Summer transfer bonanza?

107 comments

1. As you point out, it is always difficult to judge the possibilities during a transfer window (we don’t know about demand/supply). During the Corona pandemic this will be even more difficult.

   For me the main priorities are: 1) midfield 2) midfield 3) midfield. Sure, we’ve seen many individual mistakes by CBs this season. But Mari and Saliba will be our CBs next season, and I still think Chambers could be useful (was our best CB before his injury).

   On the midfield there is two opties:
   1) We continue to play the current formation. In that case we just need one extra midfielders. Partey – Ceballos/Xhaka would be pretty decent/
   2) We revert to a 433 (as we have better defenders). In that case I think Saka will have a major role to play. If (big if) we loan Ceballos for another year (with obligation to buy after Ozils contract runs out) and put Partey next to him, we have a decent midfield. Also gives Sake the chance to move to the left, with Auba or Martinelli moving inside.

   Attacking wise I don’t mind as long as we play Martinelli and Pepe (and Eddie) regularly. Keeping both Auba and Lacazette but not fixing our midfield would be a huge mistake.

2. Hate to say it. Be like Liverpool. Sell Aubameyang. Invest the big bucks. No flavor of Europe next year. Rebuild. Coach and manage. By the time we are significantly better, Auba will be well past peak.

   1. Right on Philip. Auba (and to a lesser extent Laca) are the only guys who can fetch the kind of money we need to start a real rebuild. I love Auba and believe Laca is better than he’s shown at Arsenal. With real service somewhere else they will deliver. But this team can’t deliver the service they need without a new pairing at midfield. 2 new players who are young and talented whom we can build around. Our young guys can score if they get service.

3. Really great post Tim. I agree with almost everything you say. I am reasonably certain Guendouzi will be moved. I suspect that Arteta would be putting in a lot more effort to rehabilitate his attitude if Arteta felt he was a valuable player. Guendouzi is not going to play ahead of either xhaka or Ceballos and there is no room for him in a 2 man central midfield. I suspect the bust up after the Brighton game has given the manager a convenient excuse to drop him.

   There is not a chance in the world that we can move Ozil. I doubt Mesut would agree to any move away from London even if we could find someone to take him which is highly unlikely. I think he recognizes that he is no longer capable of helping another big club and I suspect actually being on the pitch and playing football is probably not his highest priority at this point in his career. Elneny is useless and we should move Lacazette if we can get a good transfer fee. Maitland-Niles isn’t very good nor is Sokratis. I would be sorry to see Holding leave. It will be interesting to see what will happen with Ceballos and Xhaka and Torriera.

4. I totally disagree with some of the names on your cash-in list. Laca will hopefully go nowhere. He is amazing, was our player of the season last year and Arteta said a dozen times that he rates him highly and likes him a lot. So this would make absolutely no sense for both parties. And i do not see Xhaka going anywhere. He is amazing and so important for our midfield. I am. not sure about Holding though, cause he barely plays under Arteta, but I guess he can be solid with the right manager around – and Arteta clearly is the right manager. I think with Mari and Saliba plus one more cb and one or two midfield additions, we can really be much stronger than last year already. But if sell Laca or Xhaka we would weaken us further. So this absolutely makes no sense at all.

   1. Sorry but I totally disagree that Xhaka is “amazing.”

      He is nowhere near the level needed to get Arsenal back into the top four. We have suffered an amazing dip in quality to go from world class, world cup winners like Vieira to Cesc to Cazorla (who is still tearing it up in Spain) to frikin Xhaka.

      Come on. It’s not a coincidence that the midfield is Arsenal’s weakest spot, that we get outplayed there by pedestrian teams, that we can’t progress the ball and our attack is terrible, and that Xhaka plays there week in and week out. He’s slow, takes multiple touches to control ordinary passes and despite long bombing all the time rarely creates. The sooner we get rid of him the better Arsenal will be.

      1. I think in terms of what Xhaka is capable of and what we are seeing right now or for the past few years for Arsenal are two vastly different things. He is the captain and leader of a very good (and severely underrated) national side. He is the same player there as at Arsenal, but they play him in a system and around players which suit him.

         So quality wise, he is an elite player, but the truth of the matter is that Arsenal is ,and has been for the past few years, a club without a plan, an effective style of play and has also been very toxic at times. We have not created a squad or setup that has looked like a real team since the 15/16 season, which was the season after Arsene stumbled upon his last working midfield by mistake.

         So, for Arsenal? Yes, Xhaka has been bad in a very bad side, that made almost all his teammates look bad too.
         In general? Nope, He has shown consistently with Switzerland that a team can work well with him contributing towards its success.

         1. He’s not even remotely an elite player. His touch is poor, his vision is poor, his reading the game is poor, and physically he’s a lumbering oaf. We are just going to have to disagree here.

         2. All true Devlin. But Xhaka is not cut out for the speed and physicality of the PL. He can boss the Swiss team, and flourish in Bundesliga, but he gets completely outrun and outplayed by the quickness and pace in the PL. I think he has great qualities and seems like a real leader. But he can’t beat people 1v1. He turns way too slowly and is too one-footed to be a mainstay in a PL midfield. 3 different managers haven’t been able to pair him successfully with anyone, although they’ve tried a variety of options. We have to do better.

