You’ve got to admit it’s getting better

Arsenal dropped three points yesterday, why?

The referee?

Poor finishing?

Poor play?

Bad luck?

Why did we drop the points? It’s just football isn’t it? Maybe.. just maybe, both teams had a game plan, both team executed that game plan, and maybe, Arsenal were just a bit unlucky?

I’m not doing a match recap (they are boring) so I’m going to assume you have watched the match. If you haven’t seen it, go watch, it was pretty funny.

Burnley did what I told you they would do: they pressed Arsenal high, in fact they had 81 high pressures, the most of any of their matches this season. It was also the most high pressures Arsenal have faced this season from any opponent (actually, the most since Chelsea in Feb. 2019). And Burnley won 57 pressures (total) which was also the most pressures won by them this season and the most number of times Arsenal have conceded the ball to pressure this season. AND.. Their 27 blocks were the most blocks Arsenal have had against them this season and the 2nd most that Burnley have pulled off.

Burnley had a game plan, they executed that game plan, and they got a result. Their little box-four midfield with a high press when Arsenal tried to play out the back was impressive from my perspective. It was designed to force Arsenal wide and into low-percentage crosses rather than just let us play through the middle.

And their high pressures were targeted exactly where I would target them against that lineup: Xhaka and Chambers. If teams press Xhaka he will give the ball up. And he’s almost guaranteed to have at least one brain genius moment per game. Usually, it’s a pass to no one directly out of play, but once in a while it’s a pass off the opponent’s chest into goal.

If I was a fan of any team but Arsenal, I would intentionally tune in to watch Arsenal because you can be guaranteed that Xhaka’s going to play and almost always going to be guaranteed he’s going to do something knee-slapping hilarious. He’s the Premier League’s best slapstick comedian.

But as an Arsenal fan I kinda feel bad for him in this match. It was clear that he wanted to win the game, that he wanted to make up for the previous meeting between these two teams where he choked a man and got himself sent off (which was one of the best comedy moments of the season). He was active, he was moving well, and he was demanding the ball. He led Arsenal in progressive passing, progressive carries, tackles, and pressures (he won 63% of his 19 pressures, that’s astonishing). He wanted to be the hero, but all anyone is going to remember is that one bad pass.

And if you’re Bernd Leno, you have to know better than to give him the ball. Especially in the penalty box under pressure. That was the worst decision by Bernd. Well, ok, I guess it wasn’t the worst decision: he could have turned and just passed the ball into his own net! But it was close to the worst decision. Leno has to know that Xhaka’s got mediocre touch, that he takes two touches to settle the ball at the best of times, and that he makes brain genius decisions. So, I assign that comedy goal 75% to Xhaka and 25% to Leno. Next time? HOOF THE BALL YOU DING DONG.

And look here, I’m making light of this clearly terrible, very important moment in human history, but the reality is that error and the Burnley pressure doesn’t tell the story of the game. And neither does the referee.

I don’t think we can blame the referee (well you can do whatever you want, but I’m not blaming him). I know that Pieters’ arm was away from his body but Pepe’s self-pass was super close to the arm and I can see why the VAR decided it wasn’t a penalty. I probably would have given Arsenal a penalty there, but I’m an Arsenal fan. And if I’m honest, I would have given Burnley a penalty for Saka’s foul on Vydra in the first half.

I’m going to say this about the refs: I used to complain about the refs, I used to believe that there’s a bias against Arsenal, I still believe that Mike Dean had a bias against Wenger, but the more I watch football in other countries, the more I watch Arsenal from less of a fan’s perspective and more from a football perspective, the less I think refs are that bad. Fans like to complain about consistency and how their club never gets the calls but tell me truthfully if you even remember that Saka fouled Vydra much less thought we were lucky not to concede a penalty there? And don’t try to pretend it wasn’t a foul, he kicked a man, going for the ball, while he was in the act of shooting. I want that penalty every time, thanks. That’s the thing about being a fan: we remember the moments that we felt went “against” us and forget the moments that went “for” us. And here’s an even bigger bomb: referee decisions aren’t for or against a team.

