One-Nil to the VARsenal

39 comments

1. Great analysis. I sat in the clock end upper directly behind the goal yesterday and almost chewed my fingers to the bone at the big chances we were giving away from the 2nd minute when Xhaka gifted Bowen a gilt-edged chance that Leno had to touch at full stretch onto the post. If West Ham’s strikers were half decent they would have killed us by half time. We won because we were lucky the Spammers were so incapable of taking the chances we gifted them and Leno made several match winning saves when they did get their shots on target. Lucky like we were against Everton but without us scoring three great goals. We won’t get off the hook giving so many chances to a team with decent strikers.

   Our seats gave a great view of Ceballos playing ‘quarter back’ and emulating the boss in his pomp. I thought it was Ceballos’ best game yet for Arsenal and his numbers are indeed impressive. In fact having long since decided that a) he wasn’t a midfielder of Real Madrid class and b) he should be sent home at the end of the season, I was won round to thinking he might be the most useful of our current midfielders to be part of a revamped midfield next season.

   Hence your piece is an excellent cold shower, and your observation:

   “there’s an inescapable fact that Arsenal’s attack was atrocious and that he was at the helm”

   is well made. However I don’t think Ceballos should entirely carry the can for the dreadful chance creation by the team yesterday. What he clearly doesn’t do is take the ball into the opposition box himself or make a defence splitting through ball to a striker in the way Cesc used to do. Adding those attributes to his game would make him a much better player and a far, far more useful member of the Arsenal midfield. However if he was accompanied by an effective defensively minded compatriot like Thomas Partey and a genuinely on-form creative midfielder he might convince you.

   Tim, having single-handedly convinced an old cynic that stats help illustrate my gut instinct about what I have just watched you now appear to be tearing down your own temple to statistical analysis! Only joking, sir.

   Ultimately I’ll defer to Mikel Arteta’s judgement on Ceballos. If he thinks he’s worth keeping for whatever we have to spend then so be it. If not, I won’t shed a tear. Mikel has proven one thing so far: he’s a lucky manager – or at least he’s lucky for the time being. I like his style and I hope he can walk the walk like he’s talked the talk to date.

   1. I love the view from the pitch! Thank you for that.

      Look, it’s good to question stats. They should be constantly questioned. That’s the only way that they improve!

      I have learned that solely relying on either stats or “the eye test” is not a good idea. They compliment each other.

      For example, the thing I said about xG dominance – we’ve only dominated 3/10 matches under Arteta – I think that passes both the stats and eye test.

      Also, dominating xG doesn’t mean that we were the “better” team. Wenger’s side routinely dominated xG, but were also undone in a lot of matches. Why? because sometimes game state matters, sometimes the opponent was lucky, etc etc. We should look at stats with a jaundiced eye.

      The coronavirus is another great example. How many unreported cases are there? Can we trust the Chinese government to report accurately? Also, why did they lock down millions of people if this was just another “flu-like” cold? That’s not denying stats, that’s asking the stats to be more accurate and offering ways to make them more accurate. That’s what we need to do with xG, and other soccer stats.

      For example, I think we need a “what if” xG. Like Antonio’s pass to Haller. The what-if xG on that was probably 0.8

      1. (Posted this on the last thread as well.)
         Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
         https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
         Amazing dashboard of information.

         1. Thanks for that. It’s a very informative site.

         2. “This ain’t no party. This ain’t no disco. This ain’t no fooling around”

      2. An interesting aspect of our view in that game was how the team frequently lined up. Rather than the oft quoted 4-2-3-1 or variant, it frequently appeared to be a tribute to Herbert Chapman and his W-M formation with Eddie at the central tip of the W and Özil and Xhaka in the ‘inside right’ and ‘inside left’ positions respectively. Ceballos was central in the M playing, of course, like a central hub rather than a ‘centre half’ with Sokratis and Saka in the ‘right half’ and ‘left half’ positions just ahead of him and Luis and Mari behind him. What goes around comes around?

      3. Two informative links that address those particular Coronavirus questions:

         https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/health/coronavirus-china-aylward.html

         https://www.zerohedge.com/health/most-frightening-disease-ive-ever-encountered-my-career-says-architect-national-pandemic

         We do need to change our behaviour. Face masks and stock-piling loo-rolls are no defence!

