Just gathering some thoughts ahead of an article I’m going to write about Mesut Ozil over on Arseblog News.
We know that his assists numbers are way down: 5, 19, 9, 8, 2, 1.
We know that his expected assists per90 numbers are way down: 0.32, 0.52, 0.25, 0.38, 0.22, 0.12.
You could probably tell this just from the xA number but big chances created are down as well.
A funny thing happens when you mention Ozil’s numbers. No matter what number I post, I get a “yabbut”.
For example, Ozil hasn’t had an away assist in the Premier League for over two years (since Jan 2018).
“Yabbut but how many games is that?”
Me: 20.
“Yabbut how many key passes?”
Me: 26.
“Yabbut that’s under Emery, what’s his record like under Wenger?”
Me: Ozil has 5 assists in his last 45 away matches in Premier League play.
“Yabbut how many pre-assists?”
Me: I don’t have access to that data but his xGChain has dropped every year: 0.9, 0.62, 0.38
“Yabbut how many dribbles?”
Me: what? Ok, he’s completed 9 dribbles in his last 18 away matches, he completed 14 in 11 away matches in 2017/18 and 12 in 16 away matches in 2016/17.
“Yabbut how many chances are Arsenal creating?”
Me: A lot fewer! 6.8 key passes away this season, 8.6 last season, 9.4 in 2017/18, 9.5 in 2016/17, 10.3 in 2015/16, and 10.3 in 2014/15. It’s pretty close to exactly what we see with Ozil’s stats. So, it’s a chicken-egg thing, I think.
“Yabbut what’s his average position?”
Me: finally a good question, the data suggests that the average position has dropped significantly deeper these last two seasons. You could use the final third passes p90, entries into the penalty box p90, and crosses into the penalty box p90. All are down and there was a steep drop from Wenger’s final season to Emeryball. I also have heatmaps to show that he’s playing deeper these last two seasons.
“AH HA! I knew it! Stats lie. You were anti-Ozil all along!”
I’m not even remotely anti-Ozil. The problem is that the midfield is broken. Under Wenger, we played with Xhaka as the lone DM with two MFers in front of him. That worked to get the ball forward but constantly exposed Arsenal’s back line because Xhaka cannot be the lone DM.
Emery tried to solve this with two DMs but then that created a situation where we didn’t have a player up top who could pair with Ozil/Mkhitaryan. So, his solution was overlapping fullbacks and putting Torreira/Ramsey in the forward role. That worked for a while until teams worked out that Arsenal were exposed at the back because the fullbacks were so high up the pitch.
Emery countered that by having the whole team progressively (regressively?) dropping deeper and deeper until we basically became a bad counter attacking team who also couldn’t really defend.
Now under Arteta we still play with 2 DMs and we still struggle to get the ball forward. But, his first step is complete. He needed to get everyone on the team to defend as a unit. We have been doing that (except in the match against Burnley) for the most part. The next step has to be breaking out of the 2 DM problem.
That will free up Ozil to be more creative. That will stop forcing Laca to drop so deep to collect. That will allow the forwards to run in behind more often.
However, the big problem: how?
So, I see the Ozil stats not as a sign that Ozil sucks but rather as a symptom of the problems at Arsenal over the last three years. That fundamental problem is still that the midfield doesn’t work right. Arteta either needs to get in a new midfielder (like himself! He could pass and tackle.) or he needs to transform one of the current crop into something that they currently are not: an actual DM who can play in the deep position alone.
Until we no longer have to sacrifice two MFers to cover the defense, we will always be playing a man short in attack.
Qq
wow! i just posted the exact same thing on the previous thread.
…from previous thread
“in attack, arsenal had their chances. however, it’s not lacazette and ozil who are the biggest culprits minimizing the attack. it’s more on arteta. if arsenal are playing
“with inverted wings, there’s no reason to play a double-pivot as well. it’s redundant but i think the redundancy is deliberate with arteta’s “solidify defense first” approach. arsenal needs one more player, a proper #8, to more regularly join the attack. i think that would work wonders where ozil wouldn’t have to drop so deep, meaning that lacazette wouldn’t have to drop so deep either. right now, ozil is playing as a 10/8 with laca playing as a 9/10. give them a break.”
i didn’t post it but i was thinking “a proper cdm would fix that” but i’ve been saying that for years…besides, there’s nothing arsenal can do about it until summer.
Hopefully a team solution can overcome the personnel problem. Maybe if arteta can somehow get the team to be playing nearer to the opponents box, it wouldn’t matter whether you’re playing with 2 pseudo DMs or 1?
As far as I’m concerned Ozil needs to be shipped out of Arsenal. He’s got lazy and yet still receives a whopping £350k weekly wage. We need to get shot of him, even if we have to terminate his contract. I don’t know what other Gooners think!!
sorry judith but if arsenal shipped out mesut right now, they’d have to swallow about £27 million plus the price/wages of bringing someone in who can replace him. as for him being lazy, i don’t think anyone has accused him of that lately.
the reason arsenal don’t play smith-rowe, willock, or someone else ahead of ozil is simply; they’re not as good as ozil. same goes for lacazette. he’s the best center forward arsenal has.
Judith the story is that an offer was made to buy/loan him in this last window, but Arsenal blocked it because we didn’t have a replacement. Don’t know what Cebellos is supposed to be, but surely that (if true) was our chance to unload him.
Where is your evidence please that Ozil earns £350k/week?
The fact that someone in the media says it and any number of bloggers, repeat it, does not mean that any of them know the truth.
Surely, in the absence of any proof for the suggestion, anyone who wishes to suggest it, should make it clear that it is their opinion, but not a statement of a given fact.