I’m done complaining about the refs, the laws of the game, handball, VAR, offsides, etc etc. It’s become a terrible soap opera. The worst part of any football match is the coverage of the referee’s decisions and the worst comments in any forum are about the referee decisions.

The media companies LOVE this stuff, by the way. They are playing you folks. Every post-match interview includes a leading question about the referees. And every manager takes advantage of this and leans on the crutch of “bad refereeing”, “lack of consistency”, the laws of the game not being the way they used to be, and VAR. We should be asking coaches about their tactics: what they got wrong, what they got right. But instead we get these smutty and downright abusive questions about referee decisions. Referees are human beings, folks. They get things right and wrong. The quicker we learn to accept that the laws of the game have ambiguity and that referees need to make judgement calls on a ton of things – like handball and what’s a foul – the quicker we will get back to enjoying the football. Try it sometime. You might find you like it. I do.

Here’s what I think about instead of the refs: how did Arsenal play? Did they create a lot of good chances? Did they do something amazing, wonderful, or funny in this match? That’s what I want to watch. I don’t want to watch 50 year old men complaining about referees and I don’t want to read 50 year old men complaining about referees. I have about 15 years left in this life (if I’m lucky), I’m not spending any more of them on the referees.

The story of this game is that Arsenal did enough to win. Despite the Burnley pressure, Arsenal had 4 “big chances”. That’s huge, folks. That means Arteta knew what Burnley were going to do, that Burnley did what they wanted to do and did it at an unprecedented level, and Arsenal still managed to create enough chances to win this game three or four times over. That’s what we should be talking about.

I’m going to post a graphic here which I think shows us something we should be happy about:

This is the chart for non-penalty expected goal difference from 2017 to yesterday’s game. I’ve smoothed things by using a 10-match rolling average. Look at where this team were (was? Is team plural? I hate English sometimes) when Arteta took over, and look at where we are now. One could complain about how low we were (and pretty much that’s what I’ve been doing for a year) but I’m choosing to look at how high he’s getting us at this point. The results aren’t coming (quite yet) but the way we are playing football is pretty good. And it can get better. That for me is the story of yesterday’s match: we are getting so much better and growing in each game. It wasn’t 90 minutes of full bore football but it was good football. We didn’t get the result, but that happens sometimes.

Now, imagine if Arteta gets some more good players this summer!

Qq

51 comments

  1. A self grandiose article full of absolute piffle. The only evidence to support arteta is a graph, yup you yanks like your graphs, and its EXPECTED goals, the most worthless stat every created.
    Saka did not foul any more than Luiz did against Everton
    Pieters did commit handball, his arm was at 90deg to his body, thats ‘unnatural’ the reason for many a pen
    Arteta has brought in Willian Gabriel Mari Odegard Ceballos Partey and we are lower in the league, out of cups early. Nonprogress whatsoever

    1. DONT TELL ME ARTETA HAS IMPROVED ANYTHING I DON’T WANT TO HEAR IT ITS NONSENSE AAAHHHHHHHHHGGGGGGGGGG

      -Angriest Man on Twitter

  2. I do feel like we’re getting better. The defense is better, and most matches we’re creating more and better chances. If we can up the conversion rate, and get rid of 50% of the catastrophic errors, we’ll be right in the mix for top 4. I was somewhat encouraged that we played reasonably well yesterday, even with Partey not having a great match. And I’d rather have started Pepe, but Willian was pretty decent in the first half(finally).
    On the Xhaka front, it’s clear he has his limitations and he’s one of those guilty of the catastrophic errors. It’s less clear to me that we currently have any better options. Dani brings some additional positives, but less security, and he has had some pretty bad errors too. Elneny is definitely more limited.
    As far as far VAR goes, you saw the good and the bad yesterday. The use in the second one was exactly correct. From an Arsenal standpoint, I’d have loved a PK and red. But that was clearly an incorrect and major decision, and reversing it was absolutely correct and the sort of thing VAR was designed for.
    On the earlier one, the big frustration is that VAR was supposed to improve consistency. But those sort of calls, even much more marginal ones, have been consistently given as fouls and PKs this year. You could certainly argue they shouldn’t be, but they definitely have been. That was a soft chip by Pepe, not a blast. ESR was penalized for a ball smashed at him just a couple weeks ago.

