Oh boy.. I just looked at the stats and like they say in Star Wars.. “I’ve got a bad feeling about this.”
They have drawn their last three matches – West Ham, Sheffield United, and Fulham – so you might be tempted to think that this side are there for the taking but when I look at how they played against Man U (L), Chelsea (L), Villa (W), Liverpool (D), and Southampton (L) I think there’s a very good chance that they will beat us.
Ok, overall they are +5.8 according to xGD. But even I know that can be deceptive because sometimes a team will pileon a lot of xG after they are already in a losing position or by taking a lot of really bad shots. My xG model tries to account for the latter but not the former. And we also know now that there are just some players who overperform xG. These are players that we call “really good” and there are some players who don’t overperform xG and these we call “bang average”. For example, Olivier Giroud is “really good” at headers – since 2014 his combined xG is 53 and actual goals scored is 62, but 16 of that xG is on headers where he has scored 24 times (+8).
Understanding that xG isn’t perfect I like to look at how well a team are doing at creating/conceding good chances. In their 3-2 loss to Man U, for example, they scored an own goal (right after getting a penalty) and then Man U took the lead in the 54th minute. They struggled a bit until Potter brought on Gross and Jahanbakhsh. Then they created four big chances, finally scoring in the 94th minute. They were gutted to then concede a penalty in the 99th minute when Maupay handled the ball in the box.
Against Liverpool the managed a 1-1 draw but they held the Title Holders to just 0.28 xG, conceding on a shot with a nominal value of 0.08 and then missing a penalty (they scored a pen too) and missing a 30% chance early on.
This pattern seems to repeat against Villa and Southampton. And these are some wild matches as well. Brighton have only played 15 matches so far this season but they have won 5 pens and conceded 5 pens. They have also had three red cards this season, though all of them in the 89th minute or later.
When I look at non-penalty xG they (17) are slightly above Arsenal (15) and similar in terms of xA (13 v. 11).
They really like crosses in the penalty area, they are 3rd in the League in that stat. They also like long passes, trying 111 per contest (2nd) and connecting on 67. This is very close to the style of play that Frank Lampard likes at Chelsea. If you remember the end of that match, they were crossing the ball a lot (the most Arsenal have faced in the League this season) and I expect Brighton to play the same way.
I don’t know if this is going to be a high pressure match. Neither of these teams are known for pressing this season (Arsenal attempt the fewest pressures of any team in the League and Brighton the 6th fewest). Both teams do apply pressure in the opposition final third averaging 27.9 per90.
So far this season, Brighton have also been press resistant, conceding possession on just 26% of their opponent’s pressures. That’s the best rate in the League – again, they are well organized, I think. Arsenal, oddly, are 4th best in the league at just under 27%. So, again, I’m not sure this will be a match in which Arsenal look to press even though BHA like to build from the back (4th in the League in touches in their own third) and AFC like to press high. In fact, both teams play that similar style.
A few interesting defensive wrinkles: BHA don’t tackle a lot (17 per game, 10th) but they win an extraordinary high number of tackles (11 per game, 4th). They are similarly oddly efficient at pressing, winning 33% of their pressures – that’s tied for best in the League with Liverpool. That shows me a team that is very well organized in defense and who coordinate their pressures. As much as we all love seeing Martinelli haring around and pressing defenders, Arsenal’s press isn’t very coordinated and as a result we win the fewest pressure regains per game (31.7).
Tough one to call in terms of style. Will both teams pressure when the opponent tries to play out the back? I do know that they can’t be taken lightly and that they will get chances. If you’re expecting an easy three points, you may want to adjust those expectations down a notch.
Agree with what you say Tim and expect a certain Danny boy to knock 1 in against his old team..oh an btw Derek? Who or what? Have a great day
I read your short story and I have no idea what the metaphor is. Sorry!
Not a metaphor Tim Derek is/was in fact a matchstick… I’ll get my coat 😂
This, from Andrew Allen today, is also sobering:
“Since beating them [BHA] 2-0 at the Emirates in October 2017 – the goals scored by Nacho Monreal and Alex Iwobi – we’ve gone five games without a win against the Seagulls. They’ve won 2-1 on three occasions and the other two games were drawn 1-1. It’s a run that spans four Arsenal managers!”
I’m expecting another tough game.
yeah
I am also quite nervous about this game. But, considering my mood before matches in the recent past was one of sad resignation, I’ll take it!
