It’s over! The Premier League season is over and Arsenal has finished 8th. Our worst finish to a season since 1994/95 when we finished 12th. That was the season Arsenal fired George Graham for taking bungs.
The worst part of the season had to be the attack. We have seen the Arsenal attack devolve since Wenger’s departure from an expected goals of 63.2 in Wenger’s last season to 56.5 in Emery’s first season to a distinctly mid-table 49.6 this season.
And before you wonder if Arteta has done anything to fix the Arsenal attack he hasn’t. Under Emery Arsenal xG per game was 1.3, under Arteta it’s 1.3*. Actual goals scored is up – way up – from 1.2 per game under Emery to 1.6 per game under Arteta.
It’s a similar tale for the defense. In Wenger’s annus horribilis Arsenal had an expected goals against of 51.3, in the first year of Emery that went up to 55.7 and this season it’s 56.8. And again, looking at the split between Emery and Arteta the xGA is 1.5 for each manager. Like goals scored, goals allowed are better – way better – down from 1.5 per game average to 1.05 per game average.
Part of what’s going on with Arsenal is a problem with possession. In matches where we have the lead we try to become a counter-attacking team. I suspect this is because we struggle to keep possession under pressure. So, when I do a split of games where Arsenal has 55% of the possession or more, the xG is 1.4 and xGA is 1.2 but in the matches where we have less than 55% possession, the xG is 1.2 and xGA is 1.8.
This passes the eye test as well – we have spent all season watching Arsenal get bombarded by opponents when we are leading. The final game of the season was a perfect example of that: Arsenal raced off to a three-goal lead and then allowed Watford to create chance after chance until they had an xG of 3.5.
What has saved (literally) Arsenal’s blushes this season are the two goalkeepers – Bernd Leno and Emi Martinez. Combined, the two keepers have saved 11.3 goals over expected. That’s the “best” record in the League with only Tottenham 2nd behind us there.
Interestingly, Tottenham had an open-top bus parade after finishing in the Europa League places and above Arsenal in the table. But both North London sides had eerily similar xG, xGA, keeper overperformance, and striker overperformance. Neither team had much to crow about this season, though Arsenal are the only one with a shout left at a trophy.
Speaking of overperformance – I have to give my player of the year to Aubameyang. He scored 22 goals off 16 xG and it’s no exaggeration to say that without him Arsenal would have been in big trouble. His goals per shot (0.22) was joint 5th best in the League and had it not been for one or two misses this season, would have won the golden boot.
Arsenal has a lot to fix this offseason. The central defenders are error-prone and there’s a huge pile-up of players who seem to be out of favor. In center back we have Chambers (injured), Sokratis (dropped), David Luiz (the record for most penalties conceded), Mustafi (hamstring TORE OFF THE BONE), Pablo Mari (injured), and Rob Holding (who we tried to sell). We also have Dinos on loan and Willy Saliba coming in. It feels like we should try to sell some center backs but with the injuries and history of playing poorly, I think we are going to struggle there.
Meanwhile, the fullback situation looks mainly set: as much as we would like to see Sead Kolasinac moved on his salary is stupendous and his performances nowhere near commiserate. It would be quite a coup to sell him and get in another left-back.
In midfield, I have complete confidence that Arsenal will move at least one player: Matteo Guendouzi. I would entertain offers for Torreira and Xhaka as well but won’t hold my breath. Torreira might move on, he’s not a terrible player he’s just too small (too light at 132lbs) to play in the Premier League. He was rumored to be going in January and we might move him on.
Word today is that Arsenal will be retaining Dani Ceballos for another year on loan. On the one hand, I like it: he’s been great in Arsenal’s midfield and a loan deal is probably our best option at the moment. On the other hand, a loan deal just means that we are paying another team to improve the value of their asset. But if we get a good option to buy next summer, I would be tempted to take it.
Midfield is a huge issue that Arsenal needs to sort out – creativity and muscle are needed in equal measure. Thomas Partey brings both qualities but we should also be looking to add another creator in addition to Partey, someone like Emi Buendia. Emile Smith-Rowe will return from an excellent loan season but I can’t believe he’s ready to be Arsenal’s creative leader.
That’s probably the toughest area to sort out and will be one of the most expensive and possibly ruinous transfers of the summer. If Arsenal doesn’t get any midfielders in, expect more of the same in terms of possession, attack, and defense. This is a complete unknown area for me.
