I have spent the last three days trying to write this and I have come to a few conclusions: it’s way too long and meandering. But there’s a good reason why: this is a season chock full of uncertainty.
When Wenger was manager we knew what we were going to get year in and year out. Transfers were so predictable that after Arsenal bought Petr Cech I was able to confidently say that our transfer business that year was done. Our playing style was predictable as well, because Wenger had a well-defined game plan. By the final season everyone in the League knew it as well. But it was so darned good that it took decades before even the small teams could pick it apart.
And this season, we are coming off the back of our worst ever finish as Arsenal supporters (since 1995!) with a new coach, who plays a very different style of football, and with a revamped corporate structure, which is all nestled inside the massive uncertainty of a global pandemic and climate collapse.
And none of that touches on the fact that the transfer window doesn’t close until four matches in, and any last-minute out-of-country transfers will need at least two weeks of quarantine (I think! I’m not even certain about that). It’s a 38 match season but we could potentially see a season defining signing not allowed to play until matchday 6 or 7. In fact, while Arsenal have 8 CBs we currently have something like 5 of them injured or unfit to start.
And what happens if a player gets COVID or several players get COVID? Right now, the League is basically saying “you will quarantine them and play with what you have” but if Aubameyang gets it, or Mane for example, in a crucial week? What then? In a normal season, you can use injury history as a fairly reliable way to guess whether a player will pick up injuries in the next season, but right now, it’s not even entirely a matter of personal discipline: Auba could get infected if Guendo goes out one night. Or worse, all the players could maintain great discipline and still get it from a partner who went shopping for essentials.
And what about the empty stadiums? Or travel to and from far away lands?
The question “where do you think Arsenal will finish this season?” is impossible to answer given all of the factors in play. And yet here I am giving you an answer as if things were all normal and I have a firm grasp on how things really are. I don’t.
Maybe I shouldn’t answer where I think they should finish but rather where I want them to finish.
For several years now I’ve been on the “lower your expectations” tour. The headlining band is “The Midfield Sucks” and their hit song is “Unmet Expectations”. This season I have decided to go upbeat and I’m picking “Arteta’s Right” as my headliner and their hit song “It’s going to take a few years (to get over you)”.
I’m not abandoning the previous tour – I still have lowered expectations! – but I’m just looking at the team we have, the money coming in, the uncertain financial situation, and the competition and saying “it’s ok if we don’t make top four this season.”
Arsenal have a lot of rebuilding to do. They have a squad full of young (too young) and very talented but raw players which they have combined with some very well established older stars. I think I see their plan here as one which has an eye to the future, about 5 years; where they use the older players to keep the club going in Europe, win a few trophies, and develop the young guys while the older ones get ready to play in Major League Soccer.
Again, I don’t know that for a fact and Arsenal haven’t said this is what they are doing but when I see the players we are buying seem to mostly be from those two spectrums, I can guess.
As for this season? Well, I just want to finish above Tottenham and I feel very sure that 5th place or better will do just that. Winning another trophy is also a priority and if I had my choice it’d be Europa League. Not to get us into the Champions League but to win a European Cup! Are you kidding me with any other reason? No one ever had an open-top bus parade for a positive cash flow situation.
I don’t have a lot of confidence that Arsenal will crack top four this season. There are a lot of very competitive teams (Wolves, Sheffield United, Everton) trying to get into the Champions League places but their main obstacle right now is that Chelsea, Man U, and Man City are going to pour in about half a billion dollars in transfers this season. Transfers don’t correlate as well to league places as salary but these were already strong teams who have or will strengthen in key areas.T
Just looking at transfer spend we are currently being out-spent by every team who finished above us, though that’s a bit misleading because Saliba’s spend was technically last year. Adding in Saliba to this year’s totals puts Arsenal just about 3rd or 4th place on the Summer Spend Trophy Table. As of yesterday, when I wrote this (we are now 5th).
But let’s be realistic for a minute: Chelsea have already dropped $245m on new players (Ziyech, Werner and Havertz) and are on the verge of adding Mendy (Rennes keeper) which could give them a massive boost. Werner scored 28 and assisted 8. Ziyech created 13 assists and Havertz scored 12 and gave 7 assists. Obviously you don’t know how well they will play together in a new division but good lord that’s a lot of offense. I’ve watched Timo Wenger now for a few years, he’s a generational talent. Genuinely not just a goalscorer and reminds me more of Thierry Henry than any player since (Henry is better, of course!). Chelsea finished 4th last season and I have to pick them to get into the top three – anything less will be seen as a huge failure by their owner. Interestingly Barry Glendenning thinks they will drop out of the top five and that Lampard will be sacked. Hey, if that happens then Arsenal have a chance of getting into top four. But that’s what it’s going to take to get into the top four this year and while I have my reservations about Lampard, they were third in the post-covid table and looked like a heck of team. Their real problem was keeper, which they seem to want to address.
