Good morning! It was hot here in Tacoma last night, hot and still, so that the warm air pressed down on me like a giant comforter. Except it was not comforting, so more like a giant un-comforter. Plus, we had some giant jerk in the neighborhood throwing M-80s off every 30 minutes or so after about 11pm. That was super cool. That’s the kind of delightful prank that makes me want to find out who it was and have my dog take a dump near their car door every day for a year. Pork Chop would do it too. She loves pooping near car doors.
On an Arsenal topic… I was thinking about Arsenal re-signing Danny Ceballos. I haven’t changed my mind on him since last season: I still think he’s better higher up the pitch than we play him and I also think it’s incredibly dumb for a club like Arsenal to take players on loan without an option to buy at the end of the season. I just don’t like the idea of taking a player on loan, improving him, and making him either more attractive to play for Real Madrid or more attractive for folks wanting to buy him from Real Madrid. I do know that he has a buy out clause (I believe all La Liga players have them, it’s a requirement) and I suppose Arsenal feel like that’s the price they would be willing to pay for him but it still feels icky to take him on loan.
Not that he’s a bad player! In fact, looking at last season’s stats you can see why Arsenal wanted him back:
- 1.6 – 1st in passes into the penalty area per90 (if I say “leads” I generally drop players with less than 10 90s)
- 6.49 – 3rd in progressive passing* per90
- 1.54 – 3rd in key passes per90
- 6.38 – 3rd in passes into the final 1/3 per90
- 295 – 2nd among Arsenal MFers in progressive passing yards per90
- 58 – 1st in completed passes per90
- 2.61 – 2nd in tackles per90
- 2.4 – Though sadly he’s also our most dribbled-past player per90 and has one of the worst tackle % against dribbles with just 27% (Ozil is worst at 10%)
- 24 – Presses per90 which is 2nd behind Torreira and leads the team in successful pressures per90 with 6.38
- 10.5 – 2nd on the team in pressures in defense per90
- 1.6 – 3rd in interceptions
- 4.2 – 2nd in tackles + interceptions
- 79 – 2nd in touches per90
- 47 – leads the team in touches in the middle 1/3
- 213 – leads the team in yards carried per90 (396) and in progressive distance carried
So, I think you can see why we were eager to keep him. But why, then, not just buy him outright?
Well, the obvious answer is that we are looking to spend a big chunk on another MFer. The Orn and others (more recently reliable) are reporting that Arsenal have it hard for Thomas Partey and Houssem Aouar. And if so, both players will require quite a bit of money to prize away from their respective teams. Money that Arsenal don’t have until we sell a number of players. Which makes the rumors that we will get 8m for Torreira this summer (and 16m next), along with suggestions that we are willing to let Maitland-Niles go for a fee of around 30m, plus moving Sokratis and Bobby Sacramento, all make sense. Oh yeah, plus Guendouzi – it’s odd I haven’t seen anything reliably mooted that he’s on his way out. I don’t read those utter trash twitter accounts so when I say “reliable” I mean basically I read it on the Guardian or Arseblog.
And here’s the thing: Arsenal need another MFer because, and this isn’t going to set well with some, but while Ceballos/Xhaka were pretty good for us last year, we were dreadful as a team in terms of getting the ball forward.
Arsenal were 9th in progressive passes, 9th in progressive yards passing, 7th in passes into the final 1/3, 6th in passes into the penalty area, 13th in expected assists, 16th in key passes ..SIXTEENTH IN KEY PASSES.. and 15th in shot creating actions per90. We need players – plural – who can improve our midfield and help Arsenal get the ball forward.
When you look at the teams who are best at getting the ball forward – Liverpool and Man City – they have at least one star player – Trent Alexander-Arnold, Kevin de Bruyne – but also multiple players who simply blow Arsenal’s doors off in terms of progressive passing. TA-A averages 13 progressive passes per90. That’s double the rate of Ceballos. De Bruyne averages 11, Zincheko 10, Robertson nearly 10, Mendy nearly 10, and so on.
