Auba, Emi, and the homegrown rule

I don’t know about you but I was never worried that Auba wasn’t going to sign for Arsenal. I didn’t have any inside information or anything but by completely removing myself from transfer rumors, not listening to any Arsenal podscats, and also unfollowing folks on twitter who love to talk about transfers and handwring over everything Arsenal I guess I insulated myself from the emotional trauma that so many felt.

I will admit that it helped to read the Guardian and NOT see him being linked to any other clubs. That was probably the one thing that gave me the most confidence. I felt like if he didn’t sign for us, we were going to have to sell him, and if there was any indication that he wasn’t going to sign, then there would be links in the big papers. And I was also confident because I feel like (as I have reported here several times) the club’s plan is to have older, established, players lead the development of the younger rising stars. And of course, Auba himself boosted my confidence by being respectful and not shopping himself around to tons of teams.

So, why the long wait? I think it’s because of the structure of his contract. From my research, Arsenal have reportedly only offered him £250k a week. But that’s as base pay. I heard that with bonuses that goes up quite a bit. So, there was probably a lot of negotiating over bonuses and how they are structured.

Now, since I write about stats here a lot I wanted to point out a stat that I will be looking at eagerly over the next two years or so: 61. Robin van Persie scored 132 goals for Arsenal and Auba will need 133 to go above him on the all-time scorer’s list. Since he already has 72 goals, that means he needs just 61 more goals to relegate van Persie. Given that he has 60 goals for Arsenal in the last two full seasons, I think it’s a realistic target.

In other transfer news, Emi Martinez has joined Aston Villa on a permanent deal which will see him guaranteed a starting spot. In his farewell he said
“I could not be happier to leave through the front door with the Arsenal fanbase supporting me and the club supporting me. I had 11 years at the club, and even if it was a hard road for me, and I suffered through my time at Arsenal, today I am happy and I tried to show young goalies how work pays off.”

It was a hard road for Martinez and I want to wish him the best of careers going forward. Despite my Mugabe Media Lockdown I was still treated to a lot of the rather moronic discussion about this transfer (on twitter) with folks pretending that they are distribution experts, shot-stopping experts, and high claims coaches to make various points about why we should keep Emi or whatever.

Just let him go. Just like we had to let Serge Gnabry go. Sometimes you have to let people go. My first wife was a huge worrier – as I am – and one thing she had to tell herself over and over was that “worrying is like paying interest on a debt that you don’t owe.” Maybe Martinez will be better than Leno? Maybe we will have kept the wrong one? I’m not worrying about it. And even if it comes true, you have to ask yourself to look at the whole picture. Villa paid £20m for Martinez and if Arsenal invest that in a top quality MFer then I’m ok with it, even if Emi turns out to be marginally better than Leno. It’s about the team; improving the team, improving the club, making the whole team stronger.

One thing, however, that does concern me slightly (STOP WORRYING TIM!!!) is the homegrown rule. By selling off Emi, it looks like we might have to actually drop one of our senior non-homegrown. The simplest way to look at this is that each team can only have 17 non-home-grown-senior-players. At Arsenal right now those guys are:

  1. Auba
  2. Ceballos
  3. Kolasinac
  4. Lacazette
  5. Leno
  6. David Luiz
  7. Mustafi
  8. Ozil
  9. Sokratis
  10. Pepe
  11. Tierney
  12. Torreira
  13. Xhaka
  14. Saliba*
  15. Gabriel
  16. Soares
  17. Pablo Mari
  18. Elneny
  19. Guendouzi*
  20. Willian

So, as you can see, Houston, we have a problem. Arsenal cannot bring in a player like Aouar or Partey until they find a way to offload four two of these players. We will either have to loan these players out, sell them, or we will have to drop them from our Premier League squad.

There is a lot of noise in the press this morning that Lucas Torreira is going out on loan to one of two Serie A sides. And that makes sense for a number of reasons, for both the player and for Arsenal. And going back to “what me worry” I’m confident that the club will either loan out some of the guys who are excess to requirements (Sokratis, Mustafi, Ozil, Kolasinac, Elneny and Guendouzi) or that the club will simply not name them to the squad. This is just how it’s going to have to be done, sorry. It’s a pretty hard and fast rule, unlike say FFP, and I believe it’s even stricter in the Europa League so there’s that as well.

I firmly believe that this is the real holdup for why Arsenal aren’t getting in a MFer yet. Our bargaining position is already not great for getting these players out on loan, bringing in another foreign player will just make it worse. Teams will demand that we pay a lot of the wages for these players. Not only that but a lot of these men will simply refuse a loan. Ozil isn’t going anywhere which sucks but we made that bed and we have to lie in it. And Guendouzi isn’t really as sought-after as he thought. Still, my suspicion is that we will see a number of loan deals announced soon (Elneny, Torreira, and Sokratis) and that when the time comes to officially name the 25-man squad there will be at least öne surprise.

