The complete collapse of Willian Borges da Silva

When Arsenal signed Willian Borges da Silva this summer I wrote a piece about how even if I didn’t like the signing because of his age there was at least a sort of logic to it because he had been one of the League’s top chance creators (6th overall in SCA with 5.12 and 21st in SCA from open play) a very good dribbler (2.15/2.98), a progressive passer, with a decent progressive carries number, and a player who created a lot of chances for teammates (71 total, 7th in the League). If he could provide somewhere around 10 goals in his first season with Arsenal it would probably be worth it. But what’s happened to Willian this season has been nothing less than shocking.

He could still “hot up” and get those 10 goals. He has 3 assists and we have half a season of football left but there are structural problems with the way he’s playing which indicate that won’t happen.

The first and most obvious problem is that he can’t beat anyone off a dribble. In fact he doesn’t even try. In most matches, he collects the ball, starts to run at someone, then turns around and passes the ball backward. He does this so often that it’s annoying. And this shows up in his attempted and won dribbles numbers, his progressive carries numbers and so on. Just to underline this point: he attempted 2.98 dribbles per90 last season, this season he attempts 0.78. All of the Arsenal players’ dribble numbers are down this season – possibly due to instructions from Arteta – but this isn’t just down a few ticks, his dribbles have cratered and with them almost all of his attacking play.

If this is due to instructions from Arteta, it’s quite frustrating. That means that we bought a guy whose strength was beating a man and creating chances for his teammates and told him to stop doing that. If that’s actually what happened I would seriously question Mikel Arteta’s coaching. Because that means not only are Arsenal now not playing any active defense but we are avoiding all duels all together. I’m not sure how we are supposed to score goals if we don’t try to beat a man once in a while. Though it does explain why we are so terrible offensively: teams can just sit back a bit and let Arsenal play in long, dumb, crosses to forwards who can’t score in the air. Arteta is lauded as a genius level coach, so I’m going to defer to him on this one. There must be some sort of long-term brilliant plan, which is going to pay off in the end and shower us with League titles and European glory.

But back to Willian, if this is per Arteta’s instructions it’s not working because every one of his attacking stats have cratered.

Dribbles are down over 2 per90, Progressive carries are down from 12.1 to 7.35, carries into the penalty area per90 (CPA90) are down from 2.01 to an utterly useless 0.39 and of course that also means that his touches in the penalty area are down from 4.81 to 2.84 per90.

Not included in this chart are the total carries, which are down from 50.3 to 40.6, and progressive yds carried, which are down from 207.6 to 130.2 (all numbers are per90). I cannot believe that Mikel Arteta is telling his players not to carry the ball forward, and not to advance the ball into the penalty area. That would be criminal.

But perhaps the goal is to pass the ball more? Play less one-v-one duels and progress the ball with passing? That’s also not working (as we see week in and week out, he passes the ball backward).

Progressive passing is down, key passes down, expected assists per90 down, passes into the penalty area, down, overall yards pass per90 is down slightly from 777 last season to 716 this season, with all of the hit coming from his progressive pass yards which are down from 178.7 to 135.2.

And of course all of this poor attacking play shows up in his shot creating actions numbers:

Interesting that his goal creating actions per90 are relatively stable – so that’s good – but I’d guess that they will start to fall unless he’s able to create more for his teammates. His expected assists per90 are down from 0.24 last season to 0.15 and we need to remember that a player can have more than one GCA per goal (for example, a foul and a free kick). He’s had 6 GCA this season (total) and none since December.

It looks a lot like a combination of Arteta’s tactics and Willian’s age have caught up to him. We bought a player who could reliably beat a man off the dribble and create for teammates and he’s just not able to do that any more. It’s no wonder that Arsenal are signing Martin Odegaard: we desperately need a playmaker on the right.

Qq

70 comments

  1. The first and most obvious problem is that he can’t beat anyone off a dribble. In fact he doesn’t even try. In most matches, he collects the ball, starts to run at someone, then turns around and passes the ball backward

    Spot on. He consistently does that and it’s infuriating to see. I doubt that Mikel told him to play that way… our other players attack the space behind/outside the full-back.

