Arsenal lost to Olympiakos 1-0 yesterday and yet, as always the scoreline stats don’t tell the whole story.
Arteta rested Martin Ødegaard and started Ceballos in the number 10 spot. It’s an experiment that I’ve wanted to see at Arsenal since we signed Ceballos: his play for the Spanish national team often saw him getting aggressively forward and into the same spaces that a 10 would occupy to great effect and I wondered if he could do the role full time. Plus, if you remember, Arsenal weren’t playing with a playmaker and everyone knew that we needed one because the attack was suffering. So, it stood to reason that Ceballos might make the jump.
It is just one match but on the night against Olympiakos you could see both why I felt he could make the jump and why Arteta/Unai/Freddie didn’t play him there. On the balance, Ceballos did enough in his 56 minutes to win Arsenal the game. His combinations with Aubameyang up front, Smith Rowe on the left, and Pepe on the right created more than enough chances for Arsenal to, ordinarily, win the game outright. Ceballos generated 4 key passes and 0.5 expected assists (according to FBref) with Opta suggesting he also created three Big Chances, leading all players in those creative categories. But the eye test suggests that he often slowed play down, made passes to the wrong attacker on counters or dribbled into culs-de-sac for a turnover.
It was his untimely turnover during a counter which led to the Olympiakos goal. Though, that’s not meant as a criticism of him since he was the one who won the ball back to start the counter and turned the ball over well up field. It’s also not like he hucked the ball into the net or quit on the play; he just lost an honest duel and the opposition scored off a deflected shot. That’s football, literally, shit happens. If he had a poor outing (he didn’t) Ceballos, of course, can be forgiven: this was effectively his first appearance as a number 10.
I suspect that the reason why he attracts so much derision is both his suspect decision making and also (let’s face it) that he often looks ungainly, like a flamingo with one broken foot, on ice. When he’s not jangling around the pitch he’s also uncomfortably inconsistent: his slide-rule (ask your grandpa) pass for Pepe’s giant chance was delicioso, but that followed up a segment of play where he’d effectively turned the ball over under very little pressure, leading to a great shot (saved by Leno).
Which leads me to the real problem. Arteta subbed on Martin Ødegaard in the 56th minute and Ødegarrd did everything that Ceballos did in 56 minutes in just 34 minutes. It wasn’t a stat for stat performance but it was remarkably close: expected assists, forward carries, key passes, etc. But where Ceballos stalls, Ødegaard flies. He completed 2/3 dribbles (and he’s not known as a dribbler), had a shot with an xG of 0.2, and more importantly, the entire Arsenal offense jumped to life when the big Ø came on the pitch.
Dani Ceballos isn’t a bad player. I like that he’s got some piss and vinegar in him as well. He’s been on the pointy end of a few reported altercations both in practice and in games, so he’s not afraid to tell his teammates when he thinks they are wrong. He’s also one of the top 2% footballers in the world. So, why the hesitation? It’s got to be a question of his price tag and whether at the rumored prices he’s at the level required to be a regular starter for Arsenal? It’s telling that he’s been at the club for two years and not answered that question. For me, his versatility and talent comfortably put him in the “valuable squad player” category. He can rotate in at Arsenal in a number of positions. But that said, it’s far more critical that Arsenal secure a player like Martin Ødegaard. After that, then we can talk about Ceballos.
Nice job filling in on the stats stuff over at Arseblog.
As far as Ceballos goes, can’t see where it makes sense. He’s not terrible, but I don’t think he’s quite good enough to push for a permanent position. He’s not good enough on defense to displace what Xhaka or Partey can do there(thought we still may need more help there). And from an attacking standpoint, we have ESR, Azeez, maybe Willock.
I’d rather go all in on Odegaard, though that seems a longer shot.