            1. Xhaka v Henderson who is the better player yet Henderson is about to win a PL.henderson doesn’t have pace or power nothing stands out with him.i don’t think xhaka is the problem.its more with the team set up

            2. Henderson is much quicker in bursts and quicker releasing the ball than Xhaka. Xhaka is great with lots of time and space. Henderson has a good burst over 5 -10 yards and can beat people 1v1. Xhaka just can’t.
               Statswise:
               Henderson has more goals, assists, big chances created, through balls, tackles, interceptions, better tackle success %, blocked shots, and better % of aerial duels won.
               But Xhaka does lead in yellow cards and errors leading to goals, lol. Henderson’s football IQ is way above Xhaka’s, too.

            3. This is 100% accurate. Xhaka in a nutshell.

      2. I wouldn’t lose sleep, if we sold every single midfield player at the club. None are at the required standard. Having said that, Willock and Smith Rowe might get there in the end, with a bit of luck, if you fancied an outside bet.

5. Selling Holding seems a bit risky to me. Feels to me like he was playing pretty well before he blew the ACL. If we move him, we’re putting a lot of eggs in both Mari and Saliba being good.
   And I’d still like to see Chambers as CDM. He’s strong, good in the air, and a good passer. And at least before the injury, more mobile than Xhaka.
   Beyond that, agree with most of the analysis. I’d like to think that ESR can help the midfield, but hard to say for sure.
   Rumors floating around that Barca might be willing to sell us Coutinho. Could we get them to swap Coutinho for Ozil and Guendouzi? Would we want Coutinho if we could get him for a semi-reasonable fee?

   1. I’ve looked at the stats for when Chambo played in CDM and watched him play for Fulham. He was dreadful, nowhere near the quality needed.

      1. Hmmm . – interesting – wasn’t he voted Fulhams best player at CDM?
         OK it was Championship football – but it was his first go round at CDM.
         Sell Xhaka. Bring in Santi for 2 years – he can do everything Xhaka can’t.
         Would be fine helping ESR along.
         Partey wants Champions league football. He won’t be coming.

         1. Yes, he was voted POY at Fulham. But let’s look at some key data points for Chambo and compareed to Xhaka last season.

            233 – Progressive Dist passing per90 and just 4.5 progressive passes per90
            432 – Progressive Dist passing per90 by Xhaka and almost 10 progressive passes per90 last season
            4.2 – passes into the penalty area for Chambo
            8.24 – passes into the penalty area for Xhaka
            1 – Through ball all season by Chambers that year
            8 – Through balls for Xhaka
            1.8 – shot creating actions p90 for Chambo
            2.52 – SCA p90 for Xhaka
            33% – Tackle success rate for Chambo
            36% – Tackle success rate for Xhaka
            28% – Pressure success rate for Chambo
            31% – pressure success rate for Xhaka
            79 – Progressive carry distance p90 chambers
            142 – Xhaka

            twice as many miscontrols per90 for Chambers
            92% reception rate for Chambers and 98% for Xhaka
            64% successful dribble rate for Chambers attempting 1.35 per game
            57% aerial duels percent won by Chambers, 53% by Xhaka
            14 successful crosses by Chambers, 130 by Xhaka.

            Now, what he did do better was bulk defending:

            5.87 successful pressures p90 for Chambo
            4.86 successful pressures p90 for Xhaka
            2.4 – INT p90 for Chambo
            1.2 – INT p90 for Xhaka
            2.36 blocks p90 for Chambo
            1.22 blocks p90 for Xhaka

            I don’t like Xhaka but Chambers would be a huge downgrade on Xhaka.

   2. A shame about Holding. I always thought he had something. What he needs, of course, is to play alongside someone who actually knows what they are doing.

6. It’s pretty rare that you see that much movement in a single window in terms of first-team players, but yeah, maybe this year is the one. Oof.

   About those prices, though. This is Arsenal we’re talking about, so guaranteed we’re not getting close to value for those players. With that said, even if I pretend that COVID’s not really impacting the market, I’d say the price tags you list are very optimistic. I’d say Lacazette is maybe worth £20-25m even in a non-pandemic market (but Arsenal will get £12m because Arsenal); Guendouzi? £20m at most (A = £10m); Sokratis? £7.5m (A = £3m). I’m also just curious, generally, whether COVID will have any impact whatsoever. Some of the latest rumors indicate…not really.

   But you’re right about Ozil. He will be delighted to pick up his weekly wages until the very last day of his absurd contract, and then he’ll be off on a free to play some retirement football in Turkey or Gelsenkirchen.

   I know the debate about Europa (would we want it or not) rumbles on. I listened to my two favorite Arsenal podcasts yesterday, and was interested to hear James from the Arsecast say we’d be fools not to want Europa, and Clive from Arsenal Vision say we’ll be better off without it. I respect both guys a lot, but I’m with Clive, mostly. It was worrying, though, to hear Arteta say that one option was “nothing” in terms of incoming transfers, and you don’t need to be a genius to figure out he means “without Europe.”

   Oh well. Whatever about what we want, I remain doubtful we’re capable of finishing 7th anyway, so we’ll just have to make the best out of this sh*tshow.

   1. Selling 4-5 players?

      We sold 8 in 2019/20 and let another four go on a free transfer.

      Big clubs do it all the time but agree that it’s oddly rare at Arsenal. But if we want to “pull a liverpool” we have to go back to what they did in 2016/17 when they sold 7 players: Benteke, Ibe, Allen, Squirtle, Ilori, Alberto, and cleared Sakho off the books as well.