Yes, those are wide players and actually fullbacks are a huge key to this issue. Modern fullbacks help build play by acting like a wide midfielder used to back in the days. This was actually a feature of Wenger’s Arsenal. People hated on Gael Clichy but he was huge in helping Arsenal build up play and get the ball into the opposition final 1/3 and penalty box. Same with Sagna (I think people hated him less). It’s one of the many ways that Arsene Wenger modernized football.
And in Wenger’s final season, Arsenal were significantly better at getting the ball forward: we were 4th in progressive passing in Wenger’s final season and Ozil led the team with 11 progressive passes per90, Xhaka had 9.53 and Bellerin was 3rd on the team in total progressive passes that season. And Monreal was 3rd on the team in final 1/3 entry passes.
I do think that this is one reason why Arteta wanted Soares. His progressive passing is decent, his crossing is good, and he gets the ball into the penalty box. I’m not saying that Arteta is trying to fill out these stats, rather that the stats match the type of player that Arsenal need.
Anyway, I don’t know who Arsenal are going to buy this summer and don’t much care. I feel like we are still several steps away from building a team with players who can put up the kind of numbers we need to get the ball forward and that this summer is just the first of what are probably three or even four steps to get back into the top four.
*Progressive passing is a very specific stat: it’s a measure of completed passes that move the ball at least 10 yards forward (but excluding forward passes from the team’s pown defensive 40%) and/or completed passes into the penalty area.
Those stats are shocking to say the least. How could we be so bad? 16th in key passes! It makes it all the more shocking that Ozil was ignored for large part of the season. Even if Partey comes in, it looks like a difficult situation , that how bad things are…
Presumably bcos our poor quality midfield has been unable to move the ball forward effectively to the attackers. That was Cazorla’s job, then Ozil’s, now nobody does it.
How do our stats stack up pre and post arteta? One of the striking features of Emery ball was that there was a lot of ball carrying/counterattacking and less possession build up.
I think it most likely is the same, especially the attacking stats. Our xG is pretty terrible, even under Arteta. I think if it wasn’t for Aubameyang and our 2 goalkeepers, we would have been close to the relegation spot
I do find it a bit weird that we prioritised a CB when our MF is so clearly under-gunned. But I’m guessing it was just the deal that was ready to get done.
Rumors of Ozil’s reintroduction blow the whole thing wide open again… Number 10 or on the left? Back four? 433? I mean if we can get him firing and well integrated he could drastically improve our ball progression… I can even see Ceballos with his improved defensive work as a solid number 8 in the engine room behind him… Next to Partey?
When you have such a suboptimal midfield there are so many ways it could be improved and none of them look very likely
Pleasantly surprised to see a post.
It would be awesome if we do manage to get both Partey and Aouar.
Its our midfield that worries me. I think we’ll have to part with an asset like Lacazette to raise funds for the midfield.
Those numbers don’t surprise me in the least. They fit with the crap I watched week in – week out this season until lockdown: an inability to build through the midfield, an inability to put a bthrough ball into the box and an inability to make chances for our strikers culminating in an appalling drop in our shots on goal. I honestly don’t see the return of Ozil to the fold as the solution to these problems unless Ozil 2020-21 has transformed himself into Ozil circa 5 years ago.
I don’t know if Partey is the messiah/Vieira Mk 2 that many claim. It does seem that the club can’t see past him and there is no Plan B. Given our financial travails and the lack of buyers for the players we deem unfit for purpose (quelle surprise!), I would be astonished if we got him AND Aouar this summer but more creativity is certainly desperately required in that department and I’m not convinced that Partey is the complete solution to our MF issues.
It does seem that we will have to stomach the sale of someone many of us would rather keep if we are to raise the cash to improve the midfield. We may need to take a leaf out of the chess handbook and be prepared to sacrifice a bishop and perhaps also a knight to take a rook and perhaps a queen (No Nasri jokes). Move on. Win the game.
Partey’s numbers, Aouar’s numbers, they all look rather weak. Though I will say that both of them are superior dribblers to what we currently have which is what makes them attractive to a lot of people. People seem to think that the best way to break a press is to dribble, which is odd because neither Liverpool nor Man City have CM midfield dribblers.