For the Ozil situation, I actually just want that to end. Just go ahead and start writing the puff pieces about what a genius he was for Arsenal now.
Up top, I feel strongly that Arsenal should give Aubameyang another deal. I think he will continue scoring at a high rate – at least enough to justify his wages – while we bring through Nketiah and Martinelli. This will be especially true if we can get in a creative midfielder to link play between the back and front. I would be open to selling Lacazette – not because I don’t rate him but because I think the money could be best used somewhere else (MIDFIELDERS).
As you can see Arsenal is a mess. But that’s to be expected in any transition from a manager who was at the club for 20 years and even more so because of the state that he and Gazidis left the club in. Saddled with gargantuan wages and expensive players who cannot be sold Arsenal is going to take time to get back on their feet.
I’m not trying to be a negative nelly here but I can’t see how Arsenal gets back into the top four anytime soon. Manchester City lost the League to Liverpool and while the stats suggest Liverpool was incredible City scored 102 goals this season and conceded just 35. And they are already telling everyone that they are going to hand Pep Guardiola £300m to spend on new players.
Meanwhile, there is noise that United are also going to spend heavily this summer and Chelsea will be looking to bolster their squad ahead of their Champions League campaign next year. And Arsenal is wildly reliant on matchday revenue for their income. I don’t know how the finances work at all for Arsenal next season if we can’t fill the stadium. I don’t know if Europa League is even remotely worth it if we can’t fill the stadium. And that’s not to mention the fact that the season is starting a month later than normal and there will be huge fixture pileups all season.
My guess is that Arsenal will break even in transfers this season. But that might not be too bad. If we can get in a few components that make us more competitive, well at least that would be a fun season ahead. And that’s all I want from Arsenal right now, just something fun.
*At the suggestion of GiantGooner on twitter I removed games which had a red card and it made no difference to the final average.
As far as transfers, let’s just ask Joorabchian, Canales and Mendes who they want to bring in?
You hit the nail on the possession problem… I’ve been saying for years that our technical standard has fallen tragically. I will not miss Guendouzi for the simple fact that he was technically sh*t – poorly weighted passes, bad first touches, challenges manipulating the ball with both feet. Just energy, but that’s not enough to be more than mid-table. Burnley plays with energy too.
And our best players – Aubameyang, Pepe, Ozil, Lacazette – they’re not possession oriented players. Auba and Pepe want the ball in space so they can run at people. Ozil is not content with receiving a short pass, moving 10m and asking for it back like Fabregas used to.
If we could just improve our short passing game, retain the ball in midfield better, ask players to come closer to each other (the need to dribble the ball just to get closer to a target, like Ceballos is doing steady, is driving me crazy), build through the middle more rather than using the flank players… I’m positive this would result in 1) more goal scoring chances created and 2) limit opposition chances on aggregate (per 90min).
I agree on Mesut. He isn’t a player whose best is in rotating possession, but has instead been in sides playing a transition game or a counter attacking game. At Madrid he thrived in a counter attacking side with multiple runners every time he had possession. Mesut’s time in the German national side (from the world cup in 2010), he has been in a transition system which is played by most sides in the Bundesliga.
His best performances for Arsenal have been in transition or on the counter.
I wonder if the best strategy for the team this offseason is to “invest” most of its resources by getting rid of overpriced players. If that means having to accept a nominal transfer fees or trying to negotiate buyouts then so be it. It’s not healthy for the locker room, the club, or the fanbase to have players like Ozil/Kola/Sokratis around collecting huge wages but being on the periphery of the squad. If this means a smaller budget for bringing in new players then so be it.
The Auba and Partey situations make me nervous that the inept front office continues to be… inept. While Auba has been inarguably fantastic, signing him to a 4-year extension on 250k+/week would be a mistake. Arsenal aren’t going to be competitive in the league next year- I think the average points for the 4th place team is about 70 over the last decade which would require a 14-point improvement next season. If Auba gets a substantial injury and/or regresses, which is within the realm of possibility, then it would push back the timeline of being competitive. It’s a scenario we shouldn’t risk because their simply is not much on the line for the upcoming season and the club would be wise to accept this reality.
As for Partey, a substantial amount of the transfer budget should not be spent on a 27-year old even if he would be a notable upgrade. It only makes sense if Xhaka is concurrently being sold and the fees are similar.