      Then they used that money to by Mane and Wijnaldum.

      1. Exactly. If we want to rebuild and not take a decade we have to be less clingy about players who have failed to deliver but ‘might just come good under the right conditions’. Do what Liverpool did: liquefy the assets and buy quality even though it inevitably means you have to buy fewer players than you sell.

7. That Ozil/tick/back paragraph is a joy.

8. The Ozil salary issue is mind-bogglingly frustrating, because it cuts against so many expectations. 1. Wouldn’t expect a “world-class organization” like Arsenal to promise to pay so much money to a player whose talent was never in question but whose work ethic has always been in question. 2. Wouldn’t expect 2 managers to completely freeze out the same talented player, failing to use him even when it could benefit the club. 3. Wouldn’t expect both the player and the club to lie about the reason for the player’s failure to play; sometimes referring to previously unmentioned injuries or illnesses and sometimes failing to even pretend . 4. Wouldn’t expect a putative world-class talent to engage in behavior that indicates a preference to not play but to continue to collect a salary.

   1. Can’t answer for the others but in regards to 1. , Arsenal risked losing both Ozil and Sanchez for nothing so it looks like they pushed the boat out for Ozil.

      In hindsight it was a mistake, but Arsenal also would have been slaughtered for letting both of their star players go for nothing.

9. Sadly, you can make a case for almost everyone on the squad leaving except a half dozen or so players. Your list didn’t even include Auba, who I can’t imagine wants to stay unless we are silly enough to throw him Ozil money.

   Agree that the midfield is has to be the highest priority; this is by far the worst Arsenal midfield I’ve ever watched. It’s so bad that I almost think the club should buy four or five midfielders this summer and fill in the gaps with loans, free transfers, or youth players. Of course, this assumes we are still high on Saliba and can get the born-again-Mustafi for next year to keep the back line in decent shape.

   1. Based on reports Auba’d be happy to stay for 3 years at 250k a week.

      1. Would you sign up for 3 years of early 30s Auba at that price?

         I ask because I’m conflicted. Once bitten twice shy and all that.

         1. I think he’s worth it. Even at a very conservative estimate of value per goal, and with his downturn coming, I think he could easily pay us back.

            He’s scored 20 goals this season. Incredible, when you think about it.

   2. You didn’t see Selley, Bentley and Jensen?

      There’s a reason George Graham told Seaman and the back four always to punt the ball over the midfield and down channels for Wright, Merson, Campbell or Smith to chase. They were the worst midfield in Arsenal’s history.

      1. You could also include Morrow and Hillier! I suppose you could argue that that they were there to do the job George Graham asked of them. If the strategy was to get the ball to Ian Wright as quickly as possible, then why bother with ball players? At least there was a clarity as to what was expected. The current midfield don’t even have that. No real identity or sense or purpose.

10. My problem is selling while not knowing who suits your style of play or not. As individuals we can judge them based on their specific attributes which may have been utilized wrongly by other coaches, but unless Arteta puts his foot down and forces his style of play to be implemented, he can then weed out the players who do not fit. Right now we re playing a back 3, which I have a feeling isn’t what Arteta wants long term, so the players might be playing a shambles in a structure that does not suit them.

    Who knows, but all the players mentioned might be the players best suited to playing Arteta’s style instead of some of our favorites. I mean, last season we complained having too many technical players in forward areas in Iwobi, Mkhi, Ozil and Ramsey (sort of), and no dribblers. Three were not liked much and their leaving was almost heralded, but now we have a lack of technical players in the final third, only direct players.

    Liverpool didn’t sell anyone who fit. Origi is still playing there, not because he is one of the best strikers out there, but because he fits. Lovren, Otamendi and Henderson aren’t the best players in their positions, but they are one of the best players for the football their teams play.

    I hope Arteta stops compromising and asserts his vision of how his team plays, then gives everyone a fair chance to show what they bring to his style of play and then sell those who don’t fit well, and keep those who do. Even if it means all the players mentioned stay and beloved players leave.

    1. I tend to go with you Devlin,Emery allowed the sale of many who would have helped him cos he favoured a funny style,arteta speaks well of style of play in regards to recruitment,so all listed players might not not be if he wants them but for raising funds.but I hope he sticks to his style cos this back 3 isn’t it.shows Emery was wrong to allow the sale of so many earlier

11. Would be a very big mistake to let Lacazette go. Nketiah still has a long way to prove that he can even have the career that Lava has had. This is besides the point that a club like Arsenal needs 3 strikers.
    Sokratis will not play for Arteta, if clearly Arteta prefers Luiz to him. But I’m not sure he can fetch any transfer close to what you mentioned.
    Guendouzi may be good but he’s not worth the trouble. So he needs to go. Torreira too. I agree that he may not be cut for the premier league.
    Thomas Partey can adequately replace both players, if we keep Xhaka. But I do not believe Xhaka should always be a guaranteed starter because he like Guendouzi is not a specialist anything, and we do need midfield specialist both in defensive and creative parts.

    We need ball carriers and playmakers at Arsenal. And we need experienced ones. If everyone has given up on Ozil as it now shows, then we need new playmakers. I like Coutinho but I prefer someone we can build the team around and not someone who will come in on loan. The only loan deal I can tolerate is if we can get Ramsey back from Juventus.