Meanwhile Man City and Man U look poised to spend at a rate to rival Chelsea. Even without spending, I have to put Man City as my favorite to win the League this year. Their expected goal difference per game last season was +1.55. PER. GAME. And they are going to not only spend huge on Koulibaly but probably snaffle up another big name midfielder. I’m actually surprised they didn’t get Timo Werner. He’s a perfect Pep player.
But I also think Man U – especially if they buy Jadon Sancho – are going to stay in the top four. I know it’s not popular to say that Ole Gunnar is a pretty decent coach but they didn’t luck their way into the top of the table last season (they kind of bought their way in). And yes they won an absurd number of penalties last season but even sorting for non-penalty xGD they were third after the covid return.
The reality is that Man U are a good team with a lot of good players and even though Ole isn’t making them into some revolutionary side, he’s good enough to get them humming – or at least get them winning 30+ penalties. United have been linked to a metric ton of players and I expect them to spend big. I don’t think they are true title challengers but definitely top four.
That leaves Liverpool as my “vulnerable” team in the top four. I don’t think Liverpool will win the League this year and yet they are one of the strongest teams in the Premier League. I read a fascinatingly manic article on how Liverpool use caffeine and other legal stimulants to give their players a boost. Alan Moore, the author, says that Liverpool can’t win the League this year because they will allegedly be cycling off from alleged megadoses of caffeine. He also notes that 20 of the 33 players at Liverpool allegedly have asthma, which is quite incredible since that’s not anywhere near the average for normal people much less for top athletes who rely on endurance. Could they drop out of the top four?
I have to admit I had a few fantasies about that before realizing that would be too weird. Their post-covid form was incredibly bad and they won’t spend big but their main target seems to be Thiago with Wijnaldum supposedly going to dystopian Barcelona. I think their main focus this year is Europe and staying in top four and I feel fairly confident that they will stay in that top tier but they aren’t going to be anywhere near as good as they have been for the last two years. I feel like I would say the same if I were a Liverpool supporter.
Top four goes like this in my mind:
Man City
Chelsea
Man U
Liverpool
That’s probably a bummer if you’re an Arsenal supporter hoping that we will get back into that elite category. But I don’t see it as a bummer at all. I am as excited for this team as anyone and my main hope is to see the team gradually improve over the next two years. After all, Arsenal finished 8th last season. Finishing 5th or 6th and above Tottenham is an improvement.
To get there, Arsenal have totally revamped the spine of their defense. The Gunners’ main problem in defense has been mistakes – or more accurately, mistakes happen because the defenders are often over exposed on counters and in one-v-one situations.
To solve that, Arsenal have bought William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães at a total cost of over 50m. Saliba is the younger of the two and the least experienced. I expect Arteta to ease him into the side. Gabriel is the more “game ready” player and I think Arteta will want to start with him almost right away (apparently Tim Stillman thinks he may start this weekend).
One clue to my thinking is that Arteta wants a lefty playing LCB so much that we have not only purchased two of them (Pablo Mari and Gabriel) he also played Tierney there. Or there-ish.
This is another key to this season: get the lefties playing on the left in defense and midfield. In theory this should make their movements faster, their passing faster and more accurate, and their ability to react defensively quicker as well. Having a reliable starting CB on the left frees Arteta to play David Luiz on the right (or center with another CB on the far right).
And now that we have Pablo Mari and Gabriel Magalhães, Arteta has two options for LCB and that means Kieran Tierney can step out and get involved in buildup and attack. This is absolutely crucial. Arsenal’s buildup play was virtually non-existent and fullbacks/wingbacks are vital to modern attacking football. This is one of the most exciting aspects of this Arsenal season; seeing players like Tierney and Saka grow.
Obviously, Cpt. Obvious would point out that Arsenal have to sell off some CBs since we now have 8. Umm, yeah man. But I’m not getting into that because tactically I’m not too concerned about losing Holding, Chambo, Sokratis, or Mustafi. On a personal level I’ll be sad to see them leave but we can’t carry 8 CBs and none of them are tactically, physically, or technically undroppable players.