I understand the urge to grasp for straws and the desire to believe that Ozil’s production dropping off a cliff are tactical and if we just do something a little different or add one new player or change formation then he will return to his best. However, you guys watch the same games I do and I have no idea how anyone can really doubt that he has hit the downside of his career arc. The production decline has been steadily increasing with 4 different managers for Arsenal and the same thing happened with Germany.
The downside of a career arc comes at different ages for different players. Some players can delay the onset with hard work and mental focus but Father Time eventually has caught up with every player in every sport in world history. Mesut is 31 an age when many players have started to fade. Its certainly no surprise that the downslide would start a bit earlier for Mesut since he has been playing full time first team football in top level clubs since he was a teenager.
Bill
Not necessarily disagreeing with you but your case would be stronger if you actually gave concrete examples , say, like plays where Ozil didn’t make the correct run, or failed to feed the ball to a player making the correct run.
It’s difficult to assess the totality of someone’s performance from the tv screen as opposed to from the stands where you can follow the player’s movement even when the cameras don’t, but I have seen more examples recently where Ozil made correct runs and teammates chose the wrong option.
So I don’t think it’s so cut and dry.
Ozil can very well become our Pirlo….
I’d also add Tim that Ozil is much more effective depending upon who is playing up front. His most productive relationship at Arsenal was with Alexis who provided movement and unpredictability which in turn gave Ozil greater freedom to roam and create. He might work well with Martinelli (we haven’t seen enough games to know) but he’s not best used in delivering crosses on the nose for a poacher (Auba) to finish and to date the chemistry with Lacazette hasn’t been great. So my point is you could fix midfield but he still might not be as effective.
I am not trying to make excuses for Ozil but he has been playing for top level teams who competed for the biggest trophies in the world for most of his career. He has won all of the worlds biggest trophies and he has won world wide fame and has a gigantic fan club who think he can do no wrong. He probably has more money then all of us put together. He also knows that he will never get another big contract so he does not have that to motivate him. I suspect he also knows his skills are fading and the moments of magic that used to come automatically are not happening anymore.
I certainly understand why he would not be excited about a rebuilding process. I understand why it would be tough for him to fight harder and increase the mental focus and energy he needs to partly compensate for fading skills when he is playing for a team whose ceiling is a chance to go deep in the Europa league.
Bill, not sure if you think he’s a spent force or just lazy but for sure you are not on the Ozil bandwagon. Then again who would be after watching Arsenal the last decade😉.
I think it may be a combination of dysfunctional team/coaches, absurd contract and political fight in Germany with Erdogan and Turkish heritage (remember he choose to play for Germany ) which leaves him with motivational issues (wildly speculation ).
But for whatever reasons , it’s clearly not working and I think it’s time this summer to part ways.
Ozil is killing Nicolas Pepe chances at flourishing at Arsenal.He can’t get the ball forward in time or fast enough leaving an underconfindent Lacazette struggling with little chances.We need to ship him and allow Faster players in Willock or Ceballos to flourish.
Excellent piece providing considerable food for thought. I couldn’t agree more that the midfield must be a priority area for the summer transfer window. Notwithstanding your observation about Özil’s decline possibly being structural rather than endogenous, he is clearly not Arsenal’s future and if the rumoured offer is repeated in the summer I think he should be sold and replaced with a hungry young play-maker. ESR is the closest of our youngsters to that role but is a season or two away from being a first team regular and needs more loan time. In England the obvious candidate who may be available and affordable (we have missed the boat with Maddison) is Grealish. I don’t watch other leagues but there must be possible targets there who might be even better bets.
We also need to replace Rambo with a new ‘number 8’. This season we have missed Rambo’s goals and surging runs from midfield. AMN or Willock may possibly be that man but Ceballos who initially looked a possible solution clearly isn’t.
If Arteta cannot make Torreira into a Gilberto/MA8 MkII then an upgrade for the holding midfielder is also required.
I can’t see a long term role for Xhaka despite his excellent contributions at CB and LB in recent games. He slows down our midfield far too much as does Guendouzi who despite his mobility, holds onto the ball far too long before passing. Perhaps Guendouzi can be taught to get over that and would become a more useful player. Perhaps even the number 8 we need.
4-4-2 with a diamond, or 4-3-1-2? We’ve got enough firepower upfront to drop from 2 to 3. Could use more bodies in midfield to transition the ball.
Who else is worried that we’re so in hock to agents that we couldn’t afford £17m for Bruno Guimares, 6’3” CDM, 22, future Brazilian national captain and an obvious fix for our midfield? We need studs. We need a Fernandinho, a Ndidi, someone to create the platform for the attackers. If we’d paired him with Torreira, we’d be laughing.
I have written a lot about Mesut recently and I think Tim has hit the nail on the head with Mesut’s struggles in recent times. I would like to add to what you wrote Tim and take it even further.
I love players like Mesut Ozil and their presence in a team is usually a bigger positive than a negative. Forget all the running around nonsense and his stats. Forget everything about him, and just analyse the tactical intelligence of the player himself. Throughout his time at Arsenal, I have learned far more about the subtleties of the game watching him than any other player on the planet. His interpretation of space and his decision making are world class.
Having said all that, I don’t think Ozil was ever the right player for Arsenal. I am not speaking about the quality of players around him, which did play a part, but the team has never had the structure or style of play to suit Mesut Ozil. From the season that he signed, to his 19 assist season and through all those FA Cup wins. Mesut was never suited to what we did or how we set up. All the good he has done, has been down to Wenger’s trust, his teammates and Mesut’s incredible ability. He has only been one of the best playmakers to play in the EPL, instead of the greatest because he never fit into what Arsenal are and Arsenal never had a place for a player like Ozil.
