Arsenal get a result against United

54 comments

1. Who thinks willian had a good game? He made a couple of forward runs and that was about it. Pathetic

   1. Agreed. There is a lack of conviction and ambition about him.

   2. I’d say that Willian vs United was an improvement over the usual. Then again, that’s not necessarily saying a lot since he went from a 2/10 to maybe a 3/10. So, taking away his first game vs Fulham, I’d say that’s probably his best display for us that I can remember.

   3. I think he had a good game. He was tidy in possession, had a cross and a shot, linked up well with Soares and ESR on the right to release them in behind, defended well and pressed hard, tracked back to put in a tackle and stop a cross coming in in the 82nd minute.

      Was he a game changer? No. But it was a big improvement.

      1. I was probably watching a different game from those who felt Willian had a good game.

         For the shot, he was completely short of confidence, took his time and the defender was able to cover and block. Also, I thought a number of times, the team choose not to pass to him.

         It was rather harsh on Martinelli to be replaced by Willian, despite Arteta saying it was tactical. As summarised by Tim, Martinelli saved a goal. Despite Arteta’s praise for Martinelli, he still seems to prefer experience over Martinelli’s youthful exuberance.

   4. Williams performance rating was a graphic based on Relative Coordinates. On the basis of his past performances as the base, there was a big improvement, almost as good as his first outing for Arsenal. With Global Coordinates there he was showing perceptible improvement over his standard shit show.
      A lot of euphoria was perhaps auto -suggestion after Arteta spoke highly about Williams. The sheep follow the master. Thank the Lord for Tim and his math

   5. Yup. If you see the first few minutes, he seemed panicked that he had an attacking opportunity.
      On defense, I saw both Willian and Bellerin giving up chances to close down the wing, Willian almost instantly putting hands on sides as he approached, inviting the cross. “I’m going to let someone in the box deal with this.”

2. Couldn’t agree more on Pepe.

   Seen across sites fans believe xhaka and laca upturn in form is related to playing for a new contract. Don’t know what to make of it but auba can’t do what laca does. Bolagun seems to have the potential to do what laca does offensively.

   Let’s see what Arteta does in the summer but of course money and good negotiators will affect success in that department.

   1. i don’t think lacazette and xhaka are playing for contracts. they’re simply being good professionals.

      i agree with you that auba can’t do what laca can…and neither can eddie. however, i believe balogun can and i believe arsenal should have allowed eddie to go to west ham. we’ll see what happens today.

   2. Regarding Balogun, good intentions would play a bigger part. Might be wrong, but the boy has a good ceiling. His cockiness is actually an asset forward, but it appears Arteta takes offence.

      1. Some of those Invincibles were as cocky as they came, especially a certain striker. I’m sure Arteta wouldn’t mind Henry’s cockiness in his pomp. Let’s see if this kid can be even half as good!

      2. I think sharing an agent with another arsenal player on the fringes also complicates negotiations with him.

3. Would go higher on xG for AFC with Willian’s pass to Pepe and the blocked shot by “jughead” as that shot was going in, and I do not believe De Gea would have got to it.

4. I saw only the last 30 minutes, and, bearing in mind that was supposed to be the better part of our game, I agree with you entirely.

   The wishful thinkers are out in force, seeing, not what is there, but they want to see.

   Just like our win over Manure a few months ago, this was a contest between 2 pretty mediocre teams.

   For my part, 3 shots on target, especially at home is just not good enough.

5. I thought Willian justified replacing Martinelli who had looked a bit all over the place in the first half. No he didn’t beat players and create chances but I think Arteta brought him on more for ball retention.

   Pepe was good, he worked hard, hustled and tracked back, all that had been missing before, he’s just missing the cutting edge and finishing.

   I thought a draw was fair even though I knew the stats would show it slanted the Manc’s way.

   In fact, I think both teams were lucky to get clean sheets, we carved them open a few times and vice versa.

   I think the feel good factor among fans comes from the fact that our two players of the season and our captain were absent yet we didn’t look inferior to a so-called title chaser.