         1. SMH @ Zerohedge…may as well link to the Drudge Report.

2. Ha! To continue our previous exchange it’s luck baby.

   We’re on the same page regarding results flattering performances. I said as much earlier in the week.

   Ten games left including Leicester and Liverpool at home, City, Spurs and Wolves away. Four of the other matches are against teams fighting for survival.

   Regarding Ceballos and all the build up being on the wings. Ceballos played very deep and was effectively our DM (#1st for possessions won, tackles and interceptions). That’s the coach’s instruction. Likewise the lack of building play through the middle has to be the coach’s direction. Strikes me Ceballos did what was asked of him extremely well.

   Our playing style and the personnel used still feels quite experimental.

   BTW – Fernandes is a fantastic player. How we could do with him.

3. Great post Tim.

   We won and that’s what matters. IMO, our attack is incredibly blunt because our players are not all that good. There are no real tactical solutions to improve the attack when the problem is a shortage of talent.

   You can get a team with average talent to play good defense. Take Sheffield United fir example. Arteta has significantly improved our goals against and credit to him for that

4. Great post. I think the Man Utd VAR call was the one where Auba was called offside but was being played onside by Harry Maguire (by about 5 yards). The Lino put his flag up even though Maguire was standing right in front of him.

   1. That one with Maguire was truly a ‘missed call’.
      Yesterday’s was about Ozil’s shoe size. 🙄

5. Tim

   Your comments about Ceballos looking good on the stat sheet but still not having much positive influence on how our game played out is something we have talked about intermittently for as long as I have been in the blog. The stats can often be misleading. Best example is Mesut ozil who still can occasionally fill up the stat sheet. However, I think It’s clear to anyone who watches with an unbiased eye that he is no longer effective at creating high percentage scoring opportunities and he hasn’t been for a while.

   1. Here is something right up your alley: f*off

      1. No. Don’t do that.

      2. please – play the ball, not the man.

         1. Yes, please. Thanks!

            It’s easier to just ignore Bill if he’s bothering you. He’s not a bad guy, just likes to say the same thing over and over

6. A very long time reader, first time poster. Forgive me Tim, I really respect your blog and appreciate all you do here based on the excellent articles you post everyday. Unfortunately, I have been pretty pis* off about this a*hole Bill who has literally trolled on every single post. Surprising thing is he seems to sprung out from some sh*hole when Arsenal fired that bum Emery.
   I apologize for going after Bill but unfortunately, I dread reading your article, fearing this idiot will post something incoherent and spoil the entire article for me. I have had it and I apologize in advance for lashing out.

   1. TBH I’m not that much of a fan of Cebellos myself, but accept that he’s about the best we’re going to get for what we can afford and attract due to the position we’re currently in. There are generally more positive than negative opinions here, but the (Untold) bleeding hearts of Arsenal blogging are elsewhere.

7. This has been my favourite blog for years. Always well balanced and dare I say you keep it as real as can be.

   I see your point of reasoning and agree to a slight extent. I agree with Bill that ceballos lacks two midfield players. Ozil and xhaka are not upto scratch. I may admire xhaka’s leadership traits and commitment but his lack of agility and speed, not his fault, can’t survive in the premier League. He’s not a goal scorer, playmaker or DM so what is he? He doesn’t have a special attribute that if we mould the team around him will make him special or make the team’performance increase significantly. Same can be said of ozil.

   I’ve seen Arteta experiment with willock alot but he’s still not ready but worryingly doesn’t seem like he makes the right decisions in the final third. I’d give him time. Just look at traore from wolves on how players can improve.

   I think we need a specialist DM and a modern 10. The likes of debruyne, Fernandes etc. Ozil has just lost some quality of performance even though the talent is there. Fed up of those give and go passes with Pepe leading to zilch.

   Arteta has his work cut out. He asked for the job. He has my support.

8. Great article, thanks Tim.
   Dani is a tricky one to call
   I agree. After watching him
   10 or 15 times in a truncated
   season I’m still not sure .
   He is young and it is his first
   season in the PL so the potential
   is certainly there.

