anyone else watching this on ESPN in English sick of hearing Taylor Twellman as the in-game analyst, or am I just being peevish?

    1. He’s pretty poor.

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