Being an Arsenal fan on twitter is a lesson in extreme patience building. It doesn’t matter how many of the “ITKs” you mute; it doesn’t matter how many of those “news” twitter accounts you block; it doesn’t matter how many words you mute or how often you carefully tell Twitter’s algorithm to silence certain types of tweets; you will get news about Arsenal transfers both real and imagined. And so it came to pass that despite all of my most earnest attempts to shield myself from any transfer news, I learned this morning that Arsenal are on the verge of signing Lille center back Gabriel dos Santos Magalhães for £27m. Ok, well, I learned it by reading the Guardian, which is what us old people do: we read newspapers.
As I like to do, I went out and had a look at Gabriel’s stats to see what kind of player Arsenal are getting and here’s my short report: very left-footed, very good passing (especially for a 22/23 year old) numbers, and very good defending numbers.
I used “numbers” above because I haven’t ever watched him play actual football. I don’t get Ligue Un matches here at home, probably wouldn’t watch them if I did, and I also can’t say that I remember him from any of the European cups either. So this is data raw and uncut. Take it as such.
Also know that defensive stats are notoriously tricky. Some folks like to adjust for possession which seems to make sense but there are a lot of possessionless teams out there who don’t like to put up big tackle-interceptions-pressures numbers because their style of play is to actually play more of a position defense rather than an aggressive tackling defense.
Burnley are a good example: fewest touches in the League and also the fourth fewest tackles+interceptions in the League. It’s a type of football popularized by Sam Allardyce – you probably think I’m joking but I’m not, I first noticed it when I was running some stats on possession and defensive actions and came across Allardyce’s Bolton – in which (my theory is that) the manager tries to actually just negate the game entirely. They don’t want their players diving in to tackles because it breaks up the structure and the structure, those two banks of four which cut off passing lanes and stays compact, is what provides their defense.
That’s a long-winded way to say that I try to be very careful when I look at defensive stats and look more at how the team play when I analyze a player’s defensive stats. Lille are middle-possession, low-aggression defensive team. Meaning that based solely off stats I suspect that they stay tight in formations and tend not to make a lot of defensive actions per game (they were mid-table in touches per game and third fewest in defensive actions per game).
They are also, however, first in their league in Pressures in the opposition final third while being mid-table in tackles in the opp.final third, last in tackles in their own defensive third, and top of the table in tackles in midfield. They were also very good at set play defense the season prior to last season, allowing just 6 goals off set pieces (2nd best) and scoring 10 goals off their own set plays (9th).
Meanwhile Arsenal are bottom of the Premier League almost all of the defensive categories. Here, let me list the with Arsenal’s rank last season:
- 17th in tackles attempted
- 16th in tackles won
- 15th in tackles in their own 3rd
- 18th in tackles in the middle 3rd
- 13th in tackles in the attacking 3rd
- 12th in total pressures applied
- 16th in successful pressures
- 8th in pressures in their own 3rd
- 10th in pressures in the middle 3rd
- 14th in pressures in the attacking 3rd
- 14th in blocks
- 20th in interceptions
- 19th in players tackled+interceptions
- 18th in goals allowed off set plays (15 goals allowed, 3rd worst)
No matter what the possession stats and no matter how low a team’s overall defensive output, there are teams (like Man City, Liverpool, etc.) who at least excel in one area of the pitch in terms of defensive output and yet Arsenal didn’t. Ok, so that sets the table: Arsenal are a very passive side, while Lille overall don’t attempt a lot of defensive actions but do like to press high up the pitch and tackle a lot in midfield. That is pretty much how I’d love to see Arsenal play next season and it mimics a lot of the top teams (such as City, Liverpool, and even Chelsea).
However, all that said, that change will come from the midfield (mostly) and will be boosted as soon as Arsenal can sort of the problems we have at center back where we feel like we have to play three center backs at all times. That itself is a combination of two problems: slow midfielders who are poor at reading the game defensively, requiring two players to stay pat in midfield; center backs who are error prone (due at least in part to being exposed so often by the slow midfield) and not exactly quick themselves nor terribly good at reading the game.
That’s also a problem in Arsenal’s attack. Because we don’t really have players who are exceptional on the ball (except David Luiz) in terms of advancing possession quickly and moving the ball quickly in midfield we invite pressure and struggle to move the ball into attacking positions. And when we do get the ball high up the pitch, we struggle to keep it, find it difficult to make chances, and often leave our center backs exposed to counter attacks.
All of that cannot be solved by one or two new center backs. However! If you did want to try to play with just two CBs your ideal pairing would be two players who can carry and play the ball forward – one lefty and one righty – who are also very assured when they do have to make a tackle and pretty good in the air and/or at set pieces.
