Willian and the sunk cost fallacy

Sometimes you can just look at a lineup and see that it’s not going to work. Back in the day it was any time that Arsene played Igors Stepanovs. Then came the dreaded Squillaci days. And who can forget when Unai Emery played “The Lich”. These days it can be a bit more difficult, because Arsenal seem to be missing so many pieces but there is no question that when fans see Willian in the starting lineup they know they are in for a turgid display from Arsenal.

Willian wasn’t always a bad player but three years ago he lost a step. Then two years ago he lost another step. And this year he’s lost so many steps that he’s practically the knight in Holy Grail, down on severed legs, no arms, threatening to bit ankles. The only difference is that Willian doesn’t even have that much fight left in him. He often just lies there wallowing.

Willian’s main redeeming quality is that he doesn’t lose the ball. It’s a pretty neat trick too because when he starts to go forward what he does instead of losing the ball is stop and turn around. Sometimes he passes the ball backward. Those are the best moments. Other times he will turn and face the defender again, pretend he’s going to dribble, and then pass backwards. He does this trick on the break, he does it on throw ins, he even often passes back on corners. If Wenger was praising him he’d probably say that “Willian is becoming Arsenal’s backpassmaster.”

It’s not just the way he slows up play. He also doesn’t move without the ball. That’s something you could probably get away with if you were the team’s golden boot winner and damn-near nailed on goal scorer. But if you’re the “#10” and you stand still like an inanimate carbon rod? You’re just taking up valuable space and making the opposition’s job easier.

It was never going to be easy for a Chelsea player to make the transition to Arsenal. To paraphrase Arsene Wenger: “to win over the critics he would have to not just be better than our local kids but significantly better”. To be accepted by fans, he would have to be so good that he made us forget that we have so many good, young, players in this squad.

But thankfully the club have some players who are the kind of talent that Arsenal need to get into the top four and they are emerging this season. Emile Smith-Rowe came on late in the first half and freed the blockage in Arsenal’s attack. The football started to flow with his first touch. In 60 minutes without Smith-Rowe, Arsenal only took 9 shots. In 60 minutes with Smith-Rowe, Arsenal took 16 shots. Case closed.

Smith-Rowe lost the ball 4 times (according to Opta via WhoScored) and Willian only lost the ball once. But the speed of Arsenal’s play was so much faster, so much more incisive and frightening to the Newcastle defenders. There will be mistakes when you’re trying to create. That’s the simple reality of creativity on a football pitch.

After the match Arteta said something about how we need to keep trying with Willian. No, you don’t and here’s why: Willian makes the match more difficult for Arsenal. This is the same problem we had with Derelichtsteiner. If you play him, you have to carry him. He becomes a liability (in this case an offensive liability). He’s not making things easier out there and he’s not winning us matches. It’s better to not play him than to carry him for even 30 minutes in a match. Just like “The Lich” the best option here is if he never plays for Arsenal again.

The sunk cost fallacy is strong with this player. A lot of people think “we can’t move him, we are paying him, so we might as well play him.” But playing him also has costs and since there are almost no upsides, we are just throwing good money after bad.

There’s a lesson here for Edu and Arteta: don’t buy rival players over 30 unless you’re sure they are going to turn you into a title winner. In fact, don’t just be sure, be “Kieran Trippier told me to lump on” sure.

Qq

75 comments

  1. Yeah, honestly, if they can manage to sit Ozil, who gets paid more and never looked this bad, then they can sit Willian. We do need some kind of backup for ESR though. Just not Willian. AMN? Azeez is probably too green, though he looks promising. But I wouldn’t pay lots of dollars for a Brandt or Buendia only to displace ESR.
    As far as Chelsea castoffs go, Cech did a decent enough job, except for mostly being unable to save PKs.

    1. Unable to save PKs and showed his age in the 2015/16 season where he let in the most shots from outside the box by a huge margin. That was one of the worst summer transfers in Wenger’s long career and proof to me that he needed to go.

      Oh and that January, when we needed a replacement for Cazorla – who’s leg was being eaten alive by bacteria – he brought in Elneny, one of the worst MFers I’ve seen at this club since Frimpong.

      1. Loved the opening paragraph Tim! Haven’t gawked at our legendary list of defender-sauraus in a while. I’m sure you could fit a certain Mikel Silvestre into this Frankenstein’s mix of monsters frolicking as defenders.

        As for Frimpong, despite his dwarfish stature, at least he looks more fierce and intimidating in terms of outlook as compared to the kind faced Egyptian.

        Willian ought to be better off and more productive masquerading as the lead double of Black Eye Peas based on his form this season.

        His (not so) shocking clearance in the magpie’s 6 yard box after collecting Auba’s rebound should be the final nail in his Gunners swan song.