Those stats are in line with a 10th place finish or lower and Mikel has us overperforming in 8th;-)
The true numbers are up: 1.6 goals scored per game and 1.05 goals conceded. Mikel is also very close Arsene’s win percentage of 57.2% with a respectable 55.56%. If Mikel can get the team over the line in the FA Cup final, well now you guessed it he will be right on target with Arsene’s win/draw/loss percentages!
What Mikel has done with this dross is a minor miracle-period.
Have said for a very long time the entire club needs to be turned over, including the top tarnished brass above him, and re-tooled so Mikel can build a club in his vision,
Will he get the $ from stan the maN? NO.
Can he get some help through the selling of players? Yes.
Do I expect him to get any support from up top? Not really.
AFC needs to realistically spend $200 million to get back to top 4 and that is not happening in this window nor the next.
Will still follow my club, hope the covid 19 wipes out stan’s leveraged empire, and he sells, but have a strong feeling I am in for another Detroit Lions type of ownership and viewing.
My expectations are – we will finish similar next year as well. If Auba departs we might drop a bit further but this is where we will finish.
If Arteta manages to find midfielders who can cover space behind them (like turn very quickly and cover or move quickly and cover) and also able to fit a defense which is able to cover space in front of them and does not require 3 defenders all the time – then we can finish a bit above.
If a couple of those midfielders are able to break lines and feed the ball forward then we can get excited at Wenger ball levels.
The importance of this weekend’s game can’t be overstated. We saw with both Spvrs and ourselves last Summer that losing a final can send a team into a negative spiral. Win the FA cup and not only is it a trophy but a route to europe’s second competition; both very appealing to potential recruits.
I’m not going to sweat the off-season. Arteta will get the positions he wants filled. We know we’re not going to get the top talent (it’d be a stretch to call us a second tier club these days). A new 6, 8 and athletic centre back pair will do nicely.
Couldn’t agree more; we certainly need the money that the Europa League would bring, but the boost (or at least maintenance of) morale is o perhaps even more important.
tim, i appreciate the work you’ve done in compiling and comparing the statistics for the past three seasons. they tell a special story about the consistent level in which the team has performed on the field. likewise, they highlight the quality of both wenger and arteta; wenger’s worst season in 20 at arsenal and arteta’s first season ever as manager. emery has no excuse.
with that, arsenal can’t sell their best center forward. eddie is a huge step down to lacazette (who i’ve always insisted is an even bigger step down to giroud, but i digress). the smart thing to do is to extend aubameyang as he only wants an additional £50k a week. it would cost much more to replace his goals. it would also cost big to replace lacazette as we won’t even see martinelli until 2021.
bottom line is this; since cazorla got injured, arsenal have needed a holding midfielder to control games but haven’t had it. as a result, arsenal have had to off-balance the formation to shore up the defense and have finished lower in the league table in three consecutive seasons. will sanllehi recognize this? being a former barcelona guy, probably not. barcelona are on record as having done some of the worst transfers in history, primarily of arsenal players. as all gooners will know, the only one they’ve gotten right is henry.
a good cdm means you get a screen for defense, control of midfield, and support for the attack. this cdm also makes it possible to play mesut, which would substantially improve the arsenal xG. arsenal’s lack of a cdm over the past three seasons have facilitated their descent into mid-table mediocrity. i think it’s the most important role for arsenal to fill…but we can’t rob peter to pay paul; gotta keep lacazette. maybe the long, lost elneny can do that job. we’ll see.
Does anyone think we should continue with the reliance on one player for creativity? Do we still need that one player to make a supposedly “magical” pass against deep lying teams?
I think our current state is due to the fact that, since we lost Rosicky, Santi and Wilshere went out on loan, plus his injuries, we started relying on Ozil for a large portion of our chance creation. This was made worse by the fact that other sides improved the technical ability in their sides while we regressed (Losing Arteta, Ramsey and Santi) , so our ability to dominate possession could have been better by now, but we replaced Wengerball with Emery’s cowardly (sorry) football and our possession game went straight down the toilet (i.e. We never tried to dominate any teams).
As much as Man City have a team full of very talented players technically, they also dominate via positional play to stretch opponents and create time on the ball for their players. They also have certain movements, which Arteta has spoken about, to create space and move the opponents around the pitch. What they do for chance creation is very much a team thing, just as Liverpool do not utilise their midfield to dominate on the ball or to create, it is more of a team effort to dominate and to create.
