Well we won! We vanquished the evil Southampton! We kept a clean sheet! We even kept their expected goals to a very reasonable 0.74! And it’s two games in a row now that Arsenal have managed to keep the opponents’ expected goals below 1, big chances conceded to 0 in this match and just 1 in the last match, and despite the loss to Brighton, it was the second match in a row which you could (again) see some directions that Arteta wants to take the squad.
Formation
Arsenal played a 343 with Tierney, Mustafi and Holding in center back; Saka and Bellerin the two wide midfielders and Ceballos and Xhaka in the midfield (right and left respectively). In front of them Arteta played Auba on the left, Nketiah (with his second start) in the CF role, and Pepe on the right.
This 343 is extremely strong on the left side because Xhaka is such a great left-footed passer and Saka is a strong player with ball at feet. Meanwhile Auba is a massive threat to either drop and collect to play in the ball for Saka on the overlap or make a forward run himself. Something we saw a lot of.
On the right, Pepe and Bellerin struggled to get a game going. Bellerin only completed 61% of his passes and Pepe only had 16 touches in 64 minutes. Ceballos was supposed to help with possession on that side – and with Mustafi on the right of a back three there could have been more to that half of the pitch – but they played like a unit which hasn’t had many matches together.
Pressure and Defense
Eddie Nketiah scored Arsenal’s opening goal by closing down on Southampton keeper Alex McCarthy but Eddie was also Arsenal’s most active presser throughout the match, pressing opponents 40 times (2nd most was Xhaka with 19).
Eddie didn’t have a perfect match but he’s doing the hard work that Aubameyang was doing before under Emery. Auba was Arsenal’s most-active presser by huge numbers (486 to 2nd best Guendouzi’s 384) so shifting some of that work onto Eddie is smart on Arteta’s part. That should help keep Auba’s legs fresher over the rest of the season.
Defensively, you can also see that Arsenal are starting to work together as a unit. There were several possessions where the team “set a trap” for the opposition player to dribble into and then close down the cul-de-sac to force a turnover. Arsenal made 169 pressures compared to Southampton’s 117.
However, Arsenal still need to work on efficiency and efficacy. The Gunners pressed 169 times but only won 40, one more than Southampton (who only pressed 117 times). And while Xhaka pressed 19 times, he only won 4 and he lost all 4 of his attempted tackles against dribbles. Ceballos was just as bad, winning just 1 of 18 pressures and 1 of 2 tackles against dribbles.
Both players did play a crucial role in recovering possessions against passes and playing the passing lanes; with Xhaka making 4 blocks against passes and Ceballos making 4 interceptions and 2 blocks. But it’s always going to be the sight of them pressing and getting rolled which will drive fans nuts. Arsenal’s biggest concern this summer (in the transfer market) has to be to secure the services of a top notch midfielder.
Carry on my wayward son!
Once again Bukayo Saka stole the show for Arsenal. He didn’t score nor assist (there were no assists for Arsenal in this match) but his carries, dribbles, and progressive passing stats were top quality.
Saka led the team in total distance carried (when the player dribbles with the ball unchallenged) and progressive carry distance (169 yds). He also won 3/3 dribbles and led all forwards/midfielders with 183 yrds progressive distance passing.
Saka also led the team in total progressive passes (4 – tied with Ceballos) and key passes (2), along with passes into the penalty area (2 – tied with Pepe) and crosses into the penalty area (1 – tied with Pepe).
He did have a defensive error leading to a shot which I don’t remember but I was technically at work during the match so I must have missed that bit.
Arteta praised Saka to the hilt after the match:
It’s in his hands. He has a manager that has total belief in him, he has a club that really supports him and he has team-mates who adore him for who he is. He’s such a nice boy, he’s very intelligent and he’s so willing to learn. He’s eager to be the best, he tries to be the best every day, and you can put him in different positions and he picks it up really quickly. Every decision he makes, he takes risks. I think he could have produced three goals today. The maturity he shows on the pitch is really good.
Guendouzi gone?
After the match Arteta was asked about Guendouzi, first about whether Arteta punished him and then about rumors making the rounds that Guendouzi has asked to be sold this summer.
