Arteta v. Emery: Arteta needs time

by imothyt

Points per game

  • Arteta – 1.7
  • Emery – 1.3

Non-Penalty expected goals and expected goals allowed per game

  • Arteta – 1.5 xG/game
  • Emery – 1.2 xG/game
  • Arteta – 1.4 xGA/game
  • Emery – 1.2 xGA/game
  • Expected goal difference per game, 0.1 – Arteta

Big chances created and allowed per game

  • Arteta – 2.0 BC created/game
  • Emery – 1.7 BC created/game
  • Arteta – 2.1 BC allowed/game
  • Emery – 1.6 BC allowed/game

Passes allowed per defensive action (lower is better)

  • Arteta – 10.03
  • Emery – 10.44

Passes made per opposition defensive action (higher is better)

  • Arteta – 11.7
  • Emery – 10.8

Leno saves

  • Big Chances saved under Arteta – 7/14 (50% – I included the FA Cup and EL matches here)
  • Big Chances saved under Emery – 6/21 (29%)
  • Opposition Big Chance finishing under Arteta – 7/28 (25%
    – I included the FA Cup and EL matches here)
  • Opposition Big Chance finishing under Emery – 15/28 (54%)
  • Arsenal big chance finishing under Arteta – 18/32 (56%
    – I included the FA Cup and EL matches here)
  • Arsenal big chance finishing under Emery – 13/30 (43%)

Progressive passes

I also looked at the Progressive Pass maps on betweentheposts.net and frankly still can’t find anything exciting. Arsenal averaged 40 progressive passes per game and allowed 36. 2. We also only manage to get 8.5 passes per game into the opposition box, while our opponents manage 9.1.

To give you an example of how poor we have been, in the 2-2 draw (which Chelsea had an xG of 3.27 to Arsenal’s 0.57) Chelsea managed 80 passes in Arsenal’s half spaces and zone 14 and 23 passes into Arsenal’s 18 yard box. Arsenal managed just 23 and 5.

Oh and in the first leg they also dominated us 49 to 26 and 13 to 2.

The only matches where we have held superiority over the opponents and dominated them in their own area are against Newcastle (106 passes in their area and 22 in their 18) and Bournemouth (68 passes in their area and 14 in the box).

DISCLAIMER

I love Arteta and am not even remotely suggesting that Arsenal need to change managers or that Arteta is a bad manager. What I think we are seeing here is that this Arsenal team sucks, hard. There are some good components but also a lot of mediocre and underperforming/overpaid players who need to be cleared out.

I also think the stats explain why fans prefer the Arteta version of football to the Emery version. It’s not just that we are winning more games (which we are) it’s that Emeryball was excruciating and the xG for and against show us that all he was trying to do was kill off the games. Unai didn’t want to go forward and didn’t want to concede.

Arteta is playing a much more open game which shows up in the xG for and against per game. While this seems dangerous in theory, once Arteta is able to get some players in who can play faster, keep possession, and move the ball up into attack better, his version of football should be superior. It’s almost always better to attack than to just destroy.

Anyway, there you have it. We need to give Arteta time.

Qq

30 comments

  1. several (not all) of the players arsenal has brought in over the past 5 years have been step-downs to their predecessors. as a result, the team is underperforming. it’s not that the players are not good enough but that the team is poorly built.

    example: arsenal don’t have a good cdm. as a result, arsenal have have to employ a strategy which fails to get the best out of the players they have available. under emery, they played with a double-pivot and with arteta, they play with inverted wingbacks. if they had a proper cdm, they wouldn’t have to play that way. arsenal haven’t qualified for the champions league since they lost cazorla to injury.

    aaron ramsey is a player who made runs that created huge problems for opposition defenses. he was replaced by guendouzi and ceballos who don’t make those forward runs.

    olivier giroud is a big, powerful center forward with greatly under-rated movement, link-up play and an aerial threat from high crosses. lacazette is faster but his power, movement, link-up play, and aerial finishes are stepped down from giroud. for the record, giroud would struggle in this team because there’s no midfield supporting him centrally…mesut drifts and ramsey’s gone. giroud is better when he has someone centrally to play with (griezmann for france, hazard/mount at chelsea, belhanda at montpellier, and even cazorla in his first arsenal season).

    on the contrary, aubameyang’s goals mean arsenal didn’t miss alexis as much as they could have. likewise, he was better for team spirit.

  2. This is an outstanding expose of the effect of a manager and/or lack thereof.

    Of course neither the perception that good managers can change everything nor the perception that managers don’t change anything at all is true. Managers can change the focus of a team and the balance might shift more towards attacking and being more open or defending and conceding fewer chances. That can look like a stroke of genius when it works out well short term, but based on this data and my anecdotal observations, the results are going to be a wash long term regardless of emphasis if squad quality and big chance luck are held constant (which is rarely the case but more likely over a larger sample).

    Most importantly, managers can change the attitude of a team and its relationship with its fanbase, and there is no statistic for that. To my eye, that’s been Arteta’s chief contribution. I’m on record stating that Emery’s chief failing was his inability to connect with his players or the Arsenal fanbase and I hold to that. Arteta has both of those things in spades, helped by a positive emotional connection with the fans from his time as a player here, and doesn’t seem to be in over his head tactically either. That makes him a clearly superior manager for this football club. Note well that this could be the exact opposite at another club, Sevilla for example, where Emery feels comfortable and would have a lot of goodwill from the fans.