I say all of that because he signed in the last moments of the window. His signing wasn’t planned and as far as I could see, Arsene wanted to build a team for Ramsey and Wilshere. That 13/14 team didn’t need a player to play in front of those two, but one to take over from Arteta in behind those two players. The team adjusted to the arrival of Mesut Ozil by turning into a transition team which relied on quick combinations and pace upfront, and solid organisation in two banks of four in defence. That season saw Wilshere get injured a lot and get played out wide sometimes to accommodate Ozil, the team less possession than we were used to seeing, the defence was solid and our keeper won the golden gloves. We were very effective and only lost our way in big games, as usual.
In his first season we gave Ozil a little of what kind of football he thrived playing under Mourinho, Low and a little bit at Werder. Solid defence, quick transitions, good finishers around him, Mesut playing like a second striker and a lot of movement around him when he had the ball. But that was not what Arsene wanted, and he reverted to type the following season where he even showed what he really wanted from the midfield. He put Ozil out wide and played Ramsey and Wilshere ahead of Arteta. Arsene had a project and signing Ozil forced him to adjust his project, not just to fit Ozil in, but to also deal with the injuries his two young midfielders constantly had. I feel if they didn’t get injured as often, Ozil would have been stuck out wide. Unfortunately for Mesut, he has had to make do with what he had, and he did well to adjust to playing in a dominant possession style, with interchanging positions and a lack of a solid defensive base from which to build from.
I have watched him since he was in the German youth sides, and I think everyone can imagine what Ozil is like at his best. Running, lots of movement around him and space ahead. We have seen that sporadically and his change from the type of assists he gave at his other teams to most being crosses shows the change he had to go through to fit into a team that was never right for him, or him for it. His contributions upfield were also undermined, in the same way that Aubameyang’s goals last season were, by a failure to defend well. The team has gotten worse and worse as at defending as the seasons progressed and since most people already do not know what to look for from an Ozil performance, the team’s performances and results became the metric by which he has constantly been judged. That’s why his time at Arsenal can be considered a failure for not winning us the League or keeping us in top four, while we big up other players who were present and failed to protect the contributions he made.
Mesut is only relevant now because you can trust him to make the right decisions on the pitch. If there is space to occupy in the attacking third he will occupy it, if there is a good run in the final third he can be trusted to find it with the best pass possible, if there is a problem in advancing play in the deeper areas he will drop deep. Creatively speaking, he is the best player we have had in a long time. Creativity isn’t just about making chances, but solving problems in ways others can’t envision or imagine, and he applies that with combinations out wide, dribbling deep, progressing the ball and so much more.
From my point of view in the time he has been at Arsenal, he has done a lot and continues to try and do more, but there is only so much you can do. In a team sport, where your role (creative outlet for the team in the final third) and ultimate judgement is based on how you combine in game with teammates, who could sometimes be of low quality, it is almost impossible to thrive. But in the circumstances he has played in, I see a great and unlikely success. His overall numbers are good, but his latter numbers (Which are bad) are exactly what he should have been bringing for the position, structure and overall team play he finds himself in.
If the opportunity comes, he should be sold. But I don’t want people to fool themselves into thinking he can be replaced by player in our squad or player from any team below the top 6, our squad included. The gap in quality will embarass any blind hatred most people have against him.
OK, I’ll bite.
Yabbut.
I agree with the structural issue. If we had a better mid-field behind Ozil, I can see him getting more through balls to Auba, Martinelli, Pepe (not sure I see Lacazette working well with Ozil).
But, recent games have also had me more concerned that one of his big advantages, his touch and passing control, has started to go downhill. There have been a number of occasions in the last couple games where he missed passes that the <2018 Ozil would have hit. It's a pretty small sample size, but it hasn't looked good to me.
So that brings us to the question, what is Torreira? He was supposed to be the same DM playing the role you describe.
And we have seen the flashes; both in defence where he has screened the back four and in progression of ball from deep where he has made passes that have “packed” the opposition , so what is stopping him doing it on regular basis and what does Arteta needs to help him achieve that?
It does make me wonder these Ozil loving fan’s if they actually watch Arsenal play when Ozil is in the squad!? He should not have been in the team against Burnley. Nor should Lacazette. Why are these two blocking the path for other player’s like AMN and Willock playing in midfield. We needed energy and athleticisim in midfield. More importantly we need player’s who will show for the ball and not remain static. I just don’t understand why we’re so static. These are professional player’s and should know better. I’m sorry but some of you are deluded about Xhaka and Ozil. Fools
The “AMN is a potentially great midfielder” thing is very odd. I watch every Arsenal match multiple times. I like him for his heart but oh my god he’s not a midfielder. His touch is squirrely, he often makes bad decisions with the ball, he can’t beat people in close dribbles, and his passing range is extremely limited. Maybe Arteta can unlock some masterful midfielder – and I will be the first to sign his praises for doing so – but as things stand, he is just not at all the kind of player that a big club like Arsenal should be looking at to play such a crucial position.
I have noticed your reservations about MAN as a midfielder and I dont share them. I think he can be as good, if not better than Kalvin Phillips of Leeds. I say this because…
AMN has played as a DM for the youth sides for close to 3 years after playing out wide for a number of years. A lot of people thought it was Arsene that came up with the idea of him as a DM, but it wasnt. It was only when he went out on loan for a season where he was used almost exclusively on the wing again since his early days at the club, which required a slight adjustment from him. He did well there and was brought into the Arsenal first teamas a winger. Before his arrival, he won the U/20 world cup playing in central midfield for England. He has played in central midfield for a lot of his latter development years and even made his first team debut alongside Gedion Zelalem in the Champions League as a DM, with both playing well.
