Another dour draw: get used to it

A Nil-Nil draw between Arsenal and Crystal Palace last night means that Arsenal have been held scoreless seven times in their first 18 matches this season. That is the worst scoreless start since the 1994/95 season when Arsenal finished 14th in a 22 team Premier League. That season, Arsenal also started off with 7 scoreless in the first 18 matches and finished the season being held to a goose egg 14 times in 42.

And what can be said about this match other than both teams were equally matched, both managers set their teams up to nullify the other, and neither team had any real chances to speak of. It was the kind of match where you say “credit to ____ (he/she/they) got pretty much the performance they wanted” and I mean that for both teams.

Arsenal perhaps looked a bit tired in places but it’s difficult to pick out which moments the Arsenal attack looked tired, which moments they looked very average thanks to a midfield that doesn’t take chances, and which moments they just looked hemmed in (hemmed out would be a better description) by a well drilled Crystal Palace team.

Fatigue can’t entirely explain the poor Arsenal attack. Because in defense, Arsenal were focused and looked very sharp. Granit Xhaka in particular had a great game defending Wilfred Zaha and he’d just played as many minutes in the overtime win over Newcastle as some of the others. It was a case that in matches where teams are successful in pushing Arsenal into wide areas, by defending deep and central, they limit Lacazette’s touches, and prevent attacks for Arsenal in half spaces and through the channels. Lacazette had 20 touches in 80 minutes, the fewest of any player on the pitch.

Teams that deny Lacazette air tend to do well against Arsenal. In matches where Lacazette has fewer than 32 touches, Arsenal have won 2, drawn 1, and lost 4. Aston Villa set the blueprint here: holding Lacazette to 14 touches and forcing Arsenal to play wide. It’s a basic approach and makes sense: Lacazette isn’t the kind of forward who will win a lot of knockdowns, he’s not incredibly mobile, he doesn’t make runs, and he’s not effective at dropping deep into a false 9 to draw defenders out and create space in the box for his teammates. In short, simply marking Lacazette gives a defensive team a huge advantage because.

That leaves Arsenal with long crossing as our main threat while none of the Arsenal players are good at heading the ball. And as we saw yesterday Arsenal crossing without Tierney on the left is, well, it’s not great.

Even the Arsenal subs didn’t light the night up. Thomas was a breath of fresh air but just why Arteta took Ceballos off instead of Xhaka is a mystery. Arsenal needed more directness in the middle and Thomas and Ceballos both provided that while Xhaka played balls wide to fullbacks most of the game. And don’t @ me with the “14 progressive passes” or how many yards Xhaka had progressive passing. You only need to look at his pass map where he had exactly 3 passes (of 111) into the danger area, or watch him time and again collect, take 60 touches, and then pass back after one of the forwards have made a run to see that those stats are covering a turd of a game going forward. Rob Holding completed more final third passes than Xhaka, and had more key passes. Rob Holding was literally more incisive and direct with his passing than Arsenal’s midfielder.

And then there’s Nicolas Pepe. What an incredible drop off in terms of expectations. And what a cautionary tale in terms of transfers. It’s possible for him to make a comeback in his career, he’s got a great left leg for distance shots, but he’s been frozen out of nearly all creative play at Arsenal and when he does get on the pitch it’s just to turn the ball over. The fact that Saka takes the corners now – even when Pepe is on the pitch – is about the most damning bit of information I can think of. Set piece delivery was one of his strengths in France and he’s not only lost his starting job to a 19 year old with zero experience on that side of the pitch, he’s not even allowed to take corners or free kicks when he is on the pitch.

Gooners like to complain about the waste of having Ozil in the squad and his 18m salary is egregious but between Pepe and Willian, they look like they are going to take over all of Ozil’s wasted salary and provide almost none of the benefit. Arsenal need to lean heavily on Willian’s agent and get him to China immediately. With Pepe, the situation is even more dire: investment in Pepe is going to top £110m and at this point, we would be lucky if a team would take him on a free and just pay his salary.

Arsenal have a new administrator, Dick Garlick, who is in charge of exactly all of this transfer mess. And he’s going to have to show us just how much spice he brings to this club. If he can’t solve Arsenal’s massive problems with old and useless players, he’s going to end up roasted.

If this were 10 years ago, we would be livid by a result like this. I know because ten years ago we were livid at results like this. But this is where we are and where we are going to be for the foreseeable future. Until we can promote good youth players (heck even hanging on to some would be a win) and bring in young guys with the right profile at the right price, Arsenal are going to continue to have games like yesterday and remain a mid-table team.

