On Wednesday I found myself joylessly watching Arsenal and wondering why. It was the 80th minute, the score was 1-1, and Arsenal had taken just three shots, total, in 80 minutes. Two of those shots were from outside the 18 yard box, both blocked. My expected goals model doesn’t even count blocked shots outside the 18 yard box because they have such a small chance of going in.
Worse than the fact that Arsenal had only taken one real shot up to that point was the fact that Arsenal weren’t even getting into positions to get more shots. Players weren’t making the runs needed to unpack the Crystal Palace defense, there was little to no attempt to break down the opposition in one-v-one situations, and virtually every time Arsenal had the ball, they passed it to the wide man (usually Pepe) so that he could feign a dribble and pass back. It was Arteta-ball 101, return of the Willian. With Smith Rowe, Saka, Odegaard, and Nicola Pepe all playing Willian.
What was I doing watching this? It was joyless football, every player going through repeated patterns of play, technocratic, perfectly designed to make sure that Arsenal don’t concede.
I understand what Arteta wants from his team and also why he does it. He wants us to build up attack in a way that is very similar to Pep Guardiola: the idea is that we need to move the ball into certain positions, in order to get our players set, so that we can press more easily up top and thus are difficult to hit on the counter. It’s pretty smart football in that we defend by keeping the ball and making sure that our patterns are constructed properly to minimize exposure in midfield and down the flanks.
And Arteta has proven that this works: Arsenal have conceded just 39 goals this season, third best in the League (xGA of 43, which is 5th in the League). Contrast that to last season where we conceded 48 goals (57 xGA, 12th in the League) or the season prior where we conceded 51 (also 57 xGA). Even big chances against have improved somewhat: down from 69 in 2017/18, to 77 in 2018/19, to 72 in 2019/20, to 57 this season. There’s no question at this point: Arteta has improved the defense.
But to achieve this we have to sacrifice huge swaths of the game to game management. Most of the time when the counter is on we slow down and get ourselves set for defending rather than press our advantage. And then there’s the weird probing rather than overlapping, or getting players into the box to create chances.
I get it. We don’t have a Fernandinho in midfield. Someone who can mop up, get away with professional fouls, and also control the tempo of the game. Xhaka can control the tempo of the game but can’t be trusted to mop up. Partey isn’t as good defensively as many had hoped. Out wide we have several players who have either lost a step or who have never had that extra step (Bellerin, Chambers, Soares) and the center backs tend to be error-prone. We’ve been over all of this before. We know what the problems are, why Arteta is playing football this way, and how he’s getting results. But good lord is this joyless to watch.
Even when we do strike, finally, I rarely feel elation. When Martinelli bundled the ball over the line in the 83rd minute I was actually annoyed. I get what we are doing but why didn’t we do this 10 minutes earlier? Why couldn’t he have made more of those runs? Why not earlier in the game? Why can’t we have structure and also a little bit of fun at the same time?
It reminds me of the two-legged tie against Villarreal in the Europa League. I get the logic: we needed to make sure that they didn’t score because if they did score, then we needed to score three to go through and that’s a pretty unlikely scenario. So, we went and played game management football. Smart. I get it. I also hate it.
I thought I would like smart, organized football. Remember when Wenger just played the same way every time and it was open and wild and sometimes we would get one of those “basketball” matches where everyone was sprinting for half the game? I hated those games too, but only when we lost, which wasn’t very often.
I think we have only had one of those “Basketball” games this season (against Leeds) and even that didn’t last long. Nah, we aren’t sending fullbacks up to overlap (like Emery) and we aren’t going to play those incredible ladder passes (like Wenger). We are just going to play smart football. If Wenger-ball was like Ornette Coleman, and Emery-ball was like Carl Orff, Arteta-ball is like Yes – but just one song, Owner of a Lonely Heart. It’s a good song, played by some of the best musicians, technically perfect, and good to listen to for a bit, but it’s not taking many artistic chances. Especially given the pedigree of the musicians who wrote it. It’s a song crafted for commercial success.
And how the fuck is this a criticism??? Isn’t this what we all wanted for so many years under Wenger? Isn’t commercial success what so many football fans want? Everton fans would snap my hands off and crush them for a commercially successful football club.
I guess I like chaos in football and Arteta’s entire plan seems to be to bring order to football, with an iron fist. And my hope for the future, and what I think many others are wishing for next season, is a bit more adventure. Guardiola’s teams have a good balance of organization and chaos. He’s famous for his “15 pass” rule (where they aren’t allowed to take a shot until they have made 15 passes) but he’s also known for telling his players to “attack like hell” once that structure is set. Arteta’s Arsenal gets the structure set, gets into the final third, has some great attacking players, but instead of attacking like hell, attacks like heck. Or maybe even “darn.”