   1. Agree with all of this

6. Pepe was definitely better than he has been for much of the season. You can see a decent player in there.
   Willian was better, but that’s off a very low threshold. I wouldn’t have said he was “good”. Martinelli wasn’t great. That’s a role where Odegaard might be able to help us out once he’s fit and integrated.

   Hopefully at least Saka and Tierney will be back for Wolves. The next few matches are crucial. After today’s result, we’re only 4 points off 5th. If we can win the run of matches before City, we’ll be right in the mix.

7. Tim

   Another great post. I think a draw against ManU and another clean sheet is a good result. We have been talking for much of this year and about the defensive stats and xG both suggesting that our defense has not been playing all that well and yet Arteta has been with the team for over a year which is a reasonable sample size and we continue to do quite well preventing the other team from scoring.

8. “Pity poor Jose who the foul fiend hath damaged the ankles of his talisman”

9. Penny for your thought on the martinelly sub. Admittedly (to me) we were better in the second half and especially at the beginning. I agree that Willian is currently unwatchable, but it looks like he offered something to us to enable control in the second half. Maybe the ‘trademark’ stop and recycle tactic he brings enabled us to increase possession and avoided us falling back to the low block defensive position..

10. yours is the voice of reason, as much as I agree with your view on the match, you didn’t take into consideration that we are missing three regular players

11. Spurs losing and Mourinho miserable? The perfect combination.

12. I would like to give a huge credit to Leno for his immense save off Fred. There are game highlights on official Facebook with the action shown from a few angles. What a save that was. He looked 5-10 centimetres short to reach the ball but somehow flying he managed to stretch his hand further. Mind-blowing and only happened in a moment. A fantastic skill.

    On top of that I want to say I liked again how well Holding defended. He does basic stuff very well and he is very determined, he improved his passing skills as well.

    1. Leno has been fantastic for us.

       1. he’s been good

    2. I wanted to praise Holding but he was at fault for almost all of the times that Cavani got in front of him.

13. How does XG deal with dodgy reffing? Fernandes should have seen red for the rake down Xhakas hamstring. Either for a second yellow after a yellow for retaliating against Cedrics high arm, or to be honest a straight red for violent conduct.

14. cavani should have scored on the cross that came from the left. that xG should be a .9. if rashford had taken that shot when it seems like he should have, cedric would have blocked it…probably about a .1 xG, in my opinion. what was more impressive was how quickly leno recognized the situation and closed down rashford after the pullback, forcing him to turn his back on the goal. that was world class goalkeeping…and there’s not stat for that.

    i love the fact that arsenal are doing so well defensively. i believe it comes down to attack being the best form of defense. with unai, arsenal were super-defensive structurally, meaning they packed the box and looked to hit teams on the break. the problem with that strategy is two-fold. first, arsenal don’t have the players to defend that way, particularly attacking players who defend the way unai wanted. second, arsenal gave up a boat load of chances with emery’s wimpy approach. arteta has the team attacking more which means opponents have to defend more. it’s not about form, it’s about strategy. emery’s strategy was cowardly. arteta plays more balanced. this is what management is; being efficient with the talent you have, not trying to turn lead into gold.

    btw, like tim hates the term pace, i hate the term form. it’s an excuse for bad play. if you don’t play well, it’s probably because you’re not training well. likewise, i would say mentality is an issue before form. my take is simple. you do what you need to in order to be at your best on game day…then be at your best on game day. cristiano ronaldo said “i work to hard on my game for my form to ever be bad”.

    since the red card, xhaka has been excellent.

    the biggest difference with pepe is that he’s playing soccer without the ball where before he only played when he had the ball. likewise, it’s about 18 months in, which is what i give all players adapting to the premier league. hopefully, he’ll continue to progress, making it super-competitive to get into the arsenal attack.

15. The difference between Martinelli and Willian should demonstrate what it is that is valued about Willian when he plays well.

    We looked more secure down that left flank after he came on, he released Soares and ESR a couple of times with patience and short passes in tight spaces and had a good chance to score himself. Martinelli is great, much more eye-catching and more of a direct threat but that match, cagey and awkward as it was, needed Willian’s technical security.