Potter is an impressive coach, and until Maupay clearly and intentionally went after and injured Leno, I had a bit of a soft spot for them. I think they will cause us serious problems.
Will be very interesting to see what Arteta does with the starting lineup. It feels like a few players are on the precipice with minutes and injuries, namely Saka and Tierney, but they are so important to what the team does. I hear so many people saying that Pepe is done at the club, which seems rash, but this also seems like the type of game he does not thrive in.
Whatever, I’ll take nerves and uncertainty!
Same team as cfc with 1 change abua for laca..cummon u cooners.. please
Great post Tim.
As you know I am skeptical of the true predictive value of some of the stats, however, they are certainly interesting to talk about.
Another win and I think we can safely say that relegation is no longer a concern. Our team defense had a hiccup for several games but it looks to have regained the necessary stability and if we can keep a lot of clean sheets it will make winning much easier. I know we were excited by scoring 3 against Chelsea but finding players not named Auba who will score goals with any regularity is not likely. Laca is obviously our second best scorer and he can certainly help. We need Auba back on track and hopefully find a way to get both Auba and Laca working together at the same time. Otherwise we are going to have to win a lot more 1-0 games
most of the stats – I’d say 99% of them – have very little to no correlation to points on the board. They are what I like to call “storytelling stats”: that is to say that they can be used to help describe how a team likes to play.
Tim.
Fair enough. One of my concerns regarding the stats is how and who actually makes the decision on what is a chance created, key pass, a pressure etc etc. Making those determinations feels much more subjective in European football compared with the other sports I follow. A really high percentage of calls and stats in European football seem as subjective and debatable as pass interference in American football.
bill, you seem to only want to talk about stats and that’s troublesome. i said this before but it’s like you don’t watch the game…rather check the stat sheet to see what was the score, who scored, number of shots, possession percentage, red cards, etc.
bottom line, stats aren’t really important; they are a supporting element that, not always but sometimes, helps us better understand the game we witness. while they are often used for pre-game planning or post-match analysis, they don’t determine anything. like i said, sometimes stats don’t even tell the story accurately.
you often use stats to make an argument but, like i said, they simply don’t matter. they’re only there for support.
Josh
Goals scored and goals conceded are stats which do matter because they directly determine the teams results. I agree the other stats are supporting elements
Dunno that this comment deserves to pilloried this much, but here’s the thing, Bill… There is no such thing as 100% accuracy in statistics. So yes, evaluation of a particular action may be subjective, but how far are the stats people going to vary on what a “ball recovery” is? Not much. So the work of the professional stats people comes with a high degree of credibility.
You said:
A really high percentage of calls and stats in European football seem as subjective and debatable as pass interference in American football.
Yes, some are (that’s the beauty of sport) but what is “a really high percentage?”
You’re guessing, bud. Guessing to back up an unsupported hunch.
Oh, btw, sports bodies evaluate these metrics, and they regularly find them to be high percentage correct.
When I first started seeing your stats I wondered how useful they might be for a sport like football and I like your statement here, especially about storytelling.
I recall a game where OG was credited with a big chance against Man Utd – you may remember it, he was on the ground with Jones, they were both crawling like snails and with a massive effort, OG just managed to make contact – so it was right in front of goal but there was no chance of him scoring; Bill’s point about subjectivity is very valid.
So I take all xG stats with a massive pinch of salt – in a low scoring activity, the chances of a low % chance winning a game are disproportionately high – or like yesterday, one great move by Saka coming off rather than the good chances from Martinelli & Auba.
Personally, I think people pay too much attention to stats in football.
They have their place, but it’s all new and evolving so naturally that place is not quite clear. I don’t think the tools are there to support using that as a sole tool for evaluation or recruitment. But it certainly helps to have some objective measure of what happens in a game and the tools will keep getting better. The human element is and will remain the greatest determinant of success in football as it is elsewhere: the drive to improve, the will to put in the hours, the humility to keep on learning for a lifetime. That’s what elevates talent and athleticism to sustained excellence.
Was on a work call, so wasn’t able to watch. Sounds like the 2nd half performance was decent, and I’ll take the 1-0 win given recent results this season and recently against Brighton.
Hopefully this continues to be a platform we can build on, and Saka, ESR and Martinelli can stay healthy. We get Partey back in for one of Xhaka or Elneny and we should be in decent shape.
