Good morning. Arsenal have announced that they have signed (free agent) Willian on a three year deal. And well before the ink even dried (or even flowed from the pen) there has already been a lot of talk about Willian and his contract being too big, not carrying enough residual value, not being a saleable asset, and possibly not being worth his total deal. People have become well entrenched in their positions, nothing will change their minds, and actually even writing this article was an exercise in textual onanism.
Most of the folks taking the “anti-Willian” stance talk about it in terms of resell value and age. But I got to thinking about the life of a contract, goal contributions, salary, transfers, and sell on value and found something kind of interesting (to me).
Willian’s deal is extremely straightforward: he signs for three years (reportedly £5.2m a year but we all know it’s £10m a year) and his total contract is 30m. That’s it!
If he contributes 15 goals this year, 10 next, and 5 in his final season, that’s a total of 30 goals over three years. And if we value every goal at £1m (they are worth WAYYYY more than that but let’s keep it simple because sometimes a EL goal in the last minute of a group stage match in which the club have already won isn’t that valuable – though, why would Willian playin that game?) anyway… where was I.. Oh yeah if he has 30 goal contributions over the next three years and you pay him 30m total and we say each goal is worth 1m, then you get a break even deal with Willian. Zero transfer fee, zero sell on value, but you get exactly what you pay for.
With player transfers it’s a little trickier. Let’s look at Pepe as an example. Arsenal paid £70m for Pepe PLUS pay him £7.3m a season in salary. Now you can talk about “amortization” but the reality is that Arsenal owe Lille £70m GBP monies (CREAM) whether they write that down on the books in some way or not is irrelevant. They also owe Pepe a bare minimum of £36.5m in salary over 5 years. Total cost of this deal is £106.5m.
Pepe contributed 18 goals this season (all comps) and let’s assume that he’s just as good as Willian was over his last three seasons and contributes an average of 20 goals a season for the next 4 seasons. That’s 100 goal contributions and a total cost of £106.5m. Same cost (basically) as Willian.
Of course, that assumes that Pepe smartly sees out his contract so that he can cash in ala Willian/Ramsey/Ozil/etc. In fact, I think Pepe would have to be a colossal moron or get some kind of stupendous offer not to refuse an extension and see his contract out. If I’m an agent, I’m recommending all my clients see out their contracts.
In addition to the Bosman ruling which is very shortly going to start catching on (I think) we have the problem of a tumultuous transfer market hit by a global depression. Arsenal paid £70m for Pepe last season – which seemed like an egregious price at the time – and there are zero chances in the hell of people digging up past tweets that anyone would pay that price now or even next summer.
But let’s set that aside for a minute and just pretend that we are all playing football manager from 10 years ago when clubs could easily move players around from club to club, players agreed to transfers, and player transfers grew at a steady rate relative to how well the player played.
Now, let’s also assume that Pepe continues grabbing Arsenal 20 goal contributions per season. Here’s a table of what Pepe costs per goal over the life of his contract:
| Goals | Salary | Sunk costs | Sell on | Debt | Cost/goal |
| 18 | 7.3 | 70 | 40 | 37.3 | 2.1 |
| 20 | 7.3 | 77.3 | 50 | 34.6 | 0.9 |
| 20 | 7.3 | 84.6 | 70 | 21.9 | 0.4 |
| 20 | 7.3 | 91.9 | 50 | 49.2 | 0.6 |
| 20 | 7.3 | 99.2 | 0 | 106.5 | 1.1 |
A few things to note: sell on price is a guess based off current performances and Transfermarkt’s value of the player. What’s Pepe’s “real” sell on value? Whatever a team will pay for him, which is an unknown. Also, sell on assumes that we sell at the end of the season in question and that Pepe agrees to be sold.
So, on this table if we sell Pepe in Summer 2021 for £50m we will still be out £35m because we will be paying Lille 70m no matter what plus his salary will have been paid. In other words, no matter how you slice it: Pepe costs Arsenal 84.6m over his first two seasons. Even if you “recoup” 50m of that in a transfer, you’re still owing 20m to Lille, plus you’ve paid him 14.6m in salary.