I think Arsenal did the right thing by not buying Cebellos. It would be a mistake to buy him because there are better options available for Arsenal at the same price and they addresses some of our weaknesses as well. Cebellos is not going to make us better and some of his flaws have really come to the fore this season. He isn’t a natural no.10, it would be a mistake to play him there. The only reason he alright yesterday is because Olympiakos were all over the place defensively as they were going for broke. If this was a EPL team with a low block defense, he would have looked toothless. Just like Xhaka his weakness is that he is not effective with Take-ons. To add to that he can easily get outmuscled in MF. This is a dangerous combination, you can’t wriggle your way out and you could get outmuscled. This deprives us of the control we need in MF and we’ve seen his inclination to be error prone.This is why he is not turning out to be effective even in his preferred deep lying MF position. Right now the best combination we have is Xhaka and Partey. Partey’s ability to carry the ball forward and beat players is something we need in MF along with his physical prowess, considering even Xhaka lacks in that department(i.e take ons ). We certainly can’t have Cebellos and Xhaka playing together because our progressive play/control in MF goes down the drain. In no 10 I’d rather see Odegaard or ESR. It’s time to upgrade our MF for sure..
you’ve heard a price for ceballos? what price have you heard and what player is better than he is for the price you’ve heard?
Good article. I like Dani Onions, and I think we need quality squad players. However, the primary focus HAS to be signing Ødegaard…without acting like we want to sign Ødegaard.
You know, like how Han Solo told Chewie to pilot the stolen shuttle past the Star Destroyers, “keep your distance…but don’t look like you’re keeping your distance” 🙂
The answer to such questions (should we buy player X) is always another series of questions. How much is the asking price? How much value does the player provide? And, very importantly, what are the alternatives?
For Dani, I’d say the asking price would be moderately high. Given that he’s a RM player we are unlikely to get below market value, not to mention salary and agent fees. This is not an obscure player.
The performance value he provides is inconsistent. I’d agree with Tim that he’s a good squad player who can fill certain roles, but oscillates between liability and match winner, usually averaging out as a solid but unspectacular contributor. There is value in that the variance in performances and his inability to lock down a place in the squad are red flags for a long term investment.
Thirdly, the alternatives can be split into internal and external. The internal alternatives, broadly speaking, are not really like for like so there is no ready made replacement. This is in his favor. The external alternatives, players with a similar age and profile, are out there and are probably more affordable.
So I wouldn’t be upset if we signed Dani on a reasonable contract but I also feel there should be no firm commitment and a thorough vetting of alternatives.
No. Arsenal should not buy Ceballos. The mistake he made against Olympiacos was when he tried to nutmeg one of their players in midfield in the midst of a break and ended up losing the possession and from which Olympiacos scored. Dumb decision to try a nutmeg during a break. Away to Olympiacos, he received a pass from Leno in a tight area and lost the ball while trying to dribble away from the opponent. They scored from that mistake. Against Benfica, he made 2 mistakes from which Benfica scored. Both mistakes could be avoided if he exercised some more caution. Ceballos likes to turn with the ball when he receives a pass instead of quickly releasing it. A recipe for losing the ball. From what I read, he likes to boss the younger players in the team – who does this loanee think he is to tell others off. For sure he is cocky. Very unlike Odegaard who is humble. Let him go back to Real Madrid when his loan is over.
The challenge to be a good #10 or #8 is not to be necessarily the fastest or strongest but certainly to be the smartest player on the pitch. You summed it up perfectly how Dani either makes the wrong decisions or thinks for too long. These are skills which can be improved upon but at elite level you really need to be showing your ‘smarts’ in your late teen years. So that’s a no thank you from me.
I’ll be surprised if MO is available next season. Whereas Dani is on the outside looking in at RM, MO is pretty much certain to make it there. He’s a real class act. Which leaves us with a Summer dilemma that we may need two midfielders in addition to Partey and Xhaka. Norwich look nailed on for promotion so unlikely Buendia moves. Bissouma is still attracting a lot of interest with Liverpool reportedly suitors. Europa League qualification will determine how deep our squad needs to be. If we fail to qualify for next season’s competition the infamous ‘internal solutions’ are most likely.
There was a simple pass on to Neney who galloped ahead to maintain the attack. He never does the sensible thing, gave it away instead. He’s a bottom half midfielder at best. Never going to be a hot at arsenal and the last thing we need is another loose cannon to make us bottle big games.
The inconsistency is the issue. For what we would pay, I don’t think he offers good value. There is one scenario that intrigues me, though. We agree to take Dani as part of a make weight for Real selling us Odegaard. That kind of deal I could get with.