Ozil has carried the creative burden of this side for a long time and his absence in the past 2 seasons has seen Arsenal at their worst in transitioning, chance creation, key passes, shots and possession. But if we have to move forward, we need a more sustainable way of being an attacking force, without relying on one special player. I like Emile, but I hope nobody looks to him to replace Ozil, because that is not gonna be possible. Ozil as a talent is a rare player to find or to emulate. The only player that talented and creative in that role that I have seen around is Kia Harvetz and he is on his way to Chelsea for about 80 million. My hope is that Emile is allowed to be himself and develop his own game without the burden of lifting Arsenal to its attacking heights of years gone by.
Mikel might not even need to make signings in midfield. I say that because he hasn’t really put his tactical ideology on the side. I saw a bit of it at the beginning of his tenure, but since the break he has been more focused on his side’s mentality more than the players ability to implement his football. Maybe these players can play his football, but we will never know until he tries it in competitive games and sees if they can make it or break.
In saying all of that, if he is looking to improve on what we are currently doing, then a single creative figure is needed and Buendia might suffice, but if we are going to evolve, we have to do away with relying on one player to create and start using the unit as a whole to be an attacking threat.
Devlin,
$h*tTy have spent a billion dollars on the like of Silva, (one of the best midfielders ever in the EPL, imlo) De Bruyne, Aguero, Sterling, Mahrez, and Co. in front of Fernandinho for the last 7 years, and Kompany, Walker etc. behind.
AFC does not have that kind of money for those types of players.
Not even a realistic comparison.
Our club will be fighting for players against the likes of Wolves and Sheffield, not even spuds level anymore, not to mention the likes of pool, $h*tTy, manure, chavs and other top clubs from other leagues.
Tottenham will be crashing back down to earth soon. Fear not!
Amen.
Hmmmm, not so sure. They’ve turned into a Mourinho team (you can see his style clearly, something we can’t say about Arteta yet), They’ll be in the mix for 4th place next season.
You can also see Mourinho’s style but not Arteta’s because he’s been the same coach for about 15 years now at multiple rich clubs while Arteta has had 6 months in his first job which is a massive rebuild.
What’s remarkable about Mourinho is his consistency. He plays the same style of defense first football regardless of the great players he has. Tottenham is well suited to that with the foundations of hard work and good spacing that were laid down over many years by Pochettino. What made them a club good enough to reach the CL final in my opinion was the offensive creativity of Eriksen, Son and Kane. They let Eriksen go, Kane got injured, and they promptly crashed back down to Earth. It’s a big summer for them because they cannot afford to lose Son or Kane, but neither player will be thrilled with the football he’s playing under Mourinho and in the Europa league. That’s the Mourinho cycle: 1. Improve results by defending well 2. Improved results lead to confidence, his team peaks 3. Alienates top players, blames everyone around him, gets fired with a fat severance check.
I don’t think Spurs will peak very high under Mourinho. I just don’t think his heart is going to be in it. He wants to win big trophies, not scrap for 4th or some measly second tier cup. If I’m right, he may be out of a job again within a year.
Arron,
I think you might have misunderstood my point. I am not saying we will be at their level or that we can afford that level of player. What I was pointing at was how they do not have a single reference point for their attacking moves. The ball does not have to go exclusively through any one person for them to pose a threat. They have spread the danger across the pitch and posed different points for opposition to stop, instead of having teams just man-mark Debruyne to stop City’s attack.
It’s not even an ability thing. If your side does not have a stand out creative player, and an equally talented replacement in case he the first is unavailable, you have to spread the threat across the pitch and make it easier for the rest to create. An example would be how we use Pepe. He is a very talented player as we can all see, but he could be far more effective if he only had to beat 1 or 2 players to get a sight in goal, instead of 4 or 5. City try to isolate opponents with players like Sterling and Mahrez because they are similar to Pepe.
The spreading of players and the movement to drag players away from Pepe isn’t really for City’s level of player only. Norwich showed that playing out from the back isn’t for top sides only, Bournemouth showed that possession football isn’t for top sides only and Leeds have been showing a coordinated press isn’t for top sides only as well.
So, we can improve as a side tactically and if that comes with an improvement in technical quality from incoming players, even better.
It goes without saying that we badly need a holding midfielder and that guy is Partey. I think the club will will try hard to get him. Whether they are successful depends on who we can offload for a decent return.