    1. There will soon be a GPS chip within the ball and even more cameras covering the pitch from more angles and heights so that hand balls will be determined by accurate measurements of the speed and the distance of the ball to arm or hand. Then all we will debate is the reaction times of uber-athletes cloned from the genes of Ronaldo, Messi, and Mbappe, and the threshold ball speed and distance which constitute handball, which FIFA would slightly adjust from year to year, but the UK (assuming Scotland does not succede because of Brexit) would have a different standard because of the honest local lads (e.g., those unfortunate enough to be cloned from the genes of Shawcross) just like red cards for violent conduct.

      My sincere hope is that Tim makes it until then (given his pessimistic estimate of only 15 years left) and reneges on his above vow to not debate football rules.

  3. Good article. We’re getting better. Not getting the breaks at all, but over time this should translate into results, as your graph shows. Good idea to save yourself from losing time over refs! And all the other circus elements that accompany football these days. I’d recommend adding commenters who use caps, too.

  4. Off-topic, but Manchester United fans will be absolutely unbearable today.

    Any theories on where it’s all gone wrong for Klopp, anyone?

    Didnt see the game. Was sick as a dog Friday night, and needed a late sleep-in. All I saw were replays of the clip of Xhaka’s assist. But what you say resonates. He was probably trying hard to atone for causing us to lose the earlier game.

    I liked his mea culpa, which was well expressed and seemingly sincere. He’s not one for apologising.

    1. on Klopp: his style of play is exhausting and his players are three years into playing that way plus the pandemic schedule exacerbates the fatigue. I’m fairly certain that’s what’s happening.

      1. Yep. Plus significant injuries to basically all the 1st and 2nd string central defense, which disrupts both defense and buildup to attack.
        Plus no crowd at Anfield to cheer them on.

        Of course they are likely to re-discover their form right around the beginning of April.

      2. Either Klopp has no Plan B or he does not want to change his style. Without a good defense, playing a high line is like flirting with suicide. As to physical and mental exhaustion the same thing happened to Dortmund years ago. Liverpool has to either let Klopp rebuild the team next season or hire another coach…
        What do you think about Tuchel? Is he another Mourinho?

        1. Tuchel is so good. It’s actually unbelievable. I think the only problem with Tuchel is that the players might stop listening to him and he’s quite the dictator.

  5. Huzzah. This is a worthwhile perspective; as was your method of dealing with trolls. SERENITY NOW!!!

    We are improving, but I do believe someone needs have a word with Arteta regarding lineup and substitutions. Perhaps he should employ the Modified-Costanza method?

    1. So weird: I was telling Avie about “serenity now (insanity later)” just yesterday.

  6. 15 years? Tim, do you know something we don’t?

    On the game, I am glad that you enjoyed the game because I slept midway through the half. I get it that the stats are getting better, as Bill also pointed out in the previous post, but for me, its very important how those stats are being improved.

    I have held the belief that a top club has three ways that it can be and those are:
    1. Competing
    2. Developing to compete
    3. Surviving

    Teams that are competing might not be the outright favourites to win trophies, but they are part of the most likely candidates. (Man City right now)

    Teams that are developing to compete have a style or philosophy that they are trying to implement. This style or philosophy is usually such that it is capable of beating the majority of teams when it finally works and is also based on the team and not individuals. For examples of sides that developed to compete, look at Pep’s first season, Klopp’s first 2 seasons, Simeone’s first 2 seasons, Rangnick’s 15/16 season at RB and what Rodgers has been doing at Leicester. Tactically and recruitment wise, they worked on creating a foundation for sustainable future success.

