Football is about to return and that means a trip to 14th place Manchester City and what will obviously be a very easy win for The Arsenal.
Obviously.
Good morning. I woke up at 2am and couldn’t get back to sleep. So, I chucked on a podcast to try to quiet my brain and.. well.. it didn’t work.
It was the Totally Football Show interview with Arsene Wenger. He’s really made the rounds now and frankly I’ve had my fill of bucolic Alsacian roots and anodyne football stories. I’m not saying that I dislike Wenger, I love him and when he does get to talk a little bit about his philosophy of football he shines. But too often these interviews are about Mars bars and Invincibles and he almost never does the one thing I really want him to do: spill the damn beans.
Like I want him to go full on Lumpy Space Princess, “mah beans!” and tell us what happened with Fabregas and van Persie. Tell us why he only bought Cech in 2015 and so many other stories. But from what I gather (reading Nick Hornby’s review) the book will not be the tell-all he has promised us for so many years.
“He’s too classy for that” comes the usual reply when I complain and I get the idea behind that but there are ways for people to be honest, to have integrity, tell the truth, and expose the dirty secrets. So far, Wenger has very dutifully avoided any of that. Preferring to leave fans with a sense of mystery over much of what happened from about 2006 to 2018 – at least that’s what I’ve seen in the reviews of his book and heard in most of the interviews.
Occasionally something will slip out. For example, in the TFS today when asked about throw-ins he said:
“When I practiced in training, I didn’t play throw-ins with hands because when you look at the time wasted on throw-ins it’s unbelievable. It’s supposed to be an advantage for the team who get the throw-in but at the end of the day you’re 9 against 10 on the pitch and the guy has to use his hands to throw the ball in. And it’s the only time you can use your hands as a football player. And only because you stand outside the field. That was maybe at that time, yes; today people want it be quick, short, and more spectacular.”
That’s kind of an incredible quote. This is a manager admitting that his team didn’t practice throw-ins. We live in an era where every detail is practiced, every component is coached and analyzed in order to maximize marginal gains: Liverpool hired a throw-in coach; Stoke City clearly practiced long-throws; and watching Arsenal over the last few years you can really see how bad we were at throw-ins. We still are! Bellerin had two turnovers for foul throw-ins last week and his response was “this is how I’ve always taken them.”
I understand his logic but I literally can’t believe he didn’t practice throw-ins. I guess I can believe it, since I lived through watching this team be really bad at throw-ins for the last 12 years. And also at the same time while I’m angry I have to admit that his methods mostly worked: he kept Arsenal in the top four for 18 years and did so for a decade when the pressure was immense. And no matter how much some folks want to say that he lost it at the end of his tenure his last Arsenal side were better to watch than most of the stuff we’ve seen in the years since he left.
Ok, that’s the past and Wenger says he doesn’t like looking back at the past. In the future we have a football match and Arteta gave his press conference today and said much about that match, so let’s dive in.
The turnaround from internationals this week is extremely tight. England lost to Denmark last night and that means that Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Bukayo Saka won’t even be back with the squad until today. Neither player featured in that loss but that doesn’t mean that they won’t have been training hard during the internationals. So, we will have to see what lingering effects this late re-entry to the team will have on them.
Arteta did say that Tierney could play this weekend which is a surprise because he was exposed to COVID just a few days ago. But this just highlights the various rules and regulations around this virus and how people receive different treatment. I suppose if he tests negative I wouldn’t have a problem with him playing? I don’t know anymore.
Arteta also spoke quite a bit about squad size and inclusion of certain players. As you know, the squad has too many foreign players and several will need to be dropped when the official rosters are announced on October 20th. When asked if he was going to drop Ozil, Arteta was slightly coy but also did say that it’s his responsibility to “feed” all the players in his team:
“I think you have to try and find a way to feed every player with their own qualities and this is our job. And obviously our responsibility with all the players we have to manage.”