    2. If ESR gets injured or is unavailable (see yesterday red card downgraded to yellow), Arsenal are in big trouble.
      Finding someone who can deputise for him is a priority but not it’s not going to be easy:

      • William is atrocious when he’s played in that position.
      • Norwich is not going to sell Emi Buendia. They are fighting for promotion and are not going to sell one of their best players. I doubt Arsenal can afford Julian Brandt in the current financial situation.
      • Miguel Azeez plays more in the Xhaka/Partey position from what I saw.
      • The best academy player that can play in that number 10 position is Ben Cottrell, but he’s unproven at top level (only a couple of pre-season and EL appearances) and he is also a bit short.

      There are plenty of promising attacking midfielders in the Under18, but we have to wait a couple of years for them.

    3. I thought Gallas did ok apart from ‘the obvious.’

      I never really warned to him, but he was decent, had a habit of popping up with headed goals and seemed committed.

      1. gallas was fantastic. i also liked yossi benayoun and wish arsenal could have kept him.

        as far as cech not saving penalties, no one is good at saving penalties; some are simply lucky. most penalties that aren’t scored are missed (poorly taken), not saved.

        as for the goals from distance cech was “at fault” for, they were shots taken with absolutely no pressure on the ball and he still managed to save most, but his teammates allowed opponents to follow up. i can see xhaka, plain as day, allowing players to tee off on cech from 25-yards out. you can’t allow professional footballers to do that to your keeper…they’re gonna score.

        1. “Gallas was fantastic”. This is not serious is it?

          Keepers don’t save a lot of pens but they do save some. Cech had the worst penalty saves record of any keeper from 2014 until his retirement. Prior to joining Arsenal, he saved 16/63 – 26%, after joining Arsenal he saved 1/18, 6%. He was literally one of the best in the game at saving penalties, up to about 2014.

          The non pressure thing with Cech is only vaguely true. But you have an odd memory because Xhaka didn’t play for Arsenal in 2015/16.

          He did “save most” because he saved 58/69 on target but he also “allowed most” because folks scored 16% of their shots on target. It wasn’t just because we didn’t press that season, we had more blocks from distance than any of the top teams, including block kings Leicester. It was because he couldn’t move his fucking feet.

          of the keepers who faced 20+ shots on target from outside the box only Courtois, Hennesey, and Elliot had a worse saves record than Cech from outside the box. All keepers known for their poor foot speed.

          If Cech had even had an AVERAGE saves record from outside the box that season we would have conceded 4 fewer goals.

          1. yes, i think gallas was fantastic. he was arsenal captain during the ’07-’08 campaign. sure, he had the moment during the birmingham city game when eduardo had the leg break but it was an emotional day; as captain, he’s allowed a human moment. likewise, i’m sure he talked to clichy about not getting trapped into that challenge where he conceded the late penalty. this guy won two premier leagues with chelsea so with his experience, i think he felt the title slipping that day, hence the “meltdown”.

            as for cech, i didn’t track that you’re speaking of the ’15-’16 season; my bad. the first half of the ’15-’16 season still had coqzorla and arsenal were pretty much in the title chase until the end of 2015 when coqzorla ended with injuries. i’m sure that’s when most of those blocks you speak of happened. however, with those injuries, and ramsey bombing forward, arsenal didn’t have a balanced screen in front of their defense. as a result, folks were teeing off on cech with no pressure. i don’t care who your keeper is, if professional footballers good enough for the premier league are lining shots up on your keeper, he’s gonna concede.

            as for the penalties he “saved” before he got to arsenal, i’m sure most were simply not well-taken. likewise, if the premier league had a hall of fame, i’m pretty sure cech and his slow feet would be in it.

        2. Relative to no-one saving penalties, I’m going to stand up for my now retired home boy, Nick Rimando. That’s one thing he was certainly known for.

  2. You do have to persevere with him because we, like many other clubs, have no money to sign anyone and we have Willian here for 2.5 years, on a big contract, whether we like it or not. He played well last year, he’s played poorly this year which probably explains why he lacks the confidence to move forwards. Just giving up on a player when he’s having a bad time shows no management ability and it’s not sustainable because all players will go through bad spells.

      1. About Ozil, Edu and Arteta will point the finger of failure at the previous management.

        However for Willian they will have to point it at themselves. Also it’s not like they bought Willian who had a wonderful season before dropping of or even had a good start. Hence, Arteta feels the responsibility to make him perform. Alas, Willian has become too old for it. Arteta for his own sake, should file this under ‘experience gained’.

    1. The great thing about signing Willian on a free is that we can sell him for zero and only be out the salary we’ve paid for him thus far… I’m sure there’s teams in Saudi Arabia or China that will take him and his salary if he’s offered for free. Tell Kia to get that done and in return we’ll sign two of his U-21 up and comers from Brazil.

      I wonder too how much of Willian’s poor effort is tied to the fact that his mate, Luiz, is out at the end of this season and that has him down contemplating playing at Arsenal alone.

      Regardless… remember when we had so much DEPTH at the beginning of the season? Today’s game showed what a farce that is. Pepe, Willian, Willock, Reiss-Nelson, Luiz…. all need to move on.

      1. willian had offers to go to asia and china but wanted to stay in england. it’s not so easy to ship him out…he’ll have to agree to leave and will need to be replaced but not impossible. if saka and pepe continue to play clearly better than him, it could happen.