    But a Ramsey type of player has to be a priority. Someone who can play beside a DM. Plus a Cazorla type, who dictate and dominate opponents. One good quality of Wenger’s teams is that they love to dominate the opponent. We need to get back to that.

    I think we can solve the problem of the defence, if we can balance the midfield. Arsenal always had Cygan, Senderos, Djourou, Squillaci or someone who raises pur blood pressure. The difference now is that the midfield is not up to scratch. Arteta would know this because he was part of a Wenger midfield rebuild, and he would know that the better the midfield got after he came the less he had to play in the team. Perhaps that’s where his ruthlessness with Guendouzi and Ozil comes from.
    But we must not forget the point you made about Martinez. He has tasted the limelight now and he has validation that he’s good. This may mean that he would not want a part to play on the permanent bench when Leno returns, and Leno is too good to bench.

12. UPDATE: Maitland-Niles wants out

    https://theathletic.com/1928376/2020/07/14/exclusive-ainsley-maitland-niles-leave-arsenal-mikel-arteta-arsenal-transfer/

    1. Cool.

       1. Best run club in England.

13. A mate gave me a starter so I made my first ever sourdough today. Yay me!

    1. congrats! That’s quite an accomplishment!

14. What does everyone think about the idea of selling Pepe. His first season has been a big disappointment and he could still probably bring in more money then almost anyone in the squad. The attacking players we have purchased from France have all seen a major drop in their productivity in terms of end product when they play in England. Chamakh, Gervinho, Giroud, Lacazette have all seen a significant decreases compared with the numbers they put up in France. That does not mean that Pepe is destined to follow suit but he has certainly underperformed so far.

    1. I’ve got an idea. Why don’t we ask Klopp if he’d swap Mane for Pepe? I’m sure he’d be amenable to the idea.

15. I suspect Juve would be overjoyed to either loan or sell Ramsey on the cheap if we took some of his wages off their books.

    1. both of your suggestions would be not great, I think. taking a bath on Pepe right now would mean the club won’t have money to re-invest in other players and Ramsey – is a legend – but also not worth anywhere near the salary that Juventus are stuffing in his pockets.

       He also wouldn’t help Arsenal in the area we most need from a midfielder: someone to create, carry, move forward.

       I’d rather keep Ceballos.

16. Considering our predicament (plummeting down the table, no European football) … plus the uncertainty regarding fans being allowed into the stadium next season (BTW see SwissRamble’s recent modeling of the potential financial impacts – we need to go high risk:

    – Sell Auba and Laca;
    – get in another cheaper striker;
    – bulk of the spend on a CAM and DM;
    – what’s left on a ball playing CB (Stones?).

17. This post is spot on, been banging this drum for sometime.

    Few changes required, sell everyone who is not part of Mikel’s plan, including giving away oziL for free, what a cancer, if you do not agree than look at his ability to press and his assist record the last two years if you need convincing.

    Here is my list of who stays:
    Marinelli, Saka, Eddie, Nelson, ESR, AMN (if he wants to play right back full time or off) Tierney, and Martinez. That is it, get rid of ALL the players who can’t find the fitness, or whom do not possess the technical ability and heart to get the job done.

    All the other positions fill up from our youth academies.

    Many will say what about Soares, Mari and Luiz, if they want to compete for their place and they can hold it down, then fine, as I believe they are all signed on low rent wages, except Luiz this year.

    Many of the rest are injury prone, had major surgery or are just not good enough. (Bellerin, Holding, Chambers, Kola, and Torriera)

    You say what about Laca, Auba, Pepe, Leno, Xhaka, Elneny, and Mustafi: sell them for what we can get for them, they are not part of Mikel’s long term plans. The club can offer to restructure their contracts to help the club, incentive based, if not sell them.
    The club would be in a positive cash position to rebuild as that is what this club needs. A few on this list will sell for a pretty penny.

    If the top tarnished brass think that 10th place is acceptable, then continue doing what we have and AFC will continue to slide downwards towards the Championship. Yes, it could happen to our club.

18. Joshuad repeated the broken record in the post and I am in violent agreement. Ain’t nothing gonna improve us more than a quality CDM and to build around that.
    Arteta has to help develop some cojones for these players. Another broken record but for how many years do we have to endure watching us get kicked off the pitch? Forget about Vieira, no one could boss Bergkamp or most of that side. The Iceman would be just as happy to throw an elbow in your ribs, as dance past you or leave you high and dry with his cultured passing.

    1. Problem is that Arsenal players get booked more easily and frequently for the most minute of infractions. Kicking someone or breaking a leg isn’t a specialty or talent to learn. Anyone with two feet can kick someone else, anyone with an arm can elbow someone else. Its not a quality that those players had. When we speak of our former players, these tendencies seem to distract from the true qualities that made them really special.

       Being thuggish is easy, even Santi could break a leg or elbow anyone (Height permitting), that’s why its done by the lesser talents. Arsenal of old was just allowed to do the same as the opposition.

       We don’t have a problem of not kicking back, we have a problem of referees not allowing us to retaliate or give back as good as we get.

       1. Actually… Arsenal of old were not allowed to kick people. We had more red cards than any other team. Vieira still is top of the red cards list with 8. Arsenal got 35 red cards during the seasons when we were winning titles.