Plus Big Sam got blown out today after his remarks about Arsenal and relegation. Hopefully we can repeat that blowout on the 2nd.
What’s my name?!!
Another terrible 1st half but can’t argue with our 2nd successive 3 points. We lacked confidence going forward until after half time but Saka combining with Lacazette was emphatic.
Saka has become essential, an undroppable 19-year old in the first team. And I had no idea who this Yves Bissouma dude for Brighton was before this match but that was an incredible display by a CM. Who wouldn’t want that guy?
Top 4 here we come! (Hey, it’s almost New Year and a guy can dream).
bissouma is a good player…a big unit who plays very physical. with that, he gets a ton of yellows. i got hip to him last season when they beat arsenal.
rumor has man united linked with him a few weeks ago. if brighton go down, he won’t go with them.
Thanks for the heads up. Gonna keep an eye on him. IMO, Arsenal needs more but smarter yellows. Get stuck in boys!
Seems overall similar to Partey. Central midfield can be difficult to translate from a team that plays a disciplined, reactive style to one that wants to play a progressive, proactive style. He has the physical tools to be a stopper but what about ball progression, availability, vision, two footed technique? I’d say those are the key factors i would be looking to add to our midfield.
Very odd to see people jumping on the Bissouma bandwagon. We didn’t press at all and we are the worst tackling team in the League.
His creative stats are very low, his progressive passing low, he makes those “oops” passes out of play a lot, his SCA90 is an atrocious 1.69, his progressive carries are poor, and his defensive stats aren’t even really great.
The Bissouma thing only proves to me that our MFers are so bad that we make mediocre players look good.
i don’t think there’s a bissouma bandwagon. it’s just some folks appreciate what he does and how effective he is; everyone isn’t going to be a ball-progression stat stuffer.
you need role players that can do the dirty work required to win. his standout qualities seem to be that he disrupts a lot of attacks with his physical qualities and intelligent positioning.
in the few games i’ve seen him, i’d say he’s nowhere near as talented as partey, song, or coquelin but he is good at what he does for brighton’s strategy. many teams fancy a simple yet effective player that can disrupt attacks, win the ball, and simply give it to the playmakers…the way makalele did for real madrid. it all depends on what you’re looking for when building a team.
lol.. you’re the Bissouma band leader on here.
this club absolutely needs progressive midfielders. and yes, every player can and should be progressive.
we don’t need Bissouma.
also, he’s 24, which is way past your age limit for greatness.
…bissouma band leader? what are you talking about, tim? i don’t recall ever mentioning bissouma on this forum before replying to 1nil yesterday, let alone being some “band leader”. i certainly don’t remember saying anything about him playing for arsenal. as for bissouma being 24, i don’t know how that’s relevant. however, it could go back to our disagreement the other day about joe willock.
my consistent point about joe willock is that he’s currently not good enough to be anywhere near the arsenal first team, regardless of his age. i never said he shouldn’t be an arsenal player or that he should be sold or that he’ll never make it. neither have i implied anything of those things. yes, i did compare him to some of his predecessors, many of whom were younger than him and it was plain to see that they were special compared to willock. i even think his brother who went to portugal is better than him.
you don’t agree with me about willock and that’s cool. but it’s pretty lame to make false points and argue them as if those points were mine.
First, let’s not use ableist language like ‘lame’. I think you’ve been around here long enough to know that I broke my back in a car accident in 1989 and suffered with metal rods in my back since. I also recently had to give up football because of degenerative disk as a result of my accident. Thanks.
As for the Willock thing, you’re just intellectually dishonest: the only reason you mention Willock’s age is because you just don’t like him, which is fair, but you then went on to pretend that there was some magical age cutoff.
“we saw a 19-year old vieira, 19-year old diaby, 18-year old ox, 18-year old denilson, 17-year old wilshere, 16-year old fabregas, etc. getting first team minutes because their quality was undeniable as teenagers. what qualities have you seen in joe willock, who’s now 21-years old, that suggests he’s worthy of premier league minutes for arsenal? he shouldn’t even be on the bench.”
Who’s now 21 years old.. what did you mean by that if not that he was past the age where he would be good enough? Is it just some random thing you say? “Honey, we need milk – who’s now 21-years old – and eggs!”