        1. He’s getting murdered in the press (rightly so). I’d be surprised if he can swallow that for a further 2.5 years.

          1. agreed. however, if he isn’t playing because he’s clearly fallen behind saka and pepe, no one will talk about him. if he’s not playing, he may want to leave.

    2. Maybe arsenal should start by fining Willian £5 \10 million for that u sanctioned trip to Dubai

  3. When you look at afcs team that started tonight the real problem is plain to see …..
    Soames,Luis,Elneney,Willock,Willian are playing and not one of them are any good.
    Gabriel is out injured and Mari comes in one good player for another but the squad is half full with deadwood like the above mentioned and Afc have no strength in depth.

  4. Willian is the outright worst Brazilian playing in Europe. I would terminate(and maybe bring charges against him) for breach of contract, because he isn’t doing anything we signed him up for

  5. The Willian of today is like a Brazilian-made Fiat Uno. Trust me, that’s a car you want to drive if you have a choice. Smith Rowe and Saka on the other hand? Aston Martins, the both of them. One a Vantage, the other a DB11.

    I hear Gabriel rolled his ankle in pre-game. How typically Arsenal.

    I don’t know that we’re quite sort yet but Willian and Pepe, aside it’s a welcome development to once again enjoy watching my club.

  6. Good result, poor game. Luiz, Tierney and Pepe were our greatest threats up to ‘60. Second half Toon gave us a run. Could even have nicked it at the death. WSR and Xhaka added urgency and incision. Lacazette stretched the play. I think Toon gassed towards the end.

    As for Willian, Tim Stillman has summed it up recently. He’s an out-and-out winger. It’s too late to convert him into anything else. And if his legs are gone, then he’s not going to be a good winger.

      1. The bit I don’t understand is:
        Let’s imagine, just for one second, Willian does find a bit of form. Why would you pay big money for a 30 year old on a 3 year contract, to keep one of our promising young players out of the first team, who quite clearly deserve to be there?
        A shockingly bad football and business decision.

    1. Carroll saved us first by shooting with his feet and missing.

      Then Leno saved us twice.

      1. Yes what a lump Carroll is. If you’d tuned in after 90 minutes you might have thought it was a good game

  7. God help us if Saka picks up an injury. Pepe is pretty average, but Willian actually ruins the team.

    So disappointed to hear about Martinelli’s injury. Let’s hope it’s not too serious.

    Oh, and I was bored the other day so I watched a training video, and quite enjoyed the camaraderie between Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney. Holding’s footwork, by the way, is really impressive (and I’m not even going to qualify that with “for a big man”…he’s genuinely skillful).

    1. Yeah, I like Holding. He’s always suffered by being surrounded by players who either won’t or can’t defend.

    1. I love Barry Glendenning making out that ESR tried to murder that guy today. What a jackass.

      1. Is there a good play by play writer on the Guardian’s text commentary? If theyre not kissing ManU’s rear, theyre snideing Arsenal.

        1. Did you know that in The Guardian’s pre season podcast Barry forecast that Arsenal would finish third in the PL behind Liverpool & City and that Chelsea would be nowhere with Lampard getting sacked and Man U mid-table? I like the Guardian’s football writers and it’s no surprise (to me anyway) that they regularly clean up in the awards and I think Tim once had ambitions to write for them.
          Teams make their own press.

        2. Arseblog is probably the best bet for play by play commentary that won’t make you mad at the commentary.

      2. Yeah, it was barely even a foul! Smith-Rowe was actually falling backwards and stuck out a leg. All the bloke did was run into it. Cue much screaming and playing dead. The ref was completely taken in by it. For once VAR actually did something useful (eventually)

  8. In the 58th minute, as the ball cannoned off Willian from a poor first touch and he ran after it like a man wearing wellies running in mud, the colour guy on TV commentary said, “he doesn’t look as if he can run with any sort of pace.” Later he spoke about the air of disinterest that the player was exuding. Willian had a few good moments, mainly combination play around the box, but that was when he didnt have to exert himself. He has lost a step or two.

    Emile Smith Rowe has proved me wrong, and I love it. I’ve always rated his energy and movement, but wasnt sure of his tactical IQ. Sorry, Emile… I got that wrong. The thing I like is that understanding he has forged with Lacazette. They seem to know the exact movement of each other on the pitch. Laca’s return to form has coincided with ESR starting games.

    Pleased to see Xhaka have a nice cameo. His one-two with Tierney for Auba’s goal was beautiful.

    1. Agreed Claude. Apart from anything else, he has got Laca playing again. Something I didn’t think was possible. Still can’t work out what has happened with Auba. On present performances, I don’t see how he and Pepe can fit it the side. It just doesn’t work. Willian? Forget it. He’s finished. That’s assumed he started in the first place.