BTW – I’vre really enjoyed your pods with Scott. You guys seem to genuinely enjoy the conversations and that comes out in the episodes I’ve listened to.
Should Arsenal buy Ceballos?
Short Answer: No
Long Answer: Hell No
Lightweight, inconsistent, terrible defensively, does not offer much offensively either, likely expensive, not a true #10, not a true #8 either… I can go on and on. He might look okay for a game or two against bottom dwellers but then disappears, especially against more or less decent teams. Personally, I have been largely unimpressed with his performances in Arsenal colors. Does Santi Cazorla have a younger brother who’s also a professional footballer? That’s the type of player I’d be looking for to buy. Miss the little guy.
I think the answer on whether or not to buy Dani pretty much depends on what structure we are going to play and his role.
Like you said Tim, he is a good player, and very much a great player for what he is, which is a player that plays on one side in the half space, preferably the left side of a double barrel midfield three. And that is where he thrives for Spain and where he came up starring for the junior sides and Betis.
if Arteta is going to play the 4231 or the 343, then Dani has no position that he thrives in or is better than everyone in. It would be very nonsensical to purchase a player of that quality, for a high fee and use him in positions that he does not thrive in. he is currently trying to be productive in roles that do not really utilize his strengths, but they are still clear for us to see. The problem for him is that he is being judged on performances in positions that are not his. An example of these roles not suiting him is how often he has puts his team in trouble when he collects the ball in deep areas. In a midfield two he collects more centrally as he is the only other option o collect, and his dribbling kicks in in perfect positions for opposition teams to press us. In higher areas, to show that he isn’t suited to the roles available there, his numbers and how slow he is, he struggles to provide output.
If Arteta is going to move to a 433 like City’s formation, then signing him up is a no brainer. in those box-to-box roles, it is tough to find a better two-way player than Dani Ceballos, not just in the team, but in world football. He also does not have to put up as much output and gets to pick the ball up in wide areas, away from the press. I like ilkay gundogan and Dani is very similar. Such players are not looked at as the primary source of goals, assists, key passes and other stats. They are also not known for their defensive prowess, but they help control their team’s possession and connect the midfield to the attack. They also direct the team’s attack and work to find our most dangerous players in areas that they can do the most damage. Dani also provides dribbling in dangerous areas, which destabilizes opposition defenses and pulls defenders towards him in the half spaces.
I love the player, as many might know. I have a bit of a fixation with his talents because I followed him for many years and have watched him regularly in person.
So If we are moving to a 433, sign him. If we are still interested in Houssem Aouar, then Dani is a necessity for the other box-to-box position.
If Mikel is going to remain a 4231 Manager, then Martin should be our number one target.
excellent points, well reasoned. I feel like I don’t know enough about the nuances of these formations to comment here but appreciate the insight.
Thanks for the insight on this! Great perspective, as usual, Devlin.
Interesting analysis
Much of what you describe I have seen written by MU fans about Pogba. Often referred to as a ‘Goldilocks’ player where everything has to be optimal in order for him to operate effectively.
I’m not sure it’s “goldilocks” but players do tend to work better in certain systems and with certain pairings.
I have always had a bit of a problem with the term “Goldilocks player”.
It only sounds like an insult, but for some reason, it seems way off the mark to label any player as such.
Just like Paul Pogba, I have seen him thrive in teams with certain minor specifics (where he isn’t the player that is being relied upon to carry the team), but overall players can only do what they can do.
My view of players and how they relate to their manager is:
” I will give you all my skills and work as hard as possible within the structure and to the instructions you give me as a coach, and its your job to create a structure and tactics that utilizes those skills and the hard work to make both of us successes.”
In that case for me, its either you maximize the talents of your players to succeed. If you do not have the instructions to do so, its also not wrong, its probably just a bad appointment or purchase.
Pogba himself is a World cup winner, Europa League winner and multiple Serie A winner, with three different sides, playing three different positions, with three different managers.
Far from a player that needs things just right to achieve.
As others have said, great analysis Devlin – on top of yours, Tim.