9. The thoughts about “stats vs eye-test” are interesting and indeed important. I personally fully agree with Tim’s observation that with Ceballos in the driving seat we were simply not producing enough quality output. Probably it has something to do with the quality of all those passes (are they smooth or too sharp, are they in space or to feet, are they eliminating opponent or just handing the responsibility to someone else. This we can’t really measure , at least not with the basic measurements (sheer number of passes).
   To me personally, Ceballos yesterday, especially in offensive phase, resembled too much Elneny. Runs around, passes around, doesn’t hide. But the product is simply missing.

   The other thing I didn’t like was Eddie’s game. he is too much a “poacher”, focusing mainly on positioning and finishing off with one shot (even when this one shot was off the foot of Pepe, while he was in offside). This didn’t work with a compact and disciplined defense wile West Ham’s, and therefore we were forced to go down the flanks.

   In the second half things changed when Xhaka was sent more upfront. Not that it created much, but the structure seemed more right in the specific context of the opposition. And the Laca substitution was a good one.

10. Ceballos seems “alright”, but nothing much more. The problem is he is very similar to rest of the Arsenal midfield i.e. he “circulates” the ball nicely, in much the same way Ozil does. Keeping possession is obviously something to be valued, but at the end of the day, to what point? The Arsenal midfield lack the ability to go past players, or make forward runs into space. We are shockingly one paced and ridiculously easy to defend against. Stand your ground, block the avenues and wait while Arsenal pass themselves to death. Sooner or later they will cough the ball up. Easy.
    The one time we look dangerous is when Saka gets down the left wing. He’s 18 years old! Willock offers something different in midfield, but he is by no means ready, if he ever will be.
    The West Ham game was a classic example of this. Stodgy.
    I can only hope that Arteta finds the players in the summer that add a bit of balance to the side or something extra in midfield. Far too one dimensional.

11. Good piece. The underlying numbers tell you that this is simply not a very good team. As for Ceballos, I get your reservations about him, but he is still the best footballer we have in midfield at the moment and by some distance, IMO. More than anything, though, that tells you about the limitations of this very inadequate squad.

12. It’s an island of misfit toys, innit? Reminds me of the Island of Misfit Mascots on South Park.

    Tim Stillman’s analysis of Pepe over on the Arseblog was illuminating. At Lille he was given freedom to receive and turn with the ball in central areas and half spaces but at Arsenal he has Ozil and Auba ahead of him in the pecking order so he is relegated to a sort of inverted winger role which is not how he made his name before this season. It’s an example of the lack of forethought in our recruiting strategy that has left us with a bunch of ill fitting pieces. Aubameyang should be playing Eddie’s poacher role (a la Aguero), Pepe should be playing Ozil’s free role between the lines (a la KdB) and Ozil should be knitting it all together from an inside left position (a la David Silva).

    But Arsenal have deficiencies elsewhere, particularly on the wings, that means Pepe gets shunted wide right as our de facto best option there and Auba plays wide left for the same reason. Both are playing out of position because the team’s deficiencies elsewhere demand it. This problem is exacerbated by the fullback situation.

    Arsenal do have options for wide players, particularly with Martinelli and Saka wide left and Nelson on the right, but Saka is needed at LB and Martinelli is not yet ready carry the load as an every day LW for us. Nelson’s inconsistency and injuries, plus the need to involve record signing Pepe have limited his opportunities but he could be part of the eventual solution playing on the wing to support Pepe playing further inside instead of being an alternate for him in the wide right role. Likewise, I picture Saka and Tierney combining with Ozil on the left to supply bullets for Auba and Pepe making runs into the box. These are no doubt the permutations Arteta has in mind as well but at the moment much of that is unavailable.

    Both Emery and Arteta rely on using width to break down compact defensive shapes and it’s difficult to exploit wide areas when your wide players are strikers and your wing backs are center backs and midfielders. That is why I think we see the team struggle mightily in these types of games against Mouyes type teams. Ironically the Man City game might suit us better as Pep’s men will drive forward at us. Which allows Auba and Pepe the space they thrive on. Torreira will be a huge miss for that game.