That would not be Ozil but we have to bite the bullet and pay him to go away. Lacazette might command a fair price. I would hate to let either Leno or Martinez go, they who saved our hides time and again, but their stock is high right now. Auba, obviously is a key retention. Winning the Cup at the weekend may swing a deal, otherwise I think it’s au revoir. Luiz needs to be someplace far, far away from an Arsenal goal net. Back to Brasil, perhaps? That’s just scratching the surface.
We are around where we should be – 8th in the Premier League., a whopping 10 points from a top 4 place. If Arteta is going to turn this around, which I totally believe he can do, the club has find a way to give support him with the required resources. Either that, or we become a typical KSE team: Not very bad, not very good.
Great post Tim. Thanks for an awesome season of posts. I agree that we need more creativity from midfield however IMO that is not the real answer to our attacking problems. I know there is a lot of fond memories of Wengerball but the reality is that style of play was never very effective. Starting at the beginning of the Emirates era when Arsene committed to building his team around his creative midfielders starting with Cesc and then Ozil, I am sure we have lead the PL in creativity, ball possession, passes completed, pass accuracy, key passes etc etc. However our table position in actual goal scored tells a different story then our passing stats. Starting in 05/06 we have been 3,3,2,4,3,2,3,3,4,3,4,5, 4 in table position in goals scored during the Wengerball era. During the Wenger/ Ozil/Rosicky, Cazorla, Ramsey Wilshere years we were 4, 3 4, 5 and 4th place in goals scored. Emery’s first season team out scored all but 2 of Arsene’s teams in this decade..
The point of all of this is midfield creativity, technical skill, ball possession and passing skill, high XG are all nice but they don’t mean anything if you don’t have players who are good at scoring goals and that’s where Wengerball was always deficient. Auba is at an age where his production is probably going to start dipping and Laca already has seen a dip in his goal scoring production and we don’t have anyone else on the squad who is even a threat to hit double digits in a league season. Hopefully Arteta and our front office will study history and learn its lessons and use our funds wisely when they embark on the squad rebuilding. To me the priorities are a strong back 4 and increased firepower upfront along with a defensive mid.
Yes 1Nil. Arsenal are already a typical Kroenke team. They will run the club to be marginally competitive with the occasional big signing and upper midtable performance. When the club is merely striving for Top 4 finishes, midtable is where it ends up.
Devlin,
First, it is Aaron..
Secondly, the type of technical players required for ball possession and control takes billions of dollars.
Now, on the other hand if Mikel wants better athletes, stronger, faster, quicker, more mobile, agile, lithe and all that, then I do believe we can close the gap to 4th and the ten points needed, last year, not next year. It is the cheaper way to go.
Agree with 1niltothearsenal and lagunner, ksE’s teams have horrendous records. stan the maN is worse than the plague.
Dude, have some grace. If you’ve read Devlin’s thoughtful responses on here, you surely know he meant no slight by misspelling your name.
…and you would know that english is NOT his first language. we all make mistakes.
No worries Joshuad, point taken, however I can spell anyone’s name correctly in most languages of the world, it is not that difficult to copy and paste, or google translate if one has difficulties.
Still stand by my assertion that a team of skilled players cost big time $.
Look forward to Arsenal’s hierarchy supporting Arteta in the transfer window to address the obvious issues in midfield and defence. Not with bated breath!
Arteta has been saying the right things – FA Cup and EL is not good enough for this club. It might well be his own ambition as well, which while augers well for our club, it could frustrate him if not supported and lead him to leave.
I’m still waiting to see if Arteta is the head coach to take us back to the top, after the troubled times with Emery. The interrupted 2nd half of the season has been in the right direction.
Completely unrelated, but I know it’s been mentioned here before: I just finished watching “The Last Dance”…what a great documentary! Made me quite nostalgic for the late 80’s / early 90’s. The music, the fashion, the hero and sports worship before social media. How would MJ and co. have fared in the age of twitter and instagram, I wonder.
Overall, an inspiring story, and very, very well made. I can see why it’s gotten a lot of hype.