    Agree with Tim that in contrast we looked way too open on the right flank, Shaw had the run of the pitch at times. Pepe tried but Saka is more of a Willian type of player who affords more protection for Bellerin.

    It looked to me like our priority was to stifle Fernandes, which we did with relative ease, both by cutting off service to him with the press and by shadowing him closely in midfield, and that successfully killed off most of United’s attacking threat. Pogba couldn’t really compensate, neither could Martial or Rashford, and the point of their attack eventually moved all the way back to Shaw. Agree that Cavani’s chances were much harder than they looked.

    Then, going forwards, we had some nice link-up and intelligent passages of play – we look much happier on the ball than we did a couple of months ago – but while we worked hard to negate their threat, we just didn’t have enough going forwards ourselves. No criticism of ESR or Laca who gave everything but we were just a bit too blunt. Odegaard looks very interesting and is the kind of player who could make a difference in matches like that, with Pepe playing more advanced.

    It wasn’t a great game or a great performance, there were lots of issues, but I’m weirdly encouraged by it; I think you can see things continue to develop, and our self-belief was really positive.

    1. very nice comment, Greg! I agree with all of this. I’d much rather funnel the attack to Shaw if it means squeezing Fernandes out of the game. When he clicks, they click. It’s as simple as that. You can’t totally shut everything down for 90 minutes, even if you’re out for joyless, soul sucking negative football, which we are not. Arteta could’ve gone hyper defensive and played Maitland Niles at RW to shut down the LB, but nobody wants to see us go that conservative. On the flip side, Pepe produced most of our best attacking moments. You let Shaw have a little joy if it means a higher chance of scoring at the other end. I don’t think he’s so good that you have to set your stall out to shut him down.

16. look at the wolves freefall after since losing jimenez to that skull fracture. the value of a good center forward can’t be overstated (big up to lacazette…hope he’s good to go for tomorrow after coming off injured). wolves have struggled to create good chances or score goals since jimenez’ injury. that’s not a coincidence. you can’t just cut and paste good center forward play.

    1. Jimenez is a big loss but also so was Jota.
       No club can overcome losing two top scorers let alone a club like wolves.

       1. agreed. however, wolves seem to have coped better with the loss of jota than jimenez.

17. You are right. Willian is very bad: passes backward, unable to take defenders on, technique on shots has disintegrated. Pepe is a very bad player, lacking the basic technical skills needed to play as a winger. Shame how low our standards have fallen.

18. So on this season’s overall form we’re on track for 57 points (1.47 pts per game), basically the same as last season (8th).

    But on the form we’ve shown since Christmas we’re on track for 72 points (2.42 pts per game for the next 17 games), which would have seen us finish 3rd last season.

    In fact I very much doubt we will make top 4 but it’s all about sustaining this development now, taking points off those around and in front of us, and not losing if we can’t win.

    1. i think the goal has got to be top 4. in fact, i think that’s the reason arteta threw the fa cup. can arsenal make up the 8 points they’re back? maybe. they have to try.

       1. I don’t think Arteta “threw” the FA cup. He didn’t risk key players with iffy fitness profiles, nor should he. This was not a cup final, nor was the opponent Manchester City.

19. “All of Willian’s output in this match happened between the 49th and 51st minute.” If I could get my most productive stuff done in 3 minutes of each day and then sit back and collect a paycheck, I’d have so much more time on my hands to think that Willian is maybe the s$^ttiest Brazilan football at Arsenal since Santos.

20. Tim, in my opinion football is very emotional game and we respond to it emotionally first and foremost. I used to think I was objective. Now I laugh at that thought. I don’t think any human is capable of being truly objective about anything that he/she has feelings about. So we all view the matches through the lens of our emotions, and that’s how it should be. The figures and data that you and others present are an interesting look at the game from a sort of machine perspective. But the interpretation of the data is still by the same human beings, whether the authors of the data or the consumers of it.