    1. I think ultimately Arteta wants to play a 1-4-1-4 type system, eschewing the double pivot and pushing even more numbers forward like his mentor Pep. He doesn’t have anyone capable of playing a single pivot and I suspect such a player might be the chief focus of investment this summer. Having two mobile fullbacks capable of threatening offensive play on both flanks will be crucial as well. I don’t know if he is happy with the Mari-Luiz combo but that figures to be the first option pairing. An experienced wing player would fit a major need as well, though at the cost of opportunities for youngsters.

       Auba
       Saka Ozil Pepe Reiss
       ?
       Tierney Mari Luiz Bellerin
       Leno

       Now that’s a team that could be exciting. “?” Needs to be a special player capable of immaculate passing and crunching tackles…

       1. I am really hoping that we don’t count on Luiz for the first-choice RCD. Hopefully that bloke Saliba is better than a 33 years old Chelsea man.

       2. 1. Luiz shouldn’t be playing (much) next year. It’s got to be Saliba or we wasted our money.
          2. Pepe is not an interior player. He can only deal with 270 degrees.
          3. I’m 99% convinced Auba is off this summer, mainly because I think at best we’re back in Europa league next year, he deserves more.
          4. Pep likes the left and right backs to tuck inside, I thought early on that Arteta was liking that as well with AMN. Your single pivot is never really alone in the middle. Xabi Alonso at Bayern used to drop behind the CB’s even.

    2. Couldn’t agree more, my good doctor.
       Ridiculously bad recruitment for a good many years. No discernible method to the madness. Let’s spend a fortune on players and then shuffle everybody about and hope for the best. Wenger started this. He had this idea that if he had good enough players at his disposal, then he could play them anywhere. Demonstrably untrue. Pure vanity on his part.
       The team is chronically unbalanced. Arsenal are far less than the sum of their individual parts. The polar opposite of Leicester, Wolves and evening Leeds United.

    3. I agree about the misfit nature of the squad and you’ve said it better than I could (you and others tend to, which is why I mainly lurk!).

       But just wanted to say that its this misfit nature of the squad that makes me wince when some people say “so-and-so is cr4p”.

       I think all of our squad are decent to excellent players – its just that they shouldn’t be playing in the same team, nor for the same manager(s).
       Nor possibly in England, but that doesn’t mean they’re rubbish (not something you said – just using your comment about misfits to explain my dislike of some peoples’ use of how rubbish our players are).

       1. Aye aye

13. On Saturday we reverted to building up through the flanks again. It’s cowardly football. It allows the other team to trap your progress on the side using the touchline as an extra defender and then you have to step on the ball, reverse and circulate to the other side via the CB’s and DM’s. When they’re ponderous on the ball at times, like Ceballos and Guendouzi you can’t circulate it fast enough and then don’t stretch the defense and create openings between the lines for your attacking players to receive the ball.

    We miss Torreira more than we think. He shows for the ball and moves it quickly through the middle. I know it’s not going to happen, because we have zero funds for new players, but we really need brave midfielders who want the ball in traffic and aren’t afraid (or incapable) of making incisive passes under pressure.

14. I’m actually quite fond of Bills comments. I understand it must drive people mad, whatever the article is about,he drags the argument back to the usual few points,re-written slightly each time.
    I think he may be right that we,as Arsenal fans,tend to overestimate how good our own player’s are.
    The most ridiculous in my opinion is that Coaching doesn’t make much difference.We see it all the time,and at all levels, good coaches improve individual player’s and teams.
    Oh , great article, thanks.

15. I’m also not sold on Ceballos. Point by Matt is very sound and is always the missing piece of the puzzle – what did the coach ask the player to do? Evaluating with stats and eyeball test can give us a good picture, but if the performance looks good or bad it may be because the coach asked the player to do something that either fit or didn’t fit with the skill set or capabilities the player has. Looks like Ceballos is being asked to circulate the ball, make tackles to stop counters, but not make runs or attacking his priority. Fair enough – and he did that well. The question is whether that’s really helping the team much.
    Arteta is still playing around trying to find a lineup that suits the style he wants to play. He has lmited options. Dani is more of a “do no harm” player than a dynamic player leading the attack. And his woeful lack of pace (and strength) gets exposed when good teams counter. This is especially true with the woeful lack of pace of Xhaka, and Ozil’s woeful lack of pace and strength alongside Dani. It’s not a midfield for PL 2020, where athleticism is a given. I imagine that will be a “non-negotiable” for Arteta’s summer recruitment.