Qq

27 comments

  1. Ceballos looked to me like he was tiring and getting a little sloppy. That may be why he was substituted instead of Xhaka. Same thing was clearly happening to Laca towards the end…he was chasing and coming in late on tackles, probably both tiredness and frustration.
    We clearly need a plan B for these situations where we’re trying to find a goal against a deep and central defense. We can’t have scored more than 1-2 all season in that situation. None of Auba, Laca, Pepe or Willian seem to be able be that option with any degree of success. Nketiah is a poacher who might be, but hasn’t shown it in the PL. Which leaves Martinelli, who’s a maybe if he can stay healthy, and Balogun, who may be out the door. I think both of them are in some ways better than any of the more senior options, but I don’t like the idea of depending on kids against the big, strong PL defenders.
    Would still be great if we could pry Giroud back from Chelsea, but the odds of that seem low.

  2. Your conclusion is sad but true.

    Not just Laca but Auba was rendered pretty much redundant also.

    ESR was marginalised. Arteta didn’t make any changes to provide him more freedom. That’s a concern when it was so clear he was struggling to make an impact and we’re so dependent on him.

    The subs didn’t work but they rarely do as the changes are more often than not like-for-like.

    And how slow was Luiz’ distribution?

    Ceballos was tidy but it feels like that’s his limit and we’ll never get any more from him. I really hope we don’t bring him back next season.

    We’re just not a dynamic team. I’m not sure how much of that is the players or the style of play? Feels like we went out not to lose.

    Palace probably felt they edged it on the balance of chances.

    After Newcastle the run-in gets tougher. Will be interesting to see if we can climb the table but I think 10th place might well be our ceiling.

  3. Yesterday it was very frustrating to see, once again, Ceballos ferrying the ball through big gaps in midfield which slows our attack down. We help opposing teams play a low block when our forwards refuse to participate in the build up through the middle third and run ahead and spread out, like my son’s U10 rep team, rather than come to the ball, play shorter passes and create overloads in areas of the pitch. If you want to send the forwards up once we gain possession, then you have to be prepared to launch long balls, long diagonals and trust that we’ll win the 1 v 1 duels. I saw one long pass from Ceballos for Auba to run onto and, frankly, Auba screwed it up. Otherwise, we try to play a ground passing game but spread out as though we’re a long-ball team. I watch Leicester play and Rodgers seems to have the right balance between an attractive passing game but quick build-up to make use of Vardy’s counter-attacking acumen.

    Pepe is pretty much done for me at this point. How such a one-dimensional player warranted a transfer fee that large is scandalous.

    How about the rumour that we may be signing 31-year old Neto as a back-up keeper? Only 23.5M… hahaha, another waste of money if that happens. If we do that, we know we’re Kia Joorabchian’s bitch.

    1. Oh man, there was an infuriating counter on a corner where ESR stopped and formed a little triangle when he should have been making a run. Little things like that will get better over time, but man we have so many little things to work on.

      This season with Arteta makes me appreciate how quickly some managers (Rodgers, Ancelotti, and to a lesser extent Mourinho) are able to implement their style of play. I think that’s yet another aspect that our crew are learning on the job.

    1. It’s a saucy development, for sure. The contract and transfer context at Arsenal will weigh heavy around his neck, and fans will be crushed if he gets it wrong (the knives will come out, for sure). It’s true there’s a real chance he stinks up the place, given our problems, but if he gets it right, we’ll be able to savor a well-balanced squad. It really depends on whether or not he’s one of those negotiators who likes to butter up agents. Either way, he’s a key ingredient to the process, and after years of the dim-witted Law, let’s hope a bulb finally goes off with respect to our transfer dealings!

      1. This was so bad, it’s genius. My apologies, I just passed gas- a Nosferatoot. Goota go, have to make every second…Count! I gotta million of ’em. Don’t forget to tip on the way out. Cheers!

    2. Very long time reader / first time commenter (frankly always learned more from your collective insights than I could offer).

      On this one however I thought you might be interested that I went to Newcastle University with and was very good friends with Rich Garlick. Sadly lost touch with him since, albeit that some of our mutual friends are still in touch with him (naturally I’ve told them to let me know when I should “lump on” anyone 😂)

      He was an England Schoolboys footballer (I think he was on Rotherham’s youth books) and studied law at Uni – where he was also on the University 1st 11 and may even have been their captain. Probably middle of the class intelligence-wise (he got a 2:1 I think) but I knew quite a few of his contemporaries and without a doubt he was the one you wouldn’t want to face in a negotiation.