Arteta flatly denied that Matteo was being punished for the antics at the end of the Brighton match and when pressed on other rumors (there’s a lot of smoke that the player asked to be sold and that he’s criticized Arteta’s management) declined to comment:
No. Whatever issue we have internally, I will resolve it in a private way. I explained that I cannot explain and that’s it.
It does look like there’s some unrest with Guendouzi and he’s been linked to Barcelona (in the Daily Mail) and a few other top clubs.
On twitter, I said it was fine if he wants to leave and mentioned that he “doesn’t progress the ball”. I was shown stats that prove he does in fact progress the ball:
- 2nd on the team in progressive passes/90 (10th among MFers in the League) – 6.75
- 2nd most progressive distance/90 (among Arsenal MFers, 13th in the League overall) – 282m
- 2nd in progressive distance carried/90 (among Arsenal MFers, 3rd in the League overall) – 200.6m
And there is a cute little graphic going around where if you take players who have at least 19 – 90s (Guendouzi has 19.4) and use just progressive carries and progressive passes/90 he stands out as 2nd only to Kovacic at Chelsea.
I drilled into that data and it is indisputable that using those three very specific criteria (and removing certain players like David Silva and Kevin de Bruyne) Guendouzi is one of the top midfielders in those two categories combined.
However in terms of shot creating actions Guendouzi stands out as one of the handful of players who have very high progressive passing per 90 but very low shot creation numbers. In other words, he has the ball a lot, he progresses the ball a lot, but for some reason his specific passes don’t turn into shots. In that regard he’s a lot like Harry Winks at Tottenham and Jordan Henderson at Liverpool. Maybe I’ll make a little cute chart of my own tomorrow.
The overall point here is that Guendouzi is an important player and does have skills (he also has some drawbacks) and I think he was brought in to replace Xhaka so it might be a shame to lose him. However, if the price is right and Arsenal can get in a MFer who passes well and defends well (it’s possible, teams do it all the time on a budget) then I think we should take the money.
Gotta up the possession game
It was another match in which Arsenal conceded more chances than they created – though the quality of chances were heavily in Arsenal’s favor – and this is down to the fact that Arsenal struggle to get hold of games when they have a lead.
That does seem to be something that Arsenal are working on but first things first, taking baby steps to get the defense settled.
Source for quotes:
https://www.arsenal.com/news/transcript-arteta-saka-guendouzi-and-more?amp
Source for stats:
https://fbref.com/en/matches/38757aa1/Southampton-Arsenal-June-25-2020-Premier-League
Guendouzi does come across as a bit difficult to deal with. But I seem to remember telling you he’d want to leave the same way you said Vieira did. I must admit I didn’t expect it to be so soon.
But his contract runs out in 2022, and I think that’s probably the real issue. He’d want more money and guarantees in game time from us and we’re not prepared to offer either. A transfer would be a win-win. We turn a tasty profit on him, he gets to go to a big club. Hopefully we use that profit to buy the midfielder that we need.
As you know, I tend to think “everything is about money” for players and I suspect the same here again with Guendouzi. My first thought was that he is angry about the pay cut and knows he will earn many times more over in Spain.
Probably what happened. Actually, was he one of the players to refuse the pay cut? Not the only reason, but it could explain some friction between him and Arteta.
Tim, Just watched the funniest thing ever. There was some far right redneck rally in Olympia, which is near you I think. Anyway, Sacha Baron Cohen came dressed in disguise, somehow managed to not only gatecrash, but also got on stage with a back up band and sing a song. Even got the crowd to sing along. As pranks go it was priceless. It’s on YouTube and Twitter. Not to be missed
If Guendouzi doesn’t want to be at the Arsenal so be it.
Playing for the Club is a massive privilege and if he isn’t smart/mature enough to realise it then he can kindly fuck off.
i think guendouzi is a fantastic signing. he’s young, talented, and fearless. the problem with guendouzi is not him, it’s the club and how the team is built. likewise, guendouzi was not meant to replace xhaka, but ramsey. in fact, he did replace ramsey as the arsenal #8 last season; xhaka played as a #6 under emery.
the problem with the build of the team is that there are no mentors to provide direction for a talented young player like him. arsenal allowed ramsey, wilshere, coquelin, santi, and even mkhitaryan to leave while ostracizing mesut. all of these players have played key roles in winning silverware and could have helped bring guendouzi along but they’re gone. what’s worse is the club expects arteta to somehow be the manager and the mentor; that’s not how it works.