On a (right) side-note: Arsenal have been contacted several times over Bellerin and Maitland-Niles but from what I’ve read they aren’t going anywhere because no one seems willing to match our price. So, I expect them to stay at Arsenal and for Arteta to continue to refine and improve them. Soares was retained because he’s cheap and for his crossing and defense.
Arsenal have also added Willian to the team to give us a much needed boost to our offensive output. I accept the arguments that he’s too old, that he will drop production quickly, and so on. But Arsenal’s creativity last season had dried all the way up. And even if he drops off a bit in total production, Willian was a top 10 creative player last season and will add goals to this team from midfield. For me, this is a good signing for the money: Arsenal absolutely need goals from midfield. We cannot keep relying solely on Aubameyang scoring at a world-class rate. I’m not arguing about the Willian signing with anyone until the end of the season.
The big unknown is whether Arsenal will be able to add some players in midfield, some MFers. I like that we have signed Ceballos from a strictly on-field perspective. I think he could even be better this year than last year. But we have also been linked heavily to another very large price-tag MFer.
I’ve spent some time looking at the data for both Partey and Aouar and I have to admit that I’m underwhelmed. Don’t take this to mean that I know more than the club: I don’t. I’m just saying that I don’t understand why the club have seemingly identified these two pretty different players, neither of which add huge gains for the team. I will change my tune if Arsenal sign either player but for now, I just don’t think they give Arsenal the full value for the money being sought.
However, a big signing in midfield would be transformative for Arsenal. Getting in a generational talent like Cesc Fabregas or Patrick Vieira would put Arsenal into the top four. On the other hand, adding some more “middling” signings won’t boost the team that much.
Arteta spoke about Guendouzi today and it looks like we are keeping him this season. I have no problem with that. From a talent perspective it’s not even a question whether he’s good enough to start for Arsenal but as the Adidas commercial said the non-negotiables at Arsenal are Respect, Humility, and Belief. Guendouzi has self-belief but after shopping himself around and then being rejected by every top club this summer I hope he’s learned some respect and humility. He’s good but not too good to be at Arsenal and play and train the way that Arteta wants. If not, then he will go the way of Ozil, JNCOs, and the Dodo.
In attack, Arteta has a lot of work to do. Pepe has not reached the potential that many fans expected of him and it’s odd for such a high-profile signing to struggle to nail down a starting spot. I think some consistency in the right side of midfield and wingback will help. If not, we have a great insurance policy in the form of Willian, who loves playing on the right and created a ton of chances for teammates with his crosses last season (7th in the League).
I don’t mind that we play Auba on the left. He’s not a winger, though his crossing is a lot better than it was his first season, and because he’s extremely right-footed, playing on the left has opened up goals from distance for him, which he has taken to like relish to a hot dog. In front of him, or more aptly to his right, I think we will see Eddie Nketiah play a LOT this season. Arteta loves his pressing and all-action style. Plus I think there’s a world-class “false 9” possibly inside this player. I say that knowing full well that his dribbling’s not great, passing’s not great, and that I’m being left-field with this prediction. Maybe I’m wishcasting.
Overall, my big hope this season is that Arsenal transition from 343 to a 433. I don’t think it will happen on day one but as we get stronger over the season, I do think this is the game plan. Arteta will want to play just two CBs so that he can get another MFer in higher up the pitch. You can think of this like swapping a CB for Willian, Willock, Smith-Rowe, or even Ozil in the hole. So, for example, my perfect starting lineup – would be
Leno
Bellerin David Luiz Gabriel Tierney
Ceballos Xhaka
Willian
Pepe Aubameyang
Nketiah
Thi is a lineup that puts the most talent on the pitch, gives good balance of pressing and defense, has a creative midfielder with a real box-to-box guy and a DM who is mostly told to sit, plays a lot of lefties on the left in MF and defense, gives good movement on the wingbacks, and good passing from the CBs.
With the current squad, Arteta can also play a more defensive fullback on either side (or both) and if we get better midfielders such as Partey and Aouar then we have even more options.
Ok, I have to stop here. I had planned on writing even more – breaking down why Spurs and others won’t challenge Arsenal – but I’ve spent three days on this already and I am running out of steam. Everything takes longer for me to do these days, I don’t know why. That’s just how it is. Anyway, I hope I’ve given you something to think about ahead of the season. As always, see you in the comments.
