Good morning. I watched the Man City-Borussia Dortmund match yesterday and it was a bit closer than I thought it would be. City looked shaky and while Dortmund could be left fuming about a referee call that was very poor I think overall they will be happy to go back to Germany with an away goal. Guardiola’s Champions League teams often implode and despite having the most expensively assembled teams in world history he hasn’t won a Champions League trophy since 2011. If I was a betting man, I’d put money on them going out to Dortmund.
Another thing I noticed in that game was how well Dortmund broke the City press. City pressed high, and won the ball back plenty of times, but Dortmund also managed to get out of the City press and get the ball forward to great effect a number of times. In the end the xG was pretty much tied for both teams, which shows you that despite the well-oiled City defense and attack, Dortmund were more than equals.
There are a few more matches today but I’m not going to get to watch them because of work.
Looking ahead to the Europa League, Arsenal play the Racists of Prague and LG Ambrose has done us a kindness and broke down their tactical style.
One thing that concerns me is that Prague play a sort of “smash mouth” style. Ambrose puts it nicer, saying that they man-mark, which is true. This makes them a lot like Leeds United which means that they look to make and win a lot of individual duels. In their 0-0 draw with Leicester they won 18/27 non-dribble tackles, 12/21 dribble tackles, and 37% of their pressures. That went along with their 20 pass-blocks plus interceptions.
They can also play a pressure game, which they did against Nice and won both legs 6-3 on aggregate.
Unlike Leeds, however, they don’t just fly into duels constantly and have the ability to sit on a lead and just control the opposition. In their decisive win over Leicester they held the Foxes to 0.5 xG on 40% possession. In fact, their xG against – apart from one blow-out to Leverkusen – in this competition is roughly the same as Arsenal’s.
Arsenal fans might be tempted to think that Arsenal will just play Prague the way that we played Leeds when we won 4-2, not the other time when Pepe was sent off for a being a butthead. And perhaps we will.
But the lineup in that 4-2 win might not be available. The day that Arsenal passed Leeds off the pitch we played:
GK – Leno; LB – Soares; LCB – Gabriel; RCB – David Luiz; RB – Bellerin; LCM – Xhaka; RCM – Ceballos; AM – Ødegaard; LW – Smith Rowe; RW – Saka; CF – Aubameyang
Injuries are going to mean that David Luiz won’t be available and let’s not underestimate the pivotal role he plays in bringing passing quality to Arsenal. Arteta will have to pick either Holding or I suppose Chambers there which isn’t quite the same. Tierney is another player who is fully out. And , in addition, Ødegaard is doubtful for this match.
Recent form might be another factor in the boss’ decision-making: Bellerin seems to have been dropped, Soares at left back worked on that day against Leeds but is really bad most other days, and Ceballos has had a shocking few weeks. Arteta also doesn’t seem to like playing Auba in the middle.
So, what lineup will he use? Who knows (one of my biggest frustrations of the season). Partey is available, Xhaka is available, and Smith Rowe and Saka should be fully rested after a few games off. I’d venture a guess that Arteta will play Smith Rowe in the 10, the double-pivot of Partey and Xhaka and probably Auba left and Lacazette in the middle. If he wants more ball-control he might even opt for Willian on the right which will have the knock-on effect of causing a twitter melt-down! We may see Saka reprise his role as LB or he may play Soares there, in which case then I suppose Saka will start on the right. I personally would go Saka LB and then Soares RB but then that means Pepe or Willian on the right!
It’s a mess though. And I am worried about the Prague press, especially pressing Arsenal high. If they have watched recent tapes (and why wouldn’t they??) they will know that Arsenal are vulnerable to pressure and without an outlet to long pass to from the keeper, we are very likely in for a rough night. Especially if they also mix it up and get stuck in to a lot of tackles.
This competition is all that Arsenal realistically have left this season. Arteta has to get this right or it will increase the volume of the already dinning voices of displeasure.
Yeah, it’s about to get real, as the saying goes.
We managed to avoid Man Utd and Ajax to get here and Praha beat Leicester, among other solid sides to make it to the quarters. To add to our woes, we will be without Tierney and Odegaard, which will make it very difficult to keep them from scoring at least one away goal.
There will be a lot of pressure the youngsters, Saka and Smith-Rowe. It’s your time, lads. Be superstars tomorrow.
Yeah, tomorrow is going to be a big test (though objectively it shouldn’t be, with us being Arsenal and them missing first string defenders). Hopefully we can get an early goal to settle nerves.
Saka as left FB makes sense to me, with Soares and Pepe on the right. No Odegaard is a bummer. Tierney out is a bummer too, but at least it’s not a torn ACL or something lie that. Let’s make the final so that he can come back in time to assist on the winner against Utd!
Staggering what Tuchel has achieved so far. Sure there’s a lot of talent in that squad but the change in their organisation, confidence and results is phenomenal. Fvckers could be in a CL semi final and Top 4 this season.
I had Chelsea finishing 2nd this season back in September – that was based off their summer purchases.
Watched some of Leicester 0 vs 2 Praha. Following a 0-0 away? Am convinced by Rodgers’ team selection (five regulars) that he’d be just fine to be out of the EL– to focus on the PL top-4 places. Arsenal then played perhaps their best match of the season against Leicester three days later.
Praha are some bastids. These guys run hard for 90. Very physical match vs Rangers on both sides. Won’t be surprised to see them try to play us similarly. In a match critical to Arsenal’s chances to climb into the CL? Need to keep the blinders on and show our talent.
Baked my first Ciabatta today. Was easier than I thought and real nice. Tim, I think you might have some competition on the baking front. Who knows I might be a natural Huh?
On Slavia, like Real against Liverpool, they may have a better structure, system and more energy, but our squad has enough quality (I know, I know) and “should” be good enough to topple them over two legs.
I might not believe in the success or competitiveness of this current side over the long term (which is what I think we would all like), but we have enough quality to get a result against anyone. Against Slavia? I think we will be fine. At least I hope so.
Now let me go make use of my new superpower of bread making.
Good job!
tierney never has small injuries.
He’s in the physio’s office right now screaming, “FREEDOM!”
Wow. That lineup today is not at all what I was expecting.
uhhh, arsenal tripped up.
lol, we really did.