(and I was not and am not a basketball fan)
I actually enjoyed ‘The English Game” on Netflix though it’s not nearly as good film making as “The Last Dance”. Mind you one is a documentary and the other is a typical Julian Fellowed period piece full of hoary social class cliches, Oxford aristocrat wankers vs. stolid working class blokes. Entertaining despite itself and some lovely cinematography.
i was explaining to my teenage son that people who didn’t even like basketball loved to watch that bulls team; they were entertaining. the show also highlights the fact that they were human and had to overcome internal struggles to win championships. it’s a great story, not to mention the production.
and yes, it was a bit nostalgic with the music and fashion of the 80s and 90s.
Very interesting take on football transfers. They are almost there in the PL too.
bill, you can’t just summarily dismiss the first half of wenger’s time at arsenal to make your anti-wengerball argument. wengerball was fantastic at highbury too, winning arsenal 3 championships and 4 fa cups in the 8 seasons before the emirates move. there’s a reason you don’t include the time at highbury and we all know why…because it completely debunks your argument. arsenal were one of the top scoring teams in europe, not just the premier league.
but let’s entertain your “post-highbury” argument. the move to the emirates means that arsenal didn’t have much money to spend on player transfers. despite that, arsenal still finished regularly in the top 4 in goals scored playing wengerball. what’s more, wenger did it with a bunch of kids. who else could do that? who else was consistently in that top 4 group in the 21 years wenger was at arsenal? nobody! only arsenal, and that was despite the chronic injuries to key players.
scoring goals is all about creating good chances. if you don’t have chances to score, it doesn’t matter who your goal scorer is. regardless, arsenal have had henry, adebayor, van persie, giroud, alexis, walcott, eduardo, podolski, lacazette, and aubameyang prove to be good wengerball finishers at the emirates; those guys were “good at scoring goals” as you often say. who’s done better in that time?
correction. i don’t know why you failed to mention arsenal’s time at highbury. it could be that you weren’t familiar with arsenal back then. if so, i’d encourage you to pull up some old videos of the team and they way wengerball was played back then. it was a sight to behold. arsenal would often win games in the tunnel before kickoff. even neutrals would tune in just to be entertained.
…and you will see that arsenal’s greatest goal scorer ever often missed chances but it mattered little; wengerball would always create more chances.
The numbers do pain a bleak but not shocking picture. Wenger and then Emery after him had to go because they lacked the ability to unite the club. It was more of a failure of communication and leadership than anything else. Three consecutive managers now have essentially played the same style of football because it suits the players we have: three at the back, bypass midfield, overload the flank, hit crosses to quick forwards. The team did this arguably better under Emery than Arteta but there is no question in my mind who the better coach for Arsenal is. Arteta is the type of man who inspires trust and confidence. His players buy into him and thus buy into his message. I believe that is much more important than the style of football itself: everyone must pull in the same direction, the direction must be constant, and the pull must be the utmost that can be mustered. I think on these three core principles, Arteta has excelled. That is a foundation that we can build on. The rest will take time.
Well said, Doc!
“Shakin’ the tree, Boss”
Hey Doc, always appreciate your reasoning. I agree with some of your points and am keen not to assess Arteta until after our largest game of the season. Where I’m currently unconvinced is what I’ll refer to as ‘direction of travel’. We’re wildly inconsistent. Dominated by Brighton; dominate Leicester then throw it away; backs-to-the-wall gritty performances against ‘Pool and City; and arguably our poorest performances under Arteta against Villa and Watford. And look we can discuss until eternity the nuances of each game and god forbid, ‘player poverty’; but come next season we’re all hoping for greater consistency, starting with playing style. I’d like to see Arteta assert leadership on our incomings and outgoings this Summer. And then fashion the team for the type of football he wants to play from matchday one.
I think he would agree with you! It’s not so much player poverty as the players he has are best suited to a style he doesn’t really want to play. He wants the ball, he said that on day 1. I think the reason we play better against more expansive sides is twofold: 1. There is greater anticipation and focus and 2. There is space behind the ball. Where we miss creative talent is especially when we face a deep block and teams that lump it long: that nullifies the press and hands us the ball in areas they know we can’t hurt them. That’s hard for even the best midfield to overcome at times. We don’t have the best midfield and our forwards, except Lacazette and maybe Pepe, are very direct And do their best work off the ball. So to sum it up, Arsenal know how to play the big teams and they have the tools to do so. We know how to play the small teams but lack the tools to do so. And if you want to win the league, you have to beat the small teams. That’s what Wenger did so well in the “Top 4 Era.” His teams couldn’t beat any of the top teams though, so now we’ve come full circle. Arteta will want to round out the team so it can win both ways, and Tim outlines that nicely.
hey doc, i think it’s not three managers had the same players, but more that they all lacked the same player (singular). that player is…….wait for it………..cdm.
this is not rocket surgery. if a country boy from jacksonville can recognize this…
That’s one theory 🙃
hey, giroud has got 8 goals in his last 9 starts. anyone notice? arsenal have got to deal with that big sob on saturday.
