Arsenal have a match on Wednesday! Wow. I didn’t think this would actually happen but here we are.
Arteta gave a press conference today and it was full of the usual stuff: we are trying to keep Auba and Saka; we are working on developing our style of play; etc. But also full of the not at all usual stuff: it was held on Zoom; Arteta spoke about how difficult it’s been to teach without contact; it’s difficult to tell how players will respond playing without crowds; player fitness is going to be an issue; playing with 5 subs is going to be good for young players (maybe) because they might be able to get more playing time; etc.
My expectations for Arsenal’s restart are very low. I’m not expecting a top four finish. I’m not expecting a major turn around in Arsenal’s playing style. I don’t expect miracles from Arteta in terms of turning around players like Guendouzi and Ozil so that they play a modicum of defense. I’m not expecting pretty much anything from Arsenal.
The statistical picture of the club has been pretty bleak for an entire season and even after Emery was fired, there wasn’t a turnaround. We are still the same side as we were under Emery. The question is, what can Arteta do about it?
I know folks are expecting transfers to come along and fix the problems but I can’t see Arsenal spending any money this summer without major sales. In fact, I think we may need major sales just to break even – and we absolutely need to get rid of some of the giant salaries we have on the books (Auba, Laca, Mkhi) and almost certainly won’t be keeping David Luiz next term. This is a team which begged the players for a 15% gift – not to feed the poor, but just to keep the club afloat. And Stan Kroenke had to personally guarantee loans to the club to make sure that we have operating capital. I know that folks want to believe that the club has tons of cash stashed away – and maybe we do – but we don’t act like it. We act like a club in serious financial trouble.
But hey, if you get joy from transfer stories and/or just disagree that the club don’t have money, that’s super cool and I don’t mean to disagree with you in any way. Maybe we will sign Upamecano and Partey. I have no idea and no energy left to argue it. I’m not sure why either of those players would take a step down in their careers and join Arsenal but hey, when Arsenal knocks it’s a different knock, right?
Anyway, before we sign one of these blockbuster deals there are some real issues that the playing team and coaching staff need to sort out. I thought instead of going into too much detail I would just list them. These are basically the things I’d like to see Arsenal improve.
- Creating chances: Arsenal are 10th in xA, xG, npxG+A, and 14th in shots per game
- Arsenal are 13th in Shot Creation Actions per90
- We need to get more than just Pepe creating chances for the team but also I think Pepe needs to take all corners and set plays. He’s our best dead ball striker, hands down.
- Progressive passing: Arsenal are 8th in progressive distance, 8th in passes into the final 1/3, and 6th in passes into the penalty area
- Pressures: Arsenal are 15th in pressures, 17th in successful pressures, 15th in middle third pressures, and a god awful 16th in pressures in the attacking third
- Tackles: we are also awful in tackles in the attacking third, and last in tackles in middle third
So, basically, we need to see Arsenal play more coordinated pressure, better defending in midfield, and get the ball forward more often. That’s all. LOL.
That said, I’m not expecting anything. I expect us to play pretty much the same as we have all season. That way if we are worse, it won’t be a surprise, and if we are better, I can celebrate.
Yeah, unfortunately, my expectations are pretty low as well. I’d honestly be happy if we play reasonably well and get at least a few of these contract situations resolved.
As far as finances…it’s hard to see things as other than troubling. Which they shouldn’t be. Arsenal is a historically massively successful club, based in one of the largest and most cosmopolitan cities in the world. We shouldn’t be in dire straits. But a lot of bad contract and transfer decisions, plus a comparatively heavy dependence on stadium income has put us in a bad place with COVID. Spurs are probably even worse on that front, but have lower wages.
Spurs also have some extremely valuable assets that they can sell – Harry Kane would probably still fetch over 80m to Man U/City/Cheklsea.
All I can say about those peddling and believing the transfer rumours is : expectations =) disappointments =) agendas.
In fact that applies for every fan in this version of Arsenal, doesn’t it?
No way we’re cracking top four. In fact, I’d be surprised if we qualified for the Europa League…and let’s hope we don’t! Haha. I mean, honestly, I couldn’t give a cr*p about that competition, and at this point I’d just like a full season without the distraction. Let Arteta focus on the league and rebuilding the team’s structure. When you play every two or three days, flying all over Europe, there’s little time to do anything else in training but prepare for your next opponent.
I’m excited to see Arsenal play again, though. Well, I guess I say that now, but we’ll see how I feel after City’s unanswered third or fourth on Wednesday. Initiate Arsenal Outrage Sequence! Haha. Bring on the bad, the good, and the resignation. And so it begins.
I don’t have the full financial picture at all but what makes sense to me is to sell high on Aubameyang instead of handing him a bumper contract when he is already in the Autumn of his peak. He is like van Persie circa 2012; one or two more top level seasons is all I expect. Maybe that’s enough to invest in if the market for him doesn’t develop, but if we can move his wages and get a large transfer fee, I think at this moment in time we cannot turn that down. Just don’t let him go to United ffs.