    Teams that are surviving is usually teams that have either been competing or close to it which are falling off. These sides use money and results based tactics to keep themselves amongst the sides competing. It is a short approach which is based on individualism. its successes are not really signs of a rebirth, just spikes in performances based off of the players and pragmatic tactics. A big problem is also that the team’s approach and form becomes more based on individual players than the collective. (United and Arsenal)

    In the last few months and the “great” performances we have had, I have still not seen us as a side developing to compete or competing. We are still in survival mode, and the worst thing about surviving is that you keep postponing the development to compete.

    So yes Arteta would likely improve us (as he has shown in the past few months) with some more good players, but the ceiling of our current approach is unfortunately not close to being a competitive side. Just like under Arsene in the latter stages and his switch to a back three, this just seems like survival. The team plays differently with the removal of a single player in Arteta’s side, whilst Man City can lose Silva, drop Kevin, Sterling, Aguero, or anyone and still play their football.

    Buying more players for Arteta is just continuing on the survival route because we play different whenever we change players. We might improve for a while, I find it hard to believe that this style of play and recruitment is a sign of a team that will be competitive soon, if ever.

      1. Developing into what Tim?

        The stats are better, but what are we trying to become or develop into?

        1. well, for one, a possession based attacking team, one which controls space (rather than pressing the man or the ball) out of possession. But also I think Arteta wants to use the wide players and fullbacks in sort of unique ways. it’s hard to see for me because I’m not a great tactical coach or anything, but I recognize that he’s developing a style

  7. Almost forgot…

    my Achilles is healing well Tim, thanks for asking.

    I had actually decided on taking the non operative, but early weight bearing method. it has healed but It has also been tough and I found myself laughing the other day when I was frustrated at not being able to just wake up and jog like I used to. I remembered you saying that its going to be a long journey and you were right, long and hard.

    I actually got back into gym work after months of rehab. I am currently walking with no pain and have regained full range of motion. I just do not have any strength in my left foot as yet.

    I just have to contain my excitement so as not to re-rapture.

    1. Very glad to hear your on the mend Mr D. You are a quality geeza as we say in good old London and your right re point to Tim. What are we trying to establish? 1 wk good, 1 wk crap. From min 21 to min 75 we did absolutely zilch. You’d think at ht MA would’ve put a rocket up the players ass but no. Stale, sterile, no DRIVE or ambition until pep can on..I’ve watched AFC since 1967 an this is utter dross right now

      1. Uhm, I have never been called a geeza before, but if I am a quality one then Huzzah Tony.

  8. Here’s my humble take. Man-for-man Burnley are a far inferior side to Arsenal. Burnley had played twice since our last game. It was clear as day in the first half that Burnley were way off the pace and gave us loads of room to play (if you don’t believe me just watch the first half again). Arsenal should have established a multi goal lead in the first half. After taking an early lead we eased of and played much of the game at pedestrian pace and didn’t put Burnley to the sword. Two recurring themes this season.

    As for the Xhaka goal I’m not going to platy the man or repeat what’s been said a million times. He’s Arteta’s man, playing Arteta’s football. I’ve no problems with playing out the back but when you’re 1-0 up a) do you need to draw the opposition out? And b) surely there’s some coaching basics which says don’t play the ball to the man under pressure who doesn’t realise just how under pressure he is. It was like the equivalent of turning your back in a boxing ring and telling the other fella to take a free hit.

    We’re all looking for positives and progress but I think what you propose as an indicator is a tad optimistic. We’ve been loitering around 10th place for quite a while incapable of stringing a run together. In our last seven games in the league we’re W2D2L3 earning eight points at 1.14 PPG. That’s neither progress or improvement, in fact quite the opposite. If people want to convince themselves we’re progressing that’s cool but results ultimately define it; and our results and repeat problem solving suck.