This was a gift Tim, thank you for the time invested
Nice post, echoes many of my thoughts, in particular about Partey and Aouar. I’ll admit, I’d be very excited about Aouar, but at the price Lyon is demanding I don’t understand why we weren’t in the market for Van Der Beek. As for Partey, I keep hoping much of the noise is simply a smoke screen as we move for another number 6 type midfielder. Partey is underwhelming to me in terms of both stats and the eye test and at 27 I only see him plateauing in terms of skill/contribution while declining in price. Obviously, I’ll get behind either if they’re brought on board!
re The Beak.. a lot of times when a team gets a great player at that price, they have been laying the groundwork for that transfer (read: tapping up) for a few months. That’s what United did with van Persie and I suspect the same here. Teams with a great plan, great backing, who can offer both salaries and trophies are very attractive.
Van Der Sar is the director of football or whatever at Ajax and loves United, so I think nobody else was ever in the running for Van Der Beek
Yes, I agree that Man Utd likely tapped the Beak up quite some time ago, and I didn’t realize Van der Sar had such a prominent role at Ajax.
In truth, it looks like Arsenal might be doing the very same thing with Aouar, as there have supposedly been no other bids besides the initial cash and pouting French teen that Arsenal offered.
“No one ever had an open-top bus parade for a positive cash flow situation.”
Arsenal 2020-21 motivational tagline. 🙃
That is a massive piece Tim. Got about a third of the way through with a number of other thoughts I wanted to comment on– and realized… I’m at work (from home)! And have the weekend to revisit it.
Sorry it’s so long!
I’m actually happy it was, it’s like caffeine, I can easily read two in a day.
Thank you.
Seconded!
It had several engaging parts. The Pool/caffeine/asthma aspect is both intriguing and– actually have some insights I hope to share.
Will probably circle back tomorrow afternoon.
You and the folk from arseblog make Arsenal a club even better for supporters.
Thank you!
Great insight and balance of intuition and stats. This was very satisfying to read. Scott’s alright but I absolutely miss you on Arseblog’s ByThe Numbers. Looking forward.
Great article Tim, as always!!
The doping article raised my curiosity though.
As you hyperlinked the article you mentioned it’s “caffeine and other legal stimulants”.
But reading that article the guy nearly accusses them –
” In concluding the academic article, I pointed out that no Liverpool players have failed tests. I am not alleging any wrongdoing on their part. Nor am I intimating that they’re all on the juice. I’ve simply studied the support systems, those involved and what’s needed to achieve what they have achieved.”
Is it just me misunderstanding or is there really a hint of wrongdoing on Liverpool part?
A lot to unpack in that article.
First off that guy is a Russian correspondent. If anyone knows about doping programs…
Second, he references the Leicester season they won the league and I remember the Leicester season very well. It was completely crazy to me that Vardy was openly taking puffs off an inhaler. I commented on twitter and was told that it’s not performance enhancing. But I know that’s just plain wrong because when I was a smoker and played soccer I used an inhaler and it was absolutely performance enhancing.
The pre-match caffeine thing is odd. My reading of what Moore is suggesting (and I am totally reading between the lines so I could be wrong) is that there are players who are routinely megadosing on caffeine. Vardy was pretty open that he drank three cans of red bull before every match (spaced out from breakfast to the game) which seems like a lot but it’s only the same as four cups of coffee which I used to drink on the regular. It’s also well known that N’Golo Kante had a pre-match cup of coffee as do a LOT of players. I’m not sure I’d consider it megadosing to have a cuppa. I think Moore’s suggesting that clubs like Liverpool and Leicester are actually giving out caffeine pills or using one of the MANY legal stimulants on the WADA list and possibly that a lot of players are using nicotine. Which isn’t illegal but is definitely intended to improve performance.
As for the fact that 60% of them have asthma — well, one treatment for asthma is (inhaled) steroids which is allowed by WADA. Interestingly, WADA also says that a lot of athletes who train for endurance sports tend to develop asthma and sports-related asthma and that they allow (inhaled) glucocorticoids.
The cycling team Sky was certainly sailing close to the wind with ‘therapeutic use exemptions’ for salbutimol with some of their riders, in particular tour de France winner Bradley Wiggins. His asthma treatments always seemed to coincide with the big hill stages that tend to decide the overall winner. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if other sports teams were cottoning on…
Hats off to you Tim for effort. You nailed it in paragraph one. I think 6th behind the usual suspects plus Spvrs is realistic. Why?