Sorry if that puts a damper on what is otherwise a very good day! We got Aubameyang to sign. That means he believes in the direction the club are headed. And if he believes, then I believe: this will all get sorted out before the deadline (which is some time in October, I can’t even be arsed to remember the date).

*I just reread the rule and I think Guendouzi still counts as U21 this season. He would have to be born in 1998 or earlier to count as a senior player. I also erroneously marked Saliba who is still 19. Some folks believe that Mustafi counts as homegrown but I checked last year’s official roster and the Premier League did NOT put him as homegrown. They could have made a mistake but he needed 36 months at Everton and if I counted right he left 5 months short.

Qq

44 comments

  1. Tim, I believe Mustafi counts as homegrown on account of him having trained at Everton early in his career. I also think Guendouzi doesn’t count because he is under 21. So, that makes this list at 18. Technically, Arsenal would have to get rid of two to get one in. Sokratis and Torreira seem to be the candidate.

    On the cutting out the noise, I’ve started to cut out twitter altogether. 30 minutes a day. Also, what could help is making a list on twitter. So you curate and eliminate noise. As always love reading your work.

    1. I checked the roster last season and Mustafi doers not count as homegrown.

      I think the thing I did wrong was count Saliba and Guendo.

      Our homegrown players are:

      Bellerin
      Chambers
      Holding
      Macey
      Maitland-Niles

      I’m going to double-check everything.

      1. Mustafi spent two and a half years at Everton when he turned 17. I figured he would qualify. But he doesn’t. Sorry, my bad.

      2. Were we to include Iliev (instead of buying another keeper), that’d make 6. And, if the continuous racket about Partey and Aouar is to be believed (considering both Ornstein and Fabrizio Romano have confirmed interest), we’d be able to get them both into the squad within the quota. Only thing that throws a spanner in the works is the link to the Icelandic kid from Dijon; I see that he’s a cheap pickup as a stop-gap, but wouldn’t that be equally true of someone like Iliev? Iliev was picked for Estonia in the most recent round of international matches, so he can’t be *that* bad….

  2. It does seem like we should be able to move a few of the likely targets, even if not for as much $ as we’d like. Torriera, Sokratis, Kola, and Guend would seem most likely to me. Honestly, at this point, I’d much rather keep Elneny than Guend. They have fairly similar skillsets. Guend is younger, but also more downsides relative to attitude and cards.

  3. Tim, maybe you already addressed this in a prior post but I feel like you’re selling Elmeny short here. I’ve always liked his work.

    1. What did I say that sold him short? He went on loan last season, I would expect that if Arsenal are buying new MFers that the ones like Elneny and Torreira, who couldn’t get PT in the squad, would be on the list of potential moves.

  4. Nothing but love for Emi — I have nothing against Villa either and so will likely put myself through the misery of watching a few more of their games this year. And, I’m not worried about selling Emi either! My thinking was that the club should sell either Leno or Emi based on who they could get more money for, but I also know nothing about goalkeeping.

    Very curious to see how the next few weeks work out and in particular who leaves. At this point I’d be surprised to see Elneny go, and that’s just fine because he’s just fine. Not great, not even very good, but he’s pretty good and seems able to spot in and do a job with minimal fuss. Refreshing.

  5. “Just let him go”.

    Couldn’t agree more, Tim. Emi’s is one of those departures who you want to do well, excel. He’s no one’s Number 2. His time has come. Some gooners would pick him over Leno. Others said we needed two top quality keepers to get the best out of both of them. He’s no one’s number one-and-a-half either. Sometimes players in his position have to be playing regularly, even if it’s not for us. Arsene was a firm believer in that, and sometimes made big decisions in making room (Vieira for Fabregas), though the situation was much bigger (team lead replacement and major transition), rather than keeping a good player of ripe playing age on the bench. Emi also has a chance to become Argentina’s Number 1.

    I’m with you on this. Just let him go.

    Bluegooner, this is what youre talking about. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJysxwyHhy8&ab_channel=Arsenal

  6. Off topic, Tim, but I just can’t help thinking about the Nuggets, now clearly the jewel in KSE’s crown. Both Stan and Josh were at the game (and what a game) in Orlando last night. Wow. Those fellas have no quit.

    Nikola Jokic passes the basketball like a 7 foot Magic Johnson. The big Serb’s ball intelligence makes him one of the most watchable players in the game, and while he hasn’t exactly disproved Woody Harrelson (🙂), I could watch the bredda every day. Arguably the two most watchable players in the game area couple of dudes from the former Yugoslavia, with Doncic being some baller too.