Ozil will probably play out his contract and leave on a free. I can’t see anyone spending to land him on that wage.
It’s going to be so weird but I’m ready for football to start again. I’ll watch the City March from the safety of my bunker that I am just casually inspecting while they press our back line…
Let’s see what the new normal is going to be like. Every thing is unpredictable this year, that is the only sure thing
If we don’t sell Aubameyang (I cannot envision any realistic scenario in which he stays at a price that makes sense) and we don’t tie Saka down long term, I will have officially given up all hope on our “executive team.”
I agree that it is highly unlikely that a raft of transfers ya coming down the pipe to massively upgrade the squad, which means that Arteta and his staff need to mage some magic happen with what they’ve got while our management team needs to get the squad in shape in terms of money, age and player profiles. I am much more confident in Arteta’s team’s ability to carry out their jobs than I am the executive team – hopefully Raul and co. surprise me.
Player transactions are really tough, especially for big time money. There are so many competing interests. Raul has been doing this longer than most and not just at Arsenal. I think we are in far better hands with him than we were with Wenger, Gazidis and “moby” D*ick Law running things, which I think is where a lot of the pent up frustration with the executive branch is from. I can’t see him making the cardinal sins of the past regime, like letting prime players run down their contracts. I believe Auba will either be sold for a solid return or he will sign a manageable contract with us.
We shall see. While Raul has a lot of experience, his track record is spotty at best (not just at Arsenal) and I’m not sure his skill set and experience lines up with Arsenal’s needs. And so far at Arsenal, Auba is into the final 12 months of his contract, Saka remains unsigned to a longer term deal and a massive amount of money was spent on one year of David Luiz. Hopefully Pepe justifies the massive outlay we paid for his services (I’m hopeful, but also a bit worried) and Saliba is the cornerstone of our defense for the next decade (I’ll take 5 years). It seems to me that Raul needs to re calibrate his focus onto younger, cheaper assets with greater long term value.
All of that said, I hope Raul proves himself and my concerns are proven unwarranted/overblown.
I would like to believe this, but based on the figures I’ve seen for what Raul paid for David Luiz, I’m not so confident. As I recall, Raul was adamant that all players would either be sold or renewed once there were 2 years left. Now Auba and a few others are in that exact situation. Not saying Wenger et al were amazing with contracts, but Raul has been no better than so-so.
I’d love to hear Arteta’s thoughts on Tim’s statistics. That’s where rebuilding needs to start.
It’s match day. What will we be like? Who knows? Hopefully Mikel.
To be frank, I was getting used to life without the angst of football. Now both football and angst have returned, I just hope that we perform well and get out of there with a respectable result and something to build upon for the remainder of this ‘season’.
Great post Tim
I know we have debated this a lot over the last year and I agree with you regarding your assessment of the squad. Outside of Auba we don’t have top of the table attacking talent and our talent on the defensive side of the pitch is also suspect. No manager can work miracles and there is not much he can do when he does not have the players he needs to compete with the other top of the table teams. Football fortunes tend to be cyclical unless you consistently outspend your rivals and we are in the midst of a several year downturn. Hopefully things will turn around in the next few years.
hi all hope you’re all safe.
how come we seem to get double punished when we stop a goal scoring chance, a penalty and a sending off?
thought that rule changed a couple of years ago.
yeah he never attempted to play the ball correct decision.
Yikes. That was awful. In so many ways.
No defense. No attack. Injuries.
At least hopefully this decides the Luiz contract renewal. It probably also decides for Auba. I can’t see him wanting to stay at what appears to be a very mid-table side. Thanks to Pep for not rubbing it in. If Aguero and DeBruyne had played the whole match together, that could have been a lot worse.
Looked like a band of misfits either on trial to stay with the club (Mari, Ceballos), working their way back from long term injury (both fullbacks), youngsters hoping to belong at this level (Willock, Saka, Guendouzi, Nketiah) and veterans considered surplus to requirement (Luiz, Mustafi) or likely to leave the club in the summer for other reasons (Auba, Xhaka). It’s no wonder Bernd Leno was man of the match; he was one of the experienced players who was both match fit and wants to be at the club. This was almost like a tryout where Mikel was trying to see who really wants to be here.
That’s said I thought the team did ok for the first 30 minutes and then it all fell apart as we lost our legs/belief and Coty found theirs. The opening goal was unfortunate but they were cutting us apart at will for ten minutes before that. I did t watch the second half but seems like it was a bloodbath.
No Mesut Ozil in the squad. I doubt that he is in the clubs plans for next year and he may not even be in the plans for the rest of this year. I wonder if we will ever see him again in an Arsenal uniform.
Arteta’s plan in this game was to bypass midfield in possession. Not the game for Mesut. I bet we will see him vs Brighton.
Arteta is going to talk soon about ozil and luiz.
as the sex pistols sang “no future”
Arteta is going to talk about ozil and luiz shortly. should be interesting.
now luiz has came out and apologised and talked publicly about his contract..
what a mess!
That was hard to watch.