1) Pretty much our personnel are unchanged, certainly no newcomers you could expect to influence games immediately;
2) We’ve yet to resolve the fact that our midfield is dreadful. Are we going to see better performances from Guen, Xhaka or Ozil this season? I’m not optimistic;
3) And this is the crux – our gameplan only works when we’re allowed to counter attack. That’s just not going to cut it across a season. When Arteta has tried to get us playing free flowing football such as versus Watford we’ve looked terrible. Transitioning from a defence-first to attack-first style will be the key to cracking Top 4. And yes it’s early days but Arteta has yet to demonstrate he can do it with these players.
I doubt Liverpool will finish below 2nd place, they have the best keeper in the league in Allison, the best defense and defender in Virgil, the most consistent midfielders not to mention Their attack – Salah/Firmino/Mane, guaranteed at least 50 goals a season, best coach etc, the list goes on and on
.
Liverpool WILL NOT end up outside the top 4, almost impossible
Great article, but I cannot state how much I disagree with your prediction concerning Liverpool, this is coming from an arsenal fan.
Tim, good analysis, but the question is where does saka slot in?
It really is such a difficult season to predict, for all the reasons you laid out. I’m also thinking 5th or 6th would good or even about right given where we’re at as a club. I just have this funny feeling (call it wishful thinking) that one or both of Chelsea or/and United will be found out in some way. Yes, they’ll both have a ton of talent, but we’ve seen what happens when a collection of prized players begin to lose faith in their manager for personal or tactical reasons (remember the Leicester year what happened with City, Chelsea, United). I think this is the year that Lampard and OGS run out of luck in terms of how they set up and motivate their sides. To me, they both just seem like such average managers.
Who knows, right? But I can dream!
As for Spurs…oh how I wish Mourinho’s third season comes a year early! They’ve also got a small squad without much investment. I really hope Joe Hart actually plays games for them.
It would be really interesting to know what Arteta really thinks about the players . I’m sure every manager has to play some players they’d rather not because they are all he has for a particular position in his system . If given free hand , how many of our first 11 would he dump for similarly prized players elsewhere I wonder.
One aspect of the COVID situation is that the virus leaves behind some permanent damage to the lungs (bradykinin ) and heart (cardiomyopathy) . One study found that marathon runners lose like 10% of their stamina (can’t be too sure of the numbers) . Which is the kind of thing that would affect footballers a lot considering their intense sprints and long distances covered in 90mins . Factoring in the age difference of covid targets (older have it worse in general) I wonder how player performances would change based on their covid history
A valid point. The woman who lives next door to me was infected in March. It’s now September and she can still barely get to the end of the street, without help from her husband. She’s in her 30s.
Interesting to see that Tim has studiously avoided mentioned Lacazette! Like the rest of us, does that simply indicate he doesn’t know what to do with him?
Mentioning.
We’re living through the scariest s$&t since the Cold War follow your teachers instructions and duck-under-your-desks when you hear the nuclear alert warnings.
Which is why I welcome the madness of another Arsenal season. I have an uneasy feeling that it’s going to get interrupted and/or cancelled again but until it does, I’m going to fake like everything’s normal despite the empty venues and the fact that we still wipe our groceries with Lysol even “THEY” say it’s unnecessary. Thank you Tim, for being a constant blogging North Star to follow in a crazy, crazy world. I hope you don’t have to evacuate your home as the world burns around you. Peace and as always, C.Y.O.G!!!
Great season preview,
Reasons to be hopeful for Arsenal fans,a healthy dose of realism too.Finishing above Spurs would be great.I also think 5th/6th most likely.
It’s interesting that most pundits (and bookies) have Liverpool second favourites to win the League.
Anyway over the last few months I’ve read a lot, including re-discovering one of my favourites Arthur Conan Doyle,I’ve read a biography of him,turns out he was quite the visionary and humanitarian.Some of his quotes reminded me of you Tim :
It is a capital mistake to theorise before one has data.Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories,instead of theories to suit facts.
Another which made me laugh : You see but you do not observe.
My personal favourite: There is nothing more deceptive than an obvious fact.
Thanks Tim COYG
A masterful preview and analysis. Best on the internet, bar none. Thank you Tim. Carry on the great work and stay safe!
no martinez in the side…intriguing.