    Makes me wonder what KSE are doing right in Denver, and whether there are any lessons to be drawn in North London.

    1. Be extremely careful comparing/drawing lessons.

      1) Josh Kroenke actually knows basketball
      2) They have been close to the finals before and then demolished the team
      3) SALARY CAP SALARY CAP SALARY CAP
      4) DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT

      The Premier League is nothing like any American sport.

        1. Bill Simmons did a rundown of every notable Nuggets postseason appearance since they became a team in the 1950’s. I think they been to maybe 1-2 finals and have no banners. In 50 years. Their blushes are only saved by the Clippers, who have never once in their existence made it to even a conference finals.

          The Nuggets this year are fun to watch and the two man game with Jokic and Murray is probably the best in the league right now. I’m not sure how much credit the owners should get for this though. I would credit their player development for those guys blossoming (neither a blue chipper in the draft). The other side of the Nuggets coin is that as great as their comebacks have been, why go down 3-1 in those series in the first place if you’re a top team?

          Anywho, you can tell I’m into the NBA playoffs this year 🙂

          1. That makes 2 of us. Im really enjoying them. I support the Lakers (thanks Magic) but the Heat are looking formidable. I love Denver’s team spirit. That still counts for something in professional sports.

  7. As long as Arsenal and Emi have an understanding he lets one in on purpose when Villa play us , I’m totally cool with his departure. Preferably one from Auba to give him a leg up in his golden boot race……and to shut up the Auba should’ve been sold so we can invest in another project youth crowd.

  8. a month or so ago when i suggested arsenal should sell martinez, i had guys ready to take my head off, declaring how arsenal need two top keepers. however, like claude says, martinez is nobody’s backup. he’s simply too good to not play regularly; much like fabianski. likewise, arsenal needed the money. £20 million for your backup keeper is mighty fine business every day of the week. i wish emiliano all the best with his career.

    also, a month ago, i mentioned interest seeing how elneny would do after his loan. unlike most, who go on loan to get game time for their national team, elneny said that his loan was to play regularly in order to regain his best form and prove himself at arsenal. for an international in his late twenties to be that humble is rare. i’m happy his return has had such a fantastic start. now, i’m interested to see if arteta will play him as a lone holding midfielder that allows arsenal to go to a back four and bring in a creative midfielder. we’ll see.

    1. Elneny doesn’t always stick his head in there. But positionally, he’s good and often you’ll see him in among the CBs in the box when he senses the need. His first touch is his strength. Only wish he had another gear sometimes.

      In a team that plays out from the back– Mo can be trusted taking that central pass from Leno inside the 18. Going to need that in every match Ceballos doesn’t play.

      Unless Arsenal sign another MFer with that touch– keep Elneny in the squad.

    2. Points taken, Josh. If Emi wants a guaranteed starting place each week and won’t put up with less, then he has to go. Lets just hope Leno doesn’t pick up an injury (it happens). I’m not sure about the economics, however. Brentford want 10 mil for their keeper? Where’s the gain in that scenario? 10 mil? That doesn’t buy you Partey’s shin guard. There’s no one in the youth set up. Arthur Okonkwo is quite highly rated, but nowhere near ready to step up. Some other kid from Estonia (?) We could end up with plenty of egg on our faces. The next time the trainer comes on the pitch to look at Bernd, my heart will be in my mouth.

      1. Also Josh,
        Very impressed with Elneny. I always thought of him as too lightweight and a bit of a headless chicken. On that last showing, he gets my vote. He seemed to be in the right place at the right time and kept it simple. His work rate we already knew about. Xhaka and Dani will have to fight it out for the other slot, if that carries on. In Dani’s case he will most likely be fighting anyway. I couldn’t believe his petulance in the warm up. The Sky commentators put it down to “fighting spirit”. Yeah, right. Looked like a strop to me.
        Pleased for Holding. I thought he was going to go the way of Arsenal’s other “lost centre halves”. Great skill spot going forward. Both he and Elneny might be a couple of plusses, I didn’t see coming.

  9. James McNicholas said on Arsecast that Saliba will eventually ppl count as homegrown as he was bought before being loaned back.

    1. I doubt it. He needs to train with the club for 36 months before his 21st birthday or the end of the season during which he turns 21.

      He needed to be in training at Arsenal before he even signed. He turned 18 in March 2019 and signed for Arsenal in July 2019.

      What is a Home-Grown Player?