Here is a visual chart of Arsenal’s three new center backs:
And here is the data in a format more accessible to screen readers:
| Category | Gabriel | David Luiz | Saliba |
| Long pass completion | 72% | 79% | 83% |
| Progressive pass (yds) per90 | 387 | 341 | 285 |
| Final 1/3 passes per90 | 4.78 | 3.21 | 3 |
| Progressive passes per90 | 4.31 | 2.85 | 3.18 |
| Carries per90 | 48 | 43 | 38 |
| Progressive carry yds per90 | 155 | 183 | 150 |
| Tackles per90 | 1.9 | 1.06 | 2.36 |
| Tackles won per90 | 1.34 | 0.64 | 1.73 |
| Tackle % | 71% | 60% | 73% |
| Tackles v dribbles | 58% | 39% | 55% |
| Pressures per90 | 7.93 | 6.12 | 8 |
| Pressure success rate | 39% | 35% | 44% |
| Aerial Duels % | 71% | 63% | 74% |
| Team goals allowed off set plays | 5 | 15 | 5 |
If I were to pick two center backs to play for Arsenal (in our price range) based on their stats alone, I would pick two big fellas who can pass, win tackles, and defend set pieces. I think we’ve done a great job!
Both Saliba and Gabriel are good tacklers (talk about tackle %, MAAATE), headers of the ball (ball headers? lol), both press well and often, make a lot of progressive passes, and both play long balls at a high percentage.
Also notable that both players come to Arsenal with what is clearly some decent set play pedigrees. This is a key for Arsenal who have recognized this deficiency and are looking to address this problem by bringing in Brentford’s set play coach, Andreas Georgson. It’s an interesting story because Brentford weren’t like, outstanding in terms of set pieces or anything but I do know that they use data to inform their coaching. I also hear that Arsenal are very interested in taking a more data-led approach to the game which fits what I think I know about Arteta (who did a lot of the analysis for Pep Guardiola) and how he wants to shape this team.
Anyway, I’m going to go back into hiding now. I have a book review of Brilliant Orange that I’m going to work on a bit this week so look for that and I might also write a test post about a concept I’m thinking about so look for that as well.
Sources: fbref.com, arseblog.news, theguardian.com
Great, thanks for writing and blogging. Brilliant orange, you have an inkling for RVP and understanding his actions?
Good stuff, Tim. That’s very encouraging. Now we need to sort out a deal for Partey or someone of similar capabilities.
Partey doesn’t put up eye popping numbers but I think he’s got an oddly unreal (good) skillset: like what they call a “5-tool” in baseball. I think that’s exactly what you need to pull off a great 3-man midfield.
Nice! Thanks for the stat work, as always, Tim. The world may be on fire, but damnit, I’m excited for this new CB pairing!!
Nice work on stats and the 3 aspects of defending you prioritize.
I thought Pablo Mari should have been included.
I did a piece on him a while back, the data is real thin and besides, if we are buying a 27m 23yo who is extremely left footed then my guess is Mari is going to be backup.
Did not know if a book about Dutch football with that title. I read that line as dripping with sarcasm about a book on our mindless leader.
No matter what the stats say, I don’t expect Arteta to start with Saliba from the beginning. He was warning against the hype, reminding of his age, and lets not forget, Saliba might look good and everything, but this was not Arteta’s transfer choice. Who knows how he fits in Arteta’s plans..
I think, at least in the first few matches, he will continue with 3 at the back with Luiz, and with his favorite Mustafi when he is back from injury.
I wonder how desperate are we to sell defenders. I guess that other clubs feel our urgency and can get really good bargain for Holding, and I can imagine Sokratis leaving even for free. For Chambers I think we can hold the price, it will not be a problem if he stays one more season at least.
just like with pepe, i believe we should temper our expectations of these two gentlemen. sure, they’re talented. my concern is that they’re young. the idea of playing two center backs who are so young as a tandem is a recipe for disaster.
neither of these two players seem as talented as thomas vermaelen. we saw two different versions of vermaelen; when paired along side william gallas and when not. alongside gallas, he looked world class, as gallas is a highly intelligent and experienced campaigner; gallas was clearly the leader of that team and that defense. that goes to my point that it’s not exclusively about talent but rather talent coupled with intelligence and experience.
i’ve never seen two young central defenders compete for championships. when they’re young, they need mentorship coming from senior players as well as the direction from the coaching staff. how much can a 22-year old who’s played in france teach a 20-year old who also has only played in france about defending in the premier league? arsenal need luiz, mustafi, and holding to stay. everyone else can go…and we can play chambers as a cdm.