…and you’re right about not wanting to take a pay cut. what other team has asked that of their players? it’s greed, for a billionaire to ask that from young players who have such a short shelf life on their ability to earn.
The only way I can think it would be remotely justifiable is if they said it will lead to the club being able to build a winning side. Like they operate with salary caps in the NBA for instance.
Yup. This!
Guendouzi is a good player with obvious talents, but he’s still far too dopey to be trustworthy. Some of his forward passes are without thought for the receiver, and his defensive positioning, especially for aerial duels, is all over the place. I do think that’s something he can rectify though, and when he does he’ll be some player.
If we can get a good fee for him and reinvest in somebody more ready made, I’ll be all for it.
Guendouzi leaving is a bad thing. Despite his inconsistency and weak areas he’s played some really good stuff for us. Did he get his head turned somewhere along the way to get on the bad side of Arteta of all people? If he goes to Spain I’m sure he’ll be reminded of his Ligue 2 beginnings by the class of a Tony Kroos or a Casimiro or even like a phoenix risen from the ashes, the magnificent Santi Cazorla.*
*Before the shutdown Santi scored 8 goals from midfield in the Spanish league, providing a further 5 assists. Defensively, he won 44% of his tackles and 52% of his duels, to go along with 4 clearances, and 8 interceptions. (Source: Sportskeeda)
Maybe we could get Santi back in his place (heart eyes)
A nice win. I so think Arteta has been able to change much with our attack. We still get most of the joy down the left wing and we struggle to control the game against most teams. However, Arteta has been able to get the team to play with more energy, intensity and concentration on the defensive end. That has made us a tougher team to beat which is something that neither emery or Ljundberg could do.
Guendouzi plays in the middle of the field and because he touches the ball a lot he fills up the stat sheet but just like someone like Elneny the stats can be misleading and I don’t think he gives the team much in the way of significant positive influence on the attacking end. He has probably been on the pitch for more minutes then any other midfielder in the last 2 years and our central midfield has been almost devoid of creativity and positive attacking drive during that time. Its certainly not all his fault but I don’t think he has given us any real positive impetus during all of those minutes. He is still young and he may improve but if we can get a good fee for him then lets take the money and use it to help rebuild the squad.
I doubt that anyone still believes Arteta is saving Ozil or leaving him out of the lineup because of some complex “tactical reason”. I suspect Arteta believes at this point in his career Mesut’s defensive liabilities outweigh any positive attacking influence or creativity he could provide.
He’s clearly said why he has left him out and it’s due to his level of fitness. He’s not physically ready yet and Mikel has alluded multiple times now when asked to expand on the “tactical reasons” that Mesut was physically behind the rest of the group due to a personal situation. It’s a simply a matter of timing…
Source: https://www.football365.com/news/arsenal-mikel-arteta-mesut-ozil-reacted-dropped
Let’s wait & see if he will start on Sunday & then judge his performance accordingly considering Arsenal have created next to nothing in the 3 games since restart…
Hi man.
I mean this in the best possible way because I do think it’s funny.
I read your initial comment and started skimming it to get to the part where (I assumed) you’d mention the degradation of Ozil, as is your want, and when I got to the end I thought, there you go Jeremy, you went looking for a reason to be an a$$hole and the guy proved you wrong.
And then I saw your follow up comment and it genuinely made me smile, in a good way, because I know that all is right with the world 🙂
Josh
Realistically we could not keep players like Mkhitaryan, Wilshere because their wage levels grossly outweighed whatever contributions they could make. I am sure Juve would love to have a do over and let us keep Ramsey because he hardly plays for them. However, there was no way we could keep Ramsey given the wages Juve offered him. I would love to have Santi but his long prognosis was not positive at the time we let him go. . Ozil is being “ostracized” because he is no not very good anymore.
We could have offered Ramsey those wages if we didn’t also offer them to Ozil.