There is a catch here. Notice in year 3 I have his transfer value back up at 70m. If he performs at the 20 goal a season level for each of his first three years, and we can start getting fans back into the stadiums, and Pepe agrees to transfer (a club would have to offer a ridiculous salary), Arsenal could get the full transfer value back off this player. Remember this is the end of his 3rd season or summer 2022. So, that would be the time when the club would be in the midst of their most important negotiations with the guy. I personally wouldn’t give him a new deal and would look to get offers from other clubs at that point. At that point, you have a guy who has given you nearly maximum value for his transfer/wage fee.
The Pepe story is a bit of a cautionary tale. Plunking down huge transfer fees on players is a massive gamble with a low chance of huge upside. Set aside COVID: what if Pepe had come to Arsenal and turned into a goal machine? Well yes, in that case his value would have gone up. But reports this morning suggest that the footballing community was surprised by how much Arsenal paid for Pepe, even in the pre-COVID world.
Arsenal have reportedly started an investigation into their own transfer deal over Pepe. Which sounds funny at first glance but I actually think I get it: why did we choose to pay so much for this player, did we actually analyze the risks and rewards, what was the full contract plan, did we properly investigate the player’s background and attitude, were there other options we overlooked? There are myriad facets of this transfer that need to be looked at and questioned and there is NOTHING wrong with the club doing that. Even if it does sound like they are sending Inspector Clouseau to do it.
Pepe isn’t a typical example: Arenal bought a player who was at his statistical peak, at the peak of a wildly inflated transfer bubble, which was followed by a huge market crash, and the club suffered through a lot of managerial turmoil. Is Pepe a bust? No. But I will admit that he’s not as good as I expected: he’s very one-trick orientated at this point. But he’s also still an 18+ goals/assists a season guy who could get better with better players around him. And there’s almost no chance that Arsenal will repeat this gaffe.
However, to get a player in at Arsenal with similar goal contributions as Willian/Pepe – in that goldilocks age – you are sort of stuck paying massive transfer fees. A quick look around the League at similar players throws up some big names who may not cost 70m this summer but would easily cost upward of 50m.
Reading between the lines of that article above, what I think Arsenal are actually “investigating” is how they want to use the transfer market to structure the team. What are the costs and risks involved in getting a player like Pepe (someone who is in the goldilocks age range and who is entering his peak but is also a statistically well known quantity) into the team versus having a mix of younger players (Martinelli, Saka, etc.) and older guys (Willian) who you pay slightly larger salaries to but zero in transfer fees.
And when Arteta spoke about Willian he noted the player’s experience and flexibility: that he can play in four different positions and that the team wanted to strengthen in the attacking midfield position. I’ve already noted that Willian has played at a high level for the last five years at Chelsea but will repeat: he’s currently 6th in the League in SCA90 and creating shots is exactly what Arsenal need, since they are 16th in that stat.
You may not like the Willian deal but he does bring known quantities to Arsenal and has been touted by both Edu and Arteta, whom I trust have a great understanding of football. Is there a chance Willian will statistically fall off a cliff? Of course, that can happen to anyone at any age and is obviously more likely after 30. What will falling off that cliff look like? Obviously good questions.
But you know what? I’m not even remotely worried. I think the club are doing a pretty good job of mixing very young talent (Martinelli, Saka, Saliba, Nketiah and even Mavropanos) in with experienced older players, while trying to avoid the dreaded massive investments needed to bring in a bunch of 21-28 year olds.
And while you might not agree with this strategy and for legitimate reasons at the very least you have to admit that it is a strategy. I can’t remember the last time Arsenal had a recruitment strategy. Was it 2007?
One thing he will add is dead ball expertise. With his right foot and Pepe’s left foot, I wouldn’t want to give away a free kick on the edge of the box. Even in open play, he has a great shot on him. Not something you can level at many Arsenal players.
The other question to ask is where do you play him? I can’t remember where he lined up for Chelsea. Wide normally, I think. Does that mean PEA moves back to the centre? If he stays out left, where he can cut in onto his right foot, also where does that leave Saka?
Arteta said that Arsenal were looking for an attacking midfielder but that he’s also versatile. I think he mostly plays AM and occasionally wide.