          What happened with Arsenal is that we stopped kicking.

19. Tim.

    I agree 100% about Ramsey. No way we could justify the wages juve have him.

    Pepe might still bring a high transfer fee this summer but his value will probably go down dramatically if he has another season like this one

20. I’m with the sell Auba and Laca group. Eddie, Gabi, Saka and Pepe are the future. Solidify the midfield as everyone has said. Buy 2 really strong midfielders. There will be injuries, so we need at least 2 really quality players there with Torreira, Dani and Willock to back up and support them. Sell Xhaka if at all possible. If Mari and Saliba form a decent partnership, you have a squad we can build on.

21. On a related note, there was an article over at the Athletic on the giant transfer disaster that Barca has been for the last 5-10 years. We always felt like we wanted to be like Barca. Now we’re approaching Barca levels of transfer crap. Over the last 5 years, how many deals have been a success for more than 1 yr? Auba and Leno? How much money have we frittered away either on bad incoming players, bad contracts, or terrible returns on players leaving? Hoping that Pepe isn’t the latest big mistake in a long line of large ones.
    We have to get things fairly correct this summer. If Auba leaves, we’re in danger of not being a mid-table team, but a relegation battling one.

22. I think there is a strong case for selling Lacazette while we still could get a reasonable fee. He just turned 29 which is not really that old but his productivity has really dropped in the last 1 1/2 seasons which is a lot longer then just a bad run of form. Some players fall off earlier then others and you have to be concerned about Laca. This is about the age when both Giroud and Alexis Sanchez stopped scoring goals.

    1. Except for that goal that Giroud scored against us in the Europa Final. That hurt.

       1. no, giroud scored a goal, got an assist, and won a penalty…involved in three of the four goals chelsea scored.

23. I’d rather think about it in terms of who I have now that I want to build around. If I’m Arsenal, this is what I’m asking myself:
    -What’s my system?
    -Which of the players I have right now will still be first choice in that system in 2-3 years?

    Arteta wants the ball. He wants to press high. He wants quality on the ball and energy and hunger for the ball off of it. He wants speed all over the pitch. He wants absolute tactical precision. He wants total commitment to the cause. He wants team players.

    Of the players we have right now, who fits those descriptions now? How about in 2-3 years? I give you my rank list for the squad according to these requirements, contract status and age.

    Tier One: Players who fit now and still fit in 2-3 years. It’s almost a full team but light in midfield. In order of likelihood to still be here and contributing.

    Saka
    Martinelli
    Leno
    Tierney
    Pepe
    Lacazette
    Torreira
    Bellerin
    Xhaka (Until we find someone better… he’s a lock.)
    Aubameyang

    Tier two: Players who kind of fit now and face a battle to stick. It’s most of the squad. In loose order. And a lot of this can change quickly.
    Willock
    Nketiah
    Martinez
    Soares
    Holding
    Saliba
    Chambers
    Mari
    Nelson
    Smith-Rowe
    Luiz
    Mustafi
    Kolasinac
    Maitland-Niles
    Guendouzi

    The personae non grata. Players who don’t fit and everyone knows it.
    (Guendouzi)
    Mkhitaryan
    Ozil
    El-Neny
    Sokratis

    So who do we need to complement the top tier? Thomas Partey or someone like him.

    1. Torreira is not Tier I. Too small for the Premier League, I think that’s been proven. He should be sold.

       1. If he’s healthy, who is ahead of him in midfield right now?

       2. Yeah, much too small. A shame, but there you are. Yet another bad buy. Our ability to buy the wrong players is jaw dropping. Arteta was saying in the press how impressed he was with Liverpool’s ability at buying players who fit their system. Really, Sherlock? I’d have thought that was bleeding obvious. Hardly rocket science.

24. Downside of selling Lacazette is he is still our second best goal scorer. We desperately need firepower but its unlikely we can afford to buy a proven goal scorer because they cost so much. I saw a stat that we have only won 1 game under Arteta when we did not keep a clean sheet. Even with a possible golden boot winner we are still 7th in the league in goals scored. Eddie Nketiah works really hard upfront but we certainly can’t count on him to score goals next season and we don’t really have anyone else we can count on to score.

    1. Bill – There’s some chicken and egg stuff related to our goal-scoring. Why don’t we score? Because we take fewer shots, as Tim has demonstrated. Why don’t we take as many shots? Because we create only from the wings, and not from the midfield. Have you seen the stats for chance creation and goal scoring from midfield? We are abysmal. https://dailycannon.com/2020/07/stats-show-arsenal-arent-creating-enough-from-midfield/ My contention is that with better athletic, creative midfielders, we get more service and chance creation. Even if our goal scorers aren’t as clinical, with more chances, we will score at least as many – if not more goals,especially if we get someone who can score from midfield. It’s a lot of ifs, no doubt, but we’ve tried to win with just great strikers and it’s not working. We need to revamp and win with better midfielders.

25. LaGunner

    Clearly it’s better to have more creativity but I have always believed the most critical factor in scoring goals is to have the best goal scorers playing upfront. Look at the arsenals history since we broke up the invincibles. Arsene built his sides around his creative midfielders and passing skill and chance creation. However if you look at the actual number of goals we scored every season we have never been a high scoring team. If you compare Arsenes team to Fergies team from 06-13 we always had more creative midfield play and their midfielders were not nearly as technically skilled or creative but they out scored us every season during those years because they had better goal scoring forwards. In the 15-16 season we had ozil Cazorla wilshere Ramsey and our passing stats were fantastic but that season we only scored 65 goals and were 5th in the league in scoring goals and that was the fewest of any arsenal team in that decade. The problem was our goal scoring forwards were not good at turning the creativity into actual goal scorers.