      1. ESR has been at the club a good many years. I remember watching him in an age group match. You could see he had something, but then an awful lot fall by the wayside. He’s a Croydon kid, which is a pretty drab South London suburb. Most players from that neck of the woods end up at Crystal Palace. Steve Rowley might have been the scout. Not sure. Rowley was famous for pinching players from under the noses of other London clubs, usually West Ham, as he had contacts in Essex.

      2. Are you kidding about Auba? He chased all over the park for the ball while Willian did none of there pressing. He had a shot saved by the GK. Scored a wonderful goal. If you see the replay, Tierney’s pass was slightly behind him but he still managed to use his back leg to score. Lot of people think that it was put on a plate but it wasn’t. Also, he should have got the penalty as well. What he doesn’t do well is to be a CF. With Gabby injured he will fit perfectly on the left wing with Laca in the middle.

        It just shows the importance of a great midfield and how important creative players like ESR are to the team. We really need another one like him so that we can have options. Also, all those people berating Arteta should keep in mind the cautionary tale of Gabby and how important it is for young players to be eased back slowly when they come back from injuries. When you are out for a long time injured, it is very easy to get injured again.

        We need all these seniors around. Some people want to sell Auba because we got Gabby playing well in one game. Imagine if Arteta starts listening to all this advice.

        1. The point I made was “on current performances, how does he fit in the side?” In place of Lacazette? Saka? Martinelli?
          Who would you choose to leave out?

          1. Martinelli of course. He should come on as substitute for Auba after 60 mins. He definitely is not ready physically for a 60-90 mins game. But the point is now moot. He is already injured. Besides, with Auba there is always a chance of a goal happening even when he is not involved in the game. Just because he had a run of 6-8 games a manager can’t dump his main striker. That would be a very foolish decision.

    2. ESR has a new song, when we’re finally allowed to sing it.
      “Hey! Ho! Smith-Rowe”
      (apologies to Joey Ramone)

  9. I realise this is a Willian appreciation thread but perhaps we can share some love for Soares? Neither have the pace to get in behind and, as such, both end up going backwards. Add Pepe’s penchant to cut infield and lose possession and we got a proper horror show on the right today.

    1. Kia and Raul should really be made to pay for these deals ( I am working very hard to say this politely and not give vent to the foulest language that instinctively comes to mind )

    2. The right hand side has been a problem for some considerable time. The only solution that seems to help is playing Saka out there. We desperately need a right footed Tierney, apart from anything else. I’ve never been completely convinced with Hector. Word is he is heading back to Barcelona. Holding would look better with a decent right back beside him.

  10. Thanks for the post Tim. I have been away for a while so Happy New Year to you and your family and to everyone associated with the blob.

    Willian has hit the downside of his career arc. It happens to all players at some point. Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez ability to influence faded at an even younger age then Willian.I have to admit I am worried the same thing may be the reason for Auba’s poor start to the season.

    As far as the game yesterday, I think its a bit early after 4 games to be annointing ESR as our savior and the next great thing and an indispensable player. We as fans tend to greatly over react to relatively short runs of form. We were never a relegation level team and have currently hit a run of good form which was certainly due. However, if history repeats itself the way it almost always does the good form will inevitably drop off at some point. Anyone who follows baseball will understand this analogy but we are a .260 hitter who went thru a slump and was hitting .200 for a month and that often is followed by streak when he hits .320 for a while but in the end he is still a .260 hitter. Anyone who has watched Arsenal play for the last 15 years has to realize that we go thru good and bad runs of form every season.

  11. Arteta owns the Willian acquisition. He’s accountable to absentee owners who are probably holding his feet to the fire. It’s a big ask to get him to walk away from the player while his own job is (or at least has recently been) under scrutiny.

  12. arsenal didn’t have to pay a transfer fee for willian. that’s arsenal’s transfer strategy…to seek out as many free transfers as possible. recently, they’ve signed lichtsteiner, kolasinac, mkhitaryan, mari, ceballos, soares, willian, dennis suarez, etc. all without paying a transfer fee. is it ideal? it’s not how i would build a team but, sometimes, you can get lucky. we just have to respect that it’s an arsenal transfer strategy.

    smith-rowe is a talented young player. however, we should pump the brakes on lavishing this kid with too much praise. a blind man could see that arsenal desperately needed a #10. arteta made a big calls dropping mesut. he got it wrong and tried to compensate by playing willian, willock and even lacazette as a #10…they all failed. smith-rowe knows how to play the role and was given the chance. as a result, arsenal look like a team. esr’s inclusion’s probably saved arteta’s job; it looked for all the world that his decision omit mesut (and fail to sign houssem aouar) would cost him his job.

    the real deal is lacazette. after 105 minutes, arsenal could hardly create. bring on lacazette and 5 minutes later, arsenal take the lead. after 15 of 120, arsenal have won 2-0. i don’t recall a moment this season when lacazette has played poorly enough to be dropped so why did arteta decide to not play him? it’s another decision that could have seen him get the sack. while we were all desperate to see auba get a goal, you’ve got to respect the game enough to know what auba, and willian, aren’t capable of.