    I could see the logic/expected gain from signing Willian, but I find staggering the decision to give to a guy who turned 32 on August 9th, a 3 year contract at a shade under 200k. If Willian’s slide isn’t reversible by this season’s end, we are stuck with the player for 2 more years.

    Watching 43 year old Tom Brady operate yesterday is to be reminded that athletes playing at above-average quit-age in their sport (yes, I know things are very different from sport to sport and Brady does not rely on explosive running) are rare specimens. To understand how dumb Arsenal executives were in this instance, they were essentially saying (in giving him a contract that expired on the cusp of his 35th birthday) that Willian was a special and above-average footballer. This is Mikel’s folly. Not even Bergkamp got multiple-year contracts out of Wenger at 31/32.

    btw Willian’s old boss was sacked today. All I’ll say about that is Arteta is lucky that he doesn’t work for Roman Abramovich. He’d have been gone in early December.

    1. Its interesting you said this because when I read the Chelsea line of “ without any clear path to sustained improvement” i thought of Mikel and us

  2. Yeah, it’s staggering how bad a decision this was. Particularly in light of the existing Ozil contract problem, and the underwhelming performance of Pepe last year with a big transfer fee. I can’t imagine how they thought a 3 year contract for a player of his age was a good idea.
    As far as Arteta’s tactics, not sure how much they are to blame. Saka, Tierney and ESR have all been more direct. Not sure why Areta would be instructing them to be that way and not Willian.
    And regarding the difficulty we’ve had offensively…it’s not just us. Look at recent Liverpool matches. Teams are sitting deep and central against them, and they are having to resort to the same hopeful crossing we had been doing. Same thing to a lesser extent with City. Part of the recent success for Utd is that with Fernandes and Pogba playing reasonably well, they have a central threat from outside the box, and aren’t as reliant on crossing.

  3. The moment you suggested Arteta must have told William not to dribble, it put me off your article. What a ridiculous statement. The beef i have with Arsenal fc is buying the dude in the first place.

    1. All the players are dribbling less. We are down from 18.7 dribbles per90 last season to 13.9 this season.

      Auba: 1.41 to 0.83
      Pepe: 5.92 to 3.52
      Laca: 2.21 to 1.39
      AMN : 2.86 to 2.41
      Bell: 2.71 to 1.78
      JoeW: 3.47 to 2.69
      Xhak: 1.11 to 0.69
      Reis: 4.14 to 2.50
      Mart: 3.92 to 2.78

      Saka is up slightly from 2.46 to 2.8

      It’s clear that we are dribbling less. We are dribbling at about the same rate as Wenger’s team when they lost Sanchez, Ox, and Walcott. Why? Because teams are playing deeper? That doesn’t seem right. Plus we know for sure that Arteta wants the players to play crosses, especially deep crosses.

    2. At first yes. But how many times have you seen a manager kill a player’s strengths or get them to do what they don’t flourish in. Remember how many positions Di Maria played at Man utd under van gaal?

      Eboue under Wenger.

      Emery playing auba on the right.

      Emery playing torreira as a 10.

      Managers make mistakes. Arteta has to find the balance between tactical masterclass and giving players certain freedoms.

  4. You don’t really think he’s playing negatively at Arteta’s behest, do you? You just have to look at the way Tierney and Saka play, for example, to see their positivity in terms of dribbling / taking on the opposition as a reason Arteta prefers (in this case) Saka over Willian on the right.

    It worries me slightly when Arteta says he’s going to keep “supporting” Willian, but I’ll put that down to the kind of thing a manager has to say publicly (more telling, of course, is the fact that Arteta no longer trusts him in Prem games). Right now, it’s damage control with an eye to shipping him in the summer. At least, I hope that’s the case, but it will be very hard to do with his wages and contract.

    Quite simply, I have no idea why Willian has tanked as bad as he has this season. I don’t think it’s the ‘system’ though.