    1. Well, the ultimate test will be what happens for the next 10 games. If we are truly getting better then it should show up in a variety of stats and on the scoresheet.

  9. Tim

    Superb post. I loved your take on the refs. I consider myself the biggest ref apologist on the blog not named Tim and even I did not think about the Saka play you described until you pointed it out and I went back an rewatched. I am an Arsenal fan and my focus is naturally on any play that might hurt us and I tend to ignore the ones that probably should gone against us. Focusing only on the ones that go against us is why conspiracy and anti Arsenal bias theories take hold. I also loved that you pointed out just how difficult it is for football refs. Almost every call is subjective which means that true consistency is an impossible pipe dream that will never happen no matter how good the refs are. Most fans are convinced that the majority of the close calls are going against them

    As far as the team getting better. I agree that we have looked better in the last few months. Unfortunately no matter how many big chances we create we are not going to get a lot better until we have a couple more players who are good at turning those chances into actual goals scored. IMO.

    1. I think we paid the price for the wrong line up. Ignoring Nketiah and Martinelli who can’t get a game, we have Auba, Laca and Pepe as our best finishers. I’d have played two of the three from the start against Burnley. Pepe was very effective when he came in but if you’ve watched Burnley before you’ll know that they may be poor at football generally but they are excellent at blocks and holding our for a draw. They always play to their strengths in the latter stages of the game.

  10. Tim

    If your take on why Liverpool is struggling is burnout from the hand work of the Klopp system is true then Klopp probably needs to rebuild his squad every couple of years. My own take is Liverpool has hit a really bad run of form and up and down runs of form are usually unexplainable. Looking back at the last decade of the Wenger era certainly demonstrates how much form can vary and when a team hits a bad run there is often not much a manager can do.

  11. Nice piece though buh it’s a stunty growth from my perspective. Experiments way too much for a lab technician.

  12. Spurs form seems to have picked up. I don’t think Mourinho has changed tactics or gotten smarter. Having another player who is a real threat to score like Bale has certainly helped them.

    The team which started the game yesterday only Willian, Luiz and Auba had ever scored more then 10 goals in their entire PL career. How many of us expected Willian or Luiz to score a goal? That leaves only Auba and he is at an age where the slow down may have already begun. I don’t think we are going to get a whole lot better without adding some firepower to the squad.

  13. XG don’t lie. And the eyeball test says we look better. Maybe Arteta is playing 4d chess and make us look really awful in the Fall so any marginal improvement would appear amazing by contrast. But please God, play Pepe instead of Willian!

  14. The Kids and Odegaard.
    Once Arsenal had a bit of creativity in the middle– with Saka on the right (and correct) side, more opportunities have opened up. The Kids weren’t ready early season- and the team’s three best attacking options were literally jammed into the same 30 square meters of the pitch.

    Fast forward to Arteta putting trust into ESR, moving Saka right, and acquiring a CAM with an eye for a pass? Attacking looks more fluid. The spaces appear that Auba requires. Saka starts shining like a veteran (even Pepe(!) is en morph).

    Arteta did what he had to do initially this season– defend first. Once accomplished, he (and Edu) went after Party and Aouar. Got Partey and a bumpy liftoff for 3 months. Began playing ESR. Odegaard.on loan in late-January.

    It was always going to be this point in the season– IF– it was going to start coming together for Arteta’s version of Arsenal. The rest of this season– is for educational purposes. It will take bringing in 2-4 staring XI types this Summer– to make the current starters into squad depth– for Arteta’s Arsenal to make strides NEXT season.

    Arteta’s Arsenal today– can be good. But they’re not good yet.

    Reckon I’ve got less time left than our host. Yet, I’ve given over to patience.
    Figure no one else, both available and wants the job– can untangle a trainwreck– followed by another trainwreck– in any less time.