    1. …i didn’t proofread. on arteta’s decision to drop lacazette, why did arteta decide not to play lacazette at center forward when arsenal were struggling to win games is the question i meant to ask. he played a lot of nketiah and even auba at center forward. laca began the season strong and was dropped for something. i just don’t know what that reason was.

    2. Recent results are encouraging but I’m fully with you that Arteta ‘lucked in’ on the current creativity solution. We’re in a gentle run of games. Come Jan 26th the calibre of opponent picks up. There’s a run of seven harder fixtures which will define our season.

    3. Free transfers are all very well and good, but the downside is that you end up paying a whole lot more in wages. That’s usually why players elect to run down their contracts. The list you give haven’t exactly pulled up any trees for us, have they?

      Arteta wasn’t the first manager to drop Mesut. Emery did.
      “I tried with all my might to help Ozil. Throughout my career, talented players have reached their best level with me. I was always positive, wanting him to play, be involved.

      “In pre-season I told him I wanted to help recover the best Ozil. I wanted a high level of participation and commitment in the dressing room. I respected him and thought he could help.

      “He could have been a captain but the dressing room didn’t want him to be. That’s not what I decided; that’s what the players decided. Captains are ones who have to keep defending the club, the coach, team-mates.”
      Freddie did. “Mesut was injured, but I would not have picked him for the squad because I want to make a stance that it’s not what I accept from an Arsenal football player. That’s my decision.”
      Carlo Ancelotti? “I let Mesut Özil go to Arsenal because he doesn’t have the character for Real Madrid.”

      Joachim Low dropped him.

      Uli Hoeness? World Cup winner for Germany. Bayern Munich director.

      “Ozil has been playing s–t for years. He won his last tackle before the 2014 World Cup.
      “All he is doing on the field is playing cross passes.
      “No one questioned he was playing crap at the World Cup.
      “His 35 million follower boys, who of course do not exist in the real world, all think that he has played excellently if he plays a cross pass.”

      Hoeness went so far as to say Die Roten would prey on Ozil in meetings with Arsenal: “Whenever we played against Arsenal, we played on him because we knew he was the weak point.”

      Aaron Ramsey? “He gets a few extra days off than the rest of us.
      “He’s always in the boss’ [Arsene Wenger] room asking for something or whatever and he seems to get it.”

      Liam Brady from a podcast (verbatim) last month.

      “And I don’t blame Arteta over Ozil. He gave Ozil plenty of chances and he performed for a couple of months. As did a few others who had question marks hanging over them. Luiz looked better. Xhaka looked better.
      “But Ozil just reverted back to type. He’s not a good guy in the dressing room, he’s not a good guy on the pitch. I have no problem with Mikel bombing him, none.”
      “Gazidis should have let him go on a free three years ago and we should have spent what we are paying him over three years, £50m? – that we could have invested in a good young player instead of having him around the place.”

      I can only assume all these people have absolutely no idea what they are talking about.

      Anyway, the rumour is that he is off to DC United.

      “It always appeared that it would take an extraordinary offer from a potential suitor to drag Mesut Ozil away from his £350,000-a-week job keeping fit at the north London health club known as Arsenal FC. And it seems DC United, who gave Wayne Rooney a late career platform to do whatever it was he was still able to do, have made the German wake up and smell the coffee. The MLS side have reportedly offered the German what every creative footballer could ever want: a chance to expand their brand.
      Yes, Özil has been told to overlook the fact that DC United are the second worst eastern conference team and instead focus on what really matters: breaking his 39 Steps Coffee company in the United States. The 32-year-old will apparently be allowed to flog his beans at the club’s Audi Field stadium, a grand if somewhat pointless gesture if fans can’t attend, and will also be given a platform to push his M10 eSports brand by making him the face of the club. This might not be enough, though. They should probably offer to buy Gunnersaurus too. If you’re going to make it big as a mascot, then America’s the place to do it.”

      1. i get everything you’re saying. however, mesut wasn’t my main talking point. it was more about arteta lucking up.

        if willian wasn’t injured, would arteta have ever dropped willian? even with willian injured, arteta chose to play others, including lacazette, in the #10 spot ahead of smith-rowe. was emile injured? i don’t know…i wasn’t paying much attention to him.

        it wasn’t until aubameyang got the calf injury that arteta’s hand was forced. he had to move lacazette from cam back to center forward so someone had to play as a #10. up steps smith-rowe and the rest is history.

        however, there was a lot of luck involved. if auba doesn’t get injured, does lacazette play center forward? does smith-rowe even get a chance? arteta got lucky as three weeks ago, it looked like he was about to get sacked. would he really make the decision to play smith-rowe ahead of everyone else with his job on the line? i’m not sure he would have made those changes if not for injuries. sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. as a new manager, he needs that luck while he’s learning his craft.

      2. How is it that we seem to BOTH overpay transfer fees – Mustafi, Pepe – AND overpay wages longterm like Ozil and Willian? Combine that with failing to sell players and you have the Arsenal recruitment trifecta!