I think it’s because everything he does is mathematical. We approached Villarreal mathematically. We attack mathematically. He’s not going to play the youth tomorrow because there’s a mathematical chance that we might get 7th place and get into Europe. He knows we need to be in Europe to keep our UEFA coefficient high, because that will give us another chance of getting into the Champions League. He also knows that winning the Europe Conference League gives us a 2nd chance (if we win) of getting into the Europa League. It’s all very logical, all very focused on commercial success.
And it’s boring. Don’t play a Picardy third at the end of every song, man!
‘My job is to take you up to the last third, your job is to finish it’ – I’m always reminded of this quote from Henry about Guardiola while watching Arteta’s Arsenal. Patiently waiting for these moments – ‘But the last third was freedom for us’
https://tribuna.com/en/news/fcbarcelona-2020-10-14-pep-guardiola-once-subbed-thierry-henry-off-as-punishment-for-scoring-a-goal/
This is a tough one for me. Arteta has definitely improved the defense. And we have had pretty good results in league since Christmas.
BUT…while I started following Arsenal during the Graham “1 nil to the Arsenal” years, it was really the attractive, attacking Wenger years that locked me in. Even though we lost a few crazy games in those years, I’d rather see that than low scoring conservativism. Might as well have hired Mourinho for that. Hopefully Arteta has just been establishing a solid base to build on.
Very well said Tim. I totally agree with the analysis and the sentiments.
The essential problem is a lack of security after transitions and it can only be addressed by personnel changes in midfield and fullback.
The recovery run by Gabriel to get back goalside against Zaha the other day was a great example of this. No other CB on this roster makes that, and Zaha probably scores, and that’s game over. That’s the kind of thing we need 3-4 players behind the ball to be able to do before the calculus starts to favor taking more risks.
a few weeks ago, i was talking about how big of a control freak arteta seems to be. it’s as if he’s got a playstation controller in his hand. he’s got to let the players on the field have the freedom to create. some arsenal players see things he can’t and have creative gifts that he doesn’t. that’s not a slight on arteta; creativity wasn’t his gift but it didn’t stop him from being a brilliant footballer. however, it would be a shame to fail to utilize their gifts. we know he’s played with the likes of ozil, cazorla, and ronaldinho so he’s full aware of what brilliance looks like.
this is what management is. we’ve all had a person in a group that was brilliant; simply capable of doing what no one else was capable of. some of us may have even been that special prodigy. does arteta have the humility to allow players the freedom to do what they’re good at?
when mourinho got the real madrid job, i was sure he would jam it up as he, too, was such a control freak. however, madridistas wanted to see attacking football and putting the brakes on the likes of cristiano, benzema, and ozil would have gotten jose run out of town. mourinho did better than i thought he would because he didn’t interfere with that attack. is this an issue for mikel? if so, what will he do?
Excellent analysis as always. I think you have summed Arteta and the football he is trying to play. I really do feel for Mikel because he came into a shitstorm of a football club and then a shit storm of a pandemic which has thrown every team bar Man city and it took them half a season to adjust.
I think in the circumstances he does what any good manager does which is sort out the defence. He inherited a squad full of players that are not good in 1 on 1 duels and lacking in high physical and/or technical capacity therefore his only solution is the employ a highly structured system. It hides a lot of the inherent weaknesses in the squad. I think some of the recent purchases (William aside) and youth talent has improved this area but there is a long way to go.
You talk about basketball football. I hated it. i really did. there was no structure no control and sometimes we end up conceding 4, 5, goals. for me that is not enjoyable even if it means the sometimes we score 4, 5 goals. For a long time I craved the control and structure that Mikel has provided.
I hope that if we can improve the technical and physical level of some of the weaker elements of the squad we will see a team that can create and score more goals. Well that’s my belief anyway and the impact that Smith Rowe has had I think shows where we need to go in terms of playing talent.
i have a question for the readers. The 07/08 team. If Arteta had that squad with that technical level how do you think he would perform?
07/08 was another unbalanced team. Short defenders, non-existent goalkeeper, incredible attackers. Arteta is not a Wenger who would play to his team’s advantages, but would try to ameliorate its deficiencies first.
If Arteta was in charge of that team, He would have paired Song and Flamini in midfield, took out the lightweight Clichy (replaced him with a fast centreback like Gallas/Toure) and paired Gallas/Toure with Djourou/Senderos every match. Fabregas would move into the hole behind Adebayor, and RVP play in the wings or sub with Fabregas every match like ESR/Odegaard today. Arteta really doesn’t seem to like strikers who roam so RVP wouldn’t have been moved to the main strike role.
He would LOVE Hleb though. He was like a Belarussian Willian.
RVP didn’t play as the main striker until 2010 or so, that was Adebayor’s year to lead the line. That 07/08 team also still had Gilberto and had he wanted to play him, Lassana Diarra. Lehman was still here but injured.
I think MA would line up like this:
Lehmann
Sagna Toure Gallas Clichy
Gilberto Fabregas
Walcott Hleb Rosicky
Adebayor
Subs: Van Persie, Eduardo, Eboue, Diaby, Diarra, Flamini, Senderos, Almunia
Thin at CB and LB but otherwise… Not bad! I’d take that squad over this one in a heartbeat.