If you want to look at one decision that really sunk the club, it was the decision to resign Ozil to that ridiculous contract.
arsenal agreed mkhitaryan wages; they should own that.
wilshere and cazorla were willing to stay but left on a free the same summer because arsenal allowed them to leave, not because of wages….the same summer they extended xhaka and pulled ramsey’s contract.
ozil is very good and he always has been. he still has one of the highest completion percentages in the world in the final third…that’s the place where it’s most difficult to complete a pass. its arsenal’s lack of a cdm that changes the dynamic in the way that they play and limits everyone in the team, from ozil to lacazette, to pepe, to aubameyang. the double-pivot means the #8 can’t push up the way ramsey did, which limits arsenal’s options in the box.
bottom line, the team is poorly constructed. the same as post-invincibles, arsenal did too much change too quickly with too little foresight. i get that it’s easy to blame players but come on, dude.
if Guendouzi came through hale end would we be more supportive of him?
he is only 21 and it’s not his fault he is picked in front of our home grown .
A team like Arsenal whose resources are not unlimited can’t keep a roster full of high wage under productive players. That was the major problem Arsene left for his successors.
In his 2 seasons in PL games Guendouzi has played over 3800 minutes and he has 0 goals and 1 assist. The me the other stats should be easily overshadowed by those 2 stats. He gives us zero endproduct. For all the passes he makes and all the times he touches the ball it seems like he should have created an occasional assist and scored at least 1 goal just by happenstance.
Ola! Guendouzi is overrated. He may progress the ball statistically, however even under Arteta he fails to present himself as an outlet for the CBs when they’re under duress, but asks for and receives the ball in space in the half channels, he avoids the middle and congested areas where he’d be able to help create overloads. Then because of this he has to dribble closer to his targets bogging the tempo down. He’s the polar opposite of Torreira who stays central, makes sharp runs to open up for the defenders and then takes a minimal amount of touches to move the ball. Plus defensively he’s shite. No awareness at all.
Guendouzi can go. I’m so many ways Guendouzi is the polar opposite of who Arteta was as a player; savvy, minimalist, disciplined. I’m not surprised the manager doesnt rate him.
Agree with Bill’s comments about Guendouzi being a stat sheet stuffer in the vein of Elneny. For all his activity and eagerness to be on the ball, aside from the assist for Auba against Sp*rs, I can’t remember any moments of real incision. This is of course magnified by our other MFs lack of end product. I don’t know if there’s a way to quantify how much someone dawdles on the ball but he consistently fails the eye test in this regard — totally kills the tempo. I would love to see Willock get more B2B minutes in his place.
I think Guendouzi is a tweener. I realize that is not a standard football term but what I mean is his game is in the nebulous area somewhere in between being an attacking midfielder and a defensive minded player. His lack of end product precludes him from being an effective attacking player and he is certainly not a defensive minded midfielder. I know this is a broad generalization but tweeners tend to fill the rosters on mid and lower table teams but very few are effective long term first team starters on champions league level teams
defending guendouzi, remember that less than 2 years ago, he was a teenager playing in the french second division. second, arsenal don’t have a competent cdm, which affects the productivity of EVERYONE. third, goals and assists aren’t a metric that accurately portray value as a box-to-box midfielder. vieira is the gold standard and he didn’t record many goals or assists. neither did coquelin but how effective was their influence on the way that arsenal played? our attacking players didn’t have to do so much defending because of their contributions to the side. guendouzi is still super young and his talent and potential is there for all to see. you don’t simply jettison a prodigy like him for a few clams.
more important, there are no mentors to help him develop. even vieira, after leaving the great ac milan that was full of champions, had adams, keown, and petit (also champions) to give him direction and provide leadership in north london. guendouzi has xhaka.
jack, your assertion that guendouzi doesn’t show for cb’s in duress is simply false. he always makes himself available, sometimes to the detriment of the team being caught in possession but the kid doesn’t hide. likewise, he’s not wrong because he’s not like torreira, just different. arteta played cdm nothing like cazorla but both were effective.
it’s just silly to throw the baby out with the bath water. many were saying the same thing about van persie because of his injury record, but when he stayed fit, he showed his peerless quality. how much do you think arsenal would get for him? i’m willing to bet the house that it’s signifiantly less that he’ll be worth in two years…not to mention how much it would cost to upgrade him adequately. arsenal should be patient with special youngsters.
If he does not sign a new contract, then in two years we will get zero for him 😉
it’s all Jimmy Hills fault…
Josh
Patrick Vieira had either a goal or assist about every 4.7 games. Matteo has 1 assist and no goals in 59 games. In today’s game I think you want some productivity from your midfield and the defensive midfielder is not going to score or assist so I think you want “box to box” player to at least have the possibly scoring or assisting. Ramsey and Cazorla were good examples. Assuming 3 central midfielders I don’t think you want to regularly start a midfield where 2/3 are not even a threat to score or assist.