    1. All the players are dribbling less. We are down from 18.7 dribbles per90 last season to 13.9 this season.

      Auba: 1.41 to 0.83
      Pepe: 5.92 to 3.52
      Laca: 2.21 to 1.39
      AMN : 2.86 to 2.41
      Bell: 2.71 to 1.78
      JoeW: 3.47 to 2.69
      Xhak: 1.11 to 0.69
      Reis: 4.14 to 2.50
      Mart: 3.92 to 2.78

      Saka is up slightly from 2.46 to 2.8

      It’s clear that we are dribbling less. We are dribbling at about the same rate as Wenger’s team when they lost Sanchez, Ox, and Walcott. Why? Because teams are playing deeper? That doesn’t seem right. Plus we know for sure that Arteta wants the players to play crosses, especially deep crosses.

      1. I think it’d be an interesting discussion on whether high dribbling stats correlate to offensive potency or maybe it’s just a stat that indicates the style of offense. I could make the argument that beating a man off the dribble produces less chances than one-touch passing, movement off the ball and overloads in areas.

        The West Brom game is a brilliant example – Tierney beat his man off the dribble and scored a solo goal. Was that better than the Saka-ESR-Lacazette one-touch combination play that produced the second goal? Nobody dribbled there.

        I’d suggest the latter goal is a more dynamic and potentially consistent vision for the offense than relying on players dribbling. To that point then, I absolutely believe that Arteta wants more passing of the ball (a la City – I bet you Mahrez dribbles less than he did at Leicester, Bernardo less than he did at Monaco, etc… does deBruyne actually beat players off the dribble?). The problem is for Arteta that Willian has no telepathy with other players and so he can’t participate in any interchanges. He’s asked not to dribble, but then pulls up and there’s no one coming short for the ball. (Don’t get me wrong – the onus then is on Willian to assume the initiative and pivot to taking defenders on).

        I can see we have great partnerships brewing – Martinelli/Tierney, ESR/Saka, at one time Laca/Auba, where the players feel more comfort exchanging positions and running for each other.

        Just my thoughts on the drop in dribbling and why maybe it’s not to worry about.

        1. It’s about a .37 correlation between attempted dribbles and GSA. It’s a 0.17 rsq for final third passes or passes into the penalty area.

          Stronger correlation to dribbling than passing.

          So, definitely not great to not dribble.

        2. Was wondering about this dribbling thing too. Very small sample size in terms of teams, but for this seaon in PL, FBREF has these stats:

          (Successful/Attempts)

          ManU 199/331
          City 232/413 BTW Mahrez is not the dribble leader at City – Sterling is top by a mile.(Mahrez 14/39, Sterling 34/65 KDB 26/46)
          Leicester 175/314
          Pool 210/335
          Arsenal 153/265

          As a team we dribble a lot less than top of the table teams.Probably a function of possession, tbf.

          Saka is tops in attempts (25/44). According to FBREF, Willian has only attempted 8 dribbles, with 6 successful. Pepe has attempted 19 but only 8 successful. On this tiny examination, i think Tim’s assertion makes sense. Arteta prefers a guy like Willian, who doesn’t lose possesion, even it’s that’s less progressive, than a guy like Pepe, who loses it a lot.

          Interesting that he’s selected Odegaard, who was Sociedad’s leader in dribbles last year 63/94. 67% success rate is better than any of our attacking players. Tierney is best at 57.7% I will wager there’s more dribbling in La Liga in general, but Arteta has identified a need to dribble. Wonder if he will try to emulate City in that respect.

      2. Willian has 3 assists? I’m assuming that was in his first game against Fulham? My memory of that game is a bit hazy, but as I recall.
        1) A goal mouth scramble, where he touches the ball it hits the keeper and Laca puts the ball in the net.
        2) A routine corner played into the 6 yard box. Gabriel climbs well and heads it home.
        3) A nice cross field ball to Auba who is in acres of space, whilst under no pressure at all.
        Do you mean to say that those actually classify as “3 assists”?
        As a meaningful stat, It doesn’t really tell me much at all.
        According to those criteria, I was once the assist king of SE London park football.