  15. Interesting comments as always. My take?

    Whichever way you look at it, the handball was a stone cold penalty. No if, no buts. The vast majority of refs would have given it at whatever level of football you play. How Kevin Friend took one look at that in slo mo and decided it wasn’t, is completely mystifying. He’s no Friend of mine. That’s what happens when you start playing around with the laws of the game. The poor men in black get so confused, in the end they don’t know their ass from their elbow. The first law of football is “common sense”. When you take a ref’s badge, that is the first think they tell you.

    When teams are playing a high press, you don’t start playing cute little one twos in your own six yard box. Ever. Especially not with the Swiss Tractor. What was Bernd thinking? I can see how Xhaka has improved and has certain qualities that Arteta admires, but he is not the right man for left midfield. At the risk of repeating myself like a broken record, I would be interested to see Oodegaard given a run in that position. He is far more comfortable on the ball, has much better first touch and can play the ball forward accurately in tight spaces. Granit’s “Hollywood passes” are all very well and good when he’s got time, but all the opposition has to do is not give him that. Simple.

    We are less of a team when ESR doesn’t play and he should be in the centre of the pitch whenever possible. He has the knack and energy to continually find space, while others can’t. He’d be the perfect target for a player like MO, when we’re struggling to get the ball out of our own half. He really is quite crucial to how we want to play. Incredible when you think about it, but there you are. A bit like Robert Pires used to be. The oil that keeps the machine running.

    Arteta is doing a good job, in my opinion. The club was going nowhere fast. At least now I can see that there might be a way forward. We need to cut out the obvious errors, but we’re starting to look like a team. Most importantly, he’s completely hosed out the “German Clique”. You know the ones. Mustafi, Ozil, Kolasinac, Mhiktaryan etc. Massively overpaid, under motivated and bad for team morale. I don’t think we should underestimate how important that was.

  16. I thought Chambers did OK at right back. Far better than I thought he would. It would be interesting to see how he would have fared against someone like Sterling, however. I like the idea of having full backs who can head the ball. It comes in handy when opponents throw in crosses to the back post, which they do regularly against Arsenal. We are very poor at defending them.

  17. I don’t read Arseblog often but Andrew’s post today is very touching. Certainly worth five minutes of your time.

  18. Nice blog, Tim, I do love me a graph so thanks for the illustration. Is there an easy comparison available to do with other teams? I’d love to see how we compare on xGD against some of the teams ahead of us, like Liverpool, West Ham, Villa and Everton. I think on current form we are at least equal to them, and should be aiming to gain points on them in the last 10 matches.

    A rising trend in expected goal difference is great to see. Arteta’s task is to see that converted into points and places in the league table. Inconsistency has been a problem, we get up some momentum then Xhaka tries to chip a Burnley player with his chocolate leg and doesn’t get it over waist height, and we have to start again.

    I agree a lot with JW1’s retrospective on what this season has been about. Transition. The kids, then Partey and a “bumpy liftoff” (great description), now Odegaard. We can start to see where this is going, touch wood. It’s reassuring to hear Arteta in his press conferences talk about how much more there is to improve before he’s going to be satisfied. Let’s hope he knows how to get there, he could still very easily stall this, but my trust in him is starting to develop.

  19. Re lfc simple.. caffine diet. Will give teams 2 to 3 yr life expendency. Check it out.

    1. Tim posted a piece of gonzo journalism about this last summer, wish I could find it now, but the author totally called liverpool’s crash and burn this season. At the time it seemed like conspiracy theory ramblings even if there was clearly some substance to it. Now it seems totally clairvoyant.

      On another note, according to some people who may or may not (probably not) ITK, Madrid have set a price of GBP 22m for Ceballos this summer. If Edu et al can get it under 20, seems like it would be good business, assuming we could move on Xhaka and get Partey a solid first choice partner. I imagine an Odegaard purchase will be in the mix as well — seems like he will have had to literally set the prem on fire for Zidane to trust him in Real’s midfield.