I think the difference between Makalele and Bissouma from a purely defensive sense is that Makalele relied on timing, anticipation and quickness and could dispossess without fouling. That’s an undervalued but hugely important trait in any defender, and I’m not sure Bissouma has it.
the main difference is that Makelele was an insanely good footballer first; he wasn’t just a battler. His close control was Cazorla-good and when he moved he was always looking up. I doubt he’d even have been a DM if he’d come of age in this decade.
Wenger talks about this a bit in The Tuesday Club podcast (min 32 – 34) when discussing Vieira loved the interview here is the link https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hdWRpb2Jvb20uY29tL2NoYW5uZWxzLzUwMjM3MzIucnNz/episode/dGFnOmF1ZGlvYm9vbS5jb20sMjAyMC0xMS0xMjovcG9zdHMvNzcyODY1NQ?sa=X&ved=0CA0QkfYCahcKEwjQ_8iTyvbtAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ
you might be right. i don’t know enough about bissouma’s game. i only mentioned that because someone noted his lack of progressive play. makalele was, apparently, sold to chelsea because he lacked progressive play and there were supposed players in the real madrid academy that would make fans forget all about him. well, we all know how that story went. makalele was an incredibly intelligent player but i have no idea how smart bissouma is.
Makelele was Chelsea’s heart and engine and widely considered one of the most underrated deep lying playmakers in the League.
Only 12 points behind Liverpool, the chase is on
I’m renaming him… Bukayo Overmars.
Bukayo Saka is an absolute treasure. We’re lucky to have him.
Arteta may find the way back after all. He’s bought some time with the 2 wins and now might get a player in the January window to help with attack. We might even unload a player or 2. With the upcoming fixtures smiling on us, Partey and Gabriel returning, and the kids coming into form, 2021 has a glimmer of hope for all Gooners. A new president here and vaccines rolling out. If my mother weren’t in the hospital here in the world’s Covid epicenter, I might be smiling ear to ear. Happy New Year to my 7AM friends, and my undying admiration and gratitude for you and your writing Tim.
Tim, I like the new forum format but the page keeps refreshing when I am in the middle of a comment and I cannot get it back. Is this a feature or a bug?
probably a bug, try a different browser. also if you use adblockers you can turn them off on my site: no ads
Saka has been really good. Vast majority of the positive attacking moves we have been able to create for the last couple of seasons have come from wide positions. A lot of people have questioned Arteta and Emery’s tactics because they seem to focus on building the attack from wide positions rather then from central midfield. However if you watch what’s happened it seems pretty clear that focusing our attack from those wide positions is the best option we have.
bill, i don’t know that we’re clear a relegation fight. however, the six points certainly help. one point that i hope is clear to arteta is who the better arsenal center forward is. i believe aubameyang is a more talented player but lacazette is the better center forward. his movement in the chelsea game was top notch. he posted up both center backs, dropped into space between the lines, behind the midfield, away from kante, turned in the half-spaces, switched the point, did layoffs to elneny, made space for esr, etc. he was clever and that trade craft created problems for chelsea all game long. i don’t know why he was ever dropped. i hope the team continues with lacazette at center forward. we’ll see.
…and has anyone noticed that hector is also wearing his shirt tucked in? hey, whatever works.
I had noticed. Between that, his black boots, and his new haircut and mustache, he’s turning himself into an Edwardian footballing figure the likes of which Arsenal Gent used to sketch. I miss Arsenal Gent’s column.
Well, if you’re looking for a Bellerin cartoon fix, the final Squires cartoon of 2020 has a panel of Lego Arteta gaping at a mustachioed Bellerin committing yet another foul throw.
Not sure everyone’s thoughts on the Isco rumor. For me, as much as I dislike the idea of being a rehab destination (even from a club as illustrious as Real Madrid), I could make my peace with it. Ideally, you want to do your business in the summer (more availability and more time to negotiate), and I’m sure the pandemic means we’re short on cash for a big transfer, so a loan deal for a creative / attacking midfielder makes sense. He’s currently better than any other player we have at the club who can play that role centrally. No?
Unbelievably talented dribbler in his prime. He’s been dropped at Real Madrid because he’s out of shape, doesn’t train hard, and has an attitude problem. So, the perfect signing then!
For me, the only issue would be if he took even a single minute away from ESR/Saka (he mostly operates on the left) it would be a failure.