      3. I am sorry about this Mark but context and facts are very important in discussions of players.

        Point 1
        Emery does not have any experience with creative players and usually deploys defensive players in the #10 position. His most used #10 in his career has been Iborra, whom he is still using today. His favourite creative outlets are deep lying playmakers. I respect the man and feel that Mesut didn’t suit Emery’s preferred style of play or system. If Emery said that Mesut was not playing for footballing reasons, I would believe him. Based on his past with Players like Ganso, Hatem and the fact that his sides never used attacking mids, It would be foolish to see his words as nothing more than covering up his failure at Arsenal.

        Words are nice and all, but I don’t care about what is said. I can say I tried to help Theo Walcott be the best he can be, then play him upfront and tell the team to long ball football with high crosses into the box. Its on the pitch where you should judge his comments, the same way that Arteta can tell you that Willian is a good player. The pitch will always reveal the truth.

        Point 2
        Arteta and Freddie have struck me as very conservative coaches who require a certain level of physicality over technical ability. But the biggest thing for them is that, they are both inexperienced coaches who are learning on the job. Mesut is not an easy project for any manager, in the same way that Cantona and Bergkamp were similar. if you want any of these players to fit a certain mould, you will fail to get the best out of them. It takes experience and both Arteta and Freddie showed it in abundance.

        if either does not see any use for Mesut, it is all well and fine. But both showed their inexperience by not trying to learn and instead stomping their authority on the side. Whatever noise can be said about Mesut, he isn’t a tough, influential or powerful guy at the club. Wenger once said, a person can pretend off the pitch, but the true version of you will always show on the football pitch, and Mesut is as an authoritative off the pitch as he is on it. Meaning, he is an easy target for coaches playing power games.

        Point 3
        I don’t recall Low dropping Ozil, unless you want to point to the 2017 confederations cup. But that tournament was Low trying to create depth and left out all of his top players. There was no dropping based on performance or attitude from the national side. Ozil is one of the few players who dropped the national side.

        A similar thing is said of Arsene’s last season, which surprised me because I watched and followed Arsenal and the only player that was dropped by Wenger, between Alexis and Ozil, was Alexis against Liverpool. Outside of that, Wenger had a two team thing going in his last season where he had a Premier league team, which transitioned into the Europa team when we got to the knockout stages.

        Beyond that, I don’t recall Wenger dropping either Ozil or Sanchez. Maybe I don’t know, and if I don’t remind me please.

        Point 4
        Uli Hoeness is a racist prick and any words he has concerning black, Jewish or Muslim player, no human beings, should never be taken on board. that one is a seriously bad example to pick Mark.

        Point 4
        Aaron Ramsey was right about what he said and people have ran with it for many years. But here is something that most people don’t know. Mesut, during Wenger’s time in charge, played the third most minutes in all competitions during that period. That’s including international games as well. Mesut and Sanchez were our best players, and I wish Alexis could have had the calm and patience to also ask for some time off because players suffer mental fatigue as well as physically.

        Mesut got extra time off, because other than Koscielny and Sanchez, they carried the most load in their feet. Kosielny almost permanently lost his ability to walk and Sanchez has lost all his spark mentally. What Ozil did in asking for time off, for someone who is called up for all international games, to the point where he wins the national teams best player for 3 years running and being ever present for Arsenal is a commendable thing. Everyone else asking for time off would be a joke. Ramsey has no full season under his belt and sits home for large parts of each year,its understandable that Mesut is given time off.

        In my opinion, koscielny should have been forced to take breaks. He was evolving really well and would have been like Thiago Silva for us right now.

        Point 5
        Liam Brady is a legend, but has never been a part of the first team coaching set up. If you can explain what “he’s not a good guy on the pitch” means and how it differs or is similar to off the pitch, I would seriously appreciate that. From what I heard, he was just ranting, in the same way as Piers Morgan.

        Its the same rhetoric that spread of Ozil being selfish after declining a pay cut. This, right after he dedicated his wedding to raising funds for charity. He also pays for surgeries for children around the world. I have met some in Cape town, so my eye test says something very different to these rants on Mesut. character should always be judged on actions and not narratives, or you risk opening the door to lazy people who only speak.

        Until I hear players come out and speak of his behaviour being bad, which if you read most interviews with players is not close to that, I will reconsider. Even Emery, Arteta, Mourinho, Low, Ancelotti and Wenger have never hinted at him being a “bad guy” or even a bad influence. but somehow Liam Brady’s words should be taken on board because he is a legend? Slippery slope this one.

        Point 6
        Mesut has his flaws on the football pitch and is not built for most modern tactics. His talents (creativity) might be non-negotiable, but they are not only applied by having someone like him and can applied in numerous other ways. Liverpool use the press to create, City use positional lay control the opposition and then create in the gaps that appear, Spurs use the deep block to draw teams in and then use movement and pace to create openings that can be found by average players, and so on and so forth..