(Transcript of the entire press conference is available on Arsenal.com: https://www.arsenal.com/news/arteta-city-project-big-picture-nketiah)
Young players like Saliba and Nketiah (who is also homegrown) don’t count against the limit, so they will be included but the manager does need to exclude some of the non-homegrown players and there are a lot of signs that suggest Ozil will be the one axed. We will know for sure on the 20th.
We know for sure that Thomas will be included – by the way, this blog has a convention that you may or may not have noticed and that is that in almost all cases I try to call the player by the name on the back of the shirt, so if you’re expecting me to call him Partey all the time I’m sorry to disappoint – but whether he will make the starting lineup for Arsenal this weekend is uncertain and Arteta refused to tip his hand when asked.
Personally I would be surprised. Playing a new signing against the most expensive team in the League, who will press him mercilessly, is a hell of a baptism by fire.
That does, however, raise the question for me of what I see as the Arsenal formation this weekend. To answer that, let’s first go with my ideal formation:
Leno
Bellerin David Luiz Gabriel Tierney
Thomas Xhaka
Ceballos
Pepe Aubameyang Saka
Some controversial choices in there for sure. I’ve heard that folks (big accounts) are now slating Pepe and calling him a flop. And while it is worrying that Arsenal bought a 32 year old and started him in Pepe’s spot (especially in games where we were counter attacking), I’ve still got time for the Ivorian.
The other controversial choice is Ceballos in the hole. Yep, I’m the only one still beating this dead horse. I will keep beating it. I will never stop. Not until Arteta starts Willian there too.
But the biggest problem with my ideal formation is that it’s probably 4 months out still. Arteta hasn’t even had one session with Thomas in the midfield. I doubt we will see this any time soon.
That means that this weekend we will probably see a return to the good ole 343:
Leno
Holding David Luiz Gabriel
Bellerin Ceballos Xhaka Tierney (AMN)
Willian Lacazette Aubameyang
It’s not the sexiest lineup but it’s one we have at least practiced with. And as much as folks love to hate Lacazette he has scored in each of his first three matches this season and has an impressive record against top clubs: he has scored or assisted 14 times in 12 League matches against Liverpool (3 goals, 2 assists), Tottenham (3 goals, 2 assists), Man U (1 goal, 2 assists), and Man City (1 goal in 1 match).
On Thomas watch, we could see Thomas introduced sometime after the 60th minute. Perhaps as a shift in formation to a 433 with maybe Willian in the hole. That might be a good introduction.
Anyway, that’s way too much for the day and I have quite a lot to get to today so I will sign off. Maybe more tomorrow.
If Wenger trained his players with the idea that throw-ins are a disadvantage to the team throwing in, then Bellerin’s foul throws should be seen less as a mistake and more as a “cunning plan”…
I laughed to loudly to this.
“Partey all the time ”
===
Heh
The knock against throw-ins is their imprecision. Hands up anyone who has ever seen a throw-in taken from exactly where the ball went out. American football is very, very precise with its placements; soccer not so much. And the less of a “gentleman’s” game it becomes, the more players will cheat (yes, stealing yards is cheating).
The wide player takes the throw in (Bellerin, Tierney etc) to more easily rejoin the play in position, but I watch Hector closely… he routinely gifts about half his throw-ins to the opposition, precisely because they turn it to their advantage. Throw-ins near the corner flag in your own half are especially disadvantageous. In basketball, there’s boxing out to avoid giving the team that misses a free throw the unfair advantage of a rebound and two easy points. Perhaps football needs an innovation/rule change like that? The spray-markings for free kicks are a simple remedy that went some way towards controlling unfair encroachment. Any bright ideas for throw ins?
Our formation this coming game? Tim Stillman made an intriguing argument for starting Auba through the middle. The analysis showed that even when he doesn’t score, his movement bamboozles defenders and drags them all over the place, and that creates openings for others. Pepe’s goal iin the last game stemmed from Auba dragging the defenders around, Stillman showed. Very interesting read. Laca has made a good start to this season, but I wont lose any sleep over his omission from the starting XI. At this stage we can say that he’s clearly not the guy we thought we were getting from Lyon.