    The point of all of that is not to downplay the importance of midfield creativity but it seems clear from the last 15 years of arsenal history that in terms of scoring more goals, having the best goal scoring forwards is the most critical factor.

26. All those years of Wengerball and our creative attractive attack minded football but we never scored a lot of goals. I think the 3rd place in the table in goals scored is our highest finish since 2005.

    1. Bill – This is all true of Arsenal from years past. We were a CL level team – we even were contending for the league title in 15. But we are not that kind of team anymore. We aren’t even close. It makes sense to pay big money to strikers when you are legit title contenders. Or just on the fringe of qualifying for CL. We are now a midtable team. Our flaws are deep and not fixable with one or 2 players. We need big changes.
       I think Arteta’s plan is to build in 3 stages.
       1) Solidify the defense. We’ve done quite well in this respect. We’ve decreased the number of goals allowed. And we hope with Saliba and a healthy Mari we’ll continue to show improvement here.
       2) Gain control in midfield. Recruit players who can run, tackle, win 1v1’s and create chances. And maybe score a few goals. Should be our focus this summer and next season.
       3) Have impact in the front line. Develop our youth – Eddie, Gabi, Pepe and Saka. Add a world class striker when everything else is humming, if we’re not scoring with the young guys. But we have proven that great goal scorers without service won’t turn around the club. We bought them when we believed we were on the cusp of returning to CL – which we almost managed last year. But we’re now nowhere near that level.
       We’re wasting our money on Auba and Laca right now. For a midtable club (which is what we are) in our financial position, we can’t afford to pay big bucks to world class strikers while we need a rebuild everywhere else. Use the sale of our strikers to build the engine room and establish our style of play. Lay down the bucks once that’s in place. Next summer, or the following. Auba, as great as he is, can’t rescue this team without big changes. And we don’t have the budget to make big changes without selling him.

       1. I believe if we add 3 good midfielders to this team without buying any defender we will make top 4.

27. LAGUNNER

    Fair enough. I understand your points and I am certainly not trying to downplay the importance of the midfield. However, you win by scoring goals and preventing the other team from scoring. However history suggests the way to score is to have players upfront who are good at scoring goals and you prevent goals from being scored by havIng a strong back 5. Again my opinion is mainly built on what I have seen over the last 15 years. Arsene built the club around his mid field and his post invincible teams were not good enough at preventing goals from being scored and we never scored enough to compensate for the suboptimal defense. Fergie‘s ManU teams won with top quality goal scorers and top defenders but workmen like midfield players who were mostly role players. Liverpool rebuilt by investing most of their money in the back with VVD and Allison and the front with their great front 3.

28. All that said I agree with Josh that we do need a better defensive midfielder

    1. correction, arsenal don’t have a defensive midfielder. it’s why they either do a double-pivot or 3 center backs.

       1. Torreira may not be the second coming of Claude Makalele but he is that type of player. At 24 years of age he is entering his prime. He will grow into his body and into the PL even better, and he has already been good enough. I think we can count him as a defensive midfielder.

          1. Wishful thinking.

29. i feel your pain, tim. it’s lead to some interesting takes on our beloved forum.

    first, aubameyang. he wants 3 years for £250k a week. he’s already on £200k a week and i think he’s earned the extra £50k a week. he’s a bpl-proven goal scorer, a leader, and is always fit and available. besides, how much can arsenal possibly get for a 31-year old striker, £35 million? come on. this is a basketball lay up…pay the man and let him finish his career an arsenal legend.

    to keep lacazette? he’s the best center forward arsenal have. arteta is forced to ask center forwards to do a ton of work…that’s why nketiah plays, not because he’s better than lacazette. if you notice, before eddie’s red card, neither he nor laca started consecutive games. nor did either player play the full 90 minutes. it’s because of how much arteta asks them to do defensively, which diminishes their cutting edge in front of goal. the fact that eddie is not available is why arteta had lacazette play as a false 9 against spurs…not to mention that lacazette has to play the full 90 minutes for two more games against liverpool and man city but i digress. arsenal could sell lacazette but how much would it cost to improve on him? they need to stop stepping down as they have done: from henry to adebayor/van persie to giroud to lacazette. i like the look of martinelli as a striker but is he a champions league-level center forward?

    if martinez gets called up to argentina and plays, arsenal need to sell him. like fabianski, he’s too good to be a back up and they could be able to cash in on him for about £10 million.

    1. Martinez is currently head and shoulders our best player. Sell him? He’s keeping us in games, so why do that?

       1. The thing is, having two goalkeepers who are ready for 1st team football is a must, as Leno’s injury shows. The next in line is Matt Macey, who is a tall skinny kid they got from Bristol Rovers. Promising, but nothing much more. Sell Martinez and you immediately have to buy another keeper. 10 mil gets you nothing. Goalkeeper is possibly the only position on the pitch I feel relatively comfortable with.

          1. Who had most touches of the ball?
             Who made most successful passes into the attacking third?

             I haven’t personally checked the stats, but apparently, it was Martinez!