Josh.
I ignored the Arsene at Highbury era because we played a very different and more effective style of football from 1996-2004. Starting with the Emirates era we changed the focus of how Arsene built his teams and for some reason he moved away from the formula of combining great defensive teams with strength, pace and counterattacking with plenty of firepower upfront which had worked so well during the Highbury years. We changed to building the team and allocated our resources to technically skilled creative central midfielders and focusing on dominating the midfield with ball possession, passing and measured buildups and moved away from counterattacking and sacrificed defensive solidarity for the sake of playing our brand of attacking football. Arsene built teams that had as much or more pure technical skill and creativity in our central midfield then almost any teams in the world and it gave us some eye catching and artistic football and we had we had great passing stats. However, we sacrificed defensive solidarity for the sake of playing attacking football but our attack while eye catching was never that effective because the numbers prove beyond a doubt that we were never a high scoring team and couldn’t score enough to compensate for the increased number we conceded.
My whole point is I have seen a lot of people suggest that Arteta will try to emulate his mentors Arsene and Pep and move the team back to playing a style similar to the Emirates era “Wengerball”. However we have 15 years ago data which shows that even Arsene couldn’t make that system work especially in this decade. Pep is the only manager that has been able to successfully use that strategy and it only works for him because he can afford to build teams with an gigantic talent advantage and his teams score a lot of goals because he is able to combine overwhelming firepower upfront with his technical midfielders. I am not a proponent of parking the bus because the ceiling for that strategy is competing for the Europa league spot. However I think our long term team building strategy has to focus on strong defense at the back and pressuring the ball and build our attacking strategy around firepower upfront and a lot more counterattacking.
at highbury, arsenal played wengerball. the reason for the difference in the approaches were clear. first, the move to the emirates provided financial restrictions on who wenger could buy. as a result, he used kids.
second, 2006 is also when vieira left, meaning arsenal had to go to 3 in midfield to compensate for the lack of range and power void that vieira’s departure created. likewise, all of the teams in europe played with 3 in midfield, meaning arsenal were often outnumbered and struggled to control the game. finally, many teams would implement the mourinho-based “park the bus” approach when playing arsenal, which meant you needed playmaker to break that down or arsenal would get hit on the break and pipped for a 1-0 loss.
third, as good as arsenal were before the emirates move, they could never win in europe. like i said in the previous paragraph, all of the teams that were beating arsenal and winning the champions league were teams that had these creative midfielders. wenger sought to create a team good enough to beat the real madrids, valencias, barcelonas, ac milans, juvenuts’, liverpools, fc bayerns, and manchester uniteds of europe while still winning in england. the initial version of wengerball was never adequate to that end.
last, pep is not the only one who’s been able to do what he’s done with creative midfielders. his predecessor, frank rijkaard, was in charge when the core of that barcelona team was formed. there was ancelotti, houlier, benitez, ferguson, del bosque, hyenckes, hitzfeld, van gaal, zidane, and mourinho.
Giroud has somehow hit a really strong run of goal scoring form and regained his job as the starting center forward. With rare exception center forwards need to score goals to be effective. Arsene never would have sold Giroud and he would not have lost his starting job with Chelsea if he had not stopped scoring goals for the last few years.
giroud is one of the exceptions in that he doesn’t need to score. he makes the team’s attack better. wenger got the decision to replace giroud with lacazette wrong. i said it then and i stick by that today. however, wenger’s not the only one. giroud has had 3 managers since moving to chelsea and they’ve all brought in center forwards they thought would be upgrades to giroud and they’ve all been wrong as well. players like batshuayi, morata, higuain, and now tammy abraham have all been given the nod ahead of giroud only to be replaced by giroud.
every piece of silverware arsenal has played for or lost in the past few years has been affected by giroud and i’m not expecting anything different on saturday. he was part of all 3 fa cups arsenal have won in recent years and was key part of the chelsea team that spanked arsenal in baku just over a year ago. i know hazard got man of the match but giroud assisted hazard’s first goal and won the penalty for hazard’s second, not to mention scoring a goal of his own. he’s a problem and, like i said, wenger got that decision wrong.