Looking forward not only to seeing Partey, but to watching closely how his play influences Xhaka’s.
How’s about a second line, a set distance from the touch line and running the length of the pitch. Players from the team defending a throw-in are not allowed between the touchline and the second line (throw-inline?) until the ball’s been played by a player other than the one throwing it in. Little bit of territorial advantage and a split second to think before being engaged, but doesn’t rule out the long throws either.
It seemed like they were playing 4231 for about 30 minutes of the last game. Willian at 10, Pepe right, Saka left. Worked well too.
I think theres a decent chance we go 4231 with Partey at the base of midfield at some point against City, if not from the start.
Agree re Willian on the right – if he’s going to take away minutes from Pepe and Nelson, the signing is a clear net negative whatever his positives. Backup number 10 should be about it.
When it comes to Pepe, I am 100% with you Tim. I just think that Arteta isn’t the coach to get the most out of him. I think the only reason Willian plays over Pepe is that Willian can play to instructions. From everything that I have seen from Mikel’s team is that the formation isnt that relevant, the shape in particular moments is more important. Unpredictability and individuality don’t have a place in his side. Mikel is in control of everything done on the pitch and if you can’t follow instructions and match the intensity required, he will not (or doesnt know how to) play you.
Pepe is a special player who has that Robben thing about him. In his first season at Arsenal, he arrived from a team that played predominantly on the counter and without a pre-season. He had a short pre-season because he was at the Afcon and arrived late. He does not know how to speak the language, it’s a different culture and his first coach did not really have a style of play for him to adjust to. He had 3 different coaches in his first season and still came out with 8 goals and 10 assists in a team that only had Auba contributing more.
I hope Mikel will be able to use him, but I have a feeling that Pepe, Nelson and sadly Martinelli will not thrive under a manager who hasn’t shown an ability to give players freedom. That might sound easy, but when you have a clear way of playing in your mind that you fully believe in, you can sometimes sacrifice a special player for the system, not knowing that those players could actually improve your vision of football. In the same way that Phillip Lahm changed the role of a fullback for Pep, because he wasn’t as adventurous as Alves but was able to drift inwards to the midfield and create a better shape to stop counters. Or how Robben and Ribery helped Pep understand that overloads are not in quantity but in quality too, and now he loves isolating skilful wingers like Sane, Mahrez and Sterling with fullbacks, instead of players who specialize in their movement around the box like Pedro, Villa and Cuenca.
Maybe Arteta will eventually get there as a manager, and lets hope he is still at Arsenal or that it hasn’t cost Arsenal too much.
*Pep struggled with using skillful wide players/wingers at Barcelona. He didnt get the most out of Hleb, Afellay, Deolofeu, Sanchez, Tello and Nolito.
On Ceballos though Tim, I think you are going to end up disappointed if he is played there.
Ceballos is a player I have watched since he was at Betis and I have loved watching him since. I always thought we would never be able to compete for young players of his quality because he is really special. Now that he is here, I have noticed a difference in footballing cultures when it comes to players that I did not recognise initially.
Your technical ability compared to the scarcity of that ability will determine how a player is viewed in a particular country. Ceballos is more creative than most players in English teams, so he looks good as an attacking midfielder. In Spain, where creative players and technical ability are more available, Ceballos’ position is better defined according to how he was trained his whole life. It is the same as Victor Wanyama is a deep lying playmaker when he plays for Kenya, Essien afforded more license for Ghana in attack and Gabon having a player to protect the defence to allow Didier Nding and Lemina to attack,when they are defensive players in Europe.
Ceballos falls in the same bracket as spanish players like Iniesta, Carzola and David Silva. Outside of Spain, he falls into the same group as Modric, Kovacic, Ziellinski, Thiago Alcantara and our recent target, Auor. Players who are creative but do not consistently put up big numbers in the stats, but connect play in the final third and offer security on the ball. They will have great seasons here and there in terms of attacking numbers, but playing them outside of a midfield three with a double barrel will leave them just trying to be competent instead of shining.