I totally forgot about Gilberto and Diarra! It’s nice to finally have a manager that loves a proper holding midfielder instead of shoehorning a random Diaby and Denilson there.
I like your team but under Arteta, Walcott is going back on loan to Southampton.
that’s wrong, doc. ’07/’08 was the year that henry left. van persie did replace henry…until he got injured on international duty and was out for most of that season. this is why adebayor became the starter by default.
flamini won his place surprisingly on merit because nobody realized how good he could be until the club had to rely on him that preseason. gilberto being at copa america gave him that opportunity and diarra didn’t come in until the last day of the transfer window, where he incorrectly assumed he’d walk into the arsenal side ahead of flamini. flamini had established a chemistry with fabregas, who’d dropped deeper into midfield behind hleb. flamini was better than gilberto…and diarra. it’s also why gallas, not gilberto, was named captain.
lehmann wasn’t injured but he got dropped because he’d made some mistakes early in the season.
We simply don’t have the players for it. His big buys of the summer were a former dribblebeast turned technical security safety cone, and a good holding midfielder capable of a pass.
His snazzy players who would have fit into a Wenger style basketball system are guys like Xhaka, Martinelli, Pepe and Saka- players that are either too young or too inconsistent. When you have guys like that, a system has to be in place to overcome their deficiencies; if not we are back to that Emery defense tactic of funneling shots to easy positions for Leno to save.
Arteta is a smart guy. He saw what was going on with that Emery defense and made concrete steps to avoid repeating it. What’s missing now is some midfield dynamism to sit beside Partey and join attacks, as well as an experienced playmaker to lighten the weight off ESR.
Judging by our links with Buendia, Zakaria, Brandt and even Ramsey, I think we will get there.
This is exactly how I felt watching that match. It’s not just Elneny. It was Chambers, Pepe, ESR, Tierney, the whole team. Receiving passes with the wrong body shape to do anything except pass straight back. We passed up to pass back, to pass up to pass back, and inched our way up the field in a zig zag, never moving the defence. I think someone took the ball on the half turn maybe once.
I also agree and hope that this is a phase we just have to go through.
Ok fellas, would you rather have Willock or Ramsey next season?
Willock. But really, neither. I would like a CM who can progress the ball on the dribble or pass and bypass the press, who can track back with near elite speed and who can play intelligent positional football in both phases. Not too much to ask surely!
Very much like a fitter Thomas Partey come to think of it.
I loved Aaron and wanted us to renew him, but that chapter is closed. You have to be a Thierry for a comeback like that.
Joe Willock has the potential to score 10 goals a season. Which other EPL midfielder outside of KDB, Gundogan and possibly Pogba can you say that about? He got 6 since January, proving its not a fluke. Jorginho got 7 goals this season. I said earlier that we should keep Willock, and it’d be shortsighted if we don’t. Looks like Arteta agrees.
There are parts of his game he has to work on, but he’s young. The best Arsenal teams carry goal threat from other areas besides the forwards.
Yes that’s been the problem for a lot of the season. The complete inability to find space and turn with the ball, which makes us so stodgy and predictable. Where it breaks down is in midfield. Elneny? Danny Onions? The list goes on. Where does this “Ramsey” story come from? I haven’t heard that. I think Willock is worth persevering with. He’s got something the others haven’t. He’s also “home grown”.
Arteta’s style of football is sleep-inducing.
This isn’t a hyperbole on my part either, but rather a true statement based on how often during watching his Arsenal play I catch myself nodding off.
And I’m not on drugs of any kind, don’t drink or smoke, and was recently conformed as in top health condition by my life insurance carrier at the renewal of my policy.
Yet, when I watch Arsenal play these days I feel like might’ve been bitten by a tsetse fly.
Great analysis Tim, btw.
Top marks for the tse-tse fly reference!! But I hope Arsenal doesn’t give you meningoencephalitis.
Eureka Tom
had even dozing almost every game , so had even given up on the beers or scotch.
Now get it that Arteta is the Valium
yep. me, too! even in the semifinal against villareal; passed out.
Arsenal under Arteta does not attack like hell, heck, or even darn. Especially now that Odegaard seems to have gone off the boil a bit, Arsenal attacks like, like, eh, um.
I suppose the only thing you can say, is that before Christmas we were actually looking like relegation material. It was that bad, if you remember. Apparently, if the league had started on Boxing Day, we would be in 3rd place. Arteta had a bit of luck in that ESR came in and miraculously we started to look like a football team. No one could have expected that.
Bit by bit, he broke up the “German Clique”. He was talking in the papers today about “destructive forces within the club”. He’s done a few things right.