      1. I’d be happy to get Odegaard, but that seems like a bit of a longshot. Less sure about Dani. He’s somewhat like the attacking version of Xhaka. Not terrible, but not great either. Unless he was a huge bargain, I’m not sure he’s good enough to justify using up one of the non-homegrown slots.

  20. Mark my words

    We moved the ball very well and created plenty of chances without ESR on Saturday. The problem was we did not have anyone who could turn the chances into actual goals scored and ESR is not going to help with that. ESR has exceeded expectations this season but the idea he is so good that he has become the key to what we want to do seems like a quite a stretch.

    1. I agree that finishing let us down, but it is my contention that the team play visibly better when ESR is in the side, than when he is not. I’m not into statistics in any shape or form, but would be interested to know whether the numbers bear this out. Is it not the case that our results were better?

      Odergaard may develop into a great acquisition. It’s early days and the jury is still out. At the moment he looks very functional without doing anything particularly outstanding. Hardly surprising, given the number of games he has played. You would have to say, based purely on current form, that Smith Rowe should get the nod over him, for the simple reason that MO doesn’t currently give the same thing to the team. The movement in and around the box and chance creation.

      If he does develop into something approaching world class, then Real Madrid will almost certainly want him back. Where does that then leave us? Let’s suppose for the sake of argument, that he does join us on a permanent contract. How do you then manage the situation of having two outstanding players vying for exactly the same position? As we have seen with Martinez, it normally means one player has to leave to further their career.

      1. I totally agree with you that the careers of young players coming through the youth system is highly unpredictable and involves a lot of ups and downs.

        For a good many years, my Saturday morning routine was to drive round the M25 and watch the youth teams in action. I remember distinctly watching a curly headed 15 year old kid from Romford in Essex making his debut as a second half sub. Ray Parlour. If you’d have said he would have a long career at Arsenal, I’d have laughed. By a similar token, there were two other kids around that time, Stewart Robson and Stephen Hughes who were so outstanding, you’d have put your mortgage on them becoming great footballers. Neither of them did.

        The point is, for two young players like Saka and ESR to come into a side full of international footballers, which is basically underachieving, and somehow manage to turn things round for the team is very, very unusual indeed. I can’t think of many similar examples. Liam Brady? David Rocastle? They don’t grow on trees.

        Players like that are gold dust. Treasure them while you can.

  21. I felt that by playing Willian, he was being too conservative with his attacking options. I would have preferred Pepe, to add that bit of width and pace. It only felt like he was paying too much respect to Burnley.
    ESR feels like the player that greases the wheels, for everything else to function smoothly. And him being moved out wide might take that away from what was working.
    I think we are improving, feels like there is more of a “personality” on the pitch. But it seems to wax and wane over matches, hence, possibly the inconsistency. At least I am looking forward to matches these days, to see how much the team improves unlike the last 6-7 years.

  22. I thought I was living in a twilight zone, but at least some of you remember that Tim wrote about Liverpool’s “legal” doping a while back.

    I remember learning a lot about health and medication from the comments section.

    For the past 2 months I have been trying to find the post.

    I knew Tim was right about Liverpool at the time because it also happened at Dortmund where they were even fighting relegation, but I never knew what went into getting players to play at that pace and intensity.

    I learned a lot from that post, can you repost it, or give us the title again Tim? Or did you delete it?

  23. Mark my words.

    It was my impression that ESR’s influence had started to fade before his injury which is why I think Arteta wanted to get Odergaard. We have seen it with a majority of youth players who make an initial splash over the years. They start out really well for a few game and everyone gets excited and then as their initial adrenaline surge wears off and the league gets some game film and learns their tendencies that initial surge fades and they hit a plateau which is not as high as we had hoped. May ESR will be different but 15 years of history would suggest that planning our long strategy around him and expecting him to be a key cog in a team that eventually is good enough to compete for the top 4 may be hoping for a bit to much.