    2. I don’t think Arteta’s telling him to play negatively I just think the priority is to keep possession – because it helps the defense. I know that a lot of the players pass up chancey opportunities (like risky passes and dribbles) and I honestly think this is intentional on Arteta’s part to keep us from being exposed defensively.

      1. Sure, I see that, but Arteta’s preference for Saka over Willian tells you a lot about what he wants and how he wants his forwards to play. All Willian tries to do is retain possession, at all costs, but clearly Arteta finds this lack of positivity concerning.

        You can always look at the team and set-up as part of the reason why a player isn’t adapting, but Willian is just poor, full stop, and it’s frustrating and strange. It’s not just the way his inclination is to turn and pass backwards; it’s the misplaced passes, the lack of vision, the poor touches, everything. He’s well into the part of his Arsenal career where his bad form is no doubt dictating his caution and causing mistakes.

        1. Saka starting ahead of Willian is, I would say forced by the results, as well as the difference being too obvious.

          Arteta in my non statical eyes prefers experience (unless Arteta doesn’t like them). The change in the line-up was almost a last throw of the dice after persisting with a 3 at the back, starting Willian at all times he was available, etc.

        2. Arteta/Edu took a big bet that Willian would work as a 10. It has been a disastrous decision. No idea why they thought this. Now that he’s too slow to beat players on the wing 1v1, he is just an extremely costly benchrider.

    3. We are giving Arteta too much rope, without realising that ultimately he will hang the Club with it. Tim has given figures and they are telling. Initially when Arteta was yelling his instructions one realised that the negative shit show was entirely of his making. Fortunately the micro management in games has lessened after the players told him it was distracting and causing problems. Regarding Tierney, Saka Arteta knows he will be gone without them or without ESRas well. AFC follows a strict Omertà so we might never know, but during Crystal Palace match apparently Arteta tried to use his “ intelligence” , ESR who is a respectful lad was scared to play his game and stayed within Arteta defined chequerboard. We deserved to lose that match ,but survival instinct got the handbrake off. Guess Tim’s graphs do not lie.

  5. Willian’s 3 assists were in the first game against Fulham.

    Since then, sweet FA.

    AS for the myth that Arteta is a great coach, it seems to be nothing more than that, a myth.

    Can any of us honestly see that we have seen any evidence of it?

    However, it is very much a matter of repeating a lie often enough, so that people will then believe it.

    Surely, any manager/coach who can so readily eschew the abilities of a world-class schemer, even one in the twilight of his career, can hardly be a great coach.

    1. What we’re seeing is a coach / manager who is in good measure learning as he goes, but clearly there are people close to him, including the players, who recognize there’s something special about him. I don’t think it’s a myth. It doesn’t mean he won’t make mistakes, as all good coaches do.

      I’d also point out that he inherited a badly misshapen squad that we are now finally starting to trim. I always thought he needed about two or three summers to get the team he wanted, with his fingerprints on it. Whether or not he’ll get that time is a real question. I’m interested to see how we handle the upcoming fixtures, which look daunting to say the least.

      1. Who are these people close to Arteta who are saying that there is something special about him?

        Not the players, because they will say anything not to get in his bad books. We have seen what happens then.

        Once again this myth about a defective squad. It was a squad full of experienced internationals. Please don’t suggest that a good, let alone a “special” coach could not do something with them, or produce anything better than the dross we have been seeing for the last year.

        If Arteta had not been lucky and Willian and Pepe not been ill, and he was forced to play ESR, and we saw how great it was to play with some creativity, do you imagine for one moment he would have done that voluntarily?

        In truth, I believe that had he not had that stroke of luck he would have been shown the door well before Lampard was.

        As it is, he showed on Saturday that his preferred style has not changed, and the rubbish football it produced.

        This “special” coach has produced rubbish for a year and you want him to continue to do so, relying on what the people close to him may be saying?

        This is taking wishful thinking to a new level.

        How many “fans” did the same thing during Emery’s 22 unbeaten run, during which we played some dreadful games and were lucky not to lose, and yet he was found out as soon as that run came to an end.