Chambers CDM… seems like a poor man’s David Luiz CDM, which is like a poor man’s “I don’t have a midfield” last ditch gamble. So, yeah, let’s not do that 🙂
I think Arteta will go with a 5 man rotation at CB. Ideally we’d like to see Saliba and Gabriel form a great partnership early and play together for us for the next decade. Realistically it will be a bedding in process and we will probably see old hands Luiz and Mustafi start the season for us.
it wouldn’t surprise me to see chambers or elneny improve arsenal’s fortunes at cdm…seeing as arsenal have absolutely no one providing that service. with that, i’d love to see thiago alcantara in arsenal red. i’ve loved him since his barcelona days and felt he was so unlucky not to get into that team more. he’s had a brilliant career at fc bayern and it would be nice to bring that class, experience, and leadership to north london.
I saw Thiago in the UCL final. He was the 3rd player to lift the cup after Neuer and Lewandowski. You could tell how much he loved and was loved by his teammates. He’s clearly a technical AND emotional leader for them. A player like that can single handedly reverse the course of a team. I would be beyond thrilled if he chose to play for us, still aged only 29 but having won everything there is to win.
He played there for Fulham but yeah, I tend to agree that he’s not nearly progressive enough to be a MFer on a top club.
Yes and no.
Leipzig got to a CL quarter final with 24yo Klosterman and 21yo Upamecano. If they are good enough they are old enough, even with center backs. Saliba may be 19 but he’s had over two seasons starting every game.
Although I expect the back three with Luiz will continue until Mustafi and Mari are fit. In which case they could be paired with the new guys.
I thought you had died, Tim! Great to see you post, which suggests, too, that you are alive.
rumors of my demise were greatly exaggerated.
Thanks for the post, greatly appreciated.
at last, logical signings. Makes sense, as the world descends into chaos, it’s only natural that arsenal ascend out of it.
The calculated ruthlessness is a nice change also even though it seems AMN is leaving. If he’s pushing for a move I get it and he’ll do a decent job replacing Traore. Luckily for me I’m from Wolverhampton UK so I’ll be paying closer attention to wolves next season if he does end up there.
Rumours of the terrier leaving. yay! Socrates leaving, hoorah! shalke want the beast on loan, I’ll take that. Is that Kia’s work? Edu? either way if they pull all that off and add a Partey and Aoaur with Bergkamp replacing Freddie? well…
Gotta say, I like this version of the Mandela effect.
“…it’s only natural Arsenal ascend out of it” nice touch. Similar to Bayern and the start of their season.
I say let them learn as a young pair. If one or both is out of form take them out of the firing line and ease them back into the fire for more moulding.
Getting excited. Hope the transfer moves pan out positively. Too many pieces moving and fee stubborn to move. I see you Mesut 😅
cheers.
I really like the Gabriel signing. Tim’s statistics back up the eye test, admittedly drawn from YouTube, but nevertheless showcasing an impressive range of passing for such a large man. Tough, technical and tall. That’s a rare combination and well worth the investment. I hope the stuff between the ears fits too.
Well, Messi will now join Arsenal, of course. At 33, he fits the desired age profile!
I jest, I jest.
But holy cow, Messi is 33. In my mind, he’s permanently 19!
I also read the Alcantara rumors, and it all just sounds very, very implausible. He’ll be able to go just about anywhere he wants to play football. Speaking of which, anyone know why he wants to leave Munich?
$$$$$
I love this time of year! Full of hope and optimism! Kick back, forget all the previous damage that has been wrought and enjoy the sun. Our next campaign will be glorious!
Stats presented are useful indicators but still don’t fully take into account complimentarity between individual players (why some players are better with certain others…and Iceland/Greece/Leiceister etc win stuff)
I strongly suspect, they will start the season with as close to the Cup winning team as is possible. There’s politics and morale involved. Difficult to drop people out who have just won something for you. I expect the new signings to be on the bench initially. They did that with Robert Pires. He said he was shocked and surprised at the speed and physicality of the football and was glad to be a spectator! The integration and adaptation to English football needs to take time and be done in easy stages.
As far as the “defensive” midfield player is concerned, I don’t see either Chambers or Elneny as a viable solution. One of the main requirements for the man standing in front of the centre halves is to be able to turn and move quickly in either direction into space, in what is a very crowded area of the pitch. Santi Cazorla being the best example I can think of. It’s crucial that that player can find space and is a good distributor, otherwise the ball never gets over the half way line. We’ve already seen that, I’m afraid.
Watched the MK Dons game last night. I must admit Saliba looked very comfortable albeit against 2nd rate opposition. I was also quite impressed with the two young Irish lads who played centre defence in the 2nd half. The third goal was a thumping header from one of them. Get home!!
There was also Ben Cottrell, who played left wing back, but normally plays in midfield. He is small, but I like the look of him. He is all left foot, but moves the ball about quickly and accurately. I’ll be interested to see how he develops.
I feel vaguely optimistic about the new season, but then I always do. As John Cleese once put it, “It’s not the despair. I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.”