Giroud was unfortunately the successor to RVP. RVP had torn up the league and was a rare 30 goals a season striker. He was always going to be a hard act to follow. Giroud was and still is a hard working, classy guy with a deft touch and fantastic in the air. What he didn’t offer was mobility, pace and the ability to play over the top balls. We fans were often frustrated by his limitations and it also meant we often had to play one way with him as a hold up man. Plus when he had a barren spell boy was it a long one. You can tell Wenger was never truly convicted about Lacazette or he’d have bought him a season or two earlier. But he did take the gamble and you could say Wenger got it wrong. But part of me feels Laca hasn’t really lived up to expectations. I applaud Wenger for rolling the dice. He was clearly very fond of Giroud and knew he still had many good years and left in him, but he wanted to recalibrate the attack to make the team more dynamic.
From 2013-2018 we were built to play “Wengerball”. We had Arteta, Ozil, Cazorla, Rosicky Ramsey and Wilshere in our central midfield and we had Kos, Mert and Nacho who were also good passers of the ball. During that era we had as much or more technical skill, creativity and passing ability as almost any team in the world. . Despite all of that technical and passing skill we only averaged 4th place in the PL table in goals scored. The problem was other then Sanchez the forwards those creative players were passing the ball to, Giroud, Walcott, Iwobe, Ox, Welbeck etc were not good at scoring goals.
Josh
IMO the thing which defines a good attack is not the intricacies of the tactics or the passing stats. Like it or not the real effectiveness of an attack is determined by the number of goals a team scores. We had more creative talent in those squads then almost any team in Europe and we also had Giroud and if he was so good and made our attack better then why didn’t we score more goals during those years? It was a several year sample size and the results are indisputable.
you mentioned that arsenal had arteta, cazorla, ozil, rosicky, ramsey, and wilshere as creative players…all players who suffered with chronic injuries during their arsenal careers. that’s not insignificant. it’s difficult to be at your very best when you’ve got constant injury problems.
likewise, the entire team has a responsibility not only to score but to defend. that requires balance. if arsenal can’t defend properly, it’s going to affect the attack; in football, defense and attack are not mutually exclusive.
in 5 1/2 seasons at arsenal, giroud has scored more than 100 goals and he’s a world cup winner. not only that but the attack was better with him in the side because he’s a proper center forward. wenger tried replacing him multiple times with players like walcott and alexis but ended up going back to giroud. for me, it’s plain to see why.
lastly, you talk of arsenal’s wengerball finishing in 3rd or 4th as if it’s 3rd or 4th from bottom. what other english team, in wenger’s career, has consistently finished in the top 3 in scoring? what other team has an aggregate scoring record better than wengerball? i guarantee you that team doesn’t exist.
so many of your arguments are based on conjecture…as if we no one else watched arsenal play and see their struggles from time to time. you only look at stats, which are useful, but first there’s the eye test. you also have to consider the balance of the team. so many things come before the stats.
Josh.
Ball possession, passing stats and defensive stats make interesting blog fodder but the entire reason teams attack is to try to score goals and the reason they defend is to prevent the opposition from scoring. Goals scored and goals concede are the only 2 stats which directly affect a teams ability to win games so it seems completely logical to use those stats as the ultimate arbiter of how good a teams attack and defense were. Sometimes you can be misled by small sample sizes but in this case we have 5 years of data and the results are indisputable
I love me some reductionist absolutism!
Everyone stop reading all the blogs and just read the League table! If you want to know what happened in a match, just read the scoreline!
The “that’s all that matters” type of reductionism adds nothing to any discussion and in fact seeks to limit our understanding of and enjoyment of football. This isn’t an analysis. This is actually an attempt to kill analysis, to strip all context, to reduce understanding to simple terms (goal difference), and to stop others from having meaningful conversation, share ideas, and possibly discover new concepts and synthesize new meaning.
Should a team attempt to score more goals than their opponent? Lol. yes. that is what (nearly) every team is trying to do! How do they do that? Buy buying better players? Yes, buying better players does tend to work out. Well, there we have it. True insight.
Bill, you have made 561 comments here and nearly all of them say the above two things. See, what I just did there was exactly what you are doing here to everyone else. Can you be reduced to those two comments? Do you have more nuance than that? I think you do.