Horrors! That gives me flashbacks to Hleb, the world’s dribbliest dribbler (along with one Ian Scanlon of my boyhood club Aberdeen who would go back with the ball to beat the full back again rather than put in the cross or cut-back). I found Hleb to be one of our most frustrating players of all time because of his inability to take on the shot if he succeeded in making his way right through the opposition defence on his perambulation (he makes Ozil look like dead eye Dick!) or to give a hospital pass at the end of his dribble.
We need a disruptor who can shield the back four and find Ceballos or A.N. Other with a simple pass to turn defence into attack. IMHO, if you’re not Santi Cazorla you shouldn’t be dribbling half-way inside your own half!
Watched Xhaka against Germany and wondered why he doesnt progress the ball like he did against them.
He was absolutely immense,spraying passes and making Kroos look like a learner.
I believe the players we have can definitely do better than these numbers this season even if we dont buy anyone.
And i dont buy into the Partey hype
What’s interesting is that Arteta seems to have decided that Xhaka shouldn’t be the main man on the ball and has reduced his on-field contributions. This was especially true after the restart. Will be curious to see what Arteta does with him this season but the plain fact is that he needs a LOT of the ball to be effective and that typically means playing him as the lone MFer or deepest playmaker, which then exposes his defensive weaknesses and poor touch, especially in the PL. But then playing a back three with two MFers, one who really doesn’t do a whole lot, is part of the problem with Arsenal’s attack. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arteta wants to build more through the wingbacks.
agreed, tim. i believe that arteta, unlike wenger and emery, has recognized that xhaka is not a viable option as the deepest center midfield player in the defensive phase of play and has relieved him of that duty. this has seen xhaka’s number of touches reduced and his ball-progressing influence diminished. i’m okay with that as he’s not exposed as much defensively. i hope you understand that, k9ine. the downside is arsenal have to play with 3 central defenders and are forced to play with one less central midfield player.
likewise, i don’t understand the belief that you have to be a great dribbler to beat a press. typically, the ability to move the ball quickly and effectively defeats the press; oponents get tired of working hard to get the ball and never getting close enough to make a difference. sure, santi dribbled out but what other cdm have you ever seen do that? so often, people will see a player at cdm with certain qualities and believe those qualities are requirements to play the position well. the primary requirement to be a good cdm is you have to be one of the smartest players on the field. if you’re smarter than everyone else, you’ll use whatever technical gifts you possess to do what the game requires, hence making you an effective cdm. everyone has their skill set.
a few other things.
first, in the swiss’ game against germany, the germans are clearly not the same team under joachim löw that they were under klinsmann. löw’s approach is difficult to accept as viable. i can scarcely understand what he’s trying to do.
second, since xhaka’s arrival, arsenal have failed to qualify for the champions league.
third, since xhaka’s arrival, we’ve seen the marginalization of mesut ozil. people gripe about his lack of defending but he’s never been a great defender. xhaka at cdm has completely thrown the balance of the team off in so many ways. it’s not his fault, it’s arsenal’s fault.
Tim
The last 3 comments I tried to post went into the moderation bin and then disappeared so I assume you have decided to block me from posting. I could understand if I had been profane or disrespectful of your or other commenters but I don’t think that is the case. I am not sure what I did wrong other then express a different way of thinking and disagreeing with some of the ideas that had become conventional wisdom for you and some of the regulars. Having some different ideas would seem to me to be a good thing for a sports blog. I realize that I repeated a lot of my ideas, sometimes to a fault. However, everyone repeats things because there is only so many things to talk about on a football blog. How many hundreds and hundreds of times did you and the rest of our commenters remark about how bad Emery was and no one was upset by that repetition. The real difference was the ideas that I frequently repeated sometimes conflicted with conventional wisdom.
The bottom line is this is your blog and you spend the time and effort to write these posts and you do it without any tangible benefit to yourself. I think everyone who reads your blog really appreciates what you do, myself included. Since it is your blog you can do whatever you want and block anyone for any reason. You are an excellent writer and I wish you all the success in everything you do. Thanks again for doing this blog. Stay safe and keep posting.