      He’s a no-nonsense yorkshire boy, very quick mind and sharp tongue and calls a spade a spade. The background to him getting the West Brom job was because he’d represented a player (I don’t recall who) so well in negotiations with the Club that Jeremy Peace (their owner at that time) headhunted him from his law firm!

      Obviously it’s 20+ years since we were at Uni and I have no insight into his professional judgement or how well he’ll be able to (help) restore the Club to winning ways. However I’d be very surprised if he was interested in buttering up agents other than for purposes of winning a negotiation. Just not his character at all. And I equally have no doubt he’ll have no problem telling Edu to back off Kia etc if he thinks he’s detrimentally cosy.

      Wish him all the best in the job (obviously from a selfish Arsenal supporter perspective but also because he’s a good guy). Oh, and one last anecdote on his name (gods honest truth):

      Garlick was the left back for our Universriy 1st 11. The right back was called Tom Onions!

  4. Thanks for the depth of insight Tim. I’d read a lot of people praising Xhaka’s performance, and it didn’t sit right with me. Your analysis shows why. His ball progression is so limited, and deathly slow. Our tempo was so different in this game than in recent weeks. No one touch passing. Lots of multi-touch horseshoe patty cake. And yes, credit to Palace for a tight block.

    Without Tierney, we weren’t able to stretch them on the left, which allows more space on the right. They could sit in the middle and stifle our attack. And they wouldn’t give ESR a half second on the ball.I keep reminding myself that this is a rebuild. It will not get solved overnight, and with young players AND a yound coach, we will have dull performances. Fits and starts. I suppose a downward cycle had to follow the recent upswing. This is who we are for now.

    1. I think his passing is fine. The issue is he’s one dimensional in so many ways. Teams know he’s not going to drive forward with the ball, they know he’s not going to hit it on his right foot, they know he’s not going to run beyond them for a through ball, and they know it’s probably going either out wide or backwards when he has it. Then without the ball, it’s always an adventure watching him try to defend space or tackle a more athletic runner. Some of that is just who the player is, some of that is the way he’s being asked to play, and some is just football in general. He needs a partner who can offset those limitations and a system that plays to his strengths. Don’t all players, you ask? Sure, but some need that more than most and Arsenal has become a destination for such players in recent years. Tim Stillman calls them “Goldilocks” players because the porridge can’t be too hot or too cold for them but juuuuust right. Xhaka’s “juuust right” is sitting in front of a back four, breaking play up and then spraying long passes to quick outlets in transition. That’s not the type of football Arsenal want to play. We ask him to play in the opponent’s half, to mark players in the open field, to avoid turning the ball over in the center at all costs, and to spread play wide to open the pitch in possession. It’s really only that last bit that’s in his wheelhouse.

      So I believe Xhaka is doing very well given the circumstances. He’s a model pro giving it his all for his club, doing a job not well suited to him and never complaining about it. Reminds me of his manager. Doesn’t mean he hasn’t had poor games or that he’s “the future” of the Arsenal midfield. I think Arsenal needs a more modern midfielder with more athleticism, the ability to move the ball on the dribble, the ability to make runs behind the defense, and the ability to tackle in the open field. I do think he’s making the best of a tough situation for him and the club, and I admire and respect him for that.

  5. FYI folks, having been involved in this production a little bit music-wise, I highly recommend it. It’s has it’s flaws (I agree with much of The Slate review) but I won’t do you wrong on this – check it out:
    One Night in Miami true story: What’s fact and what’s fiction in the new movie. (slate.com)
    Oh, and Regina King is just a fantastic person, pleasure to work with. The Beatles did meet with Ali in Miami for the Sonny Liston fight. And for the record, Sonny refused to meet with the Fab Four so they ended up meeting with (then) Cassius Clay:
    The Beatles & Muhammad Ali: The Story Behind the Iconic Photos of Their 1964 Meeting – Biography

  6. Another excellent post Tim. I agree with everything you said.

    I don’t believe Arteta set up the team with the main focus to stop Palace. I know he really wanted to win that game and I suspect he set up his team to hopefully recreate the attacking success we had against Chelsea and West Brom. Unfortunately the attacking revival we saw against Chelsea and WBA was short lived and it did not work yesterday. The manager can’t kick the ball so there is only so much a he can do if he does not have the players who are capable of executing his game plan effectively on a consistent basis and its very difficult to score when you just don’t have players who are good at scoring goals.

