The other day I wrote about the top four race and had to cut it off because it was getting too long. But I wanted to say a few words about the teams in the middle group that Arsenal find themselves in, the group that are waiting around for one of the big-spending top four to slip up so that they can reach the Shangri-La of the Champions League. The clubs I’m thinking of in this group are Arsenal (I already picked to finish 5th), Everton, Newcastle, Wolverhampton, Leicester and Tottenham.
I used to say “the world isn’t right unless Arsenal are in 4th and Everton are in 10th”. And then the world decided to have a major shift and now Arsenal dropped to 8th and Everton no longer want to be in 10th and are spending big to climb up the table.
Transfermarkt is claiming that they didn’t spend any money on the James Rodriguez transfer but if that’s true – and let’s say it’s all just sunk into wages – then it’s a truly remarkable piece of business. James is the difference for them this year. And I’m not discounting the other two MFers that they signed (Allan and Doucoure), it’s just that James is on another level.
James is one of the most gifted footballers in the Premier League and if he wants it and if he can stay healthy (which aren’t small asks considering how his career fell off a cliff after joining Real Madrid and how he’s suffered so many injuries) then he has the ability to transform Everton into a serious challenger for top 6.
That said, they also spent wisely on Allan and (to a lesser degree) Doucoure. Carlo Ancelotti wants to play though the middle, he wants his team to have the ball, and he went out and got some players who can do that. If I were an Everton fan, I’d be happy to see the backs of Sigurdsson and others. Some of the players Everton purchased in the past were hyped to the gills and have really been duds.
That, of course, is the danger here with these purchases this season. I think they are going to be a tough team to beat but they have weaknesses. Pickford had a good game against Tottenham but he’s not a reliable keeper. They also need more reliable forwards: Richarlison, Keane, and Dom are going to require a LOT of shots to get Everton up into the 65+ goals needed to challenge for the top four. And considering that they have been hanging out around 44 goals a season that’s a huge leap for those players and they aren’t currently linked to any 20+ goal scorers, so I don’t know where the goals will come from.
I put Newcastle here because they are just a fun team to watch. That’s all, I don’t really think that they are going to mount a serious challenge to top 6. They bought Callum Wilson and he’s going to maybe add a little firepower but he’s 28 and has never scored more than 14 goals in a top flight season. The problem with Newcastle is that they have a lot of exciting players who are also at the same time very inconsistent. Miguel Almiron has never quite found his feet in the Premier League, Saint-Maximin is another player who can dribble the air out of the ball but can’t seem to turn it on for the final ball. They also have Andy Carroll who is actually better than people think, when he’s healthy, which isn’t very often. They got off to a great start – Callum Wilson scored and Almiron assisted – but I will be surprised if they continue to play good football.
Wolves, beware the wolves. Wolverhampton under Nuno Espirito Santo have developed an almost automatic style of play. When you face them, you know exactly what you are going to get: they don’t want a ton of the ball (though they aren’t allergic to it), they aren’t a high pressing side (they are low table for high presses and tackles, upper-mid-table for midfield defense, and upper table for low block defense), and they definitely want to hit you on the counter.
They are still a little short on forward options. Raul Jimenez is a good striker but just shy of great. 17 goals last season isn’t something to laugh at and he’s already off the mark this season which could bode well for him and his team. But they only scored 51 goals last season and despite their excellent defensive approach that’s probably not enough to mount a top 4 challenge. They did buy a striker and someone who you may not have heard of – Fabio Silva for 40m from Porto. This guy is an incredible talent – just so good with the ball at feet – but he’s just 18. If they can get 10 goals from him this season that would probably be more than enough to crack into the top 6. That plus the fact that they don’t have Europa League this season means that they should be fresh toward the end of the season when bigger clubs are starting to feel the strain of twice-weekly matches. I have to admit that Wolves and Everton are the two teams I think will give Arsenal a real challenge for 5th.
Of course, I’m not sleeping on Leicester! I hate to say this folks but there are a lot of really good teams out there and taking 5th or higher isn’t going to be easy this year: this isn’t like 2007 when there were only two really good teams in the League. Leicester have a proven goal scorer, one of the best creative midfielders in the League, a top coach, one of the best DMs in the League, and a team defensive ethos which swarms opponents to win the ball back.
Leicester do have Europa League this season, which will absolutely drag them down a bit. They also rely far too much on Vardy. If and when he starts to perform at a more human level I don’t know who they have that can pick up the slack. They have cash, however, from the sale of Ben Chilwell to Chelsea for 50m and there’s still almost a month to buy another forward. Which they will need given the number of matches they are going to play this season.