             Says a lot about our team, doesn’t it?

30. Aubameyang’s market value is peaked. We MUST sell, in my humble opinion. To not sell is quite frankly stupid – why? Because we’re in REBUILD mode. Sure he gets us goals, but so long as Auba is here pulling 250k a week, it hampers our ability to offer good wages to younger players. We are not climbing back into the Europa League even until we rebuild from the ground up.

    I would try and sell Auba, Lacazette, Guendouzi, Mhyki, Elneny, AMN, Holding, Mavropanos… and Torreira. Sokratis may need to be released outright or sold to a Greek team for a bucket of Gatorade.

    In an ideal world we find a way to offload Pepe and Ozil, but sadly, that’s not realistic.

    If we decide to leverage Joorabchian and Edu and bring in another 6 or 7 Martinellis from the Brazil U-19 set-up, I’m all for it. Bring in Everton Soares and have a front line of Martinelli, Nketiah, Saka, Reiss-Nelson and Everton that has energy and pace for the high press.

    FYI – Thomas Partey is not coming and given his age, not a great investment. And I pray to God we don’t bring in Coutinho. I like him as a player, but not what we need at all.

    We just need to settle for being the new Ajax – develop young players, sell them off for massive profit and have a good run once in a while in a Cup or Europa League tournament. We will not win Champions League in my lifetime, and that’s OK, so why worry about top 4?

    1. do you really believe a bunch of talented youngsters with potential and no proven track record will survive in the premier league that is chocked full of experienced internationals?

       your approach lacks ambition so who worth having would want to come to arsenal? the club would be doomed.

       can you win with kids? yes, but not kids, alone. you want to ship out all of the senior players? that’s what’s wrong with arsenal’s midfield right now. not only that, but we saw what happened when the invincibles did that with extremely talented youngsters in reserves. what do you think will happen if arsenal do that with only marginal youngsters?

       i feel your frustration, jack, but come on, man.

       1. You all miss my point – forget winning. We just want to win enough to stay up. I just want to be entertained now by attractive attacking football played by up-and-coming youth.

          Say it with me now – we are not winning the Premier League. We are not winning the Champions League. We are not winning the Premier League. We are not winning the Champions League…

          Leicester was a once in a generation thing.

          FFP is dead. Football is won by the big boys with financial power . Liverpool took some other teams like Barca for suckers and have spent that money wisely. We don’t have Coutinho, Suarez or Sterling to sell.

          1. Doesn’t explain Wolves or Sheffield United, who are outperforming us and a couple of other “big clubs”. Leicester are still up there last time I looked.

    2. aubameyang’s value is peaked? compared to what? he’s 31-years old. who in their right mind would pay what arsenal paid for him, let alone this peak you’re talking about? arsenal would do well to sell him for half of what they bought him for. there’s no way you could pay for a player with aubameyang’s level of production and leadership for £30 million. it’s the smart move to pay him an extra £50k a week. sell reiss nelson and his salary is your £50k a week.

    3. 27 is now too old??? I get that you don’t like him and that’s fine but 27 is absolutely prime age for a player, especially a MFer.

       I think I get Coutinho a bit because he is such an intense creator and incredible dribbler.

       But I’d rather play Saka and also, I can’t believe we can afford Coutinho’s salary. That would be weird.

       1. I think if a market develops for Aubameyang it makes a lot of sense to sell, but if we re-up him for a reasonable amount then I am very happy with that. What we can’t have is acrimony between the camps and letting him leave on a free.

          And that sort of sums up the situation for most of our squad except for the building blocks and recent purchases.

          1. PSG would take Auba – Cavani is out and Icardi’s loan is coming to an end. Partner Auba with Mbappe and Neymar and that’s a pretty fearsome front three, the pace would be astonishing. So I think there’s a market.

       2. Why are we buying 27 year olds? Exactly like you say – that’s prime age. Thomas Partey needs to stay at Atletico (which apparently he’s doing) where he can play at the top level, not come help us with a rebuild project.

          We’re rebuilding. We have the right manager now, a real coach who can develop players and make them better. Give him young and hungry players, not established stars.

          1. Partey was never going to leave. I suspect it was agent talk to improve his contract at some point.

31. the single most significant (and cheapest) move arsenal can make is to get a good cdm. that changes everything. we suddenly see a team that looks more solid defensively, controls the midfield, and a more lethal attack. look at the invincibles when they lost gilberto to injury or the galacticos when they lost makalele to chelsea; two seemingly insignificant losses to the novice as neither put up big stats. what can’t be denied is when you have a top coach and the best collection of players money can buy and you still can’t win a championship without one seemingly insignificant piece as a cdm, that denial is a tough sell.

    a possibility is calum chambers. tim, you know you can’t trust the stats with the cdm position. he spent a year on loan at fulham to play at center back but a big-money signing that many on this forum touted for arsenal, jean michael seri, flopped at cdm. chambers was better and moved to cdm ahead of seri. he went on to win player of the year for fulham. i watched a few of his games at cdm and he looked quite good. it would be interesting to see if arteta could develop him.

    likewise, i’m not ready to dismiss elneny either. i recall reading that elneny didn’t leave arsenal due to frustration with a lack of playing time. he left in an effort to regain his best level by playing regular football so that he could come back and prove himself at arsenal. say what you want but that’s honorable; an international going out on loan to prove himself as if he’s an 18-year old prospect. i believe both chambers and elneny to be tactical upgrades to xhaka. arteta’s predecessors tried to force xhaka into a cdm role that he proved unsuitable for. it’s arteta’s call and i wouldn’t readily dismiss either player in that role.

