Premier League Football Starts Soon

Barring an unforeseen problem like a sudden outbreak or a player/coach getting severely ill, it looks like the Premier League will fulfill their TV contracts and finish the 2019/20 season.

I have been watching the Bundesliga (I’m sure many of you have) and they have tried a number of things in Germany. Fox Soccer tried pumping in crowd noise for the TV audiences and while this seems dystopian and unnerving at first there are some good reasons why: the players and coaches are basically cursing up a storm on the sidelines and it’s hard to tell which is more disquieting, watching the players with fake crowd noise or watching the players thump the ball around in an empty stadium. Personally I would love a zero commentator, zero fake noise feed but that’s not an option.

This problem is going to be with us for a while. The 2020/21 season will be kicking off soon after the 2019/20 season ends. If the UK follows the pattern of other nations, we could see empty stadiums for quite some time. There might be some tests performed with 25% capacity, but that’s only if they can get the infection rates down.

I say that but I’m not entirely confident. The data around this virus changes all the time (which is normal). This might sound extremely cruel but we may hit a point where people get sick from the virus, but the number of deaths starts to tail off because most of the people most vulnerable have already been exposed and either recovered or succumbed. Again, I am not making light of human life. My mother is one of those most vulnerable so I’m very worried. But my point here is that we may see things return more or less to “normal” sooner than I have thought for quite some time and certainly sooner than “when we have a vaccine”. At my job we are already planning for 25% capacity reopening and I live in one of the more conservative states – Washington – where they are being very deliberate and using data to track where and when to open things.

I bet you winced a bit when I said that Washington is being conservative by locking down. That’s because like everything else the virus is a political football. Is it “liberal” to be strict about quarantine or “conservative”? LOL. Here I’m using conservative in a medical sense: seeking to control the virus rather than allow people to get the virus “liberally”. Think of the virus like salt: am I liberal with my use of salt (I use a lot) or conservative? The virus itself is neither conservative nor liberal – it can’t vote – but I’d say the virus would love to be free and applied liberally to as many mammals as it possibly can! Ok, I’m being a bad writer, playing with words, sorry. If you need to discuss the political implications of the coronavirus, please feel free in the comments. As usual, my rules are pretty simple: try to talk about the ideas and not the person presenting them (i.e. no “YOU ARE ALWAYS LIKE THIS <YOU TURD@!!>).

Sorry, digression.

We don’t know when and how fans will return to the stadiums. It’s possible (I guess) that they won’t. Maybe we will have “virtual” fans in the future. Maybe they can rent us a virtual body to control inside the stadium: we can pan its head around, zoom in on action, it could have a mic to send us sounds back to our headphones and a speaker so we could chant along (and shout abuse!). I imagine a little robot like that could even take a snapshot as a momento of the day “out”.

I know that’s all a bit fanciful (no chance a club would spend the money needed to do what I have outlined above) but clubs are going to have to do something. Arsenal (which we ostensibly talk about here on this crazy-ass blog) is heavily dependent on matchday revenue and without that fan money coming in we slip down the money list. I wonder how far down the list we slip? How much that effects our salary bill and our ability to buy players?

And yet in a simulacrum of normalcy, Arsenal are being linked with dozens of top quality players as the summer transfer season starts to hot up. To be clear, I’m not opposed to Arsenal signing talent: I’m very POSED to it! But I find it hard to fathom that a club which was leaking money every season before Corona and which has taken a major hit to the bottom line since – with the club having to refund/credit season ticket holders and missing out on matchday revenue – is going to sign Thomas Partey for £40m (or even half of that). Especially in light of the fact that the club just begged players for a 15% paycut. Just to give some context: Arsenal have the highest portion of revenue tied to matchday (24%) and the second highest overall matchday income (£96m). I’m sure the club will try to find alternative ways to make money but if they have to have reduced seating or no fans in the stadium, it’s going to be extremely difficult to pay for transfers.

That’s why I do think some swap deals and loans are a possibility. Coutinho to Arsenal on loan might work out – especially if they can get rid of Mkhitaryan’s salary. But actually buying top players seems pretty far out.

That said, we are operating here in Oklahoma territory. I typically rely on experience, research, and data to help drive my opinions but we have very little of any of those things. We do know that the club are entertaining offers for players like Rob Holding; strong rumors are circulating that they want to swap Lacazette (a large salary player); Ozil has been on the block for a long time (though he’s basically said no thanks and I’d be surprised to see him leave); and it looks like Arsenal are not going to renew the David Luiz contract.

I don’t know what we are planning this summer but I’d be surprised if Kroenke puts his own money in and without a massive cash injection, even after selling and cutting huge salaries, I can’t see the club buying almost anyone. We are a club that has to operate as if it’s £100m+ in the hole operationally. Maybe you can see a way to spend money, but I can’t.

Anyway! Football soon. Soon we will finish this season and have a few weeks to worry about a transfer season. Or not!

Qq