Failure to replace players, selling quality, and a drastic change in playing style are the main reasons why Arsenal struggled this season.
I wonder if we will ever see football again? Live football I mean. If we do, and I kind of hope that we will one day, I hope that Arsenal emerge from this crisis hungry to spend some of that famous “dry powder” that they’ve been sitting on for years.
We’ve often criticized Arsenal for holding on to that money, the largest cash-on-hand position in the League, rather than spending it on acquiring players. But in an ironic twist, Arsenal may emerge from the COVID shutdown in the very best bargaining position: player transfers will almost certainly be cheaper than they were before and so too will wages, I expect, as many clubs will be forced to asset strip just to stay afloat.
Imagine Bournemouth, who count on television revenue for 80% of their income. The longer this shutdown goes on, and the more likely it is that we can’t finish the season, the more precarious their position. Not that I want Arsenal to be rapacious in the market and rip off these clubs but just facing the sober reality that many clubs will be having fire sales as they struggle to find buyers in the post-covid market.
That’s good news for a club like Arsenal who have failed to replace value over the last two years as they have lost key players on free transfers, selling, and as their squad has aged and become less able. Arsenal need to figure out how to get the ball forward and that means a complete overhaul of the midfield and forward options.
In Wenger’s annus horribilis Arsenal still miraculously managed to dominate possession in the opposition final third. In 2017-18 Wenger’s men averaged 636 passes per game and were 2nd in the League with 46 passes in the opp. final third and 3rd in the League in passes into the penalty area with 12 per game.
One key bit of information that is missing from that above paragraph is that even sub-prime Alexis, moping and farting around, losing the ball constantly, whilst blowing chef’s kisses to Man U was still a beast in the opposition box. He averaged 4.67 PPA (passes in the penalty area) per90. His total of 78 led the club FOR THE WHOLE SEASON, and those 78 PPA represented nearly 18% of the total number of PPA for 2017/18.
Trading Alexis for Mkhitaryan was one of the worst pieces of business the club could do when you look at final third/PPA numbers. 2.73 final 1/3 passes per 90 and 1.5 PPA. Astonishing drop in quality.
The next season things took a turn for the worse. Overall passing was down, passing in the final third, passing in the penalty area, and of course shots per game were down. That looked unsustainable from this blogger’s perspective – despite the long unbeaten run – and this season Arsenal nosedived, going from a high-midtable attacking team to an average team.
What followed is probably a bit of uncomfortable viewing for the Ozil-Xhakaphiles. In each of the last three seasons these two players have been more and more marginalized in terms of progressing the ball. Xhaka led Arsenal in final 1/3 passing 2017-18 with 10 per game. That number has slipped each season since and he’s now 2nd behind Ceballos with just 7.12 per.
Meanwhile, as Ozil has aged and the team switched to Emeryball plus the club lost several players who helped in terms of attack MO has become less effective in final third an PPA passing. His numbers have taken a big hit each of the last three seasons and while he still oozes quality he no longer puts up the stats like he used to. I was a huge fan of Arteta as a player at Arsenal but by the end everyone was able to see that his legs had gone and he no longer had the ability to play like he had before. As much as Ozil is one of the most talented players I’ve seen at the club he’s also very clearly past his sell-by date. Time waits for no man.
Ceballos has captured the imagination at Arsenal, a bit, and the passing numbers show why. As of the 28th match this season, he leads Arsenal in final 1/3 passes per90 (7.23) and PPA per90 (1.58). But therein lies the problem.
With Xhaka no longer bombing 10 passes per game into the final third, with Alexis no longer playing nearly 5 passes into the penalty area per game, Arsenal are sorely struggling to find players who can fill these roles. Ceballos’ 1.58 PPA leads the club but is THREE PER GAME BELOW ALEXIS.
Some other key players that Arsenal haven’t replaced:
- Koscielny averaged 6.6 final 1/3 passes per90 in 2017/18
- David Luiz 3.42
- Monreal averaged 5.94 final 1/3 passes per90 in 2017/18
- Kolasinac 2.11, Saka 2.31
- Ramsey averaged 4.98 final 1/3 passes per90 in 2017/18
- Torreira 2.7
- Iwobi averaged 2.19 final 1/3 and 2.56 PPA in 2018/19
- Pepe averages 1.07 final 1/3 passes per90 and 1.13 PPA
Arsenal’s drop in quality and absurd tactical shift to defense-first football has proven to be a major problem for Arsenal.
If football returns; if Arsenal can hold on to a lot of their cash; if the football transfer market collapses like I expect it to; and if the management team can scout and recruit players to the club; it is possible that Arsenal could rebuild stronger than before. It’s going to take a lot of work and a lot of luck, I’m afraid.
Tim
Thanks again Tim for giving us something to read during these tough times
I know we have discussed this a lot over the last year and I completely agree with your basic premise that the real problem is a lack of talent in the squad. Again I am not trying to suggest that a manager does not matter but he is not the one who makes the passes or takes the shots on goal and there is only so much any manager can do. Arsene’s last season was by far his worst because the talent he had to work with had deteriorated and things would have gotten even worse if he had stayed. Arsene and Fergie left their successors with squads that were rapidly aging poorly and well past their prime
I also agree with your assessment of Mesut ozil. He was an incredibly talented player but Father Time is undefeated and Mesut’s ability to influence the game has clearly been fading for the last 2-3 years.
Lots of good points in there about failure to replace players with equal or better quality(or in Ozil’s case, paying him too much to move him on in response to his getting older).
However, I also think a factor is injuries and changing lineups. How often over the last season and a half have we had a fairly consistent lineup? Absent that, and players getting used to the movement of each other, passing stats will suffer. I think that’s been a big issue with the constantly rotating lineup of fullbacks and wings.
When I think of the Arsenal that I love(d) there is one word that comes to mind, which I’ll repeat three times. I am aware that we pursued the spirit of this word to a suicidal degree far too many times but I can’t being being a prisoner, for all it’s many failings, of the essence of Wengerball.
Attack, attack, attack.
I really hope that if football recovers and Arsenal returns, that Arteta brings far more balance to his strategy and gets the right payers to play the right tactics to fulfill it. I could fall in love with that too.
1NIL
The problem with the attack attack attack ethos is after the invincibles were broken up we were never all that good at actually scoring goals. If you want to compete for the top of the league table with an attack at all cost ethos and sacrifice defensive solidarity, then you must consistently outscore the teams you are competing against in order to compensate for the increased number of goals you expect to concede. It was always a given that we would concede more goals, however, If you look at the goals scored stats we always scored fewer goals then the ManU and Chelsea teams who were winning the league titles during those years. Our attack at all cost philosophy never made sense to me when you realized that teams who were not sacrificing defensive solidarity were still scoring more goals.
Dude, we sucked with no balance, I get it. It was suicidal, the way we played. While it was risky and many times enjoyable to watch, that style will never get you trophies unless you have Xavi and Iniesta in midfield and Messi to finish their passes.