I agree fully with Bill, and this is something I have been saying since he came.
He does a lot of running around but actually does very little.
The running around flatters to deceive.
So many people go on and on about how wonderful he is and what a great prospect, but I see nothing of that.
I believe a lot of it is simply wishful thinking.
The mistake was Emery playing him so often when he came as well.
He should have started with the under 23s and been coached to manage his running around to be more purposeful and constructive.
He came from the French 2nd or 3rd Division, where he was I suspect for a good reason.
If someone wants to pay £40m for him I would run as fast as I could to them and sign a deal.
Whilst we play without Ozil, we will continue to create so few chances.
I suspect that Arteta is concentrating on getting the defence right, so he is loading the team with players who are there to defend first and foremost.
Any attacking is to be done by counterattack.
That plan was destroyed in the first 20minutes against Man$ity, so he tried it again with different players against Brighton and then lost Leno.
So he tried it a third time against Soton, but we only succeeded because their goalkeeper made 2 mistakes.
Otherwise, they were the better team and we had little or no real creativity.
JJGSOL
I suspect the reason Arteta is not starting Ozil is because our creativity and attacking effectiveness was not any better when he has played this year. We don’t score many goals with or without Mesut and Arteta probably recognizes that keeping the defense stable makes us tougher to beat and give us the best chance to get results. I don’t believe for a second that Arteta is leaving Ozil on the bench for any reason other then he thinks the team has a better chance to win without him in the lineup. I suspect Arteta believes at this point in his career Ozil’s defensive liabilities outweigh any positive influence has is able to give us on the attacking end.
Just to follow up on the productivity from the box to box players. Ramsey scored or assisted roughly every 3rd game and Cazorla scored or assisted in every 2.1 games. Ideally, we certainly do not want to consistently start a lineup with a box to box midfielder who gives us basically zero threat to score or assist.
Pretty much agree with most of the comments made. Guendouzi is “busy” and does move the ball forward, but flatters to deceive. He very rarely looks “dangerous”. Given our current financial situation, if a club like Barcelona came in with big money, I’d bite their hand off. The worst that could happen is that we let him run his contract down, which is what normally happens. I can’t believe we couldn’t find better options in midfield, which would suit the style of football Arteta wants to play.
your argument is nonsense. cazorla had time playing as an attacking midfielder. likewise, santi took free kicks, corners, and penalties. guendouzi did none of that. if you take away the set pieces alone, i guarantee santi’s goal/assist number goes way down, especially if you only consider his time as a cdm.
how many goals did arsenal concede when ramsey abandoned his midfield duties in search of glory?
a more accurate assessment would be how many goals from open play have arsenal midfielders scored since emery arrived or even since cazorla got injured…because that was the last time arsenal had a competent cdm. that position matters so much. arsenal use a double-pivot, meaning the #8 can’t advance into scoring positions the way that ramsey often did.
what makes you think any club is going to pay big money for guendouzi? the same arguments that you’re making is the same arguments that any club bidding for him would make. and why do you judge guendouzi as if he’s the final product? he just turned 21 like the day before yesterday. lastly, how much do you think it will cost to replace him with a competent upgrade and do you believe arsenal would pay that money?
You’re comparing Guendouzi with Santi Cazorla?
You might want to think about just for one second.
“IF a club came in with big money”. Please note the IF.
guendouzi advances the ball forward. that’s called penetration and it’s the first principle of attack. when he’s not in the side, how many times have we watched arsenal hopelessly play lateral passes for two minutes? arsenal have four players ahead of him that are there to create chances and score goals.
i’m just a little less eager to pull the trigger on his talent while he’s still developing. if arsenal sell him, they’ll regret it.
You’re presupposing that’s his talent will develop. If Arteta has seen enough to suggest that, in his opinion it won’t, that might explain why he seems ambivalent about keeping him. I could give you a list as long as your arm of teenage prodigies who never really reached the heights that were expected of them and yet were kept on the books. Theo Walcott anyone?