And why start Elneny?
And why start Elneny? I really our 3rd kit. Sharp, stylish.
Hi Tim – thanks so much for this.
Good writing is never too long.
Just curious, but do you have a sense of points we might finish with?
I know its a fool’s errand to predict but just curious (I have a nagging feeling you wrote a diatribe on predicting points but can’t remember!).
anyway, as pointless as it is, 79
😉
we really appreciate your efforts, tim.
i really like elneny. a few months back, i mentioned that he could still feature for arsenal and, possibly, be the #6 that allows arsenal to transition to a back 4 again. i really respect the fact that he went on loan, not just to play, but to regain his top form in order to prove himself at arsenal. that’s as honorable as anything i’ve ever heard of from a millionaire footballer. he’s never wanted to leave arsenal. likewise, all the players seem to like him. he’s proven that, at his best, he can be an asset to the arsenal midfield.
likewise, lacazette is absolutely undroppable. it’s fine to rotate him with eddie for eddie’s development. i expect arteta to continue what he did initially with starting one guy one game then the other the next but neither player ever plays the full 90. as far as who’s the better player, it’s not even close. lacazette has a guile that you simply can’t teach. it’s a similar situation at man city with aguero and gabriel.
gabriel, of the arsenal mold, was given motm honors by nbc but he’ll have to adapt to the speed and work rate of bpl players. he looked good this morning.
the decision to play willian was interesting initially. however, before kickoff, i thought about it and concluded that it was a great call and his signing was very astute. sure, he’s on £100k a week but if you factor in a transfer fee, arsenal still got over. pepe true value is that he can really strike a dead ball but so can willian. however, unlike pepe, willian doesn’t hold the ball so long, which makes arsenal’s attack faster and more fluid. good performance, credited with two “questionable” assists and striking the goal frame. good win.
I thought Willian slotted right in and showed us all the things we’ve been missing for at least a couple of years in AM positions with his experience, quality, link play and decision-making with the ball, and his work-rate and availability for a pass without it. He looked like he enjoyed having a bigger role as well, coming inside and orchestrating attacks instead of his limited role at Chelsea, stuck out on the wing, counterattacking and slinging in crosses all day. Good player.
Gabriel looks a steal.
Just curious: why do you consider those assists questionable? The pass to Auba in particular was fabulous, and while there was plenty of work to do, Willian still made the chance.
the way assists were originally granted is they were only credited to a player that truly created the scoring chance. simply passing the ball to the scorer is by convention, considered an assist today. but in the true spirit of playmaking, before assists were even considered in football, an assist was only awarded to a player that pretty much laid it on a platter for the scorer.
historically, plays like auba’s goal yesterday were considered unassisted, as he still had so much work to do. as you stated, it was a brilliant tactical pass from willian. likewise, the assist was clear on gabriel’s goal.
We have improved, we have held our own, we look solid and together, we play with a plan and with belief, we have excellent players who look like they are starting to express themselves… on paper our squad comes in 5th or 6th but I genuinely feel like Arteta is going to be the added value, like Wenger used to be, in terms of ensuring that we punch above our weight. I am optimistic.
Man City will be in the top 2 unless something shocking happens. I don’t have Liverpool going from 1st to 4th. Can’t see it.
Chelsea’s array of attacking talent is scary but they are suspect at the back. I put them (just) behind Pool in 3rd.
Man U are very good but … I dunno, gut says that Ole will make mistakes and I just don’t believe in that team. So Man U should be our target, and if we don’t beat them we should be 5th, except…
Everton and Ancelotti have bought very well with Rodriguez, Allan and Doucoure. I expect Richarlison to score a lot of goals this year. Other teams who finished above us last year have improved, except Leicester and Spurs who I think might drop back into the pack.
The other part is that lots of the teams who finished below us have also improved, and Leeds won’t finish in the bottom three. I think it will be harder this year to take points off the smaller clubs. Wide open.
‘… but I genuinely feel like Arteta is going to be the added value…’
Mikel was the glue that we used to move from weak-kneed to competitive between December and March– by dint of his sheer-willing a tentative XI to play to their capability at that time.
The lockdown, once the C-19 protocols were determined and followed (and Arteta recovering!)– effectively became a preseason training camp for the new boss.
Since Project Restart? Mikel took Unai Emery’s seriously underperforming team to playing above what was thought their collective ability– also instilling an overachieving mentality immediately.