    We need a tackling, physical and fast DM and an attacking midfielder who’s a scoring threat and can make late runs. THEN you have a group of players that Dani can work with. As of now, it’s a bunch of guys who do a little bit of this or that but as whole are far short of what’s needed. And Dani is likely posting good numbers because he’s not really being asked to do much beyond the basics.

    1. Ozil’s lack of pace? He’s got wheels dude. But he also never needs to get into a foot race.

       Ceballos? Mertesacker would beat him in a 40yd dash.

16. Forgive me posting twice but I rewatched the game. Cannot believe we got 3 points. WHU should have been 2 or 3 up in the first half.

    I think everyone would agree that midfield is where major Summer surgery is required. On Saturday we played three technicians but lacked athleticism. Willock and Guen provide athleticism but I don’t feel Arteta trusts them (yet).

    Saw some stats that since Moyes took over WHU rate bottom for pressing. Arteta clearly knew their game plan was to sit super deep and feared they’d hit us with pace. I think this is why he employed Ceballos in the absence of Torreira (and the absence of Granit’s pace) to screen and shield.

    We need a pair of athletic technicians in midfield like MU’s latest recruit. I’d sell half the squad to fund two Fernandes’ who can control a game.

17. I feel like our midfield is what’s causing Arteta the most headaches. In defense he just has to wait for next season when he will have Saliba, Holding, hopefully Chambers and propably Mari at his disposal. Very good options if you ask me.

    The strikers he can chose from are some of the best options you could wish for as a manager (especially when the club doesn’t have CL).

    But midfield will get a complete revamp, I think and hope. Ceballos is not the playmaker we need, neither is Ozil and Xhaka is the most non-specialist I have ever seen. I admire his commitment, but he lacks any skill that really stands out.

    BUT!!
    Next season we will have Smith-Rowe come back and call me crazy, but this guy can be the one player to get our midfield going. Yes, he is young and all. But just watch him play. The way he controls the ball is something else. Arteta will form him into a great midfielder.
    If the Thomas Partey rumours come true, even better. We have been in need of a guy like him for a long time. Add to that a ball carrier and I can see us challenging for at least top 4 again.

18. Things very much still in flux as everyone rightly points out. Arteta doing a great job in the circumstances, and what a breath of fresh air, as far as an all-round adult human being goes he may very well be my new man-crush. Checks Arteta’s age on intenet. Crap, can I look up to someone 7 years younger than me as a role model? I’m saying I can.

    I love it when the 7am zero-hours volunteer army all agree on one thing – the midfield is not right, but I second and third those who are saying that none of the players are bad, they are all in fact very good, and I think it’s almost impossible to say who will stay and thrive and who will have to move on elsewhere – it will depend on the kind of talent that can be brought in. Everyone’s had a chance to audition as the lynchpin for the team, Xhaka and Torreira have come closest, now Ceballos is being tried out, but I’m not sure the right man is currently on the books.

19. i’ve declared for years that if arsenal don’t get a proper cdm, they won’t play good football regardless of who else they sign. ceballos does a good job showing for the ball and switching the point of attack. he’s doing okay.

    arsenal need a bigger goal threat from mesut and xhaka being employed in the half spaces. it’s tough to play through the middle successfully if you have players that hold the ball. i don’t agree with jack that it’s cowardly. the ball has to move quickly or you’re going to continually turn the ball over. barcelona typically attacks through the wide areas by creating overloads; if you have two players in wide areas, arsenal will send three, etc.

    another problem is pepe. he holds the ball too long, allowing defenses to shift. he almost never moves the ball forward in less than 5 touches. also, he never looks to receive the ball in a forward position, opting to show for a drop. that’s not good enough. he’s clearly a talented player but i’m not yet convinced that he’s a good player.

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