    The positive thing is the defense is back after the 5 game run of red cards and conceding goals. It’s much easier for a manager to influence the teams defense and Arteta has done as well as anyone could have

  7. Now that Auba has stopped scoring its easy to see just how valuable his goals have been to the club over the last 2 years. Some will say it was a mistake to give him a new contract but this year proves we don’t have anyone who can replace him and it shows how much this clubs needs his goals. The fact that he has not been scoring makes the deal seem like a bad one in retrospect but prospectively we had no other choice then to give him a new contract

  8. One of the things I expected Raul Sanllehi to do well was to skulk in the corridors of power to get the league and the refs to treat Arsenal better. Having worked for the PL, maybe Garlick Dick will cause a real stink if they don’t.

    If he can also combine that with being able to sell better and push out the blood sucking vampires from the club, all the better.

  9. ESR did not play his normal game where he runs alongside the ball carrier and we have 1-2 fast progression. Tierney nor Martineli were playing, but his interaction with them might be later. ANM , another of his growing up playmates was in, but definitely rusty with disuse. ESR seemed to be waiting for the ball in fixed place most time which is unusual for his exuberant style. Was this some coaching instruction ? We might never know

  10. We have seen the same thing dozens and dozens of times since the start of project youth 15 years ago where a player like ESR gets off to a great start for a few games and the hype grows exponentially. However the league gets a film on the player and the early adrenaline surge wears off and he never comes very close to replicating the early success. Time will tell where the true ceiling is for ESR but its far to early to predict that he will be the solution to the lack of attacking influence from our central midfield. If history is any guide I suspect the game we saw yesterday is closer to the longer term reality rather then the game he had against WBA or Chelsea.

    On the other hand Saka has been effective for long enough that I think we can safely say he has a solid future. His long term ceiling will depend of whether or not he starts to score more goals. Without goals his ceiling is a player like Ox, Iwobe, Ashely Young or Willian from of a few years ago. If he starts to score more goals then the ceiling becomes much higher similar to someone like Sadio Mane, Alexis Sanchez, Son Hueng-Min or even Bobby Pires. The players from the first group are all nice players but I would clearly prefer one of the latter group.

  11. There’s no one in Arteta’s team is capable of performing a piece of line-breaking magic.

    *A helping of Ozilian caviar in the 6-yard box
    *An exquisitely timed Ramsey run from deep
    *A peak Wilshere adhesive dribble

    Of late, Emile’s been the master of the give-and-go, but he couldn’t get into this game. Turns out that Tierney is absolutely central to our play, and AMN struggled at LB. He’s played the position competently before — this is not a knock on his abilities — but he just wasn’t at the races against Palace.

    btw, is it a nailed on part of the job description that our contracts chief be named Dick? (crossing my fingers that this makes it past the filter)

  12. It’s clear to me how Arteta’s lack of experience is killing us. Don’t get me wrong I think he will be a great coach one day. But we all know that today’s football is all about today. The Arsenal squad keeps getting unbalanced. How is it that Mustafi stays on while Kola is allowed to leave? We are now short at left-back, over the brim at center back. I will be shocked if he doesn’t get at least a central midfielder today. You all can be hailing ESR all you want but that kid cannot carry this Arsenal side. The likes of Willian and Willock have made ESR look too good. But if you watch closely he does a basic Ten job – which is to make runs and pass forward as quick as possible. But he has not shown he is a ball carrier which is exactly what we need.
    I keep saying how funny it is how Arteta didn’t see a place for Torreira in this team. The dude was a fine midfielder who could do box-box work on our behalf something that no midfielder can do now at Arsenal aside maybe Willock. But you just have to look at most of Torreira’s goals and see how many were from the box. If we get the sense we should look at Wilshere.
    There is too much inexperience at Arsenal – Arteta, Edu, Josh, Mertascaker and they are killing us slowly. The pandemic football has really brought out our true colors and there is no hiding place now.
    I hope we overcome and not end up being the modern Newcastle united.

    I have to say this year’s competition feels like a relegation battle. Was surprised to see that the first in the table is still on 30 something points.Shiiiiiiiiiiiit!!!!!

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