I think Willian is an excellent signing for what this team needs and the position the club is in financially with the need to strengthen the midfield defensively as well as creatively. Willian costs little money up front leaving the ‘pot’ to address the other requirements, adds creativity, PL experience, occasional goals, hared work off the ball and has been an excellent mentor to the young Chavs coming through. I am optimistic he will change a few minds over his time with us.
Willian operates with equal effectiveness on both sides of midfield and attack. There’s a chart, with his stats in each position, on WhoScored. His versatility will be a great asset though it’s not easy to see where he can fit into an XI alongside PEA, Saka and Pepe.
The one thing he’s not (and the one thing we don’t have, discounting Özil – and assuming it’s still early for ESR) is a No 10. unless Coutinho comes.
Tim Stillman wrote about him as a predominantly RW player whose best skill is beating his man on the outside, a talent that might now age well. So he concludes that sticking him on the right wing conflicts with Pepe’s best position but elsewhere he is not likely to be as effective. I think that might be selling him a bit short but it’s an interesting take from a guy who follows Brazilian football closely and is 10x the committed fan I am. The quotes from Arteta and William himself speak to a more coherent plan than that. Arteta has long spoken about the need to bring players in to suit specific roles in how the greater unit functions, and it’s hard to believe that he doesn’t have a specific plan envisioned for Willian that does not conflict with our other star forwards.
Overall I agree with Tim. We are a better team today because he is in the team, and isn’t that the whole point? This isn’t some major albatross contract and is likely to represent good value. He will be more of a sub and specialist towards the end of this deal but that’s ok, every club needs those pieces.
Regarding the Pepe deal, there was a quote from Joorabchian about how the “previous guy” at Arsenal threw money around without thought. There should be a wider conversation about the club’s reliance on Kia Clients but those quotes probably echo some sentiments from within the club given Sven’s release and the news of this investigation. KJ seems like a guy who is deep in the counsel of the brain trust at Arsenal now, for better or worse.
We can look at a team like Wolves who built their squad almost exclusively on Portuguese Mendes clients and it has worked out well for them. Arsenal may be taking a leaf out of their book by using this agent buddy system with KJ. This together with the travel restrictions imposed by Covid and the need for cutting costs it becomes increasingly clear why the scouting department was considered redundant.
Tim Stillman wrote about him as a predominantly RW player whose best skill is beating his man on the outside, a talent that might not age well. So he concludes that sticking him on the right wing conflicts with Pepe’s best position but elsewhere he is not likely to be as effective. I think that might be selling him a bit short but it’s an interesting take from a guy who follows Brazilian football closely and is 10x the committed fan I am. The quotes from Arteta and William himself speak to a more coherent plan than that. Arteta has long spoken about the need to bring players in to suit specific roles in how the greater unit functions, and it’s hard to believe that he doesn’t have a specific plan envisioned for Willian that does not conflict with our other star forwards.
Overall I agree with Tim. We are a better team today because he is in the team, and isn’t that the whole point? This isn’t some major albatross contract and is likely to represent good value. He will be more of a sub and specialist towards the end of this deal but that’s ok, every club needs those pieces.
Regarding the Pepe deal, there was a quote from Joorabchian about how the “previous guy” at Arsenal threw money around without thought. There should be a wider conversation about the club’s reliance on Kia Clients but those quotes probably echo some sentiments from within the club given Sven’s release and the news of this investigation. KJ seems like a guy who is deep in the counsel of the brain trust at Arsenal now, for better or worse.
We can look at a team like Wolves who built their squad almost exclusively on Portuguese Mendes clients and it has worked out well for them. Arsenal may be taking a leaf out of their book by using this agent buddy system with KJ. This together with the travel restrictions imposed by Covid and the need for cutting costs it becomes increasingly clear why the scouting department was considered redundant.
A pessimistic scenario where agent willian accomplishes his mission would have arsenal spiralling down fast into a self afflicted demise.
It is pointed out that Emery preferred Zaha to Pepe, which is another indictment, isn’t it.