However, his first team appearances have been in the fullback areas as cover. With only a handful of games in the DM position. The fullback positions are very hard to play in if you wish to show off your technical abilities, unless you play like Marcelo who is a natural in that position. Out wide, the pitch is cut in half and fullbacks rarely underlay which meant his movement is restricted and his other abilities are blocked. His touch as well is less secure because he looks to do more than is necessary in those wide areas and since he can’t cut in on the right, his first touch on his right to open up the pitch is closed. That’s why he has played better as a left back than as a right back, because as a left back, he has two ways that he can go, down the line or inside. As a right back, he only has the line to utilise and one two’s with Ozil because Pepe isn’t really a combination player. He looked so composed on the left and sometimes even over confident because he had more room to naturally move in, while on the rightcoming inside requires a change in body shape that is awkward and leads to him struggling to show his natural ability on the ball.
He is a very good player on the ball if given the room. He has the ability to beat players with his burst of pace, he cuts to the right very well and can be a very good drifting to the left half space to open up the pitch onto his right, he has the ability to glide past players in the middle more easily than the faster opposition players out wide. Think of him pushing the ball ahead of Jack Cork instead of Dwight McNeil. He will also be able to use his first touch to open up the pitch on either side.
He has never gotten the chance to show what he is capable of in central positions and also not gotten the chance to acclimatise to the pace of the League in those areas, what decisions are right in the EPL for that role or the physical demands of the average EPL midfield battle. He might as well be a brand new player from the development trying to play in central midfield if and when he is placed there. His mistakes are to be expected, but with enough games, he will show what he showed in the development sides and the first team on occasions.
I also think he has it in him to play the DM role differently from most. A player like Ndidi is not that great on the ball and he definitely isn’t as good as AMN, he is just more experienced in the position and keeps things things simple. I don’t think AMN is as good defensively as Ndidi, but he has shown in the youth sides and some games for the first team in the “DM” role that he does have the ability to read play and with enough games, he can develop this ability further. His passing can sometimes be lackadaisical, but if you have played out wide a lot and you move into central areas where you have space on both sides, it is normal for a player to get naive and think he has more room and time than he actually has. AMN is not young in age anymore, but in the DM position, he is inexperienced.
I see him as a player that resembles Amadou Diawara of Roma, previously of Napoli. A mobile, composed DM who reads the game well in both phases and plays through the lines a lot. AMN’s ability to glide with the ball can give him enough room to play balls through the lines in a similar way. These types of players do not need an extensive passing range like Kalvin Phillips because they play in teams that aren’t as direct, but if there is room for a long pass and minimal pressure, I doubt he wouldn’t be able to pull it off.
I felt that our future midfield was going to be AMN sitting deep, with Chamberlain and Adelaide ahead of him. Those players were doubted in their natural positions too, but are now showing that it was a mistake to not trust in their natural gifts and their potential in those positions, off the strength of their limited games in those areas. It would be a bigger mistake to not try and maximize AMN’s potential after we dropped the ball on those other two.
I made a consious effort to watch Ozil play during our last match and i noticed that he rarely even tries to play the final pass again even when there are slight gaps . He rathers prefers to pass it back to the middle or lay it down the bye line for someone else to cross.
It would be interesting to compare his pass completion numers in the final third to see how they have evolved over the years. if this is true i expect the percentage to go up.
I think it happens in motor sports that has you grow older you become more risk averse eventually costing you speed/assists
fair point. you must also consider that mesut has tons of experience and recognizes those “gaps” as traps more readily than most. he sees an opponent attempting to bait mesut into making what looks like a great opportunity to pass into a gap that’s going to close. it’s a cat and mouse game and mesut is very good at it.
Great point JOSHUAD. Its there are also players who have that ability from a young age, and its called playmaking ability.
The ability to analyse in game situations and make the right decisions on the pitch. Sometimes a back pass isnt negative play or a sign of inability to progress the ball. For players with playmaking ability, there is thought into each and every action made on the pitch. It will not always be the right thing, but playmakers get it right far more often than players without the ability.
I usually use Ramsey and Ozil as examples to illustrate the difference. Ramsey was a very active and energetic player, but what dictated his play in attack the most was instinct. He did whatever came to mind and this is why Ramsey scored so many amazing and often improvised goals. Mesut on the other hand is very measured in what he does, his composure allows time to scan the pitch and then make the right action for the team.
That is why you rarely see Ozil play a through-ball to nobody, but Ramsey will drive with the ball and play a pass to nobody a lot. The active players look great but they lose the ball more and teams are taking advantage of this by setting traps for them. Pepe is similar to Ramsey, he hasn’t been helped by the team’s tactics that much, but he has been playing into traps because he plays with his head down.
The funny thing is that both need each other to truly thrive. Alexis and Ramsey with Ozil and Santi is an example.
thierry henry has a saying that i quote all the time. “do what the game asks you to do.” if a player is doing that, i have no complaints. mesut is doing what the game asks so i have no problem with him.
the main problem with arsenal is the same as it’s been for years; they lack a competent cdm. every summer, i declare that if arsenal don’t get a proper cdm, it doesn’t matter who they buy. incompetence at cdm means arsenal has to play a double-pivot with two in the #6 role, meaning they have no #8. it’s grossly inefficient.
mesut is trying to give arsenal a presence in the #8 role while still being a #10. likewise, lacazette is trying to help as a #10 while still being a #9. it’s a hard ask, playing two positions at the premier league level. gooners don’t seem to understand and appreciate how much hard work those two gentlemen do for the team. it’s not magic.
second, concerning mesut, if arsenal have no mobility in their attack, it doesn’t matter how creative he is. when have you ever seen pepe score a tap in at the back post? that’s because his mobility sucks. add to that, arsenal don’t have a #8 making runs either. lastly, arsenal players hold the ball too long. when mesut creates, it’s when the game is flowing, players are making runs, and the defense is breaking down. arsenal don’t do enough of that in their attack. mesut hasn’t lost the ability to create. his physical gifts will fail him far before his creativity does. like devlin alluded to, it’s arsenal and the way they play.
when i say that pepe’s mobility sucks, it’s not that his physical ability to move is bad but that his movement when he doesn’t have the ball is poor. it’s a major minus to his game. the shameful bit is that if he’d been properly coached to link play as well as play with the ball, he could be as good as neymar or messi. seriously, this kid has everything else. unfortunately, he played for coaches that were more interested in dickriding his talent and less interested in developing him as a player.