The most disheartening part of this is that even if Arteta has everything go his own way, gets all the players he wants, all the luck with the injury gods and with the refs, his football will still be boring to watch. All his talk of a process, but watching the game shouldn’t feel like drudgery. How does he not understand that? This season City have been much better to watch, but I’m usually not enthused and inspired by Pep’s teams either. A discount version of that is not the stuff of dreams for me, but of nightmares.
As Tom said, Arteta’s football puts us to sleep. But then he haunts my dreams. How did it turn out this way? Feel like screaming “You were the chosen one” at Mikel Anakin Skywalker.
Bet Arteta does not know anything beyond the buzzword ” process” . Have heard him elaborating on it ever ?
Yes. We have done many things that we needed to do and laid a fantastic foundation and now we just need to evolve and with the level of ambition we have we have a great margin for success. Clear as Crystal Palace.
Good to see you around again Shard.
I’d take Wenger’s at times kamikaze football that always had a chance to break your heart over this soulless paint by numbers imitation of the Guardiola style in a New York minute.
Thanks, Tom.
Man I’m so bored of this season. I’m glad it’s almost over. But I’m not sure I have much hope for next season either. Hey, maybe that’s a good thing. Low expectations.
All of you guys talking about wanting sexy football AND wins should buy Brad Gilbert’s book. What’s the title again? I can’t remember 🙂
I don’t watch much live ppv football. The past year has caused me to reorder my priorities. Im as likely to catch a Newcastle or Brighton game on full 90 minute replay as an Arsenal one, and when you watch a game knowing the result, your perspective is different.
To me what we lack is directness. Which is why I find puzzling the sentiment to sell the ONE midfielder we have who can score goals on the regular.
So playing to not lose is the new normal, eh? Is that why we bought the washed up ex-Chelsea winger who doesn’t wing it anymore?
Positives? One, that “look at the table since Christmas” thing. That may be what’s keeping Arteta in the job, provided of course you dont look at said table between August and December. Two, Pepe has broken through, and his numbers are darned good given the minutes he’s had. Three, Saka has grown, even if Emile has come down to earth a bit.
If you asked me if I’d rather have sexy football or 3 points, Im taking the points. If our stolid football is still ineffective, that’s another story.
________________________
Shard, terribly sorry about the murderous toll that COVID-19 is extracting where you are. Ironically, while India is in dire need of vaccines, I have, in my arm, a dose of OAZ that was a free gift from the government of India in early March. I’m very, very fortunate. Take care out there, pal.
Thanks Claude. It hit very close to home. Been a difficult month or so. Hopefully the worst is over for now. As for the government. The worst is yet to come.
Well well well
Lucas Torreira and Kieran Trippier had to leave their two underachieving EPL clubs to go to Spain and win the league.
(yes, I know that Torreira has hardly kicked a ball of late)
On another note, Atletico’s time wasting in the last 15 minutes plus added time was outrageous. 3 minutes added was a joke, and the ref actually ended the game with seconds left on the clock. Should have been 10 minutes added minimum, given how much time the ball wasn’t actually in play.
The big reform I’d like to see in football is reducing regulation time to 35 minutes a half, and stopping the clock when the ball isnt in play. I think you’ll find that they ACTUALLY play more minutes than with the current 45 and running clock. Hate the blatant time-wasting in the sport.
So Arteta has solved our defensive problems?
We had 10 clean sheets in the season, so that means 39 goals conceded in 27 games, that is 3 goals every 2 games.
In the same season we failed to score 12 times and lost 13 games.
It looks like most teams play, not to win, but to prevent the opponent doing so, therefore, the number so goals being scored is down, so it is not surprising that we have let in 39 goals, because the number of goals being scored by the top teams is down.
We will not be buying top players, merely Partey types, heavy on reputation and light on performance.
Arteta seems to have little interest in the youngsters, unless their talents hit him in the face, like Saka.
I am convinced that ESR is still their because he saved Arteta’s bacon in the 1st Che$
Sorry, my last contribution went off unfinished.
I am convinced that ESR is still their because he saved Arteta’s bacon in the 1st Chel$ki game, when his inclusion was more of a fluke than anything else.
If anyone is thinking that Arteta will turn any mediocre new recruit into a top player, then forget about it.
Wenger had the talent and ability to turn a nobody into a star.
Arteta, on the other hand has shown that he can turn stars into nobodies.
His comments today are a disgrace. It is pointing a finger at absent people who he removed because they did not fit in with his process, or simply did not want to.
I expect next season to be more of the same, with Arteta showing an ability to make mediocrity look even more mediocre
This was a fun win, at least the second half was fun. Awesome goals from Pepe. Of course all thoughts are now on the league position and the disappointment of that.
I actually felt that the UEFA conference league thing might be more of a net negative. It’s really hard to compete on the same level in the league after traveling and playing in midweek and your schedule becomes erratic too. I understand that the financial incentives involved are not great and that this is a step down even from Europa level competition. I can see the upside of using the competition as training for the youngsters and so forth but they’re still games we have to win and prepare for. I think this makes MA’s job easier for next season.