Like your financial analysis Tim. In this technocratic age it seems all fans have become the CFO. Sometimes feels like fans spend more time vexing over how the club spend their money rather than on field performances. I think this Summer I’m equally looking forward to who we move on as much as who we bring in. Could (should) be a better balanced squad come October.
I’m curious. If we gauge attacking players by their goals and assists contributions, how do we similarly gauge midfielders and defenders? Is it worth pointing out that there are players who do not light up the stats but very visibly make teams play better and therefore have intangible value? I guess what I’m saying is I feel like most goals are a team effort and ascribing value to who gets to finish it might be a tad skewed.
Certainly!
Statsbomb has a stat called “xg-chain” (I think) that tries to ascribe a value to actions that take place in course of the spell of possession leading to a goal. Of course, even if they have managed to do that well in terms of the quantifiable actions (passes, dribbles) that are involved, the stat wouldn’t be capturing events like off-ball runs or smart positioning that bends the defensive shape to help enable the ball’s movement or even a willingness to stay back and hold/cover so others can get forward, all of which make up that team effort you mention is involved in most goals. (And that’s just on offense, not addressing the defensive work needed to get the ball in the first place.)
I’d have preferred the Willian deal to be two years rather than three. Other than that, doesn’t seem horrible. He does meet a need for a more creative player, and he’s proven in the PL.
The jury’s still somewhat out on Pepe, but I’d say a second season like the first would put him in the “poor business” category. He’s perilously close to that now. Not because he’s awful, but because he’s nowhere near justified that salary and being the most expensive signing ever for Arsenal. With that status, you have to end up being one of the better/more important players for a team, or it’s going to be called into question.
If the investigation is essentially a negotiation and cost-benefit review, I have no issue at all. For the amounts involved, you’d hope Arsenal does that.
And this afternoon, Bayern beat Barca 8-2. Ouch. But at least that means someone has been hammered worse than us by Bayern in the CL.
On the other hand, Barca now officially look like a disaster. Their transfer record is substantially worse than ours. But guess who came from Barca to handle our football operations?
…”But guess who came from Barca to handle our football operations?”
it’s exactly what i’ve thought since he’s been at arsenal and was thinking when i saw that score line today. so many multi-million dollar barcelona transfers have been a huge waste of money.
And that’s on Sanllehi? Man, I’ve heard a lot, but even glancing at him for the result today is ridonk.
Bartomeu has been a disaster for Barcelona. I understand how badly we want to make our current board the villains of all and sundry, but please, some circumspection? A quiet word? With ourselves?
It’s bad but it’s not just us at least. Red Sox fans are currently losing their collective minds despite the fact that their last championship was in 2018 and they’ve won more of them than any other team in baseball in the past two decades.
i’m not blaming him exclusively for this result. it only made me think of him and the state of barcelona’s aging squad. one can only wonder if arsenal will over-spend the way they did for the likes of coutinho and dembele; that’s not to mention the chronically injured and out of favor vermaelen whom barca paid £18 million to get off the arsenal bench.
the bad transfer business barcelona has done over the years has been overshadowed by their success but their success is not tied to their transfer business. today, we saw the result of years of bad transfer business.
True.
Yes, jury is certainly still out on Pepe. His second season is key….what do you think he needs to improve? For me, if he can start running more off the ball, that would be an important first step. He just seems so static. With a season in the PL under his belt and better understanding with teammates, hopefully this all leads to better complementarity and more effective attacking threat overall for the team. Raises an interesting question: is complementarity born (i.e. depends solely on the combined individuals) or bred (can be improved significantly with the right coaching)?
I wrote a long comment on this post that is in purgatory for some reason.
The upshot is that I think Willian makes us better and that’s hard to argue against. The broader recruitment strategy takes after what Wolves did with Mendes and while it’s distasteful it’s hardly unsuccessful.
If Pepe starts putting in regular shifts at both ends of the pitch like he did in the FA Cup final, where he was a beast, he would start redeeming that price tag..
APJ,
I agree wholeheartedly. He is an ever improving package and that was on full display during our most important game of the year.
ding- dong, raul is gone!!!
….arsenal’s best transfer of the summer.