Arteta himself is enjoying some revelatory moments– in his own evaluations of AMN, Rob Holding, and even Mo Elneny. Not that MA was wrong about them in his initial perspective. Just that each of those players has begun to show their capabilities under Arteta’s management.
Here’s to the joy of– seeing if Arteta can maintain what he’s begun– over an entire year.
MA8 has worked wonders with Mustafi, AMN and Xhaka and I too expect him to do so with Elneny and some others who had suffered a loss of form, confience and career development under his confusing fellow Basque predecessor. Could MA8 even develop a midfield enforcer from the group of players that we already have? I doubt it but I wouldn’t rule it out.
Things I never thought I’d type a year ago:
Elneny was excellent.
We have a central defense.
Willian was Arsenal’s man of the match.
Arsenal looked extremely well-organized out of possession.
(They’ll say there are sterner tests to come, but these are the sorts of teams we struggled against last season; Fulham were extremely motivated, and played very well, I thought.)
Oh, and:
Holding, like a Brazilian showboater, cut through two lines of opposition ranks without letting the ball touch the grass.
ha! that was cute.
Both he and the team smiling wide for a minute in the run-up to the corner. 😁
Exactly this!
Was fortunate to have had a very long athletic career. After playing several US sports in HS/college, played Open Division Ultimate for 19yrs, at a national level for about 10yrs. Was asthmatic during that entire span. Severe enough after I hung up my cleats, to have been ER- and ICU-treated on two occasions where odds were against my surviving. While playing, I used an Albuterol inhaler usually before warm-up prior to a day’s tournament play– and I was good almost all day unless I had a lengthy cool-down between scheduled games. After Ultimate, played old-guy BBall for the next 5yrs. Found a year-round Senior Softball league (50+) a couple years later. Then paid a big price for decades of seriously pounding my body hard. Diagnosed with severe rheumatoid arthritis. With pain so crippling I could not walk without assistance. Had both my hip joints replaced 4wks apart about 7yrs back. One of the meds I began taking to promote quicker healing of the large stapled incisions– was massive doses of Prednisone (10mg 3x daily). Enough to emulate road rage 24/7 for months.
Massive self-rehab job physically over 18-months at age 56. Continuing with lower-dosages of Prednisone daily (2.5mg 3x daily). My asthma became remissive. Became able to run again. Rehabbed well enough to start back at softball at the same competitive level. Convinced my GP to allow me to continue on the low-dose Prednisone regimen to control my asthma, in place of inhalers, tablets and nebulizers. Now 7yrs on, the asthma is still in check. Do still deal with a pair of immuno-compromising conditions (RA, UC) for which I now take a cocktail of an inhibitor, pain medication, a corticosteroid, and supplements 3x daily. Prednisone in that mix.
Prednisone is considered a glucocorticoid, prohibited by WADA, which requires a therapeutic use exemption for athletes.
In considering what regimen may be in play at Liverpool? Might hazard a combo of glucocorticoids delivered in more than one method and in differing doses. A Prednisone 2.5mg tablet 20 minutes before kickoff would be energizing. Another at halftime would guarantee enough of a BP spike to endure another 45-minutes.
Every 3yrs I have a bone density imaging scan performed to measure whether my bones are being hollowed or made brittle by continuous use of the medication. The condition is known as shadow bones. Long-term liver damage is a major concern as well.
Perhaps why Liverpool are backing off from whatever regimen they may have had in place. Weening from a steroid like Prednisone requires small reductions in dosage. Over an extended period of time. In order to avoid debilitating withdrawal symptoms similar to that of narcotic addiction. If I chose to stop taking Prednisone after 7yrs? Best guess? 5-6 months to avoid serious after effects. Hating it the whole time. And after. Prednisone is a hell of a drug– to borrow a coin from Rick James.
Then I’m a bit amused thinking: Maybe that’s why Jordan Henderson can run all day. And, always on the edge of raving mad at everything on-pitch too. 😮
My 2p/2¢. What it’s worth.
Wow, I appreciate this comment. Sorry it got stuck in moderation. It feels like the filter thought you were selling us something!
Hey thanks! Just so you know– I had this comment idea in mind even before having a chance to read the article you linked to regarding Pool and over-caffeination.