        Arteta has been found out already and yet people still churn out this nonsense about how great a coach he is.

        Please open your eyes and see what is going on and not rely on your hopes.

        1. It’s all been rubbish and the squad wasn’t defective? That’s wishful thinking in a different direction.

          1. You know that you both can be right at the same time:

            I think parts of the squad are not great and don’t fit the Premier League very well (Xhaka, Willian, Pepe).

            Arteta then needs to come up with a solution (especially to Xhaka) to help out the defense. So, he shit-cans duels – less pressing, less tackling, less dribbling – in favor of keeping possession and passing attacking moves. That’s why he doesn’t mind deep crosses (hard to be out of position when you cross deep) and other play which limits opposition chances to counter Arsenal.

            The question is whether or not you think he could come up with a different plan. I think he could but would have to drop players like Xhaka and take some chances on his younger players (like Willock, Azeez, etc.) and he’s probably afraid to do that.

          2. Yes, it can be both. I was simply pointing it out because I didn’t buy the narrative that it’s all on Arteta. He struggles both because he’s new at this and because he entered a team that was a badly patched together side, both in terms of the quality of players (though this is debatable) and the kinds of players in the squad.

            Believe me, I’ve had my share of frustration with Arteta, and I’m not wholly confident he’ll be in charge come this time next year. Much depends on how he negotiates the second half of the season. I don’t think he needs fourth to survive the chop, but there needs to be a sign that we’re in the ascendancy. There’s some consistency in our results, and there’s momentum heading into the summer. That kind of thing.

          3. Agreed – both are right. I doubt Arteta uses ESR without the injuries and sicknesses. He was on the ropes and fell into a solution because he had no other options. Still, the squad was full of guys that cost way too much and weren’t good enough. Credit to Edu and Arteta for getting the rebuild truly underway, tho. This upcoming run of games is going to show whether he can manage a roster more to his liking.

          4. I feel very strongly that we are going to get our asses handed to us over the next 6-8 games. I think we will also burn out of the Europa League, Benfica are a good team. Organized and drilled.

          5. Rumour has it Chelski approached Rangnick and Nagelsman but couldn’t agree terms so ended up with Tuchel. I just hope that if it doesn’t work out for us we make the right decision and bring in a solid experienced coach.

          6. It has been rubbish because of the way Arteta has been requiring the players to play, not because of the players.

    2. Yes, the “assists” (I use that terms loosely) were against Fulham in his first game. One was a corner. One was a goalmouth scramble, where he got a touch on the ball. A creative genius obviously! The only person being “creative” here is the statistician.

    3. No one is doing a study on the evidence that Arteta is a great coach. So guess it is let us give him the benefit of doubt. Arteta is on par with Edu which is is a strange arrangement, but given that he is obstinate, ultimately , likely all good and bad decisions are down to Arteta. Natilly dressed always, it is difficult to call him out.

  6. The reason we dribble less is because we sold our dribblers and didn’t replace them.

    Arteta likes Willian and Xhaka because they provide technical security – which is code for they don’t give possession away cheaply. This comes at a price as it means we’re risk averse but hey, we have a coach who plays two DMs in home games against mid table opposition.

    I asked on the previous thread what is our style of play? No one knows as we’ve been experimenting with line ups constantly. If you look at Wenger and Guardiola (assuming they’re Arteta’s key influences) he’s trying to play a possession based passing game. But as we know, some of the personnel (Willian and Xhaka are top of this list) just ain’t goodish enough.

    1. We are also mid table opposition.

      It’s difficult to play with two creative players in midfield when we only have one. We ditched our creative players (or stopped playing for us) a couple of years ago

      1. I disagree. We’re better than mid table but we’re playing and have been coached poorly. Did you go into this season thinking we’re worse than Villa, West Ham, Southampton or Everton?

  7. I am so over this dude. He’s not worth the analysis or discussion, he’s that bad and I can’t stand that we signed at Arteta continues to try to extract non-existent value from starting him. Enough. We need to move on.