To this tactical analysis I’d add that while Ozil obviously has lovely technique, his real stellar attribute is speed of thought and vision. He sees and executes passes before anyone else. But for that to give him an advantage, the game needs to be moving at a certain pace, so that with one pass or move he can take it beyond the opposition’s ability to react or set up. Right now the players around him are toiling, dwelling on the ball, or hesitating with their runs, so even if he makes a good pass or gets in a good position to receive the ball between the lines and do some damage, the opposition has time to read the situation and adjust. This nullifies his main weapon.
Adding to that Greg, a clear example is the recent away league games against Burnely, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and the home game against Sheffield.
Teams have recognized that for Ozil to play, he needs space in certain areas which can be created by his teammates making more runs (opening and decoy runs) and to move the ball faster. So all they have to do is block the passing lanes to Mesut and Arsenal are done for as an attacking threat.
Shutting Ozil down and pressing the defence means that there is no danger of dangerous passes or long balls in behind them. It also means Martinelli, Pepe, Auba and Laca get the ball in non-threatening areas and will be forced to cover almost half the pitch to even pose a threat to goal. With Laca, Auba, Martinelli or Eddie upfront, we do not even have the long ball and hold up option that we had with Giroud.
Arteta will have to find a new way for this side to attack without Ozil, but more playmakers are needed in this team for us to be more dominant.
I agree with this 100%.
If we only bought a competent DMFer this summer who doesn’t need a minder or a hand-maiden alongside him to be effective (think Gilberto) we would look a whole lot better. I do think either AMN or Willock or both might become an effective number 8. I don’t see another ’10’ in the squad but ESR and I don’t see an alternative DMFer to Torreira who seems short in all senses of the word.
The problem is that we paid £30m for Torreira two years ago. The more I look at these signings lately the more they look like stats-driven signings. And the more these stats-driven signings continue to underwhelm (Pepe, Torreira) the less sure I am of the stats!
Pepe and Torreira both look like incredibly good signings on paper, and even from what I saw of these players in their other leagues they looked good but man they have really struggled to adapt to the premier League. And we’ve spent an awful lot of money on them.
That’s true but on the basis of Torreira’s performances for Uruguay and in Italy (the reasons we bought him, if only through the stats), he’s potentially a good player and if MA8 decides he can’t cope in the PL we should be able to recoup our outlay from Italy or Spain if we can find an upgrade. At least (without a direct quote though) it appears that MA8 is prioritising the correct areas of the pitch in the next window: an 8, a 10 and a CB (presumably over and above Saliba). That suggests he may believe he can make Torreira effective as DMF.
Lots of interesting points on both sides. It’s noticeable that the mere mention of Mesut Ozil on this website is almost guaranteed to bring posters out and onto their keyboards. Is he really that important? Quite a few argue that if only we could move certain players around and adopt different tactics, then we’d somehow “get the best out of him”. Very unlikely and at age 31 and what exactly is the point?
Apart from anything else, it’s “putting the cart before the horse”. Successful teams decide how they want to play and recruit players that can do whatever is required of them. Not the other way round. Witness any of the lower stature teams that we find impossible to beat. We’re a team of square pegs sitting in round holes.
We’ve had “star” players in the past, who for one reason or another couldn’t really produce for the team. Charlie Nicholas springs to mind.
At the end of the day, you let them go and move on.
You just have to accept that you’ll never be successful with them.
Wenger was playing 5 at the back at the end. So sad. But we never replaced Santi. It all hinges on getting a player who can retain and pass the ball in the engine room. Cesc/Arteta/Santi role.
I believe that sometimes we over think football strategy and tactics and we outsmart ourselves. I realize there are subtle things which happen on the pitch that some observers and many fans don’t really see however if our goal is to search for subtle things we sometimes miss the big white elephant standing in the room.
Ozil’s number #1 job is to see openings and execute passes to dangerous areas to set up relatively high percentage shots for his teammates. His ability to do that in his earlier years is what made him a special player and IMO its exactly what Arsenal needs from him. During the last 2 years since he signed the big contract Mesut has played with one of the worlds top 10 strikers. During that time he only has 4 total PL assists but if he had passed the ball just 1 time in every 2 games to Auba in a dangerous position he probably would have had low teens in assists instead of just 4. Talking about heat maps is interesting blog fodder but the bottom line is if Mesut still had the same vision and ability to execute those passes then he would be doing it every once in a while but he is no longer making those passes. The admittedly simplistic but logical assumption is the vision to see openings and execute those passes has faded
are you suggesting that ozil has lost the ability to create? nuts! creativity doesn’t fade at 31 years old. it doesn’t even fade at 61. mesut’s ability to physically play football professionally will fade far before his ability to be creative. tom brady isn’t playing poorly because of his faded creativity. it’s because he’s old and his body is failing him. likewise, it’s because of the poor route-running of his novice receivers this past season. i could think of a half-dozen reasons before i even begin to consider brady’s ability to be creative has failed and he’s 11-years older than mesut.
you have this “ockham’s razor” approach to all things mesut, which is fine. it’s just sometimes your approach seems naive. there’s so much more to football that you seem to fail to recognize which makes many of your arguments sometimes frustrating to others on this forum. you may be new to the game. you may be a 14-year old kid who’s a brilliant statistical genius making arguments against all things statistical (ala 7amkickoff) as a pet project. you may be an 84-year old lady who’s only recently developed a love for the game because you thought arsene wenger was the sexiest man you’ve ever seen.
i don’t care what your story is. i simply challenge you to consider there may be a thought process you missed. the beauty of this forum is we don’t all come here thinking we know it all but that we all look to learn new things from one another. one thing i’d like you to consider for mesut’s diminishing productivity (which you continually remind us of) is the why. for the sake of argument, assume he hasn’t lost the ability to create. what else would cause his number to go down? what’s different from the arsenal he joined to the arsenal he plays for now? what’s different about players as they pass age 30? etc. then introduce a new point of view. you’re beginning to sound like a broken record.