I see a lot of comments above about how bad our football has been, or at least unappealing. That is true. I do not expect it to continue to be true. MA is a control enthusiast like Pep, but what makes anyone think he actually liked it or wanted it to look like that any more than us? You can invoke that he’s just not capable of better but that doesn’t ring true for me either judging by the assessment of him from other managers and his own players. He made some errors no doubt, like persisting with Willian. He is still learning on the job.
You don’t know how much I hope you’re right and I’m wrong…
Thanks for the post Tim.
I guess it all comes down to which is more important, results or playing a specific type of football. Arsene had to abandon project youth and his dedication to playing total attacking football because he was not getting the results he needed. In Arteta’s case, any manager who inherits a team that had conceded 51 goals in a row has to know his first priority is improving the defense. Arteta has clearly done that. 3rd place in the table in goals conceded represents fabulous on field management when compared to where we were.
In terms of attack, Its much easier to play something more eye pleasing and similar to Wengerball when your teams had Fabregas or Ozil, Cazorla, Wilshere, Rosicky, Ramsey and Sanchez. If you look at the numbers even when we had those players Arsenal was never really a high scoring team and we never scored enough to keep up with Fergies ManU or even Mourinho’s Chelsea teams. They conceded a lot fewer goals but even with a more defensive mentality those teams consistently outscored us. Even with Ozil, Sanchez, Cazorla and that group we never scored anywhere close to enough goals to compete with Man City or the other teams the won our league in the 2011-17 era. Trying to imitate Arsene’s more eye pleasing football with the wrong group of players would be a disaster and the current squad does not have anything like the type of players Arsene had and that limits what a manager can do. If there anything we can realistically blame Wenger, Emery and Arteta and the front office for is doing a poor job of managing our resources and rebuilding the squad.
You said it Bill. The common thread here is not manager/coach ineptitude nor the spending on transfers or wages, it’s poor decisions that were made in recruitment and retention of players.
The other major factor is the simultaneous improvement in the level of other squads in the league, like Villa, West Ham, Everton and Wolves to name a few. The general standards have risen so much in the last 10 years with the glut of TV money.
Doc
I agree with you completely on both of your points.
The season you reference in which we conceded 51 goals, we scored 73. GD +22
This season by comparison? We conceded 12 fewer goals, but scored 55, which was 18 fewer. GD +16.
Balance, Bill. For me the issue isnt attractive football… it’s effective football. Must say I liked how we finished the season, even if there was a hint of stable doors and horses.
We finished 5th that season you referenced, Unai’s first.
All offered fyi
No doubt we were poor both in terms of performance and results in the first half season but it was inevitable the bad run of form would reverse. I think 8th place in the PL and semifinals in the Europa league is about right where we belong.
If you look at the results I think we seriously over performed compared with reasonable expectations in the second half of this season.
Completely spot on. From an attacking perspective, currently, the team needs to get every pass and every move right to break down an opponent.
That being said, a good defense is essential for a consistent season. Arteta should be able to improve himself significantly, given that he has 18 months net of managerial experience. He needs to learn that against a team weaker than yours we just need to show up 100% and play with freedom. That would get us the result most times. Wenger was pretty good at this.
One thing I would say about Arteta is that most new managers would have not been able to turnaround their season from the lows that Arsenal had till November. That’s a good sign. The bad sign is losing to Villareal – I hope he atleast improves on the mistakes of this game. If he can learn from this game then I think he will improve a lot and that would translate to a successful season. I am also expecting a change in his narrative next season where he no longer mentions how bad the situation at the club was. I think that is history once the new season begins. We will finish above Spurs nest season.
I’m not sure that showing up and being ourselves is enough anymore with how much standards have improved in the PL. there used to be 10+ teams where that should work but even they could beat you with determination and physicality, and often did. Now there are maybe 3-4. This season I would put Sheffield, west Brom, Burnley and Fulham in that category. Everyone else has players and a structure that can hurt you if you don’t plan for them. Even with Burnley, they are the new Stoke and you have to account for their strengths. The other three would inevitably improve every season they get to spend in the PL. There’s very little free lunch left in the PL managerial lounge.
Wenger was really good at letting his teams express themselves. That style did not work against sides that could match up technically with us and that’s why he had such little success against our direct rivals, excepting Tottenham who until the past 5 years or so were vastly inferior with respect to their squad. Arteta is really good at organizing and game planning, so he has found a lot of success against direct rivals, but not so much against teams that defend in a low block against us. Teams learned that quickly and everyone who tried it pretty much got a result. A simple tactic that nullifies Aubameyang’s ability to run into dangerous space and reduces us to low percentage crosses that even average defenders can gobble up. That’s what requires freedom and invention, but that freedom can’t come at the cost of playing into their hands by committing cheap turnovers in key areas. That’s the balance that a player like Odegaard and ESR helped us achieve and in large part turned the season around. Odegaard was a huge miss against Villareal as well where that low block once again made us toothless. He has to be a priority signing for us.