        The only manager I know who was honest in his assessment and didn’t have use for Mesut was Ancelotti. He played a specific system (skewed 433, which shifted into a lopsided 442 in game) and used a certain profile of player (Di Maria provided balance for BBC and needed all his energy to be cover for Ronaldo while Benzema provided cover for Bale). Ancelotti’s Real Madrid had a character such that its easy to see Mesut not fitting into it. in reality, Mesut would have been a hindrance to that side.

        His altercation with Mourinho showed that Mourinho actually likes the type of player that Mesut is, but Ozil’s reaction also showed that for certain managers, he would not be suitable to the team succeeding.

        So Mark, its Okay to say that Mesut does not fit what a certain manger is doing. Trying to do character assassination does nothing but bring your energy down. You do not need to be finding a reason to hate a multi-millionaire footballer, just be logical and focus on what makes sense. Ozil would make this side better, far better than Willian is, but it is time for him to leave, and that’s Okay.

        Just be careful with what you read. All the people above get richer or look better in the public spotlight just for creating controversy or a certain narrative. Be above it and let what happens on the pitch speak loudest.

        1. Thanks for your response to Marks post. It just goes to show how important it is to take note of the context of someone’s comment,s not just the comments.

        2. Devlin, great post.

          Mark confuses dropping a player with deep-sixing a player. Low dropped him from the starting XI after the South Korea debacle, but tried to talk him out of retiring. Low wasnt going to start him (and some of his aging stars like Khedira and Hummels) every game, but he saw Ozil’s utility as a squad player. It’s very different with his treatment at the hands of Arteta, in which he went from starting every game pre-pandemic, to total exclusions from all squads across all 4v competitions post pandemic. Based on Arteta’s “island of safety” banalities, I think that the decision to totally ban Ozil was made above his pay grade. Im stumped by why journalists in particular dont (or dont want to) dig deeper on the obvious logical contradictions in Ozil’s situation. Even as Willian was playing unadulterated garbage, and we wear just above the relegation zone. This is not a case for starting Ozil. It is simply calling BS on the pblicly offered reasons for putting him in footballing jail (albeit a gilded one).

          Some of the rationalisations on Ozil, it seems to me, work backwards from the proposition that the club is right. The rationalisers would not, of course, tolerate being treated similarly in their workplaces, irrespective of the size of their salaries. And it is salary, imo. Mesut refuses to obligingly fall on his sword, to give the club more available funds. But hey, it’s a pyrrhic victory, because he is complicit in destroying his own footballing value. I hope that his sideways slide into clothing merchandising works out for him.

          1. The German issues in that WC were not down to Ozil’s play. He put a number of crosses right on to the heads of attackers. They failed to convert. But politics has pretty much already done him in.
            And the point about Alexis and overplaying is 100% true. I don’t think he declined so much as he ran himself into the ground. He played a huge amount for Chile in trying conditions. That’s what really caused his decline.

        3. Very passionate reply Devlin and going by your previous posts, pretty much expected. But here is the thing, even Wenger said that giving him a big contract was a mistake.

          Ozil simply doesn’t fit Arteta’s style. You are probably right. He is a conservative coach and wants to ensure that his creative players defend equally well. That will not happen with Ozil. Perhaps, after the lockdown upper management told Arteta to drop Ozil. Who knows? It’s all conjecture. Same as lot of people assume that Arteta would not have played ESR if Auba was not injured. Frankly, I find that pretty silly of a coach if he knows that he has a great player in the wings but he wants to just persist with experienced players just out of ego. But perhaps he was just letting ESR improve his fitness away from the limelight and making sure he was ready for first team before throwing him in the deep end. It could be numerous reasons.

          Frankly, I am sick and tired of the Ozil drama. His time with Arsenal is up. I don’t care who said what about him. I don’t care which coach was good or bad to him. I don’t care how many charities he sponsors. I don’t care how many tweets he makes about Chinese Uighurs while having The Turkish president as his best man (the same president whose army has killed countless Kurds). I don’t care about his brand.

          All I care about his performance on the pitch as part of THIS Arsenal team who has THIS manager. Frankly, that performance was bang average. If the manager doesn’t want him, that is his decision. He will have to live by it or get an axe if it doesn’t work out. Maybe Arteta got lucky. So what? He deserves it. When he was winning FA cup and community shield, were we complaining about his conservative style? No! We were gleefully bashing City, Liverpool and Chelsea fans. If his team wins all their rest of the league games 1-0, will we complain about how much instructions he gives in the sideline or how boring the football was? No. We won’t. No matter how boring football we end up playing through out the season, If we win Europa league or reach top 4, all of us will gleefully dance on the streets. So let’s bury the Ozil debate and move on.

  13. i’m surprised more aren’t talking up leno’s fabulous save at the end of regulation. if he doesn’t make that save, arsenal are out of the fa cup

    …and i don’t think anyone has mentioned that deft aerial redirect from lacazette for smith-rowe’s goal; that header was very giroud-esqe.

  14. I agree with Josh about pumping the brakes on the ESR hype. Perhaps time will prove that he is the chosen one but we can’t make that determination after 4 games

    The thing everyone seems to be ignoring is one of the biggest reasons we have won 4 in a row is the team defense returning to solidity and not conceding. We only scored 1 against Brighton and we didn’t score for 106 minutes yesterday. Without the clean sheets our current 4 game run does not look that good.