  8. On another topic and sport, I have an irrational dislike of Tom Brady and his perfect life, career, etc. Everything. The man makes me physically ill. I don’t know why. But I do know that I hope Mahomes, Kelce and company subject Tampa Bay for a major beatdown, at home, IN Tampa Bay 2 weeks from now. Nothing, save Arsenal winning our matches ’til then would make happier. Anyone with me on that ?

    1. I am completely with you on this. I despise Tom Brady, and I’ll be cheering on Mahomes and co on Feb 7.

    2. I’ve watched Brady destroy my Steelers methodically for 20 years. (Plus a little help from spying, etc.) I have despised him. Now that he’s moved to Tampa, I can finally get some distance and say he’s the goat, even if I still dislike him a lot. 10 Super Bowl appearances is something we may never see again. Still rooting for KC, of course!!!

      1. I’m just old enough to remember the 70s Steelers as a little kid. Franco Harris, Bradshaw, Lynn Swan, John Stallworth, the Steel Curtain, Jack Lambert, Jack Ham, etc. Wow. What a team.

        1. I grew up in Pittsburgh at that time. So spoiled as a sports fan. Also got to see Roberto Clemente play several times, including the World Series in 1971. I revere him perhaps as much as any human being who ever walked the earth.

  9. I’ll say one thing about Willian, since he’s recently been at Chelsea and I’ve watched him for close to a decade.
    Willian is one of the best examples of social loafing you’ll ever see. When he gets comfortable, especially in an underperforming side or one that doing too well he start trying less.

    Just look at the Chelsea-Tot highlights for last season 2019, I think just before the restart. I can assure you it isn’t his legs. It’s his mindset.

    https://youtu.be/2pRH1nsYU4U

    1. Yes, that’s my impression too. Regardless of what the stats say (*gasp* sorry Tim), he just mooches around and doesn’t seem to give a toss.

    2. Interesting to hear that validated from the point of view of a Chelsea fan. Always ask the fans who go and watch the games week after week. They know who is trying and who isn’t.

  10. I used to hate the Pats, and hate Tom Brady.

    Then I started respecting outstanding, historic athletic ability and achievement; and being grateful as a sports fan, that I can see, in my time watching sport, the greatest footballer ever to have played the game.

    Relax. Appreciate greatness.

    I think that Mahomes and KC have the measure of the Bucs, but I will never, ever bet against Super Tom.

    1. Well said and I always appreciate your comments, but the thought of Brady winning yet another Lombardy trophy makes me ill. Go Chiefs!!!

  11. I like what Tim said about the team being told to dribble less and I understand that its also a bit unbelievable that Arteta would instruct his side in that way, but coaching is slightly complex and I feel both views are valid. How?

    Well, every instruction to do something is also an instruction to not do something else. Its the concept of opportunity cost in Accounting. The price of the option not taken. An instruction to play a short pass is also an instruction to not play a long pass, an instruction to keep possession is also an instruction to not play at pace, and most importantly an instruction to play set moves and crosses from deep is also an instruction to not improvise (in passing or positionally) or take on your man.

    This aspect of coaching is very important to take into account as a new coach, and has been my biggest problem in replicating Wengerball. You might have a clear idea of what you want your team to do, but you have a squad that consists of human beings and not robots, so they have different skills to players elsewhere and think differently which means different decisions on the pitch. Knowing this, a coach has to implement his style from the beginning to see what opportunity costs his tactics, decisions and instructions provide. The issues might be skillset-wise (which are solved through transfers), tactics not being suitable for a particular league (solved by change in approach) or communication issues (solved by finding a better outlet to provide instructions to players).

    Either way it is clear that Arteta’s instructions, whether direct or indirect, ask the players to follow particular patterns more than playing the game in front of them. They also discourage improvisation and demand attributes from players that they don’t have. All of this is fine if you have the means to not only purchase the type of players that suit your style, but also players who are of the calibre to take Arsenal to the next level.