The biggest example though of how such a player can be confused in a country that has no idea of the position that they thrive in is our very own, Jack Wilshere. England tried playing him as an attacking midfielder and it failed, as a deep lying playmaker it worked better, but as part of a three where he had room to move around and do his defensive work, he shined.
So please don’t let the through balls against Liverpool fool you, he can’t do that consistently. He is best connect at transitioning the ball from our third to the opposition third, but in the final third, he isn’t good enough to consistently create chances or play the pass before the final pass. Maybe if Ceballos and Thomas play ahead of Xhaka or Elneny, then we can copy Liverpool’s midfield and use the high press as our playmaker.
Your comments are great Devlin, but just a few things.
First, I respect your depth of knowledge and experience when it comes to Ceballos. I think we agree on a few things there: I see him like a Cazorla or Silva. I know he will drop to start the attack but he’s not at all like Alcantara or Modric or Fabregas. He simply doesn’t have the range of deep progressive passing that those guys have.
I also resent the implication that I’m basing my judgement off a few games or even worse a few passes against Liverpool. Come on, man, give me more credit than that.
And, I don’t think that he just looks good because we don’t have enough attacking talent.
I’m very realistic in my assessment of him: I don’t think he’s going to be an assist machine, nor that he’s a “#10”. But what he could do is that extremely important link role high up the pitch, play between the lines, get the final ball to guys like Pepe and the other forwards. I know he doesn’t have much experience with that but he has been excellent doing it for Spain and when Arteta has pushed him up the pitch we have looked much more dangerous and he has looked like a guy who could both assist and score. Frankly, the thing I’m seeing is that he’s the “least worst option” in that role and we cannot, cannot, cannot, keep playing a back three and expect to finish top four this season.
I wouldn’t even really want to keep him except that we don’t have the money or the players (Ozil is mummy dust and Willian is another who hasn’t played in the middle much) ready to fill the role. So, he brings energy, pressing, fearlessness on the ball, movement, and smart passing. It’s a little bit like when Emery put Ramsey up top (and this may land me in hot water but Ceballos is more consistently technical than Ramsey ever was despite the occasional back-heel assist). I think we just need to get players into those positions even if it’s not the very best idea because they are the best option we have (unless Ozil is brought back from the dead).
I find Dani quite confounding as a player. At times highly skillful and at others prone to take one touch too many. A sometimes strong tackler who can look completely overmatched against players with pace. He is still developing and I like his current trajectory, but there is a level of inconsistency to him that he has to overcome. BUT – the game is all about combinations of players, and I think if Partey eventually is playing behind Dani as Tim recommends, that may allow Dani to flourish, getting just a half second more on the ball and not having to worry about pushing further up the pitch. Spaces and positions get a little bit of adjustment with more oomph in our midfield.
I may sound deranged but I think Mikel should drop Partey in right away. He’s an experienced, disciplined player whose presence is hard for Pep to strategize against, since there’s no history to study. Element of surprise might help us. But Tim’s right to expect a 3-4-3 without Thomas to start. If he doesn’t start, maybe he comes in at the half and throws off Pep’s plans entirely. As I’ve said, I’m really excited about this signing. So many possibilities.
I get it Tim, and sorry for the implication. I didn’t mean it that way, I just meant it as more of (forgive me if I am using this wrong) recency bias.
I do also think he is a “least worst option” in a position that we don’t really have to play, but he could be helped if we play him where he shines.
The reason I am also doubting his effectiveness in that position is that it takes very different perspectives of the game to constantly be creative in deep midfield and to be creative in the final third, and sadly after a couple of games he will be figured out and we will be back to square one.