Seems like we were just talking about this yesterday ;-). And no, I don’t blame all of Barca’s issues on him. But the leadership is to blame as much as the players.
Certainly wasn’t expecting Raul to get the ax today. Wonder how much of that is a money saving exercise?
It may be no co-incidence that a few months ago we appointed a legal eagle to the board with governance as his brief and an investigation is taking place into the Pepe deal. I’m hearing a few rumours but they remain rumours. A sudden departure with a dignified announcement draws a discreet line under the gentleman’s Arsenal career.
The major positive is that the Edu-Arteta axis has been given the responsibility to take the club forward without the grey areas of responsibility that have existed at executive level since before Arsene retired. Vinay will count the pennies. We will not miss the Spanish wide boy and his shady connections.
Forward Arsenal!
Haha! Wow. Speak of the devil!
I’ll miss his voice, though. Incredible.
Thanks for the blog, Tim. Love your analysis. Simple enough but still relevant.
But I’d like to thank another Tim. Tim Lewis, Arsenal hero, for getting rid of Raul Sanllehi. I’ve been asking for this for more than 18 months. Finally we’re free of that wheeler dealer.
Not just the Pepe transfer, I’d look at the whole business since Raul took over. How much did it cost to withdraw Ramsey’s contract? (We still don’t have a replacement) To unsuccessfully try to force Ozil out. The decision to sell Iwobi (for not enough $$ imo) and bring in Pepe (for too many $$) Even Tierney, a good purchase, but we basically paid asking price for a then injured player.
Anyway, it seems Sanllehi overplayed his hand and the Kroenkes caught him out. He was never supposed to be the main man anyway. He blagged his way into the job. Now he’s out. Hallelujah!
“…I’ve been asking for this for more than 18 months. Finally we’re free of that wheeler dealer.”
Yes you have Shard , from the day he was announced if I remember correctly ha ha, good call.
I thought of Shard as soon as this was announced. Ha!
The word ‘investigation’ carries a damning connotation in headline-writing.
The word count in all the aggregated columns written on this topic– Pepe’s transfer– will add up to about 99% useless. Why I popped by to read Tim’s piece– in the other 1%. Backing it up with his analysis.
Where William will play and who it might effect in terms of minutes? Easy. Anywhere Mikel wants to slot him in– with whichever combo of other attackers suit the oppo that day. We now have an array of talented crossers in almost every position. Saka, Tierney, Pepe, Willian. Some long-passers in Luiz and Tierney. All pointing to Auba moving center. Allowing his shapeshifting self to poach goals on balls raining down behind defenders or crossed into the box. With a mix of attackers, Arteta intends to strategically focus strengths to target oppo weaknesses. What he gameplanned for Chelsea in the FA Cup final was masterful. Fielding an average quality XI– he exaggerated his teams strengths and minimized their frailties. Using Lacazette like a slide rule (from the 18 to midfield), to warp the shape of Chelsea’s defending– in creating pockets in behind– making Aubameyang’s pace so effective.
If Arteta can instill a style in how we attack– and vary it? There will be enough minutes for the six or 8 players in that mix.
Until watching Bayern demo Barca yesterday? Wasn’t sure of the Coutinho rumors. But damn. On a loan? Sure, why not? Pretty sure Barca isn’t going to be welcoming him back after a 2G/1A-in-15 minute appearance.
#SanllehiOut
Oh happy day!
As I was writing before, I couldn’t understand why the businessmen Kroenkes are allowing such a bad management of their assets. Seems they weren’t that stupid after all.
I just wonder what would that mean for the mode of operation going forward. Surely Vinai will not drive all the football matters, so either Edu will get “promoted” or KSE will bring in new Director of Football.
yep – you’d need humans for that (for off-the-ball-actions etc etc).
Not sure what those humans are called…. “scouts”?
As ever its not one silver bullet but a multi-disciplinary approach that gets results…
apologies – my reply to a specific post seems to have ended up in general stream and thus… pointless.
Not something any fan wants.
as for Willian – I don’t have a position on him
{pun scored}
And as for Raul – its less about the past and more about the future as to what a non-Don means (who gets to rual?)
/punned out