If 20 of 33 players at Pool are asthmatic (those odds are astronomical)? And on a Prednisone regimen? Knowing they had a short Summer to ready for this current season kickoff? Then– the Project Restart time-frame could have been the expected or scheduled ‘step-down’ period from the medication. Thinking Pool were almost certain PL champs anyway– needing just 3pts to guarantee? Could explain why they were ‘mostly mortal’ to close out the season.
From one who knows that drug too well– the Liverpool puzzle pieces fit really well too.
Again my 2p/2¢.
Tim– was wondering if or what the Askimet filter is choking on– in the lengthy comment I’m trying to post?
Thanks in advance.
(The longer one from early-morning 2:30am CDT)
Leeds lost in the end vs. Liverpool today but they look a handful for any team in this league.
leeds are a fun team to watch but man, they’ll give up a lot of goals. they throw so many bodies forward. signing rodrigo will prove to be a fantastic move, despite him blowing the game today. it would have been nice if they could have held on for a draw.
it was cute seeing harrison from the patrick vieira nycfc team get a goal. i always liked him during his mls stint.
as for the original topic, i think arteta is worth about an extra dozen or so points…much more than the likes of ole or frank. as a result, i think arsenal will finish in the top 4 and likely ahead of both man united and chelsea. the goal should always be to win the championship but arsenal may need a bit more talent to compete with liverpool and man city, who have clearly raised the bar. with that, leicester city won the league with less than what arsenal have now. we’ll see.
Not a fan of Elneny’s before he went on loan. Soft, safe, and did that false press thing Mesut did as well, without actually putting in a tackle or meaningful pressure. But he has had a very good albeit short pre-season, and played well yesterday. Has turkey improved him? Let’s hope so. I dunno, but since Vieira left, we’ve been longing for that elegant beast in the middle of park. Perhaps, to Tim’s point, that’s why we are bigging up Partey? Let’s see how that one plays out. One of Arteta’s gifts seems to be maximising value in some players, such as Xhaka and Elneny, so we may not get all the targets that the fans are thirsting after.
Willian showed the virtue of bringing in new players who are ready from Day 1. Remember how Pepe struggled at the start? I dont care how good you were in League X… you need time to adapt. And time spent adapting is potentially points lost for your team. That said, how do you explain the performance of Gabriel II yesterday?
Where will we finish? I dont know, but I am confident that Arteta won’t be 20 points behind the league leaders by Christmas.
Chelsea does look tasty, I agree. And with all their new arrivals we forgot to mention their No 10, who looks ready to light up this league. He will make a large section of Tim’s blogbase very proud indeed 🙂
The thing I most like about Arteta’s Arsenal is that we are harder to beat, and I’ll take that. Even Robinho Holding is showing new skills. I am glad that he and AMN look likely to stay, because I’d prefer to see as large a British core at Arsenal as possible. Congrats to AMN for breaking through to the English squad. Let’s hope that Saka gets enough game time to do the same.
lol @ “has turkey (small T) improved him?”
Christmas came early? 🙂 I look forward to getting pummeled by Bun on that one.
Were Liverpool FC first founded to provide a sporting opportunity for asthmatics? That’s the only credible explanation for such a high incidence of asthmatics in the squad. Unless it’s a doping policy . I wonder whether anyone knows what the incidence of asthmatics was at Dortmund FC?
Only two teams are marginally better than the Arsenal. Man city and Liverpool.
3rd is ours.
I like your extreme optimism.
Top 4 this season, league title next. That’s been what I want Arsenal to target.
William, who played really well and didn’t look out of place at all, said Arteta wanted to win the CL in 3 years. I guess I was on the right track then.
Doping is surely an open secret in football. Wenger said as much (uefa tried to silence him) My gut feeling, about a year after the fact, was Buvac left Klopp over this. The article seemingly confirms it.
Man city will be the favourites but I wonder when Pep will go the Jose way and become more a meme than a manger. Plus like PSG, the obsession with winning the CL might start to weigh on them. Could affect their league form.
For Arsenal, our young players will be very important. If they develop well during the season, they give us more than the money we spend on them.
How many points do we think will secure top 4 this season? 75? Or less?
winning the CL in 3 years is crazy.
There are 6-8 teams spending big to get into the top four. A major reason why Arsene was able to do it for all those years was a weakness in Tottenham and Liverpool. We would have to be incredibly consistent and I just didn’t see that in the lockdown reboot.
Anyway, if the top 4 pattern continues it should swing back to 75 points for 4th.