Cech’s road to 50 points is more difficult than you think

Petr Cech has handed his team a points target for an end of season run which would put Arsenal firmly in the title race, 50 points from 20 matches. Sitting on 37 after 18 games and with 20 games left to play Arsenal would need to jump from 2 points per game average to 2.5 points per game. Put another way, Arsenal would need to win at least 15 of their last 20 matches and pick up a further 5 points from the other five matches in order to reach such a lofty goal.

Arsenal’s schedule is complicated by the fact that the Gunners face Chelsea, Southampton, Liverpool, and Tottenham away between now and the end of the season. These are the games in which Arsenal average just a point a game. One win, one draw, and two losses from those four would meet Arsenal’s average.

The Southampton and Liverpool fixtures are especially problematic because they are surrounded by potentially tough matches for Arsenal. For example, Southampton comes just a week after Arsenal play Bayern and a possible FA Cup tie. That cup tie could potentially be a ball buster as well because if Arsenal get past the next two rounds of the FA Cup our chances increase that we will draw another top team.

After the Southampton match is an international break and then immediately Liverpool away and Bayern at home. Alexis Sanchez will be returning from international duty late and probably battered as Chile look to qualify for the World Cup. This, plus the fact that nearly every Arsenal player is an international, means that none of them will be getting rest ahead of the Liverpool tie.

Here are the fixtures list and points needed to get to 50:

Venue Opponent Points
Home Cry Pal 3
Away Bournemouth 3
Away FA Cup Preston
Away Swansea 3
Home Burnley 3
N FA Cup
Home Watford 3
Away Chelsea 0
Home Hull 3
Away Bayern
N FA Cup
Away Southampton 3
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Away Liverpool 1
Home Bayern
Home Leicester 3
Away West Brom 3
Home Man City 3
Home West Ham 3
Away Cry Pal 3
Away Middlesbrough 3
Home Sunderland 3
Away Tottenham 0
Home Man U 1
Away Stoke 3
Home Everton 3

When I looked at the fixtures list and did my “gut feeling estimation” I came away with Arsenal earning 43 points from the last 20 matches. That would mean Arsenal earned exactly 40 points from each half-season. I didn’t plan it out that way, that’s just how I “felt” that Arsenal would do. Here’s my gut feeling:

Venue Opponent Points
Home Cry Pal 3
Away Bournemouth 3
Away FA Cup Preston
Away Swansea 3
Home Burnley 3
N FA Cup
Home Watford 3
Away Chelsea 0
Home Hull 3
Away Bayern
N FA Cup
Away Southampton 0
INTERNATIONAL BREAK
Away Liverpool 0
Home Bayern
Home Leicester 3
Away West Brom 1
Home Man City 1
Home West Ham 3
Away Cry Pal 3
Away Middlesbrough 3
Home Sunderland 3
Away Tottenham 1
Home Man U 1
Away Stoke 3
Home Everton 3

You can accuse me of being negative because I don’t have us earning any wins against the top six teams but if Arsenal if Arsenal take 43 points that would mean that they averaged 2.15 points per game over the last 20 matches. That would be one of Arsenal’s best finishes of the last seven years! The best they have done in the last seven seasons is 2.21 points per game. That was from January 2015 to May 2015 when Arsenal were the best team in the League.

But Arsenal’s final 19 game finishes have been anything but consistent. After one of their best finishes to a season plus a strong start to the next, last season Arsenal averaged 1.68 points per game in the second half of the season.

As a point of data here are the charts for each season since 2010. What you see here is that between 2010 and 2012, Arsenal were a poor second half of the season team. Then between 2013-2015 a strong finishing team. And last season, Arsenal fell back down to being a poor finishing team. Here are the actual charts (via statto.com):

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Historically, the top teams in the second half of the season have averaged 2.27 points per game. If Arsenal managed that over the final 20 matches of this season, they would get 45 points. Still shy of the 50 called for by Cech but only 2 points more than my gut feeling. That’s just two draws more than I predict. Maybe, say, one over Chelsea and one over Southampton. Or even just change my draw away to West Brom into a win.

Fifty points would be a historic end of season run and almost certainly put Arsenal in title contention. 43 points is more realistic and yet would still be one of Arsenal’s best ever end of season runs. But this season is so incredibly close and competition for top spots so tight, 43 points might not even be enough to finish top four! If Arsenal put in a repeat performance of last season and finish on an average of 1.7 points per game, it would mean just 34 points and possibly a 7th place finish.

Qq

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