Interesting comments, and it’s been good following the season with you all. Some disagreements along the way but mostly constructive ones. Speaking mostly for myself I think many of us who have followed Arsenal for decades and have grown used to a certain level of quality are still figuring out how to unpick what exactly it is that we’re seeing.
We’re better organised and stronger defensively, but it’s now clear to me that if you only have defence then you have no chance of finishing higher up than mid-table. And also, if you’re struggling to score, then the odd defensive error will hurt you much harder, and we saw that on many occasions. Defensive lapses get amplified, but overall I don’t think we make too many so I’m basically happy with where we are defensively. A new LB and I hope that Saliba can slot in and make an impact – though if he stays and plays he will almost certainly make his own mistakes, and we have to be ready for that.
We have a lot of work – and recruitment – to do in midfield and up front. I don’t think Saka, ESR, Martinelli and Willock are going to be enough. I love Saka, but if he had started over Pepe at Brighton I don’t think we would have scored twice. We need players like Pepe, Partey, Laca (or his replacement), Auba and Odegaard (or his replacement) to perform at a much higher level, much more consistently, otherwise we are mid-table.
As for the manager, it’s been such a hard year to judge Arteta. We are no better off in terms of points than last year, and we have finished 3 places lower in the table. Grounds for calling him a failure, but I think that masks a lot of fundamental work that’s gone on. He’s improved our organisation on the pitch, he’s improved some players like Xhaka and Pepe, he’s allowed young players to thrive. His systems and his conservatism might be limiting our creative players, but I fundamentally feel that they should be good enough to play in any system.
Maybe the best thing he helped to achieve this year was getting rid of so many disruptive, toxic or otherwise negative influences. It may be that our turnaround in December – Jan was because of ESR as a 10, it may also be because that was when we finally said goodbye to Ozil, Mustafi, Kolasinac and Sokratis, after also shipping out Torreira and Guendo in October. I’m sure most of those players are not returning, and not all of them for football reasons.
Comments here and there have given an insight to just how divisive, negative and out of control the dressing room was when Arteta arrived, and I give him a lot of credit for tackling that situation head on and doing the necessary dirty work, even accepting short-term problems on the pitch as a result, when late-era Wenger and Emery both appeared to be avoiding it at best, and a contributing factor at worst.
Hopefully now we can move forward with more stability, a tighter squad and better confidence, allowing the key players to forget this season’s problems and play with freedom.
A quick look at the season’s stats and they illustrate how Arteta got men behind the ball but struggled to create from that platform. Look forward to Tim’s analysis.
9th on goals scored, 3rd on goals conceded.
Rock bottom on tackles, pressures, interceptions, but top of the league on number of times dribbled against – defence through organisation and controlling the space.
Low chance creation and wayward shooting – 12th on key passes, 13th on SOT, 17th on % of shots that were on target.
Lots of passing but little penetration – 5th on the total distanced we passed the ball, but only 13th in terms of how much of that was forwards.
I mean the stats speak for themselves in terms of the style we are playing – well organised, men behind the ball, retain as much possession as possible, be very patient and conservative with forward passing, create few chances. From a defensive standpoint that’s fine but no way we head up the table unless we get more effective in our use of the ball.
Greg, I haven’t seen any evidence that the guys that you tag as disruptive have been dressing room poison, and dare I say I dont believe you have either. We have to careful of slandering people. Mustafi, for example, was a well liked member of the squad, and did some outstanding work for the Islington community. The club hierarcy and manager praised him highly. He left because of his football. Youre being unfair to him. Auba, whom Arteta clearly liked, wanted and pushed to stay, was supposed to be the leader of a disruptive Francophone clique. Thats what the rumours said. People agglomerate and hang out based on language.There’s a Brazilian core as well. Ozil and Auba were very close (I saw that in a lifestyle video) as they were both keen gamers. With Ozil, we do not know all the facts, but the fact he couldn’t make the match day squad for a game against Wheelbarrow United pointed to something more and deeper than football. I guess we’ll have to wait for the books on the inside story.
We are worse of in the table, in points, in GF, in GD, but better off in GA. We are out of Europe for the first time in 25 years. I guess you can say that he turned Arsenal into Everton or an Allardyce side, which wasn’t his brief. Hard to beat, midbtable but average and with little attacking flair. The cast he had and the money we spent tell me that he should have extracted more from his resources. Emery gets more with far less with a bang average Villareal squad. Moyes and Rodgers got more with far less. What exactly is the case for retaining Mikel, except nostalgia and being the Pep apprentice?
With Arteta, people want to see a glass half full, and that’s fine. Left up to me, I’d have replaced him, based on the brutal rules of the results game. Nothing personal. We went backwards. But as a gooner, he’s going to get my full support on match day, and a clear eyed, dispassionate review of his performance after. And btw, I supported his appointment.