Seems often times we see players’ performance through the lens of our own preconceived notions.
Arsenal Truth- a blogger who gives player ratings after each game rated Ozil at 4 and said “his passing was $hit then got bullied out of the game”
An opinion shared by many btw.
Let’s see then shall we.
Here’s Ozil’s contributions in the first half of Burnley match.
1. On 45 seconds , a 15 yard ball from Bellerin after running into space in our defensive third, instant control and turn, a perfect 10 yard square pass to Guen on his right foot.
Difficulty lever – 3,
Execution- 10
Best option picked- yes
2. Minute 1:05 , same Arsenal possession, a 30 yard ball from Mustafi to around the center circle, quick control while already on a turn, a ten yard run up the pitch and a 30 yard diagonal pass to Auba in space on the left.
Difficulty level- 6
Execution-10
Best option picked – yes
3. Min 2:10
A 15 yard release pass from Xhaka from top of the box , a quick turn and instant control, a 15 yard up the pitch pass to Martinelli in his stride.
Difficulty level -4
Execution -10
Best option picked- yes
4. Minute 2:25
A five yard ball from Martinelli in a crowd, one touch 12 yard pass back to Bellerin.
Difficulty level-3
Execution-10
Best option picked- yes
5. Min 3:10
From a short corner , a12 yard ball to Laca, a one touch return to Ozil and another one touch 12 yard ball to Xhaka.
Difficulty level-3
Execution -10
Best option picked- not sure , but looked like a preordained Arteta play to mix it up from set pieces.
6.Min 4:46
A free kick from deep on the left wing after the Saka foul, a lefty 25 yard curler into danger area.
Difficulty-3
Execution-6 ( not deep enough)
Best option picked- probably
7.Min 6:13
A 15 yard ball from Bellerin on the right at around center circle, instant control and turn , a 15 yard run up the pitch while scanning his options , a 15 yard pass to Auba right at the top of the box
Difficulty level-5
Execution -10
Best option picked- the only other option was Martinelli on the right wing but not necessarily better.
8.Min 7:14
From a Bellerin throw in , a 10 yard return ball to Bellerin
Difficulty-4
Execution-4 ( ball was bouncy )
Best option picked- yes
9.Min 8:27
A 20 yard pass from Guen from top of the box, good control and run up the pitch into Burnley half.
A nothing 10 yard pass to Auba , one touch return, another nothing 10 yard square ball to Xhaka.
Difficulty-3
Execution-10
Best option picked- for a pass, probably but this is where Ozil shortcomings come into focus.
A KDB or Grealish type player would never lay this ball off under the circumstances but rather drive it right into the danger area attracting double coverage and freeing up one of the forwards.
That’s not Ozil though, it never was.
10. Min 11:50
A 35 yard lofted ball from Leno on the right side, a cushioned 12 yard square header to Xhaka,
Difficulty-5
Execution:10
Best option picked- yes
11.Min 12:01
Short bouncy pass from Xhaka on the right , good control , a shoulder shimmy and a ten yard back pass to Xhaka.
Difficulty-3
Execution -10
Best option picked- for a pass , yes.
This is pretty much how the rest of the first half went but I doubt anyone here has enough patience to continue reading through this so I’m gonna stop there.
My point is this : if you’re gonna say Ozil lacks physicality and isn’t robust enough for the PL , and for the wages he’s earning Arsenal don’t get enough return, then you won’t get any pushback from me.
But if you’re saying his ability to recognize good runs and his final ball isn’t good enough, then I’m sorry but that bs.
Man that is insanely detailed.
I love it.
Josh
To suggest that a players vision to see openings and then the ability to make the split second pass to exploit those openings does not fade at a certain age in all players is nuts and it goes against hundreds of years of world history in football. I challenge you to consider that you might be so caught up in search for tiny details that you sometimes miss the big picture.
Tom
If Ozil was making so many high level plays against Burnley then why did the manager sub him off when we clearly needed someone to give us a spark or create something that would help us score a goal. If the skills and the passing ability is still so excellent then why hasn’t he used that skill to make and occasional pass to Auba around the penalty box that could have been turned into goal during the last 2 years? Creating those sort of opportunities is supposed to be his job. No?
Bill
I never said Ozil was making high level plays.
What I said was he was making all the RIGHT PLAYS with high degree of accuracy.
Some were easier than others.
Sometimes you can make all the right passes and still be ineffective.
That’s why he got subbed.
i’m not caught up in the details, bob. a player’s vision may fade, eventually, but not at 31. it might happen when they’re 71 and they’re aarp medicare supplemental vision pack goes into affect. i’m nearly 20 years older than mesut and it’s not my brain that fails me, it’s my body. that’s why footballers retire.
a couple of weeks ago, van persie played in a testimonial and vincent kompany tried to get rvp to come out of retirement, convinced he was still good enough to play at the top level. van persie said no because after that game, he could barely get out of bed the next day, not because his brain was bad.