A question for you both – do you think we will move to a 433? I had always assumed that was Arteta’s aim – and actually thought that was what the set up would be when I first saw the team sheet for Oly game. But now I’m now starting to question.
Well when it comes to what Arteta wants to do, I am very confused and uncertain. At the start, he came in and played with a 4231, where he looked to press and play high tempo football. But we would then tire when the second half came, so he switched to a passive style with a 343. I trusted in him just as much as everyone else who heard him speak, so I thought he was making do with what he had at the time. Jump to this season and he continued with what he did the previous season, with the 343, even with new signings, so that confused me more. Midway through December and Smith Rowe starts playing in the attacking midfield role in Arteta’s 4231, and then the 4231 is suddenly back in vouge.
Now, formations for me have always been the structures within which tactics take place, so I don’t mind changes in formations, as long as the tactics can be consistent and combinations are not too tampered with. Right now, we seem to be set on playing front footed football and dominating sides. If that is the route to take, then we might continue with the 4231, but If he was to go back to being passive, then the 343 seems like his go to structure instead of the 433.
In fact, the whole 433 thing has always amazed me because Arteta has not alluded to it, or did I miss something somewhere sometime?
A lot of times in coaching, like with Klopp and Pep, you could initially succeed or be part of success with a particular style and structure. For Klopp this was gegenpressing and transition football in a 4231 at Dortmund, where his wide players where more natural creators and a dedicated #10. But when moving somewhere else, you find that the players you have there are only able to apply your style in this different league, within a different structure. For Klopp this is his 433, hard running, gegenpressing Liverpool side, with the center forward as the dedicated playmaker, the direct box-attacking wingers and a midfield that couldn’t create to save their lives, but work very hard to turn the ball over. Even more unique is how his side’s largest creative output is from the fullbacks.
I think Arteta will put forward what gets his football into the game best, and right now, its looking like the 4231, which unfortunately Dani will not be a crucial part of.
Thanks Devlin. I pray to god we don’t revert to passive 343 – I don’t think my enthusiasm for the game would survive that a second time.
My original assumption was based off his Pep learnings, but a google search suggests that he did actually specify that a 433 was his preference towards the end of last year.
After so many years of Wengerball, the 4231 feels like a comfort blanket but the 433 is a novel curiosity to me for Arsenal. However in the hypothetical scenario that one means MO and the other Ceballos, I’m with the 99.9% of other posters here as to which one I’m choosing!
Really depends on who he has available. I can’t see a 433 with Xhaka and Partey and… Odegaard?
Odegaard’s vision and sense of where every other player is, and will be– separates him from Ceballos. By some margin too. Odegaard is a contemporary version of Ozil– with a dash of trickery– and better, aggression. The PL game when the first MO11 arrived in 2012? Was slightly slower paced, often with time on the ball to choose a pass.
Not yet Gretsky-esque, Odegaard possesses a sixth sense; the game moves slower for him. Ceballos guesses. Just different levels. Not one to which Ceballos is likely to ascend.
Sign Dani Onions? Nope. Not in a million years! Like Xhaka, he wants too much time on the ball, gives away far too many fouls when he tackles, isn’t athletic enough, can’t head the ball and doesn’t score goals. If he was put on the market tomorrow, can you imagine many Premier sides queueing up to buy him? Nope.
As far as I can make out, whichever line up the manger plumps for, he doesn’t fit the bill. Arteta wants players who are sharp in their movement and passing. Give the ball and go. Work like dogs, when we lose possession. That isn’t Ceballos at all. There are loads more midfielders about who can do that and more.
Will Madrid be in a rush to take him back? I very much doubt if they’re bothered one way or the other.
The simple fact remains, that Arteta could have played him on a regular basis, had he wanted to. With everybody fit, he doesn’t.
Speaks volumes, doesn’t it?
So there you have it.
Save the money and increase the bid for MO.
A no brain decision.
I think Metalhead nailed it, I vote hell no also.
Should Arsenal buy cebollas ?
Definitely, once the pandemic is over, and preferably in bulk to save money.