I don’t understand the impulse to sack the manager when the results aren’t immediately what you want. Yes it’s a results game but what evidence do we have that another guy would be any better? I mean isn’t that the point, rather than a punitive gesture of “this is not acceptable at a club like….” and details be damned. For me you sack the manager when it’s clear that the players aren’t playing for him, when he proves he’s reached his ceiling, or when you are desperate because you’re going to get relegated. You also sack him when you’re Chelsea and have more money than patience or when you’re Tottenham and are you actively trying to prove to the world that you’re a big kid now.
I made this same argument in defense of Wenger. Have we improved since he was forced out? Forget that though, viva la revolucion, bring out the guillotine! It won’t help but it’ll make us feel better that someone had to pay for our misery, right?
It’s not an impulse. There are clear arguments and metrics for replacing Arteta. And they have been laid out in some detail by commenters, on this post and others. I don’t want to rehash them. Scrolling would work just as fine.
The reason for keeping him, it seems to me, are hopeful and speculative. In fairness, he has improved the defence and we are no longer embarrassingly outmatched against the Top Six (except Liverpool), but many low-level premiership coaches have made their team harder to beat over the years. You need balance. And it’s not as if he has a body of work to show us he can do significant turnaround.
Arsenal has gone backwards on the football field. The evidence is irrefutable. I’ll say it again… he underachieved on the points table with the cast that he had. He has a far better squad than Moyes or Rodgers.
That said…
1. Im not fussed about keeping him on probation till Christmas
2. I will always want an Arsenal team and coach to succeed. And if he does, I’ll be happy for him. If he does a turnaround that earns him a long, long tenure, I’d be happier still
I guess what Im saying is that Im not fussed either way. These days I look at AFC through a totally pragmatic, non-emotional lens.The case for replacing him is stronger than the case for keeping him.
That you dont know if the other chap will be better is always true. But that will never be a good argument against well-planned change. I’d prefer a club (or a business for that matter) make better hires than stick with a manager who isnt working out.
Aye, no slander intended. Mustafi was by all accounts decent. And I don’t bear any of them particular malice. But no matter how lovely they all are individually, it can’t help morale and cohesion having all those non-playing players on big wages sitting around half in and half out of the club.
I guess I don’t really want to point fingers at any individuals because I just don’t know, but it seems clear that dressing room politics were an issue, both for those who have departed and those who remain.
https://talksport.com/football/841826/schalke-bundesliga-first-team-leadership-sacked-shkodran-mustafi-sead-kolasinac-player-revolt/
Kolasinac and Mustafi led a player revolt which saw the entire first team leadership sacked at Schalke this season.
https://www.caughtoffside.com/2021/04/21/video-arsenal-star-sead-kolasinac-and-castaway-shkodran-mustafi-run-away-as-furious-schalke-fans-run-riot-after-relegation/
Fans were so incensed at Schalke’s relegation that they mobbed the team bus and chased Kolasinac and Mustafi…
https://www.caughtoffside.com/2021/04/21/video-arsenal-star-sead-kolasinac-and-castaway-shkodran-mustafi-run-away-as-furious-schalke-fans-run-riot-after-relegation/
Along with Ozil being the highest paid social media admin in the history of advertising and marketing (checking out from professional football after giving his country the middle finger, having a dictator as his best man and occasionally surfacing from his “injuries”/Fortnight career to sit on the Arsenal bench)…
I don’t think it’s a stretch to see how these 3 players were problematic to the dressing room.
what you’ve posted is revisionist history and it’s despicable. schalke were a poorly managed club and the management team’s position was untenable well before mustafi and kolasinac arrived. likewise, they weren’t the only ones mobbed by the schalke fans that night.
closer to home, those three gentlemen aren’t the reason arsenal were as low as 16th place and arsenal finished out of europe. lastly, like claude, i’ve never heard any report about any of those guys being a disruption in the dressing room, at arsenal or anywhere else. we know of mesut and mustafi’s philanthropic endeavors in london and abroad. we also saw the character of kolasinac, defending his friend from an armed assailant. if arteta got rid of those guys, it was for sporting reasons.
don’t go for the mickey mouse media headlines. anyone wanting to vilify arteta will post about how arteta’s jealousy of ozil and mustafi winning world cups is the reason the were allowed to leave the club.
You can be philanthropic and still not be a nice person.
Take the cases of sportswashing like Oligarchs and human rights abusing nation states acquiring clubs and funding by fossil fuel companies like Gazprom sponsoring the world cup and CL or Azerbaijan hosting the EL final last year. Not quite philanthropy but similar “intent” and outcome.
It’s PR. And in the case of high net worth individuals like footballers, can be a tax right off.
Kolasinac defending himself and his friend against attackers doesn’t make him a nice guy/character. Loyal friend? Sure. Crazy/brave Mofo? Sure.
Schalke was in a mess and by some accounts those players made it worse.
And there’s a bunch of evidence about Ozil being problematic since Wenger was still around.