    1. + 1

      The mindset of how we approach games and the mindset of the team thats playing us is another intangible which can’t be quantified.

      We’re no longer there to be taken to the cleaners like rabbits in the headlights and that counts alot

  3. Eye-opening. Let’s hope, that in the post Ferguson/Wenger era of football, he’ll have the necessary time to get us back to competing like a big club again.

    Ramsey had another injury filled year in the last campaign but he’s been brilliant with Dybala at Juve this season. What would I give to have him play under Arteta. What would a guy like Gnabry do here?
    Coulda woulda shoulda.

  4. Tim,

    If you only look at games played in EPL, the numbers are different.

    10 games played/ 16 goals scored/ 1.6 goals per game.
    10 games played/ 9 goals conceded/ .9 goals per game.

    Let’s see if he can keep the team on this pace without Europa.

    1. Yes, but the underlying numbers are the problem. We are giving away a ton of good chances and unless Leno saves at a high rate – AND THEY MISS AT A HIGH RATE – we will eventually start conceding a lot more.

      1. Is it all down to luck that Leno’s saves and opposition’s not finishing of big chances are higher under Arteta? Or could it be that under the category of big chances there is still a scale and Artetas team is conceding poorer quality big chances?

        1. There is still a scale of better and worse big chances. That’s where the xG comes in. Please note that Arsenal are conceding MORE xG than they did under Emery. Again, this is because – I think – Arteta’s philosophy is fundamentally attacking football. This means more open games. Thus we are creating more xG and conceding more (for now).

          Perhaps I was being a bit too nuanced?

      2. Agreed, but what xG does not tell you is who is taking that chance. What would be better is who is taking that chance (finishing rate) and convert that into part of a more accurate equation.

        1. This comes up all the time. If what you’re suggesting was important we would see a LOT of players consistently overperforming xG and a lot of players underperforming xG. But what we see is that over time, most players don’t over/under perform a lot. Take Auba. This season he’s +5 overperfomring xG. But over the last 7 years, all shots, his +/- is actually just 1 goal. That’s incredibly accurate when you think about it.

          Salah has overperformed by +15 in 6 years
          Firmino -4
          Rashford is basically dead even
          Aguero has overperformed by +5
          G. Jesus is -11
          Vadry is +9
          Sterling -6
          Lukaku +6

          Messi is +36
          Ronaldo +5
          Zlatan is +5

          There is something Messi does that other players can’t: he scores from a high percentage of direct free kicks. He also scores a lot of non-big chances and his finishing of big chances is high. I think he’s a unique talent.

          Salah’s +15 is almost entirely from two seasons – the 31 goal season he was +7 and his first season at Roma he was +5. Since the 31 goal season, he’s returned to normal with a -0.51 and -0.25 this season.

          I think it’s something that the stattos should keep an eye on but I’m not convinced, outside of Messi, that we need to change xG to fit the player.

          1. Thank you for explaining xG so clearly, and it does make much more sense now.
            You are right, we need better players for Mikel, or Leno will just have to continue to save the oppositions big chances and the teams with big chances against us will have to continue to miss them- yes I know not likely.
            Will take ending the season above the spuds and and FA Cup thank you very much.
            But, with this virus, who know if the season will be officially cut short.

      3. Yep, Leno and the fact that a lot of Premier League finishers are crap is keeping us going.

  5. Was this ghost written by Bill? The two conclusions appear to be 1) Managers don’t really make a difference and 2) The players aren’t good enough and need to be replaced (now where have I heard that before?).

  6. Tim, what is the source for the Big Chances? I was trying to search myself the internet, but I didn’t find anything meaningful. Or maybe this data is available via paid subscription?

  7. I was hoping Arsenal would announce an end of season testimonial match for Santi Cazorla but all bets are off for pretty much anything until Covid-19 flares out in Europe which may not happen until May or June.

    1. I thought you had to do 10 years to qualify for a club testimonial it was to reward loyalty and help through later working years. obviously they don’t need it like when they used to travel to games on the bus or underground.

      1. Yeah, what they used to do was take the money and buy a pub with it. Often ended up drinking the profits. Times have changed somewhat.

  8. Energy Drink 2, Roosters 0, after 10 minutes.
    In another competition, I can feel it…St. Totterhingham’s Day is coming…
    LoL.

  9. S&$rs look awful against the break. I mean, worse than…us. they are all over the place while giving Leipzig yards of space to at them.
    I’m loving it!

  10. “What I think we are seeing here is that this Arsenal team sucks, hard. ” LoL – I think you’re right – Arteta has taken a sucky team, boosted its morale, and made it more coherent… This has led to marginal, modest improvements – and a more attack-oriented approach as you show – semi-yay!

    1. I hope they sack him, he’s got £60m left on his contract. That would be spectacular.

  14. Yikes. Postponement confirmed. No match tomorrow.

    And if it’s a significant number of players and they are isolating for 14 days, it could also mean the BHA match this weekend and the FA cup match against the Blades.

  15. Footy cancelled. What am I going to do? Watch endless reruns of the double season? This really is a crisis.

  16. Arteta has also had a tougher fixture list than the season average. Arsenal also got 2 red cards during this period. I think the numbers are a little better for Arteta from an improvement standpoint.

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