    What Arteta’s should be learning right now is that, no matter what you see a player do elsewhere, you should also take into account how the player takes instructions on board, but most importantly though, what they will provide if they are unable to. You should have a clear understanding of what a player brings at their worst. this applies to experienced players a lot.

    The benefit with players like Saka and Smith-Rowe is that young players have a natural exuberance and audacity to not let instructions burden them too much, they are also not seen to be going against the coach if they try something different on the pitch which goes against instructions. For senior experienced players though, and this is why Arteta loves them, they know squad and club politics, which makes them a bit more conservative and less likely to stray from instructions even when the instructions are not working.

    So yes Arteta can instruct players to dribble less, but he doesn’t have to directly say it to the players for that to be in instruction, and looking at the numbers, that is the instruction.

    1. Precise, and so succinct. Good post Devlin. Something we feel in our bones but have no way to say properly. Do come in oftener

  12. brady is the goat! great players all have haters, which tom clearly has in the 7am community. seriously, who hates blaine gabbert?

    i got hip to tom watching him in college. it’s not because he was exciting; that was michael vick. i enjoyed watching his slow-motion replays. knowing what just happened and seeing it played back slowly and at a different tv angle, i often marveled at how brady saw things in real time, while avoiding getting crushed by linebackers, that i needed a slow-motion replay to see. he’s never been a great athlete but it doesn’t matter. as long as he can make basic throws and has the quality to read the most complex defenses like a dr. suess book, he’ll continue to play at a high level. 10 super-bowls? dude is a freaking jedi!

  13. oh, the thread. first, i want to agree whole-heartedly with jjgsol when he declares that arteta was not good by playing smith rowe, but lucky. i made the same point a few weeks ago. no way he would have dropped willian for esr if he wasn’t forced to. necessity is still the mother of invention…but it’s still more luck than invention, that arteta is still the arsenal boss.

    as for willian’s dribbling, i think it’s ridiculous to blame him without extenuation circumstances being considered. dribbling is nothing more than a technique for advancing the ball. willian’s diminished dribbling numbers does not imply that he’s inept or incapable. off the top of my head, i can give a few more acceptable reasons why.

    first, older players simply don’t dribble as much…they’ve learned to let the ball do the work.

    second, he’s out of position. willian has always been a striker and never been a cam. however, someone convinced arsenal that willian could do what ozil did and arteta is left trying to turn gold to platinum. it might be why he’s been so patient with willian.

    third, willian has not come to terms with arteta’s system. someone made the point that arteta doesn’t really have a system. there are too many chops and changes. namely, 3 at the back and no lacazette at center forward has made it a difficult season for arsenal, let alone, an out-of-position willian.

    fourth, the lack of mobility in attack has not facilitated willian’s endeavor. with lacazette at center forward, he facilitates the attack with clever, well-timed movement. this makes arsenal difficult to defend…a dribble could collapse a defense, but you can’t force the dribble to be on.

    fifth, i’m no fan of a guy dribbling the ball in the middle of the pitch. if you lose the ball centrally, you’re likely to get lit up on the counter. wllian is old enough to know that. dribbling in wide areas is not the same as dribbling centrally.

    i can go down the list but it’s more that arsenal are without clear direction than willian’s lack of dribbling. expecting a striker to suddenly become a cam doesn’t help matters. imagine if psg suddenly played neymar as a cam. do you think he would struggle?

    1. Willian has played almost his entire career wide right forward, exactly where Arteta is playing him.

      He was dribbling just fine 12 months ago.

    2. willian has always been a striker and never been a cam

      Willian is not a CAM, Josh. He’s always been a aright sided attacker, who occasionally played on the left; so therefore:

      i’m no fan of a guy dribbling the ball in the middle of the pitch

      is not really the issue. The issue is that instead of attacking the space outside/behind the fullback when placed to do so at RW, he stops and passes the ball backwards. Look at the goal in which Cedric got Auba a tap-in against Newcastle by attacking that space

      Even so, I disagree. Central ball-ferrying is a line-breaking skill that we lack, and we absolutely need for stubborn defences.