Call me a cynic. Meh
BTW I lazily just Googled and shared the top search hits on the topic but…
Here’s an interview with the sacked coach in German where he suggests that if he’d had the season over he’d never have signed a trio of players (Kolasinac and Mustafi inclusive).
https://www.blick.ch/sport/fussball/international/bundesliga/gross-nach-schalke-aus-die-groesste-enttaeuschung-meiner-karriere-id16373751.html
With the benefit of Google Translate:
What would you do differently in retrospect?
I wouldn’t get the same players again in winter. I would try to have a happier hand with the transfers.
I agree with Greg’s idea in his comment at 4:33am. I like Saka and this year he has certainly been a better overall player then Pepe. However, if Saka had started this last game in place of Pepe we probably would not have scored either of those goals. It points out again that every team needs players who have the specific skill of being good at scoring goals. Not everyone can score because finishing is a skill that not many players ever become good at. There is a good reason why goal scorers are always the most expensive players to buy. We are not going to challenge for the top 4 with a whole starting 11 filled with technically skilled good overall players like Saka, Smith-Rowe and Odegaard because none are very good at finishing.
City scored by far the most goals in the PL this season, and yet only had 2 players in double digits (Gundogan and Mahrez – at 13 and 10, hardly setting the PL alight). Spuds by contrast had two players in the top 5.
Yes, good marksmen most certainly help. But the evidence shows you clearly that how you play as a team is more important to scoring goals overall
GD is an illustrative stat, as much as and arguably more than goals themselves. It shows the balance. Check this: Goals For—Against—GD—Table Finish
(Arteta 20/21) 55—39—16—8th
(Em/Art 19/20) 56—48—8—8th (plus FA Cup)
(Emery 18/19) 73—51—22—5th
It’s hard to fairly assess the middle year because it was roughly half and half, and cleanup manager had the harder task.
But what this shows me is if you assess the one full season that each has had, Emery got a a significantly better balance between defence and attack. Arteta managed a much tighter defence, but was way off the pace in goals. I dont have time to look at chances created stats, but I’ll bet that they are as illustrative.
Auba had problems (mom’s health, malaria and a dry spell in front of goal), but Arteta is 18 goals worse off. That can’t be attributed solely to Auba’s productivity. How many games can you remember season just ended in which he had no service? It shows that while Emery had problems at the back, he struck a better overall balance. Also he was coming cold into the job. MIkel had had a 9 month run in by the time the just ended season started in August.
This isnt me pining for Emery, btw. Just taking a shallow dive into the numbers.
The fact that we were 17th in percentage of our shots that were on target suggests the biggest need is players who are better finishers who can hit their shots on target more often.
David.
You can’t compare Man City to us. City started from a position of strength because they had averaged 105 goals/season the prior 2 years and they have $50-75 million dollar players at every position and most of them can proven they can score. Additionally This season City’s goal totals are down about 22% compared with the last 2 seasons. I can’t imagine that was part of Pep’s plan going into the season, but he lost he lost Aguero and Sterling had a bad season. Even Pep can’t find a way to compensate for the loss of his top scorers.
Claude.
Emery had the Golden boot version of Auba compared to this years version who scored 10. It’s not like Auba had great service during the Emery era but that didn’t stop from scoring. Just Auba’s drop off cost Arteta 13 league goals compared to Emery.
Emery also had players like Ozil Ramsey and mkhitaryan who between the 3 of them would give you around 15 -18 league goals. That is about 30 that Arteta doesn’t have. In the first leg against Villarreal Arteta was forced to start a line up that at the time had scored <15 total goals for the entire league season
Please don’t mention Villareal in mitigation 🙂
He was most certainly not “forced” to field a starting lineup with Smith-Rowe leading the line.
Claude
With Laca out and Auba not able to play 90 minutes. We had zero good options against Villareal. Would you really have started Nketiah or Martinelli? Hoping that somehow one of them would score or give us a more effective line up is a huge stretch at best. Starting one of them would also have meant we had to drop either Smith-Rowe or Odegaard who had been 2 of our most effective players at the time.
I just checked. Ozil, Ramsey and Mkhitaryan scored 18 league goals for Emery’s first team.
Great. I presume that was before Mesut “fell off a cliff?” 🙂
Nketiah and Martinelli have “striker” in their JD. If theyre not good enouggh to be third string, what’s the point of even having them? That’s what a coach gets picked to do, make good calls. I dont know anyone — except you — who thinks that ESR at F9 was a tactically sound choice. MA has picked many a starting XI with BOTH Odegaard and ESR — and a conventional striker.
You can disagree with it, but playing ESR as a false 9 in order to try and get Auba, Saka and Pepe running at a slow backline is not necessarily a crazy or stupid idea.
Arteta gets more right than he gets wrong on the level of individual tactical decisions, and I don’t take much issue with the ones he got wrong like Villarreal. Everything’s pretty much made sense to me so far, even when it hasn’t worked. He’ll also get better at that stuff with more experience.
I am more concerned with overall approach and philosophy, the style of play.