I didn’t think it would happen at all much less this soon but Germany is going to allow the Bundesliga and Bundesliga II to resume the 2019/2020 football season.
Part of what’s driving this is the fact that Germany has done an exceptional job of testing and contact tracing. That work has their new case infection rate at 947 per day as of 5/6. Compare that to the United Kingdom (which has a similar population size and density) which reported 6,111 new cases yesterday and whose infection rate curve looks like it’s on the verge of taking off.
Germany has pulled off a truly astonishing feat: they have managed to keep infection rates low, flatten the curve, keep death rates extremely low, not bankrupt the country by giving away trillions to billionaires, and also not have their citizens shooting fast food employees when they are asked to wear a mask. In terms of the overall cost of this pandemic to Germany, my guess is that it will be very low (compared to the cost per person in the USA). And Germany shows us that it is possible for governments to take care of their people, meanwhile, the United States continues to argue over the false dichotomy of “jobs or deaths”.
Germany restarting football – which, let’s be honest, is not an essential service at all – is proof that this virus can be managed. If your country is willing to do a little smart thinking, planning, and cares for its people. I also expect that the government will be monitoring this situation very closely and – again because they CARE ABOUT THEIR PEOPLE – will shut things down very quickly if sport even remotely causes a spike in infections.
Anyway, you’re not here to listen to me rant about how terribly the USA is doing in terms of controlling infections. You are here because you want to know which team you should support when you watch Bundesliga matches in a few weeks! So, let’s take a look at some of the stats and see if I can help you pick a team!
Pressures
It’s probably not a surprise to learn that Bayern Munich lead the Bundesliga in both pressures and tackles in the final third: like Man City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Southampton (not a surprise since they are coached by Hasenhüttl), Juve, Napoli, and all modern football teams they look to win the ball back quickly in a dangerous area and stop the opponent from breaking on them.
Paderborn 07 play the most overall pressures and also lead the league in tackles and blocks. They aren’t the lowest possession team in the league (46%) so that’s a good indicator that their coach just like them to play “up-em” as much as possible.
One interesting wrinkle is that upstarts RB Leipzig lead the league in midfield pressures. That’s almost entirely because of star MFer Konrad Laimer. The dude leads the league in pressures with 704 (37 per90 – Torreira only averages 24.4 per90), leads the league in tackles with 81, leads in dribblers tackled with 83, and also adds in some good blocks and interceptions numbers. Before you get too excited about trying to sign him at Arsenal – he just inked a new deal with RB.
Goals
Obviously Bayern Munich are going to lead the bunch here and RB Leipzig are 2nd but when it comes to expected goals Borussia Monchengladbach are actually 3rd in the league. They are in 4th place on the table right now and if you’re the kind of person who likes rooting for 4th place teams you may have found yourself a side! They also like to spread the glory around. Their top scorer only has an xG of 9.5, and they have 5 players who have scored 5 goals or more.
No team is overperforming at the rate that Borussia Dortmund are this season: they have scored 68 goals on an xG of 45. I’m not sure if it’s systemic or what the deal is there. They have scored 5 goals 5 times this season and 4 goals 3 times. That’s 37 goals on 21 xG!
Down at the bottom of the table, Werder Bremen and Dusseldorf are pretty difficult to watch if you want your team to score goals! Dusseldorf has an xG of just 25, 1 per game. They also have the worst shot on target % in the league. SAD!
The two Borussia’s lead the Bundesliga in shot on target%, both above 40%. If you’re a Gooner, watching either of these two will be a refreshing change over Arsenal’s pathetic 33% SoT numbers.
One surprise in here is Bayer Leverkusen. They are 3rd in progressive passing, 3rd in shot-creation off passing, 2nd in dribbles that lead to a shot, and third in dead-ball passes leading to a shot. They are in 5th, their xG is 5th, assists are 5th, and goals scored are 5th. If they could get a few lucky breaks and overperform xG slightly they could jump into 4th!
Keepers
It’s all about Yann Sommer (Monchengladbach) he is +6.1 over expected saves. He’s actually +14.1 over expected saves over the last two seasons. This is ridiculous – like take the chapter of Moby Dick where Melville argues that a whale is a fish and multiply that by 10.
I do want to warn you about a few keepers as well. If you’re going to watch Dortmund, Roman Burki is going to tick you off – bigly. He’s conceded 5 more goals than expected based off shots. Though that could be fun to watch: on one end of the pitch Dortmund are shooting lights out, on the other end of the pitch they are leaking goals! Very drama. So drama.