    On the other hand I think Saka has been good for long enough that we can reasonably expect that he will be a part of a long term plan potential top 4 competing squad. I think his ceiling will be determined whether or not he can develop into a consistent low to mid teens goal scorer

    1. Bill,
      You’ve referred to this before. This idea of young players starting off well and then “reaching a plateau”, “hitting a wall”, “adrenaline surge wears off”. Who are you specifically referring to? Name names. You make it sound like a fairly common phenomenon, which is something I don’t particularly recognise as such. I’m trying to think of who you might have in mind. You really need to follow up your comments with some concrete examples.

  24. Starting with the project youth era in 2005 Arsene tried to build a top level PL team based on young players hoping they will develop together but it didn’t really work for him and in the last 15 years very few on our younger have moved up to become regular difference making players for Arsenal. I can’t think of any PL team in this century which has been successful with that squad building method. May be this will be this group will be different but it’s a low percentage strategy

    1. Depends on how you define success. Only one team can win the League and yes, that honor usually goes to the most expensively assembled team. Even during Wenger’s title eras, we were shrewd but also broke lots of records for transfers and salary.

      Success for Fulham is staying in the Prem. Success for Arsenal from 2005-2015 was staying in the top four. Maybe that doesn’t suit your definition and that’s fair but that was what Wenger was tasked with. It’s also a bit of a misnomer to call that “project youth” because almost none of the players on that team were academy players. They were young players scouted and purchased at a great discount. Jack Wilshere was the only academy player who made it.

      But you are correct that academy players are difficult to win the title with, I think only Man U have been able to do that and that was on the back of an incredible generation of talent. A huge part of the problem is that in the UK the academies are limited in their recruitment to a catchment area right around the stadium. In every other country they basically just go to South America/Africa and steal children.

    2. No that strategy didn’t work for the simple reason that the players weren’t really good enough in the first place. That was quite obvious from the beginning. I don’t remember them excelling and then fading badly. You could argue Wilshere and maybe Ramsay, but that was down mainly to injury. Wenger got his results primarily by bringing in young players from outside rather than developing them through the youth set up, which he didn’t really believe in. I’ve been watching Arsenal since 1960. The periods when we have been at our best have usually been when we have had home grown players coming through into the first team. I can give you historical evidence.
      The thing you also have to keep in mind is that we are in 2021 and not 2005. Have you seen the latest financial figures? Most of our income comes from matchday takings. All those people in Club Level paying through the nose to be wined and dined. Obviously, that has disappeared for the last year. We are losing money and don’t have an owner who seems keen to pump money in. We’ve lost money on transfers badly due to rank bad management. We are going to need to look internally for solutions rather than splash the cash, as there is very little cash to splash.
      Players like ESR and Saka have the added value of being able to inspire and motivate the rest of the junior players. it is vital for the club that they can see a way into the senior set up if they work hard at their game. A win win situation.

      1. In the first instance, Arsene Wenger didn’t feel the need to develop the youth set up as he had the distinct advantage over other managers, in as much that he knew the foreign market, primarily France and Africa. He was in a position to “cherry pick” anyway he liked. Why bother with local kids? Eventually, the rest of the Premier league cottoned on to this however, so that “edge” was lost. French unknowns like Kante were just as likely to end up at Leicester.

  25. There’s no such thing as “project youth”. Arsenal’s spending was constrained by having to finance a much bigger and more modern new stadium, the Emirates.

    So we had to be inventive about squad building, and that meant relying on more on young players and less on transfers.

    The suggestion that we had a strategy of trying to win a title with youth is, at best, debatable. Of course, Arsene held back on spending when he DID have money, as in 2015 summer when he brought in only Cech.

    But looking back, what he managed with the resources at his disposal in the financially lean years was remarkable.

Comments are closed.

Related articles