And finally, there’s Tottenham. Let me take off my Arsenal hat for a second and say: they have one of the best players in the League in Son. The rest of the team is decent enough and Sir Harry Kane esq. was a great player for a few years but since he’s started piling up injuries (and comically decided that he’s a #10 instead of just a CF) he’s been very normal. I’m not saying he’s bad, I’m not stupid, just that he’s not a 25+ goals a season player right now. His xG last season was 10.6. Now, I know he scored 18 goals and players can overperform xG but to give some context his xG was 26.1 in 2017-18, 24 of that was non-penalty xG. The season after that he dropped over half: down to 14.1 and 11.1 npxG. Something is very wrong with Harry Kane.
Part of the problem has to be Dele Alli. He had a mini “revival” last season where he scored 8 and provided 4 assists but that’s a huge drop from his career high 18 goals and 7 assists. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence that both he and Kane have struggled the last two seasons.
I know, I know, “they still finished above Arsenal”. Yep. That’s how bad we were!
And let’s be real for a minute here: Jose Mourinho is a football black hole, making everything about him and his perfection while sucking all joy out of the game. They are still a dangerous team. They have a lot of really good players, Son saved them several times last season, but they have this vampire in their midst. I will be surprised if Jose lasts the whole season. As soon as Harry Kane gets sick of Jose throwing him under the bus – and Jose has already blamed the players for the first defeat of the season and publicly demanded that the club buy him a striker! – and gives the club an ultimatum, Jose will be gone.
I’m pinning a big chunk of my analysis on the fact that Jose will continue playing ugly football, that the fans and players will get sick to death of it and of his little act, and that despite their talent, they will start to crumble. They have a good team. They should be easily challenging for top four. But the enormous sucking from Jose Mourinho should make sure that they finish below Arsenal this season.
Ok! Hey it’s done! I finished! Whew.
Thanks Tim, am in very close agreement on all counts. Except Newcastle. Leeds, Burnley and Sheffield will surely challenge for top 6 before they do?
And now that Auba confirmed, let’s get that last bit of midfield business done.
Leeds… oh man. that’s a huge omission on my part.
I don’t know what to think about Leeds. Let me just tell you that they will probably be the craziest pressing team in the League this season. If they can get a goal-scorer up top (I know they bought a forward but he’s not great and Bam Bam isn’t very efficient – though that could change) they will definitely make a top six run.
‘… but they have this vampire in their midst.’
And they invited him into the house.
Snapping piece Tim, thanks.
There are only borderline-solid teams in that group– including Arsenal. Though our club have the potential– to be as good as we might dream. Depends on a couple of factors. Such as how consistently Arteta can get his tactics right, or– how flexible the team can prove to be in shifting gears during a half. That Mikel can communicate in real time in 5(+) languages? Don’t underestimate the import of that advantage.
Only two of the teams in that group have the capacity to overcome an extended injury to their primary goal provider. Spuds and Arsenal. Arsenal have a viability to spread the goal-scoring around enough if required. Son and Moura (and an ‘up-year’ Alli) might be able to carry Tottenham. Wolves and Foxes would go flat. Everton has enough of a variety of players who potentially could contribute– but it all would have to click just right. Newcastle would be DOA.
Does seem to be an abundance of enthusiasm among the teams predicted in those 6-10 spots.
This is the strongest Premier League I can ever recall… and transfer season isn’t over yet. After City and Liverpool, 3-10 could be in any order – all good teams with good (Mourinho aside) managers. I honestly think there should not be any shame if a team finishes, say, 8th… that team is probably going to be better than 2nd place in Serie A or the Bundesliga.
Aubaman! Arsenal’s superhero.
Signs da ting.
Great write-up, Tim, really appreciate your analysis.
I agree with Greg that Newcastle aren’t going to be a challenger for top 6, but definitely feel that Wolves, Everton, Leicester, and perhaps Tottenham (if they get a new manager boost in November!), will push us all the way for 5th or 6th. I have this feeling that Burnley won’t be as strong this year, but that’s just a gut feeling more than anything, and with Sheffield, it’s really hurting them that they don’t have fans. I heard one of their fans on a podcast last season (after it went crowdless) say that Sheffield’s team really play to their fans and that without them they’ll drop points. Interesting.