You hear players in every sport say that one of the first things that happen when they get past their prime is the instincts and ability to recognize situations instantly diminishes and the plays they used to make happened almost automatically stop happening. Professional golfers say the first thing that goes is often their putting. That 6th sense that helped them recognize the break in the green and the proper speed fades away.
Dude Mesut is 31, not in his sixties. There is no mythical drop at 30. Pirlo became even better in his latter years as a playmaker and his ability to pick passes grew. There are examples all around football where playmakers get better in their 30s instead of dropping. Their physical gifts will diminish, but not fall off a cliff. This isn’t FIFA man, be realistic and stop using age to justify your point of view when Zlatan at 38 has just revitalised AC Milan. In tennis, Nadal is an example of a physical player who used his power a lot and isn’t as dominant anymore, while Federer is thriving on his technique now more than ever.
Mesut is an imperfect player. He has some obvious flaws, but because you have focused so much on those flaws you are confused as to what strengths of his could he be under-utilizing. My advice, find out what he has been consistently good at, what helped him do those things consistently, and watch him now to see what he is no longer bringing to the team and what the team is also no longer bringing to him.
maybe in golf but i’ve never heard that in any sport that is typically reserved for relatively young athletes.
We get it Bill. You think Mesut’s a wash and done. I will respectfully disagree even though I do think that Burnley wasnt a great game for him, especially after Granit was moved moved midfield.
I’m going to trust Mikel in that right now, we have no better option available for that position. There is still too much to play for in this season to start experimenting full time with Willock or others if we are serious about getting a good thing going in time for the FA Cup and Europa league challenges ahead. Plus I would expect we still want to finish as high as possible.
bill, i’ve considered your idea but the suggestion that a 31-year old has lost the ability to think (creativity is a cognitive skill) before his physical gifts diminish is a strange theory. in fact, i can’t even call it a theory because you never back up your ideas with any tangible evidence that we can plainly see. your only reference is the numbers. however, when we watch mesut play, there’s nothing tangible to support your idea that he’s lost the ability to create. in fact, his play suggests he still has it.
i’m going to say something that may sound condescending but it’s an effort to showcase how your argument sounds. imagine a kid doing a science project where he takes an ice cube from a freezer and puts it in a beaker. after ten minutes, he notes that the solid properties from the ice are diminished a certain percentage. this continues until the ice cube is completely in liquid form. the hypothesis the kid suggests is that this particular ice cube has lost it’s ability to present in the solid phase. this is a true observation but the kid isn’t respecting the situation: it’s 70 degrees in the room; too much thermal energy in the ambient air for the water to present in the solid phase.
please understand that when you make an accusation, you have to support it with qualifiable evidence that we can clearly see in order for your argument/theory to be legitimate. i’ve heard many people say it many times over the past year or so to you.
I really enjoyed this piece Tim. You illustrate perfectly what happens at the convergence of a budding analytics movement in football and the hardwired emotional responses of football fans everywhere that are too often disguised in hyper-rational arguments. I’ve been there and done that more than I can count.
The central issue here is not really Ozil (despite all the back and forth above!) but the structure and function in Arsenal’s midfield. My anecdotal sense when watching Arsenal last season was that Aaron Ramsey was the piece that made it work if it was going to work at all. He was able to bring that magic ingredient of connecting the defense and the attack that no other midfielder we’ve had since Cazorla and Fabregas before him could do, and he did it with his constant movement, outstanding technique and ability to drop into pockets or run into space behind the defenders, thus keeping them off balance. Guendouzi tries to do the things Ramsey did but just looks like he gets distracted and drawn into the wrong positions much too often. Torreira tried his best but despite his past life as a winger, he’s not suited to building attacks. We’ve discussed Xhaka ad nauseum. The stark fact is he’s been a constant under three different managers and years of dysfunction in midfield. Whether that’s his fault or not has been a constant source of debate, but it’s hard to argue that he has brought balance to Arsenal’s midfield force.
It seems like Arteta’s answer is to put the entire team on the front foot, pin opponents into their own half, dominate possession and exploit the half spaces over and over again. I love that approach and I think it will work better than Emery’s half-arsed counterattacking style but I worry that Arsenal do not have the players to play like that. Wenger used to play that sort of game, choking opponents into their own half, and he loved having two number 10’s across the front, players who could come inside and combine delicately with the lone striker and midfield; Hleb, Rosicky, Pires, Nasri, etc. He would then use an inside forward with searing speed, someone like Overmars or Walcott on the other flank to run into the half spaces, and the fullbacks provided the width.
The team needs that second creative type of player to knit moves together in advanced positions. When we have Pepe on one flank and Auba on the other, it means there are two players in the final 3rd who want to receive the ball on the move instead of combining and knitting passing moves together. Pepe in particular for as good as he is on the move has shown very poor aptitude to building play. Ozil, even at 100% form and confidence, can’t make souffle out of brownies. Not that Pepe and Auba are poor players, far from it, but they are less than ideal partners in the buildup phase. Lacazette helps but he has been in poor form and gets abused physically by bigger defenders. Better balance would be to play a hard-working but creative type of player on one flank and one of Pepe or Auba on the other with Lacazette leading the line and Ozil in the hole. I really cannot see how you can fit Pepe and Auba in the same team with the style Arteta wants. The logical conclusion here is that Aubameyang, by virtue of his expiring contract, our purchase of Pepe, the rise of Martinelli and Nelson, and the style Arteta wants to play, is the odd man out this summer. In his place, I predict we’ll see the club invest in a highly technical attacking midfielder.
i agree with nearly all of your comment, especially about our giving tim good thoughts on ozil for his arseblog post. where i disagree with you is where you say that pepe’s movement off the ball is good. i think his movement is awful. in fact, i think his ability to link play is downright atrocious. he relies exclusively on his talent, which is exceptional. however, to be a top player, he’ll have to prove that he can link play. the upside is that if pepe develops his link up play (and his right foot), he can be about as good as neymar or messi, such is his talent.