  15. During the last years of the Wenger era we regularly watched Arsenal teams go from a team that was playing the best football in the league and sometimes competing for first place to a team that was struggling to hold on to the top 4 or vice versa with the same players and the same tactics. In the end they were a team who competed and usually held on to the top 4 with a lot more talent then the group we have now. A team like the current group does not go from being in a real relegation fight to a team that suddenly has the talent to compete for the top 4 and the manager does not go from tactically inept and deserving to be sacked to smart all in about 2 weeks.

  16. If the motivation was sunk cost, why is Pepe on the bench and why is Ozil out of the squad?

    Arteta doesn’t play him because we spent money on him, he plays him because he does something, or has the potential to do something, that Arteta values.

    Maybe he shouldn’t start at the moment over ESR, that’s fine and I would agree, he’s obviously struggling in his role in this team, but it’s got nothing to do with sunk cost, and he’s not lazy.

  17. When Willian and Ozil were playing well, they had the burst to beat players 1v1. To create separation. All the skill in the world without the ability to create space won’t save you in the PL. Athletic talent is table stakes in this league. Strength, speed or preferably both are required to succeed. They have neither.

  18. I will be an outlier here regarding Willian. People seem to think that just because he has been in EPL for a long time, he should immediately hit the ground running. A defender or a GK adapts muchh faster to a new team compared to a midfielder or a forward. This is not my opinion. It’s what the holy seer Wenger once said.

    The player has been in a team which has a different system, loads of creative players, a top rated DM around him. From such an environment, he came to a team still trying to find its identity. The creative players which surrounded him have been replaced by untested youngsters, a mediocre mid field and a rookie manager who still doesn’t know how to use his best players. No matter how skilful you are, when you are mid career in any profession, it is much harder to adapt to new job compared to when you are maybe 21 and starting a new job. Imagine, if you were to change your employer when you are in late forties or early fifties (for a footballer 30s are pretty much like late 40s). Same role, same skill sets but a new culture. HR has different rules, your boss has some crazy schedule, your co workers are younger and hungrier than you. They work 16 hours a day while you clock out at 6. Maybe at your old place that was fine, but now the management team frowns at your early departures. So suddenly, you start feeling insecure. You know you are good but you feel like an outsider.

    So I hope people think about this before piling on the hate on Willian. Just because he earns a lot of money in his profession doesn’t mean it gives us right to pile on cr** on him. Imagine if someone told 1-nil everyday at his work that he is the worst musician ever. I hope we think about that before we turn ourselves into the worst reflection of ourselves here.

    1. I’d disagree on a number of fronts. First, defenders need to work together even more than attackers. If you’re not on the same page relative to stepping up for offsides trap, or switching on and off attacking players, the results will be immediately poor.
      Second, it’s not just about fitting in. Willian’s skills don’t seem to be where they were.
      Third, it’s about drive. If you’re trying to fit in to your new team and contribute positively, you don’t go flitting off to Dubai to have steaks with you best social media buddy, the SaltBAE.

      Sorry, I’m not inclined to give him any slack, or the management team any slack for signing him.

      1. Sure, that’s your right. But I don’t believe that the skill level can drop so drastically within few months. Unless, this was always his level and he just happened to look better because he was surrounded by better players at Chelsea. Somewhat like Hleb who disappeared once he got sold by Arsenal. I hope it is not case with Willian and that he will get better as he fully gets settled with Arsenal’s rhythm. Otherwise, it will be 3 painful years for us.

        Reg : Dubai. Yes, he should be disciplined for it but as we see he has not been the only one amongst footballers now. Nevertheless, that incident has soured fans perception of him and he will just have to work extra hard to win us back. At the end of the day, if he helps us achieve top 4 this season, we will not be thinking of Dubai flights much.

      2. Also, another point I would like to make is that when you have played for a team for number of years, your passing becomes instinctive. You know where your team mates are without thinking.

        When Willian first started the games, you could see that there were lot of misplaced forward passes, but slowly he became more conservative and the passing became more sideways as he didn’t want to lose the ball for the team. It is natural as you don’t want to be the reason opposition scores against your team. I feel that lack of understanding with his teammates is something which will only get better over time. That’s when he will fell more confident with his forward passing.

    2. I was going to defend Willian as well with a bit of balance on a quality, experienced, title-winning player who’s been widely lauded for years as the ultimate pro, now playing in a new role in a new system at a new club for a new manager surrounded by inexperienced, unreliable or underperforming team mates in the middle of a pandemic… but honestly what’s the point? Apparently after a dozen games he’s the worst transfer in over 20 years, the worst Brazilian player in Europe, lazy and inept, can’t run, can’t pass (except backwards), and we only hired him because of backhanders between Edu and his corrupt, greedy agent who is trying to take over the club by stealth.

      When people make up their minds they really make up their minds.

Comments are closed.

Related articles