      A “Home-Grown Player” means a player who, irrespective of nationality or age, has been registered with any club affiliated to The Football Association or the Football Association of Wales for a period, continuous or not, of three entire seasons, or 36 months, before his 21st birthday (or the end of the season during which he turns 21).

  10. As a great man once said (I take no credit for this) if you have a problem that can be solved why worry, and if you have a problem that can’t be solved then why worry??

  11. The Icelandic back up was rated at 19 out of 20 , in other words second worst.
    Said to be addicted to punching the ball excessively. That always has dangerous consequences and unsettles the defenders.
    Let us hope Leno, who punches less stays fit.
    Martinez was a good catcher and having a dominating presence.

    1. I don’t really believe that link. Dijon’s second choice keeper, who is not homegrown? Makes no sense. I’d rather give Matt Macey a chance in the cup ties.

  12. I will own it, I was in favor of (reluctantly) selling high on Aubameyang in order to distribute the funds elsewhere in the squad. I think the piece that I didn’t appreciate when considering this is the feeling of goodwill that this generates around the club. It’s like a new signing, but better because he is a proven commodity and he chose to stay and finish his career with us when he is clearly at the apogee of his powers and had the ability to go wherever he wanted. That lends unbelievable credibility to Mikel Arteta in particular but to the club as a whole. We convinced this absolutely top drawer striker that this was a place where he could become a legend and realize his ambitions. That will reverberate around the football world. For a club best known since 2005 for losing our best players and never “replacing” them, this message rings loud and true that we are building something special.

    Selling Aubameyang, as much as it might’ve made fiscal sense, would’ve sent the opposite message: We are a project, we don’t think we can win yet and neither does our best player. That psychological boost that I am feeling now as this was announced was what I underestimated. Only now do I really feel deep down how right this move was by Arsenal.

    1. i appreciate you holding your hand up, admitting you’re human. it’s what i love about the community here. however, i’m not sure aubameyang could have gone wherever he wanted.

      how many clubs would pay whatever arsenal would ask for a 31-year old who also wants £250k a week + incentives over 3 years? i hadn’t heard any rumors but if they existed, would he be able to achieve what he wants in the game there? like you said, he has the opportunity to establish a legacy at arsenal. also, he’s at ground zero and knows exactly what arteta is doing. he’s in london, has friends in the team, and the fans love him.

      as for arsenal, selling auba would likely only cover a percentage of what they paid for him. who’s guaranteed to replace his goals for less than what they sell him for? after that, they would still have the other issues with the team that need to be addressed.

      once i heard the offer of a 3-year deal for £250k a week, i never doubted it would get done. i believe it was the best bet for both aubameyang and arsenal.

  13. We’ve let go of two backup goalkeepers in recent times: Martinez and Fabianski . Both were excellent for us (Fabianski won us the F.A. Cup on penalties), both deserved to be # 1 somewhere. Leno is a keeper – I mean than in both ways – I wouldn’t let him go. But…the one that got away that I wish had worked out was Szczęsny. Now backstopping another legendary team, I’ll always think of him as a Gunner.

    1. “Smokin’ in the boys room, yeah
      Smokin’ in the boys room
      Now, teacher, don’t you fill me up with your rules
      But everybody knows that smokin’ ain’t allowed in school
      All right” – Brownsville Junction (badly covered by Mötley Crüe)

  14. Lots of talk over here that Ozil will not be named in the Premier league squad, and possibly even the Europa League one, in a desperate attempt to force him out.

  15. Alcantara signed for Liverpool.

    You know, I really did have City as winning it this year, but you have to say, Liverpool have a frighteningly good squad.

    A fascinating season awaits.

    1. I give Liverpool an real edge for the title with the addition of Thiago but I think a few teams are better than them defensively, us included (I never thought I’d ever write that).

      City are in a bit of trouble. Aguero will be out reportedly until maybe November, leaving Jesus as their only fit striker. Yes, they have a brilliant attacking midfield in KdB, Bernado Silva and the young Nick Foden but they too are suspect at the back.

      If we get our ducks in a row and play consistently like we did against Fulham it will indeed be a fascinating season with potential for us to do significantly better in the table.

    1. It’s literally killing me to watch him play right now, knowing that we gave him chance after chance and were rewarded with injury after injury. What player he’s turned out to be. Was he faking it at Arsenal for his love of schnitzel?

      1. I think the critical mistake was sending the boy off to the crap end of Birmingham, to be coached and managed by Tony Pubis. If that isn’t enough send anyone pining for the Tyrol, then I don’t know what is.

  16. Nothing worse than van P.
    AFC carried the piece of $$$$ for years, we get one good year and he goes to manure and wins the EPL that year.
    If AFC had his goals that year we would have won league.

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