I mean the match, not the Luiz interview. I didn’t see that.
Dr Gooner @ 3:26
Your grasping at straws. Ozil is our highest paid and supposed to be our top player. You don’t leave a player like that completely off your squad for tactical reasons especially when the size of the squad and the number of subs we could use was increased.
I think we should accept Arteta’s word for the time being. Ozil isn’t going anywhere; he’s been featured in all the training videos; Arteta was just saving him, that’s all.
Tim
The players have been resting for several months and we only have 8 games left to try and climb back into a Europa league spot. Seems like a really bad managerial decision to leave a player you believe will be important out of the first game.
Bypassing the midfield sounds like Emery tactics and we used to complain about it all the time. The reason a manager bypasses the midfield is because he knows his team does not have the talent to compete in the midfield. Emery and Arteta don’t have a lot of other options with this group of players.
you might be right, bill. it may prove a bad decision to have left out mesut last night. however, that is the manager’s prerogative; he knows things about his team that fans and pundits do not. likewise, a decision on a single match day doesn’t necessarily imply an empirical truth to a player’s value.
arteta is in the unique position to know both the arsenal team and the strength of man city to come up with a sound strategic approach. in fairness, before the injuries, arsenal began the game playing well. as for arteta’s decision to not challenge man city where they’re strongest (in midfield), who thinks that’s a bad idea regardless of the talent they have available? some teams have had success against man city so a more appropriate question would be how did they approach man city and see why they were able to have success.
Bypassing the midfield sounds suspiciously like a Sam Allardyce lump it long kind of thing. Unfortunately we sold Giroud, our best player for that option, to Chelsea. Beyond that all you can do is hope that our fast players can get in behind, which once an opponent catches on, is unlikely to happen with any frequency.
allardyce had a lot of success with his approach to playing against arsenal…and it was more than simply lumping it long. with that, sometimes you have to do what the game asks and allow the situation to dictate your actions. anyone lacking the prudence to respect the situation is doomed to have any hope for success be undermined by it.
Maybe he regrets it in hindsight. Our best move in the first half was the one time we DID play through midfield and it led to a good breakaway opportunity. The long ball tactic didn’t work. Walker is one of the few fullbacks who can match Auba for pace and neither Saka or Eddie have the physical tools to out compete defenders in 50/50 situations. I don’t think this is how Arteta wants to play but in this matchup he saw it as our best chance to try and punish City’s high line with his quickest attackers.
The midfield clearly missed both creativity and tackling ability. I believe Arteta wanted lots of energy and running and that’s why he chose Willock and Guendouzi, but it was weird, the team kind of collectively dropped their heads after 30 minutes of good energy and City started making change after chance. Guendouzi as usual did lots of running but was not efficient with his positioning and was easily bypassed. When we pressed as an organized unit, it worked. We just didn’t do it often enough for whatever reason. Losing Xhaka upset the balance of things and I think that was a big moment in the game.
what can i say? is it really good to be back? ha!
when arsenal signed david luiz in the summer, i cringed. many were happy that arsenal had made a “great signing”. i never believed he was even a good signing…not as a central defender.
my first thought is when at chelsea, he was always absolutely destroyed by olivier giroud, receiving multiple sendings off against arsenal. my second is his performance against germany in the semi-final world cup game in 2014. to spearhead a defense that conceded 7 goals in a world cup your country is hosting is telling.
luiz also shares the record with the most penalties conceded in a single season in premier league history with 4. it is despicable that he’s got three red cards this campaign…against liverpool, chelsea, and man city. he chooses the big games to screw his team over… and it took him less than half an hour to do it yesterday.
Josh. I suspect Arteta left Ozil off the squad because he believes Ozil is no longer a player who would have improved our chances of competing on the attacking end of the pitch and scoring scoring goals and he is a defensive liability. Emery made the same decision in many games.
Bill you suspect that means you are not privy to any details then leave it as the manager says.dont make a mountain yet.its the managers prerogative and you are not the manager yet.
It is an incontestable fact that Özil is no longer a player who would have improved our chances of winning that game last night. It has been sad to see him toiling unproductively on the pitch these past few years.
Whatever the truth of the matter, it does appear that Özil’s creativity was vaporised by a combination of German xenophobia and contractual riches that even Croesus would have envied. It is ironic that one of the three positions where this team desperately requires the addition of quality is a playmaker/nummber 10 who will create the opportunities for our strikers that we have singularly failed to create for a couple of seasons whilst our top earner was formerly one of the top players of that ilk.
Sic transit gloria mundi.
A manager makes “tactical decisions” that he thinks will give his team the best chance to win the game. If leaving Ozil off the squad was truly a tactical decision then Arteta must have believed there were 19 other players who gave us a better chance of winning the game. There is no other reasonable conclusion.
Or… the team are playing every three days and the manager thinks resting ozil in a game which Arsenal almost certainly won’t control in the final third means he could be fresh against Brighton, a team where the club could potentially have more control in the area which Ozil is most effective and pick up three points. You know, “tactics.”