But if you want to see some keepers who are really struggling look over at Pavlenka at Werder. He’s let in 12 more goals than expected. Timo Horn at Koln isn’t really much better at -9.9. It could be fun to watch teams just shoot at these two hapless flappers, though.
Ok, I’m done now. Not going any further with this today. See ya!
Sorry, I’ve been a Dortmund man for a long time. I’m nothing if not consistent.
I guess I’ll wrap myself in my warm blanket of American exceptionalism and watch some live footie.
UK has quadrupled testing, so the increase in reported cases is down to that.
Also these additional cases are largely people who are already self isolating, hospital cases are going down by 15% a week
I’ve seen a lot of conflicting stats on this topic of testing and whether people are actually being tested.
According to healthdata.org – hospital admits are down 12% in the last week and ICU/vents are still well above capacity and declines are nominal.
Be careful where you get data from. Hospitalizations for Covid peaked at just over 20000 over Easter. As of today, that number is 11700. ICU bed use peaked at about 70% of capacity and is now under 40%.
That data doesn’t match any source I’ve found, that’s a hell of a rosy picture. Almost feels like a source with an agenda.
This makes me want to watch Sports center to see how they handle the tension between the familiar and alien aspects of the Korean Baseball league and the Bundesliga.
I’m especially interested to see if the Bundesliga, given its quality of play, can seize the opportunity and win overseas fans.
Hey folks!
…..oh sh….:)
Seriously though, as bad as the government has been here in Ireland they’ve been great during the pandemic.
Took it seriously early on and let people who lost their jobs or who’s jobs were furloughed sign on and get basically double the regular social welfare so they’re getting something more in line with actual wages.
And when people worried that some people would take advantage of the increased payment the government basically said that we had to do it fast and now was not the time to be worrying about whether a few people would do ‘too well.’
I know there’s dodgy people behind a lot of it but I can understand why genuine people in America are protesting to get back to work when the government just said ‘Here’s a grand, that’ll do ya.
It’s crazy.
(On a side note, this pandemic has really clarified to me just how little I care about the premiership and football these days. I honestly don’t miss it.
The funny thing is, despite my serious issues with the enterprise, I’m more upset to miss out on the European Championships this year. It’s messed up and corrupt but I can enjoy it on more of an entertainment spectacle level than ‘regular’ football.
I don’t have to ‘care’ so much about the outcome and can enjoy it.
Thanks for writing, Tim.
I still come here for the football content, but in the last few years I’ve realized that I prize (and respond to) your non-football content above all. Football just hasn’t had the same draw for me in the last few years. I’m weary of it. I think it’s that I’m so stupid that it’s taken me this many years to realize it’s just about money and a “might is right” paradigm, and any way to dress it up differently (as aesthetics, principles, etc.) is the very sort of thinking that means nobody cares about how owners make their money on the backs of humans suffering, so long as they can praise something Kevin de Bruyne did on the pitch. For example.
Anyway, keep on keeping on, Tim.
I’m with you dude. I can barely even write about football with a straight face. Not only is the club I support barely even a club it’s literally just a marketing machine and I just a cog in it. I just don’t know what I’m doing here anymore.
Same here.
I still enjoy Tim’s writing and perspective and stats. And I still enjoy the conversation around and about football.
That’s why I still check back here nearly every day. 🙂
I’ve never managed to get into foreign football and acquire a degree of loyalty to any team. There are some great teams of the past that I have admired and can still admire for their play and their achievements but they never made me cross the Rubicon to become a supporter. A cerebral decision to support a team never happened to me. I guess I need to feel a tribal bond with a club as a result of a sense of kindred feelings with its history and some geographical relationship. It took ten years of living in Southern England to replace my Scottish football tribal fealties and antipathies with Football league equivalents adopting full-on Goonerhood as opposed to longstanding mild interest. So I am very impressed by the loyalty, knowledge and commitment displayed by worldwide Gooners.
For me supporting a team is thalamic rather than cerebral. Watching a match where I have no interest in who wins because I don’t support either team, have no tribal dislike of either or the result has no bearing on my team’s fortunes is a much less involving and enjoyable/tension-ridden experience. I’m not a gambling man but I guess betting on matches may add some of the spice that’s missing when you don’t really care who wins.
As to the Bundesliga, I couldn’t possibly support Bayern – too much like Rangers/Celtic or Manure/Chavski/Shitteh in their domination based on far greater financial muscle. That’s all I know. Dortmund have clearly been their major challenger in recent years and RB Leipzig are the latest rich kids on the block but I’ll need to watch a few games and see if any chemistry is there.