  14. sorry, i keep trying to walk away from this but the computer keeps calling me back.

    the main focus needs to be, not on willian or smith rowe, but lacazette. at the start of the season, despite playing with a back 3, lacazette led the line for arsenal and they got wins. then, arteta decided to get cute, playing eddie and even aubameyang at center forward ahead of laca. suddenly, the wins turned to draws and losses. then, auba picks up a calf injury…we often refer to this moment that esr came to prominence but something else happened; lacazette was restored at center forward. suddenly, arsenal begin winning again.

    if you play willian with lacazette, would he be better than smith rowe? i don’t know that but i do believe he would be better. he’s still playing out of position while cam is natural for esr. willian started the season playing okay behind laca. proper center forward play makes a tremendous difference. not only has it turned around arsenal’s season, but look at the paradigm shift in spain. atletico madrid, despite losing partey to arsenal, sit atop the table, ten points clear of barcelona with a game in hand…after bringing in their center forward, luis suarez. messi is so frustrated, he got the first red card of his career last week. it’s tough to score goals without good center forward play…and luis suarez is still a world class center forward.

    1. As Tim pointed out, Willian for the most part is playing wide on the right, which is exactly where he played for Chelsea.

  15. This is great anaylsis Tim, thanks, and a good discussion. Lots of good points about possession retention, styles, etc.

    I don’t know the difference between a dribble and a carry in the stats on fbref – carry is defined as controlling the ball with your feet (while you move) but there’s no definition for dribble. And for Willian they are both down, so I guess it’s moot.

    Bottom line seems to be he’s being played / coached to pass, not dribble, maybe as a function of playing further back, and he’s struggling to do it in a progressive and decisive way.

  16. Loved the sarcasm in a couple of places. You called this before/just around the totally abysmal run, when you were taking about the low margin, low block football you were seeing.
    Arteta has seemed like a spontaneity-killing coach to me. Between him and Edu, I see two arch political players who are building their careers. The Arsenal? Simply a vehicle.

  17. And…sounds like both Auba and Tierney are going to be out today. The rest of the team is going to need to step it up.

  18. Great post Tim. I understand why we took a chance on Willian. The long term goal of the club has to be rebuild a team that can compete for the top 4 over the next couple of years but you can’t just tank the next 2 seasons for a rebuild and Willian looked like a potential short term bandage to help us compete. Statistically he had the best season of his career last year and that almost never happens to a player in their age 31 season. That is the sort of anomaly which is almost never replicated which is why Chelsea was willing to let him go on the free. A drop off from his play was inevitable and the only question was how much. Father Time never loses and every player in history loses their ability to influence the game at some point and in this case its unfortunate for us that his drop off has been a fall off a cliff rather then a slow fade

  19. With regard to Arteta he has done an excellent job of rebuilding defensive solidarity. We had 2 seasons in a row of conceding 51 goals per season and being mid table or worse in terms of goals of goals conceded. Now we are now 3rd best in the league. Fixing the defense was imperative and what we have done represents a huge improvement. Winning the FA cup last season and salvaging Europa league football was almost miraculous

    The place we have struggled this season is scoring goals. Even with all of our players in good form we are a team which would have struggled to score more then 60 goals in a 38 game league season. Then you lose most of the production from the one player who in the past couple seasons has scored 35% of our goals and any team is going to struggle no matter who is the manager. You can’t compensate for that sort of loss. Its simple math. When you start at 60 goals per year and subtract around 30% you are left with around 40 goals in a 38 game season.

    1. We have hardly “fixed” the defense. Improved the defense, at the cost of attack, sure. But it’s not like Arsenal are some incredible Simeone defensive side. And even Simeone’s teams score more goals than us.

      But I agree with you, 23 goals scored in 19 matches is atrocious. It’s a fireable offense, really.

  20. I’ll be honest and this isn’t hyperbole, he doesn’t even look like a real football player when he’s out there, he’s that bad. Slow, wasteful, barely can make a good pass, any half decent pass he does make is a simple one backwards from the seems of it. I would be really impressed if we loan/sell him in the summer, that kind of ruthlessness would say a lot about the direction we’re going.

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