    You know all this of course. I think what I’m trying to say is that we each experience these games in a unique way due to our emotional states and that numbers only go so far, if anywhere at all, to counteract that. For example, if I thought Willian had a decent game but you show me a stat that he gave the ball away, I’m much more likely to blame that on the way stats are counted. But if I believe he was profligate and you show me the same stat, I’d take that as instant proof that I was right. It’s because I formed a belief, grounded in my emotional reaction to seeing him play, and that is much more powerful than my thinking objective rational brain.

    It’s the same reason we are more afraid of shark attacks than drowning, or of Arab terrorists than fatal car accidents. Our brain is capable of rational thought but will always default to an emotional reaction first.

    1. For example, if I thought Willian had a decent game but you show me a stat that he gave the ball away, I’m much more likely to blame that on the way stats are counted. But if I believe he was profligate and you show me the same stat, I’d take that as instant proof that I was right. 

       Don’t do that, man. If in fact you do do that, try to stop yourself reacting too emotionally. You’ll find yourself coming to arguments lightly armed. Im not a fan of Ben Shapiro (whose schtick is to try to give MAGA spew a veneer of intellectual pretension), but the truest thing that he ever said was that “facts don’t care about your feelings.”

       I’ve never understood why anyone would question the methodology of something that interfered with their bias. The first thing you need to do is the eye test… judge for yourself, before the stats come in, whether Willian had a good game. If your judgement is good, you’ll be fine with the data. Mind you, they dont always come together, but more often than not, the instant takes by the regulars here chime with the data.

       Man, anyone who’s been a regular on Tim’s blog knows that I wrote off Xhaka long ago. Yet I can come here right after a game and assert that he was superb against, say, Palace.

       It’s why you have to be fair to Willian You may think he’s a bad investment, but if he played well, he played well.

       1. Claude, this is my entire point!

          There’s no need to come to such arguments lightly armed, well armed or otherwise. If we both have strong pre-conceptions, you’re not going to convince me and I’m not going to convince you, so all we will do is exchange barbs, look to score points and ultimately try to walk away with a moral victory. And we will have both wasted our time and made ourselves more bitter in the process.

          Acceptance of our inherently emotional selves is the only way to be at peace with such disagreements.

          1. I think it would be much more correct to say that your feelings don’t care about facts. It’s really true. Facts on the other hand are truly objective pieces of information and therefore truly without emotion. Of course they don’t care. Nor does it matter if they did. What matters is what humans do and what humans believe, and that is always guided by emotions first and foremost.

          2. Doc, Xhaka playing well against West Ham (and the data supporting that qualitative analysis) has nothing to do with how I feel about Xhaka.

             Our “strong pre-conceptions” should not matter in the face of the facts. I absolutely don’t see the need to convince someone who dislikes Xhaka (including myself) that he had a good game when he clearly did.

             I love Tierney, but if he has a bad game, I’ll say so. Data isn’t infallible, but I’ll maintain that if you understand the game and you apply your observations fairly (and dispassionately), it will generally support your-eye evaluation. Mind you, a player can have mixed game… play crap for 8 minutes, then have 2 sublimely taken goals, maybe on a tiring defence. Grey areas, which should also be taken into account.

             Of course football is visceral and emotional. I yell and cuss and Im 200% a tribalist in the moment. But when the final whistle is sounded, a rational being would call it as s/he see it. If you don’t or cant then, theyre not being a rational being, that is their problem, and I cant help them. I actually like it when players play above my expectations or views of them. Even in the moment, I see plenty of Arsenal fans (myself included) correctly calling red cards on our players before the ref has actually decided. In the stadium, without the benefit of TV, we might react differently. Otherwise, emotion should not be a let-off..

             We need to let go of the kind of bull-headed emotion that leads to the disputing of credible factual evidence. But hey, football conversation might be more boring for it.

             1. This is how we got into the “Wenger out” debate. Arsene, by any objective analysis, had clearly declined to the point where he needed to be removed. I felt that as someone who still has a strong emotional attachment to the guy. But the facts had become incontrovertible..