There’s another problem as well, which is the same one I had with the Ceballos signing: why should we be paying money to help Real Madrid make their players worth more money?
Josh
I don’t think there was ever a realistic chance of us being in a season long relegation battle.
You may be correct that Laca has all around better CF skill set then Auba. However we really need Auba to score goals. Auba and Laca. The only 4 players on the entire squad who have scored more then 10 PL goals in their entire careers are Auba, Laca, Luiz and Willian. Auba and Laca are the only 2 players in the squad who are a true threat to score in any game. Realistically for us to succeed the rest of this season I think we need Auba to rediscover his shooting boots and we need both Auba and Laca in the lineup whenever possible. The alternative is to play a whole lot of 1-0 games and hope we win the vast majority of those games.
of course, arsenal need their main goal scorer scoring. any team who loses that are probably going to struggle. however, arteta shouldn’t lay that goal burden exclusively at aubameyang’s feet. he has to get some other guys contributing more significantly on the score sheet.
I don’t think it’s the shooting boots Bill, I think it’s chance creation. Auba doesn’t make his own chances, especially when teams can key in on him. The team needs to provide him with opportunities. If anything Arsenal have over performed on conversion of the few chances they made prior to this recent incredible barren run. More shots for Auba! That should be our slogan.
Josh
Most problems have multifactorial cause and I fully agree that we need more creativity but the single biggest reason we have been struggling to score this season is we don’t have any other legitimate options to lay the scoring burden on if Auba is misfiring. We have seen that for the last 2 years and its even more apparent this season. I am not suggesting that managers don’t matter but goals don’t just happen without someone to score them. I don’t think there is a system or a tactical strategy which can take a squad of players who have never scored PL goals in their entire careers and turn them into a team which is going to score enough to compete with good PL teams on a consistent basis.
I don’t think there is a system or a tactical strategy which can take a squad of players who have never scored PL goals in their entire careers and turn them into a team which is going to score enough to compete with good PL teams on a consistent basis.
The bold//underline is mine. It is out of this world false.
Josh and I have both shown you many times that the assertion that we dont have other players who can score goals simply isn’t true. Besides Aubameyang; Pepe, Saka, Lacazette, Wiilian etc have goalscoring records. They dont have Lewandowski numbers, but it is still true. We have players such as Gabriel and Luiz with set piece scoring prowess. If we get the Switzerland Xhaka on even a semi-consistent basis, we will get dead ball goals. I did a response to a comment by Greg, showing that pound for pound, we have a better frontline aggregate than we did 4 years ago.
I’ll give you this, as a positive… you can certainly flog a horse.
Dr. Gooner
we have been complaining about a lack of creativity and chance creation for the last 2 years and yet Auba has been a golden boot level scorer during that time. He always found ways to score in those 2 years. I don’t know what it is but something has changed for him this year
I spoke about it before: like all strikers he thrives on big chances. Last season 15 of his 20 non-penalty goals were from Big Chances and he missed 10 more for a total of 25 big chances. He’s had two this season. His shots are also down in general to just 2 per game. I’ve been telling you that we just aren’t creating those big chances like we need to be doing.
Big chances are down per game
2020/21 – 1.5
2019/20 – 1.7
2018/19 – 2.1
2017/18 – 2.5
Also, most of the big chances we have created this season have gone to Laca and Saka and they have missed 9 combined (Laca 5, Saka 4)
It is clear that the number of chances that a player like Auba has dictates as to how many he scores.
The amount of shots that we are creating is miserable, so we cannot blame Auba or any of the strikers for that.
The decision to exile Ozil is the main cause for this problem, and yet the club, who made that ridiculous decision have done nothing to remedy it.
Perhaps Willian was brought in to be the creative hub, and yet, he is incapable of delivering that, either because of his own shortcomings or because of the way Arteta dictates he should play, or a combination of them both.
In the meantime, we managed 1 shot in the first half against Brighton, a team that has won once at home in 2020, against us, and who dropped all of their strikers.
The “Chel$ski” bounce was clearly over very quickly.
If the fans continue to think that ESR and Martinelli will answer all of the problems and that all we need is to sign an attacking midfielder in the next month, no doubt another reject from a top team, then Arteta can breathe a sigh of relief and continue in his merry way, destroying our club before our very eyes.
Let us be realistic and view what is going on with open eyes.