32. will mesut feature today? i saw him in the training photos from yesterday…wearing nike boots for the first time since his real madrid days. i wonder what’s up with his sponsorship deal with adidas? meh.

    i just want arsenal to compete but salah looks hungry to win the golden boot. we’ll see.

33. How do you foul Giroud for a pen. Shameful defending.

34. Jack Action.

    Arsene tried the “project youth” idea once and he couldn’t make it work and that was before Man City and when Liverpool was on the way down. No way that is a viable strategy in today’s PL. In reality we have been trying to build our own superstars from the academy for 15 years and it has not worked. You can’t just turn on a switch and suddenly start developing youth players that you can sell for big money.

    1. We have no other route into the future.

       We do not have owners willing to invest their own money into the club.

       We are financially strapped, asking players to take pay cuts. Meagre transfer budgets.

       If we don’t go the Ajax/Dortmund route of bringing in young players and then selling them on for profit, we’re going to be just another Crystal Palace with mediocre veterans fighting for mid-table position. Gross. Count me out.

35. Josh

    I understand why Arteta is asking his CF to work so hard on defense that it inhibits their ability to score. The reality is we almost have to keep a clean sheet in order to win so playing defense first makes sense right now. However, the club struggles to score in the best of circumstances and using the player who lines up closest to the goal in the center of the pitch as an extra defender makes it even harder for us to score. It really limits our ceiling and IMO it’s not a viable long term strategy

    1. i agree that it’s not a viable approach, long term. that’s why i declare that arsenal need a cdm to take some defensive pressure off of the attacking players. if arsenal get a cdm, i believe it solves many of the team’s problems.

       1. I’d go even further. I’d get two.

36. HT: Couple of nice gifts from Liverpool, but hey, credit to Lacazette for his pressing on both.

    1. Interesting to see Arteta switch to a 4-2-3-1 (or something like that). Saka doesn’t seem quite sure what to do in his inside left role and Nelson is not tracking Robertson but somehow it’s 2-1 and good lord, I am not complaining.

       1. yeah, i’m not a fan of moving a young guy around so often the way arteta does with saka, but that’s me; i’d move the more experienced guys.

          likewise, i’m not too worried about pepe’s lack of pressure. he did pressure some times but isn’t quite fit and had to be judicious with his work. he was tired but i’m glad mikey left him out there the entire game.

          1. Seems like he’s trying different things with him, kind of like Wenger with Oxlade Chamberlain back in the day, which is a nice comp for where Saka is right now and ironic because he played against us today. I like Saka as a left wing/wingback because he’s so good at the final ball. He looked lost today trying to link play further inside and hardly affected the game. Maybe I missed it and he was great but I thought the game passed him by.

37. Never in doubt.

    1. I assume that’s ironic!

       Liverpool played like they had already booked and paid for their deck chairs on the beach. For that I am eternally grateful.

38. 2 games left that in theory we have a good chance to win. We still have a shot at the Europa league.

39. More than a bit of luck there, but I’m not complaining. Once we went up 2-1 and sat back, they didn’t get too many really good chances.
    Side note…continue to be disappointed in Pepe. Not only are we getting little end product for his cost, but a couple of times in this match I saw him basically walking around rather than pressing.

    1. Pepe looked less than enthusiastic, after a couple of goodish performances.

40. big up to rob holding. great to see a defender who cares about defending…and not afraid to talk a bit of smack to sadio mane. guys who said they were for selling this kid? nuts!

    1. He’s a real old fashioned defender. Powerful, committed, really cares about winning. You need those even in the modern game but his lack of first step quickness and security on the ball are “holding” him back from making the leap. With those characteristics he may end up at a club that likes a deep block, but Pep kept Otamendi around so there’s a chance for big Rob too if he develops his technique.

    2. Thought Holding had a good game overall. He seems to be the only CB on the squad that has the mental game. Today reminded me a bit of the Chelski game when Holding camped out between what’s his face Jazz Hands ears. I’m not ready to give up on him just yet. Although I do think that injury really set him back, much as Hector’s concussion did.

    3. Yes, I think he’s got something worth keeping. What he hasn’t got is a reliable “partner” at the back.

41. Tim
    Could you do a piece about Pertey’s attributes and how he could help our dysfunctional midfield ?
    I haven’t watched him play, but I’m sceptical whether he’s the magical fix to our midfield problems that he’s being made out to be.
    Is he alone sufficient to make our midfield fun coming again ?

    1. I meant *functioning again
       Damn autocorrect

42. I suspect there are more then a few Liverpool fans who will be complaining the reason VVD made that terrible back pass was because he was fouled and they probably believe with all their hearts that the refs did it intentionally to prevent them from getting to 100 points this season.

43. Don’t want Europa, do not need the expenses, travelling and injuries for a Cup we will not win.

    If you think we can beat manure with our current squad than we need to have some proper discussion.

    Mentioned before, go youth, high press, make the games against the other 16 teams exciting.

    With ffP being a mirage since it’s inception, AFC will never net spend our way to the top, especially with stan the maN being our absentee owner in every sense of the word!

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