One of the main reasons why players don’t always develop is down to temperament. What they have, or don’t have, between their ears. My guess is Arteta has seen something he doesn’t particularly like. You also mention the cost of replacing him. Might it be that he already has somebody in mind and lined up? Arsenal Football Club have an army of bean counters who do the sums.
Neither Guendouzi nor Ozil even in the match day squad.
That normally means one of two things.
There’s an attitude/disciplinary issue.
Or
They’ve informally accepted an offer and the club don’t want them injured.
We shall see.
make the most of the fa cup run.
going to be man u, city, or chelsea next.
Arsenal getting 10 mins of slating from the BT sports pundits Ferdinand and RvP after the game….
hold up what team won?
I watched RVP and Rio and have to say they were spot on. We don’t defend set pieces well, particularly towards the end of matches when our concentration goes. This has been the case for a good number of years. Do we defend with any real passion or commitment? Not really. That late equaliser came as no surprise. They had quite a few other chances to score. A missed header from Holding, a botched clearance from Kola using his “wrong foot”. Thankfully we got out of jail. A win is a win, which is important, but Arteta still has a lot of work to do.
yeah they are correct, but how many times have we seen man u scrape a draw like last night and they “never give up”
“sign if a great team if they win playing badly”
the lean towards exman u and micjy mousers on that channel is shocking.
my sjy contract is up at the end of the month and bt shortly after and after 25 years continuous I won’t renew it again..
Josh
Your point about Cazorla playing in a more attacking role especially in his first season is a good one. Comparing Guendouzi’s role to Cazorla is probably not reasonable.
Bill/ Josh
As I recall, in his partnership with Coquelin, Santi played more or less in front of the back 4. If anything it was Coq who pushed forward. Robert Pires recently said that Cazorla was the most talented player he’d played with. Some compliment, eh? Totally two footed. His capacity to control and distribute the ball, in tight spaces was unparalleled. You can throw any stats at me you like, but nothing covers the ability that man had. Guendouzi in comparison? Sorry, different level of ability altogether.
Citeh in the semis… unless newcastle perform a miracle.
Mark
No matter how you slice it, comparing Guendouzi and Cazorla is not a realistic and it was a poor choice on my part. The point I was trying to make is I think you want some production from the midfield and you want some threat to score a goal or create an assist. Realistically your defensive midfielder is not going to give you any production and if the “box to box” player offers zero goals and assists then your chance of getting any production from the midfield is really diminished.
Bill, couldn’t agree more. When Guendouzi got into the team, he felt like a breath of fresh air. I agree with Josh. He does play the ball forward, which was a novelty at the time! I seriously thought that here was a “find”. Since those heady days, have I seen progress? I know it’s still early days, but to be perfectly honest, no. What I’m starting to see are the shortcomings to his game. Midfielders are expected to chip in with goals and chances. At the same time, there are defensive weaknesses. He’s starting to look like a “one trick show pony”. Of course, these issues can often be ironed out, but it does presuppose that he is prepared to buckle down and work at his game. From what I’m hearing, that might not be the case. If Arteta thinks the same, then he realises he may have a problem.
The thing is, Arsenal are strapped financially. I have a season ticket in club level, so I’ve seen week in and week out, how much the club make from “hospitality”. It is literally massive, reputably the highest match day takings in the Premier league. That has completely dried up, obviously. We are seriously in a great steaming pile of poo, financially.
In order to make progress and be competitive, Arsenal are going to have to make some tough decisions. If Arteta thinks that Guendouzi isn’t going to be quite the ticket and if another club is prepared to offer silly money, then Arsenal may be well advised to take it. That actually goes for quite a large chunk of the squad, particularly those who were put on ridiculous contracts, which are in no way sustainable, especially in the current climate. “Yes Mesut, I’m looking at you.”
I’d have zero issue with Guendouzi going,especially if we got a decent return. His stats look good, but that’s about it. He’s a hot-head, and seems to add little of value. Few goals or assists. Basically a less-disciplined Coquelin, and not as good a defender. Neither he or Torriera is good in the air. Xhaka isn’t great, but he’s at least a little better.
And I think Laca has to go as well. He’s just not producing enough. If he can’t we either need to give the match time to someone younger, or buy someone else.
truth is.. players are in charge they go when they want to go or the agents.
what club will increase the wages of underperforming players post covid?
it’s going to be a long learning curve and no quick fix. .. re Jimmy Hill.