The decision making in both areas is based on very different amounts of time on the ball, body shape when receiving, opposition shape and intensity of their pressing. The ability to read play fast, know what options you have before receiving the ball(body shape dictates a lot of that), and maneuver the ball well enough to give you time to assess the pitch further to make the best decision if spaces are closed. Whether it is playing the pass that makes the chance or playing the ball backwards because there is nothing on, it is like Arsene said when speaking about creative players, that everything is very intentional/deliberate.
I don’t think Dani has enough in those areas as he is a player who holds on to the ball too long (seemingly in a panic at times) and uses his dribbling to beat the initial pressure, but in ding so, he is doing it to get himself free without taking the positioning of his teammates or the opposition into account. His actions after he dribbles out are more akin to Guendouzi, they are playing to whatever is in front of you and not to the best option. He plays to get out of pressure and then makes his decision afterwards, which in deeper areas means teams will drop off after their press is broken and he can play a pass, but in advanced areas, the press is unrelenting and stays in your face the whole time, so he will be forced further and further back.
All that to say that he is dictated to by the opposition n the final third, where a player in the hole ought to dribble in a way that can dictate where he/she wants to play a pass to.
I would also like for us to move away from a single player creative solution. that system has shown us that you need not only one, but two very good creative players in your squad to succeed. at the highest level, those players have to be exceptional and we cant afford that. We also cant afford to drop in creativity to this level when we drop one player, in the same way that you need multiple goalscorers.
I say we find a way to play that creates chances as a unit, because it will make us look Soooooo dumb to play a player in a position where we have just kinda permanently sidelined the best option. Either way, we can use Ceballos and create chances better in his actual position, so why play the system with a #10?
Tim, do you think that Arsene is keeping the goings on from that time period to protect his former players from the judgement they could get for them doing some bad things?
He was always protective and many players have said that he protected players where he didn’t have to. Maybe some of our favourite players might have done some f*ucked up things and Wenger is just protecting their legacies.
We want to believe that falling out of the top 4 was born out of something other than Arsene’s limitations. It’s far more likely that him and the ownership were locked in a cycle of mutual complacency, believing that they could tinker at the margins and feint at a title push once every decade or so to keep the impatients happy.
How such a brilliant and competitive person could settle for that is one of life’s mysteries, but not in the sense that its rare – you see people get comfortable and lose the fire all the time. We just really want to believe that he could never.
Still deserves the stadium to be named after him, though.
OK well Devlin you just made a couple of really good comments there.
It’s too early to tell if Arteta is smart enough, imaginative enough and able enough to learn from his players, but let’s hope he leaves that room for them to show him. That’s one area where Wenger excelled.
Your thoughts about how players are given different roles according to how their skills compare with what’s readily available, makes a lot of sense to me and explains why we see players perform different roles at club and country. I agree with you on Wilshere, and tend to agree with you on Ceballos – he’s good at shifting play around and using space but I would want someone with sharper attacking instincts to play alongside / in front of him.
We’re about to start a run of arguably our toughest group of games. It will pretty much determine our season. If we can manage 12-14 points from the next seven league games we should still be competitive for the champions league spots. It’s going to be a real test but I’m really looking forward to how we handle it.
The throw on thing from the BBC interview was odd but consistent with Wenger’s idiosyncratic nature.
Then there’s this. If a thing were ever true, it is this answer:
“What do you want your legacy to be?
Somebody who served his club with total commitment and integrity and honesty and who loved the club. I gave Arsenal the best years of my life. In different circumstances, but I always felt with the same passion.”
You are spot on about throw-ins. From the early days of Arsene Wenger, our throw-ins have been consistently awful. Now we know why.
For those who didn’t see it yet, a really nice interview with Francis Cagigao in the Guardian. I came away reminded that while the way we have done transfer business has sometimes fallen short in terms of squad building and management, we have nevertheless always had a great sense of purpose and passion in our scouting.
I also like the reference to Wenger being an “exceptional listener”. That’s something I value in a leader and something I want to emulate in life.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2020/oct/15/francis-cagigao-former-arsenal-scout-messi-lauren-partey-wenger-fabregas-title-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw
lovely read. thanks for sharing.