    2. Yes, we need to be aware of our biases.

       Also, Willian is fucking shit (both objectively and in my biased opinion) and we are haplessly stuck with him for another 800+ days because no one – and I mean no one- is dumb enough to take him off our hands.

       1. Well and also be aware that the data isn’t perfect, and that stats aren’t always a perfect explanation for the real world. In my world of health care models, we had a set of clinical folks that would do face validity testing after the models were built…basically do the results pass clinical muster. Usually they do, but not always. Many football stats are wayyy less solid in terms of ultimate reliability because of data issues, i.e. xG is somewhat of a judgment call.

          1. I feel like you’ve been reading my blog for a long time and that you would be well aware that I understand the limitations of the data and the models.

       2. Bias awareness is not really what I’m getting at. I’m more contemplating the value of data in general to an inherently emotional argument. This plays out on a national stage with pretty much every major issue that decides elections, but also here at 7Am and sports blogs around the world, at kitchen tables at your house and mine.

21. Well, that was a pretty active January window. MF and GK in. Ozil, Sokratis, Kolasinac, Mustafi all out permanently, Willock and AMN on loan.
    Think we were busier than any other PL club. And $$$$ off the books.

    1. kolasinac is only on loan.

22. Mikel and Edu have had a very productive transfer window, regarding players that are not in their plans, or struggle to get minutes.

    Ozil, Mustafi and Sokratis have changed clubs. Willock, Kola and AMN have been loaned out. Unless a player is very young, a loan is a soft exit.

    I liked what the club and Arteta had to say about Musti. He seemed a genuinely good bloke and club man. It is noticeable that both new coaches tried to integrate him and give him a clean sheet. The club paid respect to his work with the poor in Islington during the pandemic.

    It’s why I hate terms like “deadwood”, and the tendency in some quarters to see players as disposable pieces. I wish them all well.

    We’re taking financial hits on some, but squad trimming is a necessary evil.

    The incoming looks good. Fears over Odegaard taking Emile’s spot, which the young Englishman has earned, but I see them as complementary. YouTube edits aren’t definitive, but they can be illuminating. Odegaard brings trickery, line breaking ferrying and penetrative passing and assisting, but British commentators like to call “slide rule passes.” That last part is a small overlap with Emile, whose game is based on running and movement, rather than close quarters trickery. Odegaard’s game looks more like Wilshere’s.

    The thought of all of them pinging it around excites me. To me, Arteta has fewer excuses for underperformance. He has some really good technical players to work with. Pepe has always been one, and as Josh said he seems to be finally finding his feet in the EPL. Odegaard. ESR. Ceballos. Saka. Aubameyang. Partey. Hector. Tierney. This is where the much hyped coach earns his corn.

    1. I’m not sure I feel comfortable calling a player as one footed as Pepe a technically excellent player, but it’s true that his left foot can be a wand. Not van Persie levels though, not even that left foot (I’d take Podolski over him too on that account alone), not to mention the limitations in his passing, vision, and decision making in the final third. But that should be his goal. I think his combination of strength, speed and finishing ability would make him a fine central striker one day if he could develop his weak foot and see the pitch better.

       What Arteta still needs is to solidify is that midfield engine room and the LB position. Odegaard and Ceballos are rentals, Willock and AMN are not up to it at this level (yet), El-Neny is just about good enough to tread water, Torreira will be sold on, and we all know about Xhaka. So he has Partey-Xhaka but not much else behind them to build on. It’s better than we’ve had in years I’ll grant, but much work to be done in that area still.

23. Josh

    I agree to a point with your theory regarding the importance of good center forward player. However, I agree with Tom the real problem is they have lost 2 players who scored 50% of their goals last year and no team can compensate for that no matter how good their CF play is. It does not matter how many chances your CF can help create if the team does not have anyone who can turn the chances into actual goals scored.

24. Josh

    What other word would you use if you don’t like the term “form”. If you don’t accept the concept of good form and bad form then how else do you explain the roller coaster ride of runs of the good results followed by the runs of bad results followed again by runs of good results that we have seen from Arsenal squads every season over the last 13 years of the Wenger era.

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