The pan-fried guinea fowl, corn-fed pressed leg terrine, smoked croquette, burnt onion purée
served at the club level Highbury restaurant wouldn’t taste the same without them.
wow! the attitude is so dismissive of ceballos. what makes anyone think real madrid want to sell him? many mention the price he might cost. i haven’t heard a price quoted so what makes anyone think if real madrid wanted to sell, that they would ask big money for him? while i didn’t see the game on thursday, it was his first game playing in the 10-spot for arsenal. by virtue of that fact, perhaps he should be given the benefit of the doubt. apparently, he laid off a few nice balls for the arsenal goal scorers to screw up. maybe if pepe and auba are more clinical, folks are singing ceballos’ praises.
what’s also strange is so many who didn’t want to see smith rowe’s “development halted” by the arrival of some real madrid loanee are suddenly wanting mo11 on a permanent basis. do we not care about smith rowe’s development anymore?
Josh, I’m not sure you’re comparing apples with apples here – or onions with onions.
Ceballos has been at Arsenal for 1.5 seasons now, whereas MO has been here for 2 months. Especially after we bought Partey, Ceballos is not making the best first 11 roster. My ideal would be to sign a midfielder who takes Xhaka’s spot. Not another squad player.
MO is still in relative honeymoon period, it’s true, but as it stands he is making the first 11 choice and with fan endorsement of that (ie not like a Willian situation earlier in the season).
Concerns about ESR’s development were and are valid. But a) that was in relation to an MO loan whereas we are talking here about would we make him permanent; and b) it turns out that ESR and MO can play together anyway. Ergo, first I don’t think a permanent signing materially halts ESR’s development; and second even if it does marginally, if it adds a better player* to Arsenal then in the cold light of day (and much as I personally like ESR) I’m an Arsenal fan, not ESR’s mum.
* I don’t know whether he’s better than ESR, or their respective ceilings. But I do know that if both MO and Ceballos return to Madrid tomorrow, that I will feel we have properly kicked the tyres with Ceballos but ultimately his porridge wasn’t for us, whereas I will rue MO’s departure and wonder ‘what if’. Especially if he goes on to do well at RM or elsewhere.
i’m not comparing those two players. ceballos and odegaard are two separate points i brought up but their situations are completely different. the only similarity is that they’re both real madrid players on loan at arsenal.
for the record, i don’t think real madrid are interested in selling odegaard. they’ve systematically progressed the level of the teams he’s been loaned to in an endeavor to facilitate his development…all without him having to split time with one of their superstars. i mentioned last week that the only chance arsenal has to sign him is if he believes arteta can make him a better player than zidane can and he requests, not to leave real madrid, but to go to arsenal. i believe he wants to be a real madrid player. we’ll see.
Don’t you think that MO and Smith Rowe play well together? I do and that has helped me get over that particular fear.
sure, they play well together. the problem is they play the same position. likewise, i don’t think smith rowe is a better striker than pepe or aubameyang. it’s arteta’s choice; his circus and his monkeys.
Good overview Tim.
If he wasn’t on loan, he’d be one that we’d be looking for offers for in the next transfer window.
And that’s basically it.
Superb post again Tim.
Sorry I have been missing for the last week. Its been a down year in terms of snow here in Colorado but the last week has been much better. Its snowing again today. A couple of really good powder days which have been almost nonexistent this year and we have had some friends in town so I have not really had much time to blog. Great to win over Spurs and advance in the Europa league. The last 9 games of the league schedule include mostly all bottom half or relegation level teams except for Liverpool and Chelsea so we should finish the season on a relative high note. I think we will end up around 7th place which is exactly were I thought we would end up and I think that is exactly where we belong in terns of our squads talent.The key to the season has always been the Europa league and I think we have been fortunate in our draws so far and look like we should end up in the semifinals Winning the Europa league is still a pipe dream but ending up in the CL next year because we won the Europa league would certainly salvage this season.
As far as Ceballos. We have had him for 2 years and his ceiling seems to be a squad player who is a bit of an upgrade over Elneny for that squad player role. We need to upgrade a lot of positions with players who are top 4 level first 11 players and we desperately need to buy a couple players who are good at scoring goals on a semi consistent basis and those always cost a lot of money so spending money on a squad player is probably not the best use of our resources. On the other hand every team needs squad players which is why Arteta decided to bring him back for a second season on loan and I don’t mind keeping him if the price is bargain basement low.