One thing this season will really test is squad depth, but that goes for our direct rivals as well (Wolves, etc.), but, as you rightly point out, those teams not involved in Europe will have an advantage over us in that regard. I know that qualifying for the Europa was a good thing in terms of what it signaled and felt like for the players and club, but I worry that’s going to be a poisoned chalice this year especially because of the shortened season.
Right with you there on that. I was happy Arsenal finished 8th and would rather not be in Europe. This is especially fraught with trouble this season because of different rules for COVID and whatnot. But alas we won the FA Cup and I wouldn’t trade that for anything. So, I guess we have to suffer the Europa League for the cup.
Oh quit yer bellyaching!! 🙂
At least one piece of the team was solidified today and goes a big way to helping us potentially get us back into Europe’s top club competition: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang!
A joy to watch. A privilege to call him a Gunner. A player around who Arteta can build another great Arsenal offense. A difference maker who rejected immediate Champions League to keep the project going. Pure class and and one of the top 7-8 players in the Premier League.
A very good day for the club.
I didn’t weigh in on the previous article, so will weigh in here on both.
Assuming VVD stays healthy, Liverpool and City are well in front. Chelsea is deep and strong in attack, perhaps a little weaker in defense, but I’d still have them in 3rd. Absent Utd acquiring another strong attacker, I’d say Arsenal are at least as strong as they are in both attack and defense. Utd just has a stronger mid. So I’d actually include Utd in this group.
And yes, this is going to be a very competitive year. I actually wouldn’t mind it too much if we can’t sell a few players, as I think a deeper squad will certainly help.
I wouldn’t say that Kane has become less productive due to reorganizing his position all of own volition. Instead, it’s directly linked to downturn of creativity from his midfield. I don’t have numbers, but I’ve watched spurs closely over the years. Dele has been poor, creatively, for about 2 years, and Eriksen effectively peaced out, after suffering burnout 1.5 years ago. The burden on both these players can be traced back to the loss of Moussa dembele, who was integral to progressing the ball, with either his ballerina-like, pirouetting dribbles or his meticulously accurate passing. His injuries and subsequent departure meant a chain reaction of unfortunate circumstances and eventually resulted in this neutered version of Kane. A Kane who cannot just hunt for goals, and who sometimes has to defer to Son for shots. He knows he’s still the primary goalscorer, yet he has to help create centrally.
As a chelsea fan, I’ve had an up close view and developed deep, almost painful, appreciation for how Mourinho sets up an overarching philosophy for a team. Mourinho isn’t necessarily wedded to an idea of how to play. His teams have featured everything from quick counter attacking interplay, measured probing possession, or route one football. Barca were in the process of hiring him right before they decided, correctly, on Pep. He only wants to win and is a chameleon. When he doesn’t have quality he compensates with a rigid system that seeks to neutralize opp. rather than act as a protagonist(As Emery once put it). But, see the 2014-15 season chelsea highlights as an example of what happens if Mourinho has talent at his disposal, with the caveat that they bend to his will and accept molding. We played structure football, but we didn’t exhaust our creativity by doing so. Mourinho gave license to three players to do as they saw fit in attack: Hazard, Oscar, and Fabregas. Everyone else held the piano up so those three could play.
Oscar was/is a lot like Dele. They both thrive in chaos and exist outside the organization of a regular set up, and utilize space really well. Son is an able Robin to Kane’s Batman, and while not one-to-one, it’s not too dissimilar to our very own Hazard with Costa.
However, and the board/Mourinho both know this, they need an organizer. A midfield waypost which all roads go to and exit from. They need their Moussa dembele or their version of Fabby. Eriksen is gone and that’s not Dele’s game. Mourinho has made up his mind on Ndombele and this attitude may extend Lo celso. He’s stubborn and honestly doesn’t waste time on ppl who he feels aren’t worth it.(See KDB, Lulaku, Salah 😂😭😭) Right now, I believe they are trying to remedy the situation to possibly sell one of those guys. If they do and sign a quality orchestrator, then watch out.
In Arteta like Arsene, we have a top 4 manager thus playing the competitions is a given. We will rise to the occasion.
COYGs.
a bit off-topic from this another great post by Tim:
Martinez joined Aston Villa but before he asked for the last interview to have a proper goodbye with Arsenal fans.
What a class guy he is, a beautiful, well-thought and from the deepest area of his heart farewell. I am very happy to see him leave in glory. Hope he will succeed in Villa and become regular in the national team as well.
Well worth spending 8 minutes and watching this interview, available on Arsenal twitter and official website.