Bill,
You’re right. I pay to keep this site going plus I put in thousands of hours a year in research and writing. So yeah, I’ll ban whomever I want.
I’ve spoken at length about this with you here. The main problem as I see it is that you’re not trying to engage in dialog. A lot of us did repeat ourselves over Emery but we were – as I read the comments and conversations – almost all at least listening to each other and moving our opinions somewhat.
There is a real back and forth among people in the comments section here which is something I truly value. I learn more about football from the commentary here on this blog than almost anywhere else. I trust the people here to be thoughtful with their responses, mostly. It’s a lot like what you would get if you and 10-15 of your friends all went to the pub before a match: not everyone is going to agree, but no one is just going to say the same thing (stats suck stats suck stats suck) over and over and over ad nauseum.
Different ideas are welcome, saying the same simplistic idea over and over to the point where even I get tired of it is not. Look, unlike almost any other forum, when you write something here, you are in a weird way forcing me to read your comment. It’s my site, and I’m the moderator. I almost have to at least skim every comment and most of them I end up reading.
If this was Twitter, I’d mute you for a while because for whatever reason you’re stuck on a singular idea and I’m tired of having to listen to it. I tried that here with moderation but sadly I don’t have the “mute” option except to moderate comments. Unlike twitter, I’m damned if I mute and damned if I don’t because I see your comments either way and read them anyway.
I have literally begged you: stop saying “stats suck, coaching doesn’t matter, and the only way to win anything is to buy better players”. I have asked you to be more nuanced and try to listen to other ideas: try to critique the specific reasons why a specific stat might not work, etc.
At this point I don’t know what to do. I’m just tired of it. Maybe this whole blogging thing is dead.
I think we’re going so hard for Partey and Aouar because of athleticism. There are many ways to progress the ball up the field but being confined to one or two isn’t cool.
What has frustrated me over the years is how scared we look in midfield. All our mfers hid through fear of being bundled off the ball and as a consequence our defenders became more risk averse when passing. Dribbling is great, (hleb, iwobe etc…) but for me, being able to shield the ball consistently well is what we have been lacking for some time. Said ability opens the door for many other things, you don’t have to be a great dribbler if you can shield correctly. You’ll also have better lanes for progressive passing given others are doing their job.
Watching Saliba high up the pitch on the left recently, using his strength to bully the opposition then calmly passing infield is exactly what I wanna see. I feel currently Mikel is doing what is long overdue, filling the team with players who can keep the ball. Who do trust to do that right now? not many.
I would think the first criteria for shielding the ball would be to have a great balance.
Funny you should say that, this year I got back into roller blading. Got my two boys into it as well hoping to increase their overall physicality. What was noticeable at the very start was how my balance wasn’t as good as I thought and my muscle groups in those areas lacked training. Going forwards I believe my boys will have an advantage if they do pursue football, given they continue the blading for a sustained period.
I’m rarely jealous of other clubs’ transfer successes, especially the clubs like Chelsea who are in a different financial league – but if we had signed the 3 players Everton have signed – Allan, Doucoure and Rodriguez, it would have sorted us out completely.
ha! i’ve gone on for the past couple of years about how much i’d love to see doucoure in an arsenal shirt. is partey that much better than him…and for that money? doucoure has premier league experience, is younger than partey, has proven effective both as a #6 and a #8, he’s a third of the price of partey, and he’s a fighter. it’s a shame arsenal didn’t get him, as he’s an arsenal fan and i’m sure he would have loved the opportunity to don that shirt.
big up to ancelotti and what everton are doing. that actually tried really hard to sign the new arsenal defender, gabriel, too…but he wanted to play for arsenal.
Thumbs up from me on Doucoure. Been singing that note for a year.
Doucoure? Was he the bloke they got from Watford? Arsenal must have known about him. The Watford training ground is right next door to Arsenal’s. All they’d have to do is look over the fence.
yeah it’s an odd one for sure.