Hi Bill! I was wondering what happened to you. Thanks for the update.
I understand the idea that buying an experienced player can somehow block the path for a talented young player but I think that idea is mostly a myth which does not really stand up to close scrutiny. Starting around 2005 Arsene made a big deal about not wanting to buy experienced players because it would block the path for his talented academy players but in reality how many of those literally hundreds of talented youth who came thru the clubs academy ever left the club and became really good players? In the 15 years since 2005 Gnabry may be the only academy player who didn’t get much chance and then moved on and became the sort of player the club wishes it had back. The player who really “blocked” Gnabry from getting more enough minutes to show what he could do was Iwobe. In this last decade how many young players have left Real Madrid, Barca, Man City, ManU, PSG, Bayern Arsenal because their path was blocked and then became really top players their club wishes they had back? I can think of Pogba and I am sure there are a couple other exceptions but its very uncommon. As a general rule no team should avoid bringing in a player you think can help your team because of the concern that he might block the development of a young player. The career path of young players has proven to be highly predictable in terms what their true ceiling is and how many years it takes to reach that ceiling. Attempting to build a consistent top 4 team around the potential of developing youth players is at best a very low percentage gamble. Again there will be occasional exceptions to any generalization but in the vast majority of cases if an individual player is really that good he will not be blocked.
that’s wrong, bill. serge’s progression was blocked by many, primarily by walcott; wenger believed more in theo than he did gnabry.
the trajectory of a young player is very unpredictable. they’re typically all very special in their own way but the drive and discipline to become a great player is difficult to predict. it’s not about their talent but their intelligence as well.
…and gnabry had crazy injuries, which wenger was notoriously poor at managing.
Josh @ 3:22AM.
There are probably exceptions to every generalization but I also think the idea that a manager can somehow improve a player is almost always more myth then reality. Most players like Odegaard have been doing almost nothing but football since before they were teenagers and they have had dozens and dozens of coaches. Many have come thru top level academies with theoretically world class coaches. The idea that a manager like Arteta or Zidane can somehow find a way to improve an individual player that none of those other coaches and managers could figure out seems really hard for me to accept. A manager can put together a team that plays well together and a rising tide can raise all ships. or there Arsene and David Dein around the turn of this century who had a knack for recognizing players who were on the verge of a breakout and who would fit the his system and he was able to build a great team. However I would argue that was a unique situation the true test is whether someone can repeat what they did. Once the rest of the world caught up with our scouting advantage Arsene’s ability to “improve” players seemed to fade. How many of the talented players that came thru our academy or he bought as youth players did Arsene develop into superstars? I would argue in most of the last decade of Arsene’s tenure there were more players that regressed rather then improved after they came to Arsenal
there are levels to managing. a good manager with adequate skill and experience can almost always improve a player. understand, i don’t mean give them gifts that they weren’t born with. i mean by enhancing the gifts they were born with by conducting certain training activities. likewise, by helping the player with their decision-making process. those are two qualities off the top of my head that are the most effective. sometimes, it’s as simple as new ideas a player’s never been exposed to. sometimes, it’s chemistry between player and coach.
last year, i confessed to a player that i can’t make him any better; his abilities as a goalkeeper had exceeded mine as a goalkeeper coach. i worked with him for two years and he sucked my brain for everything i know about training goalkeepers. after nearly 20 years of coaching, it was the first time i’d ever said that to a player. i wasn’t ashamed to confess that to him. he’s a very special player. when it was time for him to pick colleges to go to, i told him to go where a coaching staff could facilitate his continued growth. this included eliminating a dear friend of mine who desperately wanted to sign him but i was sure couldn’t improve him as a player. that’s right, i did say “dear friend of mine”.
it’s on the tactical level where coaches improve players. sure, a coach’s experience could slightly enhance their technique and improve their fitness. however, it’s the decision making and judgement that determines how good a player is. this is where coaches make players better. it’s not just the player’s talent but how they use their talents to effect the game in the system they play.
lastly, i don’t recall anyone ever saying wenger made anyone better, ever!