“On the move” meaning once he’s received the ball and is running at defenders. I agree his movement into space off the ball is bad.
I like your points Dr. Especially acknowledging that to play front footed football means having more of a certain type of player. I feel like more technical players like those you mentioned are needed to pass and probe in the final third, and keep the opposition focused on defending than attacking.
Last season we had those players in Iwobi, Mkhi, Ozil and to a lesser point Ramsey. This season we seem to have gone the complete opposite way in having Martinelli, Pepe and Aubameyang out wide. Like you Dr, I feel like more balance is needed.
I am surprised that you think Pepe has great movement. I am assuming you are talking about the kind of movement that Walcott, Aubameyang, Welbeck, Perez, Camobell and Gervinho used to make at their best. I have felt that Pepe is a player who prefers the ball to be played to his feet so that he can dribble and find space to shoot. I felt like that was the reason Reiss Nelson was playing ahead of him before the injury. Reiss is more well rounded in that he can play with back to goal, play combinations and make Walcott-esque runs in behind as well.
What I would like to know, from you and JOSHUAD, is what is the right type of midfield composition or midfield partner for a player like Guendouzi?
Of the options we have available now I like the balance of Xhaka, Torreira and Willock, but there is no perfect solution. Willock has been sacrificed so we can accommodate Ozil and that’s fair. I really like Willock’s longer term potential as a physically robust link player who can carry the ball out of defense but his technique and use of space haven’t matured yet and like too many on the team right now his ability to build play against a patient defense is lacking. Putting him and Ozil in the same team would require another change of system that I think would do more harm than good at this point. Arteta is correctly prioritizing Ozil in the current system given the type of football he wants to play.
I don’t know if Guendouzi is the future of Arsenal’s midfield. Arteta seems to like Xhaka and Torreira and they have both flourished under him. I think the easier solution lies further forward with the balance of creativity and runners in the final third. When the team scores goals it makes everything else so much easier.
Sometimes you guys think like a movie critical who is so intent on proving how smart he is by finding a brilliant facial expression or vocal intonation from an actor he likes or something interesting that a director he likes does but he completely misses the fact the movie was utterly boring and had zero entertainment value.
Bill, I come here to learn from others and to put my two cents in as well. I have been pointed into new facets of play that I didn’t understand, had debates with many here and shared my love for this club in this section. So many different points that show an appreciation for the entertainment factor, as well as the tactical and technical subtleties of anything to do with Arsenal. The points made by most here have helped me when I coach my youth sides (trying my best to play Wengerball) and make me proud to be in touch with most here.
From you Bill, I wish I could say I learn something or that I am able to follow what you say, but it’s usually too simplistic and so lacking in context that it baffles me.
I get that tactics and in depth analysis isn’t your thing, and what you see is what you get. This site is welcoming to everyone, but remeber that you are on the site of a stats obsessed man in Tim, so the depth of analysis on this site will always go against how you view things, so don’t act surprised at all the detail.
Bill, instead of trying different analogies to prove your point I think you’d be better served if you actually gave real examples of plays where Ozil failed to spot a good run or his final pass was bad.
You won’t find many.
I’ve criticized Ozil plenty for different things but you seem hell-bent on taking away from him the very few things he’s actually still very good at.
It reeks of agenda.
Btw, the first thing to go in professional football ( soccer)once you get on the wrong side of 30 is the recovery time.
bill, i feel like you’re getting upset. no one is here to upset you. we know how you feel about ozil but when i watch him play, i can’t see what you see. i want to see it and i’m desperately searching for it but it’s not readily visible. can you tell us what facet of his game supports your idea that he’s lost the ability to create?
you’re only stating dwindling statistics which is clear to all of us but that doesn’t legitimize your point. you’re not telling us specifics to consider when we watch him play. if you can’t do that, you can’t legitimize your stance that his vision/creativity is worsening and that’s what we’re asking…for your position to be legit.
conventional wisdom suggests a player’s field vision tends to improves with experience, not worsen. players like mesut and cesc are outliers because as teenagers they already displayed exceptional vision and awareness typically reserved for far more experienced campaigners. unless mesut has some type of benjamin button thing going on, you have to give us some tangible quality that proves your point…that is if you want your point to be taken seriously.
Devlin
The age where players skills start to fade and the reactions slow down is different for every player. Ronaldinho lost it in the mid 20’s. The ability of Alexis Sanche and Ozil to influence the game both start to fade right around age 30. Oliver Giroud lost his ability to score goals around age 30.
None of the players you mentioned play Ozil’s position, nor does their game even remotely resembles his.
Pointless.
One of the more obvious things that stand out while reviewing Arsenal game – once the emotions and the match day hype have died down – is how much superior Ozil’s passing game to everyone else’s really is.
Even a simple ten yard ball from Ozil tends to always be on the receiver’s stronger foot, or in his stride, or just the right distance up the pitch to run onto so less effort is needed to control it.
Or how he always runs with the ball with his head up and never holds onto it for longer than needed.
These are thing Ozil’s critics hate seeing mentioned and they usually throw around derogatory terms like” Ozilogist” at folks who notice them, usually right after bringing up his wages.
It’s all good though, we all have our favorites.
I’m not a huge Ozil fan, in part, because it’s just too easy for too many PL clubs to bully and render him ineffective. While it always takes the whole Arsenal team to have a good game for Ozil to shine.
Some people just put too much blame one player, mainly because his agent took advantage of circumstances and got him a sweet deal at a time when Arsenal needed a PR boost.